Author Archive for Chart School

Gold steps formation is bullish

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

gold-steps-formation-is-bullishMaking a clear judgment on price trend that’s is correct is critical, after all the most common advice from the large heads on Wallstreet is to follow the trend. This means your trend tools must provide the clear and correct answer, readtheticker.com members are encouraged to consider RTT Steps as their preferred trend tool.



These chart examples should prove our point. RTT Steps is much better than moving averages, hands down!



Gold example

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Gold




Apple Inc example

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Apple Inc




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be.  The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices break through the limit in either direction.”..



Jesse Livermore





…”The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different’ “…



John Templeton





..“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?”..



Robert G Allen





..”It’s easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled”..



Mark Twain





After a question on how to become a better investor professional Mr Munger responded, ..“Read history, read history, read history.”..



Charlie Munger











Volatility on the Rise

Courtesy of Declan.

Today’s losses look big on current charts but in a historic context, they weren’t too severe. However, big red bars are not to be ignored and ‘market leading’ Small Caps have felt the full brunt of the selling from July which is bad news for the broader market.  Today’s losses in the Russell 2000 undercut the 200-day MA leaving 1,345 as next support (of which I would not be too confident of it holding).






If the Russell 2000 gives up 1,350s then a drop to 1,150s could be on the cards. Things could get ugly if this scenario plays out.





Those who played the spike high in the Dow as a short will be feeling good after today. The next downside target is 21,500 which is a handy reward for those going against the prior bull trend.





The S&P also took a hit but the index did something similar in May and recovered. Don’t be surprised if there another like bounce tomorrow. If you are looking for a recovery bounce then the S&P is the index to watch. There is an On-Balance-Volume ‘buy’ trigger to work off too.




Another is the Nasdaq; a practical carbon copy of the S&P. The one difference is that there is a ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume which might be a deal breaker for some. Today’s selling volume also registered as distribution.




For tomorrow I would be looking at aggressive longs (day trades?) in the Nasdaq and S&P. Action in the Russell 2000 suggests something worse is in the works so I wouldn’t be rushing to buy these sell offs if you are looking for the long term (1 year+).




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Stocks bulls- Don’t want to see selling start here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Historically stocks tend to “Start” to get soft this time of year. Below looks at the average performance of the S&P 500 during the month of August over the past 10 & 20-years.

avg S&P 500 returns in august, kimble charting solutions

 

The typical decline in August is “nothing” dramatic for sure, as a 1% decline is nothing to get too concerned about. Below looks at where a few key indices (S&P, Banks, Small Caps and Transports) find themselves at this time.

 

four charts S&P 500, bank index, transports, russell 2000, chris kimble chart

 

As mentioned above each index remains in an uptrend and is above its 200-day moving average. Despite August and September historically being soft, so far August is on course, as a little softness has taken place.

The Power of the Pattern does want to share this observation- Each index finds itself at a price point at each (1), wherebulls really don’t want to see selling pressure get started, this time of year.

From Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decision-making and results

Send us an email if you would like to see sample reports or a trial period to test drive our Premium or Weekly Research

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM





Time to Short?

Courtesy of Declan.

We had the profit taking sell-off and then the bounce but is now the time for shorts to come in more aggressively? After yesterday’s gapped gains there was a significant slow down in the market advance. This action presents an opportunity for shorts to attack.




The Semiconductor Index is one of the most attractive indices for shorts. The massive June bearish engulfing pattern remains dominant and offers guidance going forward. Tuesday’s doji has the makings of a bearish harami cross.  Technicals are bearish and aligned in shorts favor.






The S&P managed to return above support but the ‘bearish cloud cover’ is a potential concern for longs.  An aggressive short could use the high for stop placement but the index is not as attractive as the Semiconductor Index.





The Nasdaq has stalled at bounce former support turned resistance. Bearish technicals do offer a chance for shorts to take a punt on today’s “bearish cloud cover”; stops go on a break of today’s high.





The Russell 2000 is struggling, Yesterday saw a good bounce but today it gave up a large chunk of those gains. I’m not sure there is a shorting opportunity here (the risk:reward isn’t great) but the index looks ready to generate further losses.





If shorts are going to profit then today looks to be one of those days where the risk:reward is in their favour.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Aug 13, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

It was looking like YET ANOTHER low volatility week…until Thursday… when finally some fireworks went off.   Many attributed it to sabre rattling between the U.S. and North Korea but eventually the market has to come down, and a convenient reason will be found when the time comes.   For the week the S&P shed 1.4%, its worst week since March, while the NASDAQ dropped 1.5%.   Of note, the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks finished out the week 2.7% lower, its biggest one week decline since February 2016.

“From a geopolitical perspective, we understand why the escalation in tensions will have shaken some of the complacency out of investors,” said Eric Wiegand, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Private Client Wealth Management. “And while risks remain elevated from a geopolitical perspective, valuations are not necessarily excessive, though full. But we’re in a low inflationary environment, which can help valuations remain elevated for longer than they would otherwise.”

Even with Thursday’s action we keep seeing stories about “historic” lack of volatility – by this measure the market is the quietest since 1965!!!

The last time Wall Street trading was this quiet, Lyndon Johnson was president, The Sound of Music was the movie to see, and on the radio, the Rolling Stones were searching for satisfaction.  According to an analysis by Michael Batnick, director of research at Ritholtz Wealth Management, volatility in the U.S. equity market hasn’t just been in short supply of late, it’s on track for its lowest level in 52 years.  “For the first half of the year, the average absolute daily price change, meaning all negative signs are removed, is just 0.32%. If the year ended today, this would be the smallest daily price change since 1965,” he wrote in a blog post.  Batnick noted that this kind of environment was unusual, saying it “could change at any time of course, and in fact I would expect it to.”

Until Thursday the S&P 500 had only moved >1% (in either direction) 4 times this year!  Now it’s 5!  Further the S&P 500 has gone 284 trading days without…
continue reading





Shorts Take Profits – Bounce Opportunities Available.

Courtesy of Declan.

Last week brought a shock to traders reared on sub-1% daily swings as profit taking losses of 2%+ swept the board on Thursday in the face of Trump uncertainty. It’s a bizarre market given uncertainty is the enemy of the market and the world is full of uncertainty yet market participants were happy to bid up Trump’s election.




It’s not all doom and gloom. The Nasdaq made a recovery just above channel support. It might be a little early for a bounce but Friday’s action should be respected. MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX are bearish but stochastics are at a bull market support level. If looking long side then risk is measured by a loss of 6,215.





The other index offering a long opportunity is the Russell 2000. Small Caps experienced the brunt of the selling last week but the 200-day MA is offering itself as support. Using Friday’s low as a place for stops will offer a relatively low risk (if high whipsaw risk) long opportunity. Technicals are negative but stochastics are deeply oversold.





The S&P may also have a long opportunity. The Thursday-Friday combination has the look of a bullish harami cross (one of the more reliable bounce patterns). If playing a long side bounce, place stops on a loss of 2,435.





The Dow has mostly ignored the carnage around it. Watch rallies for new shorting opportunities – I can’t see this index bucking the trend for long. Friday saw a MACD trigger ‘sell’ but other technicals are hanging on.





On a final note, the Semiconductor Index is also offering itself as a long side opportunity. Friday’s recovery was at channel support and stochastics held the bullish midline typical of bullish markets. June’s bearish engulfing pattern still looks dominant but the index has found buyers on moves back to 1,000.





Premarket is again important as long opportunities are on offer but are heavily dependent on channel support holding – gap downs could be taken as value plays but don’t hold if markets fail to recover in the first half hour.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Wyckoff Bitcoin target $5,000 – Update v2

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

wyckoff-bitcoin-target-5000--update-v2In the video we talk a little about how block chain can be used in international business!



Previous posts Wyckoff Bitcoin target $5,000 – Update



More from RTT Tv



Richard Wyckoff logic is perfect for block chain investing, as deals with pure supply and demand equation. At the end of the video there is a discussion on how block chain can and will be used for the transfer of commodities or any other goods for that matter.



Asia is behind the boom in bitcoin, on the threat of war, either a shooting or trade war! Some say the US is in recession already, hence the need for protectionism to defend the US worker. This show has just started! Will bitcoin equal 1 Dow point, no matter if Dow at 25,000 or 10,000.






Disclosure: No ownership of bitcoin.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…”They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.”..



Jesse Livermore





..”It’s easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled”..



Mark Twain





..”Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”..



Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”

 [Contrarian Investing]











Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.



Warren Buffett





..“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”..



Joe Granville











How to Win Against the Dangerous “Herding Impulse”

Why do we like bargains when we're shopping for clothes, food, cars, and houses, but not so much stocks? According to Elliott Wave International, it's because we like certainty – and stocks don't give us that. 

How to Win Against the Dangerous "Herding Impulse"

By Elliott Wave International

We all love a bargain…

…Except when it comes to stocks.

The reason boils down to uncertainty. We know what our fruits and vegetables should cost at the grocer's, but we're far less certain about how much to pay for a blue-chip stock or shares in an S&P 500 Index fund.

So how does our mind work in decisions that involve certainty vs. uncertainty?

Robert Prechter and Wayne Parker, co-authors of the paper, The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective” (Journal of Behavioral Finance, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 84-108, 2007) explain that in each situation, very different regions of the brain take over — literally.

When we spend money as consumers, we depend on the neocortex region of the brain, where our ability to reason resides.

For example, if we shop for groceries and see our favorite fruit on sale at a 40 percent discount, we think "That's a good deal. I make the best use of my money by buying it now." And, if we hang around to watch how other shoppers behave, we see that particular item sell out sooner than usual. In other words: The demand for consumer goods rises as the price falls.

But when we spend money as investors, our brain relies on the more primitive region — the basal ganglia — which drives unconscious behavior such as herding.

Let's say that 30 minutes after the stock market opens, we see that the blue-chip stock we own is down 20 percent. We know that shareholders are fleeing the stock. The basal ganglia screams, "They know something I don't. I'd better sell too." In this case, demand for the asset FALLS as the price falls. Why?

Because in speculative markets, assets have no true utility. An investor buys it today in the hope that it will be worth more to another investor tomorrow. But that future value is…
continue reading





Transports could be repeating 1999 & 2007 now!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Below looks at the Dow Jones Transportation Index since 1994. Is it possible that the Transports index is repeating the patterns that were created back in 1999 & 2007? Below is an update on a potential pattern that we have been sharing with members for months.

Dow Transports index chris kimble chart

In 1999, Transports closed slightly higher than in 1998, which appeared that a bullish breakout was in play. Quickly the index reversed and broke support at (1), which was followed by a good deal of selling pressure, driving the index much lower. The breakout was nothing more than a fake out in 1999.

In 2008, Transports closed slightly higher than in 2007, which appeared that a bullish breakout was in play. Quickly the index reversed and broke support at (2), which was followed by a good deal of selling pressure, driving the index much lower. The breakout was nothing more than a fake out in 2008.

Over the past couple of years, the pattern in the transports looks a good deal like it did in 1999 & 2007. As we have been sharing with members for month, the odds of a repeat are low, yet if the pattern we are sharing would happen to be correct, the impact could be quite large.

At this time the Transports index is testing rising support at (3). Even if the pattern do not repeat, if support would give way at (3), it could encourage selling in this important index.

If you would like to have charts like this sent to you weekly, we would be honored if you were a Premium or Sectors member.

from Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decision-making and results

Send us an email if you would like to see sample reports or a trial period to test drive our Premium or Weekly Research

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM





Small Caps Accelerate Losses

Courtesy of Declan.

The Russell 2000 has been the index under the most pressure since peaking in July and it was the index to suffer greatest from sellers. The index is trading inside the early summer trading range and typical after a false breakout is a move back to range support, currently at 1,345. The 200-day MA will be the first port of call on the way down, which as of Wednesday’s close ist at 1,369.






The S&P was able to post a gain after a gap down on the open – even if the net result was a flat end-of-day close. The 3-week trading range is still intact although today’s lows saw the bottom of the range tagged.





The Nasdaq is getting squeezed by 6,330 support and declining resistance generated from the July breakout. If there is going to be a false breakout then tomorrow is the day it’s likely to happen. Swing traders are in a position to trade with a buy above today’s high of 6.355 or a short below 6,310 – stops on the flip side.





The Dow Jones may have marked a top with a gravestone doji. This will be confirmed by a retest of 22,200 which fails to take out the high.  Shorts are likely to take advantage of any such test. Watch with interest.





For tomorrow, watch the Nasdaq for a swing trade opportunity. The Russell 2000 may be morphing into a larger decline but after today there may be a relief bounce which will give day (bull) traders a chance to steal something. The S&P is in limbo and a breakout may be the preferred outcome. The Dow is looking vulnerable to further profit taking but shorts will need something more to enter their positions.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Zero Hedge

UK Opposition Leader Calls For "People's QE" - It's Venezuela With Tea & Cakes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute,

It is sad to see that, facing the evidence of the failure of demand-side policies and money printing, many commentators propose some of the most outdated and failed policies in modern economic history. In the UK, Mr. Jeremy Corbyn, the new leader of the Labour Party, believes that the government spends too little. With a current 44.4% of GDP public spending, saying the government...



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ValueWalk

Marc Faber: In The Age Of Cyber-Terrorism, Every Investor Must Own Gold

By HARDASSETSALLIANCE. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Take it from “Dr. Doom”: own some physical gold and keep it out of the banking system.

Dr. Marc Faber, a legendary investor and the editor/publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, is well known for his contrarian investing style.

In a recent Metal Masters interview with the Hard Assets Alliance, he noted that the...



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Phil's Favorites

Everyone Gets Arbed Eventually

 

Everyone Gets Arbed Eventually

Courtesy of 

The Wall Street Journal on the business of high frequency trading:

A costly high-tech arms race in which HFT firms relentlessly compete to shave tiny fractions of a second off data transmission times has also hurt their bottom lines.

Revenue at HFT firms from U.S. equities trading is projected to be just $850 million this year, compared to $7.2 billion in revenue from U.S. stocks trading in 2009, Tabb Group says.

Techniques pioneered by the upstart traders are now common at old-line financial firms. Goldman Sachs, for example, had 600 human traders supporting its cash eq...



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Chart School

Gold steps formation is bullish

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Making a clear judgment on price trend that's is correct is critical, after all the most common advice from the large heads on Wallstreet is to follow the trend. This means your trend tools must provide the clear and correct answer, readtheticker.com members are encouraged to consider RTT Steps as their preferred trend tool.

These chart examples should prove our point. RTT Steps is much better than moving averages, hands down!

Gold example

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



Apple Inc example
...

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Insider Scoop

Things To Like, Things To Watch At The Gap

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GPS 20 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session A Peek Into The Markets: U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of Consumer Sentiment Repor...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Ukrainian Lawmakers Disclose $45 Million In Bitcoin Holdings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Ukraine's crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service.

Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country's democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 14th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead - now's the time to work out the ethics

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead – now's the time to work out the ethics

Courtesy of Jessica BergCase Western Reserve University

There’s still a way to go from editing single-cell embryos to a full-term ‘designer baby.’ ZEISS Microscopy, CC BY-SA

The announcement by researchers in Portland, Oregon that they’ve successfully modified the genetic m...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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