Author Archive for ilene

JPMorgan Chase Writes Arrogant Letter to Its Swindled Forex Customers

Courtesy of Pam Martens.

Troy Rohrbaugh, Head of Foreign Exchange Trading at JPMorgan Chase, Chairs the New York Fed's Best Practices Group for Foreign Exchange Trading

Troy Rohrbaugh, Head of Foreign Exchange Trading at JPMorgan Chase, Chairs the New York Fed’s Best Practices Group for Foreign Exchange Trading. JPMorgan Chase Just Pleaded Guilty to a Felony for Conspiring to Rig Foreign Exchange Trading.

As the U.S. Department of Labor deliberates giving JPMorgan Chase a waiver to continue business as usual after it pleaded guilty to a felony charge for engaging in a multi-bank conspiracy to rig foreign currency trading, a letter the bank sent to its foreign currency customers should become Exhibit A in the deliberations. The letter effectively tells JPMorgan’s customers, here’s how we’re going to continue to rip your face off.

Two sections of the letter stand out in particular. One section reads:

“As a market maker that manages a portfolio of positions for multiple counterparties’ competing interests, as well as JPMorgan’s own interests, JPMorgan acts as principal and may trade prior to or alongside a counterparty’s transaction to execute transactions for JPMorgan…” (Italic emphasis added.)

Most of the general public believes that proprietary trading (trading for the house) was outlawed by the Volcker Rule under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. Most of the public believes that trading ahead of your client’s order is called front-running and is illegal. On both points, the public is dead wrong. First, the Volcker Rule has yet to be implemented. Its effective date continues to be pushed forward. Secondly, foreign exchange spot trading between big banks and institutions (like the folks who manage your pension money) is an unregulated market left to the non-legally-binding “best practice” agreements by the biggest banks. As we reported on May 14, the Chair of the group drawing up these best practices is Troy Rohrbaugh, the head of Foreign Exchange trading at JPMorgan Chase since 2005 – including the periods for which the bank has been charged with felony conduct.

Making this best practice committee even more specious is that it is sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, part of the Federal Reserve which just fined JPMorgan Chase $342 million for lacking “adequate Firm-wide governance, risk management, compliance and audit policies and procedures to ensure that the Firm’s Covered FX [foreign exchange trading] Activities conducted…
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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

There’s no denying the effect that fees have on investments. While the difference between a fee of 0.5% and 0.25% looks tiny on paper, apply it to an index fund over a quarter-century or more of investing and let the effects of compounding work on it and you can easily see a worker winding up with tens of thousands of dollars less on account at retirement.

So it’s easy to see how and why the case protects workers and retirement savers.

The potential problems from the ruling are much harder to see, but they’re just beneath the surface now and likely to surface as the effects of the ruling play out.

7 Lies Investors Tell Themselves (Market Watch)

After six years of rising U.S. stock prices, investors are no doubt richer. But they may be thinking a little less clearly.

“In a bull market, there’s a tendency for investors to think they’re brilliant,” says Brad Barber, a finance professor at the University of California, Davis, and an expert in behavioral finance. Indeed, as share prices climb, investors’ confidence grows and they start making all kinds of dubious claims.

Here are seven comments you have probably heard from friends—and that may have escaped your own lips.

Here's your complete preview of this week's big economic events (Business Insider)

It's a short week in America as everyone takes Monday off to celebrate Memorial Day and enjoy some barbecue with their friends and family.

Surely, they'll also be


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Polish Voters Elect Eurosceptic President; Disenchantment with Brussels Spreads

Courtesy of Mish.

Andrzej Duda outed president Bronis?aw Komorowski, the the pro-Brussels incumbent centrist Civic Platform party president, in an election over the weekend. Komorowski was expected to win.

The Duda Victory Sent Shockwaves Through Polish Politics, and no doubt Brussels as well.

The win for the socially conservative, nationalist, eurosceptic party, which saw Mr Duda oust Bronis?aw Komorowski, the government-backed incumbent from the presidential palace, represents a significant lurch to the right in Polish politics. It has sent shockwaves through the country’s political establishment that could ultimately topple the ruling party in October after eight years in power.

Backed by both the country’s restless, anti-establishment youth and its conservative pensioners, Mr Duda’s election, which was unthinkable just a few months ago, represents a significant and far-reaching rejection of the ruling Civic Platform party.

Mr Duda has called for a repatriation of more powers from Brussels to individual member states, an effort that chimes with British prime minister David Cameron’s attempts to renegotiate the UK’s relationship with Europe ahead of a referendum on its EU membership.

The vote illustrated deep divides in Polish society. Despite headline growth figures since 2008 that are almost twice as large as any other EU member, the fruits of Poland’s economic boom have not been equally shared.

Strikingly, all of the country’s poorer eastern regions backed Mr Duda, while the more prosperous western regions supported Mr Komorowski without exception.

In rural areas, 62 per cent of voters backed Mr Duda, according to an exit poll, while Mr Komorowski carried 59 per cent of votes from the country’s cities.

Poland Vote

Disenchantment with Brussels Spreads

The Polish unemployment rate is a modest 7.8%. Youth unemployment is 20.5% as of March. Both numbers are better than France and far better than Spain.



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Debating Hillary for President: Robert Reich v. Nomi Prins

Courtesy of Pam Martens.

Robert Reich Explains How to Tame Wall Street In New MoveOn Video

Robert Reich Explains How to Tame Wall Street In New MoveOn Video

Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary in Bill Clinton’s administration and currently Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley, is an important voice for tackling income inequality in America by bringing back the Glass-Steagall Act, busting up the too-big-to-fail banks, and imposing a securities transaction tax.

In 2013, Reich released a documentary, “Inequality for All,” that demonstrated that there is a finite equilibrium of income distribution at which the U.S. economy can grow and prosper. In 1928 and 2007, the year before each of the greatest financial crashes in our nation’s history, income inequality peaked. When workers are stripped of an adequate share of the nation’s income, they are not able to function as consumers, creating a vicious cycle of layoffs and slow economic growth – the situation the U.S. has been mired in since the Wall Street crash of 2008.

Unfortunately, Reich, an otherwise clear-eyed progressive has a deep blind spot. Her name is Hillary Clinton. In a column posted to his blog last month, Reich had this to say about Hillary:

“In declaring her candidacy for President she said ‘The deck is stacked in favor of those at the top. Everyday Americans need a champion and I want to be that champion.’

“Exactly the right words, but will she deliver?

“Some wonder about the strength of her values and ideals. I don’t. I’ve known her since she was 19 years old, and have no doubt where her heart is. For her entire career she’s been deeply committed to equal opportunity and upward mobility.”

This is more than a dangerous, rickety limb for Reich to be climbing out on when the financial stability of the nation hangs in the balance. During the primary challenge in 2008 between Barack Obama and Hillary, Reich made headlines by endorsing Obama despite his long-term friendship with the Clintons. That decision was at least partly influenced by what Reich called Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (HRC’s) “Odd Economics.” In an April 2008 post on his blog, Reich appeared to intuitively understand that the same men who deregulated Wall Street and mushroomed the derivatives gambling casino under Bill Clinton would be back in power in a Hillary presidency.

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Whatever Happened to Antitrust?

 

Whatever Happened to Antitrust?

Courtesy of Robert Reich

Last week’s settlement between the Justice Department and five giant banks reveals the appalling weakness of modern antitrust. 

The banks had engaged in the biggest price-fixing conspiracy in modern history. Their self-described “cartel” used an exclusive electronic chat room and coded language to manipulate the $5.3 trillion-a-day currency exchange market. It was a “brazen display of collusion” that went on for years, said Attorney General Loretta Lynch. 

But there will be no trial, no executive will go to jail, the banks can continue to gamble in the same currency markets, and the fines – although large – are a fraction of the banks’ potential gains and will be treated by the banks as costs of doing business.

America used to have antitrust laws that permanently stopped corporations from monopolizing markets, and often broke up the biggest culprits. 

No longer. Now, giant corporations are taking over the economy – and they’re busily weakening antitrust enforcement. 

The result has been higher prices for the many, and higher profits for the few. It’s a hidden upward redistribution from the majority of Americans to corporate executives and wealthy shareholders. 

Wall Street’s five largest banks now account for 44 percent of America’s banking assets – up from about 25 percent before the crash of 2008 and 10 percent in 1990. That means higher fees and interest rates on loans, as well as a greater risk of another “too-big-to-fail” bailout.

But politicians don’t dare bust them up because Wall Street pays part of their campaign expenses. 

Similar upward distributions are occurring elsewhere in the economy. 

Americans spend far more on medications per person than do citizens in any other developed country, even though the typical American takes fewer prescription drugs. A big reason is the power of pharmaceutical companies to keep their patents going way beyond the twenty years they’re supposed to run.

Drug companies pay the makers of generic drugs to delay cheaper versions. Such “pay-for-delay” agreements are illegal in other advanced economies, but antitrust enforcement hasn’t laid a finger on them in America. They cost you and


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Angry Voters Hand Spain’s Ruling Party Heavy Regional Losses; Podemos Scores Upset Victories in Barcelona, Madrid

Courtesy of Mish.

The Spanish economy will supposedly grow at three percent. The bad news is Spanish employment is well over 20 percent and is also expected to stay that way.

Angry voters unhappy with that setup took it out big time on PP, the party of prime minister Mariano Rajoy.

Please consider PP Suffers Heavy Regional Losses.

Spain’s ruling Popular party suffered heavy losses in Sunday’s string of regional and local elections, as two upstart movements made dramatic gains at the expense of the country’s established parties.

The PP still emerged as the biggest party in nine of the 13 regional contests, but its ability to head governments at both the regional and local level was severely curtailed. According to preliminary results, the party of Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s prime minister, failed to obtain an absolute majority even in its historical strongholds — meaning it can govern only with the support of at least one of its rivals.

The PP suffered a particularly marked decline in Madrid. Esperanza Aguirre, its high-profile candidate for mayor, beat a coalition of leftwing groups only by the smallest of margins but has little prospect of forming an administration. A similar leftist alliance also scored an upset triumph in Barcelona, meaning Spain’s two principal cities are now likely to be led by a pair of charismatic, leftwing women from outside the political establishment: Manuela Carmena in Madrid and Ada Colau in Barcelona.

The ruling party’s losses were mostly the gain of two political newcomers, the anti-austerity Podemos movement and the centrist Ciudadanos party. Both were on track to enter regional parliaments in force in several key regions, potentially handing them the role of kingmakers. Podemos was also the leading force behind the two municipal victories in Madrid and Barcelona.

Sunday´s elections took place in 13 of Spain’s 17 regions and in more than 8,100 municipalities, providing a crucial test of the national mood ahead of general elections later this year. The overall picture, based on preliminary results, confirm what polls have been saying for months: frustrated voters are turning away from the established parties in ever greater numbers, converting Spain’s decades-old two-party regime into a much more volatile four-horse race.

Like Syriza in Greece, Podemos had been running on an anti-austerity platform. Podemos went even further, threatening to exit the euro.


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Canaries In The Coal Mine, Part 2: Three Chinese Stocks Lose $40 Billion In One Week

Courtesy of John Rubino.

The Chinese stock market’s spectacular run is turning into a stagger:

Two more Hong Kong stocks collapse after Hanergy crash

(AFP) — Two of Hong Kong’s best-performing stocks plunged more than 40 percent Thursday, a day after a mysterious crash of almost 50 percent in Chinese solar firm Hanergy that saw almost $20 billion wiped off its market value.

Goldin Financial sank 43.34 percent to HK$17.48 and Goldin Properties crashed 40.91 percent to HK$14.36, after soaring more than 300 percent since the start of January, according to Bloomberg News.

The drop slashed the firms’ combined market value by more than $20 billion.
The companies, which have interests ranging from property development in Hong Kong and China to vineyards in California and France are owned by Chinese tycoon Pan Sutong.

The dramatic sell-off came after a 47 percent dive in Beijing-based solar energy firm Hanergy Thin Film Power (HTF).

Trading in the firm was suspended after 24 minutes, but not before $19 billion was struck off the firm’s value. The company said it would make an announcement containing “insider information” in the wake of the suspension, although it has not yet done so. HTF had surged more than sixfold in the past year, making it the world’s largest solar power company by market value, but prompting questions over its valuation and revenue sources.

Even by tech standards, those are big, fast moves. And the bull market in which they occurred is also pretty epic. From London’s Telegraph:

China’s stock market bubble shows no sign of bursting yet

Last week I wrote that the market in German Bunds had become a bit too exciting for some investors. By the orderly standards of fixed income investing, the ups and downs of bond prices may have been a bit frisky. But they pale into insignificance compared to what’s going on in Shanghai and Shenzhen. China is becoming the Wild West of investment.

Since the start of the year, the Shanghai index has risen by 37pc and its sister exchange in Shenzhen is up by 53pc. Over the past year the two markets have risen by 122pc and 96pc respectively. That’s punchy enough, but it fails to tell the whole story. Many individual shares have done much more. Beijing Baofeng Technology, a video company, rose by 44pc on its first day on the Shenzhen market


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Greece Will Default on June IMF Repayment Says Interior Minister

 

Greece Will Default on June IMF Repayment Says Interior Minister; Greek Choice Same As It's Always Been

Courtesy of Mish.

One way or another the crisis in Greece is highly likely to come to a head in June.

Greek finances are in such sorry shape it needs a third bailout or it will be unable to meet payment obligations in August. And unless an agreement in June is reached to unleash more funds, Greece will not make it to August.

Today we learn, Interior minister warns Greece will default on June IMF repayment.

Greece has again threatened to default on loan repayments due to the International Monetary Fund, saying it will be unable to meet pension and wage bills in June and also reimburse €1.6bn owed to the IMF without a bailout deal with creditors.

“The money won’t be given . . . It isn’t there to be given,” Nikos Voutsis, the interior minister, told the Greek television station Mega.

He claimed the EU and IMF were pressuring Greece to make unacceptable concessions in the current bailout talks in return for unlocking €7.2bn of aid frozen since last year.

Predicting when Athens will run out of cash has proven a fraught affair for eurozone officials, who have been bracing for default since March.

Given the repeated warnings from Greek officials that bankruptcy is imminent, some officials have begun to disregard such threats, believing Athens is now using them as a negotiating tactic.

But a senior Greek official with knowledge of the government’s funding position confirmed that Athens would be unable to make the IMF payments, which fall due in four separate instalments of more than €300m each between June 5 and June 19, unless a deal is struck.

“We won’t accept blackmail that says it’s either liquidity with a memorandum [the Greek term for a bailout programme] or bankruptcy”, Mr Voutsis said.

The government has ruled out a domestic default on payment obligations to Greece’s 2.9m pensioners and 600,000 public sector workers, saying they have first claim on the country’s shrinking resources.

People who have spoken to Mr Tsipras say he is in a dour mood and willing to acknowledge the serious risk of an accident in coming weeks….

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Three and a half years since the last 10% correction

If the S&P 500 does not have a 5% correction this year, it will be the first time in 20 years. And it's been 3.6 years since the last 10% correction. And trailing and forward PEs are relatively high. In the low interest rate environment, higher-than-normal stock prices are the new normal, but how much higher? And should we expect a reset with the Fed's plans to ease the interest rate higher?

Three and a half years since the last 10% correction

Courtesy of 

Deutsche Bank is out with a piece of research this weekend mentioning the fact that the S&P 500 has just broken a record high thanks to a median trailing PE ratio of over 18 – the highest we’ve seen since 2010. They note that this PE ratio is 12% above the long-term average going back to 1960. The forward PE of 17.3 times earnings expectations over the coming four quarters is 22% above the historical median. David Bianco attributes this, as almost all of us do, to the incredibly low yields on bonds and their effect on the equity risk premium.

More interestingly, Bianco includes an acknowledgement that it has now been 916 days since the last 10% correction for the index, or 3.6 years (last October’s Ebola /ISIS sell-off was 9-and-change percent intra-day). We’ve not had even a 5% correction so far in 2015 despite a spate of elevated volatility earlier in the year.

Here’s David Bianco and Ju Wang:

We believe the probability of a 5%+ dip is high this summer and our tactical call remains Down given the S&P now at an even higher PE than a year ago, heightened uncertainty in 10yr yields, weak earnings growth and continued soft economic data. We haven’t had a 5%+ dip this year. Historically 5%+ dips are common and happen at least once a year since 1960, except 1964, 1993 & 1995. It has been 916 trading days (3.6 years) since a 10% correction. Selloff triggers could be a further rise in 10yr yields especially if UE keeps falling amidst slow economic growth and Fed remains unclear on first hike timing, or a jump in the dollar upon the Fed expressing firm intentions to hike in Sept.

Screen Shot 2015-05-23 at 10.48.16 AM

Source:

S&P hits record high on 18 trailing PE, PE will be sensitive to Treasury yields
Deutsche Bank – May 22nd, 2015

Picture by Geralt at Pixabay.

 





Psychology more Important than Data in the Week Ahead

Courtesy of Marc to Market

The US dollar's recovery last week may not get the kind of fundamental support that medium and long-term investors would like to see to raise the confidence that the two-month correction has run its course.  

Owing to a greater deterioration of net exports and a smaller than expected inventory build, Q1 GDP is likely to be revised sharply lower.  The 0.2% expansion may turn into a 0.8-1.0% contraction.  Although it is backward looking, especially given that the second quarter is two-thirds when the revision is announced, it does have an important implication.

It means that rather than raise rates in June, as many of us had previously anticipated, the Federal Reserve will have to cut its GDP growth forecast for the entire year.  In March, the Fed's central tendency forecast, which excludes the three highest and three lowest forecasts was 2.3%-2.7%.  It is possible that growth in the first half is flat or barely positive.  This means that even if growth in the second half averages 3%, GDP for the entire year would be about 1.5%.  To reach the current Fed forecast, the economy would have to expand by close to 5% in H2.

The projection for growth in the current quarter could edge higher if the details of the April durable goods orders report on May 26 is firmer.  The headline activity may slip on the back of lower aircraft orders.  Boeing reported its April orders slipped to 37 from 39 in March.  However, orders, excluding defense and aircraft and shipments of the same, which are inputs for capex and GDP forecasts, should both be above Q1 averages.

Separately, the Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys, and the Chicago PMI and Milwaukee ISM will also likely boost confidence that the world's largest economy is not recession-bound.  Whereas the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow suggests the US economy is tracking 0.7% growth in Q2, we expect the incoming data to gradually lift this estimate.  The increase in aggregate income (~5% year-over-year) and the increase in savings (~$125 bln in Q1) will likely provide the fuel for stronger consumption going forward.

The economic data is one thing, but how the markets respond to it is a different matter.  For the better part of the…
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Phil's Favorites

Robo-Journalism Will Produce 1 Billion Web Stories in 2015 (This Isn't One of Them); McJournalism Coming Up

Courtesy of Mish.

Replaced by a Robot

I sometimes get asked what I am going to do when I am replaced by a robot. On other occasions, I get emails from people hoping I get replaced by a robot.

Those in the second group typically accuse me of not knowing what it is like to not have a job.

Actually, I do know what it is like to be without a job for an extended period because I was jobless for several years between 2001 and 2004.

I started this blog hoping someone would hire me as writer. The Motley Fool had an opening for a writer and turned me down for the position.

With the exception of the bit about the Fool position that I wanted and needed, I have written about this before on several occasions, most recently on January 30, 2015, in ...



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Zero Hedge

Are Hedge Funds Worth More Than Kindergartens?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Gold Standard Institute.

by Keith Weiner

"The top 25 hedge fund managers made more than all the kindergarten teachers in the country," declared President Obama in a discussion of poverty at Georgetown University. Calling them “society’s lottery winners,” he proposed to hike their taxes.

Predictably, battle lines have been formed between two polarized sides. One side—let’s call them the Gauche for convenience’s sake—is unhappy with the pay disparity. CBS News, in an almost neutral tone, asks, “Which group provides...



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Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 26, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

Last week we remarked how the S&P 500 finally had broken out of a multi month range… but then it did little.  Usually once a stock/ETF moves out of a long range it has a pronounced move; but the S&P 500 didn’t – it barely budged.  Today that move collapsed.  The S&P 500 fell 1.03% and the NASDAQ 1.11%.   Most pointed to some vague increase in a chance of a rate hike but this is too much tea leaving – the Federal Reserve has said everything is data dependent.

U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Tuesday that markets should not be surprised by the timing or pace of rate hikes.

In economic news, durable goods for April showed a decline of 0.5 percent, roughly in-line with expectations. Non-defense...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

U.S. Dollar/Yen breaks 18-year resistance line, good for Nikkei 225?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The chart above takes a look at the U.S. Dollar/Yen ratio over the past few decades. Monthly resistance line (1) has been in play for the past 18-years. As the month of May is nearly over with, the US$/Yen is making an attempt to break above this long-term resistance line.

It is frequently expressed that Yen weakness, can be a positive for the Nikkei 225 index. Below looks at the Nikkei Monthly, over the past 30-years.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart reflects that the Ni...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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