Author Archive for Chart School

Crude oil how low will it go? – Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

crude-oil-how-low-will-it-go--updateThe most recent price action in crude suggests that those that were long have re adjusted their positions for a downswing.

In our previous post our lower targets are:

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Crude PnF

Notice how the current price action in crude has been seen before a plunge in price.

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Crude Price action

Why is this happening?

Short answer, too much supply. You would think lower prices would be the cure for lower prices and those who pump the stuff out of the ground would cut production, da! However they don’t do this, they see lower revenues and think they need to pump more out to make up for lost revenues at a lower price, thus even more supply. Until the producers cut production (most likely at panic lows and after the banks order them) prices will fall.

Why is crude so important?

One reason is the massive amount of debt behind the producers! Another is there are whole countries relying on the crude oil price for revenues. Lower crude oil prices are dangerous. While the SP500 is at all time highs, buyback debt is huge and economic activity is not supportive of very high stock prices. A crude oil price crisis may be the Jim Rickards snow flake that stops the ‘every thing is awesome’ music. No wonder gold is starting to react to lower prices in crude oil.

There are some that are calling for a miraculous ‘V’ shaped recovery in oil, maybe, well only after those who have shorted oil have made their significant profits. A ‘V’ recovery may be at $35 or $30 who knows!

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

…“Losing money is the least of my troubles.  A loss never troubles me after I take it.  I forget it overnight.  But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.”…

Jesse Livermore

..”It’s


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Biotech breakout of bullish pattern in play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble (posted at Zero Hedge)

Bio-tech used to be an upside leader over the broad market coming off the 2009 lows. Bio-tech gave up its leadership back in 2015, where it peaked and started under performing the broad market. Over the past 15-months, Biotech has started acting a little better.

Below looks at Bio-tech ETF XBI and updates the pattern is has been forming of late.

XBI Weekly kimble charting solutions

Bio-tech ETF XBI is in an uptrend since the lows in early 2016. Of late it looks to have formed a bullish ascending triangle and is working on a breakout at (1).

We highlighted two overheadtests that could become potential resistance zones that could become overhead tests.

This information is coming to you from Kimble Charting Solutions.  Home of the Power of the Pattern where we provide Concise, Timely and Actionable chart pattern analysis and commentary so in very little time you know the pattern at hand and action to take 

Send us an email if you would like to see a sample or trial to our research

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM

Questions: Email services@kimblechartingsolutions.com or call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381

 





S&P Bull Trap on Higher Volume Distribution

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday’s market gains were whipped away on higher volume distribution. This opened shorting opportunities in indices other than the Semiconductor Index.




The S&P closed with a ‘bull trap’ on higher volume distribution.  Shorts could look to a position here with a stop on a move above 2,453. Technicals are still bullish but On-Balance-Volume and the MACD are vulnerable.






The Semiconductor Index reversed off converged resistance. Shorts who entered positions at converged resistance from former channel support will be comfortable with their position with stops on a move above 1,094. The index is also struggling with relative performance having fallen back inside its prior base. Watch for further weakness.





Similar action is playing out in the Nasdaq 100.  Today’s loss for the index was not as great, meaning a short position is still possible with a stop above 1,577 – watch pre-market for leads. A rally from the open could be attacked after 30 minutes if the typical intraday reversal emerges.





The Russell 2000 did experience a big loss but given the index has fallen back inside its prior trading range the significance of it is not so great. Having said that, the earlier ‘bull trap’ is a strong marker for a move back to trading range support around 1,345. And today’s action was one such step in the direction of 1,345.





For tomorrow, bears will likely try to force the issue and maintain the momentum lower. Bulls had little luck in delivering follow through, and falling prices can simply be achieved from the absence of buyers – which is likely to happen here.  Semiconductors remain the index most vulnerable to selling, but the Russell 2000 could be the one to deliver the downside target of 1,345 over the coming weeks. Shorts may finally have an opportunity with the Nasdaq 100 and to a lesser extent, the S&P. In any case, all short positions will be negated on a move to new near-term (or all-time) highs.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









S&P Breakout + Tech Support Bounce

Courtesy of Declan.

If volume wasn’t just a little disappointing this would have been considered a super solid day for bulls. Having said that, shorts will be feeling the squeeze and anyone short the Dow Jones would have been feeling particularly aggrieved.




Momentum bull-runner the Dow Jones gapped at the open and finished at the high of the day. Relative performance actually dropped a little but the Dow is clawing back 6-months of under-performance so it can be forgiven for this.






The S&P had a standard breakout – but a breakout which completed the sideways consolidation of recent weeks.  This helps strengthen the technical picture, which was wavering a little. The MACD returned to a ‘buy’ trigger after a brief ‘sell’.





The Nasdaq gapped higher from channel support, although Thursday/Friday was the time to have bought. A challenge of recent highs, then a move to channel resistance are the goals to aim for. Technicals have work to do although stochastics haven’t lost bullish territory.





The Russell 2000 made solid gains but it hasn’t yet challenged the June ‘bull trap’. In the light of action for other indices, today was a low key affair but it was important in showing growing demand for speculative Small Caps.





The Semiconductor Index is knocking on the door of former channel support turned resistance.  The index had the best relative gain (nearly 2%), but with resistance converging shorts will have an opportunity to attack. The risk is high, but it’s the only index really offering anything for short players.





For tomorrow, bulls can hold, bears can track the Semiconductor Index. No buyers need to watch pre-market and the first half hour of trading to get an idea what the rest of the day can bring.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Jun 18, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

A week ago Friday the NASDAQ put in an “outside reversal” day – this is approximately a day where the trading range exceeds both the prior day’s intraday high and intraday low, and then a close below the prior day’s intraday low.  See our NASDAQ chart from a week ago below:

This is often a quite bearish signal, but the market has been so immune to any real selling for so long, it has been difficult to take anything “bearish” seriously.   (Which in and of itself should be a contrary signal to be bearish!)  It is comforting to see the market act somewhat normally, despite the flood of money central bankers have put into the market month after month for years.  We actually saw NASDAQ stocks get hit this past week – woo hoo!   Not that there was any major damage, but still it was nice to see technicals work a bit.   That said, the S&P 500 continued on pace — the NASDAQ had simply gotten way too overextended so a bit of a “rubber band snapback” happened there.

Anyhow back to your normally scheduled bull market….

Entering the week, the Federal Reserve had telegraphed an interest rate hike to be delivered Wednesday.  That happened.  Yawn.

The Federal Reserve lifted a key U.S. interest rate and laid out a plan to shrink its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet starting “this year.”  The Fed as expected on Wednesday raised its benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter percentage point to between 1% and 1.25%.  Senior Fed officials also stuck to their plans for just one more rate increase this year.

“When a rate hike probability is at 99%, it is very difficult to have a big reaction after the announcement,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade.

“Many hoped the Fed would give details about the unwinding of the balance sheet, like how much and how soon and at what pace. But the Fed was vague, only saying it will start to ‘shrink gradually’ sometime this year. They gave themselves a lot of leverage to shrink the balance sheet as they see fit,” he


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Tech Indices Offer Another Chance At Support

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday saw some big volume trading as options expiration kicked in.  However, there was little change in price action across indices.




The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are both in play for Monday, each offering a chance for longs to enter at a combination of channel support and 50-day MA. Technicals are weak, and a move for stochastics [39,1] below 50 would shift technicals net bearish.







The Russell 2000 spent the second day toying with bear flag support. Both 20-day and 50-day MA are rising fast to meet price action which will provide bulls further evidence for underlying demand and reason to protect 1,400.





Large Caps were little changed. The S&P finished with a bullish hammer inside its mini-trading range, while the Dow Jones continued to add to its gains in small steps.





The chief struggling index is the Semiconductor Index. The breadown is still in play, but the question will be what happens when the next rally hits and attempts to challenge 1,140.





For tomorrow, bulls can look to the Dow, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 for opportunities. Bears can keep track at the Semiconductor Index.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









On the back of the Chinese speculator

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

on-the-back-of-the-chinese-speculatorThe Chinese investor class can move markets, the Anglo Saxon investor class has a serious challenger.

The Chinese government thought it was a good idea the middle class invest in stocks, what followed was the massive exponential rally in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC). Point: This was an approved government action.

The Chinese government sees a future for bitcoin in its monetary plan, and has cleaned up the coin exchanges, such positive noise from the government has encourage the bitcoin trend, and with nearly 50% of all transactions sourced from China the price is on its way to $5000 USD (BTCSTAMPUSD). Point: This was an approved government action.

The Chinese government encourages it citizens to invest in hard money (Gold and Silver). However it is suspected it has been China who has been the late night manipulator of the gold price (well maybe some help from the BIS and JPM in silver) to allow her to accumulate physical metal at discount prices. This wont last for ever, and when the day comes for China to wish trade to be backed by gold back notes and international trade priced in yuan (including oil), you can bet the Chinese investor will rush into the yellow metal. This will be an approved government action, as Chine will be the worlds largest holder of physical metal.

In short, the US dollar importance will been reduced. Do not be surprised when one day the gold trend mirrors SSEC and BTCSTAMPUSD as the chart below suggest.

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Bitcoin

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, taken together, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.”..

Jesse Livermore

..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate


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Nasdaq 100 at Support

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a mixed day for markets. The day started with a gap down but bulls were able to make a respectable recovery to finish well yet still net down on the day.




The index best placed for a bounce on Friday is the Nasdaq 100.  In addition to finishing on rising channel support the index has the 50-day MA to lean on too. Today’s open started at the 50-day MA.  Technicals do not offer much encouragement with a new ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume to follow the existing ‘sell’ in the MACD.






The S&P continues to shape a trading range. Today’s action did little to change that. The MACD saw a ‘sell’ trigger, but in itself doesn’t mean much unless confirmed with a downside break of the trading range (illustrated in the chart below).





The Rusell 2000 lost ground against yesterday’s ‘bull trap’ placing it back inside the consolidation. It did manage a decent finish, so watch for a challenge on the ‘bull trap’ which could catch many shorts out.





Momentum players still have the Dow Jones Index. Today’s action did little damage to its breakout.  Technicals for this index are still in good shape.





Shorts still have one avenue to work and that’s the Semiconductor Index. Thursday’s finish left the index below the sharply rising channel.  A move back to tag this former support level could see shorts stir into action, but a move above 1,100 would negate this short position.





For tomorrow, momentum players still have the Dow Jones Index, support/demand traders can look to the Nasdaq 100, while shorts can look to the Semiconductor Index.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Potential ‘Bull Trap’ in Russell 2000

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets experienced another round of profit taking but there was only one market showing a potential top. Yesterday, the Russell 2000 edged a breakout but today sellers put this in jeopardy with a potential ‘bull trap’.




The ‘bull trap’ in the Russell 2000 will be negated on a move above 1,433. Further losses will drop the index back inside the prior consolidation, but ‘bull traps’ often lead to moves to the other side of the consolidation – in this case, a break below 1,340.






The Nasdaq offers a shorting opportunity as the index struggles to make back last Friday’s loss. The 20-day MA is playing as resistance; place stops a few percentage points above the MA.




The S&P is more likely to shape a consolidation as other indices distract attention. Selling volume was light, but there was a ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume. There is no clear topping behaviour for this index, so it’s a wait-and-see for now.





In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial average added to prior gains. Momentum buyers will be pleased with its behavior.




For tomorrow, track action in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq. If sellers add to today’s action then this could start a wave of profit taking and new shorting opportunities.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Small Caps Inch Higher

Courtesy of Declan.

After Friday’s selloff, it was left to bulls to try and paint over the cracks. The Russell 2000 returned to its breakout with a small gain over 1,420. The spike high is still influential, but the move into the spike high weakens the significance of this typically bearish candlestick. Also, note the sharp rise in relative market performance against the Nasdaq.




The S&P maintained its rally having successfully defended the May breakout.  Today’s gain didn’t knock out at 2,446 but it took a big step towards it. Volume was modest and technicals are positive. It could still make a new breakout if it can clear 2,446; action for the last couple of weeks is itself a consolidation and therefore ready to break.





The Nasdaq experienced the greatest loss and only managed to bank the smallest gain today. The Index has a long way to go to make back the loss but shorts will be looking for opportunities to attack – particularly if the positivity in the Russell 2000 reverses. Technicals have a ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD and bearish crossover in the -DI/+DI





The Dow Jones was the only index to finish with a new 52-week high. While it’s a limited index in the number of components it was the index which had been in May primed for a breakout and in the last few weeks, delivered.  Momentum traders may get more out of this in the coming weeks.





For Tuesday, bulls can look for further momentum gains in the Russell 2000, Dow Jones and S&P.  Shorts will be looking for a doji or bearish candlestick which fails to challenge the highs of Friday’s selloff in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Delaware Professor Says "Rich, White, Clueless, Male" Warmbier "Got Exactly What He Deserved"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Shannon Spada via CampusReform.org,

University of Delaware professor claimed Wednesday that Otto Warmbier was typical of “rich, white, clueless males” and “got exactly what he deserved” at the hands of the North Koreans.

Katherine Dettwyler, an anthropology prof...



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ValueWalk

Ubiquiti Networks Inc (UBNT), A Case Study In Business Model Disruption

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Article by Ewing Morris, Via Capitalize For Kids

Ewing Morris & Co. Investment Partners is a Torontobased investment firm founded in 2011. We have never described ourselves as value investors. This reason is because there is no opposite of value when it comes to investing. For instance, have you ever met someone who intentionally overpays for low-quality, shrinking businesses run by crooks? Rather, we apply our investment Playbook approach based on two core thesis types: Cheap Assets and Compounders. Cheap Assets trade at discounts to private market value. However, our preferred approach is to find Compounders which come in two varieties: Great Capital Allocators (Tom Murphy, Henry Singleton, John Malone, etc.) and Great Businesses. We believe that Ubiq...



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Phil's Favorites

Bitcoin In Perspective: Bill Gates Worth More, Gold 200 Times More

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

An interesting article on HowMuch puts the Bitcoin phenomenon into proper perspective.

Google founder Larry Page’s net worth beats bitcoin’s entire market cap. Microsoft founder Bill Gates’s net worth is double Bitcoin.

Please consider The Bitcoin Economy, in Perspective.

Last year, Bitcoin became more stable than gold, and earlier this year, the price of a Bitcoin surpassed that of an ounce of gold for the first time. Currently, all the bitcoin in the world is ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin In Perspective: Bill Gates Worth More, Gold 200 Times More

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock, MishTalk

An interesting article on HowMuch puts the Bitcoin phenomenon into proper perspective.

Google founder Larry Page’s net worth beats bitcoin’s entire market cap. Microsoft founder Bill Gates’s net worth is double Bitcoin.

Please consider The Bitcoin Economy, in Perspective.

Last year, Bitcoin became more stable than gold, and earlier this year, the price of a Bitcoin surpassed that of an ounce of gold for the first time. Currently, all the bitcoin in the world is ...



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Chart School

Crude oil how low will it go? - Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The most recent price action in crude suggests that those that were long have re adjusted their positions for a downswing.

In our previous post our lower targets are:

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



Notice how the current price action in crude has been seen before a plunge in price.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



Why is this happening?

Short answer, to...

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Insider Scoop

7 Stocks To Watch For June 22, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SNX Earnings Scheduled For June 22, 2017 5 Must-See Earnings Charts Related SCS ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

Even though genetic information is available, doctors may be ignoring important clinical clues

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Even though genetic information is available, doctors may be ignoring important clinical clues

Courtesy of Greg HallCase Western Reserve University

Digitized strand of DNA. Mathagraphics/From www.shutterstock.com

With the availability of home genetic testing kits from companies such as “23andMe” and “Ancestry DNA,” more peo...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 19th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Frontier laid off state Senate president after broadband vote it didn't like

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Speaking of FTR – not nice people…

Frontier laid off state Senate president after broadband vote it didn’t like

By Arstechnica.com

Broadband provider Frontier Communications recently laid off the West Virginia state Senate president after a vote the company didn't like—and yes, you read that correctly.

West Virginia does not have a full-time legislature, and state lawmakers can supplement their part-time government salaries ($20,000 a year,&...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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