Author Archive for Chart School

Good Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

In early morning action it was a clear swing to sellers after yesterday’s non-event. However, buyers came back and were able to make a good chunk of these losses into today’s close.




Large Caps remained the most attractive as defensive stocks often are during times of doubt. The S&P registered higher volume accumulation as intraday action proved to be relatively tight.



The Nasdaq suffered larger losses, but there was no distribution to go with it. Technicals were relatively immune to today’s action.






The Semiconductor Index suffered the largest loss as it found itself drifting back to channel support. Technicals are back on the defensive after today’s action which returned ‘sell’ triggers for the MACD, CCI and relative performance against the Nasdaq 100.





How will bulls defend today’s recovery? Watch for early selling in a repeat of morning action – particularly if it challenge’s Thursday’s lows (and therefore erases the losses from today). Shorts may even find an opportunity in the Semiconductor Index if it gives up loss from the rising channel.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Market Pause

Courtesy of Declan.

Nothing really to add to yesterday. Markets took minor hits, but there was little intraday spread. The biggest spread was in the Russell 2000 which was underperforming heading into today’s session. It reversed most of yesterday’s gains, but it has some way to go before it begins challenging the breakout






The New Lows and Highs is in a secular bullish pattern, and it will take continued pressure in spike lows to generate a sustained sell off – none of which is happening here.





But markets are a long way from a buying opportunity too.





For tomorrow, keep on watching…




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Semiconductors Have Best of Day’s Action

Courtesy of Declan.

The long weekend didn’t give bulls reason to pause. Instead, it was gains all around. The biggest winner was the Semiconductor Index as it logged nearly double other indices gains. This was enough to return ‘sell’ triggers in MACD and CCI back to ‘buy’ triggers. It also worked the index off rising support.






The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq gained alongside the Semiconductor Index. Little to say other than trail stops.






Small Caps posted gains which were second to that of the Semiconductor Index. While the Russell 2000 is slow to partake in the 2017 party, today’s action offered a sound tip of the hat to bulls.





Shorts have little to look forward too. Bulls need to ensure they don’t left profits slip.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Wednesday, 13 July 2016, 03:17:09 PM

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Comment: ..”But, investors truly wonder if the moves are sustainable. As we have stressed, the valuation on Utilities looks stretched…”… RTT: No kidding!!

Date Found: Monday, 18 July 2016, 03:28:53 AM

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Comment: Catherine Austin Fitts-The Debt Game Is Over youtu.be/feW-iDhkoiA

Date Found: Wednesday, 20 July 2016, 12:39:33 AM

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Comment: Deutsche Bank is Broke, Derivatives Collapse Coming – Jim Rogers Interview youtu.be/9PcBGZNjYMo

Date Found: Friday, 22 July 2016, 04:44:14 PM

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Comment: This will bust!…

Date Found: Saturday, 23 July 2016, 03:37:20 PM

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Comment: The baby boomers will sink the stock market before 2020 www.thefelderrepo…

Date Found: Sunday, 24 July 2016, 02:47:26 PM

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Comment: I’m Calling It (metals) youtu.be/I-ioPGgN56A

Date Found: Sunday, 24 July 2016, 03:24:11 PM

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Comment: Trump Policy Will Unravel Traditional Neocons , very smart play! youtu.be/K45-9oimA9w

Date Found: Sunday, 24 July 2016, 11:25:34 PM

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Comment: History : Repeat Did Verizon Just Signal The Top?

Date Found: Tuesday, 26 July 2016, 05:04:53 PM

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Comment: Government Sachs youtu.be/dlRzbBEAVFE

Date Found: Thursday, 28 July 2016, 01:55:24 PM

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Comment: BROWN PANTS WARNING …”Over the past half-century, we have never seen a decline in earnings of this magnitude without at least a 20% fall in stock prices, a hurdle many use…
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The Volume and Price Conundrum

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

the-volume-and-price-conundrumReading the tea leaves of a price and volume chart leaves most confused, here are some thoughts.



More from RTT Tv












NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be.  The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices break through the limit in either direction.”..



Jesse Livermore





..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..



Bernard Baruch





..“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria.”..



John Templeton





…“People somehow think you must buy at the bottom and sell at the top to be successful in the market. That’s nonsense! The idea is to buy when the probability is greatest that the market is going to advance”…



Martin Zweig (The inspiration behind a number of Martin Zweig’s methods came, from Jesse Livermore).





Novice Traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.



Bruce Kovner











Weekly Market Recap Feb 19, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The never ending rally continued at pace this last week, with solid gains Mon thru Wed, followed by some quiet consolidation the final 2 days of the week.   This action simply is a grind for any remaining bears to have to deal with as there is no relent.  As happened late in the prior week (“phenomenal” was the word), indexes rallied Wednesday as President Donald Trump said a “massive” tax plan would be coming in the “not-too-distant future.”  Yellen testified and Donald showed restraint in not tweeting about her.

“Even though we have social unrest and building geopolitical tensions, the market refuses to fall in any meaningful fashion, which means there remains a very strong underlying bid in the market,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer of 50 Park Investments. “This is due to a confluence of a few factors, including the earnings recession being over, a very strong bull market, and the hope for future prosperity under the pro-growth policies of the new administration.”

One thing to note is that while the senior indexes full of large caps continued to levitate, the Russell 2000 (smaller cap, U.S. oriented stocks) stalled again.  So bulls will call that a healthy rotation, while bears will say a warning sign.

During Congressional testimony mid week, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled that the central bank could gradually raise interest rates sooner rather than later.  Some market participants read Yellen’s reference to the Fed raising rates at “upcoming meetings” as indicating that an increase of benchmark rates at the Fed’s March meeting, which Wall Street has been pricing in as unlikely, is still on the table.   Fed member forecasts for rates suggest that the central bank will raise rates three times in 2017, but the market isn’t expecting an increase before the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting.

A quiet week of economic news but the Producer Price Index for January jumped by 0.6%, the largest rise since 2012, suggesting inflation may be heating up.   Wednesday, retail sales were reported to have gained 0.4% in January vs expectations of…
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Nasdaq 100 Piles on the Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another week of strong gains for the market, but it was the Nasdaq 100 which has really shone since the start of the year.  The Nasdaq 100 now sits 11.8% above its 200-day MA, with all technicals firmly in the green. The +DI line is at an extreme which is often associated with a reversal, although these reversals can be brief, as it was in November.






The S&P also finished the week near highs, but its relative performance has slowed – which isn’t necessarily bad as it marks rotation towards more speculative (and long-term bullish) stocks.





However, these speculative issues don’t look to be part of the traditional bull market leader, the Russell 2000, which is a concern.  The relative performance of the index has suffered throughout 2017, which needs to change if Tech indices end up going south – leaving the bull market high and dry.





The Semiconductor Index is rising along channel support, but with technicals showing mixed form it’s probably going to move to test the slower trendline sooner rather than later. But when it does, it’s going to threaten the strong rallies in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.





Other watch areas are the the long term relationship between Discretionary and Staples stocks. Bulls can take the most comfort from this as it doesn’t look like the rally will end anytime soon; or at least until expanding wedge resistance is tested (blue circle).  This relationship typically deteriorates before the market peaks.  It had looked like doing so last February, but it managed to recover.





Tomorrow is President’s day, so it will be Tuesday before we see what happens (and what further mud Trump can stir up).  I haven’t updated the Bottom Watch table, which I’ll do when the market finally puts in some form of top.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Feb 12, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The quite long in the tooth rally continues as we had 3 days of minor loses to begin the week; ending with 2 days of moderate gains.  We are in a bit of a quiet zone as most S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings, the Federal Reserve is not a “worry” for about a month and a half, and the major economic news of the month hit the prior week.  So the gnashing of teeth (or not) about government policy seems to be the main driver right now- late in the week it was announced some major new tax initiatives would be coming down the pike soon which the market liked.

President Donald Trump said Thursday that an announcement concerning taxes is on tap for the coming weeks, which his press secretary later said would involve an outline of a comprehensive tax plan. “Over the next two or three weeks,” Trump said during a meeting with airline executives, there will be an announcement that would be “phenomenal in terms of tax.”

“The market [is] trying to come to terms with whether the new administration and Congress will be able to work together effectively or not,” said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network. “Most of the positive expectations were based on the assumption that we were at the end of the gridlock era, and that the Trump administration and Republican Congress would work together.”  Events of the recent week have called that notion into question and the possible repeal of Dodd-Frank is looking less likely, he added.

For the bears:  The latest weekly survey of U.S. advisors by Investors Intelligence showed that the number of bulls rose to 62.7% last week, the highest level since December 2004. Investor Intelligence considers a number above 55% a danger zone, as it is a strong, contrarian warning of a potential market top.

Bespoke posted a nice chart on Tuesday showing that the S&P 500 has now gone 80 days without a 1% drop; the longest streak since 2006.  So make that 83 days as of Friday!

no1percentdecline

Now even more…
continue reading





Another Strong Finish For Markets: Russell 2000 Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

While volumes have hardly been inspiring, it has been another good week for markets.  Best of the action came in the Russell 2000, which has traded sideways since the start of December and didn’t kick on after the ‘huge’ rally following Trump’s election. Today’s 0.75% gain didn’t look like much but it did take it above the previous set of swing highs. It also helped in that it was supported by fresh ‘buy’ triggers for the MACD, Slow Stochastics and ADX






The S&P and Dow Industrials managed new closing highs; albeit on light enough volume and with relative under-performance against the Russell 2000. Having said that, On-Balance-Volume has consistently climbed higher, while the MACD generated a fresh ‘buy’ trigger above the bullish zero line. Slow-and-steady may win the race here.





The Nasdaq 100 has been the real high flyer. It trades 10.2% above its 200-day MA, which is getting a little rich, but any sharp decline on profit taking is likely to get bid up quickly; it would take a failure to post a new high following such a decline to install worry into bulls.





The index which may time the next decline is the Semiconductor Index. It generated a ‘sell’ trigger in its MACD and CCI as prices returned to rising channel support. Watch for a break of this channel next week. Should one emerge, then profit taking may spread into the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.





Breadth metrics have recovered enough to suggest there is still more upside. The relationship between Consumer Staples and Discretionary ETFs suggest there is room to run before getting to tag resistance at 1.65.





The Nasdaq Summation, Bullish Percents, and Percentage of Stocks above 50-day/200-day MAs are also on the rise, but not yet overbought. This rally could last well into the latter part of 2017.





For next week, it will be about tracking the gains of this week and watching for any heavier volume profit taking which may be followed by low volume buying.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Now is the time, the end is near

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

now-is-the-time-the-end-is-nearThis Dow Jones Industrial match up is too spooky, market sentiment is oooh so similar.

 Reversal Base
2003 – End of Dot.com sell off, rally started with WAR in Iraq.
2009 – End of AAA paper with the Lehman sell off, rally started with the FED/BOJ/BOC/BOE saving the world.
Very negative sentiment, world was about to end!

 Powerful Mark Up Trend
2003 to 2004 – The world didn’t blow up, US winning the War, stock prices return from where they fell.
2010 to 2015 – FED/BOJ/BOC/BOE saving the world every year, QE rolling over and over!

 Consolidation
2005 to 2006 – Large caps just went sideways, all the action was in the US property market.
2015 to 2016 – Oops QE does not really create demand. China wobbles on lack of world wide demand, spends reserves to pay for stuff. China is the demand engine for the world.

 Euphoria Blow Off Trend
2007 to 2008 – Low inflation, means lower interest rates that fuel property boom, happy days are here again, as the US housing market never goes down! Bad news is ignored, as it is different this time!
2016 to 2017 – TRUMPs spending plan will create a demand boom and will go easy on the banks, plus the FED/BOJ/BOC/BOE have the markets back, what could ever go wrong. Bad news is ignored, as it is different this time!

POINT: While a trend is extended in one asset class, look for asset classes that have been ignored or supressed. You can be sure the professional money managers are!

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
INDU

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net

Investing Quote…

..”Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader”…

Jesse Livermore

..“It’s not what you own that will send you bust but what you owe.”..

Anon

…“To me, the ‘tape’ is the final arbiter of any investment decision. I have a cardinal rule: Never fight the tape!”…

Martin Zweig

..”Money can’t buy


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Zero Hedge

The Revenge Of Comet Pizza

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Remember that one? It was about as weird as it gets. A meme generated out of the voluminous hacked John Podesta emails that some conspiracy connoisseurs cooked up into a tale of satanic child abuse revolving around a certain chi-chi Washington DC pizza joint. I never signed on with the story, but it was an interesting indication of how far the boundaries of mass psychology could be pushed in the mind wars of politics.

Sex, of course, is fraught. Sex and the feelings it conjures beat a path straight to...



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Phil's Favorites

Interest Rate Differentials Increasing Financial Market Leverage To Unsustainable Levels

Courtesy of EconMatters

We discuss the rate differentials between Switzerland, Britain, Europe, Japan and the United States and how this Developed Financial Markets carry trade is incentivizing excessive risk taking with tremendous leverage and destabilizing the entire financial system in the process in this video. You want to know what is behind weekly market records, borrowed money via punchbowl central bank liquidity. This ends badly every time Central Banks. You can run this model 1 Million iterations, and it plays out the same way, the financial bubble implodes in on itself where liquidity evaporates into nothingness. It is ironic that when the bubble pops, ...



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ValueWalk

Southeastern Asset Management: "We Welcome Unpredictability"

By Advisor Perspectives. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ross Glotzbach is Head of Research and a principal at Southeastern Asset Management. He serves as a co-manager for Longleaf Partners Small-Cap Fund and has been a research analyst at SAM since joining the company in 2004. He was an investment banking analyst at Stephens, Inc. in Little Rock from 2003 to 2004. He holds an AB degree from Princeton University with a major in Economics and is a Chartered Financial Analyst. Mr. Glotzbach has been a guest lecturer at the University of Memphis, is Chairman of Memphis Grizzlies Preparatory Charter School, and serves on the board of Ballet Memphis.

I spoke with Ross on February 15.

Southeastern Asset Management

In your fourth...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil; Energy stocks suggesting its about to fall, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below takes a look at the price action of Crude Oil, Energy ETF (XLE) and Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) over the past three years.

Could Energy stocks be suggesting the next big move in Crude Oil again? Which direction are they suggesting?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

At this time the intermediate trend in Cru...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil sold out of tanker storage in Asia as market slowly tightens (Reuters)

Traders are selling oil held in tankers anchored off Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia in a sign that the production cut led by OPEC is starting to have the desired effect of drawing down bloated inventories.

Saudi Arabia's Oil Wealth Is About to Get a Reality Check (Bloomberg)

Saudi Arabia has said oil giant Saudi Aramco is worth more than $2 trillion, enough to consume Apple Inc. twice, and still have room for Google parent Alphabet Inc.

The kingdom may have to ...



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Chart School

Good Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

In early morning action it was a clear swing to sellers after yesterday's non-event. However, buyers came back and were able to make a good chunk of these losses into today's close.

Large Caps remained the most attractive as defensive stocks often are during times of doubt. The S&P registered higher volume accumulation as intraday action proved to be relatively tight.

The Nasdaq suffered larger losses, but there was no distribution to go with it. Technicals were relatively immune to today's action.

...

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Members' Corner

People With Cats Will Understand?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob

Taking a "potty break" from "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo."

This week's subject is self evident, starring two lovable felines Cole and Marmalade in, People With Cat's Will Understand.


...

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Digital Currencies

It's Time To Beat Up On Credit Suisse and Their Woefully Misinformed Bitcoin Advice

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton at Zero Hedge

Credit Suisse has been posting cryptocurrency advisories over the last few weeks. They are quite one-sided, although couched in the appearance of objectivity. To explain why it's couched in the appearance of objectivity, and not actually objective, let me give you some background. 

The Obama administration enacted a law known as the Fiduciary Rule, as per Investopedia

The Department of Labor’s definition of a fiduciary demands that advisors act in the best interests of their clients, and to put their clients' interests above their own. It leaves no room for advisors to conce...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By Jean Luc

These GOP guys were so worried about Hillary's email server and now we find out that we had something close to a Russian mole in the White House. In the meantime, Trump keeps on using his unsecured phone, had high level conversation in his resort in front of dinner guests! It's getting so bad that rumors are now circulating that the NSA is not sharing information with the WH:

NSA May Be Withholding Intel from President Trump

By 

….Our spies have had enough of these shady Russian connections—and they are starting to push back….In light of this, and out of worries about the White House’s ability to keep secrets, some of our spy agencies have begun withholding intelligence fro...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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