Author Archive for Chart School

Short Covering Driving Gains in Semiconductors and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq 100 breakout cleared channel resistance, the fifth significant breakout in four months. All technicals are posting new near-term highs which also meant the short generated on the tag of the rising channel is negated.






The Semiconductor Index also enjoyed a substantial breakout as short covering drove traders out of their positions. Technicals see an improvement with a relative gain against the Nasdaq 100.





The Russell 2000 is the only index holding to the short-side. Today’s small losses have condensed into a coil which could spring either way. A move upside may be enough to consider a short cover (based on the assumption for an upside break outside the channel as has already occurred in Large Cap and Tech indices).  The short-side outlook remains heavily supported by the acceleration downwards in the relative performance against the Nasdaq and S&P.





Speaking of the S&P, there was little to add to today’s consolidation following its upside channel breakout.  My hunch says this is an early stage blowout top but the index is a long way from confirming this (and the run up could be a day traders dream).





For tomorrow, longs can continue to hold positions in the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq indices. Existing shorts can hold on to their Russell 2000 positions but should have covered the upside break in the Semiconductor and Tech indices. Swing traders can trade the break of the coil in the Russell 2000.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

gold-gann-angle-updateInvestors see this, higher support levels in metals and metal stocks, the big boys may be done with their tricks and a move up is near.



readtheticker.com has been watching the price move over the Gann angles with gold (GLD). Demand has proved it self so far, 2018 may see the red bearish 1×1 (down line) challenged near $140. Of course this does not mean another test of $125 is unlikely, the big boys are using all the tricks in the book to not allow the public to enjoy are profitable market up process.



Gann Angles mixed with cycles and Wyckoff is sound method to examine price action.





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Gold Gann




HUI Index, a bust above 100 is very likely





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HUI






Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, Cycles and Wyckoff Logic is the best way to secure better timing than most, after all these methods have been used successful for 70+ years.



NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…“It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of Vibration as I apply it to the markets. However, the lay man may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephones and phonographs are based”…



William D Gann





..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..



Anon





Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.



Bruce Kovner





..”The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule”



Warren Buffett





..The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell”..



John Templeton











Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals anymore, but the overall euphoria,” said Jason Browne, chief investment officer of FundX Investment Group. “When we do get negative moves we don’t hold them; the environment pushes people to buy dips. Will that last forever? Of course not. You have to hope people are being realistic.”

Economic news was sparse and not market moving.  But we’ll highlight retail sales:

Sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.4% in December, a fourth straight monthly gain.  Excluding automobiles and gasoline, retail sales also rose 0.4% last month.

Earnings season kicked off late in the week with some of the mega financials providing solid #s.

We’ll skip the crypto currency pricing this week as the money seems to have moved from the currencies themselves to any equity announcing “blockchain”.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 …via Jill Mislinski.

If you are a relative strength index person, this is an interesting thing to note…

The week ahead…

The next 3 weeks will bring the hot and heavy S&P 500 type earnings.  We’ll see how long this parabolic market can sustain.

There is a “looming government shutdown” that happens now every few months, until they kick the can down the road and every politician…
continue reading





Russell 2000 Tags Resistance As S&P Breaks (Again!)

Courtesy of Declan.

I forgot to mention last week that the S&P has reached the “15% of Profit Take” zone of historical price action relative to the 200-day MA dating back to 1950. If it reaches 1,653 it will be in the 5% percentile of historic action – a ‘strong sell’ signal.  The price tag came with a fresh breakout from the channel; the second breakout in 2018.






After Thursday’s strong performance the Russell 2000 tagged channel resistance, offering a chance for some profit taking and potentially a shorting opportunity too. Technicals remain healthy although the index continues to struggle in relative performance against the Nasdaq.





The Nasdaq also broke clear of its price channel. Unlike the S&P it hasn’t reached the 15% zone of historic price action so there is no immediate pressure to suggest a top is near.





The Nasdaq 100 also cleared its channel, negating the potential short position on the channel tag. A new short position will offer itself if it can generate a ‘bull trap’ (i.e. a return inside the rising channel).





Meanwhile, the ‘bull trap’ in the Semiconductor Index is still in effect despite the last two days of gain.





For tomorrow, watch for ‘bull traps’ in the indices which have broken channel resistance. The Russell 2000 is the best of the trading opportunities (as a short).




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Another Acceleration in the Rally

Courtesy of Declan

Another day of gains pushed Indices to new highs and offered a breakout from the accelerated channel for the Nasdaq but it was the Russell 2000 which took the biscuit.

The Russell 2000 added nearly 2% as buyers swooped in to take advantage of recent quiet action.  This follow on to the recent breakout sits the index up nicely for further gains.
 


The pick up in pace for the rally is probably most noticeable in the Dow.  The mid-December tag of channel resistance (which was a 'sell' / shorting opportunity) is looking very distant now.
 


A similar acceleration is taking place in the S&P although there is a new channel resistance hit for sellers/shorts to cling on too.  The sharp drop in relative performance against the Russell 2000 may further signify a shift in money rotation back towards more speculative stocks (and away from the S&P).
 

The Nasdaq looks to be following the lead of Large Caps as it steps outside of its current channel in yet another shift in acceleration. The index still enjoys good technical strength support so sellers/shorts haven't much to work with.
 

However, the sister index, the Nasdaq 100, could instead be offering shorts a chance to take advantage of this speculative shift in the rate of buying.
 


For tomorrow, continue to monitor index activity at channel resistance.  Any selling which returns an index below channel resistance leaves it open to a potent 'bull trap' and could be a decent – if aggressive – shorting opportunity.





Fresh look at Wyckoff Trend Reversals

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

fresh-look-at-wyckoff-trend-reversalsModern days tools to execute Richard Wyckoff principles.



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Investing Quote…



…”Mathematics is the only exact science. All power under heaven and on earth is given to the man who masters the simple science of mathematics.”…



William D Gann





..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..



Warren Buffet





..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..



Bernard Baruch





..”The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”..



George Soros







..”To cause high prices, all the Fed will do will be to lower the re discount rate…, producing an expansion of credit and a rising stock market; then when, business men are adjusted to these conditions, it can check, prosperity in mid career by arbitrarily raising the rate of interest. It can cause the pendulum of a rising and falling market to swing gently back and forth by slight changes in the discount rate, or cause violent fluctuations by a greater rate variation and in either case it will possess inside information as to financial conditions and advance knowledge of the coming change, either up or down. This is the most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed. The are private, conducted for the purpose of obtaining the greatest possible profits from the use of other people’s money. They know in advance when to create panics to their advantage, and when to stop panic.”…













Channel Resistance Tags for S&P, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan

Since redrawing channel resistance the S&P, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 now find themselves up against (accelerated) channel resistance. This may be viewed as an opportunity to take (partial) profits and/or sell covered calls. 

Buying volume for the S&P was modest and technicals remain strong but some pause in the buying would look preferable at this point.
 


The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 were a little more bearish given they both finished with bearish black candlesticks on higher volume 'selling'. Again, with the channel acceleration in play and a six-day sequence of gains, some profit taking would appear favored.
 

 


The Semiconductor Index popped its head above the 'bear flag' but the breakout looks to have failed. Shorts with a stop above 1,340 is looking like a good trade here. Technicals are firm although the index is again underperforming against the Nasdaq.
 

The Russell 2000 was the most boring of the indices.  It has yet to kick on from its breakout – trading within its broader channel and has suffered a large relative loss in performance.  This index sits in neutral territory; a drop below 1,545 would kill the nascent breakout and in itself open up a shorting opportunity. 


For tomorrow, watch for a retreat from channel resistance for Tech and Large Cap indices.
 





Weekly Market Recap Jan 7, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After slapping bulls all over the place in 2017, bulls decided to begin 2018 with… the same prescription.  Four days of rip roaring gains after a holiday Monday.   At this pace the market will go up every day in 2018!  For the week the S&P 500 gained 2.6%, while the Nasdaq was up 3.4%.   The DJIA closed at a record on the first four trading days of the new year, the first time it has done so since 1964.

Optimism over U.S. markets has been rising despite valuations that are seen as stretched by many measures. The latest AAII investor sentiment survey indicates that 50.5% of polled investors are bullish on the market, meaning they expect prices will be higher in six months. That’s the highest level in nearly two years, and significantly above the 38.5% historical average.

The Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday offered nothing new of value.

The Federal Reserve in December forecast three rate hikes in 2018, but minutes showed that policymakers were divided about the pace of rate increases.

Some thought three hikes were too aggressive and that they would tighten monetary conditions too soon. Meanwhile, others thought the pace of rate hikes was too slow. The market is pricing in the first rate hike of 2018 at the March meeting.

Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing release for December showed a jump to 59.7 from 58.2 in November.   The monthly jobs data was weaker than expected but no one really cares at this point.  One could even construe it as “good” as it keeps the Fed at bay.

The economy created 148,000 jobs after averaging gains of 232,000 in the prior two months. Economists had predicted a 198,000 increase in nonfarm jobs.  The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained steady at 4.1%.

The mediocre increase in new jobs in December stemmed almost entirely from a surprising 20,000 decline in retail employment that does not appear to jibe with strong holiday sales even for many traditional brick-and-mortar stores.  “That’s hard


continue reading





S&P Breaks out of Channel

Courtesy of Declan

The S&P broke upside from one channel to leave it another. This is the third such acceleration in the last six months, leaving the index prone to a parabolic (if not profitable) run. Buying volume was low, but technical strength is good.
 


The Nasdaq rallied just under 1% but hasn't yet tagged the new upward acceleration channel. Technical strength is excellent although the index is only slowly regaining its relative advantage from the S&P.
 


The Russell 2000 is still struggling a little to push itself away from breakout resistance (current support). The new 'bear trap' is still a bullish factor although the index is losing ground against the S&P and Nasdaq.
 

Traders should all be back from their holidays so we may get a better idea of the market sentiment for 2018 from Monday. Further gains still looking the most likely option.  Given market favourability towards Trump it's hard to see a positive response if he was to lose power.  For now, deal with known facts and given there is very little negativity to work with one must assume new highs are the path of least resistance.





Three Materials Stocks for 2018

Courtesy of Declan.

  • High Margin Lithium Sales to drive FMC Corp Higher
  • King-of-the-Hill DowDupont diversification covers its bases
  • Vulcan Materials sees benefits from Trump’s Infrastructure and Tax Bill


Dr. Declan Fallon is a blogger who trades for fun on eToro and can be copied for free.


. I invest in my pension fund as a buy-and-hold.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Beijing Outraged As US Warship Sails Within 12 Miles Of Contested Island

 

Beijing Outraged As US Warship Sails Within 12 Miles Of Contested Island

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

The new year is barely three weeks old and already the US Navy’s “freedom of navigation” operations are eliciting furious threats of retaliation from the Chinese military.

Since President Donald Trump took office one year ago, the Navy and Air Force have increasingly sought to test the Chinese military response in the Pacific by sailing or flying within a certain perimeter - usually 12 miles - of one of China’s disputed territorial holdings in the South China Sea, according to ...



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ValueWalk

How to Tell If Someone's Bluffing: Body Language Lessons from a Poker Pro

By jafransp11. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When it comes to body language, it’s never an exact art. The things I’m going to suggest, they’re all guidelines. But that said there are some certain things that as a poker player I’ll look for. And the most important thing is, first of all, to get a baseline of somebody. It’s impossible to tell whether the behavior someone is showing is meaningful or not if you don’t know how they naturally behave. So the first thing I’ll do when I sit down at the table is looking at what my opponents are doing when they’re not in a hand: are they naturally quite gregarious, are they confident when they interact with the waitress, or are they naturally quite quiet and shy? How do they sit? Are they naturally closed off? Are they very languishing”—...



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Phil's Favorites

'Dreamers' could give US economy - and even American workers - a boost

 

'Dreamers' could give US economy – and even American workers – a boost

Courtesy of Amy HsinCity University of New York

Demonstrators chant slogans during an immigration rally in support of DACA. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Earlier this month, hopes were high that a bipartisan deal could be reached to resolve the fate of the “Dreamers,” the millions of undocumented youth who were brought to the U.S. as children.

Those hopes ...



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Insider Scoop

Wall Street Previews Netflix's Q4 Earnings: Rising Subscriber Numbers Drive Bullish Projections

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NFLX Needham's Laura Martin: Amazon Prime Price Increase Won't Affect Netflix, Roku Upcoming Netflix Earnings:...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

R...



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Chart School

Short Covering Driving Gains in Semiconductors and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq 100 breakout cleared channel resistance, the fifth significant breakout in four months. All technicals are posting new near-term highs which also meant the short generated on the tag of the rising channel is negated.


The Semiconductor Index also enjoyed a substantial breakout as short covering drove traders out of their positions. Technicals see an improvement with a relative gain against the Nasdaq 100.

...

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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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