Author Archive for Chart School

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

dow-jones-gann-angle-updateWhen the Dow Jones moves the media must have an explanation for it. However the insiders have the nod to what is going on.

The media story so far is that since the TRUMP win, managers have been rotating their portfolios to represent TRUMP trends (lower taxes, go easy on the ‘too big to fail’ Wall Street banks, more jobs for Americans). Prior the election the stock market was set up for a HILLARY win, due to more of the same, status quo, FED support. But….

Using Richard Ney logic, the short answer is, stocks were always going up and the election results do not matter nor would a higher 10 yr bond or lackluster fundamentals. The real story is the market makers have been accumulating stocking inventory for a year, and they must mark up prices to sell their inventory at a higher level to the uniformed (public) to secure profits. Positive stories are fed to the media to promote the move as acceptable. POINT: Stock market moves are sourced from the inventory demands of the most advanced professionals.

The Dow Jones chart below shows the CAUSE and EFFECT in play, Dow 20,000 or 21,000 will soon to be in the media headlines.

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Dow Jones

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street is aware either.”..

William D Gann

..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..

Mark Twain

..”Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it”..

Warren Buffett

..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average.


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Large Caps Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday it was the action of Small Caps. Today it was the turn of Large Caps. Significant gains for both S&P and Dow took indices well past their recent swing highs.




The S&P registered an accumulation day on a solid gain of 1.3%. Technicals are all bullish. Will this see a measured move higher? 2,310 is the target.






The Dow made a significant gain, no seen since the election result. Can it tag 20,000 before the year is out? There is nothing in the way of price resistance to stop it. As with the S&P technicals are all bullish.





The Russell 2000 was not to be left out, adding nearly 1%. Another 3% points will see it hit the 5% zone of 5% historic action.





There is little on offer for shorts. Many will have been hit by today’s action, particularly in the Dow. Sellers will look to the Tech indices for guidance as these are the last to be restrained by recent high resistance.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Reader’s Question

Courtesy of Declan.

“…One thing though I would like you to shed light on: the price action we see nowadays: 1. Isn’t it irrational exuberance 2. How does it compare to 2000 and 2007/08 and 3. In the wake of QEs to date and now promised fiscal stimulus, how large a bubble we will end up creating”




Hi Solomon,




Thanks for the feedback.




[1] The March 2009 low was a ‘generational’ low for me (i.e. a buying opportunity like this is unlikely to occur again in my lifetime). I have to admit, it came a year early for me – but I think it’s a significant low which will stand the test of time.




[2] However, the broader market is in need of a significant pullback to mark a cyclical low; one much like in November 2011. The Russell 2000 was the only index to tag this in February 2016 and I think we are seeing the fruits of this now.  But all markets have to experience the sell off to definitively put a mark on this.  It has been 5 years since such a move last happened so we are (very) late to the next one.  When this happens, it will be a time to buy. You see a calendar for these events at the bottom of each post.




[3] There is nothing irrational about the current rally. We have been climbing a wall of ‘Trump’ worry




Declan







Russell 2000 in Take Profit Territory

Courtesy of Declan.

The Russell 2000 pushes again into the 10% zone of historic high prices (1,388 would be enough for the 5% zone last seen in February 2011). Back in 2011 the index rallied for another couple of months before it lost 30% from its high.  The next few weeks would be a good opportunity to take some money off the table to use on the next swing low.






On the Daily chart the ‘sell’ trigger in MACD reversed with a new ‘buy’ trigger.





Other indices gained, but none are as overvalued as the Russell 2000.  The S&P is close to breaking to new highs.





Although Tech indices still struggle to regain lost ground.





Santa looks like he will stay through Christmas, but the New Year could be a tricky time.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Higher Volume Gaps Higher

Courtesy of Declan.

An interesting start to the week. Markets gapped higher off the open and were able to add some distance to their starting points.




The Russell 2000 chalked up a near 2% gain as it makes a run on 1,347.  This was enough to finish the day at the high.  The MACD is still on a ‘sell’ trigger, but another day like today should be enough to reverse it.






The S&P pegged back some of its gains by the close of business, but it was above its opening price. The gain was enough to reverse the ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume.





The Nasdaq chalked up a 1% gain in a manner similar to the S&P. As an index which had suffered the greatest amount of selling last week, it still has some way to go to before it makes it back to 5,403.





For tomorrow, look for challenges on new 52-week (all-time) highs. If markets can push above it will have the makings of the seasonal ‘Santa rally’.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Dec 4, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The market needed a pause after the frenetic post election rally, and it finally arrived this week.  The pullback was mild as bulls would like.  This week’s “fear of the week” was Italy’s political referendum which happened today… and was rejected.

Italian voters were asked in a referendum to approve changes to the country’s constitution, which have been called the most sweeping since the end of World War II. The proposed reforms would cut the Senate’s size by two-thirds and reduce powers held by the country’s 20 regional governments. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi believes the changes will aid efficiency in parliament.

The reforms could also “make it easier to implement important legislation (such as measures to assist the country’s ailing banking sector) without the threat of a government collapse during periods of political disagreement,” said Peter Donisanu, global research assistant at Wells Fargo, in a note published Nov. 11.

So at times when the market needs to pull back a bit, it finds a reason; this was a pretty weak knee one but it is sufficient.

As I type this S&P futures are PLUNGING 0.3% on the “no” vote.  Hide the children.

danger

(only our older readers will understand the gif above)

The other main story was OPEC which finally agreed Tuesday to a cut in production…. on paper.  If any of their members actually follow through in reality and don’t try to cheat – who knows.

OPEC has agreed to cut daily production by 1.2 million barrels a day to 32.5 million.  The cut will come into effect in January. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia will tak thee biggest output reduction at about 486,000 barrels a day, according to Al-Sada.   On top of the 1.2 million-barrels-a-day OPEC cut, key non-OPEC producers have agreed to scale back their production by 600,000 barrels a day, with Russia taking on half of that cut.

Impressive, 1.2M barrels!??!  Pssst come closer, I’ll tell you a secret….. that is 1% of global production.

Economic data was largely positive this past week.  Monday, the second reading of gross domestic product showed the economy…
continue reading





Nasdaq 100 Net Bearish

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday’s action was relatively uneventful with indices finishing near the day’s lows, but none accelerating on Thursday’s losses.




The one change on the intermediate term time frame was the net bearish turn in technicals for the Nasdaq 100. The index remains range bound from August and has struggled as Semiconductors, Small Caps (and now Large Caps) have shone.






If there is a positive for the Nasdaq 100, along with other indices, it’s that the two-day action for Thursday/Friday has the look of bullish haramis (and harami crosses).  Traders can look to set up long-side trades with a stop below Thursday/Friday lows.




The Russell 2000 is heading towards its 20-day MA, a potential catalyst for a bounce. However, the index will have to deal with its recent MACD ‘sell’ trigger as technicals start to feel the pinch of last week’s selling.





Semiconductors made up some of Thursday’s lost ground as the index bounced off 840 support. Three supporting technicals are bearish (MACD, CCI and ADX), but stochastics haven’t yet signaled the end of the rally started in July.





Long term charts which had been favoring bears over the summer are finally reversing back in bulls favor (or at least adopting a more neutral stance).  For example, the Discretionary-Staples relationship has bounced strongly.





While the Dow Jones/Transports relationship is showing a solid rally for Transports (bullish for the economy)





It looks like markets are taking a real shine to Trump.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Semiconductors Hit Hard

Courtesy of Declan.

Internet troubles have limited me tonight, but the one chart I want to show is the near 5% loss in the Semiconductor Index.  Having escaped relatively unscathed from recent day’s selling it was a whirlwind of action for the index today.






This had obvious consequences on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq did relatively well to suffer just over a 1% loss.  However, there were ‘sell’ triggers for On-Balance-Volume and Directional Index. There was also an acceleration in the relative underperformance of the index to the S&P.  Bulls will look to the 50-day MA as a possible defense point.





The S&P managed to stay out of the crossfire, experiencing a relatively small loss with only a ‘sell’ trigger in On-Balance-Volume.





The Russell 2000 also took modest losses having been the first index to experience profit taking after extended gains. Technicals remain net bullish with no ‘sell’ triggers.





Semiconductors remain vulnerable further losses as Micron weighs on the index. Bulls can look to 50-day MAs to mount a defense, although such action would need to occur in early morning trading for the Nasdaq and Semiconductor Index as both indices finish with tags of these MAs.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









US 30 yr yield, your best defence is?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

us-30-yr-yield-your-best-defence-isIt is said that a rising stock market with rising interest rates is healthy ! Then why are there massive shipments of ‘Adult Diapers’ to Wallstreet (joke) ?

The cost of money ($USD) is changing
- Share buy backs will cost more
- Mortgage rates will rise
- Dividends will have to match this
- US Govt interest bill increasing
- ‘Deals’ just cost more more more!

Short Answer: This is not good.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
TYX

Remember the FED QE tends to see interest rates rise…so that wont help! Maybe Janet Yellen will say ‘We will do what it takes to save the dollar, and it will be enough!’

QE and Interest Rates

Are you ready for the next crisis? Take your pick!

Disclosure: Got both!

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Tape reading is rapid-fire horse sense…The Tape Reader aims to make deductions from each succeeding transaction — every shift of the market kaleidoscope; to grasp a new situation, force it lightning-like through the weighing machine of the brain and to reach a decision which will be acted upon with coolness and precision”..

Richard D Wyckoff

..”Money couldn’t buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy”..

Spike Milligan

My experience has been that in successful businesses and fund management companies, which performed well over the long-term, some courageous decisions were taken. Courageous fund managers reduce their positions when markets become frothy and accumulate equities when economic and social conditions are dire. They avoid the most popular sectors, which are therefore over-valued, and invest in neglected sectors because being neglected by investors they are by definition inexpensive. The point is that it is very hard and that it takes a lot of courage for a fund manager to avoid the most popular sectors and stocks and to invest in unloved assets. Finally, every investor understands the principle ‘buy low and sell high’, but when prices are low nobody wants to buy.

Marc Faber

..“One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the


continue reading





Small Caps Maintain Selling – Tech Joins In.

Courtesy of Declan.

Sellers kept pressure on the Russell 2000 with the Nasdaq and Large Caps also partaking in the profit taking merrymaking.




Large Caps had begun with a boost, the Dow in particular had started well, but was pegged back to finish with an inverse ‘gravestone’ doji. With sellers picking up the pace in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 there is a good chance the ‘gravestone’ doji will hold to its name and deliver trouble tomorrow.






The Nasdaq gave up a percentage point on higher volume distribution, giving up the breakout in the process. On-Balance-Volume is close to generating a ‘sell’ trigger.  There was a relative loss against the S&P.





The Russell 2000 didn’t experience the same degree of loss, but it did chalk up its third day of loss in a row. Despite this, it remains the lead performing index relative to the Nasdaq and S&P.





For tomorrow, look for more of the same. With just one day of profit taking under the belt there hasn’t been a decent run of selling since the election. Shorting opportunities won’t present themselves until there is a failed rally following such a sell off.  Remember, the Russell 2000 has already flagged itself for profit-taking as prices moved inside the 10% zone of historic highs relative to its 200-day MA.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold could blast off, if this resistance cluster holds!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the US Dollar/Gold Ratio over the past 30-years. When the ratio is heading lower, US$ is weaker than Gold/Gold stronger than US$. When the ratio is heading higher, US$ is stronger than Gold/Gold weaker than the US$

At this time, the ratio in the chart below, has created a Power of the Pattern setup, that is seldom if ever seen.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

A rare cluster of resistance is in play for the US$/Gold ratio at (1...



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Zero Hedge

Soft Coup Attempt Imminent? Furious Trump Slams "Secret" CIA Report Russia Helped Him Win

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Overnight the media propaganda wars escalated after the late Friday release of an article by the Washington Post (which recently admitted to promoted fake news itself in an attempt to smear other so-called "fake news" sites) according to which a secret CIA assessment found that Russia sought to tip last month’s U.S. p...



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ValueWalk

How to make 13% on your favorite song

By Sovereign Man. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Did you know that until June 28, 2016, the song “Happy Birthday” was actually copyrighted material?

Yes, I’m serious. And I’m talking about THAT Happy Birthday, as in the song we all sing at birthday parties.

The original melody was written by two sisters, Patty and Mildred Hill, back in 1893. But instead of “Happy Birthday” they called it “Good Morning to All.”

Photo by langll, Pixbay

The Happy Birthday lyr...



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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Rig Counts Jump in Wake of OPEC’s Production Accord: Chart (Bloomberg)

U.S. oil and gas producers increased drilling activity the most since April 2014 after OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years last month.

Oil Climbs as Saudis Show Commitment to Cut Output Before Talks (Bloomberg)

Oil advanced as Saudi Arabia was said to have informed its customers it will stand by its commitment to cut production before OPEC meets with producers from outside the group to discuss reductions...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Rig Counts Jump in Wake of OPEC’s Production Accord: Chart (Bloomberg)

U.S. oil and gas producers increased drilling activity the most since April 2014 after OPEC agreed to its first production cut in eight years last month.

Oil Climbs as Saudis Show Commitment to Cut Output Before Talks (Bloomberg)

Oil advanced as Saudi Arabia was said to have informed its customers it will stand by its commitment to cut production before OPEC meets with producers from outside the group to discuss reductions...



more from Paul

Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At A Party?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again, it's "Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo", so we follow up on Second Hand Stink with How to Poop At A Party. 

This hilarious video demonstrates how to control the Shituation when needing to Poopulate at a gathering, in no uncertain terms. 

We hope this recurring bathroom humor theme "shits" well with our readers. So please do relax, drop the cursor below, click and enjoy.

...

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Chart School

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

When the Dow Jones moves the media must have an explanation for it. However the insiders have the nod to what is going on.

The media story so far is that since the TRUMP win, managers have been rotating their portfolios to represent TRUMP trends (lower taxes, go easy on the 'too big to fail' Wall Street banks, more jobs for Americans). Prior the election the stock market was set up for a HILLARY win, due to more of the same, status quo, FED support. But....

Using Richard Ney logic, the short answer is, stocks were always going up and the election results do not matter nor would a higher 10 yr bond or lackluster fundamentals. The real story is the marke...

more from Chart School

Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 5th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Largest US Bitcoin Exchange Is "Extremely Concerned" With IRS Crackdown Targeting Its Users

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last Thursday we reported that in a startling development seeking to breach the privacy veil of users of America's largest bitcoin exchange, the IRS filed court papers seeking a judicial order to serve a so-called “John Doe” summons on the San Francisco-based Bitcoin platform Coinbase.

The government’s request is part of a bitcoin tax-evasion probe, and se...



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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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