Author Archive for Chart School

Market Recap May 5, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

Indexes opened up but once again buyers failed to show much spirit and we saw minor losses as most sat on the sidelines awaiting tomorrow’s employment data.  The S&P 500 fell 0.02% and the NASDAQ 0.18%.   It was a quiet day on the news front.

The NASDAQ continues to drift along our trendline in blue which connects multi year lows.  So if there is a strong reaction to the employment data tomorrow we should see the NASDAQ either bounce off this level or break through it.  It is probably going to take a very weak number to push the NASDAQ through a level like this so one might be apt to expect a “relief bounce” of some sort.  This was the NASDAQ’s 10th down day out of 11.

“An oversold bounce is likely to interrupt the pullback in the SPX today, but we think it will fade on weak short-term momentum,” BTIG Chief Technical Strategist Katie Stockton said in a morning note.  “Signs of short-term downside exhaustion have arisen in the technology sector and European equity benchmarks, supporting a few days of stabilization in those areas,” she said.

spx

nasdaq

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator remains near oversold levels.

NYMO

Facebook (FB) seems to be holding the $116 level on this breakout and is not really pulling back with the index, so if one must be long something it’s as good a name as any as long as that level holds.

fb

GoPro (GPRO) fell 6% in the normal session and another 6% in the after hours.  Talk about a fallen angel.

Battered wearable camera maker GoPro on Thursday posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue, but said sales plunged about 50 percent from the prior-year period.  The company reported a first-quarter loss of 63 cents per share on $183.5 million in revenue. Those figures compare with earnings of 24 cents per share and sales of $363.1 million in the year-earlier period.  Wall Street expected GoPro to report a loss of 60 cents per share on $169 million in sales.

gpro

Speaking of…. Fitbit (FIT) tumbled 19% on a weak quarterly outlook.

fit

Whole Foods Market (WFM) gained…
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S&P 500 Snapshot: Market Stalls in Advance of Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

Major markets around the globe saw little price movement today. Our benchmark S&P 500 rallied at the open, despite the biggest jump in new unemployment claims since January of 2015. The index hit its modest 0.44% intraday high about 45 minutes into the session. It then sold off to its -0.26% early afternoon low. The index then struggled to its -0.02% close. The 500 essentially went nowhere in advance of tomorrow employment report for April.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.76%, down three basis points from the previous.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

S&P 500

Here is a daily chart of the index. Volume in today’s decline was unremarkable.

S&P 500

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

S&P 500 Drawdowns

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

S&P 500 MAs

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

S&P 500 MAs

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.

S&P 500 Snapshot





A Closer Look at the Yesterday’s ADP Employment Report

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

In yesterday’s ADP employment report we got a March estimate of 156K new nonfarm private employment jobs, April estimate of 156K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decrease from March’s 194K, which was a downward revision from 200K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes a wealth of information that’s worth exploring in more detail.

Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company’s earliest published data in April 2001. This is quite a volatile series, so we’ve plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend.

ADP Nonfarm Private Employment

As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked 20 months before the last recession and went negative around the time that the NBER subsequently declared as the recession start. At present this indicator has been hovering around the 200K monthly new jobs since around the middle of 2011. It is showing no signs of weakening.

ADP also gives us a breakdown of Total Nonfarm Private Employment into two categories: Goods Producing and Services. Here is the same chart style illustrating the two. The US is predominantly a services economy, so it comes as no surprise that Services employment has shown stronger jobs growth. The trend in Goods Producing jobs went negative over a year before the last recession. At present this series is skating fractionally above contraction.

Goods Producing versus Services

For a sense of the relative size of Services over Goods Producing employment, the next chart shows the percentage of Services Jobs across the entire series.

Growth of Services Employment

There are a number of factors behind this trend. In addition to our increasing dependence of Services, Goods Production employment continues to be impacted by automation and offshoring. The percentage in the chart above has leveled off for the past six years, apart from a fractional upward slope during 2015. We will continue to watch the trend in the months ahead.

Note: For a longer-term perspective on the ratio of these two employment cohorts, see our periodic analysis, Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing, which is based on data from the Department of Labor reaching back to 1939.





RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Index: Another Increase

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

The latest index comes in at 2.6, a 1.8 point increase from the previous week’s revised 0.7.

RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, Credit Market Composite. RecessionAlert emphasizes that WLEI is a growth index and its data is no more than a week old, as is ECRI’s WLIg.

Here is an excerpt from the description:

Being a weekly growth index, it provides data with at most a 1-week lag, which is far more timely than the lag found on monthly economic indicators. Additionally, it is published on Thursday afternoons, a full 18 hours before the widely known ECRI Weekly Leading Index.

As with all weekly indices though, the data is far more volatile than monthly or quarterly indicators and the WLEI components are therefore subject to more false positives (calling recession when one does not occur.). The WLEI is heavily weighed toward financial market data, but the obvious advantage of this is that data revisions are minor and isolated to the Labor Market Composite and small portions of the Credit Market Composite.

RecessionAlert plans to add to the WLEI as they believe the categories are not broad enough to accurately predict all recessions. Link to description

The first chart uses data going back to 1973 and includes recession starts.

RecessionALERT WLI

Here we’ve zoomed in to the turn of the century and added in the ECRI WLIg for comparison. As you can see, the ECRI indiciator has repeatedly shown conspicuous contractions between recessions, enough to make an erroneous recesison call while the WLEI did not trigger such a call. The recent slow growth and market volatility is clearly evident in the WLEI, but not necessarily the WLIg. However, both indicators are in currently agreement in their directions of movement.

RecessionALERT and ECRI WLI Growth

Let’s look at the comparison with GDP growth since 1970. As you can see, not all negative GDP and slow growth has been matched by the WLEI, but all recessions match.

RecessionALERT and ECRI WLI Growth

Check back weekly as we watch this new indicator unfold and track economic health.





New Jobless Claims: Up 17K, Worse than Forecast

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 274,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 257,000. The 4-week moving average was 258,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 256,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. This marks 61 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973. [See full report]

Today’s seasonally adjusted 274K new claims was up 17K from last week’s 257K and above the Investing.com forecast of 260K.

The four-week moving average is at 258,000, up from last week’s number.

Here is a close look at the data over the past few years (with a callout for the past year), which gives a clearer sense of the overall trend in relation to the last recession and the volatility in recent months.

Unemployment Claims since 2007

As we can see, there’s a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (the highlighted number) is a more useful number than the weekly data. Here is the complete data series.

Unemployment Claims

The headline Unemployment Insurance data is seasonally adjusted. What does the non-seasonally adjusted data look like? See the chart below, which clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data (the red dots). The 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change (note, for example, those regular January spikes).

Nonseasonally Adjusted Claims

Because of the extreme volatility of the non-adjusted weekly data, we can add a 52-week moving average to give a better sense of the secular trends. The chart below also has a linear regression through the data. We can see that this metric continues to fall below the long-term trend stretching back to 1968.

Nonseasonally Adjusted 52-week MA

Annual Comparisons

Here is a calendar-year overlay since 2009 using the 4-week moving average. The purpose is to compare the annual slopes since the peak in the spring of 2009.

Yearly Overlay

For an analysis of unemployment claims as a percent of the labor…
continue reading





Market Recap May 4, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

Wednesday was another session where indexes opened down and buyers never really showed up.  The S&P 500 fell 0.59% and the NASDAQ 0.79%. This despite a pretty positive print in the ISM data:  ISM non-manufacturing for April was 55.7, above expectations and rising from March’s 54.5 print. The employment index rose to 53.0 from 50.3 the prior month.  Factory orders rose a more-than-expected 1.1% in March.   The ADP employment report for April missed expectations with a gain of 156,000.

“I’m definitely seeing a momentum shift and this market has seemed like a momentum-driven market these few months. If momentum does shift it feels like there’s not enough economic foundation and initiatives, what the Fed is going to do. … This is a pretty good challenge point for the market,” said Daniel Deming, managing director at KKM Financial.

The flurry of data continued to “paint a picture that can be described as ‘growth purgatory,’” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.  According to Arone, the U.S. economy is “stuck in low and slow gear” where data constantly miss expectations but they are not bad enough to indicate a recession is on the horizon.

The S&P 500 broke thru the 20 day and is now looking to test the 50 day moving average.  We stated earlier this week the NASDAQ – which already looked weak – would be in even more trouble with a close below our trend line in blue which connects multi year lows.  We are on that line now.

spx

nasdaq

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator has been in the red for a few days now – and is now approaching an oversold level.

NYMO

Tesla Motors (TSLA) cracked its 200 day moving average during the normal session on the loss of some key executives, but rallied a few percent to get back near $230 in after hours on earnings.

Tesla reported Q1 results that were largely in line with expectations.  The electric car maker reported an adjusted net loss of $75 million or $0.57 per share, which was a bit better than analysts’ expectation for net loss of


continue reading





Low Volume Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Today gave an inclination that selling could be slowing. Markets did experience modest losses, but these came on low volume and support is available for some indices.




The S&P has bearish MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI signals to contend with, but does have converging support at declining trend and then the 50-day MA.






The Nasdaq is caught in a no-mans land between 50-day and 200-day MAs and horizontal support. Today’s action was tight, which if there is a gap higher tomorrow would set up a possible bullish morning star. and potential swing low.





The Russell 2000 has drifted back to rising channel support. It’s a good place to look for a bounce, although a spike low down to the 50-day MA would be a good alternative intraday opportunity.





The index most in trouble is the Semiconductor Index. Selling has undercut the 200-day MA but this may be an oversell generated from the sharp breakdown.  Next support is down at 615, but a return above the 200-day MA might be enough to create a swing low.





Look for early strength to set up a swing low. It may not be the absolute low in the decline, but it could be nice 2-3 day long trade.




You’ve now read my opinion, next read Douglas’ and Jani’s.




I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would like to join me on eToro,


register through the banner link and search for “fallond”.




If you are new to spread betting, here is a guide on position size based on eToro’s system.









S&P 500 Snapshot: Another Down Day

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

Global markets had another down day. The Nikkei took a holiday, the Shanghai Composite slipped a fraction 0.05%, the SENSEX fell 0.51%, and the Hang Seng fell 0.73%. The Euro STOXX 50 dropped a more disappointing 1.19%. Our benchmark S&P 500 opened lower and sold off it waves to its -0.86% mid-afternoon low. A bit of afternoon buying trimmed the closing loss to -0.59%.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.79%, down two basis points from the previous.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

S&P 500

Here is a daily chart of the index. Volume in today’s decline was unremarkable.

S&P 500

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

S&P 500 Drawdowns

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

S&P 500 MAs

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

S&P 500 MAs

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.

S&P 500 Snapshot





ISM Non-Manufacturing: PMI Growth Continues at Slightly Faster Rate

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 55.7 percent, up 1.2 percent from last month’s seasonally adjusted 54.5 percent. Today’s number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 54.7 percent.

Here is the report summary:

“The NMI® registered 55.7 percent in April, 1.2 percentage points higher than the March reading of 54.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 58.8 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the March reading of 59.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 81st consecutive month, at a slower rate in April. The New Orders Index registered 59.9 percent, 3.2 percentage points higher than the reading of 56.7 percent in March. The Employment Index increased 2.7 percentage points to 53 percent from the March reading of 50.3 percent and indicates growth for the second consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 4.3 percentage points from the March reading of 49.1 percent to 53.4 percent, indicating prices increased in April for the first time in three months. According to the NMI®, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in April. The majority of the respondents’ comments reflect optimism about the business climate and the direction of the economy.

Unlike its much older kin, the ISM Manufacturing Series, there is relatively little history for ISM’s Non-Manufacturing data, especially for the headline Composite Index, which dates from 2008. The chart below shows Non-Manufacturing Composite. We have only a single recession to gauge is behavior as a business cycle indicator.

The more interesting and useful subcomponent is the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index. The latest data point at 58.8 percent is down 1.0 from a seasonally adjusted 59.8 the previous month.

ISM Non-Manufacturing

For a diffusion index, this can be an extremely volatile indicator, hence the addition of a six-month moving average to help us visualizing the short-term trends.

Theoretically, this indicator should become more useful as the timeframe of its coverage expands. Manufacturing may be a more sensitive barometer than Non-Manufacturing activity, but we are increasingly a services-oriented economy, which explains our intention to keep this series on the radar.

Here is a table showing trend in the underlying components.


continue reading





March Trade Deficit Down 6.5B from Revised February

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services.

The Bretton Woods agreement, which established a stable foreign currency exchange system collapsed in 1971 and as a result, currency values began to float freely and the US dollar was no longer tied to gold values. Since 1976, the United States has had an annual negative trade deficit. The International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the original World Bank which is still in existence) came out of the Bretton Woods agreement.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.4 billion in March, down $6.5 billion from $47.0 billion in February, revised. March exports were $176.6 billion, $1.5 billion less than February exports. March imports were $217.1 billion, $8.1 billion less than February imports.

The March decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $6.0 billion to $58.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.5 billion to $18.1 billion.

This series tends to be extremely volatile, so we use a six-month moving average. Today’s headline number of -40.44B was better than the Investing.com forecast of -41.50B. The previous month was revised downward by 140M.

Here is a snapshot that gives a better sense of the extreme volatility of this indicator.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

The First Casualty Is Truth

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Sprott Money.

The First Casualty is Truth
 Written by Jeff Thomas (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)


In the fifth century BC, Greek dramatist Aeschylus said, “In war, truth is the first casualty.” Quite so. Whenever national leaders decide...



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Phil's Favorites

EU Approves Deal With Turkey (Then All Hell Breaks Loose)

Courtesy of Mish.

On May 4, Brussels gave its approval to visa-free travel for Turks. That approval still needs to be ratified by a weighted average of ministers as well as the European parliament.

Just a few hours after the Brussels green light, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked Ahmet Davutoglu, the prime minister who negotiated the deal with German chancellor Angela Merkel.

In between, Renzi and Merkel held a love fest with an extremely skeptical France on the sidelines.

Final result: Uncertain but is Merkel pulling her hair out as her scheme is set to collapse.

My, how things change in a day.

EU Set to Approve Deal With Turkey

Flashback May 4: ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Patch Bankruptcies Hit $34.3 Billion (Value Walk)

The number of oil patch bankruptcies continues to rise, and the number of companies filing for creditor protection is accelerating, that’s according to according to law firm Haynes and Boone LP’s May Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor.

Oil Price Drop Vanquishes Cutting-Edge Projects (Wall Street Journal)

The wo...



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ValueWalk

Donald Trump - How the Ghost of Watergate Haunts This Election

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Donald Trump – How the Ghost of Watergate Haunts This Election

There is a line of reasoning in political circles that says Barack Obama created the phenomenon of Donald Trump.

I aver that Donald Trump is a creation of the post-Watergate media. Collectively we have made running for office so abso...



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Chart School

Market Recap May 5, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

Indexes opened up but once again buyers failed to show much spirit and we saw minor losses as most sat on the sidelines awaiting tomorrow’s employment data.  The S&P 500 fell 0.02% and the NASDAQ 0.18%.   It was a quiet day on the news front.

The NASDAQ continues to drift along our trendline in blue which connects multi year lows.  So if there is a strong reaction to the employment data tomorrow we should see the NASDAQ either bounce off this level or break through it.  It is probably going to take a very weak number to push the NASDAQ through a level like this so one might be apt to expect a “relief bounce” of some sort.  This was the NASDAQ’s 10th down day out of 11.

“An oversold bounce is likely to interrupt the pullback in the SPX today, b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

"I Can Only Say I'm Sorry" - Self-Professed Bitcoin "Creator" Can't Provide Proof, Backs Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Two years after Newsweek wrote an inaugural article upon returning to print in which it "unmasked" bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto and which turned out be a hoax (the author "found" Nakamoto using a white pages search), earlier this week the world was fixated on the story of another self-professed bitcoin "creator", this time Australian entrepreneuer Craig Wright, who &quo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500- Reversal patterns taking place of late at resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

How many of you like “Choppy/Sideways” markets? I humbly suspect that most don’t. They do present some short-term trading opportunities for sure, nothing wrong with that. From a trend perspective, I would understand if some think a sideways pattern is boring.

Below takes a close look at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The S&P 500 has spent the last couple of years, forming...



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Biotech

Cantor Says Relypsa's Veltassa Metrics Look Favorable

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Relypsa Inc (NASDAQ: RLYP) shares have plummeted 51 percent year-to-date, under pressure from debt-financing related concerns. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Mara Goldstein reiterated a Buy rating for the company, while reducing the price target from $42 to $41. The analyst believes the 1Q16 results would be “a stabilizing force for the shares.”

Positive Data Points For Veltassa Launch

Veltassa metrics look favorable so far, including a low payer rejecti...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 2nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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