Author Archive for Chart School

Market Cycle Top?

Courtesy of Declan.

About four years ago I went to a Bloomberg hosted talk on Market Cycles. I have been wracking my brain and Google trying to find the presentation and speaker name (which was available on line) but I thought the talk interesting enough to market in my Google calendar the date for the New Moon in October 2017, which was a focus point convergence of a number of market cycles and potentially a significant market top event (the countdown clock in the sidebar). The years have since ticked by and we are not just a couple of days from the October 2017 New Moon. The market has at least cooperated by sitting at new all-time highs but whether this evolves into a major top remains to be seen. I’m mad with myself that I can’t find in my pinboard or delicious bookmarks the link so all I can say is the day will soon be upon us and let’s see what happens from there…

Other than speculating on the big ‘what-ifs’ there is very little to say about the market in recent days. Action is tight and near resistance or just above major support. Volume has been modest. And with Trump pushing the media norm to outlandish there is very little a rational news piece can do to mark a contributing influence on the market. One consistent marker close to major tops is the unemployment level, which is near maximum employment and in recent years has been followed by a recession (Y2K Tech Top and 08 Credit Crisis).

Pring’s Inflation:Deflation Index plumbed to a new sub-0.40 zone in 2015 and it’s questionable how long it can stay here with what looks a clear spike low in 2016 and current retest; a move above 0.311 confirms the low and a new era of inflation.

My overall market watch shows the extreme high/low divergence between World Equity Highs and Commodity Lows. This chart suggests commodities are the go-to long play.

This chart I got from J.C. Parets on the relationship between Discretionary and Staples stocks also suggests we may be approaching a resistance level; although…
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Weekly Market Recap Oct 15, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Last week brought back the extremely non volatile market!  Nary a move of >0.2% up or down on the S&P 500 in any of the 5 sessions.  After some rallying the prior few weeks this is exactly what the doctor ordered for bulls; this was especially necessary for the Russell 2000.   For the week both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained 0.2%.

“Investors are following the tax-reform debate, as well as clues as to who will be nominated as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Currently, Fed Gov. Powell appears to be the favorite. He would offer continuity in terms of monetary policy, but his comments suggest a more favorable position with regard to regulatory reform,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist, at Prudential Financial.

Geez is this a great quote….

“There’s no reason to sell. Just sit and watch your stuff go up and that’s why trading volumes are low,” said Randy Frederick, managing director at Schwab Center for Financial Research, referring to measures of volatility, notably the CBOE Volatility Index hanging around historic lows, below 10, as stocks test records.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting suggested caution among policy makers on the next interest rate hike which the market had widely expected in December.

Several Fed officials said that they now believed it would be longer than they had previously thought to get inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target.  As a result, many noted that “some patience” was warranted in hiking interest rates in order to assess trends in inflation, the minutes said.  Hawks on the committee, like Kansas City Fed President Esther George, want the central bank to continue to hike, warning that delaying rate hikes could spark asset bubbles.  Doves, like Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari, have argued for no more rate hikes are warranted until inflation was clearly on the path toward 2% or higher.

Earnings (led by some financials) are kicking off:

According to FactSet earnings for S&P 500 companies are seen coming in at $32.34 a share in the third quarter, which represents growth of 2.81%


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Day of Consolidation

Courtesy of Declan.

Not a whole lot to say about today. Small loses didn’t erode prior gains but the tight action offers swing traders the best chance for gain; trading the narrow range coil offers an attractive risk:reward. Long-term traders need to wait for an oversold condition before building their positions.




The S&P is at channel resistance suggesting shorts have the edge. Stops go around 2,560.






The Nasdaq is caught in the middle ground of its rising channel. Again, swing trade for a target of upper/lower range of the same channel.





The Russell 2000 continued to drift off highs with the 20-day MA the first downward target and a chance for buyers waiting to buy the pullback.





The Nasdaq volatility index is also playing for a bounce which is bad news for the Nasdaq index and a key top could be just weeks away.





Watch for reactions from the tight coiling action of recent days. There isn’t a whole lot of room for a move without consequence, so the next tradable leg may only be 1 or 2 days away.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









SP500 Kitchin Cycle says trouble brewing – Update2

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

sp500-kitchin-cycle-says-trouble-brewing--update2A Richard Wyckoff investor has to make a judgment of where we are in the trend, start, middle or end before they can invest.



Previous Post: SP500 Kitchin Cycle says trouble brewing – Update



Where are we in the current trend ?



From the consolidation (re accumulation)  in 2016 we are not at the start, that is easy, so we must be in the middle or near the end. So far we have seen a massive 42% move and on any measure that is huge, and based on the dominate cycle within the SP500 this blog says we are near the end, or in the last move (say 10% if we are lucky) before we get another major consolidation. Nobody knows if the next consolidation will be defined as a reversal or continuation at this stage. Nothing moves in a straight line for ever!



New money into this market is surely high stakes poker. The defensive trades (gold, silver, bonds) all have bases set up for a price move(if SP500 reverses), the question is do market players continue to move money from SP500 to defensive positions.



NOTE: The price chart below with our RTTHurstDPO indicator shows price is conforming to the 900 bar Kitchin cycle.






Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

SPY cycles kitchin




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“It cost me millions to learn that another dangerous enemy to a trader is his susceptibility to the urgings of a magnetic personality when plausibly expressed by a brilliant mind.”…



Jesse Livermore





..”Until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”..



Arthur Miller, “The Crucible”

 [Contrarian Investing]











..”Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”..



George Soros





..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..



Bernard Baruch





The minute you get away from the fundamentals – whether it’s proper technique, work ethic, or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game.



Basketball Legend Michael Jordan.











Citi-Potential double if this resistance taken out

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Citi Group doesn’t have much to brag about from a long-term perspective, as it remains 80% off its highs back in 2006. Citi has a good deal to brag about, per the gains it has achieved from its 2009 lows (Up several hundred percent).

Below looks at Citi over the past 24-years and why the Power of the Pattern feels a critically important resistance test is in play

citi group weekly

A few months ago Citi faced a dual resistance test at (1), where enough buyers came forward and a breakout took place. Citi rallied nearly 20% in short order following the breakout at (1).

The rally over the past few months, has Citi facing another resistance test at (2), which comes into play at the $77 zone. If Citi can find enough buyers and strength to take out this key resistance zone, it could attract a good deal of buyers as the price of Citi waterfalled in price between the $150 and $77 level. Potential reversal of this waterfall pattern about to take place? We humbly feel what Citi does at current levels will be highly important for it months from now.

If Citi can find enough buyers and strength to take out this key resistance zone, it could attract a good deal of buyers as the price of Citi waterfalled in price between the $150 and $77 level. Potential reversal of this waterfall pattern about to take place? We humbly feel what Citi does at current levels will be highly important for it months from now.

Full Disclosure- Premium and Sector members have been long this stock for the past few months. What the Power of the Pattern will suggest to do with this holding going forward, will have a ton to do with how Citi handles the key resistance test at current levels. Our plan of action, first step is to bring stops up tightly to protect the gains that we have. If a breakout above the $77 level takes place, will be looking to add to the position and adjust stops.

The Power of the Pattern at work to save people time, improve decision-making & results.   

We identify high probability big pattern reversals and breakouts in global indices, sectors, commodities, several metals and select individual stocks

Receive Chris Kimble's research by email posted to his blog daily. 




Markets Sneak Higher

Courtesy of Declan.

It wasn’t a day for big moves but markets continued to post modest gains. The S&P registered an accumulation day on higher volume as technicals remain firm. The index is looking to accelerate beyond channel resistance,






The Semiconductor Index keeps rolling with no overhead resistance.  These gains should help the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Little in the way of technical resistance to consider








The one potential trade for tomorrow is the Russell 2000. The index is showing an inside day to an inside day; swing trade a break of the high/lows with a stop on the flip side.






For tomorrow, momentum traders can look to the $SPY and $COMPQ and trade in the direction of the trend (higher) while the $RUT trade is contingent on the break of the 2-day range.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Modest Selling

Courtesy of Declan

No surprise to see sellers step in and take profits with markets at or near all-time highs. The S&P remains at channel resistance with 2,553 still a stop level for potential shorts. Volume was light so there was no real conviction to the selling.
 


The Tech averages experienced regular selling without proximity to resistance or higher volume distribution. Technicals are in good shape with Tech indices outperforming Large Cap stocks.
 


The Russell 2000 experienced slightly bigger selling than the Nasdaq or S&P but there is still a long way to go before the first level of support is tested.
 


The Dow was the only index to experience higher volume distribution while experiencing the narrowest range on the day; a straight profit take.
 


For tomorrow, watch for additional profit taking on light volume – anything else (bar upside!) may prove worrying.





Weekly Market Recap Oct 08, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

This was the third week in a row where we saw major indexes post 4 gains out of 5 for the week! While none of the gains individually were massive, when you have 3 weeks in a row of almost identical behavior you start to walk into a market where some of the indexes need a rest to consolidate some gains!  The S&P 500 gained 1.2% for the week while the NASDAQ jumped 1.5%.

While the jobs report Friday (more on that below) got most of the attention this week economically, Monday’s ISM Manufacturing report was booming with a reading of 60.8, representing the highest level for the report since 2004.  Expectations were for 58.1.  Meanwhile Wednesday’s ISM non manufacturing rose to 59.8, compared with 55.3 in the prior period and marked its highest level since 2005. A reading of 50 or greater indicates expansion.

The economy “lost” 33,000 jobs in September, marking the first decline since 2010. Yet the decline was entirely due to widespread workplace disruptions caused by hurricanes Irma and Harvey.    The storms disrupted major economic centers in Texas and Florida, where as many as 1.5 million people were temporarily unable to get to work; that’s the most in 20 years.  The industry hurt the most was the restaurant business. Employment fell by a whopping 105,000.  The unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 4.2% from 4.4% and hit the lowest level since December 2000. The jobless rate was not affected by the storms, the government said.

Wages rose 0.5%, or 12 cents, to $26.55 an hour, likely reflecting a hurricane-induced bump – many low paying jobs in hurricane hit areas are hourly and thus when those people don’t work, average wages for the country rise.

“The Fed and the markets will just ignore this report,” said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. “If past-storms, particularly Katrina, are any guide, employment will rebound markedly over the next few months.”

The Senate approved a budget bill on Thursday. Republicans passed tax cuts through what is known as budget reconciliation, which requires just a simple majority in the Senate.…
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Tech Averages Finish Positive

Courtesy of Declan

Friday was a lacklustre day and there was little outside of Tech averages of interest. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 finished higher – holding their breakouts. Momentum and long-term holders have little reason to sell, but taking partial profits would be prudent.

Best of the action was reserved for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100; each finished at the highs of the day without doing much. The Nasdaq 100 holds its breakout along with the Nasdaq. What's key for these indices is that breakouts old.  Technicals are all bullish.
 

 


The S&P tagged upper channel resistance and Friday didn't make much progress beyond this. The pattern to Thursday suggests a Bearish Doji Harami which offers a chance for shorts to take a play with a stop above 2,553.

 


The Russell 2000 has stalled a little after substantial gains since August. The area where it stalled was a resistance area but the fact it has held these gains in tight action near highs suggests there is more to come for the coming week. Why technicals suggest 'short' this might be the better 'long' or swing trade. Technicals net 'bullish'.

 


For tomorrow; shorts can look to the S&P, longs may actually get some joy from the Russell 2000. Existing holders of the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 can probably stay holding their positions.

 

 

 

 

 

 





SP500 How much higher ?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

sp500-how-much-higherWho’s gonna pick a top, not us, but we can pick the next rocky zone?



More from RTT Tv










NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion”..



Jesse Livermore Trading Rule





..“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”..



Joe Granville





Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.



Bruce Kovner





..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..



Anon





..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..



Bernard Baruch











 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Is This The Bizarre Reason Why Tesla Is Struggling To Ramp Model 3 Production?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A little over a week ago, we noted the damning – if unsurprising – report from the Wall Street Journal revealing that Tesla's massive production miss on the Model 3, after only producing a tiny fraction of the 1,500 Model 3 sedans that it promised customers, might have been attributable to the fact that key parts of the cars were still being assembled by hand.

But according to a new report from the WSJ and ...



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Phil's Favorites

The pull of energy markets - and legal challenges - will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules

 

The pull of energy markets – and legal challenges – will blunt plans to roll back EPA carbon rules

Courtesy of Hari OsofskyPennsylvania State University and Hannah WisemanFlorida State University

Grid operators set the prices for energy markets and are structured to take the lowest prices – a disadvantage for coal and nuclear power. CC BY

On Oct. 10, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt ...



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ValueWalk

Indo-US Obnoxious Stance On CPEC: A Critical Appraisal

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Since  the beginning of work on China Pakistan Economic Corridor project (CPEC),  India is quite open in opposing this mega Project and now the US has also shown its weight behind India by saying that it too believes the route of corridor passes through a disputed territory — a reference to Northern areas of Pakistan. The statement has come at a time when Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif was in Washington and held series of talks with the US officials to normalize the tense relations. This new stance has started another debate and is undoubtedly going to further damage the bilateral ties, as it is profusely obvious now that US envision a greater role for India in the region. Pakistan and China are wo...



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Chart School

Market Cycle Top?

Courtesy of Declan.

About four years ago I went to a Bloomberg hosted talk on Market Cycles. I have been wracking my brain and Google trying to find the presentation and speaker name (which was available on line) but I thought the talk interesting enough to market in my Google calendar the date for the New Moon in October 2017, which was a focus point convergence of a number of market cycles and potentially a significant market top event (the countdown clock in the sidebar). The years have since ticked by and we are not just a couple of days from the October 2017 New Moon. The market has at least cooperated by sitting at new all-time highs but whether this evolves into a major top remains to be seen. I'm mad with myself that I can't find in my pinboard or delicious bookmarks the link so all I can say is the day will soon be upon us ...

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Insider Scoop

The BLUE And The BOLD; Analyst Suggests Pair Trade Ahead Of Year-End Catalysts

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related BLUE 30 Stocks Moving In Monday's Mid-Day Session Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 16, 2017 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

WTF is the Blockchain?

 

Source: TechiesPad

...

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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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