Author Archive for Chart School

Mixed bag of tricks; but good chance of market swing lows

Courtesy of Declan.

The damage was done premarket and value buyers were quick to take advantage. The index which benefited the most was the Nasdaq. It started today just above the 50-day MA and rallied off that. Volume wasn’t great and the technical picture didn’t really improve, but action like today’s can prove to be a good starting point for a swing low.






Despite the gain in the Nasdaq, Breadth metrics are weakening but are neither overbought nor oversold.  The next strong swing low will likely take a tag of the light green line.





The S&P actually held to a small loss, but it made a firm defense of its 50-day MA.  The intraday spread was not as great as for the Nasdaq, but the 50-day MA test is a working point for a swing low.





The Russell 2000 also staged a recovery, but not enough to make it above resistance. Today’s closing hammer is an opportunity to mount a rally tomorrow, with a stop on a loss of today’s lows.





Today’s actions fit with a swing low, but confirmation is needed with a series of higher closes over the next few days. Shorts were left hanging in a day were prudence proved to be the better course of action.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Mar 26, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Tuesday’s long overdue >1% selloff in the S&P 500 broke a very long and rare streak in the S&P 500.   The S&P 500?s streak without a 1% down day was the longest since May 18, 1995!  A marginal close lower Monday was followed by a 1.2% drop Tuesday (the NASDAQ fell 1.8% that day).

“I think that investors are kind of starting to discount the likelihood of the immediacy of [President Donald Trump’s] policies and the enthusiasm has come off the boil as a lot of his policies got mired in the legislative process,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. “Investors are not throwing in the towel but they are resetting their expectations.”

According to Bespoke, there have been only 11 instances since 1928 where the S&P 500 went over 100 days without a 1% loss.  If you believe history will repeat from a very small sample size, things still will be bullish from here.

On average during the week, month and three months following the first decline during those periods, the broad-market S&P 500 tends to end higher.  For the week, the average gain is 0.65%, advancing 8 out of 11 times. The average return after a month is 2.34%, with returns positive in 9 out those 11 occasions. After three months, average returns are about 2.44%, boasting gains in 8 out of those 11 periods.

The defeat of “repeal and replace” healthcare had some doubting whether the corporate tax reform – seen as one of the major legs of this market’s rise – may be at some risk down the road.

“The trading has nothing to do with the health-care aspects of the bill, and everything to do with what it means for tax reform, infrastructure spending, the general ability of these guys to get things done. A lot of the rally has been based on the expectation that these things will get done. If you bring that into question, a lot more risk enters the market,” said Ian Winer, director of equity sales trading at Wedbush Securities.

“At a time when the S&P 500 is


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Semiconductor Index Again At Resistance

Courtesy of Declan.

All indices were again testing resistance with small gains, but not enough to challenge a break of supply. Shorts have been presented an avenue of opportunity in the Semiconductor Index with a bearish black candlestick at the convergence of the former rising channel, and the hashed blue line connecting the swing highs dating back to December.  Technicals are a little scrappy, but there is still a MACD trigger ‘sell’ alongside a ‘sell’ trigger in CCI.

The Nasdaq 100 also finished with a black candlestick (as well as a ‘spinning top’), right on 20-day MA resistance. The higher volume does not represent accumulation, but is more in line with churning. The MACD has a well established ‘sell’ trigger, with On-Balance-Volume close to a ‘sell’ trigger.

Another shorting opportunity can be found in the Russell 2000. Friday’s gain showed a consecutive day with an upper spike finish; these spike highs mark supply at the earlier swing low from March and trading range lows of January/February. Aggressive shorts could take a punt here with a stop above 1,363.  More cautious traders may want to wait for a test of the 20-day MA which lies just 20 points above Friday’s close.

Longs may want to take a look at the S&P. It finished slightly down on Friday, but it will soon be leaning on the 50-day MA.  Volume was light, so there wasn’t concerted effort to unload on Large Cap stocks. Technicals are weak, and if Slow Stochastics [39,1] was to drop below the bullish mid-line (50) it would mark a net bearish turn in technicals.

In terms of worries, the relationship between Transports and the Dow Jones Industrial average is again under pressure; with oil prices weakening Transports should be reaping the benefits but this is not the case. As a bellwether for the economy the lack of participation in the Transport index suggests a cyclical turn in the economy, which is typically lead by weakness in the indices. If this is the case, then early declines in indices are likely to continue.


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Indecision Strikes

Courtesy of Declan.

It was no real surprise to see indices slow down in their recovery. Across the board doji mark a balance between buyers and sellers. The one index which bucked the trend a little was the Russell 2000. It staged a modest recovery which brought it back to former support turned resistance. However, technicals remain firmly bearish, and will stay this way even if there are additional gains.



The S&P closed on light volume with a doji below resistance. The narrow intraday trading range offers a low risk opportunity with a break and stop on the flip side. Tuesday’s selling suggest bears have the best chance to pushing it lower.





It was a similar story for the Nasdaq. Today’s doji closed on resistance much like the S&P. The technical picture is a little healthier than the S&P which may make a sell off more difficult to trigger.





Shorts may also want to look at the Semiconductor Index.  A MACD trigger ‘sell’ plays alongside a ‘sell’ in CCI. With the index under pressure, a move back to the slower rising trendline would not seem unreasonable at this point. #






For tomorrow, look for bears to twist the knife and try and break today’s tight action. Bulls would do well to continue to follow action in the Russell 2000; another day like today (three-in-a-row) would firm up a swing low and offer a basis for further gains.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Semiconductors Recover at 20-day MA

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday’s selling didn’t follow through with additional losses, instead, indices dug in at lows and managed to recover some of yesterday’s selloff.  The best recovery came from the Semiconductor Index. It gained over 1% as it bounced off its 20-day MA. However, it wasn’t enough to stop a ‘sell’ trigger in the MACD and CCI.






Next is the Nasdaq 100. It staged a recovery, but not from a typical support level. Unfortunately, it has a MACD trigger ‘sell’ from early March and a new ‘sell’ trigger between the -DI and +DI, but what was particularly noticeable was the bullish uptick in relative performance against the Russell 2000. If bulls are to lead, this is the index to do it.





The Russell 2000 had a quiet day. It has struggled since the ‘bull trap’ in February and today’s action was simply a pause in proceedings. Having said that, optimists will look to January’s swing low at 1,341 and today’s swing low at 1,335 as a successful support test and an opportunity to mount a rally.





The S&P posted the smallest gain and didn’t have a natural support level to work off. Technicals are also net bearish. If buyers post gains in the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq, then the S&P should benefit. But, if there is a sniff of weakness, then I would expect the S&P to suffer the most.





For tomorrow, bulls will need another day like today; a same or higher open followed by consistent gains finishing with a higher close. If markets are unable to make advances off the open (e.g. finishing with a doji), then I think Friday could be a rough day for all markets.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Seniconductor Shorts Gifted Their Positions

Courtesy of Declan.

For those who took advantage of the resistance test in the Semiconductor Index; there was a picture perfect test of the hashed blue line resistance and secondary break of former rising channel support.  The Semiconductor Index finished bang on the 20-day MA so there may be a little (big?) bounce tomorrow. If buyers can’t defend the 20-day MA then the 50-day MA is next.






The S&P did not experience the biggest loss, but it did undercut the recent swing low. In fact, the relative performance of the index against the Russell 2000 kicked on in the S&P’s favour, but it may not be enough. The next logical test is the 50-day MA at 2,326. Today was also marked by significant distribution and a ‘sell’ trigger in





It was a similar story for the Nasdaq as it undercut the swing low. Volume climbed in distribution (as it was for other indices) with a new ‘sell’ trigger in +DI/-DI. The only hang-on for bulls is bullish stochastics. The 50-day MA at 5,736 is looking like a good place for buyers to return to the index.





The Russell 2000 was the weakest index coming into today, but today it gave up close to 3% as sellers swarmed the index after having long said goodbye to its 20-day and 50-day MAs. The next question is whether it can defend 1,342; if it can’t, then it’s about looking at the 200-day MA.





For tomorrow, given the extent of 1-day losses over the last 6-months (not many), the likelihood of a rally is quite high. The indices hardest hit – the Russell 2000 and Semiconductor Index – are most likely to post the biggest gains. However, if there is not a positive reaction in the first half-hour of market action, then these same indices will be most likely take the biggest losses.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









SP500 machine off day

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

sp500-machine-off-dayToday the market has fallen 27 pts (so far) on the SP500, it looks like a machine off day!



Here are some charts from our private RTT Plus blog over the past two months.



The Golden Ratio is very good in picking price judder bars when a market is in new ground and has no resistance.





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Goldien Number






Maybe the realisation TRUMP plans may take a little longer than expected, we may see a similar price action to Reagan first year. Or maybe its just the ECB talking of higher rates with all the banking issues they have, and how the many legs of the octopus may reach the US banks derivative books. (Note: Banks are selling off hard, just after a period of large insider selling by bank bosses)





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Reagan first year




Or course we all have seen topping patterns before, wide range up into new ground to bring in the uniformed, wide range down as the informed distribute to the uniformed.





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Market tops








NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..” If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole”..



Jesse Livermore Trading Rule





..”Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”..



George Soros





..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..



John (Jack) Bogle





..”October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”..



Mark Twain





..”If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”..



Warren Buffett











RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Friday, 12 August 2016, 03:33:10 PM

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Comment: Worldwide Debt Bubble & Currency Collapse | Marc Faber youtu.be/tL3FaNI3ImE

Date Found: Friday, 12 August 2016, 06:39:20 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: The Deception of the A/D Line youtu.be/CPQyyHufnnI

Date Found: Saturday, 13 August 2016, 03:23:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ..” Buffett’s favorite valuation yardstick “….RTT: Stocks are over valued! Simple, its a SELL!

Date Found: Saturday, 13 August 2016, 03:27:43 PM

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Comment: Recession Indicator: www.thefelderrepo…

Date Found: Saturday, 13 August 2016, 03:29:26 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ..”A German Bank Finally Caves: Will Charge Retail Investors A Negative 0.4% Deposit Rate”… RTT: Got gold!

Date Found: Sunday, 14 August 2016, 02:03:01 AM

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Comment: Keiser Report: MUST WATCH! youtu.be/-aCVzWnJZ8U

Date Found: Sunday, 14 August 2016, 09:58:34 PM

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Comment: ZH..”In fact, the hoarding of cash in China corresponded with the top in 1999/2000, and the top in 2007…”” RTT: China M2 YOY change sync with SP500…tic tic

Date Found: Tuesday, 16 August 2016, 01:29:13 PM

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Comment: Maloney Calls It: RECESSION HERE NOW youtu.be/M1He-bpM8MI

Date Found: Tuesday, 16 August 2016, 01:34:59 PM

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Comment: TPP – Trump does have a point on this! youtu.be/xBeQvpFTvqU

Date Found: Tuesday, 16 August 2016, 02:00:00 PM

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Comment: WikiLeaks – The US strategy to create a new global legal and economic system.…
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Slow Start to Spring

Courtesy of Declan.

Further indecision in the markets as a lack of participation kept volume and intraday price changes to a minimum. The biggest hit came to the Russell 2000. It lost just over 0.5% as profit taking struck the index more so than the Nasdaq and S&P. It wasn’t a significant reversal, but it keeps dip buyers on their toes.






The S&P did little. Small losses on light volume with little change in technicals. Not much more to say.





The Nasdaq experienced small gains and volume was a little heavier than experienced in the S&P, but like the S&P, there was no technical change.  The impact of today’s action on the broader Nasdaq picture was minimal.





The only index to post a decent gain was the Semiconductor Index. Aggressive shorts may start looking at this tomorrow, but if it breaks the hashed blue line it could push on to the upper rising channel resistance (currently out of the displayed chart range).





For tomorrow, eyes will be on the Semiconductor Index. If the latter can break higher it will suggest the Nasdaq could follow suit and break higher.  The tight intraday range over the last few days makes setting stops relatively easy, but note once this range breaks there is likely to be run on the stops – irrespective of which side of this range the Nasdaq breaks – making the whipsaw risk high.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Mar 19, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After a rare down week in 2017, indexes returned to gains albeit mild this past week.  Almost all the action was contained on Wednesday when the market gained nearly 1% with much of that happened post a (widely expected) Federal Reserve announcing a quarter rate hike.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lifted a key short-term interest rate for the second time in three months, but in a sign of caution, the central bank stuck to its forecast for just two more rate hikes this year.  The bank pointed to steady U.S. growth, an improving labor market and greater confidence among consumers and businesses to justify its decision to raise its fed funds rate to a range of 0.75% to 1%.   The vote was 9-to-1. The president of the Minneapolis Fed preferred to leave rates unchanged.

The Fed also noted a recent uptick in prices has resulted in inflation “moving close” to its 2% target, another critical component in its decision. The bank’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, rose at a 1.9% pace in the 12-month span ended in January — more than double the rate as recently as last summer.

At this point I believe even most bulls would love a 3-5% pullback to get re-positioned as it’s been a VERY long rally post election with nary a pullback of significance.  But the 2 major indexes are just hanging in there.  This current move without a 5% pullback is over 3 times as long as average since the 2009 bottom!

The S&P 500 has grinded higher for 182 trading days without a 5% pullback, the longest such streak since Feb. 11, 2004, according to Dow Jones data. Over those 182 days, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 19%.  Since the start of the bull market — not counting the current run of trading days without a pullback of 5% or more — the S&P 500 has averaged going about 56 sessions before it pulls back 5% or more

On the economic front, Tuesday the government said producer prices jumped in February by 0.3%, above consensus expectations of 0.1%,…
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Zero Hedge

Rand Tumbles For Second Day After Zuma Says He'll Fire Gordhan

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One day after the South African rand tumbled on the suprising report that president Zuma had ordered his finance minister Pravin Gordhan to cancel roadshow meetings with investors in the UK and US and return home on Monday, overnight the rand plunged for the second day in a row, after the 74 year old president told senior leaders of the South African Communist Party that he plans to fire Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.

The rand weakened as much as 2.9% and was at 12.8757 to the dollar after sliding as much as 3.2% a day earlier.  The government’s rand-denominated bonds due 2026 fell, dri...



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ValueWalk

Heller House Up 9.4% Net, Likes Italian Trusts

By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.


Please login - Not subscribed? Get our adfree exclusive content for only a few dollars a month. It also helps us fund our operations so think of it as supporting quality journalism. You are also welcome to donate

The post Heller House Up 9.4% Net, Likes Italian Trusts appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Producers Consider Output Cut Extension as Support Grows (Bloomberg)

Oil producers pledged to consider extending their pact limiting supply, as half a dozen nations said more time was needed to drain swollen stockpiles.

Oil Speculators Can't Dump Rally Bets Fast Enough Amid Glut (Bloomberg)

The bullish sentiment following OPEC’s deal is almost all gone.

...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Producers Consider Output Cut Extension as Support Grows (Bloomberg)

Oil producers pledged to consider extending their pact limiting supply, as half a dozen nations said more time was needed to drain swollen stockpiles.

Oil Speculators Can't Dump Rally Bets Fast Enough Amid Glut (Bloomberg)

The bullish sentiment following OPEC’s deal is almost all gone.

...



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Chart School

Mixed bag of tricks; but good chance of market swing lows

Courtesy of Declan.

The damage was done premarket and value buyers were quick to take advantage. The index which benefited the most was the Nasdaq. It started today just above the 50-day MA and rallied off that. Volume wasn't great and the technical picture didn't really improve, but action like today's can prove to be a good starting point for a swing low.


Despite the gain in the Nasdaq, Breadth metrics are weakening but are neither overbought nor oversold.  The next strong swing low will likely take a tag of the light green ...

more from Chart School

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 27th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Bonds; Critical change of direction in play?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Since the summer of 2016, stocks have done very well and bonds have been thumped, as rates have risen sharply. Is it time for these trends to take a break? Below compares the performance of the S&P 500, with the popular bond ETF TLT over the past 9-months.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The performance spread between stocks and bonds over the past 9-months is a big one! Rare to see the spread between the two...



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Members' Corner

More Natterings

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

[Click on the titles for the full articles.]

A Quick $20 Trick?

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Last time out, Sinbad The Sailor, QuickLogic.
  • GlobalFoundries, Jha, Smartron and cricket.
  • Quick money, fungible, demographics, QUIK focus.

Last Time Out

Monetary policy is just one form of policy that effects capital,...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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