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Free Money Thursday – ECB Votes to Keep Giving it Away

Image result for draghi free money

"My baby gives it up every day

My baby gives it, she gives it away

My baby gives it up every day


My baby She just gives it away" – Townshend

MORE FREE MONEY!!!

Not too surprising as that's the answer Goldman Sach's pet Central Banker, Mario Draghi, has for every situation but today's announcement from the ECB to hold rates steady AND continue pumping 60 BILLION Euros PER MONTH into the economy ($864Bn/yr) was more generous than expected in an economy that is closer to inflation than deflation with record-low unemployment and markets at all-time highs.  Is this really still not enough?  

The composite PMI is already over the ECB's 2% target and inflation in the Euro-zone has gone from 0% in 2015 to 0.5% last year and now is 1.5% and the ECB is bound by law to tighten if inflation goes over 2% so it seems like Draghi will only close that barn door long after the horses have bolted.  This is especially worrying as the only reason we're getting low inflation readings now in the ECB is because the Euro has gotten much stronger – up over 15% since April.

For many economists, the central bank has little choice but to slow buying next year — simply because it’ll soon run out of bonds. Holdings are scheduled to reach nearly 2.3 TRILLION Euros by the end of the year, equivalent to almost a quarter of the bloc’s annual output.  “The question is whether a shortage of bonds in some markets will turn into outright scarcity, and how best to address this problem,” said Marchel Alexandrovich, an economist at Jefferies in London.

Meanwhile, we're watching out for Irma as she heads towards Florida and, as we predicted for you in yesterday morning's PSW Report (only $3/day to have it delivered pre-market), oil topped out just under $49.50:

Generally, I expect strong bounces today but failing those will put us back in bearish mode and /TF is sill my favorite short (1,406), as is oil (/CL), at $49.50 if we hit it or below the $49 line with tight stops if we don't because tomrorrow's inventory report is likely to show a build in crude with all the refineries shut down (though there are a lot of stranded deliveries too) and next week will be worse and, if Irma misses the Gulf – then no way will enough oil production go off-line to even things out.  

As you can see, we're already up $1,000 this morning with 2 of our 4 contracts off the table and a stop on the rest at $48.75 to lock in the gains but I think we'll get a much better dip than this on the upcoming inventory report (so we're likely to get back in after a bounce).  Already, last night, the American Petroleum Institute showed a 2.8Mb build in crude and that included Saturday, 2 days after the hurricane hit Houston.  Gasoline was only down 2.5Mb – also disappointing.  We get the EIA report at 11 this morning – that's when we should see some fireworks in the energy patch.

Meanwhile, the Russell shorts were good for gains of $300 per contract as we retested 1,400 but, so far, it's holding.  Natural Gas (/NGZ7) was our biggest winner, with contracts flying from $3.185 to $3.225 and, at $420 per penny, per contract – that's $1,680 gained per contract gained on the day for those people smart enough to spend $3/day to read our reportsyou're welcome!  

Remember:  I can only tell you what the markets are likely to do and how to make money trading off those probabilities – the rest is up to you! 

Speaking of things that are up to you, you should also check out the trade ideas we gave you for Lowe's (LOW) and Generac (GNRC) in yesterday's morning report – both are popping already but have plenty of room left to run.  

We have a Live Trading Webinar this afternoon at 1pm where we'll review some Futures Trading Techniques as well as identify some new trade ideas but those of you who were able to catch my interview on Money Talk last night already got 3 brand new bullish trade ideas and a follow-up of our Trade of the Year (WPM) that can still make you another 200% in 16 months – just picking up our Members' leftovers:

We've started a new portfolio for the Money Talk viewers where we hope to turn $50,000 into $100,000 by next year.  No Futures trading, of course, just stocks and options.  Futures are just something to do while we wait for our nice, conservative options spreads to play out over time….

Speaking of Futures, I can't reconcile why the Dollar (/DX) is at 91.40 with the ECB on hold so I'm liking those contracts long.  No matter what BS Draghi spouts, the bottom line is he's done today but the Fed will meet on the 20th and they really can't be any looser so any rumor that they are going to tighten can give us a few points on the Dollar and, at $1,000 per point – that can be a nice winner.  

If you are Futures-challenged, you can use the Dollar ETF (UUP), which is at $23.75 this morning and you can buy the Sept $22.50 calls for $1.40 so just 0.15 of premium while a 2.5% move would be 0.60 so a gain of maybe 0.50 would be 35% if all goes well.  

This is a tricky play as Fisher (hawk) surprisingly quit the Fed yesterday and there are now 4 open seats and Yellen may be replaced as well, giving Donald J Trump complete control of our monetary policy with his picks – what could possibly go wrong?  Also, we have not one, not two but four Fed speakers this afternoon, presumably to prevent a panic over the release of the Money Supply and the Fed Balance Sheet at 4:30:

It's going to be an interesting day and we'll be analyzing what Mester has to say during our Webinar (1pm, EST) and hopefully coming up with some trade ideas to go along with it.  

Meanwhile, CASH!!! is still king and you can get a lot of it for your stocks so make sure you REALLY want to hold those winners through 20% corrections before letting them ride during what looks to be a very volatile month.  

 


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  1. GE's stock falls after J.P. Morgan gets even more bearish

    Font size: A | A | A

     

    8:15 AM ET 9/7/17 | MarketWatch

    Shares of General Electric Co. (GE) slumped 1.5% in premarket Thursday, after J.P. Morgan analyst Stephen Tusa reiterated his underweight rating on the industrial conglomerate, saying the outlook is even worse than he thought. While he has a $22 price target on the stock, which is 12% below Wednesday's closing price of $24.92, Tusa said he sees "something in the high teens" as an investable fair value for the shares. He said he believes GE is "tight on cash," but while the dividend appears safe "for now" he believes the share buyback program is "fungible." He said his more bearish view is "an adjustment to reality, not cyclical," as structural weakness in GE's power business, a less-than-expected bounce in oil and gas and transportation and a more GAAP approach to reporting numbers provides downside risk to earnings expectations. "Based on our standing [free cash flow] estimates and estimates for outflow from investing activities, GE is already below breakeven when it comes to funding the dividend with ongoing FCF, with compounding risk if fundamentals come in worse that expectations," Tusa wrote in a note to clients. The stock has tumbled 21% year to date, while the SPDR Industrial Select Sector ETF (XLI) has gained 9.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 10%. 

    -Tomi Kilgore; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com 



  2. Funny how most people in Congress are in favor of government spending these days!


  3. Good Morning.



  4. We are not the highest taxed country in the world – far from it:

    https://www.aei.org/publication/the-us-remains-a-low-tax-country-even-if-president-trump-keeps-oddly-saying-otherwise/

    If we collected the average OECD tax, we would have another $1T in tax revenues to do what we please with.


  5. Even the corporate tax system is flawed:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-05/the-incredible-shrinking-corporate-tax-bill

    One argument for reducing the corporate tax rate is that it's so high now that it distorts behavior, encouraging U.S. corporations to take on foreign identities, keep money parked overseas — or structure themselves as something other than C corporations. It is the only current U.S. tax of which I have heard an economist other than Arthur Laffer argue that it might be on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve, where reducing rates increases revenue. I doubt that is really the case, but the losses may not be huge and there is definitely an economic case to be made for cuts.

    What doesn't seem to make so much sense in this context is reducing the tax rates faced by owners of pass-through entities, which the current administration seems to favor. These are businesses that are already being exempted from the corporate tax, and their growth has cut sharply into corporate tax revenue. More than three-quarters of the benefits of such a tax cut would flow to households in the top 1 percent of the income distribution. It just doesn't add up.


  6. Good morning… Phil, RH up 38% at the open, looks like earnings last night were stellar! 


  7. Morning everyone!

    The link for today's webinar (1pm Eastern) is:

    http://philstockworld.enterthemeeting.com/m/J36YT6JT


  8. Good morning!

    Indexes failing hard and fast after that silly run-up in the Futures.  Same shorting spots as yesterday with 5,950 on /NQ my current favorite line.

    Dollar bucking like a bronco.

    GE/Jabob – Not that I expect it to sink in but:

    General Electric: Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

    Big Chart – Spitting Cobras are forming. Dow, SPX and NYSE all on 50 dmas so any failures there will be very bad indicators.  If RUT gets above, that's bullish and the 50 has come down to around the strong bounce line at 1,406 – so a lot to watch at that level.

    Good list, StJ.

    Taxes/StJ – And if we'd taxed at a normal rate, we wouldn't have a deficit at all.  We flushed our whole country down the Future to give the Corporations 8% off their taxes and Trump wants to Double Down.

    /KC popping again.

    RH/Learner – Home improvements for the Top 1% – that was easy money! 

    GPRO another one of my value sleepers taking off:

    • GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) shares up 14.6% premarket after announcing an updated Q3 forecast.
    • GoPro expects revenue to come in between $290M and $310M, which comes in at the high end of the previous guidance and mostly exceeds the $304.04M consensus estimate.
    • GoPro expects gross margin between 36% and 38% and to be profitable on a non-GAAP basis the quarter.
    • Press release
    • Correction: post updated to change headline wording
    • The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 52.6 from 53.3 last week.
    • State of the Economy index slipped to 53.9 from 54.4.
    • Personal Finance index went to 59.9 from 59.3.
    • Buying Climate index dropped to 44.1 from 46.1.
    • Q2 Productivity and Costs: +1.5% vs. +1.3% expected, 0.9% previous (revised).
    • Unit labor costs +0.2% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.6% previous.
    • Initial Jobless Claims +62K to 298K vs. 241K consensus, 236K prior (unrevised).
    • Continuous Claims:-5K at 1.940M vs. 1.945M.

    Buckingham sees hurricane impact hitting airlines into Q4

    • Buckingham Research warns that tourism to Florida and the Caribbean could be hurt this fall and winter due to the impact of Hurricane Irma.
    • The firm's negative outlook accounts for the forecast of even more Atlantic hurricanes to follow the Category 5 Irma bearing down on Florida and the Atlantic Coast. The potential for lasting damage exists in some key tourist destinations.
    • Airlines with the highest exposure to the Florida/Caribbean region are Delta (NYSE:DAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ:SAVE), JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) and American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL).
    • While airline stocks have traded lower over the last two weeks on the Harvey/Irma impact, Buckingham's assessment is that Q4 earnings will be clipped as well.
    • Source: Bloomberg
    • Related ETF: JETS.

    Google in final talks with HTC for smartphone unit?

    • HTC is reportedly in final talks with Google (GOOGGOOGL) regarding a potential strategic investment or outright sale of the former’s smartphone business, according to Taiwan’s Commercial Times per Digitimes.
    • Contrary to prior rumors, the Commercial Times claims HTC only seeks to sell its smartphone unit and not its Vive VR business. 
    • HTC needs any help it can get after reporting August revenue that was down 54% on the year and down 52% on the prior month. August marked HTC’s lowest revenue in 13 years.  
    • Previously: Bloomberg: HTC planning sale of company or VR business (Aug. 24)
    • Bloomberg reports that Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) won’t have a secondary OLED supplier until at least 2019, which means the company is stuck with its Samsung dependence for now.
    • LG Display plans full-fledged OLED shipments in 2019 with small shipments starting towards the end of 2018. 
    • The delay comes down to LG’s problems procuring the production equipment needed to manufacture the iPhone OLED panels that are larger and harder to make than the company’s previously produced Apple Watch displays. 
    • Samsung was ahead of LG in ordering the needed evaporation machines from Canon Tokki Corp, which only produces a limited number of machines a year.  
    • In other Apple news, the company reportedly signed a deal with Warner Music Group to bring the catalog to the streaming Apple Music service and to the iTunes store.    
    • Previously: Apple denies Indian government-backed app, regulators could change rules (Sept. 6)

  9. Oil…  Still watching the brent/wti spread… how much bigger do you expect it to get?

    Took some profits but still long.


  10. TWTR is an enigma – they're a household name. They could charge $0.20 a month per person worldwide and not lose any customers (and defeat their spam bot problem in one fell swoop). This is a platform that needs to revolutionize micropayments, and then be a leader in this emerging fintech field. They would be $100B company in a year ($150 per share) if they did this. Maybe 2 years at the most…


  11. LQMT 0.40 as IPhone Rumors continue:

    Maddie is very pleases she bought the stock with her Sweet 16 money last July.   Jackie wanted to buy SNAP at the IPO ($17.50) with her birthday money and she thinks she's down but don't tell her I never bought the shares because I thought it was stupid…  cool

    This I strongly agree with:

    Why You Should Spend Your Money On Experiences, Not Things

    Billionaire Richard Branson and his crew hunkered down in a concrete wine cellar to ride out Irma

    The euro's strength is a concern, ECB's Mario Draghi says after raising economic forecast  

    From Starbucks Labs: The science of why coffee is good for you

    The prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda said 50% of Barbuda was homeless after Hurricane Irma

    Here is how many deaths it takes for a disaster to receive news coverage

    Lloyd Blankfein: When yields on corporate bonds are lower than the dividends on stocks, "that unnerves me."

    That pretty much sums it up for this country!  

    Global land use since 10,000 BC. Can explore this long-run trend for countries & regions in our interactive version:


  12.  

    There’s plenty of lithium in the ground for the electric-car future, but not enough in the mines

    LOL, so much going on I forgot about EIA:

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +4.6M barrels vs. +4.0M consensus, -5.4M last week.
    • Gasoline -3.2M vs. -5.0M consensus, +0.0M last week.
    • Distillates -1.4M barrels vs. -3.1M consensus, +0.7M last week.
    • Futures -0.51% to $48.91.

    Not too much effect, we're drifting along under $49.

    Gap/Mkucs – I think the $5 is unusual but it's because WTIC is priced for US consumption where it is locked in due to hurricanes which means, even at the low price, you can't buy WTIC outside the US so Brent goes for a premium despite uninterrupted supply.  I predict /CL back to $47 and /BZ back to $50 in two weeks unless we have another hurricane.  That makes short /BZ the better play.

    How Climate Change Fueled Hurricane Harvey | WIRED

    Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics …

    The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters – NASA Earth …

    TWTR/BDC – Good idea, someone should champion micropayments anyway and they are well-positioned.  

    Some in Hollywood believe that Rotten Tomatoes has become too influential

    I like that article.  It's true, Rotten Tomatoes blows the usual Hollywood strategy of wide-releasing a crap movie in hopes people will see it before realizing how much it sucks.  Now, the first people to see a movie on the East Coast warn everyone else to save their money.  Maybe stop making so many crappy movies?  Remember when Hollywood would release one or two movies a week at the most and half the country would see the good ones?   That was nice.  There was one movie at your one local movie house and you either saw it or found something else to do that week.

    Image result for hello moviehouse wonderful life

    Wow, I just tried to short /CL again at 49.17 and it dropped 0.13 as I clicked on it.  Not inclined to chase.  

    /RB $1.645.  

    Very quiet today – see what happens when we don't talk politics…


  13. FU Trump!!!! ;-)


  14. Flight TO Miami – $88:

    Tolkien reading the Hobbit from an old tape, sweetened with background track and images.  So cool if you are into that sort of thing. 

    Supplements retailer GNC seeks China partner to aid turnaround: sources

    Almost time to pick up DIS again if they can hold that $100 line:

    Why do drugs cost less in the U.K. than in the U.S.?

    GAAP earnings have bounced back to 2014 levels when was trading between 1850-2000 with a P/E of 18-20. Now P/E @ 24.50

    British reporter mind-boggled by Trump chaos: ‘Impossible to cover every single thing without going mad’

    Storm surge forecast:

    The new BMW i5 will have an impressive range of up to 435 miles:

    These antennae are 100x smaller than their predecessors, opening the door to use in IoT, implants, & wearables

    All kids at New York City public schools will now get free lunch

    Now my brother made the call – they're getting out of Boca!  Heading to Orlando to stay up there. I certainly feel better about that.




  15. GE under 24…


  16. FU FTR!!!!


  17. Expect Lithium prices to ramp up faster than that article suggests. Even a small shift in that EV sales curve to the left in that graphic (more sales coming quicker) will move Li prices quickly at the margin. Only 35,000 tonnes of Li was mined last year which, at 7 kg per car, is only 5M cars. There are 253M cars in the US alone. And this example, using ALL of the world's Lithium, ignoring all of its current uses, and diverting it only to make US cars would only replace 2% of the US car fleet.

    Also, electrical grid storage needs orders of magnitude more Li than even cars do – a modest 20 MW / 80 MWh energy storage facility is 1,000 EV car's worth of batteries. Some states like CA are mandating storage requirements be met, and there are not many solutions to choose from, so the go-to right now is Li-ion (because it works, when it's not catching on fire that is), providing for an artificial price pressure (meaning, non-market based) on Lithium.

    Pictures like the one Phil posted of people on the golf course while the world burns is very disturbing. When the world collectively hits its "oh shit" moment, whenever that is, expect lithium to go 10X. Probably by 2020 is my call.

    I'm in LIT, and SQM as an individual pick. Long term holds here. GE is working in this space and we like them already at this price. (note that their "solutions" are still CAD drawings, that shows you how early we are in this game right now).


  18. Phil, when you get a moment can you go over the news sites you currently scour to keep well read.  A lot are posted here, but I had asked you this years ago and I want to update my reading list.  Other than the usual NYT, WSJ, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance, are there other news compilation or feed sites, Flipboard sites, or other that you have added to your repertoire?

    Thanks ~


  19. For the LTP, I want to sell 20 LL 2019 $25 puts for $2.25 ($4,500).   It's just a price I'd be happy to get back in at and a free $4,500 if we don't.

    Lithium/BDC – As noted in the Webinar, I worry that LIT has more users than manufacturers/miners of Lithium so it's kind of betting against yourself (and SQM is 16% of it).  SQM I want to check out more thoroughly, to see if they have the long-term legs to ramp up production. 

    News/Rperi – Nothing new except I now use Newsware, who were the guys who did a demo with us a few months ago.  It's really amazing, if something is happening, you just put it in and instantly get everything that is written about it the second it hits the wires.  If you are into news trading, you might want to try a subscription – tell them I sent you and I think there's some kind of discount.


  20. Thanks, I will check it out.


  21. Phil – Any play on RB with it being down @ 1.65ish?


  22. /RB/Bulls – Too tricky to call with all the restarts and the disrupted demand, exports, etc.  Cross currents all over the place.  Oil is too high – that I'm pretty sure of.  

    Well guys, I have to run to a meeting, will check in this evening. 


  23. GILD up big today.  Covered some.

    FNSR reports after the close.


  24. NewsWare (includes a link for pricing)  If you purchase a subscription, let me know what you think.  Anyone else outside Phil using this tool?    Phil, have you found this a 'must have' for Futures?  

    Golfers – That has to be a photoshop.  ????

    Flight to Miami – Too funny, I am about to board a plane to Sanford, Orlando in 5 minutes.  About 10 people in the waiting area.  Yes, I live in Florida and need to get those hurricane shutters up ASAP.  While the storm is still not looking good for the Keys and Miami, the rest of Florida may escape major devastation.  


  25. Golfers- of course it's a Photoshop. First thing I thought when I saw it. The lighting is all off. The "fire" is a night shot and the golfers are "daytime". A decent enough job but fake. 


  26. pstas – Phil must've got it from cnn.com


  27. Phil--  I just want to point out an error and possible omission in your Money Talk presentation that you may want to somehow correct for the TV audience.  You stated the worst case downside for the Apple trade as $130,000 for 100 shares @ $130, but your trade uses the $140 put sale.  Also would you not want to include the cost of each trade in the worst case figure for each trade?  It was a great presentation as always!


  28. I own the NYT but looking to also get behind the WaPost. AMZN own's them (right?) but I refuse to buy AMZN at this price, or is there another way…


  29. I don't think Amazon has anything to do with WaPost, didn't Bezos buy it with his own money?


  30. Wow, you own the NYT? That's impressive! :)


  31. Wow, AMZN is spending $5B in company money that will not be paid as dividends to shareholders in order to build out a second HQ. That sounds useful.

    But who am I to second guess, Bezos and Musk are geniuses! Their specialty is making money (for themselves, not their shareholders).


  32. The updated European model for Irma:

    Thursday, 12z European model operational run; forecast for Sunday morning at 8am ET.

    Moving slightly West of Miami but could wreck more of the center of the state now!


  33. FNSR down 7% on weak Q3 guidance,  sector is going to get hit tomorrow…second company to issue weak guidance after CIEN.   Product transition to 100G is creating revenue declines – could be opportunity shaping up. 


  34. Learner / FNSR . I like the company.  Would be nice to have a pull back.  


  35. BDC – I know what you're saying about Bezos and Musk.  AMZN doesn't make much money and none of Musk's companies earn any money, but they have both made tons of money for their shareholders, including me in AMZN.

    Learner and Batman, ugh on FNSR ! 

    I like them also, but this slow down from telecom was more than expected.


  36. Also, China is not yet as strong as expected, but there are some indications that it is going to be.


  37. FNSR / Albo – A repeat of what happened in the past. Of course that was a great buying opportunity! I have a much smaller position this time so I'll add when we calm down!

    On a different topic – are you in a safe place?


  38. @batman – I closed my FNSR put sales earlier for some small profits after AAOI issued weak guidance last qtr citing product transitions at their large data customers (AMZN, MSFT).    I am also waiting for a good pull back before initiating new positions at lower prices – both for AAOI and FNSR.    Would be great to hear Phil's insights as he has commented on FNSR recently. 


  39. @albo, stjean – do you have positions in AAOI ?  i have a small position $45 put from before that I am holding on… never thought this sell off will get it in the $50s… if they issue another weak guidance then i will get assigned for sure – though that would not be a bad place to start a position. 


  40. STJ -Thanks.  We're in NC. 

    I did the same with FNSR, lightened up into earnings, as I always do..  Have a good research source that I'll check in the morning. Will post then, FWIW.

    Learner, am currently not in AAOI, but watching for a good entry point.  ACIA looks interesting also on a pullback.



  41. Hola people!  

    Just had a fabulous meeting on our Data Project for PSW Investments – very happy with where we are. 

    Looks like we still have that shorting opportunity on /NQ at 5,975 and 2,465 on /ES not bad either.  

    Newware/Joseph – I don't think it's a must have but I find it very nice to have as a resource.  Really it's the stuff I used to care about in a Bloomberg Terminal without the charts so, from that perspective – it's a bargain.

    Golfers/Joseph – Well, according to gizmodo:

    The owners of the Beacon Rock Golf Course in Washington state, which sits along the Columbia River Gorge where a massive fire has burned over 30,000 acresconfirmed to the local press that this photo taken at their course is very much real. One of the golfers pictured in the viral image backed up their claim, though he said the photo makes the situation look more dramatic than it actually was. Several other photos taken from alternate angles showing both the golf course and the nearby wildfires support these claims.

     

    “They were definitely not faked,” Crawford told The Oregonian. “When we first started there was a fire maybe the size of a grocery store. By the end of hole two, it was just crazy. The big one you’re seeing on the internet was on hole nine.”

    Latest hurricane update still has Miami taking a direct hit but the time keeps getting pushed back, which indicates pressure from the NorthWest, which means the storm may still veer into the Gulf.  

    Thanks for the ride! Thousands of cruise ship passengers dropped off in Miami ahead of Hurricane Irma

    And there's Jose, right behind:

    Gotta be bad for Royal Caribbean and CCL.  

    AAPL/Rvn – Yeah, hard to get everything right in the rushed segment times they give.  Fortunately, we have a link page so I'll add a correction – thanks for checking.

    WaPo/BDC – Amazon doesn't own them, Bezos does – vanity project on the side.  

    Update/StJ – Drifting to the left!  

    FNSR/Learner, Batman - Sadly, we're already in some.  Sold 10 $25 puts for $4.90 so not too terrible.  I suppose we'll look to roll down the long $23 calls in the LTP, though I'm not at all pleased with the 27% drop in operating income.  Guidance is 0.30 next Q and that's on track for $1.50 min for the year so, unless things are even worse than management says, $20 is a bit oversold.

    TEVA/Jabob – Well I suppose any stock can maybe earn much less going forward which makes the current valuation too risky, right?  What if no one buys the new IPhone and AAPL has to eat $50Bn worth of inventory?  TEVA is a MASSIVE multinational corporation selling hundreds of drugs in 60 countries, most of which it is the industry leader.  They have historically traded at 10-13x earnings, currently it's 3x and no one is disputing that it's 3x, they are just telling you to imagine that the earnings will drop 50% (6x) or maybe another 50% after that (12x) and, on that basis, you are going to panic?  

    The entire impact on earnings was a $6Bn Goodwill write-off which basically means they won't have to pay taxes for 3-4 years but that only helps if you are actually a long-term investor.  

    You have to consider, at this point, that value investing simply doesn't suit you as an investor and maybe you should stick to short-term momentum-type trading where it does pay to go along with the herd and follow the whims of the market – you seem to be right in tune with that….

    Speaking of short-term momentum, indexes coming down. 


  42. Heads up/NoKo – a reminder that Saturday, Sept. 9th, is foundation day in the DRPK – so people here in the RoK have their ears pricked up for The Kid to shoot off some celebratory fireworks, something he's done to mark the occasion in previous years. However, this time around a) he's got bigger firecrackers and b) so does the USS Reagan, which is sitting right off the DPRK's east coast.

    And remember, we're a day ahead of you slowpokes on the other side of the dateline.

    So keep dry, keep cool, and we'll do our best to avoid flying bullets here.


  43. great explanation..thx Phil


  44. This is scary 

    Beware of the curse of the number 7 in the stock markets

     

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beware-of-the-curse-of-the-number-7-in-the-stock-market-2017-07-21


  45. Good morning!

    Dollar all the way to 91, Trump is turning us into Venezuela fast!   I just added 2 more so 4 long at 91.25 avg now.

    Irma got downgraded to a 4, thank goodness but still heading right for Miami but still drifting left, now the other coast is in trouble. 

    Oil hit $48.75 but bouncing back to $49 at the moment, I'm stopping out over that line (2 at $49.16) and I would have taking $48.75 and ran but I was at a breakfast meeting (that's a $300 tip!).

    Gotta like /NG long ($2.97), on the off chance the hurricane goes into the Gulf and knocks down production.  /NGZ7 is $3.195, that's my preferred play as we get all of hurricane season.

    NoKo/Snow – Can't wait for the fireworks.  Time for a Neutron Bomb?  

    You're welcome, Jabob.  

    /NQ still very stubborn, /YM was a better short.  

    Equifax got hacked in late July and is just telling us now (143M).  Imagine all the info they have on you.  This is why I hate giving out any information.  Why can't AMEX just vouch for you or something?  I want to have one trusted provider who I entrust with my info and that's it!  It's such BS that all these idiots have your info and most of them end up getting hacked and just say "oops".  

    Tempted to short silver with the Dollar so weak – just in case NoKo DOESN'T launch a missile.  


  46. Will not be adding to FNSR here.  Will probably look to switch into LITE or ACIA for tax purposes,