Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Archive for 2012

United Welfare States of America: In 2011 Nearly Half The Population Received Some Form Of Government Benefit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While politicians may debate whether or not America is the most “generous” (with other generations’ money of course) socialist welfare state in the history of mankind, the undoctored numbers make the affirmative case quite clear and without any chance for confusion. The single most disturbing statistic: in 2011 nearly half of the population lived in a household that receives some form of government benefit, which in turn accounted for 65% of total federal spending, or $2.5 trillion, and amount to 15% of GDP. And yet some people out there still think these people, long since indoctrinated to do little but mooch off the welfare state (which will continue subsidizing its existence so long as debt rates are so low that the government can issue trillions each year without fears of consequences) will halt their iTunes purchases, will voluntarily stop subsisting on the government’s teat, or will rebel against a government which is their only source of income? Why? Especially since something tells us that there will be a peculiar overlap between this 50% and the 50% of Americans that pay zero taxes.

Of course, this chart should be observed in conjunction with the “What is this?” chart we presented two days ago from Morgan Stanley which pretty much explains everything about the US “economy”

From John Lohman





Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/22/2012

Here is the virtual portfolio weekend update. Basically a recap of the positions and some notes about the trades. As usual, I’ll post the previous week’s P&L for comparison. Not the greatest of week in general!

AA Money

Only transaction last week as we bought back the AA Feb 9 puts on Tuesday for close to a 70% profit. The idea is to sell another set of put as soon as we get a chance.

Previous week P&L – $400.00

We lost some ground this week, but we’ll keep on selling premium!

FAS Money

We also lost some ground in this virtual portfolio, but we have sold plenty of premium for the coming week. A little correction would go a long way to help! On Wednesday we sold the FAS Feb 72 puts (already good for 50%), on Thursday we added the Jan4 78 calls and on Friday we had to roll the Jan 78 puts to the Jan 80 puts. We were hoping for these ones to expire worthless on Friday, but a late stick killed that hope.

Previous week P&L – $4372.00

IWM Money

Not the best of week either here… As with the other portfolios we were a tad bearish with more calls sold. On Wednesday we sold the TNA Feb 47 puts (already up 40%) and on Thursday we rolled the TNA Jan 46 calls to the Jan4 49 calls.

Previous week P&L – $2046.00

As with the FAS Money portfolio, plenty of premium sold to get us back on track.

FAS Strangle Experiment

One bad move on Friday almost wiped out the entire week’s profit. There might be 2 lessons learned from that:

1) Every Friday will be different –  the week before, patience was rewarded, this week, a late stick punished it.
2) Better to take the profits when we can.

I also tried to time the entries better and it did help earlier this week but I still need to work on that.

Previous week P&L – $10,190.00

We start the week with over $1 of premium sold. All we need is a move to the downside to make up the loss.

25KP Virtual Portfolio

I’ll let Phil comment any of the trades. Here is a recap of the positions.

The SQQQ Jan calls expired worthless on Friday.

Apple 50k Virtual Portfolio

I’ll let lflan add his…
continue reading





Activism-In-Motion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After months of increasingly aggressive shareholder activism, the long-standing co-CEOs (Balisillie and Lazaridis) of the struggling Blackberry maker have resigned as the former COO takes over as CEO and former-exchange executive takes over as chairperson.

  • RESEARCH IN MOTION CO-CEOS/CHAIRMEN QUIT POSTS – BBG
  • RIM NAMES BARBARA STYMIEST INDEPENDENT BOARD CHAIRMAN – BBG
  • RESEARCH IN MOTION NAMES THORSTEN HEINS PRESIDENT, CEO – BBG

Research In Motion has clearly morphed into Activism-in-Motion as the Globe and Mail reports: “The catalyst for change appears to have been the entry of a new personality: reserved but revered investor Prem Watsa, the CEO of Fairfax Financial. Mr. Watsa, who has been called Canada’s Warren Buffett.While chatter appears to be that change-is-good, G&M go on to note, “Critics of the company’s performance may not be immediately impressed by
a management shakeup that involves so little fresh blood.” as the Playbook fiasco is fresh in many people’s minds but perhaps new CEO’s Heins view that “We are not at a point where we try to define a strategy, that’s done” will not hearten those looking for real change.

The Globe And Mail – Jim Balsillie, Mike Lazaridis out, Thorsten Heins in as new RIM CEO

Research in Motion leaders Jim Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis are stepping down as executives and co-chairmen of the board of directors in the the biggest shake-up in the 27-year history of the Waterloo, Ont.-based startup turned global giant. The sudden move follows a year of decline in which RIM lost three-quarters of its market value, botched the launch of its PlayBook tablet and watched rivals eat into its market share for smartphones.

 

The new chief executive of RIM will be Thorsten Heins – a man they recruited five years ago who came to be a trusted advisor and their hand-picked successor. Calls for radical change at the company have been mounting in recent months. Its BlackBerry device blazed the trail for smartphones and has 75 million active subscribers around the world, but RIM has struggled of late with dwindling market share and fierce competition from Apple Inc.’s iPhone and an array of devices running Google Inc.’s Android operating system.

 

The catalyst for change appears to have been the entry of a new personality:


continue reading





UPDATE: New Research in Motion Vice Chairman Lazaridis to Purchase $50M of RIMM Shares

Courtesy of Benzinga.


For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, Value Investor, and Stocks Under $5.





The End is the Beginning is the End

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth 

Tyne & Wear Archives and Museums Just watch me June 9 1902
Fron album of prisoners brought before the North Shields Police Court in England between 1902 and 1916.

Time has stopped before us 
The sky cannot ignore us 
No one can separate us 
For we are all that is left 
The echo bounces off me 
The shadow lost beside me 
There's no more need to pretend 
Cause now I can begin again."

Smashing Pumpkins, The Beginning is the End is the Beginning

Ashvin Pandurangi: The latest revolution of the Euro Crisis Cycle has brought us back to talks of restructuring Greek sovereign debt through "Private Sector Involvement" (PSI), which are somehow taking place in a Universe where debt restructuring is not allowed to be confused with "debt default" or "bankruptcy". On Friday January 20, the IIF (representing some of Greece’s creditors) and the Greek government announced that they had finally reached an "agreement" on the basic structure of the restructuring (or the basic restructuring of the structure?).  

Here’s the live blog update from The Guardian on Friday, which really stood out to me:

A framework of the deal — the basic structure of the bond swap that the Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos wants to present at Monday's eurogroup meeting — has been accepted by both sides, "put in place" and I understand committed to paper. 

But it would also seem that other aspects of the agreement – be them legal, technical or matters of substance — remain unresolved and will be discussed at negotiations that resume at 7:30pm local time [6.30 GMT] and look set to continue over the weekend. 

If Greece's massive €360 bn debt load is to be made manageable much will depend "on the inter-related role of all the interests at stake" insiders say. Even if a decisive agreement is reached, the proposal will have to be put to technocrats — given the complexity of the deal — and they could very likely change it again. 

"The outline won't be the end of the beginning but the beginning of the end," said another source again requesting blanket anonymity because of the delicacy of the talks.

That’s how these anonymous blankets, with their linear mindsets and scripts, really think about the process and justify the charade to everyone else who looks…
continue reading





Australia Roundup: Oceanfront Homes for 65% Off; Chain Sales and Contingent Offers; Retailers Brace for More Job Cuts; Cusp of a White-Collar Recession

Australia Roundup: Oceanfront Homes for 65% Off; Chain Sales and Contingent Offers; Retailers Brace for More Job Cuts; Cusp of a White-Collar Recess

Courtesy of Mish

Reader "Brisbane Bear" from down under sent potpourri of links on the dwindling prospects for the Australian economy. 

Oceanfront Homes for 65% Off

In apples, rot starts at the periphery and spreads to the core. In real estate, rot starts in condos and vacation homes, then slowly encompasses city after city.

Please consider Investors snap up coastal property bargains in Queensland.

While prices soar in some coastal towns close to mining centres, astute buyers are managing to secure ocean- front homes in traditional tourist locations for $500,000 or more off peak prices as vendors cave after years of trying to sell.

One buyer scored an oceanfront unit in a marina development at Cardwell, halfway between Cairns and Townsville, for $157,000 – almost $300,000 less than it sold for in 2006. The unit had been on the market for three years.

A penthouse with ocean views in the same development sold for $570,000 less than its 2007 sales price.

RP Data senior analyst Cameron Kusher said buyers of the most affordable seaside holiday homes needed to be prepared for a long commute. But he said coastal market values had fallen across Queensland, meaning bargains could even be found in popular locations.

Chain Sales and Contingent Offers

When all else fails, buyers accept any offer they can get including contingent sales as noted by The Age in Risky ride on the vendor-go-round.

SELLING a home is stressful at the best of times. Failing to sell at auction in the midst of a property downturn can be its own kind of nightmare.

But imagine if it turned out that the only way to sell your home depended on the buyer having to sell theirs first.

It is a scenario Gavin and Verity Carson never considered when their Abbotsford terrace house went to auction and was passed in.

After later negotiations with a bidder broke down, they were left at a loss about what to do next. Looming was the threat of a lengthy wait in the private sale market, already flooded with thousands of unsold homes.

"All the people that had been interested were no longer interested – we had to really start the campaign


continue reading





Interactive Visual History Of Financial Crises Since 1810 – Note Where The Fed Arrives

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As the name implies. What is funny is how only after the advent of the Federal Reserve in 1913 did Financial crises expose increasingly more of world GDP to a crisis state. But at least the Fed and ECB tell us all they do is enforce price stabeeletee. Could they be lying!? We thought it was all the gold standard’s fault for causing unprecedented economic volatility… Guess not. From History Shots: “The giant wave in the top section of the graphic depicts the percentage of world GDP by region in crisis during the 200 year period. It includes the four major financial crisis types (sovereign default, banking, currency, and inflation) along with stock market crashes. The bottom section provides a detailed chart of all sovereign defaults by country, region and year. It shows the repeating nature of sovereign default, a central theme of Reinhart and Rogoff’s book.”

Full chronology after the jump.

Source: HistoryShots





Weekly Recap And Key Events In The Coming Week

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

By way of Goldman Sachs

The week past was one of improving sentiment for risky assets. The positive stream of data surprises out of the US continued with a sharp drop in initial jobless claims. The less positive Philly Fed print did not shake markets to a substantial extent. Optimism in Eurozone extended as well with the newsflow over the Greek PSI. Up until Friday (January 20) it appeared increasingly likely that an agreement could be imminent. However, on Saturday talks came once again to a stalemate due to ongoing disagreement over the level of sustainable coupons for the new Greek bonds.
This implies that the PSI deal will not be ready for approval during the European finance ministers meeting, starting on Monday. The market will look for any signal on the pace of discussions over the ESM pre-funding details and the fiscal compact. Flash PMIs in the Eurozone and the IFO will also be key to watch given market fears over the activity impact of tight fiscal policy linked to the Eurozone fiscal crisis.

Attention will likely shift to the US this week. Q4 GDP will likely exceed 3% mostly due to one-off drivers and less so due a genuine pick-up in final demand in our view. The FOMC statement and press conference are unlikely to lead to a change in US monetary policy. However, we will be focusing on the publication of the FOMC participants’ views of appropriate policy (specifically the path for the federal funds rate and guidance for the size of the balance sheet going forward). In addition, President Obama will give his State of the Union speech Tuesday night.

Monday 23rd January:

Ecofin Meeting: The Greek PSI, the ESM pre-funding schedule will be among other issues in the agenda.

Also Interesting: Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan), Israel Monetary Policy Meeting (no change).

Tuesday 24th January:

Turkey Monetary Policy Meeting: We do not expect a change in the base rate but it will be interesting to assess the current CBRT thoughts on ongoing policy initiatives.

Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting: In response to currency risks, NBH is widely expected to raise interest rates by 50bp to 7.50%.

Euro-zone Flash Composite PMI (Jan): Consensus expects a print of 48.5, up from 48.3 in December.

Also Interesting: US Presidential State of the Union address,…
continue reading






Weekly Market Commentary: Another Good Week For Indices

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Nothing fancy for the week, just steady gains for indices.  These gains keep in play the rally from October. Market breadth continued to improve alongside index gains. Certain market breadth indicators are at declining resistance dating back to 2010, important tests, because breach these and the rallies will be well placed to continue for the next few weeks (if not months).

The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA is one such market breadth indicator at resistance. With 72% of stocks above this intermediate trend average it suggests the Nasdaq is only in the early phase of its rally (a couple of weeks ago the percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50%, was just above 50%).

Nasdaq Bullish Percents are above the 50% mark

And the Summation Index is above zero

These breadth indicators suggest there should be enough for the Nasdaq to break declining resistance (already breached for Small and Large Cap indices) and push on to new highs.

The Russell 2000 has made it to neckline resistance and it’s next big area of supply

The S&P managed resistance breaks in the parent index and supporting market breadth indices ($NYSI shown)

While resistance might stall things in the Nasdaq for a week or two, it should eventually follow the leads of the Russell 2000 and S&P.  Bulls maintain their edge and should be able to hold on by the end of the coming week.

——

Follow Me on Twitter


Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com.


continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Americans Supported and Inspired the Nazis

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

 

Preface:  I am a patriotic American who loves  my country. I was born here, and lived here my entire life.

So why do I frequently point out America's warts?  Because - as the Founding Fathers and Supreme Court judges have explained - we can only make America better if we honestly examine her shortcomings.  After all:

“Dissent is the highest form of patriotism.”

Only when Americans can honestly look at our weaknesses can we become stronger. If we fail to do so, history will repeat ...

While Americans rightly condemn the Nazis as monstrous peo...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Can the Eurozone Survive? Not in Its Current Form Says PIMCO; Mish Response

Courtesy of Mish.

Echoing statements I have made many times, PIMCO says the single currency area must become a "United States of Europe" in order to secure its future.

Please consider Eurozone can't survive in current form, says PIMCO.
The eurozone is "untenable" in its current form and cannot survive unless countries are prepared to cede sovereignty and become a "United States of Europe", the manager of the world's biggest bond fund has warned.

The Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) said that while the bloc was likely to stay together in the medium term, with Greece remaining in the eurozone, the single currency could not survive if countries did not move closer together.

Persistently weak gro...



more from Ilene

Chart School

Gann Angles on the Dow Jones Industrials - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

A trend lines requires 2 points to draw, and Gann Angle only requires 1 point, a huge difference. Something  is going to break soon!

Previous Post here

Why?

Simply that Gann Angle is not determined by price pivot points at the last price end, where as a trend line is. That is the beauty!

Price is still holding true to the blue 2x1 Gann Angle. This angle is the demand line, this is why we need to pay  attention to it.

As stated before .."As you can see price is now entering a pinch zone, it will bust out either way."... soon the fun will start.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not sh...



more from Chart School

Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Insider Scoop

Raymond James Downgrades Power Integrations To Market Perform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related POWI Benzinga's Top Downgrades Benzinga's Volume Movers

Analysts at Raymond James downgraded Power Integrations Inc. (NASDAQ: POWI) from Outperform to Market Perform and removed the price target of $57.00.

Power Integrations shares have dropped 18.42% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has surged 10.69% in the same period.

Power Integrations' shares fell 1.51% to $51.65 in pre-market trading.

Latest Ratings for POWI DateFirmActionFrom...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls retake the wheel, with a little help from their friends at the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale at Sabrient Systems

Well, it didn’t take long for the bulls to jump on their buying opportunity, with a little help from the bulls’ friend in the Fed. In fact, despite huge daily swings in the market averages driven by daily news regarding timing of interest rate hikes, the strength in the dollar, and oil prices, trading actually has been quite rational, honoring technical formations and support levels and dutifully selling overbought conditions and buying when oversold. Yes, the tried and true investing clichés continue to work -- “Don’t fight the Fed,” and “The trend is your friend.”

In this weekly update, I give my view of the cur...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March, 23rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin vs. Uber: Bitcoin Lovers Respond to Mish

Courtesy of Mish.

I recently commented that it would not surprise me if bitcoin plunged to $1.00. That was not a prediction, it was a comment.

Still, I still feel a collapse in bitcoin is likely.

For discussion, please see Cash Dinosaur: France Limits Cash Transactions to €1,000, Puts Restrictions on Gold; Bitcoin End Coming?

In response, reader Creighton writes ...

Hello Mish

While I'm not going to argue the point about the possibility that Bitcoin drops to $1, or less, (that could happen yet, but not for the reasons you propose) I felt it necessary to point out something you seem to have overlooked.

While it's likely that the US government watching Bitco...



more from Bitcoin

Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



more from Paul

Option Review

Cypress Semi Draws Bullish Option Plays

Bullish trades abound in Cypress Semiconductor options today, most notably a massive bull call spread initiated in the July expiry contracts. One strategist appears to have purchased 30,000 of the Jul 16.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.89 each and sold the same number of Jul 19.0 strike calls at a premium of $0.22 apiece. Net premium paid to put on the spread amounts to $0.67 per contract, thus establishing a breakeven share price of $16.67 on the trade. Cypress shares reached a 52-week high of $16.25 back on Friday, March 13th, and would need to rally 4.6% over the current level to exceed the breakeven point of $16.25. The spread generates maximum potential profits of $2.33 per contract in the event that CY shares surge more than 20% in the next four months to reach $19.00 by July expiration. Shar...



more from Caitlin

Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



more from Pharmboy

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

more from SWW

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>