Posts Tagged ‘AAPL’

Apple Options Ahead Of Earnings Release

Not surprisingly, Apple options are active ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report after the bell on Monday. Shares are in rally mode, up almost 1.1% on the day at $130.06 on Thursday afternoon. Volume as of the time of this writing (3:30 pm ET) is approaching 786,000 contracts, which is approximately 105% of the average daily options volume traded on AAPL of around 750,000 contracts. Much of the volume changing hands during today’s session is in the Apr24 ’15 expiry weekly calls, which expire ahead of the company’s earnings release. But, a review of open interest on Apple reveals interesting patterns. Open interest is largest by far in 130.0 strike call options across all available expiries. There are approximately 505,000 open call positions at the 130.0 strike on Apple at present. Much of that open interest, roughly 20% of it, is in the regular May expiry 130.0 calls.

Chart – Apple put & call open interest

 


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Apple Options Volume

Courtesy of Caitlin Duffy of IB

Traders exchanged more than one million option contracts on Apple (Ticker: AAPL) today amid a 1.2% dip in the price its shares. The 1.04 million contracts traded so far in the session compares to an average daily options volume for Apple over the past 10 days of roughly 750,000 contracts. The below snapshot displays the day’s option volume split out into call and put options across active strike prices. The chart includes monthly expiration options, while excluding weeklys. The 125.0 strike April 17 ’15 expiry calls and puts are most active today, but cease trading as markets close out another week this afternoon.

 


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Release Of Fed Minutes, Icahn Tweet Boost Shares In Apple

Shares in Apple (Ticker: AAPL) are near their highs of the session in the final hour of trading on Wednesday, adding to the muted gains seen earlier in the day, following the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes and after activist investor and Apple shareholder Carl Icahn tweeted, “Tmrw we’ll be sending an open letter to @tim_cook. Believe it will be interesting.” Icahn’s tweet hit the ether at 2:33 pm ET and was met with a spike in volume in Apple shares. The stock is currently up 2.0% on the day at $100.75 as of 3:15 pm ET.

Chart – Apple rally accelerates after Icahn tweet


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#Bendgate Hoax Exposed – Who is Attacking Apple?

iPhone 6 Plus GIF 3What a controversy!  

By now, we've all seen the "Bengate" video of the iPhone 6+ being bent by hand but now it turns out that the video that's gone viral may have been FAKED!!!  This is a video that knocked 5% off AAPL's stock price this week, costing its investors $30Bn in lost market value – so not a harmless hoax.

As a disclaimer, it's important to note that, in our first Webcast of the year, we picked AAPL as our top trade idea and again, on TV on March 6th, I was almost embarrassed to say AAPL was once again our trade of the year for BNN (it was last year's trade too).  AAPL is up 33% since than and our initial trade idea is up over 300% (we used options for leverage) but we still have bullish AAPL trades in our Member Portfolios – so we do like the company and have some bias…

That being said, we don't know the bias of "Unbox Therapy" and we don't KNOW that it's a hoax but it's starting to seem like one as AAPL has already put out a rare public statement rebuffing the claim, stating that only 9 customers to date have complained of bent phones (out of 20M sold) and now Consumer Reports has done a test confirming that, indeed, you can't bend an iPhone 6 Plus with your bare hands.  

Speaking of hands, there are some inconsistencies in the Unbox video that are very disturbing.  First of all, look at the hands in the image above and then look at the guy narrating the video – people are saying those are not the same hands.  That may or may not be the case but it is certainly the case that there's a huge discrepancy in the video itself:

iPhone 6 BendGate analysisAs you can see, the phone he is bending "live" at 1:38 in the video says it's Tuesday, 23rd at 2:26 but then, 40 seconds later, the "same" phone says it's 1:58.  This is not an editing discrepancy since he had an UNBENT phone just seconds before 2:26 that
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Technical Tuesday – Rejected, Rejected, Rejected!

So much for 2,000 holding.

Fortunately, our Big Chart kept us cautiously bearish into the weekend and the hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio functioned perfectly, gaining $13,000 on the day and completely offsetting the drop of $8,000 in our Long-Term Portfolio. 

That's without our big hedge, DXD, kicking in yet, as the Dow is still over 17,000 but, should it fail, we'll see those STP gains multiply quickly.  

For those of you who are not Members, and don't have access to our various Member Portfolios (and you can by subscribing here), we have done our best to prepare you for this drop as well.  Last Thursday, right in the morning post, I shared our short stance with the general public, saying

It's going to be crazy into the weekend but, in our Live Chat Room this morning, I said to our Members:

Futures pumped back up to yesterday's highs at 17,125, 2,001.50, 4,080 and 1,156.5 so I like shorting below 17,100, 2,000, 4,075 and 1,155 – short the laggard, out of any of them cross back over – very simple! 

That's our plan into the weekend.  As I've mentioned before, we're also using DXD ($24 at the time), TZA ($14.68) and SQQQ ($35.26) to hedge our long portfolios – just in case things unravel over the weekend.  We also discussed FXI ($40.30) puts earlier in the week as a play on China melting down so PLENTY of ways to profit from the downside.

INDU DAILYThis morning, the Futures are 17,050 on /YM (up $375 per contract), 1,979 on /ES (up $1,125 per contract), 4,035 on /NQ (up $900 per contract) and 1,116.50 on /TF (up $4,000 per contract) – so that strategy went pretty well.

In last Wednesday's post, we also shorted Oil Futures at $95 and oil fell to
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Monday Market Outlook – Finally Over S&P 2,000 – Now What?

SPY 5 MINUTE2,000 finally held!  

It was a really ugly hold but we did hold 2,000 on the S&P all day long on Friday and that, as I've said for a long time, is finally a signal we need to do a little bottom-fishing.  We have already been picking up some material stocks in our Live Member Chat Room, including adding BTU ($13.29) on Friday morning to our Income Portfolio, despite a Goldman Sachs downgrade that cost them 5% pre-market.

Coal has been getting a bad rap this year as China has slowed down and, of course, its environmentally unpopular (and 300,000 people marched in NYC this weekend for action on Climate Change) but the reality is, coal use isn't going away anytime soon.  

In fact, 65% of China's energy comes from coal and, for the first time ever, China passed the EU in pollution levels per capita with each person in China producing 7.2 tons of carbon dioxide on average compared with 6.8 tons per European and just 1.9 tons per Indian.  

Of course, none of them hold a candle to the US, where we proudly produce 16.4 tons of CO2 per person!  

Still, with 1.3Bn people, China has now passed the US in overall carbon emissions, contributing to a new Global Record of 40Bn tons of CO2 added to the atmosphere in 2014.  According to a recent UN study, at this rate, the theoretical limit for carbon in our atmosphere (before irreversible damage sets in) will be hit in just 30 years.  But don't worry folks, that's just science and we can always vote Republican and ignore it. cheeky

Remember – we ARE Koch!  

Emissions grew 4.2 percent in China, 2.9 percent in the U.S. and 5.1 percent in India last year. The EU’s pollution level declined 1.8 percent because of weaker economic growth.  So coal is not going away as soon as people think and we have been literally burning off the surplus this year.  In Europe, utilities are switching back
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Friday Follies – Will Today be the 13th Day Below S&P 2,000?

SPY 5 MINUTE12 failures so far.

12 trading days since the S&P first hit 2,000 (Aug 25th) in which we have failed to hold 2,000 for a full day.  Not one and, unless the Futures pop 10 points before we open, not today either.  On 10 of those days, we've had a late-day run-up on low volume that popped us over 2,000 and on 7 of those days, 2,000 held at the close but EVERY SINGLE DAY – it also failed to hold.  

Let's not forget that, during this time, we've had TRILLIONS of Dollars of additional stimulus pledged by Carney, Draghi, Kuroda and other minor Central Banksters and Yellen has certainly been as doveish as she could by (while still tapering our existing Trillion Dollar stimulus).  This is how our market behaves WITH Trillions of Dollars of cash being pumped into the Global economy – I wonder what will happen when it stops?  

Of course, maybe it won't stop but, if it doesn't, this chart will look even uglier.  This is a chart of our projected net annual interest payments on our debt in 10 years.  That's $880 BILLION Dollars each year, just in interest payments, up $650Bn from the $233Bn we are spending now.  

That's WITHOUT additional stimulus so I guess we can go for a bit more and make it an even Trillion, right?  These are what we used to call CONSEQENCES – back when we used to care about such things.  The US is not the leader in debt issuance, not by a long shot.  Japan is 150% more in debt than we are and China has now doubled our debt to GDP ratio, after having been a creditor back in 2007 but now the undisputed king of stimulus spending.    

EWG WEEKLYEurope is also a mess.  As I said to our Members in an early-morning Alert:  Another thing the US Media is purposely ignoring is the 12.5% correction in Europe (example on Germany chart) since July that, so far, has bounced weakly (4-point drop on EWG has weak bounce at 28.8 and strong at 29.6) – failing exactly
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Which Way Wednesday – How Low Can We Go?

INDU DAILYWhat a fun market to play!  

Yesterday, in our Live Member Chat Room (you can subscribe here), at 11:13, in anticipation of a wierd day, I put up a bullish and a bearish trade idea for our Members.  The cool thing is, both sides won!  Our two trade ideas (which we went over in our Live Webcast at 1pm) were:

If you want to play for an AAPL pop this afternoon, the QQQ weekly $100 calls are just .40 and QQQ topped out at $100.33 yesterday.  Figure AAPL pops 2.5% and that pops the Nas and QQQ 0.5% so $100.50 + premium could be good for 50% if AAPL gets a good reaction – if not, it's probably going to lose less than a direct play on AAPL would. 

TZA/Sn0 – Well TZA is only at $14.50 so the spread is half in the money at net $1.25 so it still has good upside if you add to it but I'd rather get the Jan $15/20 bull call spread at $1 as that gives you more time and more upside – if your TZA hedge goes in the money.  That way, you can take $2 off the table on the Oct spread and know you still have plenty of upside if TZA keeps going up on you and also less downside exposure if it flips the other way.  

When our 1pm Webinar started (at the same time Apple's conference started), the QQQ calls were just 0.42 and still playable and, as you can see on the chart, we even had a dip down to 0.30 briefly but that line held and we then jumped 100% back to 0.60 and then on to 0.72 before dropping back to 0.60, where we took our expected 50% gains and ran.  

If you missed our Webcast yesterday, you should check out the replay because we discussed WHY we made that particular pick and HOW we selected it – very educational!  That's because, at Philstockworld, our goal is to TEACH you to be a great trader – not just give you great trades.  


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Testy Tuesday – Apple Will Give the S&P a Pass or Fail

iWatchToday is the day.

There’s a lot riding on Apple’s massive iPhone 6 and iWatch event. Since the first iPad in 2010, the big question on everyone’s mind has been “what comes next?” Apple updates its lineup on a fairly predictable schedule, but products that push the company into entirely new categories have been few and far between.

That hasn’t hurt Apple financially by any stretch; in fact, it continues to make more on each device it sells than just about anyone. Still, a constant stream of promises from Apple’s top execs have drawn out the idea that something big is just around the corner.  That something big is very likely making its debut at Apple’s event next Tuesday, which kicks off at 1pm EST / 10am PST and we'll be covering it live today during our Live Trading Webinar (1pm EST).

iPhone 6On top of the rumor pile are expectations for:

  1. Bigger IPhones (to go after Samsung market share) + 10%
  2. NFC and Mobile Payments (transaction revenues) + 20%
  3. iOS8 (pushing iCloud) + 5%
  4. iWatch (new product) + 20%
  5. Apple TV (home integration) + 10%

So those are the most likely announcements and they have the POTENTIAL (if all goes well) to add 65% to AAPL's already massive market cap.  Just enough, in fact, to make AAPL the world's first $1Tn company in 2016.  We're already playing AAPL bullish in two of our PSW Portfolios but we have been since they were $450 ($64 post-split) and we're already up 50% (AAPL was our Stock of the Year selection), so we hedged a bit at $105.  

NFCThe question for us is – do we remove those hedges in anticipation of AAPL's 2 consecutive 30% annual runs that we are predicting but, with AAPL already up 25% this year at $100 and having already been rejected at 30% ($105), we're keeping our partial cover – at least until we see the public's reaction to the new product line

While it could be argued that a lot of good news is priced in, I think NFC/Mobile Payments is being completely missed along…
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Apple Options Volume Explodes As Shares Slip

Volume in Apple Inc. (Ticker: AAPL) options is spiking today as shares in the name slide back into double-digits after yesterday trading up to a fresh record high of $103.74. Upwards of 1.5 million options contracts have changed hands on the stock by midday, which compares to average daily volume of around 940,000 contracts. Shares in AAPL are down roughly 4.5% on the day at $98.60, helped lower in part by comments from Pacific Crest analyst Andy Hargreaves, as investors await the company’s September 9 media event in Cupertino, California.

As of the time of this writing, roughly 1.9 call options are trading for each single put option changing hands on the stock. Perhaps some traders are taking profits following the stock’s roughly 30% rally since the start of 2014, or alternatively, picking up calls at relatively discounted premium levels amid the day’s selloff in the view that shares may potentially bounce back. The pop in implied volatility on the name, up 22% on the day at last check, could also be attracting traders to the options as well. Trading is most active in near term calls and puts. Specifically, the Sep 05 ’14 102.0 strike calls and the Sep 12 ’14 107.0 strike call options have each traded upwards of 66,000 times, trumping existing open interest levels. The Sep 05 ’14 99.0 strike put options are seeing volume in excess of 59,000 contracts as of midday.


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ValueWalk

Big-Money Speculators Are Buying Up and Renting Out Farms, and Pricing Real Farmers out of the Market

By AlertNet. Originally published at ValueWalk.

tpsdave / PixabayBig-Money Speculators Are Buying Up and Renting Out Farms, and Pricing Real Farmers out of the Market

John Steinbeck’s novel “Grapes of Wrath.” Woody Guthrie’s ballad “Deportee.” Edward R. Murrow’s documentary “Harvest of Shame.” Every decade or so, the public is shocked by yet another discovery that migrant farmworkers are being horribly abused by the wealthy masters of the corporate food system. And here we go again. Last November, the New York Times…

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The post Big-Money Speculators Are Buy...



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Phil's Favorites

Proudly Permabullish

Maybe Joshua Brown's quite period is over? He did at least emerge from his vacation to post Proudly Permabullish, which is a reminder to look at the stock market between reading depressing news articles from me. (5-year S&P 500 chart from Yahoo.)

Proudly Permabullish

Courtesy of 

It’s become fashionable in the age of social media to derisively sneer at our fellow investors who are too optimistic and refer to them as “permabulls.” This sort of thi...



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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Look everywhere, trouble brewing in Europe, China and US. How can the change thats coming not break something?

Good video covering Europe, China and US!




Gann angles (1 point to draw a line, not 2 like a trend line)

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Apex, a point of demand and supply battle to end, and a price move for the winner.

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Mapping The Market

Why Facts Don't Change Our Minds

Courtesy of Jean Luc

Good article about facts and why we reject them:

WHY FACTS DON’T CHANGE OUR MINDS

New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.

By Elizabeth Kolbert

In “Denying to the Grave: Why We Ignore the Facts That Will Save Us” (Oxford), Jack Gorman, a psychiatrist, and his daughter, Sara Gorman, a public-health specialist, probe the gap between what science tells us and what we tell ourselves. Their concern is with those persistent beliefs which are not just demonstrably false but also potentially deadly, like the conviction that vaccines are hazardous. Of course, what’s hazardous is not being vaccinated; that’s why vaccines were created in the first place. “Immunization is one of the triumphs of modern medicine,” the Gormans no...



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Market News

Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Courtesy of John Rubino.

US stocks finish at record high. Gold and silver at multi-week highs. Bitcoin near all-time high. Trump national security adviser scandal evolving, EPA chief controversy ramping up after email release. Debate over Putin and fake news intensifies.  

Best Of The Web

It’s bubble time! – Peak Prosperity

Dazed & confused… Treasury buying vs. asset valuations? – Econimica

...



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Digital Currencies

As Bitcoin Surges To Record High, China Prepares Its Own Digital Currency

Courtesy of Mike Shedlock (Mish)

Bitcoin hit an all-time high over $1200 today.

Traders are happy because the SEC is expected to rule on a Bitcoin ETF by March 11.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports China Is Developing its Own Digital Currency.
 

After assembling a research team in 2014, the People’s Bank of China has done trial runs of its prototype cryptocurrency. That’s taking it a step closer to becoming one of the first major central...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil; Energy stocks suggesting its about to fall, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below takes a look at the price action of Crude Oil, Energy ETF (XLE) and Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) over the past three years.

Could Energy stocks be suggesting the next big move in Crude Oil again? Which direction are they suggesting?

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

At this time the intermediate trend in Cru...



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Members' Corner

The Manchurian President

 

The Manchurian President

Courtesy of  at BillMoyers.com

As the Trump presidency unravels, unraveling the country along with it, there is no real political antecedent, no lessons from American history on which to draw and provide guidance. We are in entirely uncharted waters.

But there is an antecedent in our popular culture that provides a prism through which to view the contemporary calamity, especially the alleged collusion between Trump’s henchmen and Russian intelligence to deny Hillary Clinton the presidency. I am not the first observer who has ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

Learn option strategies and how to be the house and not the gambler. That's especially apropos since we'll be in Vegas....

Join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017            

Beginning Time:  9:30 to 10:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesars Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesars has offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night but rooms are limited at that price.

So, if you are planning on being in Vegas (Highly Recommended!), please sign up as soon as possible by sending...



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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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