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American Express Commentary

Here’s an article on AXP by Andrew Horowitz, courtesy of the Disciplined Investor.

American Express (AXP): False Sense of Security?

It is no secret that I am no big fan of the bank and financial sector, particularly the consumer credit divisions. The numbers out from American Express Company (NYSE:AXP), show that during Q1 they saw a 6% decrease related to credit card losses and reported a significant increase in total spending and credit usage by customers. So essentially, they are lending more money during a time when they are seeing a higher level of delinquencies and defaults. (Scratching head…)

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
April 24 (Bloomberg) — American Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card lender, reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as income rose overseas. The company climbed more than 4 percent in extended New York trading.

Net income from continuing operations at the New York-based company declined 11 percent to $974 million, or 84 cents a share, American Express said today in a statement. That’s 4 c… continue reading


Is Fed Causing a Global Food Crisis?

Barry Ritholtz discussing the Fed causing the global food crisis, link to an article entitled "Why the Economy is Worse than we know. "

Is the Fed Causing a Global Food Crisis?

Harpers_cover_3Excerpt: "The Federal Reserve’s irresponsible bailout of Wall Street’s most reckless players is having very significant repercussions, both in the US and abroad.

It starts with the US dollar, now off 40% from its highs earlier this decade. This has had a huge impact on commodity prices, and is the prime reason so many countries are considering dropping their peg to the US Dollar.

Overseas, price spikes in basic foodstuffs has led to riots and political unrest. Considering that in many regions of the world most of a family’s income goes to basic survival purchases such as food shelter and energy, it doesn’t take much in the way of price rises to lead to significant turmoil. According to Bloomberg, the average household in India spent 32% of its income on food last year. Compare that with 6% in the U.S., and 43% in Indonesia, or 36% for the Philippines.

 

Digging deeper into this situation is the cover story of the May 2008 edition of Harpers is titled "Why the Econ… continue reading


Truck Nutz

A little off topic, from Mish, for anyone up late at night having trouble sleeping. If something’s bothering you, this could take your mind off it.

Congress Threatens Oil Producers

Before we discuss Congressional threats on oil producers, let’s first consider the Florida legislature’s move to ban fake testicles on vehicles.

Senate lawmakers in Florida have voted to ban the fake bull testicles that dangle from the trailer hitches of many trucks and cars throughout the state.

Republican Sen. Cary Baker, a gun shop owner from Eustis, Florida, called the adornments offensive and proposed the ban. Motorists would be fined $60 for displaying the novelty items, which are known by brand names like "Truck Nutz" and resemble the south end of a bull moving north.

Some might think that legislators have better things to do than debate "Truck Nutz". Not me. I would like to see state and national legislators spend more time debating "Truck Nutz", flag burning, baseball steroids, the nation anthem, and motherhood and apple pie on the general principle the more time they spend debating frivolous topics of no economic importance, the less likelihood they will do real damage somewhere else.

For example, please consider U.S. arms sales to OPEC at risk over oil.

Democrats in the U.S. Sena… continue reading


Cool to be Frugal

 

Thoughts on coolness from Mish. Do the parents out there reading this agree?

Cool to Be Frugal

Changes in behavior begin with changes in attitudes. And there’s no better place to build a proper attitude than in the youth of America.

Cool to Be Frugal

Professor Depew was once again on top of the changing attitudes story with point number 5 of Monday’s Five Things.

We ran across an interesting piece in USA Today this morning playing right into our theme of a growing wave of resentment against consumption and a disassociation from luxury goods and symbols of wealth.

According to the article, "Teens Turn to Thrift as Jobs Vanish and Prices Rise," rising costs of typical teenage indulgences are causing teens to do something they rarely do: be thrifty. As the article notes, "It’s even becoming cool to be frugal."

Let’s take a closer look at the article.

The stalwart retailers of teen apparel, such as Abercrombie, based in the Columbus, Ohio, suburb of New Albany, and American Eagle Outfitters Inc., are reporting sluggish sales, defying the myth… continue reading


Trade Energy Now?

Trade Energy Now?

Minyanville professor Adam Michael is commenting on the Geopolitics of Peak Oil.

A few weeks ago, I highlighted the fact that the U.S. government was topping off the strategic petroleum reserve at a time when oil prices were over $100 and during an election year. I also mentioned that Vice President Cheney was in the Middle East at the end of March and I would add that President Bush met with Vladimir Putin just a few weeks ago. Something didn’t smell right and based on the trading in crude in the past few weeks, we’re starting to understand why.

This week, we learned that the Israelis did in fact bomb a Syrian nuclear reactor last year and the United States in now claiming that the North Koreans were assisting the Syrians in their efforts. Today, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff accused the Iranians of increasing their efforts to train and arm insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Folks, the saber rattling is getting louder and its no wonder that crude is back to all-time highs. I’m not sure what the agenda is, but it does appear that the Bush administration is trying to 1) force a confrontation or 2) get everyone to the negotiating table. This feels like high-stakes poker to me.

The crude oil market has shown how sensitive it is to every little supply disruption. There simply isn’t enough product to go around and demand has shown no sign of abating.

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Further Musing on Solar Stocks

Here’s some excerpts from an article written by Jack Yetiv, posted at Seeking Alpha.  He has written previous articles on solar companies, which you can find by clicking on his name. 

Further Musings on Solar Stocks

“Yesterday, my third article on the solar space appeared on these virtual pages. That article built upon my two … continue reading


Five Things

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Phil's Favorites

Dave's Daily

MARKET COMMENT

November 19, 2008, courtesy of Dave Fry at ETF Digest. 

 

Another Big Wednesday? Oh yeah! Of course what Laird Hamilton is doing in this video is an awesome ride of guts but ultimately beautiful at the same time. We can’t say the same thing about the stock market now can we?

more from Ilene

Trading Goddess

Post Comments

(no, no... that is not me!
Add a couple decades, dye the hair brown,
have a couple children and voila!
That's is me!)...

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The Options Report

By Andrew Wilkinson and Rebecca Darst



JPMorgan decline sets off bullish option bets for 2009

Today’s tickers: JPM, BBY, ACE, IRM, SHLD & CSCO

JPM – JP Morgan Chase & Co. – With the market in meltdown mode, investors are once again departing all shades of financial shares. There are new lows today at several major financial institutions including blue-blooded JP Morgan. The 52-week $28.87 low is a radical shift from the $50.50 52-week peak set three days into October. We’re not sure many financial companies can claim to have traded annual peaks and lows in such a short space of time, but this underscores the negative outlook for the economy and companies regardless of shade. Options on JPM are in play today with large buying of this week’s expiring 30 strike puts at 1.40 premium. Today’s investor interest at that strike is equal to the outstanding number of puts at the strike and shows h

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Stock and Option Trades
(Advanced option strategies)

Fuzzy Math!

Have you ever seen literature from a fund posting attractive gains and comparing its performance to that of the benchmark S&P 500?  Have you ever investigated how the figures listed were calculated?  If not, you will definitely want to read on! Let's take a fairly representative example.  Fund Manager Joe Bull, for example, is very good at generating profits in bull markets.  Let's say Joe Bull made 20% in each of the years 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007.  But Joe Bull does not have the toolset to survive bear markets and finds in 2008 that he is down 30%.  What has Joe Bull's return been over 5 years? It turns out, the answer to that questions depends greatly on what Joe Bull wants to report as his return!  Why? Because little regulation exists to prevent Joe Bull from choosing any number of mathematical approaches to calculate his return! For example, fund manager Joe could simply take the average of his returns over 5 years.  This would be calculated as the sum of 2 more from Option Trades

Option Sage
(Strategy and Education)

Trivia Time!

Let's say you decide to deposit $100,000 into a brokerage account.  You decide you will check your portfolio on a weekly basis.  Now let's further assume that the first week has passed and you are about to log in to your account.  But before you do, you are told that one of two things has happened in the past week.

[1]  Your portfolio went up $10,000 and then dropped $10,000

[2]  Your portfolio went up 10% and then dropped 10%.

So, the trivia question is:  In case [1], what should you expect your account value to be and is that the same figure as in case [2]?

If you answered $100,000 in case [1], you would be absolutely correct!  If you answered that this is the same as in case [2] you would be absolutely incorrect!  Why?  Well let's take a look at what happens when the portfolio rises 10% first; it goes from $100,000 to $110,000.  But then we're told it drops 10%.  10% of $110,000 is $11,000 more from Option Sage


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