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Author Archive for Chart School

Bears Scratch The Market

Courtesy of Declan.

It was looking good for bears, until the late recovery put a bit of a gloss on proceedings. The first half hour of trading (and premarket) will be important tomorrow.

The S&P is trading close to breakout support, and the 20-day MA is fast approaching to lend a hand. If bears were able to break both these levels it would open up for some downside. Although, fresh support would quickly emerge at converged 2064 support and the 50-day MA, but beyond that there is room down to 2000/1990.


Perhaps more disappointing was the loss in the Semiconductor Index. It effectively gave back nearly all of yesterday’s gains, bar the gap.  There is room down to 702 support. A spike low would be the ideal bullish riposte; a strong end-of-day finish Wednesday would help shore up confidence after today.

The Nasdaq experienced selling distribution, but did enough by the close to give bulls something to work with tomorrow.

The Russell 2000 also clawed back its loses and is well protected against weakness, with the 20-day MA creeping above 1220 support.

The big picture hasn’t changed much. Rallies are still in play and indices close to support, like the S&P, successfully defended such support.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

rtt-browsing-latestPlease review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Saturday, 31 January 2015, 07:04:10 PM

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Comment: Recessions are illegal! Banned by the central bankers. Wait whats this???

Date Found: Sunday, 01 February 2015, 12:47:52 PM

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Comment: Feliz Zulauf talks deflation and non producing debt, a great concern. kingworldnews.com…

Date Found: Sunday, 01 February 2015, 12:49:32 PM

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Comment: Andrew Maquire talks about metals trading and news of a new exchange that will make the LBMA and COMEX redundant! kingworldnews.com…

Date Found: Sunday, 01 February 2015, 01:20:09 PM

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Comment: SLV all that volume since Sept 2014, is not selling, because if it was SLV would be at $10, looks like controlled accumulation. Demand in the house!

Date Found: Sunday, 01 February 2015, 01:22:09 PM

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Comment: Bonds are killing stocks, this is NOT healthy, all this while SP500 near all time highs. ONE IS WRONG!

Date Found: Sunday, 01 February 2015, 01:26:10 PM

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Comment: If this cycle does NOT work, and the SP500 does not go higher, then something has changed, and not for the good. Forces that break cycles are powerful.

Date Found: Sunday, 01 February 2015, 01:39:50 PM

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Comment: Q:Why is GOLD not falling while the USD is strong? A: Gold is a currency, NOT a commodity. Has been for several thousand years!

Date Found: Monday, 02 February 2015, 01:08:53 PM

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Comment: Rig count more to go!

Date Found: Monday, 02 February 2015, 05:37:11 PM

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The Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Are We Now?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: At the request of The Advisory Group in San Francisco, here’s updated comparison of four major cyclical bear markets. The numbers are through the March 2nd close.


This chart series features an overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the market peak in 1929. They are:

  1. The Crash of 1929, which eventually ushered in the Great Depression,
  2. The Oil Embargo of 1973, which was followed by a vicious bout of stagflation,
  3. The 2000 Tech Bubble bust and,
  4. The Financial Crisis following the record high in October 2007.

The series includes four versions of the overlay: nominal, real (inflation-adjusted), total-return with dividends reinvested and real total-return.

The first chart shows the price, excluding dividends for these four historic declines and their aftermath. As of yesterday’s close are now 1860 market days from the 2007 peak in the S&P 500.

Click to View
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Inflation-Adjusted Performance

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Nominal Total Returns

Now let’s look at a total return comparison with dividends reinvested. The recovery following the 1973 Oil Embargo Bear is the top performer, up 60.1% from the 2007 peak, with the current post-Financial Crisis recovery a relatively close second.

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Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Total Returns

When we adjust total returns for inflation, the picture significantly changes. The spread between three of the four markets narrows, and the current real total return has pulled far ahead of the others. Second place, by this metric, goes to the recovery following Crash of 1929.

Click to View
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Here is a table showing the relative performance of these four cycles at the equivalent point in time.

For a better sense of how these cycles figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets, adjusted for inflation, in the S&P Composite since 1871.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the…
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The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: I’ll be taking another look at this market valuation indicator shortly after the Federal Reserve releases the Q4 Financial Accounts at noon EST on March 12th.


The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It’s a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Fortunately, the government does the work of accumulating the data for the calculation. The numbers are supplied in the Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States of the United States, which is released quarterly.

The first chart shows Q Ratio from 1900 to the present. I’ve calculated the ratio since the latest Fed data (through 2014 Q3) based on a subjective process of extrapolating the Z.1 data itself and factoring in the monthly closes for the Vanguard Total Market ETF (VTI).

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Interpreting the Ratio

The data since 1945 is a simple calculation using data from the Federal Reserve Z.1 Statistical Release, section B.102, Balance Sheet and Reconciliation Tables for Nonfinancial Corporate Business. Specifically it is the ratio of Line 39 (Market Value) divided by Line 36 (Replacement Cost). It might seem logical that fair value would be a 1:1 ratio. But that has not historically been the case. The explanation, according to Smithers & Co. (more about them later) is that “the replacement cost of company assets is overstated. This is because the long-term real return on corporate equity, according to the published data, is only 4.8%, while the long-term real return to investors is around 6.0%. Over the long-term and in equilibrium, the two must be the same.”

The average (arithmetic mean) Q Ratio is about 0.68. In the chart below I’ve adjusted the Q Ratio to an arithmetic mean of 1 (i.e., divided the ratio data points by the average). This gives a more intuitive sense to the numbers. For example, the all-time Q Ratio high at the peak of the Tech Bubble was 1.64 — which suggests that the market price was 140% above the historic average of replacement cost. The all-time…
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Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: I’ve update the charts in this commentary to include the latest monthly data.


My monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — current valuation levels would be a serious concern.

But these are different times. The economic cycle shaped by the Financial Crisis that began emerging in 2007 shortly after the Bear Stearns hedge funds collapsed. The Fed began its historic crusade in cutting the overnight rate from an average of 5.25% prior to the hedge fund collapse to ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) as of December 16, 2008. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008 was the most dramatic precipitator of the Fed’s unprecedented policies.

In the wake of the Financial Crisis, inflation has been low and the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering about 120 basis points above its historic closing low of 1.43% set on July 25, 2012 (the monthly average that month also an all-time low of 1.53%). So, with this refresher on the Financial Crisis in mind, let’s take another look at the popular P/E10 valuation metric.

Here is a scatter graph with the market valuation on the vertical axis (log scale) and interest rates on the horizontal axis. I’ve included some key highlights: 1) the extreme overvaluation of the Tech Bubble, 2) the valuations since the start of last recession, 3) the average P/E10 and 4) where we are today.

Click to View
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The inflation “sweet spot”, the range that has supported the highest valuations, is approximately between 1.4% and 3%. For example I’ve highlighted the extreme valuations associated with the Tech Bubble arbitrarily as a P/E10 of 30 and higher. The chronology of the orange “bubble” on the chart is a clockwise loop of 56 months starting at the 6 o’clock position. The P/E10 was 31.3 and the annual inflation rate for that month, June 1997, was 2.30%. The average inflation rate for the loop was 2.41%. The P/E10 peak of 44.2 in December 1999 was accompanied by a 2.68% annual inflation rate. Two months later…
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The Market Moves Higher into Overvaluation Territory

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of the month.

  • The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more)
  • The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more)
  • The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more)
  • The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline (more)

To facilitate comparisons, I’ve adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression. Thus the percentages on the vertical axis show the over/undervaluation as a percent above mean value, which I’m using as a surrogate for fair value. Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 64% to 98%, depending on the indicator, up from the previous month’s 60% to 94%.

I’ve plotted the S&P regression data as an area chart type rather than a line to make the comparisons a bit easier to read. It also reinforces the difference between the line charts — which are simple ratios — and the regression series, which measures the distance from an exponential regression on a log chart.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

The chart below differs from the one above in that the two valuation ratios (P/E and Q) are adjusted to their geometric mean rather than their arithmetic mean (which is what most people think of as the “average”). The geometric mean increases our attention to outliers. In my view, the first chart does a satisfactory job of illustrating these four approaches to market valuation, but I’ve…
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March 4th Webinar: The Myth of the Most Efficient Market

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Upcoming Complimentary APViewpoint Events

Presenter: Jim O’Shaughnessy

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 – 4:15 p.m. EST

Assets in index funds and ETFs are reaching all-time highs, driven in part by the belief that stock selection strategies have become a fool’s errand for investors who are trying to outperform the market. In this webinar, Jim O’Shaughnessy will share empirical research conducted over 80 years to debunk this myth and identify time-tested principles that allow investors to consistently beat the market.

During the webinar he will:

  • highlight the benefits and flaws of indexing, with a particular focus on unraveling the myth of market efficiency among U.S. large caps;
  • offer his perspective on the evolution of factor-based investing as an alternative to indexing; and
  • share research that combines the best aspects of both active and passive investing into a complete investment strategy.

Jim will discuss research on factors-based stock selection where quality, valuation and yield criteria generate returns that dramatically and consistently outperform the U.S. large-cap market on an absolute-and risk-adjusted return basis. There will be plenty of time for Q&A, and after the session Jim will be available to discuss its content on APViewpoint.

Pfau

Jim O’Shaughnessy
O’Shaughnessy Asset Management

Jim O’Shaughnessy is the Chairman and CEO of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management (OSAM) and also serves at the firm’s Chief Investment Officer. Prior to founding OSAM, Jim was the Director of Systematic Equity at Bear Stearns Asset Management and a Senior Managing Director of the firm. Long recognized as one of America’s leading financial experts and a pioneer in quantitative equityanalysis, he has been called a “world beater” and a “statistical guru” by Barron’s and in 2009 Forbes.com included Jim in a series on “Legendary Investors.” He is the author of four highly acclaimed books on investing.

You must be a member of APViewpoint to register for this event.
APViewpoint Events are webinars that offer advisors the opportunity to gain insights on the markets, financial planning and practice management from some of the industry’s most respected thought leaders.




Solid gains, especially for the Semiconductor Index

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another good day for indices, but it was left to the Semiconductor Index to drive the biggest gain of the day. This is good news for Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 bulls. The measured move target for this leg is 800.


The Nasdaq is running along the upper 10% envelope relative to the 200-day MA. Monday’s gain swallowed the loss from Friday in fairly short order.

The Dow kicked off its rally off breakout support. Volume was a little disappointing given the advance, but price action is more important.

Small Caps pulled away from its breakout and support of 1,220. The Russell 2000 remains a key index for 2015, and it has done well so far.

The S&P also gained to finish at a new high, although the gain was more modest relative to other indices.

Indices are again well placed for further gains. Friday’s losses were quickly erased, sucking what little confidence shorts may have gleaned from last week.

You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.





March 4th Webinar: The Myth of the Most Efficient Market

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Upcoming Complimentary APViewpoint Events

Presenter: Jim O’Shaughnessy

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 – 4:15 p.m. EST

Assets in index funds and ETFs are reaching all-time highs, driven in part by the belief that stock selection strategies have become a fool’s errand for investors who are trying to outperform the market. In this webinar, Jim O’Shaughnessy will share empirical research conducted over 80 years to debunk this myth and identify time-tested principles that allow investors to consistently beat the market.

During the webinar he will:

  • highlight the benefits and flaws of indexing, with a particular focus on unraveling the myth of market efficiency among U.S. large caps;
  • offer his perspective on the evolution of factor-based investing as an alternative to indexing; and
  • share research that combines the best aspects of both active and passive investing into a complete investment strategy.

Jim will discuss research on factors-based stock selection where quality, valuation and yield criteria generate returns that dramatically and consistently outperform the U.S. large-cap market on an absolute-and risk-adjusted return basis. There will be plenty of time for Q&A, and after the session Jim will be available to discuss its content on APViewpoint.

Pfau

Jim O’Shaughnessy
O’Shaughnessy Asset Management

Jim O’Shaughnessy is the Chairman and CEO of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management (OSAM) and also serves at the firm’s Chief Investment Officer. Prior to founding OSAM, Jim was the Director of Systematic Equity at Bear Stearns Asset Management and a Senior Managing Director of the firm. Long recognized as one of America’s leading financial experts and a pioneer in quantitative equityanalysis, he has been called a “world beater” and a “statistical guru” by Barron’s and in 2009 Forbes.com included Jim in a series on “Legendary Investors.” He is the author of four highly acclaimed books on investing.

You must be a member of APViewpoint to register for this event.
APViewpoint Events are webinars that offer advisors the opportunity to gain insights on the markets, financial planning and practice management from some of the industry’s most respected thought leaders.




The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a update in response to a standing request from a couple of sources that I also share with regular visitors to my Advisor Perspectives pages.

The request is for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. In response, I maintain two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which is usually just refer to as the CPI). The charts below have been updated through the December 31, 2014 close.

Click to View
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Click to View
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The charts require little explanation. So far the 21st Century has not been especially kind to equity investors. Yes, markets usually do bounce back, but often in time frames that defy optimistic expectations.

The charts above are based on price only. But what about dividends? Would the inclusion of dividends make a significant difference? I’ll close this post with a reprint of my latest chart update of the S&P 500 total return on a $1,000 investment at the 2000 high.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Total return, including reinvested dividends, certainly looks better, but the real (inflation-adjusted) purchasing power of that $1,000 is currently only 342 dollars above break-even. That equates to a 1.98% annualized real return.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The Water Wars Are Coming

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by James E Miller via Mises Canada blog,

Does a warning mean anything if nobody listens?

With the precarious case of Lake Mead, doomsayers never seem to break the surface. For years, reports of the lake’s declining levels have popped up in the news. Yet residents of the surrounding area still refuse to listen. The latest report from the Interior Department is very troublesome: there is a 20% chance of water shortages for Nevada and Arizona in 2016 if the lake maintains current levels....



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Chart School

Bears Scratch The Market

Courtesy of Declan.

It was looking good for bears, until the late recovery put a bit of a gloss on proceedings. The first half hour of trading (and premarket) will be important tomorrow.

The S&P is trading close to breakout support, and the 20-day MA is fast approaching to lend a hand. If bears were able to break both these levels it would open up for some downside. Although, fresh support would quickly emerge at converged 2064 support and the 50-day MA, but beyond that there is room down to 2000/1990.


Perhaps more disappointing was the loss in the Semiconductor Index. It effectively gave back nearly all of yesterday's gains, bar the gap.  There is room down to 702 s...

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Phil's Favorites

Great Big Fat Greek Expectations

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.


DPC Country store, Venezuela 1905

From what I read in the press every day, as well as from private communication, a pretty wide divide seems to appear between what many people think the Syriza government in Athens should do, and what they actually can do at this point in time. It should be useful to clarify what this divide consists of, and how it can be breached, if that is at all possible.

In particular, many are of the opinion that Greece cannot escape its suffocating debt issues without leaving the eurozone and going its own way, reintroducing the drachma and defaulting on much of its €240 billion debt. Those who think so may well be right. But right now that is mostly irrelevant. Because Alexi...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks break out again but may be running on fumes

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite low trading volume, a strong dollar, mixed economic and earnings reports, paralyzing weather conditions throughout much of the U.S., and ominous global news events, stocks continue to march ever higher. The world remains on edge about potential Black Swan events from the likes of Russia, Greece, or ISIS (or lone wolf extremists). Moreover, the economic recovery of the U.S. may be feeling the pull of the proverbial ball-and-chain from the rest of the world’s economies. Nevertheless, awash in investable cash, global investors see few choices better than U.S. equities.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 2nd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: Coal

Kimble Charts: Coal

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble's chart for KOL shows a recently beaten down ETF struggling to pull itself up from the ashes. As the chart shows, KOL has recently drifted down to levels not seen since the financial crisis of 2008-9.

Bouncing or recovering with energy in general, coal prices appear to have stabilized in the short-term. Reflecting coal prices, KOL has traded between $13.45 and $19.75 during the past year. Bouncing from lows, KOL traded around 2% higher yesterday from $14.26 to $14.48 on high volume. It traded another 3.6% higher in after hours to $15, possibly related to ...



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Digital Currencies

MyCoin Exchange Disappears with Up To $387 Million, Reports Claim

Follow up from yesterday's Just the latest Bitcoin scam.

Hong Kong's MyCoin Disappears With Up To $387 Million, Reports Claim By  

Reports are emerging from Hong Kong that local bitcoin exchange MyCoin has shut its doors, taking with it possibly as much as HK$3bn ($386.9m) in investor funds.

If true, the supposed losses are a staggering amount, although this estimate is based on the company's own earlier claims that it served 3,000 clients who had invested HK$1m ($129,000) each.

...



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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



more from Caitlin

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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