Author Archive for Chart School

Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It has taken a few days for Small Caps to make their move but today was the day the Russell 2000 joined other indices in mounting a breakout. It was a clean breakout supported by positive technical strength – putting to bed the June ‘bull trap’. Watch for the second round of stop-whips with an intraday move (and recovery) below 1,430.






Other indices added to their breakouts. The S&P gapped and pushed on, backed by higher volume accumulation. Watch for a tag of upper channel resistance.





The Nasdaq gapped higher on higher volume accumulation. Today’s move puts some distance on the early June bearish engulfing pattern. As with the S&P it’s looking for a move to upper channel resistance.





The index most under pressure is the Semiconductor Index and it has yet to fully challenge the June bearish engulfing pattern.  However, with the Russell 2000 breaking today it’s now the only index not to challenge (and therefore is offering a ‘value’ opportunity).





The remainder of the week will be about protecting the breakouts. The value index does look to be the Semiconductor Index with the July swing low looking more and more like a significant bottom for the index.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Breakouts Hold

Courtesy of Declan.

While little happened over the last couple of days since the breakouts, enough was done to hang on to these gains.




Tech had the best of the action, pushing away from support and consolidating the bullish position. Volume wasn’t spectacular but not surprising given the summer season.






The Nasdaq defended breakout support with a successful backtest. Technicals are all in the green. More importantly, the bearish engulfing pattern looks to have been negated by today’s breakout on higher volume accumulation.





The S&P cleared breakout support on Friday and held its gains with further advancement in relative performance against Small Caps.





The only disappointment was the Russell 2000. While it was not a major loss and the breakout held the Russell 2000 did not fall back into its prior base.





For tomorrow, look for the continued defence of the breakout support.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.







Weekly Market Recap Jul 16, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Market bulls continue to make anyone even moderately cautious (hand raised) look a fool.  A technical breakout mid week on the indexes took the market out of a sleepy range that was looking a bit dangerous.    Monday and Tuesday were the normal sleepiness we’ve come to expect from this slow and steady grind up of 2017 but some fireworks Wednesday and Friday.   Earnings season began in earnest late in the week with major financial stocks reporting “meh” results but the market shook it off.  For the week the S&P 500 gained 1.4% and the NASDAQ 2.6%.

Janet Yellen had been SLIGHTLY hawkish the past few months but her Congressional testimony mid week was viewed as dovish and traders saw that as a reason to BUY BUY BUY.

Yellen said “the evolution of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal-funds rate over time to achieve and maintain maximum employment and stable prices.”  Yellen’s remarks come as other central bankers have been expressing a desire to taper easy-money policies that have been in place in the aftermath of the 2008-’09 financial crisis. A so-called more hawkish tilt by global central bankers also had led some to believe that the Fed might be encouraged to ramp up its pace of rate increases despite sluggish inflation.

“It seems like [Yellen’s] dialing back a little bit of the hawkish sentiment from last time,” said Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist at Voya Financial. “She’s back to looking at inflation a little bit more. The market was a little worried but she’s back to the same dovish Yellen.”

That’s the central banker we’ve all come to know and love!

Economic news light and non essential so we will ignore it other than retail sales on Friday which was ignored by the market despite being weak.

Sales at retailers fizzled out in the late spring after getting the season off to a fast start, likely dampening U.S. economic growth in the second quarter.  Sales at retailers nationwide fell 0.2% last month to mark the second straight drop and match the biggest decline


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Breakouts Abound

Courtesy of Declan.

The week finished with some tasty looking breakouts in Large Cap and Tech Indices. Best of the action was given over to Large Caps with volume perhaps the most disappointing aspect of these breakouts.




The S&P closed the week out with a respectable breakout on a new ADX ‘buy’ trigger. This followed a MACD trigger ‘buy’ earlier in the week. Monday will be about defending 2,450 and staying above that mark at close of business. Long traders should play for a move to upper channel resistance.






The Dow Jones Industrial Average also enjoyed a similar breakout, although this index has been underperforming relative to Tech averages. As for the S&P it will be important for the index to hold breakout support which in this case is 21,500.





Tech was another set of indices to do well on Friday. The Nasdaq followed the resistance breakout with a new near term high style breakout. The early June bearish engulfing pattern remains dominant but each days worth of gains eats into this helped by net bullish technicals. Relative performance is also working in Tech’s favour.





The Nasdaq 100 is not to be left out. Very similar performance to the Nasdaq with a relative advantage against the Russell 2000 (Small Caps).





The Semiconductor Index has done well to recover from its June bearish engulfing pattern although I would like to see the relative performance ‘bull trap’ (against the Nasdaq 100) taken out before the bearish engulfing pattern is broken. Early week action will give an idea on this. Other technicals are all bullish.





While Large Caps and Tech enjoyed their day in the sun, Small Caps continued to build pressure against resistance. Small Caps look like the index to lead into the second half of the year but bulls will have to wait for now.





Next week will be about consolidating the breakouts and waiting for Small Caps to follow suit. Should the latter happen I would look for other breakouts to soften as money rotates out of these indices into Small Cap stocks.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Gold & Silver; 16-year bull market support test in play, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Gold & Silver; 16-year bull market support test in play, says Joe Friday kimble charting solutions

Below compares the performance of Gold, Silver and the S&P 500 since July of 2001. Why compare the performance of the three starting in 2001? This is when Gold & Silver created a series of higher lows, starting a new bull market that lasted the following decade. From 2001 until 2011, Gold & Silver both outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 500% each! 

chart comparing Gold silver and S&P 500 kimble charting solutions

No doubt it paid to own Gold & Silver over the S&P 500 from 2001 to 2011. As we all know at this time, the performance between the three has done the exact opposite over the past 6-years, as it has paid to own the S&P and avoid Gold & Silver.  Is in now time to consider that Gold & Silver could be ending the 6-year bear market in metals?

Below looks at only Gold & Silver since the late 1990’s and why the price point in Gold & Silver are testing what could be historically important levels.

monthly chart of gold and silver, kimble charting solutions

 

The above chart reflects that Gold & Silver on a monthly basis are both testing 16-year rising support at this time. Despite Gold & Silver being lower over the past 6-years, this reflects that both are in long-term rising trends, where support is being tested.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; Support is Support until broken and both are testing long-term support at this time. What both do at this support test should send very important long-term messages about the metals space and will lead to wonderful opportunities.

If you would like to receive Power of the Pattern charts in the metals sector, you can receive them by being a Premiumor Metals member.

This information is coming to you from Kimble Charting Solutions.  We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decion-making and results

Send us an email if you would like to see sample reports or a trial period to test drive our Premium or Weekly Research

Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM





Tech Market Technicals Turn Net Positive

Courtesy of Declan.

Two days of gains have helped re-establish the bullish technical picture for tech indices, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. While the improvement was welcomed it didn’t come without a price.




The Nasdaq broke through declining resistance but also left it itself wedged beneath the former rising channel.  If there is a chance for shorts, then tomorrow could be it.






The Nasdaq 100 has also touched on former channel support – now resistance – offering a chance for shorts to launch an attack.





The Dow Jones continued its good form, albeit on a small gain as it shapes a bullish handle (off an earlier handle). While above the breakout resistance level of 21,550 it will need more volume to confirm whether the move is valid.





The Russell 2000 continues to be the index with the most potential energy to drive the next major market rally.  Today’s ‘hammer’ next to 1,430 sets the tone for a strong Friday. Momentum players should take note.





Tomorrow will either prove to be a victory for shorts with channel resistance reversals for the Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100 or a win for the Russell 2000 and an opportunity for a solid 1%+ breakout style gain. Those are the indices and trades to watch.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









This sector is ready to move!

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

this-sector-is-ready-to-moveThis sector is showing the price pattern known as the ‘heart’, it is ready to move. Last time we saw this pattern price doubled.



With reference to our swing trade idea of long Barrick Gold (Symbol:ABX) the sector is setting up again, for a big move. Get ready and time you entry!

 



Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Sector XAU


The theme song for this idea is:










NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader”…



Jesse Livermore





Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.



Nobel Laureate for Economics Paul Samuelson





..“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail”..



Benjamin Franklin





..”Money can’t buy you happiness but it does bring you a more pleasant form of misery”..



Spike Milligan





..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”



Peter Lynch











Semiconductors Find Some Traction

Courtesy of Declan.

Since my last update, there was a significant break and piecemeal recovery across many markets. Not all markets suffered to the same degree and new leadership could emerge.

The Semiconductor Index made steady gains after suffering the largest profit sweep in June. The bearish engulfing pattern remains the dominant pattern but the index managed to return above the 20-day and 50-day MAs (not to mention, the former rising channel). Relative performance improved against the Nasdaq 100 but it hasn’t yet challenged the ‘bull trap’ created after the bearish engulfing pattern.

Another index making positive inroads is the Nasdaq. It was able to find support at the slower channel line and only recently made it across the 20-day and 50-day MA.  The bounce hasn’t yet reached a point where it could be considered a decent swing low but the fact the bounce was off a support line is a significant positive. Added to this are the ‘buy’ signal in On-Balance-Volume and a return above the bullish mid-line for stochastics.

The S&P hasn’t reached channel support – a good place to look for a bounce. What it did do was finish with a ‘bullish hammer’ off the 50-day MA. This index is coming off a ‘bull trap’ which still looks to be in selling mode (relative performance is poor) but a push above today’s high would rank as a minor resistance breakout and be a reason for optimism

One significant event which occurred last week was the loss of rising support in the Russell 2000. This move, likely controlled by stop hits, has stabilised and represents a chance for buyers to take a punt on a new breakout coming soon. In this regard, 1400 would look to be key support.

For tomorrow, look for buyers to continue the good form of today. With many markets having fallen inside prior trading ranges it puts markets on a more neutral footing.  It’s probably going to take a couple of weeks for one side to assert dominance but for those markets closer to resistance a chance for fresh…
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RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

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Comment: Reggie Middleton “When Deutsche Bank Collapses, It Will Bring The Europe… youtu.be/Z6QJ-FATwVQ

Date Found: Monday, 17 October 2016, 01:44:44 PM

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Comment: H1B Visa USA secret weapon! The genius visa! ..”USA has the worst educational system on science”… youtu.be/uNVC9jCqRJs

Date Found: Saturday, 22 October 2016, 02:54:40 PM

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Comment: GOVT PANICKED! NO ESCAPE FROM DEBT COLLAPSE | John Rubino youtu.be/pFLlGcMatCE

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Comment: Catherine Austin Fitts-Clintons Addicted to Privilege youtu.be/HCeEzmmCd5c

Date Found: Wednesday, 26 October 2016, 04:30:15 PM

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Comment: Martin Armstrong comments: Called Brexit right, big trouble coming in 2017 with German and French elections. TRUMP will win popular vote, but the elites wont let him into the White House youtu.be/At3gdna4wbg

Date Found: Thursday, 27 October 2016, 11:19:43 PM

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Comment: Gold Cycle: Check!

Date Found: Friday, 28 October 2016, 02:22:27 PM

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Comment: Clif High and Datamining the Web. Way of the future and must watch. youtu.be/c4ULa63HbNA

Date Found: Saturday, 29 October 2016, 01:15:27 PM

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Weekly Market Recap Jul 09, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Some more volatility hit late this past week but any pullback of note (Thursday) still has bulls rushing in (Friday).   Modest moves Monday and Wednesday sandwiched the holiday on Tuesday.    The “rotation out of tech” continued most of this week:

“The rotation out of tech is dominating stocks and is the overarching theme in the market,” Mike Antonelli, equity sales trader at Robert W. Baird & Co. said. “People should not mistake rotation for volatility, and I am not terribly freaked out as investors are not selling everything equally.”

“Technology has four times greater impact on the averages than oil because of technology’s massive percentage of the capitalization of the S&P,” Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management Inc. said. “The amount of monies required to keep the megasized technology growth issues at current levels is gargantuan.”

Wednesday saw the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which indicated a reduction in the central bank’s balance sheet could begin soon.

Several members showed they’re in favor of starting a reduction of the central bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Holding those assets were part of the policy portfolio that the central bank had taken on while holding interest rates at historic lows.

A very nice upside surprise in economic data Monday as ISM’s manufacturing index rose to 57.8 in June, compared with 54.9 in the prior month, marking its highest level since 2014. A reading of 50 indicates expansion.  Thursday’s non manufacturing data was also quite nice:  the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 57.4 in June from 56.9 in May.

Friday’s employment data reversed some of the poorer data seen in earlier months.

The U.S. created 222,000 new jobs in June as hiring accelerated in the spring.  The increase in new jobs was the largest in four months and second biggest haul of the year.   Economists had forecast a rise of 180,000 and unemployment to hold at 4.3%.  The government also raised its estimate of new jobs created in May to 152,000 from 138,000. April’s gain was increased


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ValueWalk

Japan-EU Free Trade Deal Will Rival NAFTA In Size

By FactSet. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Earlier this month, the leaders of the European Union (EU) and Japan announced that they had an “agreement in principle” for a Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement. Having taken more than four years to negotiate, this new deal is expected to eliminate 99% of tariffs between the two partners and create an economic trading bloc comparable to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in size.

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

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Zero Hedge

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Nears All-Time High on Spike Above Daily Chart Downchannel Resistance

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) crushed shorts yesterday, smashing above the daily chart's downchannel resistance and soaring towards the all-time high around 3000. With yesterday's massive rally, the negative weekly MACD crossover has been proved a false signal.  Odds are quite good that a sustainable longer term BTC/USD bottom was found last week, especially with ETH/USD also strongly rebounding this past week.  Some consolidation can be expected today with daily RSI and Stochastics tiring, although with daily MACD just having positive...



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Phil's Favorites

German Citizen Arrested in Turkey on Absurd Charges: Merkel, EU Essentially Look the Other Way

Courtesy of Mish.

As noted by the Guardian and other sources, German human rights consultant Peter Steudtner was detained at a human rights workshop on Monday with five others including Amnesty International’s country director, Idil Eser, for allegedly aiding a terror group.

In response, Germany issued a meaningless statement urging “caution” to which the Turkish foreign ministry hit back, accusing Germany of “blackmail and threats” and “direct interference in the Turkish judiciary”.

Eurointelligence is spot on with its analysis of the situation.
...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges Above $2500 Following Goldman's Bullish Note As 'Civil War' Ends

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin is up 40% from its weekend lows as the combination of a bullish Goldman Sachs note on the virtual currency and a major sigh of relief that the potential 'civil war' over cryptocurrency's scaling solutions appears to be over (with over 80% of the hashrate currently voting for the protocol upgrade).

The entire cryptcurrency space is surging today...

...



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Insider Scoop

If The iPhone 8 Is Delayed, Will Anyone Care?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related AAPL Contract Manufacturers Are Joining Apple's Side As Qualcomm Legal Concerns Continue The Feds Hop In The Driver's Seat...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Small Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It has taken a few days for Small Caps to make their move but today was the day the Russell 2000 joined other indices in mounting a breakout. It was a clean breakout supported by positive technical strength - putting to bed the June 'bull trap'. Watch for the second round of stop-whips with an intraday move (and recovery) below 1,430.


Other indices added to their breakouts. The S&P gapped and pushed on, backed by higher volume accumulation. Watch for a tag of upper channel resistance.

...

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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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OpTrader

swing trading portfolio - week of July 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Immunotherapy: Training the body to fight cancer

Courtesy of Balveen KaurThe Ohio State University and Pravin KaumayaThe Ohio State University

An oral squamous cancer cell (white) being attacked by two T cells (red), part of a natural immune response. ...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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