Author Archive for Chart School

Rallies Slow As Semiconductor Selling Eases

Courtesy of Declan

Markets experienced early gains but gave them back by the close of business. Given the mini-rally of the past five days, some of the indices are looking vulnerable to a new round of selling.

The S&P finished with a narrow inverted hammer on low volume but at new highs. A move back to the newly accelerated channel is looking favored.
 


The Nasdaq also finished with a narrow doji but wasn't able to make new highs.  It's already close to one channel but looks more likely to reach down to the slower channel.
 


The Russell 2000 had the best of today's action and looks to be attracting buyers at the expense of other indices. Of the lead indices, it looks best positioned to rally as it continues to challenge its 'Bull Trap'.
 


Semiconductors remain the one index which didn't enjoy the recent run of buying but the failure to undercut 1,211 also gives bulls something to work with. If there is a rally over the next few days it may be enough to start a challenge of 1,342; stops on a loss of 1,231.
 

For tomorrow, sellers have the S&P and Nasdaq to work with. Buyers have the Russell 2000 and maybe the Semiconductor Index to work with.





Small Caps and Semiconductors Still in Shorting Territory

Courtesy of Declan.

While it was good day for Tech and Large Cap Indices it was a more muddled day for the Russell 2000 and Semiconductor Index.




The Russell 2000 wasn’t able to enjoy the fruits of what was low key buying experienced in other indices. A second doji in a row gives shorts something to work with as the ‘Bull Trap’ continues to influence buyers behavior.






The Semicondcutor Index was able to post similar gains as other lead indices but hasn’t yet done enough to challenge its 50-day MA.  However, it’s a good shorting rally which can be attacked unless the 50-day MA is breached decisively.





The S&P managed to post new all-time closing high on low volume. It sets up for a move to channel resistance. Existing longs have little reason to sell and shorts require something to attack, so look for more upside to follow. Technicals are back net bullish.





The Nasdaq managed to reverse the bearish black candlestick from Friday and reason enough to push any shorts entering this morning out of their position.





For Tuesday, shorts should keep focus on the Semiconductor Index and may be able to find joy in the Russell 2000 using a relatively tight sto. Longs could look to the Nasdaq and S&P to continue their runs to channel resistance.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Dec 10, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Before we talk about the stodgy ole stock market, anyone see that Bitcoin?  $11K last week – $16K this week…. and as I write this bitcoin futures are up over $18K. Just another week in the life…. (here is what you need to know about bitcoin futures)

Back to your regularly scheduled program… the S&P 500 rested a bit while a small correction rolled through the massive winners of 2017 in mega cap tech land, but in the end all was well again by Friday.

“The Nasdaq Composite Index was getting a little frothy, so it’s not surprising to see that some details in the proposed tax bill that would impact tech companies turned out to be a catalyst for a selloff in these stocks over the past few sessions,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.

The retention of the corporate alternative minimum tax in the Senate version of the Republicans’ tax bill has been seen as a factor in tech-stock selling. The House’s bill repealed the corporate AMT, but in a last-minute switch before passing its bill early Saturday morning, the Senate decided to keep the provision.

Still good sailing otherwise… for the week the S&P 500 gained 0.35% while the NASDAQ fell 0.1%.

“Getting the tax plan done will still be a challenge, but it doesn’t seem as impossible as it once did, and now there’s optimism that it could happen before the end of the year, which means it could be made retroactive and change the liability for companies and individuals for this year as well as next, which would be a positive,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab.

In economic news, ISM Services fell to 57.4 in November from a 12 year high of 60.1 in October.  The U.S. created 228,000 jobs in November, surpassing the 200,000 that had been expected, according to the nonfarm payroll report. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% while wages…
continue reading





Semiconductor Index Offers Shorting Opportunity at 50-day MA

Courtesy of Declan

While most indices were able to post small gains it was left to the Semiconductor Index to post a small loss; leaving a bearish engulfing pattern at its 50-day MA and an ideal opportunity for shorts to take advantage of the new (intermediate) downward trend. In such a scenario look for stops above the 50-day MA. The flip side, if there is an early push above the 50-day MA then these same short-stops are likely to trigger an acceleration in the rally and bring fresh buyers in a new long trade; a long trade working off oversold conditions.
 


Not much of interest from other indices. The S&P rallied in modest fashion which gives existing longs more leeway should bears make a return.
 


The Nasdaq closed with a 'black candlestick'.  This is typically bearish and given its proximity to the recent all-time high is in itself a shorting opportunity. Unlike the Semiconductor Index there isn't the same lead-in bearishness or 50-day MA to lean on but with a stop on a break above Friday's highs it's a doable shorting opportunity.
 


Finally, the Russell 2000 pushed back into last week's 'bull trap' but there is still plenty of work to do before longs can negate it. However, shorts don't have a clear play as the risk:reward isn't great given the spike high would have to be factored in. The net result is probably another small gain. Note the MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger along with a bearish -DI/+DI.
 


For Monday, a flat open or gap higher which fails to gain momentum after the first half-hour will offer itself as a good shorting opportunity for both Semiconductor Index and Nasdaq.  If markets can hold gains after the opening half-hour then a string of short covering moves is likely for the Semiconductor Index and the Russell 2000 is probably another edging in favour of bulls.
 





Time for a funny

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

time-for-a-funnyMany countries who are neighbors, have digs at each other.



Taking a dig at the Aussies.



Asking an Aussie to work the weekend with his mates.








A ‘smoko’ is a union tea break for blue collar workers. A song from a Aussie kid!










NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..”Anyone who buys or sells a stock, a bond or a commodity for profit is speculating if he employs intelligent foresight. If he does not, he is gambling.”..



Richard D Wyckoff





…..“I measure what’s going on, and I adapt to it. I try to get my ego out of the way. The market is smarter than I am so I bend.”..



Martin Zweig





..”Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception”..



George Soros





..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..



Bernard Baruch





..”It’s easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled”..



Mark Twain











Tape reading – Price volume wave analysis improved

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

tape-reading--price-volume-wave-analysis-improvedA single bar is not enough, multiple waves are required to review the ticker tape.



More from RTT Tv










The demo chart in the video.





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BMY




NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…”When I couldn’t play according to my system, which was based on study and experience, I went in and gambled. I hoped to win, instead of knowing that I ought to win on form.”…



Jesse Livermore





After a question on how to become a better investor professional Mr Munger responded, ..“Read history, read history, read history.”..



Charlie Munger



..“Successful speculation requires staying on top of changes in industries and companies that either create new industries or improve on existing industries. The majority of your profits will come from these two … The shrewdest traders throughout history all adapted the skill of reactionary change, as the market constantly presents new and different opportunities.”..



Bernard Baruch





..”The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them”



Peter Lynch





..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..



Warren Buffet











Tech Indices Dig In At Support

Courtesy of Declan.

It was a relatively quiet day for markets so today was more about the working status of potential trade setups.




Tech Indices are still holding to a bullish set up with both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 at channel support having enjoyed small gains today.  Stops can go on a loss of today’s lows if looking to take advantage of the support test.







The S&P saw a slow down in the losses. Today’s narrow range offers a pullback buying opportunity with stops on a break of today’s lows and a confirmation buy on a break above today’s highs.  Action in this index over the last three days has been very positive (especially given the selling in Tech indices). The index relative performance has also seen an improvement.





The Russell 2000 wasn’t so lucky as the November breakout struggles. The convergence of 20-day and 50-day MAs is offering a support opportunity but it’s not a clear buyers play as the MACD is on the verge of a new trigger ‘sell’.  Other technicals are also weakening along with a relative performance loss.





For tomorrow, look for opportunities in the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P.  The Russell 2000 may become interesting if there is a spike and particularly if the spike low comes with a close above the 50-day MA.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Russell 2000 Breakout Under Pressure

Courtesy of Declan.

The Russell 2000 break of 1,520 is under threat with today’s loss. Next up is converged 20-day and 50-day MA support but such a test will confirm the breakout loss and open up for a new trading range opportunity. However, a loss of 1,450 would bring the August low into play and suggest a more significant top is in play.






The Nasdaq looked to confirm support at the accelerated channel line, although technicals are still at recent ‘sell’ triggers. Volume was light and relative performance is moving lower so keep stops tight to today’s lows.





The S&P also lost ground but it still has the benefit of relative out-performance against the Russell 2000 and outside of an On-Balance-Volume ‘sell’ trigger technicals are still bullish.





The Semiconductor Index didn’t lose further ground although technicals remain weak. There is still a good chance for a bounce but the risk:reward remains vulnerable to whipsaw.





For tomorrow, play for a bounce off channel support with the Nasdaq. On the flip side, the Russell 2000 is playing for a potential short play.  The S&P remains a hold until there is a more defined trend reversal in either the Nasdaq or Russell 2000; the latter in particular.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

dow-jones-gann-angle-updateThis kinda looks like an Eiffel Tower rally.



Since Nov 2016, this has been BUY the rumor of the Trump tax plan, and maybe now its SELL the fact as the good news was very much over priced. Stock strategists know taking owner ship of a stock market rally is never a good idea, as what goes up 30% can come down 100%, Trump should never put his name on this rally as he will own it in the public eyes when it goes down. Does this make the Dow Jones political with the looming 2018 mid term elections? If it does it could be very interesting in 2018.



The price action is so fake, giant fast moves higher never happened before Nov 2016, so why now, is it the HFT’s doing all the buying? Do they work just as good on the down side, maybe not. This forecast is a dead cert, 2018 will not see the CBOE VIX under 10 for the entire year.





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Dow Jones Gann


Its on the table …



Dow pattern






NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



…”They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.”..



Jesse Livermore





..”Money couldn’t buy friends, but you got a better class of enemy”..



Spike Milligan





In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.



Benjamin Graham





..”Markets are designed to allow individuals to look after their private needs and to pursue profit. It’s really a great invention and I wouldn’t under-estimate the value of that, but they’re not designed to take care of social needs”..



George Soros







..“I buy on the assumption they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years” and “Much success can be attributed to inactivity. Most investors cannot resist the temptation to constantly buy and sell.”..



Warren Buffet











Semiconductor Index Continues To Sell Off

Courtesy of Declan.

After Friday’s sell-and-recovery it had looked like there was an opportunity to play a bounce, particularly for the Semiconductor Index. However, the reality proved to be different.




Instead, sellers maintained the run of form from Friday and pushed the Semiconductor Index right down to Friday’s low – undercutting the 50-day MA in the process.  Monday’s close delivered a net bearish turn in technicals. The slower trendline connecting the July-August swing lows is the next target down.






Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 suffered in sympathy with the Semiconductor Index.  Selling action in the Nasdaq left the index at faster rising channel support.





The S&P finished with bearish cloud cover on higher volume distribution.  On-Balance-Volume closed with a ‘sell’ trigger but other technicals are still positive and relative performance was able to gain ground despite the down day in the index.





The Russell 2000 closed with a spike high which is typically viewed a reversal candlestick. The one aspect in its favor was the relative tick higher against the harder hit Tech indices. Although bears really have the advantage here.





Where Friday was about firming spike lows as swing lows; Monday has now become a marker for swing highs and the chance for shorts to play for a longer decline.  The risk:reward isn’t great but rallies back to Monday’s highs can reduce the risk and offer reasonable short entry opportunities. Lower targets are channel support and 200-day MA. If you are long-only focused trader then the Nasdaq at its narrow channel support could see benefits if markets open flat or gap higher.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Swedish Housing Bubble Pops As Stockholm Apartment Prices Crash Most Since June 2009

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Even though Sweden’s property bubble is not the longest running (that accolade goes to Australia at 55 years), it is probably the world’s biggest with prices up roughly 6-fold since starting its meteoric rise in 1995.

Of course, as we noted last month when the SEB's housing price indicator, which measures the difference between those who believe prices will rise and those who expect t...



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Phil's Favorites

Fascism's return and Trump's war on youth

 

Fascism’s return and Trump’s war on youth

Courtesy of Henry GirouxMcMaster University

Donald Trump’s policies represent a particular attack on American youth and children, particularly those who are disadvantaged. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Fascism is all too often relegated to the history books.

The word conjures up a period in which civilized societies treated democracy with contempt, engaged in acts of systemic violence, practised extermination and elimination, supported an “apocalyptic populism,” suppressed dissent, promoted a hyper-nationalism, displayed contempt for women, embraced militarism as an absolute ideal and in...



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Biotech

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Delivering genetic material is a key challenge in gene therapy. Invitation image created by Kstudio, CC BY

If you’ve ever bought a new iPhone, you’ve experienced good packaging.

The way the lid slowly separates from the box. The pull...



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Chart School

Rallies Slow As Semiconductor Selling Eases

Courtesy of Declan

Markets experienced early gains but gave them back by the close of business. Given the mini-rally of the past five days, some of the indices are looking vulnerable to a new round of selling.

The S&P finished with a narrow inverted hammer on low volume but at new highs. A move back to the newly accelerated channel is looking favored.
 


The Nasdaq also finished with a narrow doji but wasn't able to make new highs.  It's already close to one channel but looks more likely to reach down to th...



more from Chart School

Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For December 13, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Lightinthebox Holding Co Ltd-ADR (NYSE: LITB) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.01 per share on revenue of $78.49 million.
Companies Reporting After The Bell
  • ABM Industries, Inc. (NYSE: ABM) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.49 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion.
  • ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Not A Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Meet The Crypto Company - up almost 20,000% since inception in September...

To a market cap of over $12.6 billion...

Grant's Interest Rate Observer drew the world's attention to this 'company' yesterday.....



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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