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Fall Down Thursday – Buy the Dips?

$2,000!  

That's how much money yesterday's Alert to Members made as of this morning as the Russell Futures crossed our goal line at 1,150.  The alert went out at 9:52 am and we had all day to enter as the Russell drifted along that line until, finally, we got our big drop this morning.  

My call in the morning was:

I still like the /TF play below the 1,170 line – that's got $2,000 written all over it (down to 1,150).

RUT WEEKLYWe actually oveshot that mark with the bottom coming at 1,140, which is our -5% line on the Big Chart, which uses our 5% Rule™ to make these amazingly profitable predictions.  Those extra 10 points were ANOTHER $1,000 per contract for those who hung on past our goaaaaalllllll!!!

Even if you are a free reader, you got your money's worth – as we gave away, FOR FREE, our TZA Aug $14 calls at .91 on Tuesday's post.  Sure it was 50% after our Members got the trade at .66 on July 3rd, but beggers can't be choosers, right?  Still, even if you only began following our hedge at .91, those calls are now $1.50 in the money, so up another 50% this morning for a $1,180 profit on the 20 we suggested in just two days!

That's just one of the many ways we teach our Members to make money by hedging at PSW (you can subcribe here) we expected this sell-off (see last two week's worth of posts) and positioned for it with trades like:

  • DXD Aug $25/27 bull call spread (6/27 in main post) at net 0.60, now $1.15 – up 91% 
  • TZA Aug $15s calls (6/27 at 11:26) at .70, selling Jan $12 puts for $1 for net .30 credit, now 0.45 – up .75 (250%)
  • 40 SQQQ Aug $40/44 bull call spreads (1/3 at 11:29) at $1.15 ($4,600), now $2.15 – up $4,000 (86%)
  • 20 QQQ July $97 puts (1/7 at 9:35)  at $1.59 ($3,180), now $3 ($6,000) – up $2,820 (88%)

So our average hedge (ignoring the out-performing TZA) is up 85% on a 5% dip.  That's exactly what hedges are supposed to do!  That way, we can put a little bit of our profits into protective play and they help to lock in our gains when the market does finally reverse on us.  

Of course we also have tons of fun with Futures trades too, but these options trades are great hedges for any portfolio.  We discuss these trades live in our weekly webcasts each Tuesday at 1pm (last replay available here), if you'd like to get an idea of what we do in our Live Member Chat Room every day (but without the video, of course).

Meanwhile, as we can see from our Big Chart, we have a classic Spitting Cobra pattern on all of our indexes so we expect a 5-10% pullback from the highs.  

The Russell already made a perfect move from 1,200 to 1,140 and, keep in mind, these are levels we predict not months but YEARS in advance!  

If this is going to be a shallow correction (indicating we can buy the dips), then 1,140 should hold on the Russell and we'll look for a weak bounce to 1,150 and a strong bounce back to 1,160 while the S&P holds their 5% up line at 1,942.50 (good so far). 

The Dow is testing their 5% down line at 16,720 this morning (funny how so many of our predictions get hit on the nose, right?) and we'll certainly need to see the Nasdaq take back 4,400 before we even consider a bullish play – even on our beloved AAPL, which is also taking the dip we bet on in our Income Portfolio, which has 35 short Jan $87.14 calls at $9.25 half-covering our long position. 

We already used the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) as a short this morning in Member Chat, below the 3,850 line and that's been good for a 5-point, $100 per contract gain already.  We switched to them when the Russell hit 1,140 as we expected a bounce there.  

That's a strategy we call "getting fresh horses."

 


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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 104.90
    R2 – 104.25
    R1 – 103.02
    PP – 102.37
    S1 – 101.14
    S2 – 100.49
    S3 – 99.26

    First line under $100 for a while!


  2. Maybe the Shiller CAPE needs to be adjusted – long article but interesting if you are a fundamentalist as CAPE is a good metric in general:

    http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/shiller/

    Fortunately, we can fix the inconsistency in the Shiller CAPE by building the metric with the Pro-Forma earnings data set rather than the GAAP earnings data set. The following chart shows the Pro-Forma CAPE alongside the GAAP CAPE, going back to 1954 (to calculate the average earnings in the 10 year period prior to 1954, we used GAAP for both metrics, since the two were very close in that general era):

    cape-pf2


  3. Unfortunately, the earnings data on Dr. Shiller’s website, which are used to build the Shiller CAPE, are not based on a consistent definition of “earnings” across time.  The data are taken from S&P “reported” earnings, which are formulated in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).  But the standards of GAAP have changed significantly over the last few decades.

    One of the most important changes involves how “goodwill” is accounted.  Conceptually, a company’s earnings can be thought of as the change in its book value before dividends are paid.  When one company buys another, the purchase price is almost always higher than book value–usually multiples higher.  But if the buyer pays a higher price for the company than its book value, then his own book value is going to fall in the acquisition.  He’ll be parting with more cash than he’ll be receiving in net assets from the company that he’s taking in.  To avoid the creation of an illusory loss, he is allowed under GAAP to add the difference between the payment price and the book value to his balance sheet as an intangible asset–called “goodwill.”  This addition keeps his own book value constant, and prevents him from having to report an accounting loss.


  4. Good morning!  

    6 is the winning number in this weeks mass-shooting poll and Texas is the winning state.  Congratulation to all who back the NRA!  Actually, the NRA says if only those kids had guns, they could have defended themselves – there's a good solution…

    Oil/StJ – As I said last week – I can't imagine what they think they will do with all those fake orders if Holiday Demand turns out to be disappointing.  Still 208M open barrels and the clock is ticking towards the rollover on the 22nd – 8 days.  That's 26M per day but hard to get rid of when there are no buyers and Sept is already stuffed with 240M worth of fake orders.  

    Shiller/StJ – All I know is the aggregate S&P earnings are about $104 (if they hold up) and the S&P is at 1,950 so that's 18.75 to me.  Screw all this other nonsense and anyway, who wants to buy the S&P as a whole.  We pick the companies that are good deals and short the companies that are bad deals, so the p/e of the entire S&P is only relevant as a very general indicator.  It's funny how that article mentions that the earnings measurements are not consistent across time without worrying about the fact that the Dollars those earnings are measured in aren't consistent either.  I like that guy's site, lots of wonky things to look at. 

    Ouch!  Europe way worse now, down over 2.5% in Italy and Spain and down 1.8% in Germany and France with UK holding up at just about -1%.  All zooming to new lows as we speak.  Since we know a 2.5% move down in a single day for an index is catastrophic – I certainly wouldn't be looking to play any bounces on our indexes this morning.   Things could get much worse!  


  5. Phil what's the word on oil today. Was looking to short below 102, but since about 8am it keeps popping back over 102 instead of continuing down. So are you still shorting below 102 or has the action told you anything different? I am hoping that it is just a matter of patiently waiting for the expected drop. What are your thoughts? Has there been any news or events that would change your assumptions?


  6. Sorry about the redundant oil question. your comment from 9:21 popped up as I was composing and sending my question. Obviously you still like the short. So, as Emily Littella would say…. "nevermind"


  7. I asked about TSAR earnings yesterday, here is the PR:

    TASER ( NASDAQ :  TASR ) today announced that the second quarter 2014 earnings call is scheduled for Wednesday, July 30, 2014. A conference call is scheduled at 11:00 a.m. ET to review the second quarter financial results


  8. Oil/Craigs – Same as yesterday, I have no interest at the moment, just curious to see if $102 holds or not.  No change in the SCO spread as that's way out to Oct but, otherwise, it's time to sit on the sidelines and see what happens.  

    I know the Futures are very exciting but don't get so wrapped up in them that you forget to take nice, sensible trades like SCO.  We did 20 of the Oct $22/26 bull call spreads, selling the $24 puts for net $1,200 in the STP and SCO is already at $26 so, if oil stays below $102 into Oct, we get $8,000 per set.  That's 566% in 3 months without all the daily heartache!  

    Redundant/Craigs – No, I don't still like them short.  I still have a negative view on oil but I have made no oil calls since we cashed out the other day.  It's in a dangerous spot where it SHOULD be bouncy but I don't want to play the bounce but I also don't want to chase it after a 5% drop.

    TASR/Cdt – $11 now.  


  9. UNP/pwright – put in an order to buy a long Nov 97.5 / short Aug 100 diagonal..


  10. Oil /Phil- my bad. I thought you had said this morning that you liked oil short below 102. Then when you talked about the fake orders I thpought you were confirming that. Glad I asked then. 

    Also I am happy to be cashed out right now, especially my beloved Apple. Much easier to be sitting on all that cash on a day like today. I know you have answered this many times ( I just want to be sure I have it), but when you refer to the must hold and bounce lines, is it he futures or the actual index we are looking at? For example, the Russell needing to hold 1140, with a weak bounce to 1150 and strong to 1160. Futures or actual index (not a huge difference, but still probably important distinction)?


  11. scottmi re: UNP, what are you willing to pay for it?


  12. Hedging/Phil – I put on a considerable TZA hedge on Monday morning, 200 2015 12/19 spreads, offset by selling 100 $12 puts. The position is showing close to a $30,000 gain. (This is on a $1M+ portfolio), and has completely offset losses on the rest of my portfolio (and then some). I'm wondering at what point do I take profits, and move to something else?  This is my main portfolio hedge. 


  13. UNP – I put my order in at $3.06. it climbed right away from me but now back down closer.  still waiting for a fill. i'm not going to chase it.


  14. Good Morning!


  15. http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/08/us/north-carolina-family-shooting/index.html

     

    Phil/kids – It appears the NRA has it right…. :(


  16. anybody think the powers that be will have the market positive today?


  17. We have 2 hour corrections in this market.


  18. phil/TSLA, i have sold naked sept 200 calls for $18.  now $28 (i'm down $10).  never bought protective calls.  what would you suggest as a protective call or spread at this point.  the call had gone up almost to $45, but is back down now.


  19. Things turning around-coming back up. Big boyz aren't  going to let this correct big time  YET.  Let everyone come in a buy low first, then pull the rug out when they are ready. Same old stuff, different day.


  20. CMG is the hulk of this market right now.  Up 17.5 yesterday on a hold recommendation with a PT of 560 and up again today.


  21. Fresh horses/Phil – I want to take some of the profit from my TZA hedges that popped up today. what would be fresh horses to put on or roll into?


  22. XRT / Phil … closed XRT August puts on nice dip at the open for 47% profit in one week. That is 2,444% annualized :) … I am keeping my Sept put spread open to see if this drop continues …Thanks !!


  23. phil/ABX, it's had a pretty good run--i closed out some of my short $17 and $20 put positions as they were showing a nice profit.  wondering if that wise or do you think ABX is going to the high $20's.  thanks.


  24. I'm glad you asked too Craigs, we talk about a lot of different things, even on the same underlying asset so it can get a bit confusing.  If I do make a call on oil Futures, it will always have a specific /CL with it (unless I forget, but then ask!).  As to the lines, they apply, over the long-run, to the index charts but intraday, I watch the Futures and could care less what the index says as they tend to be laggy.  

    Boy, I love vegetable egg foo young for breakfast!  I never eat it for dinner but whenever Tina has it for dinner, I get the leftovers…

    This is a good time, by the way, to look at your portfolio and note how you are doing on a 1% market dip.  That's a great way to benchmark how balanced you are. 

    Our XRT shorts doing well at $86.  

     

    • Dow -1.03% to 16,811.50. S&P -0.96% to 1,953.90. Nasdaq -1.44% to 4,354.38.
    • Treasurys: 30-year +0.52%. 10-yr +0.34%. 5-yr +0.21%.
    • Commodities: Crude -0.25% to $102.04. Gold +1.37% to $1,342.50.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.25% vs. dollar. Yen -0.48%. Pound +0.24%.
    • When the going gets tough, the tough suspend trading. Portugal has halted trade in Banco Espirito Santo with the stock off 17.2% on the session and 54% over the last month. At issue are financial troubles for the bank's privately-owned holding company, Espirito Santo International. Its accounts are currently under review by an external auditor who has identified irregularities and concluded the company "is in serious financial condition."
    • Santander (SAN -5.8%), UBS (UBS -1.8%), Deutsche Bank (DB -3.1%), Bank of Ireland (IRE-5.6%), Credit Suisse (CS -2.8%), ING (ING -3.2%), BBVA (BBVA -3.1%). U.K. banks: Barclays (BCS -3.8%), RBS (RBS -1.9%), HSBC (HSBC -1.9%), Lloyds (LYG -2%).
    • European financial sector ETF: EUFN -2.4%.
    Maybe the "e" in those forward p/e numbers is BS?
     
    • Dow -0.91%.
    • 10-yr +0.38%.
    • Euro -0.27% vs. dollar.
    • Crude -0.09% to $102.20.
    • Gold +1.28% to $1,341.30.
    • Troubles in Portugal have sent the 10-year Treasury yield down to 2.5% - a six-week low even as jobless claims this morning dipped to their smallest level in about 7 years and the Fed begins a more serious discussion of an exit from ZIRP.
    • The U.S. 5-year yield is off 4.5 basis points to 1.63%.
    • The yield on Portuguese 10-year paper continues to rise, up another 11 basis points today to 3.91%, and a 2% decline across Europe has brought stocks there to a 2-month low.
    • TLT +0.6%, TBT -1.3%

     

    • The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 4.15% from 4.12% in the prior week, according to the latest weekly survey from Freddie Mac.
    • The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed to 3.24% in the latest week from 3.22%.
    • A year ago, the respective rates averaged 4.51% and 3.53%.

    • May Wholesale Trade: Inventories +0.5% to $532.7B  vs. consensus of +0.6%, +1% (revised) in April.
    • Sales +0.7% to $453.2B.
    • Inventory to Sales ratio at 1.18.
    • Japan's core machinery orders fell again in May, plunging 19.5%, and followed a continuing downward trend of April's 9.1% drop.
    • The recent falls suggest a further limit in capital spending, and triggered the Japan Cabinet Office to reduce its estimate on machinery orders.
    • Greece cuts the size of its 3-year note sale by about half to €1.5B after the auction attracted only €3B in orders amid concerns over Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo. A number of other bond deals were canceled today.
    • The yield, though, came in at 3.5% – the bottom end of the range guided by banks on the deal.
    • Greece's €3B sale of 5-year notes in April attracted €20B in orders.
    • Athens is lower by 2.9% today.
    • GREK -1.4%, NBG -5.8% premarket
    • Tensions are mounting in the Middle East, after Gaza militants fired new M-302 rockets deep into Israel, armed with a range of 93 miles. Israel has ramped up its air strike campaign as a result, targeting 486 militant positions including rocket-launching sites and military equipment and smuggling tunnels.
    • The newly acquired rockets put about two thirds of Israel's 8M people into Gaza's range of fire, increasing pressure to neutralize any threats.
    • ETFs: EISISRA
    • The results of Indonesia's presidential election will remain uncertain for at least ten days, as 130M votes still need to be hand-counted across more than 6,000 inhabited islands.
    • Presidential candidates Widodo and Subianto have both claimed victory in preliminary tallies.
    • Indonesian stocks soared as much as 2.8% in early trading after foreign investors bought $263M worth of stock – nearly four times the daily average of foreign buying. The rupiah also gained, hitting a two-month high against the dollar.
    • ETFs: IDXEIDOIDXJ
    • BNP Paribas (BNPQF) has pleaded guilty to evading U.S. sanctions for the second time, admitting it had also violated the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the Trading with the Enemy Act.
    • The bank previously agreed to a record $8.9B settlement on July 1, after pleading guilty to charges of falsifying business records and conspiracy.
    • Commerzbank (CRZBFCRZBY) is now expected to pay between a $600-$800M settlement for its money transfer operations which evaded U.S. sanctions, CNBC reports. The bank is accused of transferring money on behalf of companies in Iran and Sudan.
    • It was previously reported that the bank would have to pay more than $500M.
    • Over the past five years, American authorities have found more than half a dozen foreign banks guilty of sanctions violations.
    • The U.S. is still probing UniCredit (UNCFF), Credit Agricole (CRARY), Societe Generale (SCGLF), and Deutsche Bank (DB).

     

    • Eric Holder says he will not meet with BofA (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan to discuss a settlement over the bank's mortgage lawsuit with the Justice Department, Reuters reports. The Attorney General states that the "parties remain too far apart for a meeting to be productive."
    • In prior negotiations over the shoddy mortgage selling lawsuit, BofA discussed paying $12B to resolve the claims, although the Justice Department countered with a $17B settlement .
    • JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon previously cut a $13B deal with Holder regarding his bank's involvement with its mortgage selling before the financial crisis, and BofA was seeking a similar negotiation.
    • The bank last March originally received Fed permission to boost its quarterly payout from $0.01 to $0.05 (along with a $4B buyback), but was forced to withdraw that plan after discovering it miscalculated capital levels.
    • Bank of America (BAC) subsequently fixed the accounting issue and resubmitted a capital plan in May, and the WSJ reports the lender is requesting the same size dividend, though the buyback plan has been toned down.
    • For the bank – which has made boosting the dividend a top priority – the move projects to the Fed a sign of strength and that there are no more accounting cockroaches out there. For the Fed, its decision will establish a precedent for how these errors might be dealt with in the future.
    • All this is happening as pressure mounts for BofA to come to a settlement with the DOJ over mortgages, and word is Eric Holder has no interest in talking turkey with Brian Moynihan until their lieutenants get a lot closer to a final deal.
    • Shares -1.6% premarket as S&P 500 futures tumble
    • Working today as both stock and bond yields fall in response to banking troubles in Portugal are both equity and mortgage REIT names.
    • Leading in the mortgage REIT sector are Annaly (NLY +0.8%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.8%), and a sampling of equity REIT names: Realty Income (O +0.6%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +1%), Ventas (VTR +1.2%), Medical Properties (MPW +1%), Avalon Bay (AVB+0.5%), Simon Property (SPG +0.8%), Boston Properties (BXP +0.8%)
    • ETFs: IYRVNQDRNURESRSICFRWRSCHHDRVKBWYREKFRIFTYPSR,FNIOWREIREMMORLMORT
    • A Cnooc (CEO) subsidiary signs a ~$1.6B deal to build equipment for the Yamal liquefied natural gas project in the Russian Arctic.
    • Russian gas producer Novatek is developing the $27B project with Total (TOT) and Sinopec (SNP); the first production unit, with annual capacity of 5.5M metric tons, is due to be launched in 2017.
    • Enbridge (ENB -0.5%) says it is in talks with Alaska about building a pipeline to ship natural gas from the North Slope, describing the project as a potential alternative to an Alaskan pipeline project backed by rival TransCanada (TRP -0.6%).
    • The proposed $7.7B project would carry ~500M cf/day of gas from Prudhoe Bay to Point MacKenzie, with a spur line to Fairbanks, and aim to start up by late 2020; it would mostly serve to offset declining gas production from the Cook Inlet.
    • Alaska is weighing the project as a backup if a competing proposal from TRP fails to move ahead.
    • A North Dakota pipeline owned by a subsidiary of Crestwood Midstream Partners (CMLP) hasleaked ~1M gallons of saltwater, some of it into a bay that leads to a lake that provides drinking water for an American Indian reservation.
    • Tribal and company officials say the leak has been isolated and drinking water is unaffected; it isn't known how much of the saltwater spilled into the bay.
    • The company says the leak likely started over the holiday weekend but was not discovered until Tuesday; the pipeline is not equipped with a system that sends an alert when there is a leak.
    • Seadrill (SDRL) says it has received commitments for a $1.35B credit facility to refinance the credit facilities secured by the West Pegasus, West Gemini and West Orion.
    • SDRL says the transaction initially was launched as a $900M facility secured by two ultra-deepwater units, but the facility was upsized to $1.35B by including an additional ultra-deepwater unit due to strong interest from the banking group.
    • SDRL says the refinancing will provide $350M in additional cash.
    • SDRL -1.4% premarket.
    • Portugal's 4% decline today brings its 7-day dive to 11% as the parent of Banco Espirito Santo reportedly is considering bankruptcy protection. Banco Espirito is off 17% today and more than 50% over the last month.
    • Spain's IBEX 35 is down 2.4% and Italy's FTSE MIB is lower by 2%.
    • Gold is higher by 1.5% to $1,344 per ounce and silver by 2.4% to $21.58.
    • In other news, India disappointed gold bulls by leaving in place recent increases in gold import taxes in its just-released annual budget. The previous government over the last two years had boosted the import tax to 10% from 2% and mandated that 20% of imports had to be re-exported.
    • GLD +1.1%, SLV +1.9%
    • Mechel (MTL -6%) may be allowed to declare bankruptcy to sort out its finances, Russia's industry minister says, suggesting for the first time that the company might not be bailed out.
    • While the comments could signal a change in policy, the final decision on what to do with MTL almost certainly will rest with Pres. Putin.
    • Hit by weak prices for its products, MTL is $8.6B in debt and already has undergone several debt restructurings with creditor banks.
    • Boeing (BA) expects global plane demand to rise exponentially in the next two decades, stating that the world will need ~37k new jets worth $5.2T by 2033. The new estimate is up 4.2% from the company's 2013 forecast.
    • The aircraft-maker also expects to beat Airbus (EADSF) in the "twin-aisle plane" market during the next 20 years. Boeing's 787 and 777X jets are already supplying 65% of all current orders, as Airbus lags behind taking the other 35%.
    • "If Airbus doesn't do something with their product strategy, they're headed to 30-35% market share in deliveries of next-generation twin-aisle aircraft," says Boeing VP of Marketing Randy Tinseth.
    • Airbus is still debating whether to revamp its aging A330 into a new cost efficient and updated jet called the A330neo.
    • BA +0.3% AH
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) states industry investment of $170M over the next two years will result in $1.8B in savings for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, cutting the cost of each fighter jet by about $10M to about $80M.
    • The announcement comes after the Pentagon's release of the "Blueprint for Affordability" project, stating that Lockheed and two main subcontractors, Northrop Grumman (NOC) and BAE Systems (BAESY), will only recover their investment and any profit if cost reductions to the jet were made.
    • There is still no word if the F-35 will be making its debut at two international air shows tomorrow and next week in the U.K.
    • It's been a rough week for retail IPO stocks with both Potbelly (PBPB) and The Container Store(TCS) getting hammered off of disappointing earnings reports.
    • Analysts think the pressure to grow store/restaurant count can be a risk to companies going public in a tight consumer spending market.
    • If they are right, Noodles (NDLS) and Papa Murphy's (FRSH) could face the same growing pains.
    • Though Costco (COST) just mildly beat estimates with its report on comparable-store sales for June, the 6.3% gain is impressing retail watchers.
    • Stephanie Link notes on a two-year comparison, Costco's U.S. comp is +12% and the international comp +16%.
    • COST -0.2% premarket
    • Family Dollar Stores (FDO): FQ3 EPS of $0.85 misses by $0.04.
    • Revenue of $2.66B (+3.5% Y/Y) beats by $50M.
    • Family Dollar (FDO) reports comparable-store sales fell 1.8% in FQ3.
    • The company says it saw strong demand in its refrigerated/frozen food and tobacco categories.
    • Gross profit rate -40 bps to 34.3%.
    • Inventory +2.2% to $912.3M.
    • Family Dollar expects Q4 EPS of $0.75-$0.85 vs. $0.78 consensus.
    • Family Dollar (FDO) says it plans to close 370 under-performing stores by the end of this fiscal year.
    • In FY14, the company will expand its space committed to coolers.
    • A multi-year rollout of beer and wine products is also on tap.
    • FDO -0.5% premarket
    As I always say, it's just the Fondue Pot of the decade:  More downward pressure on SodaStream
    • SodaStream (SODA -2.5%) trades lower after JPMorgan cuts estimates on the company.
    • Shares briefly dipped below $30 for the first time this year.
    • What to watch: It's almost inevitable that speculation on a buyout of SodaStream by a larger beverage company (PepsiCo, Coca-Cola. Dr. Pepper Snapple. Starbucks) will start making the rounds again, although plenty of traders caution on catching the falling knife.
    • International Game Technology (IGT) will receive a $4B offer from lottery operator GTech, according to Italian publication La Repubblica.
    • The company's market cap currently stands at $3.73B.
    • IGT +3.9% premarket
    Speaking of Fondue Pots:  GoPro -4.3% following Sell rating
    • Independent research firm Vertical Group has assigned a Sell rating to GoPro (GPRO).
    • IPO underwriters aren't yet able to launch coverage. Dougherty, which started coverage with a Buy and $28 PT prior to GoPro's IPO, made some cautious remarks last week. "[GoPro has] a valuation that frankly I'm not sure we've seen for consumer electronics in a very long time. The ceiling to me would maybe be Garmin in 2007."
    • Shares are underperforming amid a broader equity selloff. They're still up 73% from their $24 IPO price.
    One of the first IPOs I ever bought:  Cray +15% on $174M supercomputer deal
    • The U.S. National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) has awarded CRAY a $174M deal to provide an XC30 supercomputer with an accompanying Sonexion storage system.
    • The system, called Trinity, will simulate nuclear tests (among other things). It's expected to have over 8x as much computing power as a Cray XE6 system (called Cielo) currently used by the NNSA.
    • "Substantial system acceptances" are expected to occur in late-2015 and 2016. Rival SGIrecently won a supercomputer deal wit the U.K.'s Atomic Weapons Establishment.
    • 15% of Cray's float was shorted as of June 13.
    • Aereo filed a letter yesterday with the New York district court in which it argued that it should now be considered a cable company due to the recent SCOTUS ruling.
    • The development is nearly a complete reversal from the way Aereo has presented itself in the past.
    • What to watch: If Aereo is classified as a cable provider it could obtain a license and be offered the same protections as other operators in an attempt to carve out a niche. That plan could also be costly in legal fees and take funding from IAC/InterActive (IACI) or another source to make it a reality.
    • Following the new regulation requiring America Movil (AMX) to lower its market share by less than 50%, the company is now looking to sell 15-17% of its assets.
    • America Movil is looking to divest the assets as soon as possible and hopefully to a single buyer, says company spokesman Arturo Elias.
    • Industry experts say the assets can be worth worth well over $10B, although the telecommunications giant has not yet announced a price.
    • Samsung (SSNLFSSNGY) is facing new child labor accusations at its Shinyang supplier factory in China.
    • The allegations were made by the New York-based China Labor Watch after finding several cases of underage workers at the facility. The factory seems to employ children and underage students during busy seasons, generally hiring them for three to six months.
    • Google (GOOG) is forming a European venture capital operation to scout out ideas and technology produced by the continent’s emerging start-ups.
    • "As we look out around the world, we realize that the tech ecosystems are getting bigger and stronger," says SVP of Corporate Development David Drummond. "Nowhere is this more true than in Europe. Every European capital I travel to I see these start up clusters. Its obvious that great companies will come out of these ecosystems."
    • The new $100M fund will operate from Clerkenwell in London, near the "Silicon Roundabout" area that is home to hundreds of tech start-ups.

  25. scottmi re: UNP: noted, makes sense.  I'm still in a holding pattern on it; I'm thinking we may get some opportunities coming up during earnings season, keeping some cash on the side.  I am wondering if maybe the earnings will be reasonably good in many cases, (not only UNP but generally), but also the market will be less forgiving.  I've started to become a bit paranoid about the, uh, international security environment.  America looks like a weak actor internationally; Russia can just annex Crimea, Middle East is a mess in so many ways.  China is in need of some distraction from slowing economy and major structural changes, if there was a time for some direct belligerence about South China Sea islands, Taiwan, something like that, possibly it would be soon?  Also there seems to be a bit more of a difficult or confrontational tone from Chinese leadership, this is also true of some of the people I do business with there, etc.  At any rate, one thing I know for sure is, just because I wake up in the middle of the night thinking about it, doesn't mean it's real :)   (But then again, just because you're paranoid, don't mean they're not after you!)

    Wishing I had a hedge on like palotay did, but then again, I've lost so much on decay waiting for hedges to develop, I can't figure out whether I'd be ahead of the game or behind it, even if I had gains on hedges today.  Probably what Phil says is right, I should take just the amount of insurance I need for size of my account, and no more. 


  26. Anyone read the 0-Hedge stories on CYNK? This crazy thing is up another 30% today. 100% sure it's 50/50 human insanity and runaway algo-traders on crack. I'm sure it will all end well. Only wish there were options on it we could sell.


  27. The advanced seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment claims for the week ending Jul 5 were down 11,000 w/w to 304,000.   Sounds good!   But the actual initial claims, unadjusted, were 322,248, up 16,542 (or +5.4 percent) from the previous week.   Let's not quibble over the numbers and just go with the happy report… yahoo!


  28. TZA/Palotay – Sorry it's 10 points late but of course take the profits.  You KNOW how to set up another hedge if 1,140 breaks but we also KNOW there's an 80-90% chance that we'll get at least a 1% bounce (weak) off that line (the 5% drop) so why wouldn't you take the $30,000 profit, rather than almost automatically giving up $6,000 of it and possibly $12,000 on a strong bounce?  The main reason for the hedges is to protect us while the market is closed – when it's open, there are dozens of ways we can cover a move as it happens.  

    Shooting/1020 – 11 years old?  That's sick!  

    Positive/Rustle – I think we're selling off on a day we have a 30-year note auction, as usual and then, after the auction, they already scheduled George to speak on Monetary Policy and she can spin it back to doveish and up we go.  I'm just going to be looking for the same weak and strong bounce lines we had yesterday and, of course, whether any of this has a volume pattern that matters.  

    TSLA/Lunar – I think we did that as part of a spread, naked is kind of crazy but I still like the target too much to pay $10 premium to get out of it.  If you can get out even or with a small loss into earnings (early Aug), I'd do that and, if not, you can always roll the loss to a higher strike (Sept $240s are more than $10 and they can be rolled to the Jan $280s and, if you are worried about short Jan $280s – why the Hell are you shorting TSLA in the first place?) and pick up some cushion.  

    This is a trick, by the way – a big spike down on no volume and then a move back to where we were at the close fools the retail suckers into thinking we're bouncing.   That happened almost every day on the way to a 60% drop in 2008.

    BA/Scott – Stop it, I'm trying to be patient!  

    Pulling the rug/Pirate – Rule of thumb is you have to burn the dip buyers 3 times before they get the message.  

    CMG/Rustle – What a monster!  

    Fresh Horse/Scott – At the moment, the Dow has fallen the least in 5 days.  I use this chart to get a quick view.  Easy to see why the RUT is so bouncy as it's the tugboat that went most off course:

    XRT/DM – Great use of time layering – congrats!  

    ABX/Lunar – I like ABX as a permanent part of the portfolio but, as a trade, I think $20 is a good place to take some profits.  You never know when gold will go wild and ABX is a super-leveraged way to play gold (and therefore a nice hedge against cash). 

    Hedges/Pwright – Yes and don't forget it's not about making money on a 1% drop like today, the hedges are really there to protect you from waking up to a 9/11 or flash crash 10% drop.  Outside of that, it's generally just insurance money and, if you can break even on insurance, even though you never needed it - that's fantastic! 

    CYNK/Allan – It's giving me 1999 flash-backs. 

    RUT running into resistance as it gets towards the strong bounce line at 1,160 (on Futures, Index is already over).  Other moves are now:

    • Dow 17,050 to 16,800 is 250 in 3 days so you need to make a strong bounce in 1.5 days in order to have a chance at a V recovery.  Bounces would be 50 points so 16,850 and 16,900 are what we'll watch.  
    • S&P 1,985 to 1,955 is 30 points so 6-point bounces to 1,961 and 1,967 will be our targets. 
    • Nasdaq 4,485 to 4,360 (now I'm rounding) is 125 so 25-point bounces to 4,385 and 4,410.
    • NYSE 11,100 to 10,900 is 200 points so 40-point bounces to 10,940 and 10,980.
    • Russell 1,208 to 1,140 is 68 points and we'll call that 14-point bounces for 1,155 (rounding) and 1,170

    There – see how easy it is to step back and take a more rational view of the "recovery" when we keep track like this.  We're essentially in the same fake bounce pattern that we were ignoring yesterday morning – only now it's from a lower level and the bounce SEEM bigger but that's because the drops were bigger.  

    Unemployment/Sibe – I don't think 5% up or down matters anyway, that's why I almost never even mention unemployment.  300,000 is "normal" turnover for 150M workers (0.2% week = 10% annual), which means anything between 275,000 and 325,000 is a nothing number.


  29. Oops, meant to include chart:


  30. I think, on the whole we should give a strong weighting today to the weak bounce lines since we are doing it today in the face of a "crisis" in Portugal.  A weak move on a bad event is as good as a strong move on no news and a strong move on good news is only as good as a weak move on no news – get it?  



  31. UAL/qcmike – well so much for the technical short on these guys! what a ridiculous move. More bots-gone-wild?




  32. I'm locking in profits today and getting out of some short puts that are near even.  Maybe the June Gloom will run into July….  


  33. ‘Rotten rotation’ could signal bull market living on borrowed time.

    It's Beyond A Bubble: Median LBO Multiple Soars To Mindblowing 11.6x

    U.S.-based stock fund outflows biggest since start of 2013 -ICI

    Companies Selling Stocks at Record Pace This YearOfferings of Stock and Similar Securities Have Raised $510 Billion in 2014 Around the World. Companies world-wide are selling stocks at a record pace, capitalizing on investors' appetite for riskier assets at a time of low returns on safer bets. Offerings of stock and stock-linked securities have raised $510.1 billion in 2014 through Tuesday, according to data provider Dealogic. That beats out the previous record for that time period, $498.9 billion in 2007. While many deals still originate with growing companies… ?

    Keeping watch for the next subprime timebombFears are growing of another subprime crisis, but this time it won’t be because of mortgage-backed securities. Rather, junk bonds and high-risk government debt might be the culprits.

    Wall Street Clashes Over Emerging-Market Bonds as UBS Says Sell. Strategists at UBS AG (UBSN)’s wealth management unit turned bearish on U.S. dollar debt of developing nations on June 26. Investors have grown hungrier for higher-yielding assets in far-flung parts of the world, even if they’re more volatile, as yields on junk bonds have fallen to new lows.

     

    Japocalypse Now – Machine Orders Crater 19.5%, Biggest Monthly Drop On Record

    BOJ may cut this fiscal year's growth forecast -sourcesThe Bank of Japan may slightly cut its economic forecast for the current fiscal year at a quarterly review of its estimates next week, sources familiar with its thinking said, reflecting soft exports and a bigger-than-expected slump in household spending after a sales tax hike in April.

     

    Teens Are Having the Worst Summer for Jobs Since 2010

    When do they not?  OPEC Sees Rising Global Oil Demand

    For Retailers, Spring Isn't Enough

    American retailers may have more than a weather problem. For many stores, customer traffic has slowed and sales weakened in the spring, when warmer temperatures had been expected to help business. 10:49 AM

    A Retailer That's Closely Tied To The Housing Market Is Crashing After A Profit Warning Due To The Economy

    The Container Store(TCS) CEO Gives A Shocking Warning About The State Of The Consumer

    PC sales record slight world-wide growthGartner results show two years of declining shipments coming to an end — but just barely.

    Apple Wins EU Trademark on Stores

    ISIS Has Seized 88 Pounds Of Uranium In Northern Iraq

    Game Theory Secrets for Parents


  34. Seems like a good idea reading the above news, Burr. 


  35. Phil // perhaps you've Mentioned this before in the thread if so I apologize. I have a number of hedges, both short-term and long-term. Short-term TZA and SQQQ, both of which are way up this morning. Long-term I have DXD and TNA which I don't plan on touching

    I understand Palotays situation on the bounce (lucky dog), but would you recommend cashing the cheesy 80s and the S QQQ's now on the bounce?. 

    Thanks in advance, this is one of the things I'm really not good at. Taking profits when I need to


  36. Um, the 'cheezy 80's was code for TZAs ;)


  37. Someone just interviewed me about my "brilliant" June 30th call.  Was a pretty good article, actually:

    Monday Misgivings – CASH!!! Is King as we Begin Q3

    Hedges/Wombat – Short-term hedges are meant to be taken off the table when they make short-term profits – why get greedy after a trade works out.  We had a 5% drop on TZA, it should be a REFLEX to take that off the table.  5% moves are all we should even expect in one chunk.  You can always put the profits into a longer-term play but why risk losing on the retrace and possibly never seeing those highs again?

    Rule #1 – ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement.  

    Rule #2 – When in doubt, sell half.

    Rule #3 – If you are too much of a dumb-ass to have followed Rule #1 or Rule #2 – why the hell are you coming to me for advice now?  


  38. MSFT – Nadella shares new plan:

    http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/ceo/index.html

    and this is pretty cool.. I can't wait for all this and more:

    "…today the Cortana app on my Windows Phone merges data from highway sensors and my own calendar and simply reminds me to leave work to make it to my daughter's recital on time. In the future, it will be even more intelligent as a personal assistant who takes notes, books meetings and understands if my question about the weather is to determine my clothes for the day or is intended to start a complex task like booking a family vacation…"


  39. Phil – Despite pullback, some stocks still going strong today in the face of the market.. ADM, BAX, UAL… what to make of this?


  40. QQQ filled the gap already….


  41. MSFT/Scott – Any plan is an improvement for those guys.  

    Despite/Scott – As I said earlier, the S&P is just an indicator, individual stocks will always outperform or underperform based on merits.  BAX, for example, just did a nice acquisition – so people are happy.  Doesn't mean much.

    /TF Futures with a very exact rejection at 1,160 so far.  /ES can't get over 1,960 – we can watch those very closely along with good old 16,850 on the Dow as 2 of 3 to give us bullish signals if over (and we can go long on the laggard).  

    VIX already back to 12.29 – no worries.  TLT topped out just under 114 in time for the 30-year auction – what a coincidence, right?  

    June 12th, May 8th were the last two auctions both let to $2 corrections on TLT so I'd say the July $115 puts at $2 with a .13 premium (at $113.13) has an excellent chance of paying 20-50%. 


  42. premiums are funny today, I'm showing a big loss on SGEN and SWI longs even though they've both now rallied..


  43. QQQ/Invest – Strong bounce on fall from $95.50 to $94 is .60 so $94.60 means we'e just over and then $93.75 is Fib 50% and over that gives us a clear shot back to $95.20 – if you want to play such small numbers:

    OK, this is 100% of our debt for the past 18 months bought by the Fed – what does happen when they stop?
    Source: WSJ
     
    • Dow -0.49%.
    • 10-yr +0.25%.
    • Euro -0.32% vs. dollar.
    • Crude +0.05% to $102.34.
    • Gold +1.06% to $1,338.30.
    • Down more than 2% at the session low, the Stoxx 50 (FEZ) closed with a loss of 1.6%. Spain and Italy were each off about 2%, while Germany (EWG) lost 1.5%, France (EWQ) 1.3%, and the U.K. 0.7%. Portugal's PSI 20 Index dove 4.2%, led by Banco Espirito Santo's 17.2% loss (it was halted from trade before the market close).
    • Previously: European banks tumble on Portugal trouble
    • ETFs: VGKFEZIEVHEDJEPVEZUFEUFEPUPVADRUFEEUEURLEURZDBEU,IEURFIEU
    • With Europe closed, the U.S. is in rally mode, with an early 1% loss in the major averages now whittled down to a negligible amount.
    CBI to the rescue!  India pledges 8% growth
    • India's new government has pledged to bring back economic growth to 7-8% within the next three years – improving living standards and boosting job growth. Last year's economic growth was about 4.6%.
    • The new administration is not planning any serious overhauls or structural reforms, but rather is looking to "tinker" with existing policies by enhancing its foreign investment, reducing subsidies and improving the country's tax system.
    • Molycorp (MCP -8.5%) extends its descent into all-time lows, a day after reports that Apollo Global Management is adding to its MCP bond holdings, which would position the investment firm to take control of MCP in the event the company sought to restructure its $1.5B in debt.
    • Shares enjoyed a momentary bump after D.A. Davidson came out positive on the company, saying after meeting with management it remains optimistic that MCP's production rates are improving; it has a Buy rating on the stock with a $7 price target.
    • Key, says Cowen, is hotel room demand likely to continue growing faster than supply, especially in the major gateway coastal markets, setting the state for "an extended period of pricing flexibility and enhanced growth … [and] incomparable hotel EBITDA."
    • “Absent the impact of acquisitions or dispositions, that would produce growth in comparable hotel EBITDA of between 7% and 9% next year,” compared to NOI growth of 3% for the rest of the REIT sector. Their favorites are Host Hotels (HST +0.9%), LaSalle Hotels (LHO -0.1%), and Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB +0.1%).
    • “With Q2 RevPAR tracking materially above guidance and our prior estimates, we are raising our Q2 estimates, virtually across the board," says the team at MLV. The stocks to own into earnings season are not just those who will beat expectations, but those who will raise guidance as well. Their favorites are those with the fastest internal growth – DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH -0.1%), Host Hotels (HST +0.9%), Strategic Hotels (BEE +0.8%), and RLJ Lodging (RLJ) – along with those trading at material valuation discounts: Summit Hotel Properties (INN +0.1%), Hersha Hospitality (HT -0.4%), and Ashford Hospitality (AHT +0.6%).

     

    Foreigners are buying US real estate at a staggering rate — and it’s rising fast (Vox)

    • The reads from major retailers on the spending habits of U.S. consumers varies widely with Wal-Mart and Family Dollar warning on the low-end, while pockets of strength have been seen at department stores, some specialty retailers, and out-performers such as Costco, Kroger, and Starbucks.
    • The high level of spending on automobiles and big-ticket items has squeezed out some discretionary spending, say analysts
    • If there's one development that nearly all retailers agree on, it's that store traffic is lower as online and mobile take market share and consumers pivot toward a paradigm of efficient shopping trips from mall browsing.
    • CYNK Technology (CYNK +39.5%), ostensibly a social networking site owner, has skyrocketed on the pink sheets. Shares were only worth $0.10 as of mid-June; they're now above $20.
    • close look at CYNK shows many hallmarks of a traditional pump-and-dump scheme. The company doesn't have any revenue, assets, or full-time employees, and its site – IntroBiz.com, declared by CYNK  to be a "social marketplace" for connecting with celebrities – hardly evokes comparisons to Facebook or Twitter.
    • SA author Weighing Machine raised plenty of red flags in a column last month. The SEC won't confirm or deny it's investigating.
    • "We will deliver digital work and life experiences that are reinvented for the mobile-first and cloud-first world," says Satya Nadella (MSFT - unchanged) in a lengthy memo. "We will reinvent productivity for people who are swimming in a growing sea of devices, apps, data and social networks."
    • Nadella suggests major strategic and cultural changes will be part of the package. "Organizations will change. Mergers and acquisitions will occur. Job responsibilities will evolve. New partnerships will be formed. Tired traditions will be questioned." That last line might be a shot at some of the criticized practices of the Steve Ballmer era.
    • Nadella adds Microsoft will "streamline [its] engineering process and reduce the amount of time and energy it takes to get things done." He promises engineers "will see fewer people get involved in decisions and more emphasis on accountability."
    • At the same time, Nadella affirms Microsoft's commitment to the Xbox, and argues technologies developed by the Xbox unit have strengthened Windows, Skype, and other products.
    • Microsoft has already shown a greater willingness to support rival platforms since Nadella became CEO in February, and has also shaken up its executive ranks. A massive reorg meant to strengthen cross-product collaboration was launched a year ago.

    7 papers, 4 government inquiries, 2 news investigations, and 1 court ruling proving voter fraud is mostly a myth (Wonkblog)


  44. I was half joking when I said the powers that be will have us up today, should've bought dia calls.


  45. Hey Phil,

    Let's go under the assumption we have a correlation with Europe…  Mgiht you expect a rally tomorrow and a potential play for it?


  46. Phil / Repeat
    from a previous post
    DBA – been holding as an inflation hedge. Since we think hyperinflation is the only method of stabilization – wouldn't this still be the case regardless of corn reports etc. ?

    also, why the hell is /CL up ?


  47. Calls/Rustle – I'm more concerned with where we finish the week now.

    Oil snuck up to $103, now we can start considering the re-short – especially if they spike up at 2:35 (NYMEX close).  

    Europe/JPH – Do you mean play Europe for a bounce?  They already strong bounced off their lows so we're following them at the moment.  As with everything, I'm not too interested in making calls until we see some earnings data.  

    DBA/Wombat – Long-term yes, I still like DBA but we got out because it was obviously going to correct and you now have corn, wheat and coffee getting cheap at the same time – not a good mix to stay in.  I'll be calling to get back in around $25 so, if you waited this long, not much reason to get out now.  

    Oil is up I think because of Israel.  Doesn't matter – any excuse will do after that drop.  Don't forget, $103 is a weak bounce off a $5 drop – this was the least we expected.  


  48. :P HIL/TZA

    I am long 20 aug 14 calls which have doubled. Do you recommend a roll?


  49. Phil — I see somehow a funny face was added to my last comment.


  50. TZA/Zten – Well, I would have said take them off the table of course at 1,140.  Now, at 1,160 – I'd wait and see how this shakes out but I'd certainly set a stop at this point.  


  51. Phil/TASR

    I have the following in my paper account

    Long Jan 16 13C @3.7 (now 1.8)

    Short Jan 16 13P @2.95 (now 3.28)

    I think I missed the adjustment done to this earlier. But I have this position and want to understand how would you best handle it even if it is "doing nothing"

    Thank you as always.


  52. TASR/Pat – Hopefully they have found a bottom at $11.  There's not much to do, you sold the $13 puts for $3 so net $10 and you're fine there for now and then the issue is the long calls and you can spend about $1 to roll down to the $10s and I guess I would do that and then get the $1 back by selling the $15s (now $1.30) if TASR does go lower, to pay for the eventual roll to the $5s.  

    As a new play on TASR, I'm warming up to the short 2016 $13 puts at $3.25, buying the $10/17 bull call spread for net $2 for a $1.25 credit on the $7 spread and worst case is we own 1x of TASR for net $11.75.  Figure doing 10 of those is nothing as our obligation is $11,750 of TASR and, even if they went to $5, we could buy 2,000 more for $10,000 and average $7.25 on 3,000 – no big crisis.  The upside is $8,250 on $2,500 in margin – very efficient.  

    OK, I talked myself into it!  Let's add 10 of these to the LTP and Income Portfolios! 


  53. phil – i am agnostic toward soccer (metric football) — but i might have to reconsider upon reading this. 

    poor guy..

    https://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/javier-mascherano-says-he-tore-his-anus-during-semifinal-against-netherlands-154255457-soccer.html


  54. 1. Texas Governor Rick Perry: The Right of Hand-Shake Refusal

    Though the White House invited Governor Perry to greet the President at the Houston Airport on Wednesday, Perry, refused. Why? Well, Rick may be a southern gentleman, but, as anyone who has ever heard him speak knows, the wonkish Perry prefers policy discussions and serious debate over small chat and niceties. Or, as Perry explained in a letter to the president,

    I appreciate the offer to greet you at Austin-Bergstrom Airport, but a quick handshake on the tarmac will not allow for a thoughtful discussion regarding the humanitarian and national security crises enveloping the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas. I would instead offer to meet with you at any time during your visit to Texas for a substantive meeting to discuss this critical issue.

    Perry is so committed to “substantive” immigration talks, that, with sufficient advance warning, he would be willing to re-arrange his busy schedule of jogging, killing Coyotes and executing innocent people to meet with the President of the United States: “With the appropriate notice, I am willing to change my schedule to facilitate this request.”


  55. Actually, there is a whole good article about Republican idiocy – fun reading.  

    Poll: Most Americans Want to Hear Less From Palin - More than half – 52% — of people surveyed said the former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, who was recently seen calling for PresidentBarack Obama’s impeachment in a Breitbart News column, should just “be quiet.”


  56. I actually have the tasr spread mentioned above from Pat-Do you suggest this spread with the old spread, or a replacement.  All down over 50% except the 20c 16X that I sold. I would've normally adjusted, taken profits etc, but you said patience.


  57. Perry/Phil – Bravo for him! photo-ops and genuflecting to our American 'royalty' is way to prevalent, imho. In fact, I don't think there is anything I resent more than a whole town getting stuck in traffic for HOURS when one of our "public servants" (of any party) drives through town with motorcade for a fund-raiser…


  58. UAL – wow! very impressive today. even closed the gap.


  59. LOL Toe – You don't get those in the wimpy NFL!  

    TASR/Pirate – There's no rush to adjust but, if down 50% of a smallish amount, I'd rather have 2x of the new spread.  I'm baffled by TASR's sell-off.  30% in the last week on no particular news is really strange.  Anyway, if you have, for example, $10,000 that's down to $5,000 with a break-even at $15, why not move to $5,000 in margin (20) on the new spread that breaks even at $11.75 and makes your money back at $12.50 and all profit from there on up?  

    Perry/Scott – I think you're really missing the point.  If Perry wants to meet with the President of the United States as he happens to be passing through Texas, rather than throw a temper tantrum he could easily ask for 15 minutes on Air Force One – I'm sure that wouldn't be too uncomfortable for him.  Let's say Rick Perry is 4x more important than the average governor and 8x more important than the average senator (by population represented) and 30x more important than a Representative but about equally important to the top 50 foreign leaders Obama has to meet with and certainly less important than Cabinet Members.  

    So that's about net 12 governors and 12 senators and 12 representatives (because we used population to even things out) and 50 foreign leaders and call it 25 Cabinet people (by weighting) and then there's the military, that trumps all.  That's well over 100 people Obama has to meet with on a regular basis in addition to trying to get his job of running the country done.  What exactly does Perry have going on that's more important?  

    CNBC so excited that the markets are only down about 0.4%, victory snatched from the jaws of defeat – despite those jaws still managing to chew off a foot or two…

    Oil touched $103 on the button and that is a short on /CL with VERY tight stops.  Hopefully back to $102.50.  


  60. Palin/Phil….it's not just repubs – I dropped my paid subscription to salon.com, something I'd read and subscribed to for a number of years, about three years ago because of their unceasing Palin coverage. I told them the reason before dropping.


  61. If Perry we to run again as governor of Texas I sincerely don't think he could be re-elected.  His popularity has fallen considerably here.   Perry is just a sleazy dirtbag with nice hair and a new pair of glasses.  He is seriously thinking of running for President again so all of this with Obama is just pandering to the dolts, trolls and misfits in the teaparty.


  62. @jr_mints

    Forget Governor, he's gunning for President again.


  63. Perry is good for a laugh-I'll never forget his debate when he couldn't remember the 4 branches of the govmint he would abolish-what a hoot!



  64. He's right along with Palin who knew about Russia "because you could see it from Alaska." Right next store. Love a good laugh.


  65. TOS having big system-wide margin calc issues..  they are working on it.


  66. Perry – LOL!  I guess y'all can see why I have such a low opinion of all those thar varmints.. ;-)


  67. Irony…

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/brookings-anti-obamacare-ads-enrollment

    The millions of dollars being spent in televisions ads that criticize Obamacare might have actually backfired and led to increased enrollment under the health care reform law, according to a study published Wednesday by the Brookings Institution.

    Brookings fellow Niam Yaraghi observed "a positive association between the anti-ACA spending and ACA enrollment." Spending on negative Obamacare ads has outpaced spending on positive ads 15 to 1, according to media research. In Senate races where Democrats are running for re-election, which have been the major targets for anti-Obamacare ads, Yaraghi detected a spike in enrollment.


  68. @rustle

    Several years ago Kinky Friedman ran against Perry for governor, his campaign slogan was "Rick Perry…..how hard can it be?


  69. Palin/Snow – Fortunately, I'm not a regular reader of the things that cover her like a rock star.  

    Perry/Diamond – So he reneged already?  Wow, I guess his original snub didn't poll well?  

    Obamacare/StJ – LOL, like they say in the PR business – "As long as they spell our name right…" 

    Prisoner/Burr – Wow, he get the WSJ and a nice workspace – maybe I should cross someone off my list and head off to jail too!  I like this comment, the guy could work at GS:

     “I go where the money goes — it’s always been that way,” he says. And the money for him, these days, is in stocks.

    OK – so officially we're finished at 16,915, 1,964, 4,396, 10,941 and 1,161 - almost total failure of the strong bounces but all above weak except NYSE so we'll give them another day to prove themselves. 

    Oil $102.86 at the close, good for $140, nothing to cry about.  

    LOL Jr, is that true?  


  70. Still laughing-still hysterical!


  71. What a bounce. Glad that I muted Bloomberg tv. I stayed calm while waiting a little bit to see the market unfolded cards. Otherwise, I would be cooked if I was being a panic bear…


  72. These are truly good news:

    http://kff.org/medicare/perspective/the-mystery-of-the-missing-1000-per-person-can-medicares-spending-slowdown-continue/

    Medicare spending is expected to be $1,000 lower per beneficiary in 2014 than was projected in 2010, and $2,400 lower in 2019

    Based on our comparison of CBO’s August 2010 and April 2014 baselines, Medicare spending this year will be about $1,000 lower per person than was expected in 2010, soon after passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which included reductions in Medicare payments to plans and providers and introduced delivery system reforms that aimed to improve efficiency and reduce costs.  By 2019, Medicare spending per person is projected to be nearly $2,400 lower per person than was expected following passage of the ACA.  Medicare spending projections in CBO’s August 2010 and subsequent baselines take into account the anticipated effects of the ACA, along with other factors that are expected to affect future Medicare spending.  So it seems that the ACA may be having a bigger than expected effect, but something else may be going on here too.

    And some people don't believe that Obamacare could have other beneficial effects! These are huge numbers no matter how you look at them. 


  73. Saving $1,000 per patient adds up quickly in a program that covers about 50 million people. More precisely, it adds up to about $50 billion in savings this year. The reduction in expected costs grows to $2,369 in 2019. With an expected 60 million seniors enrolled in Medicare that year, it would work out to more than $120 billion shaved off the total cost of the program.


  74. Could have been worse…

    BTW, it looks like we narrowly escaped the death cross on the Russell with that huge recovery of the last month. But not out of the woods yet. Of course, not that meaningful statistically speaking, but at least psychologically.


  75. As I've said, it's extremely bullish if we escape those death crosses like that.  Shows that the 200 dma is so strong, it even supports the 50 dma.   If the 50 dma does hold up here, I'd call it a bullish signal – say if the RUT retakes 1,170.  

    Meanwhile, I would have liked to see more volume to call today a reversal but anything positive tomorrow makes that case while anything negative is a bad sign for next week.  Maybe saved by a mega-merger on Monday, if they have any left in their pockets…


  76. From Bloomberg, Jul 11, 2014, 1:08:30 AM

    Asia’s benchmark stock index headed
    for its first weekly loss since May 9, the cost of insuring
    bonds in the region climbed and the yen maintained gains with
    gold amid concern that Europe’s debt problems haven’t been
    resolved. South Korea’s won fell a sixth day.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jvrP0h

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  77. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 6:03:00 PM

    Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

    Pacific Investment Management Co.’s
    Bill Gross decreased his holdings of Treasuries and government-related debt in June amid speculation the economy was building
    momentum and the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates
    sooner than forecast.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1nciwx4

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  78. From Bloomberg, Jul 11, 2014, 12:00:30 AM

    Three of the world’s richest men --
    Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and Sheldon Adelson — criticized the
    U.S. Congress, and particularly the Republican-led House, over
    its failure to revamp immigration laws.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/U5XxFe

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  79. From Bloomberg, Jul 11, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    Concern the bull market is overextended has led some investors to purchase protection to guard against more pronounced declines. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

    When the U.S. stock market opened
    yesterday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) was poised for the
    first 1 percent drop in three months. Then the bulls stepped in.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/TWlxuh

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  80. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 11:16:58 PM


    July 11 (Bloomberg) — Taimur Baig, director of Asia economics in Singapore at Deutsche Bank AG, talks about the Indian government’s budget and economic policies.
    He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-month-old government faces pressure to boost revenue to pay for food and fuel subsidies after he surprised analysts by leaving India’s budget deficit target unchanged.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mkUSCR

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  81. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 8:47:19 PM

    Chinese structured product offerings
    dropped by the most in six months in June after the government
    put in place measures to curb the shadow-banking industry,
    restricting issuers’ ability to sell the investments.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jvLgGf

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  82. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1oL24Ii

    The Mysterious Rise and Fall of Penny Stock Cynk

    July 10 (Bloomberg) — The financial world has become obsessed with Cynk Technology, a stock that sold for a few pennies for most of its existence before exploding more than 36,000 percent to give it a market value exceeding $6 billion. Tom Giles has more on “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  83. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 6:38:37 PM

    World leaders sought to steer
    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu away from sending
    ground forces into the Gaza Strip while Palestinian President
    Mahmoud Abbas demanded Hamas stop its rocket attacks.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mkVIQ4

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  84. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 12:27:58 PM


    Employees cycle past the headquarters of the Alibaba Group in Hangzhou city, east Chinas Zhejiang province. Photographer: Liang Zhen/AP Photo

    Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)’s proposal for what could be the largest initial stock offering in U.S. history is sailing through Washington with few bumps.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qo83Cv

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  85. From Bloomberg, Jul 6, 2014, 12:01:00 PM


    An Apple Inc. iPhone 5s displays a map on the Uber application during a demonstration in Tokyo. The San Francisco-based company has been targeting customers in China willing to pay a premium for the luxury of tracking the vehicle’s approach, not handling local cash and finding daily newspapers and a Wi-Fi access inside the car. Photographer: Junko Kimura-Matsumoto/Bloomberg

    Hangzhou Kuaidi Technology Co., a
    taxi-booking service backed by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA), is
    adding luxury cars in China to boost revenue as it steps up its
    challenge to Uber Technologies Inc.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ktAyuo

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  86. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 6:01:14 PM

    BMW plans to increase capacity in Spartanburg 50 percent to as many as 450,000 cars a year. Photographer: Ariana Lindquist/Bloomberg

    In South Carolina’s Blue Ridge
    foothills, the Hans & Franz Biergarten serves Wiener Schnitzel,
    German spaetzle and a concoction of sauerkraut, cream cheese,
    bacon and corned beef rolled in bread crumbs and fried.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kJA17X

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  87. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 9:35:07 PM


    An Indesit Co. employee fixes outer tub seals to a washing machine at the company’s factory in Comunanza, Italy. Photographer: Alessandra Benedetti/Bloomberg

    Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) said it agreed to
    buy stakes in Indesit Co., held by Fineldo SpA and members of
    the Merloni family, that represent 66.8 percent of the voting
    stock of the Italian maker of ovens and refrigerators.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mlnQCF

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  88. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 12:03:22 PM


    Executive chef Casey Thompson checks reservations at the Aveline restaurant in San Francisco. Photographer: Noah Berger/Bloomberg

    A labor crunch fueled by improving consumer confidence is cooking in the restaurant industry as venues from San Francisco to New York increase wages and benefits to attract cooks, servers and dishwashers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tqoJ1A

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  89. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 7:16:49 PM


    Billionaire Carlos Slim. Photographer: Susana Gonzalez/Bloomberg

    Carlos Slim is planning to spend more in countries such as Brazil while placing bigger bets on industries like energy, as regulatory pressure in Mexico splinters his most prized asset.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1nftrL2

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  90. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 7:04:34 AM


    Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 24, 2014 in Vienna, Austria. Photographer: Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images

    President Vladimir Putin’s government is blowing a hole in Russia’s finances by unsealing one of its rainy-day funds, all for a growth spurt that will fizzle out, according to the Finance Ministry’s debt chief.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1k9q57C

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  91. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 3:09:52 PM

    With domestic production at a 28-year high, Louisiana Offshore Oil Port LLC’s managers are thinking the previously unthinkable: they want to reverse the flows and send North American oil out as well as take foreign oil in. Source: Louisiana Offshore Oil Port LLC via Bloomberg

    For more than 30 years, the
    Louisiana Offshore Oil Port LLC has been a symbol of U.S.
    dependence on foreign oil, pumping Nigerian and Saudi Arabian
    crude from the world’s biggest supertankers into underground
    storage caverns beneath the marshes of southern Louisiana.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1nfzBL4

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  92. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 4:37:11 PM


    Kim Kardashian earned $28 million in the past 12 months, Forbes estimated last month. Photographer: Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images

    Kim Kardashian, the reality-TV star
    whose empire has expanded to include clothing, jewelry and
    cosmetics, now has a video game, and it’s a hit.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tpLgf1

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  93. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 12:00:01 AM


    The TSA in recent years had been trying to move an increasing number of U.S. fliers into its Pre-Check trusted traveler program after backlash over onerous screening procedures. Photographer: David McNew/Getty Images

    A limited number of domestic travelers selected for extra screening at U.S. airports will be made to turn on their electronics to show the devices aren’t bombs, said two people familiar with the government’s plans.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tpNn2u

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  94. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1oKhexj

    Luxury Travel: What Trends Are Hot This Summer?

    July 10 (Bloomberg) –- Virtuoso Chairman and CEO Matthew Upchurch and Spark Capital General Partner Mo Koyfman discuss luxury travel networks and the evolution of the travel agent. They speak on “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  95. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 7:00:27 PM

    The selloff in European bonds,
    sparked yesterday by banking woes in Portugal, evoked memories
    of the euro-region’s debt crisis. The minimal rise in periphery
    bond yields shows how far the nations have come in two years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ncrKJv

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  96. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 5:32:22 PM


    July 10 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer speaks about the financial crisis and progress made in the strengthening of the financial system and reducing the likelihood of another crisis.
    He speaks at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Federal Reserve Vice Chairman
    Stanley Fischer said a council of financial regulators
    established by the Dodd-Frank Act may need more authority to
    help guard against threats to the banking system.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mkzKge

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  97. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 12:00:01 PM


    July 1 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew talks about the outlook for next week’s U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, global trade and sanctions against Russia.
    Lew speaks with the Wall Street Journal’s Sudeep Reddy at an event hosted by the U.S.-China Business Council in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

    The U.S. and China completed talks
    by highlighting pledges on the yuan’s exchange rate and progress
    on a bilateral investment pact, as officials sought common
    ground amid cyberspying and maritime tensions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qZ5c6t

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  98. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 7:01:01 PM


    European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said, “We are fully committed to our policy of forward guidance, we are prepared to be watchful and helpful with regard to interest rate policy as long as it fits into our main mandate of price stability.” Photographer: Oliver Bunic/Bloomberg

    The European Central Bank’s newest
    stimulus package has had an impact on markets and there is no
    urgency to take additional steps, according to Governing Council
    member Ewald Nowotny.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ts9aqb

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  99. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 11:18:30 PM


    Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said in April inflation will probably accelerate somewhat next year as a result of tax increases and then moderate to about 3 percent in 2016. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Malaysia raised its key interest
    rate
    for the first time in more than three years after economic
    growth quickened and as the central bank seeks to curb the risk
    of financial imbalances.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1raC4GY

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  100. From Bloomberg, Jul 11, 2014, 1:00:00 AM

    Peru’s central bank unexpectedly cut
    borrowing costs for the first time in eight month as slowing
    mining investment hurts South America’s fastest growing economy
    of the last decade.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mkZw41

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  101. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 7:47:25 PM

    Credit investors lulled into
    complacency by the largesse of central banks are getting a
    reminder about risk.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/TWkAC7

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  102. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 3:23:39 PM

    European Central Bank Governing
    Council member Ewald Nowotny comments on monetary policy,
    stimulus measures, ECB minutes, exchange rates, the
    Comprehensive Assessment, and Austrian lenders.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mkp29z

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  103. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 12:24:35 PM

    Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy
    will have to take action to increase government revenue to
    compensate for the cost of tax cuts announced last month, the
    International Monetary Fund said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rbi1Zb

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  104. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 1:23:12 PM


    There’s still something Brazil can teach Argentina.                                               

    For the superstitious, the Aerolineas Argentina jet that taxied onto the runway in Barcelona, Spain, earlier this week, straight across the path of an inbound Utair Boeing, forcing the Russian airliner to pull up, might have been an omen.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1mk1e5H

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  105. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 5:02:07 PM

    Those who have new insurance since the law was passed seem to like what they have.

    Solid news about Obamacare keeps coming. It’s almost as if the myths about the law — the idea that it was a failure and about to collapse — were junk.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1mkCJ8j

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  106. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 4:16:32 PM


    Democratic Senator Mark Udall of Colorado is up for re-election in November.

    Nate Cohn has a must-read for those following Senate elections. He notices that the states that are most important for control of the Senate are also those with the least reliable polling.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1mkvf59

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  107. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 3:13:02 PM

    Last month, we noted how Congress reached a record low in confidence from the American people. (I blamed you, the non-voting public for allowing the inmates to take over the asylum and turning this into the worst. congress. ever.)

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/VPZLK4

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  108. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 1:16:26 PM

    Apple has a very expensive problem.

    Given such high-profile cases as the Apple-Samsung battle or the Zenimax lawsuit against virtual-reality company Oculus, it might appear tech companies sue each other over intellectual property all the time. They don’t. Most such litigation is initiated by patent trolls, whose sole purpose is to litigate against people who do more productive things.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1mk02z4

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  109. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 1:03:02 PM

    “The number of full-time reporters covering state legislatures for daily newspapers has declined 35 percent,” according to the Pew Research Center.

    If you really want to get depressed about democracy in the U.S., take a look at Reid Wilson’s summary of “The precipitous decline of state political coverage.” We’ve known that state and local news was the big loser in the new media landscape. But still, the Pew Research Center has a study showing that “the number of full-time reporters covering state legislatures for daily newspapers has declined 35 percent.”

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1mjXv80

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  110. From Bloomberg, Jul 10, 2014, 12:53:30 PM


    It’s a mid-size bank with a big problem.

    Europe has come a long way since the darkest days of 2012, when the common currency at the center of its union seemed on the verge of falling apart. But it hasn’t come far enough. This week’s turmoil surrounding a Portuguese bank shows how fragile the euro area’s financial system still is.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1mjVVD4

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  111. Phil/TASR

     

    yesterday you recommended again this company  still, in fundamentals for a Long I can' t find it specially attractive or with wide open possibilities (  IRBT other of the LTP is more clear).  Have you any analysis or info in the site I haven't read?


  112. Good morning!  

    TASR/Advill – Nothing in a very long time.  JPM just made a good point on them:

    JPMorgan views the recent pullback in shares of TASER as a buying opportunity and calls yesterday's press release regarding deployments of AXON and EVIDENCE.com across 11 law enforcement agencies a positive. The firm says its talks with management suggest TASER is on track for 10% CAGR for the device business for the next several years. It keeps an Overweight rating on the stock.

    Earnings estimates are very low (0.07) and I think they beat (7/30) but, even if they don't, they are on their way to .50/share next year for a p/e of 22, which is low considering 30-40% growth expected.  I picked TASR as my stock of the Decade at $4 in 2010 but, at $16, we lost interest last year.  Now, back at $11, I'm interested again.  


  113. OK, it´s clear now, thank you.