Author Archive for Chart School

Markets Rally, But Still Work To Do.

Courtesy of Declan

A positive response to Friday's selling helped erase those losses, but for many indices it wasn't enough to recover support or reverse technical 'sell' triggers.

The S&P is on the verge of a 'death cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs as the rally finished just below the 50-day MA. The consolidation channel remains in play and this should see higher prices in the latter part of the year, but for now, it's drifting down in a relatively controlled manner.
 

A second 'bear trap' could be in play for the Nasdaq as the index did enough to recover its 50-day MA. Aggressive players could look to go long with a stop on a loss of 5,805 – anticipating a breakout of 5,930 in the weeks ahead.
 


The Russell 2000 saw a 1% gain which brought the index back to rising support, but not enough to return above it. The two-bar paired reversal is another long opportunity with a stop on a loss of 1,345.
 


The chart which is the most interesting is the VIX:VXN relationship. Past spikes in the relationship between the two volatility indices and supporting stochastics suggest a 'strong buy' signal. Today's signal is perhaps the clearest buy signal for long-side traders since last November and June.
 


While technicals remain weak for Tech Indices, there is perhaps enough from a recovery of the 50-day MA and the VXN:VIX relationship to offer a traders 'buy' trigger. Other indices aren't as well placed, but all indices could benefit if the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 gain traction.

You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.

I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for "fallond."

If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro's system.





Weekly Market Recap Apr 16, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Important note – we are doing a survey of our readers which can be found here.  If you are new to the site in the past few months our surveys are probably the least taxing of any on the internet; usually 2 or 3 questions so we’d appreciate the few moments it takes to fill one out.  Thanks so much!

Still no significant movement in the indexes but with moderate losses Wednesday and Thursday, the major indexes did put in a negative week of >1% which has been a rarity in 2017.  Geopolitical events seemed to weigh on the market as the talk about tax reform / infrastructure spend seemed to be kicked out to the future.  Earnings season also began as a trickle in the holiday shortened week.

“Geopolitical concerns have clearly been on the rise over the last week or so with Syria and North Korea never far from the front pages while it’s worth noting that we are all of a sudden now just 12 days away from the first round presidential election in France,” wrote Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Tuesday note.

We also saw some degradation in the S&P 500 chart which we will outline lower on the page; meanwhile the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fell to key support levels.  But it is worth noting the S&P 500 fell below the 50 day moving average for the first time since November 8th.

Transports are also looking salty…

Semiconductors – another economically sensitive sector, also broke a long trendline of support late in the prior week and then this past week broke down further; now below the 50 day moving average.

Retail sales for March were released Friday even as markets were closed… and they were meh.

Sales at U.S. retailers fell in March for the second month in a row, marking the worst two-month stretch in two years.  Sales at retailers nationwide declined 0.2% last month, mostly because of cheaper gas and incentives by car dealers to drum up sales. Slower-than usual issuances of tax refunds may have also


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Markets Net Bearish Technically

Courtesy of Declan.

It has been a while since markets were net bearish, but the S&P, Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrials and Russell 2000 are all now net bearish in technical strength. Adding to this is a number of these indices have also broken from support channels. The best case for bulls is that markets shift sideways and work out the bearish technicals – building for the next rally. But if there is an acceleration down it could snowball in a manner similar to how markets rallied after the election. It’s not a time to buy, and it may not be a bad time to sell or short.  Long-term investors will probably stick as there is no way of knowing what may come – and an extended period of weakness is due which shouldn’t worry investors (the March 2009 low I still view as a generational low).

The S&P wasn’t the biggest loser on Friday and this was reflected in the relative improvement of the index to its peers. The downward channel could still play as a ‘bull flag’, but if there is to happen it will have to rally when it hits channel support just below 2,322.  Selling volume has been light, although there is a general distribution trend in On-Balance-Volume.

The Nasdaq managed to dig its nails in as it challenges March ‘bear trap’. If bulls were to try to grasp at something then this is the index to watch. The index finished just below the 50-day MA, but not far enough away to suggest a strong Monday could see this returned.

Hardest hit was the Russell 2000 as it made a decisive break of the consolidation triangle.  The ‘bear trap’ is still a support level to work but it’s not a strong one. The Russell 2000 also lost relative ground against the Nasdaq.

The Nasdaq 100 also lost channel support, but it’s leaning on the 50-day MA and this may offer a chance for bulls, but a move above 5,440 would be needed to restore confidence after the loss in the channel trend.  Contributing to the positive outlook was the uptick in relative…
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Good and Bad Accumulations

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

good-and-bad-accumulationsNot all ‘Causes’ or accumulations (or distributions) warrant a trade, some are good and some are not, it is the readers job to determine which are more Mr Hyde or Mr Jekyll.



The Law of Cause and Effect

In order for there to be an effect (change in price), there needs to be a cause. The effect will be in direct proportion to that cause. Best price moves occur when there has been enough time to allow for a period of accumulation or distribution (or in other words a cause).






More from RTT Tv










NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Thus, I affirm, every class of phenomena, whether in nature or in the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.”..



William D Gann





..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..



Spike Milligan





..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”



Peter Lynch





..”Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway”..



Warren Buffett





..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..



John Templeton











S&P Drops Below 50-day MA

Courtesy of Declan.

The good work from yesterday was undone with today’s selling.  The S&P posted a clear break of the 50-day MA on modest volume and will next be heading to test support of the declining channel – which at the moment looks more like a ‘bull flag’.  Technicals for the index are net bearish, but are close to a recovery. It might look worrying, but the index could benefit in the long run.






This selling was not limited to the S&P. Despite finishing on the 50-day MA after four days of gains, it wasn’t able to break through. Instead, another 1%+ loss was delivered.  The Russell 2000 is in consolidation triangle, within which is a ‘bear flag’. The 200-day MA is the next target.





The Semiconductor Index was more decisive in its action as it made a clear cut break from its tentative rising channel. The index gave up nearly 2% on today’s sell-off, and this could have implications for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.





The Nasdaq is coming back to the former ‘bear trap’ but hasn’t yet challenged. The 50-day MA is available to lend support, which also might encourage buyers. Selling volume was lighter, which may represent an easing in profit-taking, especially given support has held.





While today’s selling was worrying it’s still got a good chance of encouraging buyers to step in given the proximity of 50-day MAs (Nasdaq, Dow Jones) and support (Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100).  Shorts might look for expansion of selling in the S&P given it’s not near support and the risk:reward is better.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Russell 2000 at 50-day MA as Indices Mount Morning Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a good day for indices as early weakness gave way to sustained buying into the close. There was early morning weakness to set the tone but it didn’t last. The one index to rebuff this was the Russell 2000.  After yesterday’s respectable finish the index went on to rally back to its 50-day MA. The gains in the Russell 2000 were enough to trigger a ‘buy’ in the relative performance against the Nasdaq and MACD trigger ‘buy’. Momentum buyers won’t join the fun until 1,393 is breached, so another 20 points of gains could be on the cards before supply becomes a problem.






The S&P experienced a spike low as morning selling pushed the index well below its 50-day MA. However, it was able to recover to finish above the 50-day MA, but not before technicals turned net bearish. Can it break out of the 6-week channel consolidation?





The Nasdaq started the day near resistance, finished the day near the same resistance, but managed a picture perfect tag of its 50-day MA over the course of the morning. The stage is set for a challenge of 5,936 resistance, but it will need buyers to get there. Technicals suggest further gains are favoured, so it will be up to the market to deliver.





For tomorrow, look for today’s afternoon buying to continue into the morning. Should buyers come in to drive such an advance, then next will be to look for resistance breakouts.  At that point, momentum players could become a factor and trigger actions of short covering.  This trifecta of buying could deliver big gains.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Buyers Tried To Revive Russell 2000

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn’t the reaction two days of narrow trading had presented into Monday’s open, but the Russell 2000 made a good attempt at trying to rally.  However, it tagged the 50-day MA, then headed back to its starting point.  The only change on the day was the MACD trigger ‘buy’.  With two spike highs in less than a week the next move to look for is a challenge on the ‘bear trap’.






The S&P posted a third successive doji with the 50-day MA holding as support. Volume has steadily dropped, which runs the risk of seeing prices head lower in the absence of buyers (not necessarily active selling). There is a squeeze coming up with channel resistance converging with the fast rising 50-day MA.





The Nasdaq had a similar day to the S&P, instead, it has the support of the 20-day MA to lean on. Key resistance at 5,930 is the line to cross to generate a breakout – and the 20-day MA is putting the squeeze on.





For tomorrow, look for breakouts in the Nasdaq (for longs), or a drift below the 50-day MA in the S&P and Russell 2000 (for shorts).




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Apr 9, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

2 items of interest before we begin:

  • We will be emailing out a quick reader survey this week; this will be the first time it will be sent in email format and the first reader survey since we’ve changed to our weekly format.  Please take a moment to grade the content of our weekly content, thanks!
  • For those interested in forex trading, ForexBrokers.com (sister site to us here at StockTrader.com and StockBrokers.com) has published its first annual forex broker review. There were 20 international fx brokers included and a total of 5,236 data points assessed.

It was another week of “modest moves” in a year that thus far has been completely full of them.  The lack of volatility in 2017 has been both striking and at times record breaking.  (last week we noted the daily S&P change of 0.3% was the lowest since the late 1960s!).  For the week,  the S&P 500 shed 0.3% and the NASDAQ 0.6%.  Wednesday was the one day of significant volatility as solid early gains due to the ADP private sector employment data (+263K jobs created) was offset by selling following the release of the Federal Reserve minutes.  Futures slid Friday on the Syrian strike but recovered much of that before markets opened in the U.S. Friday.   No war of words at the Trump-Xi summit this week as both leaders projected everything as hunky dory.

This week’s review of some significant economic indicators:

  • Monday, ISM manufacturing for March fell to 57.2 from 57.7, though the employment index hit a six year high. A reading of 50 indicates economic expansion.
  • Tuesday, the February U.S. trade deficit shrank almost 10% to $43.6 billion , aided by an increase in exports to a 26-month high and a plunge in imports of automobiles and cellphones.
  • Wednesday, ISM non manufacturing for March fell to 55.2 from 57.6.
  • Friday, government data said employment was a big miss at just 98,000 jobs created (expectations were about 180,000 gained); but some analysts blamed weather.  Whatever the case reading too much into any 1 data point


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Quiet Friday

Courtesy of Declan.

Very little to say about Friday’s action; tight intraday spread on low volume was not going to send the world alight. The only index to post a modest gain was the Semiconductor Index.

The Semiconductor Index rallied from a minor support level marked by the big-one day loss in March (with a low of 986), but the rally was made away from channel support and never challenged the 20-day MA.

The Nasdaq 100 is lingering near its 20-day MA with resistance at 5,440 just over 20 points away.  Gains in the Semiconductor Index didn’t make their way to the Nasdaq 100, but it wouldn’t take much to repeat another breakout as was mounted last week.

The S&P is setting up a swing trade. A second narrow trade range offers a chance for a breakout/breakdown on a loss of Friday’s high and low. The presence of the 50-day MA suggests a rally is favoured, but don’t discount the alternative (as the counter move is likely to prove stronger if the index breaks below the 50-day MA).

The Russell 2000 is hanging on to its 50-day MA after the index retained Thursday’s gain. Technicals are poor, with the MACD trigger perhaps the best opportunity for a recovery. If the Nasdaq (Nasdaq 100) is able to breakout then Value buyers may begin fishing for opportunities in the Russell 2000 and component stocks.

Longer term, the Transport index is again feeling the pressure as it loses ground against the Dow Jones Industrial action.  As a weekly chart it’s a slow burner, but the relationship is a long way from the highs of 2014 and this is not a good sign.

Closer to home, breadth metrics are on the rise for the NYSE, which should see higher prices in the near term (again, favouring the long side of the market).

Momentum traders keep an eye on the Nasdaq 100, Value traders on the Russell…
continue reading





Alphabet Inc suffers distribution

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

alphabet-inc-suffers-distributionThere is something going on at GOOGLE.



Large down swings on high volume over the last 6 months. Kinda get the feeling the month end earnings report (April 27 2017) may have a few negative surprises. We have seen the stories that advertisers are unhappy with the shot gun approach used by google to apply advertising dollars. Some one is unloading!.



A high volume downswing can be bullish if the damage to the trend is not too bad and are infrequent, but when you see 5 down swings where the volume is greater than the up swing, you just have to conclude prices are being held up by the market makers to allow some big whale to sell at very good average prices.



Our readtheticker.com customised OBV tool (RTTOBV-Trend (Daily)) shows the trend has changed for the price volume pressure as it shows divergence. Warning, and suggest to investors be careful out there!



It is true however the Wyckoff law of Effort vs Results would suggest with all this volume on the down swing and it has yet to do serious price damage it can be considered bullish. This is true, however it still is not a great sign, while other stocks can be considered as they show better price and volume action health.



The point is the next high volume swing, maybe a feather that breaks the trend.





Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

GOOG




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion”..



Jesse Livermore Trading Rule





…“People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That’s nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance”…



Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig’s methods came, from Jesse Livermore).





..”it is better to have few stocks and to watch them carefully”…



Bernard Burach





..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..



John (Jack) Bogle





..“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”..



Joe Granville











 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Trump To Discuss North Korea In Sunday Call With China's Xi, Japan's Abe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While the world is focused on the outcome of the first round of the French election, which is playing out much as the market had largely anticipated with Macron and Le Pen set to face each other in the runoff round, the North Korea threat remains, and according to Reuters, Donald Trump will speak on Sunday with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping, citing a administration official.

The topic of discussion is expected to be North Korea.

Tensions have risen sharply with North Korea over its advancing nuclear and missile programs. Pyongyang said on Sunday it was r...



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Phil's Favorites

Bookies See Almost 90% Chance Of Macron Becoming French President

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

As results begin to trickle in (with pollsters showing Macron leading and official French Interior Ministry showing a Le Pen lead), betting odds (according to Betfair) are now giving Macron comfortably over 80% chance of becoming France’s next President.

As the evening has gone on and the picture becomes clearer, his odds continue to increase. The market is clearly expecting a ‘Front Republicain’ to form, as it did in 2002, to rally behind Emmanuel Macron and to deny Marine Le Pen.

Of course, bookies didnt quite get Brexit and Trump right...

...

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ValueWalk

SEC Says New York Advisors Falsified AUM to Entice Investors: Enforcement

By ThinkAdvisor. Originally published at ValueWalk.

SEC Says New York Advisors Falsified AUM to Entice Investors: Enforcement

The Securities and Exchange Commission charged a New York-based investment advisor, Hyaline Capital Management, LLC, and one of its founders, Justin D. Meadlin, with disseminating false information to prospective investors and clients in order to induce them to invest money with them. The SEC’s complaint, filed in federal court in New York, alleges that beginning in…

]]>

By Unknown (Stefeyboy at en.wikisource) [Public domain], from Wikimedia Commons

The post ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street gears up for busiest earnings week in years (Reuters)

Corporate America is set to unleash its biggest profit-reporting fest in at least a decade next week, with more than 190 members of the S&P 500 index .SPX delivering quarterly scorecards, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.

Draghi Says ECB Hasn’t Seen Evidence of Durable Eurozone Infl...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks at risk if this support gives ways, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Regional and Large banks have done well since the election. Of late they have lagged the broad market and find themselves testing what could be very important support levels. Below looks at regional bank ETF (KRE).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

KRE has experienced a rally that started in February of 2016. This rally picked up speed following the election last November, as KRE almost went verti...



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Insider Scoop

15 Biggest Mid-Day Gainers For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • China Digital TV Holding Co., Ltd.(ADR) (NYSE: STV) shares jumped 33.9 percent to $1.70. China Digital TV declared a special cash dividend of US$1.50 per ordinary share.
  • Carver Bancorp Inc (NASDAQ: CARV) shares surged 31 percent to $5.23.
  • CAI International Inc (NYSE: CAI) rose 21.3 percent to $18.75 after the company reported upbeat quarterly profit.
  • Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: PTX) shares...


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Chart School

Markets Rally, But Still Work To Do.

Courtesy of Declan

A positive response to Friday's selling helped erase those losses, but for many indices it wasn't enough to recover support or reverse technical 'sell' triggers.

The S&P is on the verge of a 'death cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs as the rally finished just below the 50-day MA. The consolidation channel remains in play and this should see higher prices in the latter part of the year, but for now, it's drifting down in a relatively controlled manner.
 

A second 'bear trap' could be ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchain And Us - The Documentary

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto invented bitcoin and the blockchain. For the first time in history, his invention made it possible to send money around the globe without banks, governments or any other intermediaries. The concept of the blockchain isn’t very intuitive. But still, many people believe it is a game changer.

The first 40 years of the Internet brought e-mail, social media, mobile applications, online shopping, Big Data, Open Data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things.

Information technology is at the heart of everything today - good and bad.  

Despite advances in privacy, security, and inclusion, one thing is still missing from the Internet: Trust.

...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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