Author Archive for Chart School

…And Then Things Went Pear Shaped

Courtesy of Declan.

After days of steady gains, it was surprising to see the level of selling on show today; the last day like today in the markets was last December. How today plays out in the long term is still up for grabs as key trading ranges haven’t been breached. Shorts will be watching for opportunities, but what followed last December was another kick start for the rally – bulls have a reason for optimism.

The biggest reversal was in the Semiconductor Index. Yesterday’s 1.5% gain was whipped by a 4.4% loss. The attempt to break out of the rising channel was snapped away, putting the breakout gap from last week under pressure.

Next hardest hit was the Russell 2000.  This is of particular concern given the importance of speculative Small Caps in leading secular bull markets. The trading range with support at 1,345 is there to lean on and tomorrow could be the day this support is tested. Technicals are mixed, not helped by the sustained relative underperformance of the index against Tech averages. It’s still too early to call a top, but shorts may look to the next recovery rally as an opportunity to attack. In addition, while today’s percentage loss was greatest of the lead indices, the broader trading range remains unchallenged.

The S&P flashed a second ‘bull trap’, but this time the confirmation move against the rally was substantial and will not be easily reversed. The loss of both 20-day and 50-day MAs add to the pressure. To add to the trouble, there were ‘sell’ triggers for the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI.

Finally, the Nasdaq also had its ‘bull trap’.  Technicals are stronger for this index, a MACD trigger ‘sell’ the only reversal on this front.  There was higher volume distribution to accompany today’s selling. A move to the 50-day MA may be the chance for bulls to get aggressive, otherwise, long term holders may want to wait-and- see what happens.

For tomorrow, watch how markets react. The expectation is for a recovery given the extent of the loss, but profit taking could…
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Semiconductors Keep on Rolling

Courtesy of Declan.

It was generally a quiet day for the indices but the Semiconductor Index added another 1.5% as money continued to flow into Semiconductors. Today’s gain leaves the index up against resistance and ready to breakout.






The Russell 2000 closed near the day’s high as it looked to recover from the break of 1,390 support. However, a push above 1,400 would be needed to reverse the ‘bear flag’; if this is managed it would effectively confirm a swing low and open up for a move to 1,425.





The Nasdaq enjoyed an accumulation day of its own, although it added only 0.3% as part of yesterday’s breakout. Technicals are good and the index is well placed to enjoy further gains.





Just as a mention, the S&P experienced a small loss but not enough to reverse the challenge on last week’s breakout.





For tomorrow, look for more of the same.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Silver – Step one completed

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

silver--step-one-completedOur readtheticker.com RTTSteps indicator shows when a symbol may be getting wider support from the composite man!Lift off!

With silver (SLV etf) you can see STEP 1 looks like a successful build, rally in to start the build of the step, a correction that did not break the step, this means price is supported by the wider market.

This is one to watch as steps build higher.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
SILVER

Why, well consider this bubble warning fro Mike Maloney

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”TIME is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. … There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. … Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them. … The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles.” ..

William D Gann

..“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope”..

Bernard Baruch

..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..

Warren Buffett

Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.

Nobel Laureate for Economics Paul Samuelson

..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies


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RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Wednesday, 24 August 2016, 01:55:36 AM

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Comment: GSR Interviews LOUIS NAVELLIER – Aug 23, 2016 Nugget youtu.be/TI8LdNY2eBE

Date Found: Friday, 26 August 2016, 02:26:42 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: FEB balance sheet, Corporate share buy backs, ECB, BOC, BOE and BOJ money printing, plus the world now has ‘World Wide Plunge Protection Teams’, in short the Central Bank Put.

Date Found: Saturday, 27 August 2016, 10:23:42 PM

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Comment: No comment!

Date Found: Sunday, 28 August 2016, 03:05:02 PM

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Comment: Look away, nothing to see here!

Date Found: Tuesday, 30 August 2016, 02:46:26 PM

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Comment: World Wide QE by Central bankers, they own more and more junk!

Date Found: Wednesday, 31 August 2016, 12:36:58 AM

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Comment: John Rubino-Negative Rates Phenomenally Good for Gold and Silver youtu.be/uPFN00H3Zqs

Date Found: Wednesday, 31 August 2016, 02:33:05 PM

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Comment: Gold Forecast, a maybe!

Date Found: Wednesday, 31 August 2016, 02:49:43 PM

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Comment: Seven Ways to Get Higher inflation youtu.be/BbtosoFRig0

Date Found: Friday, 02 September 2016, 11:08:40 PM

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Comment: Secret History of Silicon Valley WW2 >> RADAR >> COLD WAR >> GOVT FUNDING >> PRIVATE FUNDING youtu.be/ZTC_RxWN_xo

Date Found: Sunday, 04 September 2016, 02:49:35 AM

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Comment: Eric Hadik: Precious Metals Market Taps The Break While Euro Crisis is Near youtu.be/-7BMk2lzsE8

Date Found: Sunday, 04 September…
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Semiconductor Index Post Follow On Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

While not one of the primary indices, Semiconductors experienced a strong day of gains – backed by strong technicals. This index is well on its way to shaping a new rally for 2017, following through from the rally kicked off on Trump’s election. Bulls have their index to follow for the summer.






Gains in the Semiconductor Index helped boost a fresh breakout in the Nasdaq on higher volume accumulation. This is good news for long term holders and trend traders with little on offer for shorts.





The under pressure Russell 2000 got some relief, managing a close above 1,390 support and opening up the opportunity for a ‘bear trap’; a solid long play opportunity with a stop below 1,379. This could be the sneak long play for the summer.





The S&P would also have registered a breakout, but the ‘bull trap’ has not yet been negated. There may be better plays out there, but the S&P also offers upside opportunity with today’s gain coming on the back of volume accumulation.







For tomorrow it may be about riding the bull train and taking advantage of long opportunities at different levels of the bull spectrum:




1. Momentum players can look to the Nasdaq and Semiconductor Index building on a breakout.


2. Value players can look to the Russell 2000 and its discount play.


3. Defensive players can look to the S&P negating the ‘bull trap’




Shorts have nothing to see.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Sad Snap (SNAP)! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

Feels like a broken record … and has been for a long time… but once again a shockingly low amount of daily volatility this past week, as aside from a quick jump down and then right back up Thursday, the indexes didn’t do much in terms of swings from day to day; or even intraday.  The largest move on the closing print for any individual day this week was 0.22%!  For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.35%.

More on the lack of volatility:

The S&P 500 has moved within a daily range of 0.5% or less for 13 straight sessions, according to Dow Jones data, the longest such streak since September 1995.

And even MORE:  Here is a 20 year chart of the volatility index (VIX) – you can see only in 2007 did we approach this low of a level.   Of course we know what happened shortly after THAT.   But we didn’t have all the world’s major central bankers pouring money into global assets back then.

A measure of fear on Wall Street ended at its lowest level since 1993 on on Monday.  The VIX closed at 9.77, off 7.6%, and marking its lowest level since Dec. 27, 1993.  The metric’s historical average is 20 and it has continued to slump as stocks have reached repeated records since President Donald Trump’s Election Day victory in November, which suggests to market participants that investors are becoming too complacent.

“No one really knows what it means to have such a low VIX at a time of such high uncertainty, rising rates, high valuations, and corporate profits that aren’t particularly strong,” said Jonathan Angrist, chief investment officer of Cognios Capital. “It is very unusual.”

When Apple (AAPL) is moving like this it is difficult to knock the NASDAQ down, as it’s a massive weight in the index.

Notice a trend?  Nearly all the big camp momentum favorites in the NASDAQ are seeing upward surges.

Tesla and Facebook aren’t far behind.  Until that…
continue reading





Small Caps See More Aggressive Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Trump’s Russian shenanigans didn’t move the market as much as such actions in the past may have done but not all markets escaped such interest.

The Russell 2000 took the brunt of Friday’s selling.  The ‘bear flag’ off former support, now resistance, followed through lower to bring the index back to a flat-lined 50-day MA.  Technicals are mixed with ‘sell’ triggers in the MACD and +DI/-DI. Relative performance accelerated lower after months of underperformance. Small Caps are key bull market leaders but there has been a distinct lack of interest from buyers for the last 6 months and this is not good news for other markets.

Weakness in Small Caps has started to sow doubts in other indices including a potential ‘bull trap’ in the S&P.  The point loss in the index was small so it won’t take much to revive the rally, but the index will need a kicker if Small Cap weakness is not to play a larger role in Large Cap performance.

The Dow Jones is similarly encumbered. Note the positive test of converged 20-day and 50-day MAs on higher volume distribution.  Monday will be important.

If there is a bright spot it’s the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Both indices are feeding off the recovery in Semiconductors. The latter index posted good gains from a ‘bear trap’ with technicals bullish. Last week’s breakout gap adds to the bullish momentum. An uptick in relative performance is coming off the back of a scrappy 6-months in its relationship to the Nasdaq 100; a break to new highs will be needed to confirm price action.

With the assistance of Semiconductors, Tech indices are outperforming with supporting technicals net bullish.

However, a moving average of new 52-week highs for Tech and NYSE are showing a slowdown too. This has not coincided with a pick-up in new 52-week lows, but this rally is starting to run on fumes.


continue reading





Dow Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

dow-gann-angle-updateLook away every thing is normal, the market is not going to crash (ya hope)!



A great feature of Gann Angles is that you draw from only one point on the chart and not two points like trend lines. This allows the chart reader to review units of time to units of price, which is excellent for comparing charts. Dow Jones Industrial price has returned to the master Gann Angle trend after a 12% or so correction last year, holding the solid red line (GANN 1×1 or 45 degrees) will be critical.





Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

INDU GANN


The rather fast recovery since the US elections should remind chart readers of the pattern below, no chart is immune. Maybe the sell in May and run away should be considered.





Tower








NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…”There is what I call the behaviour of a stock, actions that enable you to judge whether or not it is going to proceed in accordance with the precedents that your observation has noted. If a stock doesn’t act right don’t touch it, because, being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going.”…



Jesse Livermore





Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50 per cent without becoming panic stricken, you should not be in the stock market.



Warren Buffett





..”It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong”..



George Soros







..”Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway”..



Warren Buffett





..“Because of the extreme challenge, one must commit full attention to it.” Market speculation is “no different than trying to be a successful doctor or lawyer … you simply must devote yourself full-time to the study of your craft”…



Bernard Baruch











Underwhemling Response to French Election Results

Courtesy of Declan.

It was probably too much to ask for an election result which is closer to maintaining the ‘old’ status quo than spark anything radical. However, it does offer continuity for markets which should prove favorable down the road. While there was little reaction to the result, markets continue to maintain their bullish stance.




The S&P is above its trading range and holding its breakout with a narrow doji. Volume remained light in line with Friday’s.




The Nasdaq is knocking on the door of new highs and despite the narrow intraday range it closed near high of the day. Volume climbed enough to register as accumulation; good news for those looking for more upside.





Small Caps weren’t as fortunate, falling slightly, but not enough to undercut support. The decline was sufficient to trigger a MACD ‘sell’ but other technicals give bulls something to work (the MACD is also in a position to recover from its negative ‘sell’ trigger given it remains above the bullish zero line).





For Tuesday it will be important for the Russell 2000 to make back some of its lost ground. Further losses will put 1,390 support at risk and open up for a retest of 1,345. Markets look in better shape for Large Caps and Tech, and new highs have a good chance of emerging in the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq; the Nasdaq 100 having edged a new closing high today.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Oprah’s Happy and a Bear Market Hits the Makeup Industry! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

A quiet grinding rally marked the week and really could be a symbol for almost all of 2017.  Four days of minimal movement, led to a bit of a rally late Friday.  And there was your week!  The S&P 500 finished up 0.6% on the week, and the NASDAQ continues to outperform, pushing up 0.9%.  The theme of the year has been very little volatility.  That continued!

As of Friday, the S&P 500 moved less than 20 points in either direction eight days in a row, the longest streak since the Beatles first visited North America.

Economic news came in “well enough” (the very bad employment data of March saw some rubber band effect in April), the government kicked the can on federal funding until September, and the Federal Reserve did what everyone expected it to do – nothing.  With expectations for something in June.

In a statement, the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said a slowdown in first-quarter economic growth was “likely to be transitory” and described job gains as “solid.”

“They view the weak first-quarter GDP as ‘transitory’ and not something likely to impact policy. That officially puts two more interest-rate increases on the table,” said Matthew Peterson, chief wealth strategist at LPL Financial, who characterized the Fed’s stance as “pretty much as expected.”

Earnings have been on point:

Roughly 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far are beating earnings estimates and posting earnings per share growth of more than 10% year on year while revenue is up 6% year on year, according to Emmanuel Cau, an equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Cazenove.

Economic data we are interested in:

  • Monday – the ISM manufacturing index fell to 54.8 in April, while construction spending declined 0.2% in March.
  • Wednesday – ISM reported a nonmanufacturing index of 57.5, indicating growth, which was above the consensus of 56 of


continue reading





 
 
 

ValueWalk

Protest At Amazon Shareholder Meeting To Drop Breitbart

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

TUES 8AM: Plane, Protest At Amazon Shareholder Meeting Urges Retail Giant to Stop Funding Right-Wing Hate, Drop Breitbart

Care2, UltraViolet, MoveOn.org, SumOfUs, The Representation Project, Sleeping Giants Deliver 1.2 Million Signatures to Amazon Shareholder Meeting Calling on Amazon to Stop Advertising on Right-Wing Hate Website

By Szk7788 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 or GFDL], via Wikimedia CommonsSEATTLE, WASHINGTON — On Tuesday, May 23rd, a coalition of progress...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Jump As Dollar Dumps And Bitcoin Explodes To Record Highs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just because it made us laugh...

As Bloomberg notes, the S&P 500 climbed for the third consecutive session as President Donald Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia netted deals that lifted defense shares. The euro remains firm having pared gains from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comment referring to the single currency as “too weak.” The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 2.25% while gold rose and crude climbed to the highest in a month as Saudi Arabia said all producers agree on extending output cuts...



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Phil's Favorites

Catalonia Threatens Immediate Declaration of Independence if Spain Doesn't Approve Referendum

Courtesy of Mish.

The constitutional crisis in Spain may be coming to a head quickly according to a leaked document on a “Secret Law for Catalonia Independence” as reported by El Pais.

Spain’s Attorney General José Manuel Maza is set to examine the legality of a plan outlined by the regional government of Catalonia to activate immediate secession from Spain if the central government in Madrid stops it from holding a vote on independence – something it is planning on doing in Septembe...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Euro zone, IMF to seek compromise on Greek debt deal Monday (Reuters)

Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund will seek a deal on Monday on Greek debt relief that balances the IMF's demand for a clear "when and how" with Germany's preference for "only if necessary" and "details later".

Commodity Traders Are Stuck in a World Where Everybody Knows Everything (Bloomberg)

For commodity traders operating in the Information Age, just good old trading doesn’t ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Soars Above $2000 For First Time Ever

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is now up over 100% in 2017, amid global political uncertainty and increased interest in Asia, suddenly spiking above $2000 this afternoon for the first time ever...

That is a year-over-year gain of more than 350%. The move comes, as CoinDesk notes, amid a broader boost in the cryptocurrency market, which broke the $60bn barrier today. The increase has taken place amid strong surges from Ripple's XRP, which seeks to lower costs in enterprise cross-border payments, and ethereum's ether token, a cryptographic asse...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Chart School

...And Then Things Went Pear Shaped

Courtesy of Declan.

After days of steady gains, it was surprising to see the level of selling on show today; the last day like today in the markets was last December. How today plays out in the long term is still up for grabs as key trading ranges haven't been breached. Shorts will be watching for opportunities, but what followed last December was another kick start for the rally - bulls have a reason for optimism.

The biggest reversal was in the Semiconductor Index. Yesterday's 1.5% gain was whipped by a 4.4% loss. The attempt to break out of the rising channel was snapped away, putting the breakout gap from last week under pressure.

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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