Author Archive for Chart School

Russell 2000 Turns Net Bearish Technically

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another day of modest change with little real turn in bullish/bearish outlook.  The Russell 2000 was the only one index to mark a technical change with a net bearish switch in technicals (MACD, Slow Stochastics, On-Balance-Volume).






There wasn’t much to add for other indices. The S&P finished with a narrow doji on its 20-day MA. Technicals were little changed.





The Nasdaq also did little. It still has a MACD trigger ‘sell’ to work off, but other technicals remain positive, including excellent relative strength against the S&P.





For tomorrow, the same outlook going into today is still relevant. Bulls should watch for breakouts in the S&P and Nasdaq. Shorts need watch the Russell 2000.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Jan 22, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

This rally is getting long in the tooth so simply from a duration standpoint some caution is merited. There are other reasons which we will outline later. That said this particular week was a quiet group of sessions with mild gains and losses mixed in; the market was closed on Monday. Earnings were the focus of the week as was the Trump speech Friday where investors may begin to start pivoting off hope for everything to be perfect, and start looking at the reality of Washington D.C. doing Washington D.C. things. Even with 1 party controlling both major branches.

Overseas, the European Central Bank, as expected, left interest rates unchanged Thursday. The decision was expected after the ECB last month decided to extend its bond buying program through the end of 2017. ECB head Mario Draghi said there was “no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation” adding the central bank was ready to expand its quantitative-easing program if needed. His comments pushed the euro and the yen lower against the dollar.

On the economic front, the consumer-price index, a widely watched gauge of inflationary pressure, showed price growth accelerated in 2016 at the fastest pace since 2011. In December, the index rose 0.3%. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices rose 0.2%.

This was another week “Dow 20K” was not attained; and in fact we might have just seen a bearish double top.

djia

Here is a 5 day “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 via Doug Short.

SPX-five-day

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The parent of Chuck E. Cheese has begun preparations for an initial public offering (IPO) that could value the U.S. restaurant chain at more than $1 billion, including debt, people familiar with the situation said on Tuesday. // // // The IPO would be a bet that Irving, Texas-based Chuck E. Cheese’s arcade games and kid-focused activities will differentiate it in the minds of investors from other more commoditized restaurant chains that have failed to whet


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No Major Change

Courtesy of Declan.

Trump’s inauguration looks to have kept traders distracted as markets experienced a relatively quiet Friday, despite some higher volume trading.




The S&P experienced higher volume accumulation but was unable to get past 2,275. Monday is another day, but keep an eye on the MACD; a gain with a new ‘buy’ trigger well above the bullish zero line will attract technical traders on the long side. This in turn will encourage short covering.




The Nasdaq turned a MACD trigger ‘sell’, but given its relative position well above the bullish zero line it would count as a weak ‘sell’ trigger.  Other Technicals remain firmly positive, and the relative performance of the index against the S&P suggests it’s well positioned to go higher.





Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 is still struggling. It did make up some lost ground, but not enough to recover lost support and not enough to reverse technical weakness. Shorts will again be looking to attack unless there is a push above 1,376.





Longer term charts had moved back in favour of bulls (in what was a slow-mo reversal). It would take a few months of consistent downside to return this to a bearish stance; in light of this, look for a move to broadening wedge resistance – i.e. further bullish action.





Dow Theorists can continue to take comfort in the relative relationship between Transports and Dow Jones as the breakout from the two-and-a-half year decline resumes its upward advance (Transports leading).





For tomorrow, watch for a breakout in the S&P and a continuation (with new highs) of a breakout in the Nasdaq.  A weak start could see an acceleration down in the Russell 2000.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Can the latest rally in the Dow Jones be trusted?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

can-the-latest-rally-in-the-dow-jones-be-trustedAfter all ‘bull traps’, are called ‘traps’ for a reason! Just because price is higher does not mean it will be there for very long!



More from RTT Tv












NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named Paint.net



Investing Quote…



..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”…



Richard D. Wyckoff





..“Because of the extreme challenge, one must commit full attention to it.” Market speculation is “no different than trying to be a successful doctor or lawyer … you simply must devote yourself full-time to the study of your craft”…



Bernard Baruch





..“If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong.”..



Bernard Baruch





..”The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing”..



Philip Fisher





..”Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”..



George Soros











Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday’s small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the ‘bull trap’ in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,






The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it’s suggesting the S&P will follow suit. Technicals are holding up well.





The Nasdaq had small losses, but volume did climb to register as distribution. However, the breakout is holding, and it has room to run to support.





For tomorrow, look for an acceleration lower in the Russell 2000. The S&P may attract late-player Shorts looking to see if this index follows the lead in the Russell 2000.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Minor Day for Markets

Courtesy of Declan.

No need to say much for today as very little happened in the market. The Russell 2000 attempted to undo yesterday’s breakdown, but hadn’t recovered enough by end of day to negate it.






The only index to make any kind of move today was the Semiconductor Index. It recovered all of yesterday’s losses as it looks to return a challenge of 944 highs.  This index has been the star performer for 2016, but can it maintain this form into 2017?





For tomorrow, look for the same breakout opportunities in Large Caps as were on offer yesterday. Shorts may use today’s small gain back to former support – turned resistance – in the Russell 2000 as a chance to enter a position. Stops go on a move above 1,377.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Russell 2000 Breaks Lower

Courtesy of Declan.

In the end, it was Theresa May and not Trump which saw the Russell 2000 cut through support and confirm the earlier ‘bull trap’.  This change coincided with a ‘sell’ trigger in +DI/-DI. Only stochastics are hanging on to its ‘buy’ signal.






The S&P experienced heavier volume distribution, but there wasn’t a big percentage loss, nor was there a break from the consolidation range





It was a similar story for the Nasdaq. It took a greater relative loss than the S&P, but it didn’t challenge support from the breakout.  However, look for such a test tomorrow.  All supporting technicals remain in the green.





With the bank holiday weekend over, traders can again look to push the Trump/May agenda. Shorts can remain tied to the Russell 2000 – shorting rallies as they emerge.  Longs should to Large Cap indices and the short covering which is likely to follow once trading range resistance is breached.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

djia

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged a bit (mostly on the NASDAQ) i.e. tech.  That began late the prior week and continues this past week.  Big cap “technology/momentum” stocks saw a return of traders as these names had been ignored in the first 2 months of the rally.  The strong start in the NASDAQ may bode well for the year:

The Nasdaq Composite  has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.   When the Nasdaq Composite ends a year’s first five sessions with a gain, it has finished the full year in the black 73% of the time, or in 22 out of 30 years.

amzn fb tsla

Fun fact:  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64 trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.

The only major economic report was Friday’s December retail sales:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December, less than had been expected, while holiday sales were up a better-than-expected 4%.   Excluding the large auto sector that accounts for 20% of overall retail business, sales rose a disappointing 0.2% in the final month of the year, the


continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

djia

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged a bit (mostly on the NASDAQ) i.e. tech.  That began late the prior week and continues this past week.  Big cap “technology/momentum” stocks saw a return of traders as these names had been ignored in the first 2 months of the rally.  The strong start in the NASDAQ may bode well for the year:

The Nasdaq Composite  has gained 2.76% in its first five trading days of 2017, marking the gauge’s best start to a year since 2006, when it jumped 5.14%.   When the Nasdaq Composite ends a year’s first five sessions with a gain, it has finished the full year in the black 73% of the time, or in 22 out of 30 years.

amzn fb tsla

Fun fact:  The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% was back on October 11th when the index dropped 1.24%.  The current 64 trading day streak without a 1%+ decline is the second longest of the current bull market which began in March 2009.

The only major economic report was Friday’s December retail sales:

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in December, less than had been expected, while holiday sales were up a better-than-expected 4%.   Excluding the large auto sector that accounts for 20% of overall retail business, sales rose a disappointing 0.2% in the final month of the year, the


continue reading





Russell 2000 Comes Back From The Brink

Courtesy of Declan.

There was no wiggle room for the index heading into Friday as it managed to claw back the ‘breakdown’. It went one step better and posted one of the better performances on Friday.  While the index has come back from support, it hasn’t yet challenged the consolidation ‘bull trap’ – but look for this on Monday.






What will help the Russell 2000 is the new closing high for the Nasdaq. The latter index wasn’t able to post more than a 0.5% gain, but it did keep the rally from November lows intact and this is good news for bulls looking for similar action from Large and Small Caps.





The S&P had a quiet day as it did all it could to bump against resistance without breaking it. The MACD is still on a ‘sell’ trigger despite the relatively neutral price action. Given what happened in the Nasdaq on Friday the likelihood the S&P will follow with new highs on Monday is strong.





For Monday, bulls should watch the S&P for its potential to follow the Nasdaq higher. If there is a weak open, then the Russell 2000 becomes the watch index for a return to (and below) consolidation support.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ blog.





I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro, register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Soaring Lease Returns Set To Wreak Havoc Used Car Pricing and Auto Industry Profits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

For months we've warned that declining used car prices could spell disaster for subprime auto securitizations (see "Slumping Used Car Prices Spell Disaster For Subprime Auto Securitizations").  While it's always difficult to predict the exact timing of when bubbles will burst, a combination of record-high lease returns in 2017 and 2018, combined with rising interest rates could imply that the auto bubble is on the precipice.

As ...



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ValueWalk

Can The Caucasus Grab Donald Trump's Attention?

By EurasiaNet. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pink protest hats were not the only piece of clothing to mark US President Donald Trump’s January 20 inauguration. He did, in fact, receive a chokha, a traditional wool coat from the Caucasus for men, usually worn with a dagger.

Little suggests that Trump will soon cut a dash in the bandoliered, cinched-at-the-waist costume from a Tbilisi apparel shop. But its offering symbolizes the regional hope that he will not overlook the Caucasus.

Even before Trump’s calls for “America First,” local analysts believe that American foreign policy had bec...



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Chart School

Russell 2000 Turns Net Bearish Technically

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another day of modest change with little real turn in bullish/bearish outlook.  The Russell 2000 was the only one index to mark a technical change with a net bearish switch in technicals (MACD, Slow Stochastics, On-Balance-Volume).


There wasn't much to add for other indices. The S&P finished with a narrow doji on its 20-day MA. Technicals were little changed.

...

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Phil's Favorites

He Is Risen... But For How Long?

 

He Is Risen… But For How Long?

Courtesy of James Howard Kunstler

If the first forty-eight hours are any measure of the alleged Trumptopia-to-come, the leading man in this national melodrama appears to be meshuga. A more charitable view might be that his behavior does not comport with the job description: president. If he keeps it up, I stick to my call that we will see him removed by extraordinary action within a few months. It might be a lawful continuity-of-government procedure according to the 25th Amendment — various high officials declaring him “incapacited” — or it might be a straight-up old school coup d’état (“You’re fired&rdqu...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

18 people have signed up, but it's not too late to join in!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We n...



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Digital Currencies

As China Slaps Fees On Bitcoin Trades, Japan Monthly Volumes Soar by 8,900%

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

There is one reason why bitcoin quickly became the darling of HFT and various high speed algo traders operating out of China and the rest of the world: domestic transactions were "frictionless", as there were no fees on buys or sells. Until last night, that is, because as China's three largest bitcoin exchanges, BTCC, Huobi and OkCoin, all said in separate statements on their websites late on Sunday, starting Tuesday they will charge traders a flat fee of 0.2% per transaction. This is only the latest fallout from the recent crackdown on Chinese bitcoin exchanges whose activities have drawn increased scrutiny from the centra...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

OPEC and Friends Agree on Way to Monitor Oil Cut to End Glut (Bloomberg)

OPEC and other oil producers agreed on a way to monitor their compliance with last month’s historic supply deal, putting global markets on track to re-balance after more than two years of oversupply.

Wall Street stocks set to slip as Trump keeps investors on the back foot (Market Watch)

U.S. stock futures tilted south on Monday as global markets grappled with uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Dona...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 23rd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Post Christmas- Gold Miners & Metals the place to be!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Christmas is now nearly one month ago, how time flies. Ole Santa has been taking a rest and so far over the past month, the S&P 500 has done the same. Not so much for a few other high flying assets!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since the first day of trading after the Christmas break, the broad market has been pretty quiet, up .23%. Bonds (TLT) and the Euro (FXE) have made a little bit more than the broad markets.

The Metals Sector has done pretty well since Christmas, as Gold ...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings: Last Call for Yahoo? Johnson & Johnson, Alibaba Also Release This Week

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Earnings season kicks into high gear this week with a number of big names reporting. Among the Monday releases, YYahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) will report what may be its last quarterly earnings numbers, as its pending acquisition by Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), announced in July 2016, moves toward completion.  

On Tuesday before the opening bell, pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Chinese e-commerce heavyweight ...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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