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S&P 500 Snapshot: October Opens with a Selloff

Courtesy of Doug Short.

When it comes to monthly market volatility in the S&P 500, October tops the list, ranging from its 16.3% surge in 1974 to its 21.8% plunge in 1987. How will October 2014 stack up on the volatility scale? Time will tell. But the month certainly opened on a weak note, dropping 1.32%, the sixth largest one-day decline so far this year. The index closed a bit off its -1.52% intraday low at the start of the final hour of trading. The intraday range was at the 96th percentile of the 189 market days of 2014.

The selloff in equities was matched by a rally in Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.42%, down 10 bps from yesterday’s close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions

As we see on the daily chart, today’s selling came on increased volume.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

The chart below incorporates a percent-off-high calculation to illustrate the drawdowns greater than 5% since the trough in 2009.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

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For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Click to View
Click for a larger image





Concerted Bear Move

Courtesy of Declan.

Bears haven’t had too much to cheer as every sell off has been quickly reversed, but today they were given the run of the house. The Russell 2000 was the weakest index heading into today, and it was slapped with another big hit today. However, bulls probably have the best chance for a bounce trade in this index. The index saw a clear cut below the 200-day MA and 1,090, but a push above these levels tomorrow would set up a ‘bear trap’.


The S&P was pushed into a no-mans land: it’s no longer near support of 50-day MA or 1,987, and it has room to fall before it reaches August swing low and/or 200-day MA. Rallies from today will be sold into by shorts, with the 20-day MA likely to be the attack point. This will give weak rally opportunities for traders, although the Russell 2000 is probably the more attractive index in this regard.

The Nasdaq was the last index to break support, but it perhaps has the best support opportunities to lean on. The swing low at 4,325 will soon converge with the 200-day MA, and if the Nasdaq makes it back to this point it will offer a cover/long opportunity.

The Dow also took a big hit with a break of the 50-day MA, ending the consolidation trade between 50-day MA and 17,121. It’s downward target is the 200-day MA, which is above the August swing low.

A short opportunity may be available in the Nasdaq 100. Here the August swing low was part of the April-September channel, which was breached on today’s action. The next target down, after the August swing low, is the 200-day MA.

The best long standing short move has come from the Semiconductor index. Those who caught the ‘bull trap’ have been rewarded nicely. However, it will soon be dealing with converged support marked on the chart.…
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Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without crystal ball, we simply don’t know.

One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends. Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to aeternus “eternal” — the type of bull market we fantasize about).

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The key word on the chart above is secular. The implicit rule I’m following is that blue shows secular trends that lead to new all-time real highs. Periods in between are secular bear markets, regardless of their cyclical rallies. For example, the rally from 1932 to 1937, despite its strength, remains a cycle in a secular bear market. At its peak in 1937, the index was 29% below the real all-time high of 1929. For a scholarly study of secular bear markets, which highlights the same key turning points, see Russell Napier’s Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms.

If we study the data underlying the chart, we can extract a number of interesting facts about these secular patterns (note that for the table below I am including the 1932-1937 rally):

The annualized rate of growth from 1871 through the end of August (the latest month for which we have an inflation rate) is 2.21%. If that seems incredibly low, remember that the chart shows “real” price growth, excluding inflation and dividends. If we factor in the dividend yield, we get an annualized return of 6.82%. Yes, dividends make a difference. Unfortunately that has been less true during the past three decades than in earlier times. When we let Excel draw a regression through the data, the slope is an even lower annualized rate of 1.75% (see the regression section below for further explanation).

If we added in the value lost from inflation, the “nominal” annualized return comes to 9.04% — the number commonly reported in the popular press. But for a more accurate view of the purchasing power of the market dollars, we’ll stick to “real” numbers.

Since that…
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The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a update in response to a standing request from a couple of sources that I also share with regular visitors to my Advisor Perspectives pages.

The request is for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. In response, I maintain two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which is usually just refer to as the CPI). The charts below have been updated through the September 30th close.

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The charts require little explanation. So far the 21st Century has not been especially kind to equity investors. Yes, markets usually do bounce back, but often in time frames that defy optimistic expectations.

The charts above are based on price only. But what about dividends? Would the inclusion of dividends make a significant difference? I’ll close this post with a reprint of my latest chart update of the S&P 500 total return on a $1,000 investment at the 2000 high.

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Total return, including reinvested dividends, certainly looks better, but the real (inflation-adjusted) purchasing power of that $1,000 is currently, over 14 years later, only 222 dollars above break-even. That equates to a 1.39% annualized real return.





ISM Manufacturing Index: Disappointing September Growth

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report. The latest headline PMI at 56.6 came in lower the August 59.0 percent and below the Investing.com forecast of 58.5. The September level was the lowest since June.

Here is the key analysis from the report:

(ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The September PMI® registered 56.6 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from August’s reading of 59 percent, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing. The New Orders Index registered 60 percent, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the 66.7 percent reading in August, indicating growth in new orders for the 16th consecutive month. The Production Index registered 64.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the August reading of 64.5 percent. The Employment Index grew for the 15th consecutive month, registering 54.6 percent, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points below the August reading of 58.1 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the August reading of 52 percent, indicating growth in inventories for the second consecutive month. Comments from the panel reflect a generally positive business outlook, while noting some labor shortages and continuing concern over geopolitical unrest.”

Here is the table of PMI components.

I’m reluctant to put too much focus on this index for various reasons, but they are essentially captured in Briefing.com’s Big Picture comment on this economic indicator.

This [the ISM Manufacturing Index] is a highly overrated index. It is merely a survey of purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, which means that it reflects the number of people saying conditions are better compared to the number saying conditions are worse. It does not weight for size of the firm, or for the degree of better/worse. It can therefore underestimate conditions if there is a great deal of strength in a few firms. The data have thus not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.

The chart below shows the Manufacturing Composite series, which stretches back to 1948. I’ve highlighted the eleven recessions during this time…
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Forget Active vs. Passive: It’s All About Factors

Courtesy of Doug Short.

We just love a good debate, and there seems to be quite a heated debate at the moment about the relative utility of passive versus active investing. Perhaps this debate is as timeless as investment management itself, but a flurry of recent studies may have finally armed passive advocates with enough ammunition to settle the argument once and for all.

The Passive Posse

First, some background on ‘passive’ investing. The progenitor of contemporary passive investing is almost certainly Bill Sharpe, who demonstrated in 1964 that, when markets are at equilibrium, the most efficient portfolio is the Global Market Portfolio. This portfolio holds all global financial assets in proportion to their market capitalization (see our article A Global Passive Benchmark with ETFs and Factor Tilts for more background on the Global Market Portfolio and implementation options). Fundamentally, Sharpe’s conclusion is based on that fact that the market cap weighted portfolio represents the current aggregate of all investor bets in the market. This is why ‘passive’ investing is often used interchangeably with market cap weighted indexing.

Market capitalization based indexing has several advantages. First, it is the only portfolio that is consistent with a belief in efficient markets. It is also definitionally the lowest turnover portfolio, as position weights in the portfolio automatically rise and fall in response to changes in relative market capitalization as constituent assets go up and down in price. (Note: This is not precisely true, as stock retirement and issuance will alter ratios through time, but this is small in proportion to total value). In addition, it is the only truly ‘neutral’ portfolio, as it is possible for every investor in the market to own this portfolio in precisely the same weight.

Despite these benefits, and the theoretical case for a passive approach, most investors do not choose to go this route. Granted, most investors are constrained by externalities such as income taxes, estate taxes, regulations, access to alternative products, higher costs, and currency preferences which prohibit passive investment in the Global Market Portfolio. These realities are augmented by behavioural biases such as overconfidence, lottery preferences, and the availability heuristic, which make it difficult for many investors to stick to a passive approach.

Instead, clients and advisors have traditionally adopted an enormous home market bias by setting a policy portfolio…
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Three Reasons Why stocks Could Mint a Shiny Fourth Quarter for Investors

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


Investors often enjoy a strong wind at their back in the fourth quarter, based on seasonal patterns and stock market history. Will 2014 be different?

When looking at the S&P 500, more than half of the index’s gains over the past 25 years took place during the final three months of the year.

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Studying seasonal cycles can help investors gain perspective and align themselves with likelier outcomes. Of course, nothing is certain when it comes to investing, and it’s important to remember that these are average returns. In other words, every year is different.

For example, the fourth quarter of 2008 during the financial crisis was the worst quarter during the 15-year period.

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Now, noted market technician Ryan Detrick tells The Street that some recent weak economic numbers may lower earnings estimates. “Still, historically the fourth quarter is the strongest quarter, so don’t ignore that going forward,” he said.

Here are three reasons why history suggests investors can expect good things the next three months even if the economy faces questions:

1) ‘Sell in May’ goes the other way

For whatever reason, the stock market tends to do well in the 4th quarter. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted an average gain of more than 4% in the fourth quarter, and has finished higher 78% of the time. In fact, we are entering the half of the year that tends to be strong.

“It’s the beginning of the November through April period. The ‘sell in May’ goes the other way,” said Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in a CNBC article. “We are entering the best six months period, where the average gains since World War II has been 15.3% and the frequency of advance is 94%.”

2) The Presidential Cycle

Ok, so the fourth quarter is often kind to investors. What if we drill down further to factor in the so-called Presidential Cycle.”

Wouldn’t you know it, breaking down all 16 quarters during a four year…
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Anticipating the Employment Report for September

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The economic mover and shaker this week is the Friday employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, probably the most publicized in the near term being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).

Today we have the September estimate of 213K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, which we can consider along with the estimate of 206K total new jobs from TrimTabs.

The ADP 213K estimate came in above the Investing.com forecast of 210K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is 215K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number). The Briefing.com PAYEMS consensus is 210K new jobs, but their own estimate is for a higher 245K.

Here is an excerpt from today’s ADP report:

“September’s jobs added number marks the sixth straight month of employment gains above 200,000,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “It’s a positive sign for the economy to see the 200,000-plus trend continue.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job gains remain strong and steady. The pace of job growth has been remarkably similar for the past several years. Especially encouraging most recently is the increasingly broad base nature of those gains. Nearly all industries and companies of all sizes are adding consistently to payrolls.”

Here is the press release from TrimTabs:

TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in September, down from 231,000 in August.

“Employment growth last month was the lowest in three months,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs Investment Research. “Nevertheless, it has averaged 204,000 per month this year, nearly double the pace of 116,000 per month in the same period last year.”

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 139 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.

“Our high-frequency macroeconomic indicators turned less strong across the board in recent weeks,” noted Santschi. In a research note, TrimTabs explained that the TrimTabs Macroeconomic Index dipped slightly in recent weeks after a…
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Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on October 31, 2014

The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly loss of 1.55%. All three S&P 500 MAs and three of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling “Invested”.

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy.

For a facinating analysis of the Ivy Portfolio strategy, see this article by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo:

Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the ETFReplay.com website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the top or back in at the bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve occasionally experienced over the past year.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops.

A look back at the 10-…
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Down 1.55% for September, But Up 0.62% for Q3

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 ended the third quarter with a day of fairly average price volatility. Today’s 0.82% intraday range from its 0.37% high to its -0.45% low is at the 55th percentile of the 188 market days in 2014. The loss for the day was -0.28%, giving us a -1.55% decline for the month, but the quarter ended with a modest gain of 0.62%.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.52%, up 2 bps from yesterday’s close and up 17 bps from the August close.

Here is a daily chart of the index. Thirteen of the 21 market days in September were declines, but the index is up 6.70% year-to-date.

On the monthly chart we can see that the price remains above its 10-month moving average.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

The chart below incorporates a percent-off-high calculation to illustrate the drawdowns greater than 5% since the trough in 2009.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

-->

For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

Click to View
Click for a larger image

Click to View
Click for a larger image





 

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

The Ethics Of Disease Control

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Logan Albright via Mises Canada,

As the threat of the ebola virus looms large and the Center for Disease Control issues what are undoubtedly hyperbolic projections of over a million casualties to the disease by January, we owe it to ourselves as libertarians to ask a few questions about the ethics of disease control. Is it acceptable to use force to isolate a person with a contagious disease from society, and if so, under what circumstances? How far are we permitted to go in the invasion of another person’s personal liberty in order to secure a safe environment for the rest of us?

We start, as always, with the Non-Agg...



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Phil's Favorites

Why the Fed Is So Wimpy

Outside the Box: Why the Fed Is So Wimpy

By John Mauldin

Another in what seems to be a small parade of scandals involving secretly recorded tapes of Federal Reserve regulators emerged last week. What a number of writers (including me) have written about regulatory capture over the past decade was brought out into the open, at least for a while. My brilliant young friend (40 seems young to me now) Justin Fox, editorial director of the Harvard Business Review and business and economic columnist for Time magazine, published a thoughtful essay this week, outlining some of the issues surrounding the whole concept of banking regulations.

Yes, the latest scandal involved Goldman Sachs, and it took place in the US, but do you really think it’s much different in Europe or Japan? Actually, there are those who a...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: October Opens with a Selloff

Courtesy of Doug Short.

When it comes to monthly market volatility in the S&P 500, October tops the list, ranging from its 16.3% surge in 1974 to its 21.8% plunge in 1987. How will October 2014 stack up on the volatility scale? Time will tell. But the month certainly opened on a weak note, dropping 1.32%, the sixth largest one-day decline so far this year. The index closed a bit off its -1.52% intraday low at the start of the final hour of trading. The intraday range was at the 96th percentile of the 189 market days of 2014.

The selloff in equities was matched by a rally in Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 2.42%, down 10 bps from yesterday's close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions

As we see on the daily chart, today's selling came on increased volume.

...

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Digital Currencies

The Mexican Libertad: The Currency Solution?

Better than a Bitcoin? The Mexican Libertad is a real coin made out of silver or gold whose value is based on the price of silver or gold. It's tangible, like our coins and paper money, but the value is pegged to its weight in previous metal. 

The Mexican Libertad: The Currency Solution?

By Jeff Thomas of The International Man

The Libertad is a Mexican coin that was first issued in 1981 in .999 fine gold and then in silver in 1982. Beginning in 1991, the Libertades became the only coins in the world that were issued in the convenient sizes of 1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 ounce—again, in both gold and silver. This made them very practical if they were to be used as currency.

But of course, gold and silver coin...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Mixed Economic Data, Ebola Scares Rattle Markets

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ALL The Allstate Corporation Is Now Historically Overbought And Nearing Resistance: Time For A Pullback? Marchex, Inc. Loses Third-Largest Customer, Cuts FY14 Outlook

U.S. stocks declined sharply as investors digest reports of a confirmed case of Ebola in the United States. In addition, economic data relea...



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Option Review

VIX Call Spreads Trade

The CBOE Vix Index topped 17.0 and the highest level since early-August on Monday morning amid declines in U.S. equities to start the trading week. The volatility index is off its earlier highs to trade 5.0% higher on the session at 15.65 as of 11:30 am ET. Options volume on the VIX is hovering near 360,000 contracts, or just more than 50% of the average daily reading of around 660,000 contracts. Calls are far more active than put options, as evidenced by the call/put ratio up above 4.2 in morning trading, perhaps as some traders position for volatility to stick around.

Large call spreads traded on the VIX today caught our attention as one big optio...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks fight off predictable weakness, but expect more downside

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Yes, the market showed significant weakness last week for the first time in quite a while. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved triple digits each day. But it was all quite predictable, as I suggested in last week's article, and certainly nothing to worry about. Now the market appears to be poised for a modest technical rebound, and longer term, U.S. equities should be in good shape for a year-end rally. However, I still believe more downside is in order before any new highs are challenged. Moreover, market breadth is important for a sustained bull run, so the challenge for investors will be to put together broader bullish conviction, including the small caps.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 29th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Market Shadows

Ebola vs. Us

Ebola vs. Us

By Ilene 

Ebola is spreading too quickly for Ebola-vaccine makers to conduct typical studies of safety and efficacy on experimental vaccines. Instead, vaccines will be tested for basic safety, but then deployed with protocols devised now in order to test for efficacy essentially on the field. Testing has to be expedited because the situation in West Africa gets worse every day while there are no approved vaccines or other treatments.

The chart below is from a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine showing estimates of the virus's trajectory projecting out to November 1, 2014. If current trends continue...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest issue of Stock World Weekly is now available. Please sign in with your PSW user name and password. Or simply take a free trial to try out our weekly newsletter. 

...

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Promotions

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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