Author Archive for ilene

Gang of 27 Hits UK with Impossible Demands: EU Seeks “Inferior” Deal for UK, Spain Wants Gibraltar

Courtesy of Mish.

A gang of 27 EU nations hit the UK with a parade of impossible demands. All the countries demand the UK grant free movement of people, but that is why the UK left.

In addition, Spain wants joint sovereignty over Gibraltar, Malta demands the UK get an “inferior” deal, the Czech Republic says “Four freedoms or no freedoms”, and Lithuania says the UK should “pay if they stay.”

For its part, the gang of 27 believe the UK has an impossible demand on immigration control that they cannot accept. If neither side gives, and that is increasingly likely, a hard Brexit looms, very hard.

Gang of 27 Demands

  • Four freedoms or no freedoms. The main sticking point is immigration.
  • Pay to play. The EU wants money for access.
  • Spain wants joint sovereignty over Gibraltar.

UK Demand

Immigration Restrictions

Four Freedoms

  1. The free movement of goods.
  2. The free movement of services and freedom of establishment.
  3. The free movement of persons (and citizenship), including free movement of workers.
  4. The free movement of capital.

EU Hypocrites on Free Movement of Capital


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What Lies Beneath

 

[Image from Pixabay]

What Lies Beneath

Courtesy of GEORGE MONBIOT

[Originally published (here) at The Guardian and cross-posted at George Monboit's website.]

It’s a simple choice: stop all fossil fuel prospecting, or break the Paris agreement on climate change.

Do they understand what they have signed? Plainly they do not. Governments like ours, now ratifying the Paris agreement on climate change, haven’t the faintest idea what it means. Either that, or they have no intention of honouring it.

For the first time, we can see the numbers on which the agreement depends, and their logic is inescapable. Governments can either meet their international commitments or allow the prospecting and development of new fossil fuel reserves. They cannot do both.

The Paris agreement, struck by 200 nations in December, pledged to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels”, and aspired to limit it to 1.5°. So what does this mean? Thanks to a report by Oil Change International, we can now answer this question with a degree of precision.

Using the industry’s own figures, it shows that burning the oil, gas and coal in the fields and mines that are already either in production or being developed is likely to take the global temperature rise beyond 2°. And even if all coal mining were to be shut down today, the oil and gas lined up so far would take it past 1.5°. The notion that we can open any new reserves, whether by fracking for gas, drilling for oil or digging for coal, without scuppering the Paris commitments is simply untenable.

This is not an extreme precautionary case. Quite the opposite in fact: the report uses the hazard assessment adopted by the United Nations. This means a 66% chance of preventing 2° of global warming and a 50% chance of preventing 1.5° – an assumption of risk that in any other field would be regarded as reckless. Even so, to prevent the odds from becoming any worse than this, a 2° target means that we can use only around 85% of the fossil fuel that’s currently good to go, while a 1.5° target…
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The Tracks of John Boehner’s Tears

 

The Tracks of John Boehner’s Tears

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

There are a few certainties in this world: fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly, John Boehner’s gotta cry. Remember how a year ago — just a year ago — the former speaker of the House wept when Pope Francis addressed a joint session of Congress? And then only a couple of days later announced he was stepping down as speaker?

There were tears then, too. In part, tears of joy, because Boehner no longer would have to deal with the Freedom Caucus, those tea party Republican bully boys who had been making his life miserable, threatening government shutdowns — and Boehner’s job — at every turn. As deeply conservative as he is, Boehner nonetheless realized that even in a grossly dysfunctional Congress at loggerheads with the president, occasionally some modicum of bipartisanship had to come into play or the entire enterprise would go belly up. The Freedom Caucus found such a rational thought revolting.

So, battered but unbowed, he quit, sang “Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah” when he declared his departure to the press corps and seemed greatly relieved to get out of government. He said he’d be playing more golf, relaxing, hanging out with friends. He’s been pictured mowing his lawn in Ohio and driving his RV across what he calls “America’s asphalt prairie.”

Yes, there he was, John Boehner, the tear-stained, chain-smoking man of leisure, right? You’ve got to be kidding. A fellow with his connections? He has been cozying up to corporate interests and their lobbyists since the 1990s. Boehner could no more stay away from Washington than a kitty cat could stay away from a dangling strand of yarn. He is back in the DC marketplace, where power and influence are the coin of the realm and he’s crying all the way to the bank.

A couple of weeks ago, Reynolds American, the second biggest tobacco company in America — and maker of Boehner’s favorite brand, Camels — announced that he was joining its board.

“John Boehner has always loved Big Tobacco,” Fortune magazine reported.

“In 1995, the former


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Pay Attention to How Oil Reacts the Day After OPEC News (Video)

Courtesy of EconMatters

We discuss the oil market, and the recent OPEC news regarding potential production cuts in November, and its effects on the market. A likely test of the $48 level seems in the cards this week.





A tale of two GDPs: Why Republicans and Democrats live in different economic realities

 

A tale of two GDPs: Why Republicans and Democrats live in different economic realities

Courtesy of Ian Anson, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

Back in 1992, Democratic strategist James Carville uttered his famous recommendation to Bill Clinton ahead of the 1992 election: “It’s the economy, stupid!” Political scientists beat Carville to the punch, though: As far back as the 1950’s, scholars were uncovering evidence that presidential candidates of the incumbent party tend to win when the economy is strong on Election Day.

Presiding over a gloomy economy, in contrast, will guarantee a tortuous uphill climb for parties vying to maintain their place in the White House.

After more than 50 years of scholarly research on this seemingly straightforward relationship, new insights from political psychologists have shaken the field. Their central finding should be apparent to anyone who remembers the last time their fiercely Republican aunt sat down to Thanksgiving dinner with her staunchly Democratic brother-in-law. Heading into the 2016 election, Aunt Reba the Republican is convinced the economy is in utter shambles, while Denny the Democrat is steadfast in his economic optimism.

As Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton trade economic talking points on Twitter, partisans’ beliefs about past and present economic conditions appear to be worlds apart.

These disagreements have alarmed people concerned about accountability in electoral politics. How can Americans reward or punish incumbents for their performance in office if they can’t agree on the basic economic facts?

In two recent papers, I take up this question by investigating how biased economic perceptions are formed and maintained. The results do not paint a particularly rosy picture of the future of economic accountability, for two reasons.

One is that contemporary partisan media play a subtle yet powerful role in forming these biases. Another is the discovery that partisans perform Simone Biles-esque mental gymnastics to maintain biases in their economic beliefs – even when they know things about the economy that go against their favorite partisan talking points.

James Carville’s famous 1992 slogan. Economy stupid via www.shutterstock.com

 

How media bias economic judgments

Partisan disagreement about…
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GDPNow 3rd Quarter Estimate Ticks Down to 2.8%: Looking Ahead, What’s in Store for the Forecasts

Courtesy of Mish.

In the wake of today’s durable goods report and last week’s housing reports the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for third quarter GDP ticked down 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%.

Latest forecast: 2.8 percent — September 28, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on September 28, down from 2.9 percent on September 20. The forecast of third-quarter real equipment investment growth fell from 1.5 percent to 0.8 percent after this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of third-quarter real investment residential growth, which now stands at –8.9 percent, declined by 1.3 percentage points on both September 22 and September 26 following the release of housing data on those dates.

gdpnow-2016-09-28

Looking Ahead

On Thursday the Census bureau posts an advance report on trade. On Friday, the Personal Income and Outlays report will highlight consumer spending.

Both GDPNow and the FRBNY update their models on Friday. The latest FRBNY Nowcast for 3rd quarter GDP was 2.26%.

Unless this week’s spending and trade reports are good, especially consumer spending, the FRBNY estimate could easily dip below 2%.


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Valuation is a Measurement of Soundness and Not the Primary Total Return Producer: Part 1

Courtesy of Chuck Carnevale.

Introduction

Much of what I write about is related to the importance of valuation in one way or another.  I do this, because I am a fervent believer that one of the most important metrics that investors should be considering before investing in a stock is the relative valuation of the shares they are purchasing.

To summarize what I’m saying, if they are interested in investing in a company and discover that the current market valuation is very high, I contend they should either wait or look elsewhere for better valuation.  In contrast, if valuation is fair or sound, then I contend they could comfortably go ahead and make the investment.  Finally, if the valuation is significantly undervalued, I contend they might consider investing aggressively.

However, before they even get to that step, they should be investigating a company that meets their specific goals, objectives and risk tolerances.  This is vitally important, because valuation is not the final say in the rate of return they can expect from their investment in a given company.  Instead, valuation is primarily a measurement of soundness or risk.

Although it is an important component of the possible rate of return they might achieve, it is not the primary driver.  Once sound valuation is identified, from there the primary driver of future returns will be the growth rate of the earnings and dividends (if any) that the company generates going forward.  Investing when valuation is sound empowers the investor to safely earn a rate of return that is commensurate with the operating results that the company they invest in produces in future time.

With this article, I intend to demonstrate the importance of fair valuation and how it mitigates risk, and how it can be utilized to assist in evaluating the future rate of return you can expect from investing in a given stock.  This is consistent with the importance and utilization of the P/E ratio as a measurement of soundness or fair value.  In my experience, both the relevance of fair valuation and the importance of the P/E ratio are grossly misunderstood by many.  With this article, I intend to bring some enlightenment and better understanding of both.

Choose Common Stock Investments That Are Appropriate to Meet Your Goals or Objectives

There are many types of common stock investments available to investors.  In other words,


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Algeria Privatizes State Banks On Oil Price Slide

 

Algeria Privatizes State Banks On Oil Price Slide

By Erwin Cifuentes at Oilprice.com

 Algiers coast

A couple days ahead of the informal OPEC meeting in Algiers regarding the stability of oil prices, Algeria has announced its plans to privatize their state banks in reaction to the decreasing price of oil, according to a senior financial official interviewed for Reuters, and like Saudi Arabia, appearing to hunker down and ride out the low-priced environment that is likely here to stay.

The official, who wished to remain nameless, said that Algeria’s government would enact reforms in order to allow foreign entities to make controlling investments in the six state-run financial institutions that account for much of Algeria’s banking industry.

The collapse in the price of oil has placed immense financial pressure on the North African state whose energy sector contributes to 60 percent of the federal budget and that earns 95 percent of export revenue via the selling of natural gas and oil. The Wall Street Journal cited International Monetary Fund estimates anticipating Algeria’s gross domestic product would fall by 3 percent this year, while oil and gas revenue will be half as much as 2015.

“The era of $100 a barrel is over. We have no choice but to change our policy,” the official mentioned to Reuters on condition of anonymity. The move may be telling of Algeria’s confidence that OPEC members will be able to reach an agreement regarding production levels for its members, and possibly Russia.

“Reforms will move slowly, but there will be no step backwards.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member has made spending cuts and sought alternative sources for financing in order to make up for the loss in oil revenue. The raising of taxes and peeling away at the deep welfare system has raised worries over increased social tensions.

Despite the government’s actions, Algerian oil minister Nourredine Bouterfa on Sunday expressed his optimism that representatives of countries at energy discussions starting this Wednesday in Algiers will at least agree to a framework for the freezing of oil prices. Yet prices tumbled by 3.5 percent on Tuesday alone as investors worry that a production freeze will not be reached at the…
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Factory Orders Flat, July Revised 0.8% lower

Courtesy of Mish.

Factory orders did way better than the Econoday consensus estimate of -1.9% but that was against a revision that took July from +4.4% to +3.6%. The good news pretty much stops there.

Highlights

The headline, at a monthly zero percent, is flat and so are the indications from the bulk of the August durable goods report. Excluding transportation, orders slipped 0.4 percent. This reading excludes a 22 percent downswing in civilian aircraft orders that is offset in part, however, by a solid 0.7 percent gain for vehicle orders. Readings on core capital goods (nondefense excluding aircraft) are mixed with orders up 0.6 percent, which points to shipment strength ahead, but current shipments are down -0.4 to extend a long string of declines going back to May. The weakness here in shipments is a negative for business investment in the GDP report.

Aside from vehicles and a strong gain for defense capital goods, good news is hard to find in today’s report. Total shipments are down 0.4 percent following no change in July while unfilled orders, which last posted a gain in April, fell 0.1 percent. Inventories did fall, down 0.1 percent, but not enough to keep the inventory-to-shipments ratio from rising to a less lean 1.66 from July’s 1.65.

Another negative in the report is a downward revision to July where the gain in total orders is shaved 8 tenths to 3.6 percent. But July was still a very strong month and the August results, though flat, are better than expected. Still, the data point to more of the same for the factory sector, a flat trajectory reflecting weakness in global demand and specific weakness in business investment.

Except for continual nonsense about lean inventories, that was a nicely balanced report by Econoday for a change.

Durable Goods

durable-goods-2016-09a

Durable Goods Percent Change from Year Ago

durable-goods-2016-09b

Durable Goods Excluding Transportation

durable-goods-2016-09c


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New Home Sales Biggest Monthly Decline In History – A Warning Shot

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

The Commerce Department reported [on Monday] that sales of newly built homes posted a seasonally adjusted month to month decline of 7.6% to an annualized rate of 609,000. This was near the consensus guess of economists of 602,000 according to the Wall Street Journal. In terms of the game of pin the tail on the donkey-economists, it was a non-event.

The Commerce Department also reported that the August headline number was up 20.6% year to year. That sounds good until you look at the actual data.

The actual, unmanipulated figures showed a total of 50,000 new homes sold in August, compared with 57,000 in July, a drop of -12.3%. That was much worse than the typical month to month decline in August. Last year the August drop was -4.7% month to month. The average August decline for the prior 10 years was -5.6%. In fact, this was the largest August month to month decline in history, going back to 1963 when the Federal Government began collecting this data.

This August had the advantage of 2 more business days than August 2015 possibly giving the August numbers a boost. New home sales are counted at the time they go under contract. While sales contracts can be signed on weekends in this business, it’s the exception. The numbers were the worst in history, even with that boost. In cases like this, economists usually blame the weather. I guess it was too hot to buy houses. Global warming, yeah, that’s the ticket!

The year to year change gives a different perspective. That was still up 22%, which sounds good until you note that the sales rate remains near the lowest levels in history. At the same time mortgage rates are at the lowest level in history.

The 22% year to year increase compares with an annual rate of change in July of +32.6%. The last time there was a larger year to year increase in July was 1983. That was coming off the 1982 recession low. Before that was 1971. We have to wonder if this July was the blowoff phase of this much ballyhooed “recovery.” If so, it’s all downhill from here.

While the market had 2 more years of modest gains after that move in 1983,


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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Thursday September 29, 2016

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Thursday September 29, 2016:

Qualcomm Said to be in Talks to Acquire NXP Semiconductors for $30B+

The Rumor:
Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) is said in talks to acquire NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ: NXPI), according to sources as reported by Dow Jones on Thursday. The sources said a deal, which could happen over the next two to three months, would likely be valued at over $30 billion, though NXP's market cap was already over $32 billion following the report.

NXP Semiconductor...



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Zero Hedge

This Is How Much Liquidity Deutsche Bank Has At This Moment, And What Happens Next

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It is not solvency, or the lack of capital - a vague, synthetic, and usually quite arbitrary concept, determined by regulators - that kills a bank; it is - as Dick Fuld will tell anyone who bothers to listen - the loss of (access to) liquidity: cold, hard, fungible (something Jon Corzine knew all too well when he commingled and was caught) cash, that pushes a bank into its grave, usually quite rapidly: recall that it took Lehman just a few days for its stock to plunge from the high double digits to zero.

It is also liquidity, or rather concerns about it, that sent Deutsche Bank stock ...



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ValueWalk

IRS Walks Tightrope in Plan to Use Private Debt Collectors

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

IRS Walks Tightrope in Plan to Use Private Debt Collectors

The Internal Revenue Service is looking to use private contractors to help collect tax debt but some warn there is a risk of increased scams and abuse.

The IRS announced its intent to use private debt collectors  Sept. 26 in response to a congressional order. The federal agency hopes to have the program operational by spring. The idea could help the agency to more efficiently collect tax debt, but it might also be opening the door to fraud and abuse.

“What makes it worse is the prevalence of these scam artists who call pretending to be IRS collectors,ȁ...



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Phil's Favorites

Beating Your Own Investments

Beating Your Own Investments

Courtesy of 

Add Julian Robertson and Howard Marks to the long list of billionaires that are less than optimistic about the future. All the reasons they cite are unfortunately very compelling, but pessimists always sound intelligent. You can probably count on one hand the number of investors that were actually able to capitalize on their pessimism.

But let’s say all these billionaires are right and U.S. stocks will in fact experience lower returns going forward. A good strategy would be to have your rate of investment outpace the return on your investment. As an example, let’s say you’ve saved some money and have $10,000 to invest. An...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Fed’s Lockhart Sees Potential for Raising Rates ‘Before Long’ (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank is nearing its goals of maximum employment and steady inflation near 2 percent, leaving the economy primed for an increase in borrowing costs.

U.S. Economy Expanded at Revised 1.4% Rate in Second Quarter (Bloomberg) ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stocks and Crude Oil hung up by this key pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below compares the price patterns of Crude Oil and the NYSE Index over the past 8-years. Crude and the NYSE don’t always correlate, over the past couple of years though, they have in a big way!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since early 2015, the correlation between Crude Oil and the NYSE has been very high. They both hit highs together in 2015 at (1) and they both created double bottom lows together at (2).

Over the past 15-months, both appear to be ...



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Mapping The Market

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

By Jean-Luc

Good riddance – cleaned up a lot of frauds there:

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

In early 2009, the seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion. Today, they’ve been all but wiped out.

When Barack Obama took office, America’s seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion, with more than 815,000 students enrolled at campuses spread across the country. The schools were flooded with with people seeking shelter from the recession, returning to school to pick up new skills.

Almost eight years later, the industry has been decimated. The seven largest listed operators are worth just over $6 billion, and the most valuable co...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cach...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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