Author Archive for Chart School

No Update

Courtesy of Declan.

Stockcharts.com running very slow, so no update today.





Greece Strikes Back (or was it China?)

Courtesy of Declan.

A doubly whammy of weakness from Asian and European sessions left bulls with little room to stretch their legs. Not surprisingly, there were few willingly to make a commitment so bears had the market to themselves.  The good news is that today’s decisive selling pushes markets out of their stiffing ranges.

The S&P dropped below 2080, and is knocking on the door of 2040. Technicals are again net negative. The 200-day MA at 2053, just above the 2040 level, may play a role in tomorrow’s action.


While the Dow has already indicated a break from the March/July range.



The Nasdaq gapped out of its bearish rising wedge. Lots of room down to the 200-day MA available. Shorts may look to attack rallies back to 5038.


While the Semiconductor Index suffered another big hit. It’s trading down at its 200-MA having crashed out of its range.


The reversal in the Russell 2000 has left behind a ‘bull trap’, although this has dropped it back inside the prior range, and favoring a move back to 1,210.


Tomorrow doesn’t look to offer bulls much despite the heavy selling. It might be a time for a consolidation, although it may only turn out to be only a pause in the decline. A meaningful decline is long overdue, but is it happening now?

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





Greek Trade

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

greek-tradeIs this the only trade this week while Europe and Greece debt issues play out.

Long $USD

UPDATE: If the market prices in a GREXIT then that makes the Eurozone more healthy, so it seems, which is good for the Euro. DXY down, then EURO up.  The week will be a wild one, it can change on a dime!

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DXY




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DXY



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states”..

William D Gann


..”Money couldn’t buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy”..

Spike Milligan


..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts … Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skilfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right”…

Bernard Baruch


Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.

Warren Buffett


..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”

Peter Lynch








Further Selling, But Breakouts in Tech and Small Caps Hold

Courtesy of Declan.

More losses, but breakouts in Tech and Small Caps hold for another day. However, there is no more wiggle room for these breakouts, Large Caps are already under pressure. The S&P is inside its range and technicals have started to waiver with a ‘sell’ trigger between +DI and -DI.


The Dow is also under pressure, with additional technical weakness in On-Balance-Volume, ADX, and Momentum. The trading range is intact and bears can’t call a victory until a loss of 17,625.


The Russell 2000 tagged breakout support, but managed to finish with a bullish ‘hammer’. If there is a concern, it’s that the hammer didn’t occur on oversold momentum. But until 1,278 breaks, bulls hold the edge.


The Nasdaq had a more bearish finish to today, but it did hold on to 5,096 support.


Friday is an interesting day. A weak end-of-week finish is on the cards unless bulls mount an attack.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





Sellers Pressure, Nasdaq 100 Shorting Opportunity

Courtesy of Declan.

Again, too-and-fro the markets continue their dance. Despite the selling, there was no handing of control over to bears. The S&P ducked below 2120, but key resistance is at 2,134. Technicals kept their net bullish technical strength


Nasdaq losses didn’t drop to challenge 5,096, but tomorrow is a chance to deliver on this. Buyers can be patient enough to wait for this before committing.


The Russell 2000 is another index working on a retest of the breakout. Support at 1,278 is open for a retest tomorrow.


The Nasdaq 100 was a little different. It hadn’t cleared resistance and today’s selling leaves it more open to an attack by shorts as resistance is confirmed at 4,550.


For tomorrow, bulls can look for a retest of breakout support in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq. Shorts can look to the Nasdaq 100 for their opportunity.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





STTG Market Recap June 23, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

Tonight’s Market Recap is sponsored by SimplerStocks – Simpler Stocks’ new report gives you instant access to the complete truth about the state of our economy.

Volatility-468x60-b

Indexes gyrated around unchanged all session as traders awaited more clarity on the Greece situation.   The S&P 500 gained 0.06% and the NASDAQ 0.12%.  Data showed existing home sales jumped 5.1 percent in May to a 5-1/2 year high.   U.S. durable goods data for May showed a decline of 1.8 percent, a greater decline than expected. The core figure of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.4 percent, reversing a 0.3 percent decline in April.

Greece’s State Minister Nikos Pappas said on Tuesday in a Reuters report he was confident parliament would back a deal the crisis-hit country hopes to strike with its lenders even though dissenters have criticized concessions offered by Greece.  Separately, Reuters reported that Athens negotiator Euclid Tsakalotos said he believes they are closer to a deal than ever. When asked about the June 30 payment deadline to the International Monetary Fund, he said the deal will enable them to fulfill obligations.  The anti-austerity Greek government presented new budget proposals on Monday, raising hopes that Athens will be able to secure a cash-for-reforms deal with its international creditors.

Not much change from comments yesterday of course – remains difficult to be short as whatever day Greece is “solved” you can get a reaction like you saw in Germany yesterday.

spx

nasdaq

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator has remained positive the past few session – a feather in the cap for bulls.

NYMO

Tesla Motors (TSLA) had a nice bounce off its 10 day moving average.    The high-end electric car maker jumped after it re-assured Wall Street it remains on track to demo its more affordable Model 3 next year and begin production in 2017, according to a report in Investor’s Business Daily.

tsla

Here are some individual charts courtesy of MarketSmith:

Netflix (NFLX) announced a 7:1 split.  It is payable on July 14 to stock owners of record at the July 2 close. Trading at the post-split price will start July 15.  We mentioned the share increase authorization a few weeks back which is generally a precursor to a split.  The shares are up 3% in after hours.

nflx

Facebook (FB) had its second strong day in a row.  Nice volume spike today to boot.

fb

Amazon (AMZN) is trying to reach old highs.

amzn





Honors Shared

Courtesy of Declan.

Today was a big non-event. There was probably hope for more from the Greece story, but a stay of execution keeps things ticking over for another couple of days. The S&P was kept pegged below 2,135, but maintains its trendline breakout.


The Nasdaq closed near the day’s highs, and consequently near all-time highs too. Technicals are all net bullish.


The Russell 2000 also kept its gains, and is well above support of 1,278.


As a final note, the Dow returned net bullish in technical strength.


Tomorrow is another day. Traders can look to swing trade today’s narrow range; short loss of lows, buy break of highs – stop on flip side.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





Low Volume Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

After Friday’s options expiration it was left to bulls to pick up the pieces of Friday’s distribution selling. Large Caps were able to erase Friday’s losses. In doing so, the S&P regained its net bullish technical picture.


The Nasdaq banked most of its gain by the open, but it did enough to leave a decent amount of wiggle room to breakout support.


The Russell 2000 was another to kick on from Friday. Again, as with Large Caps and Tech indices, the bulk of gains were banked prior to market open.


Greece will again govern the headlines, but with limited technical resistance there isn’t much to stop further gains. Will this move into blowoff territory?

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





STTG Market Recap June 22, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

We said last week a few times it is a difficult time to be short the market even if the indexes are not doing much because at first hint of a Greek agreement the market should bounce.   And with the deadline fast approaching and the usual “kick the can approach” (i.e. fix nothing  long term but extend deadlines etc) that has been in place for years bears betting against more can kicking risk their market future.  There was not even a Greek settlement today but just some vague hopes for one and that alone pushed up U.S. markets – and had certain European markets up 3%.   The S&P 500 gained 0.61% and the NASDAQ 0.72%; almost all these gains came premarket.   Of course if some bad news comes out in the next few days all this can be reversed short term!

Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said Greece’s new proposals are a “welcome step” but not enough to solidify a deal today. Over the weekend, Greece’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras showed new willingness to make concessions that would unlock aid needed to avoid a default.  The cash-strapped country faces a 1.5 billion euro ($1.7 billion) payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the end of the month. If no deal is reached, many speculate Athens will need to impose capital controls to avoid a banking crisis as savers withdraw their bank deposits.

The S&P 500 is still fighting with the top end of a months long range, while the NASDAQ appears to be in the early stages of a breakout; even if Friday’s action was not the most friendly.  That’s the situation when you are dealing with a news driven market – especially one that is reacting to European news.

spx

nasdaq

The Russell 2000 actually might have already broken out and been the first of the indexes to go.

rut

Today’s action is also an illustration on why it was too late to try to short the German market.  Greece and Germany are joined at the hip.

dax

Facebook (FB) was a winner today as its price target was raised to $120 from $92 at Piper Jaffray.  Facebook’s video advertising platform is gaining ground on Google’s (GOOG) YouTube, according to Reuters.

fb

Biotech was up big today – what else is new?

ibb

Short selling firm Citron put
continue reading





Large Caps Suffer Heavy Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Large Caps suffer heavier selling; not enough to break the declining resistance trendline, but enough to register as distribution in one of the heaviest sell off days for 2015. Part of this volume was down to options expiration, but not enough to account for all of it. The S&P has mixed technical strength, and remains range bound by larger support and resistance between 2040 and 2135.


The Nasdaq was not as adversely impacted by Friday’s selling as the S&P, with Thursday’s breakout holding above 5096. Monday is a wait-and-see for the index.


The Russell 2000, as the lead index, experienced a simple flat day on Friday. Like the Nasdaq, it held on to its breakout.


Monday will be about maintaining Thursday’s breakouts for the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq, which will help the S&P win back some of the lost ground from Friday. Of course, Greece will again dominant the headlines with Monday’s deadline, but U.S. indices may be able to skirt the worst of it.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Red China Goes Redder, Stocks Tumble Despite Government Ban On Bearish Talk

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Despite more liquidity injections (CNY35 billion 7day RevRepo), archaic deals for brokerages to manipulate their balance sheets, and local reporters noting China's propaganda ministry ordering state media to publish only positive opinions about the stock market, not to criticize, Chinese stocks are in red once again. The record streak of margin debt declines continues and although futures were driven up early on, any strength has been sold into as unwinds wreak havoc on the ponzi wealth creation scheme. All major indices are in the red with Shenzhen (home of the 500%-club) the worst, down around 2% (though as CNBC would say "off the lows"...



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Phil's Favorites

Aging Trucker Workforce Coupled With Increased Demand Provides Strong Incentive for Trucking Robots

Courtesy of Mish.

Demand for truck drivers is on the rise. Yet, there are not enough young drivers who want that rough of a lifestyle.

Supply Chain reports Aging Truck Driver Work Force - A Major Issue in Filling Demand & Empty Seats.
With a combination of retirements and people exiting the industry, carriers need to recruit in roughly 100,000 drivers per year over the next decade to simply keep pace with projected United States freight needs.

The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) released a fascinating white paper analyzing the age demographics of truck drivers.
...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Shanghai index creates historic reversal pattern like 2007

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Much of the attention around the world seems to be revolving around a small country called Greece. What about the most populated country in the world (China), any key messages coming from there of late?

Well another Month, Quarter and Half a year are in the books. With this in mind I wanted to look at Monthly action of the hottest stock market in the world, the Shanghai Index. Above looks at the Shanghai index over the past 25-years. The 100%+ rally over the past year has pushed the Shanghai index up to its 23% Fibonacci ratio and a long-term resistance line, that has been in play for 25-years at (1) above.

As the Shanghai index was hitting this...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and  Economy

Ukraine Halts Russian Gas Purchases After Price Talks Fail (Zero Hedge)

It has been a bad day for deals and deadlines all around: first Greece is about to enter July without a bailout program and in default to the IMF with the ECB about to yank its ELA support or at least cut ELA haircuts; also the US failed to reach a nuclear deal with Iran in a can-kicking negotiation that has become so farcical there is no point in even covering it; and now moments ago a third June 30 "deal" failed to reach an acceptable conclusion when Russia and Ukraine were unable to reach an agreement on gas prices at talks in Vienna on Tuesday. As a result, Ukraine is suspending its purchase of Russian gas.

...



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Insider Scoop

Level 3 Acquires DDoS Mitigation Company Black Lotus, No Terms

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related LVLT Benzinga's Top Initiations Goldman Sachs Initiates Level 3 Communications With Buy The Time To Hedge Is Now! June 2015 Update (Seeking Alpha)

Global telecommunications provider Level 3 Communications, Inc. (NYSE: LVLT), announced it acquired privately held Black Lotus, a provider of ...



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Chart School

No Update

Courtesy of Declan.

Stockcharts.com running very slow, so no update today. ...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 29th., 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

BitGold Now Available in US! Why BitGold?

Courtesy of Mish.

BitGold USA

Effective today, BitGold Announces Platform Launch in the United States.

BitGold, a platform for savings and payments in gold, is pleased to announce the launch of the BitGold platform for residents of the US and US territories. As of today, US residents can sign up on the BitGold platform and buy, sell, or redeem gold using BitGold’s Aurum payment and settlement technology. US residents will also have access to the BitGold mobile app and a prepaid card when these features launch over the coming weeks. Send and receive gold payment features are not initially available in the US.

About BitGold

...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls under the gun to muster troops, while bears lie in wait

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Two weeks ago, bulls seemed ready to push stocks higher as long-standing support reliably kicked in. But with just one full week to go before the Independence Day holiday week arrives, we will see if bulls can muster some reinforcements and make another run at the May highs. Small caps and NASDAQ are already there, but it is questionable whether those segments can drag along the broader market. To be sure, there is plenty of potential fuel floating around in the form of a friendly Fed and abundant global liquidity seeking the safety and strength of US stocks and bonds. While the technical picture has glimmers of strength, summer bears lie in wait.

In this weekly ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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