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Technical Tuesday – Rejected, Rejected, Rejected!

So much for 2,000 holding.

Fortunately, our Big Chart kept us cautiously bearish into the weekend and the hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio functioned perfectly, gaining $13,000 on the day and completely offsetting the drop of $8,000 in our Long-Term Portfolio. 

That's without our big hedge, DXD, kicking in yet, as the Dow is still over 17,000 but, should it fail, we'll see those STP gains multiply quickly.  

For those of you who are not Members, and don't have access to our various Member Portfolios (and you can by subscribing here), we have done our best to prepare you for this drop as well.  Last Thursday, right in the morning post, I shared our short stance with the general public, saying

It's going to be crazy into the weekend but, in our Live Chat Room this morning, I said to our Members:

Futures pumped back up to yesterday's highs at 17,125, 2,001.50, 4,080 and 1,156.5 so I like shorting below 17,100, 2,000, 4,075 and 1,155 – short the laggard, out of any of them cross back over – very simple! 

That's our plan into the weekend.  As I've mentioned before, we're also using DXD ($24 at the time), TZA ($14.68) and SQQQ ($35.26) to hedge our long portfolios – just in case things unravel over the weekend.  We also discussed FXI ($40.30) puts earlier in the week as a play on China melting down so PLENTY of ways to profit from the downside.

INDU DAILYThis morning, the Futures are 17,050 on /YM (up $375 per contract), 1,979 on /ES (up $1,125 per contract), 4,035 on /NQ (up $900 per contract) and 1,116.50 on /TF (up $4,000 per contract) – so that strategy went pretty well.

In last Wednesday's post, we also shorted Oil Futures at $95 and oil fell to $91 yesterday – up $4,000 per contract in less than a week (and these are just the freebies!) while, for non-Futures players (don't worry, we'll teach you!), the proxy was the SCO Sept $30 calls at 0.25 – those expired Friday at $1.20 – up 380% in three days!  

In that same morning post (Wednesday), we were playing the Fed and the BULLISH TNA $71.50 calls at $1.80 maxed out at $4.50 the next day (up 150%), well ahead of our 50% goal for that trade.  By taking non-greedy exits on our directional bets, we are able to profit from market moves in either direction.  We had 4 more bullish trade ideas in that post – but long-term ones that are still cooking.  

Tuesday (again, right in the main post) we warned you that the Russell was making a death cross and would be our most vulnerable index.  That effect can now be clearly seen on the big chart above.  At the time, I reiterated our 9/2 Morning Alert, in which I said to our Members:

 If, however, you buy just $2,500 worth of the of the TZA Oct $13/16 bull call spread at $1 (25 contracts), they will pay you back $7,500 if TZA goes up about 15% (just a 5% move up in the RUT) AND they don't lose all their money until TZA is down 10% (a 3% move up in the RUT).  

Last Monday, for free in the main post, we discussed the FXI Jan $42/38 bear put spread at $1.80, which pays 122% if my theory on Chinese Market weakness pays off.  Amazingly, it only took a week and already that spread is at $2.55, up 41% in its first week!  These are the kinds of trades we teach you to make at Philstockworld.  In fact, we have a Live Trading Webinar at 1pm this afternoon for our Members – you can join us there.  

If this post sounds a bit promotional, it's because I want to give our free readers fair warning as we stop giving out free trade ideas during earnings season (just starting) and we'll be raising our Membership fees in October – so this is your absolute last chance to get in at the current prices.  

Still not convinced?  How about the week before, on 9/11, when I laid out our war case for RTN at $101.  Despite yesterday's pullback, they are still at $102.40 but our spread, which was the 2016 $100/115 bull call spread offset by the short 2016 $80 puts at net $1.95 is already up to $2.62 – a 34% gain in 12 days!  Why did we make money on a relatively flat couple of weeks – because we SOLD premium and, as the volatility of the stock calmed down, the price of the options we sold got lower too.  This is our call strategy in which we teach our Members to BE THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler:

The day before, on Sept. 10th, our Free Trade Ideas were the weekly QQQ $100 calls at 0.40, which made the 50% we were looking for that day, as well as the TZA Jan $15/20 bull call spread we had picked up in that Tuesday's Webinar at $1, that were only $1.08 that morning (and got back to $1) and are now $1.25, up 25% again and a fantastic hedge.  

That brings us to our only failed trade ideas (so far) of the past two weeks' posts and it was a short put on GTAT – selling the 2016 $10 puts for $2.25 and CCJ, selling the 2016 $17 puts for $1.90.  Both stocks have gone down with the market and the GTAT $10 puts are now $2.80 (down 24%) with the stock at $11.28 and the CCJ $17 puts are still $1.90 (unchanged).  

I've been baning the table so hard on GTAT while they dropped that I've already told our Members I'm done talking about them.  If I haven't convinced people there's value there, I never will – until, of course, the stock jumps back up but, by then it will be too late.  This will be the last free trade idea pre-earnings and though selling the $10 puts for $2.80 nets you in for $7.20 and that seems really good, you can sell the $12 puts for $4 and that nets you in for $8 – just as good with more money in your pocket!  In fact, if you are short the $10 puts, I'd roll up and short the higher ones for an extra $1.20.  

With $4 in your pocket against a promise to buy GTAT for $12, I think spending $2 on the $10/17 bull call spread is very reasonable.  You still have a net $2 credit and a net $10 entry on the stock and, at $17, you would get back another $7 for a $9 gain on a $2 credit (+450%), not bad for 16 months "work"!  

The only other trade idea we gave away that week was on Tuesday, 9/9, ahead of Apple's iWatch announcement (on Monday I just ranted about Market Manipulation and why you shouldn't trust the run-up).  That one used the same principle as our RTN trade above, where we sold a lot of premium to suckers who thought they could beat the house:

In case you missed our earlier entries this year, we still love AAPL as a long-term play and you can still sell the 2016 $80 puts for $5 for a net $75 entry and that can be paired with the 2016 $100/120 bull call spread at $5.70 for net 0.70 on the $20 spread so you get almost all of the upside on a move over $100 (with a max profit of 2,757% on cash) and your worst case is you end up owning AAPL at net $80.70, which is 18% off the current price.

Like RTN, AAPL was at $99.08 that morning and is now at $101.06, not much of a move but the same effect has taken the $80 puts down to $4.25 while the bull call spread is now $6.50 for net $2.25 – up 221% in two weeks.  

We don't have to be brilliant when we are BEING THE HOUSE!  


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  1. Good morning, everyone!

    Today's webinar link is:

    The event number, should you need it for the mobile app or something, is: 299 578 228

  2. Phis / member fees

    Are you going to increase to everybody?…just newcomers?????

  3. Phil /futures   Perhaps is my english but sometimes I don´t see so clearly what positions are you into, we don´t know when are buying / selling and then next day we have an article saying that YM  got  $800 per contract or CL $1,000  I then reread the comments of previous day and FOR ME there are not clear calls or actions to do.

    Surely is MY fault but is what i have.,

  4. Good morning!   

    In honor of the Jewish New Year (tomorrow):

  5. Good Morning!

  6. any strategy on /TF – just rejected pretty hard at 1120

  7. And by the way, if you missed this morning's early comments, don't miss the Daily Show exposing Republican idiocy on Climate Change:  

    It is truly terrifying that these guys control the committee that sets this policy.  Each of these Representatives needs to be removed in November – for the good of the planet!  

    Member fees/Advill – For existing Members, they should only go up about 10-15% (which is to say your Continuing Member Discount will rise to compensate).  It's been ages since we had an increase but, as usual, we generally pass things along to people who aren't here yet – those rates will be doubling!  

    Futures/Advill – Well, I'm talking to people in the free section and those were just straight short calls.  In chat, we go in and out and in and out constantly but, in general, we certainly got the direction right.  Yesterday, for example, /NKD came right back to our shorting line at 16,225 and dropped a nice 200 points again for a $1,000 per contract gain.  I can't call the same trade over and over and over again – we set our lines and we play them.   Also, I don't want you to FOLLOW Futures trades, I want you to LEARN how to trade the Futures so you see this stuff yourself.  If we all pile into the same trades at the same time, people will take advantage of it and burn us – I'm trying to teach you how to trade.

    For instance, yesterday morning, I said this at 9:40:

    Markets looking weak already.  /ES rejected at 2,000, /TF rejected at 1,135, YM rejected at 17,200 – if /NQ fails 4,075 and /YM fails 17,150 – that is bad.  /NKD is laggard at 16,215 – good for a short below 16,235.  

    Then I said this at 10:45:

    TZA/Wombat – Don't cry over spilled options.  I'm actually long /TF at the moment at 1,125.80 – trying to get to 1,125 on maybe 4 and play for the bounce but the fall from 1,160 on Friday means 35 points so weak bounce 1,132.50 and strong at 1,140. 

    And /TF did this:

    So it failed the weak bounce and that keeps us bearish.   

    Meanwhile, /NKD was doing this:

    Then, at 11:27, I said this:

    Still, these are good bounce lines:  17,100, 1,990, 4,050 and 1,125 – long the laggard but not if any of them fail.  

    And they failed. 

    After that, I personally lost interest and there were no questions so that was pretty much the end of our Futures discussion but, other than pausing to play for the bounce – we have been consistently short since last week.  

    The Futures are very fast-moving and dangerous.  I do not advocate playing them for the long-term unless you have a tremendous amount of money to burn.  Notice how the RUT repeatedly failed at 1,125 yesterday – each of those rejections was good for $200-300 and the last one, at 3:45, blasted down past 1,120 into the close without triggering a stop.  

    Those are the ones you should learn to take advantage of.  There were thousands to be made making small plays over and over and over again, rather than waiting for one good drop. 

    /TF/Wombat – It's a very bouncy line and I'm not too keen on playing the Futrues today until we see what holds and what doesn't.  The dollar was smacked down from 84.975 back to 84.45 (0.5%+) and now sits at 84.595.  Without that, we'd be lower but, with it, we should be bouncy but I don't have any good reason to play for bouncy (though I'll put up bounce lines next).

  8. Late start this morning…

    Oil Lines

    R3 – 93.46
    R2 – 92.70
    R1 – 91.95
    PP – 91.18
    S1 – 90.44
    S2 – 89.67
    S3 – 88.93

  9. I'm missing trades & by the time I play catch-up I can't get in. Is there a way to get emailed the quick trades such as the Tsla 150 short & the the short QQQ. By the time I play them it is difficult to get at a good price. I did do the Tsla short, but I have gtat  sold at 15, which was the first trade I believe. I have to have some freedom from being glued to the comments section every day, but the short-term trades are impossible. I am not utilizing as I should be. I do get emails from some traders; why not Phil's? I wish there was a way to quickly check to see what the latest is. Being a newbie is tough enough, but missing out is tough.

  10. Speaking of removing climate deniers from Congress, maybe Google is going now in that directions slowly:

    Schmidt did not comment on ALEC’s stances on net neutrality and municipal broadband, but criticized the group's position on climate change.

    “The company has a very strong view that we should make decisions in politics based on facts, what a shock, and the facts of climate change are not in question anymore,” Schmidt said. “Everyone understands that climate change is occurring, and the people who oppose it are really hurting our children and grandchildren and making the world a much worse place. And so we should not be aligned with such people. They’re just literally lying.”

  11. Commodities players bouncing just a bit this morning or shall we say, free falling slower! These guys are the biggest holes in my portfolio right now – ABX, BTU, GDX… Proof that stocks that are cheap can always get cheaper on momentum alone (as momentum works both ways). For example, BTU loses 50% going from $40 to $20 – cheap… and then promptly loses another 35% to $13. Cheaper! It's possible that these guys are close to a bottom, but that's betting that China will actually get better and I am not sure it's a good bet right now.

    So for now, I won't add to my positions and wait for better signals on these guys! Crossing a significant moving average would be a start – pick your poison: 50 DMA, 200 DMA. That will be a late entry for sure, but when you can sell a LEAPS put at about 1 SD lower than the current price and make 100% on margin, being late is not a huge problem as you'll probably get an entry point close to the lows anyway. 

  12. The laws of big numbers catching up in China:

    The Chinese government needs to prevent a drop in growth so sharp it violently disrupts the economy. And eventually, that probably means more stimulus. What CBB’s research suggests, though, is that monetary stimulus won’t be enough. With companies so reluctant to borrow, if the government wants to get investment going, it’s going to have to do it itself.

  13. Good article on the folly of buybacks – my quote of the day from yesterday came from there:

    The more immediate culprit is the decline in the quality of corporate governance. The average tenure of the US CEO is falling. Buying back shares instead of investing makes sense if you do not expect to be around for the pay-off. It is a no-brainer if you measure the time horizons of most executive reward packages. In 2012, the 500 highest paid US executives made on average $30.3m each, according to Prof Lazonick. More than 80 per cent of it came in the form of stock options or stock awards. Their incentives are skewed towards extracting value from the companies they run, rather than creating future value.

    What can be done? The lazy instinct is to blame executive greed. But human avarice is as old as the wheel. If properly aligned, we should all benefit. The problem is that US corporate incentives have become badly out of whack with the interests of society. Since the fashion for buybacks took off, average corporate pay has risen to more than 300 times average earnings (up from a multiple of 20 times in the 1970s), while median wages have stagnated. Meanwhile, corporate taxes keep dwindling as a share of federal revenues. Weak antidotes, such as shareholder “Say on Pay”, which is non-binding, have not checked the trend. Moral exhortations are almost always futile. Tougher remedies are needed.

  14. OK, so we closed yesterday with these major bounce lines on the INDEXES (not the Futures).  

    • Dow 16,980 (weak) and 17,010 (strong) 
    • S&P 1,985 (weak) and 1,990 (strong) 
    • Nasdaq 4,560 (weak) and 4,570 (strong) 
    • NYSE 10,950 (weak) and 11,000 (strong) 
    • Russell 1,160 (weak) and 1,170 (strong)

    Since we haven't made new lows that held for a day, we're not redrawing the bounce lines yet.

    On the Futures, however, we're more concerned with short-term drops and those were:

    • /YM 17,250 to 17,050 (spikes tossed) so 200 points gives us 40-point bounces to 17,090 (weak) and 17,130 (strong) but, since it's the Dow, we'd rather round to 17,100 and 17,150.  
    • /ES 2,010 to 1,980 is 30 points and, like the Dow, we'll round to 5 and call it 1,985 and 1,990 but we also know 1,992 is the real strong bounce line (which will matter if it gets there).  
    • /NQ 4,120 to 4,040 is 80 points, so 16 rounds to 15 and we'll look for 4,055 and 4,070 but we already know 4,075 has been a strong line, so we'll call that the real strong bounce line.  
    • /TF 1,160 to 1,115 is 45 and that rounds to 10 so 1,125 (which we know has been a good resistance) and 1,135 will be our watches but 1,140 is the -5% line – so that's critical on the way up.  

    So, what doe we do with this knowledge?  Since /ES is 1,985.5 and /TF is 17,075 and /NQ is 4,054 and /TF is 1,124.50, we're going to watch closely and see if all the weak bounces are taken.  If so, we can go long on the laggard over their line (with super-tight stops below or if ANY index fails their weak bounce) and also, if they are all taken out, we may want to take some of our option shorts off the table as well – until they cross back under, of course.  

    We temper this technical view with what we read in the news and try to figure out WHY we would be bouncing, rather than just playing the bounce as if it has merit.  As I noted above, the Dollar is weak – that's one factor – but Europe also found a bottom at our open and maybe they are tied, maybe not.  This is the time at which I'll usually turn to the news to see what's changed…

    Trades/Pirate – If you miss a trade, don't play it!  Chasing is never a good idea.  Every morning a new RSS feed is linked at the end of the main post.  If you are a Member, you can use that RSS feed, filter for "Phil" and pick up all my comments in your Email but I only Email out specific trades if they are major positions I feel the majority of our Members can benefit from – and that's not too many.  We have many types of Members and short-term trades are for people who are actively trading and able to quickly stop out or take profits – not really a good idea to trade them in a way when you are specifically not "glued to your screen".  You need to decide what kind of trader you are and pick trade ideas that fit that style.  

    On the whole, this is a site that follows the philosophy of "If you give a man a fish you feed him for a day. If you teach a man to fish you feed him for a lifetime."  We're trying to teach you HOW to trade and WHY we make trades and WHEN to trade so you can lean to make your own trades, not just follow whatever fish we toss out.  

    Meanwhile, we average 200 trade ideas a month and we're tracking over 100 in our various portfolios – there's plenty to choose from but no, I'm not going to trade all that in so I can be more like other sites, which generally suck and teach people nothing. 

    GOOG/StJ – That's GREAT!!! We need people to stand up to ALEC, those guys are pure evil!  

    Chopsticks/QC – Very cool.  

    Commodities/StJ – Goes back to this:  "The Worst-Case Scenario: Getting Real With Global GDP!"  That's why I love materials stocks when they get cheap.  There IS a bottom – people need to eat and put a roof on their heads and draw water from a well and those people don't give a crap about how well AliBaba's IPO went or whether or not MCD is selling more or less happy meals.  

    The stimulus issue in China is dead on.  I've been saying that for over a year now, they get to a point where they can no longer afford the stimulus they need as the need increases constantly as they artificially push the GDP.  We're doing it too, the difference is we didn't try to fake 7.5% growth for 3 years…

    Buybacks another pet peeve of mine – is this finally the comeuppance?  

  15. Some of the newer Momos are strong today  i.e., AMBA, GPRO, ANET, etc.

  16. There is a growing movement to get large institutions such as university endowments to divest from fossil fuel companies especially coal related.    BTU could be feeling some effects from this.

  17. re: China, FWIW, lumber business is sucking wind there for most part.  I'm "long" some containers of lumber sitting in a warehouse and watching their value decline.  The bid/ask sort of sucks on those, come on buy them already you dummies :)

  18. Phil / futures

    Most of us have LTP and others STP but ALL of us have a lot of time in the sessions  while waiting things to come together  ( or planets to align…as you prefer) to try to do something ( what you call your  McMuffin), and for me is bit frustrating not to have HOW TO PAY YOU in a daily base, that is specially true when you next day says this  and that   $xx here and $xxx there….hey! wait, when that was going in that way!, as I mentioned perhaps is m english but assuming that´s true , sometimes what or how to do is not so clear….that could be OK for me but not for a guru like you.

    In conclusion… not claiming , just underlying.



    The Futures are very fast-moving and dangerous.  I do not advocate playing them for the long-term unless you have a tremendous amount of money to burn.  Notice how the RUT repeatedly failed at 1,125 yesterday – each of those rejections was good for $200-300 and the last one, at 3:45, blasted down past 1,120 into the close without triggering a stop.  

    Those are the ones you should learn to take advantage of.  There were thousands to be made making small plays over and over and over again, rather than waiting for one good drop. 


  19. Sorry the last part should be first in quotes..

  20. I follow quite closely, but somehow no matter how much I scan I'm still not keeping up which gets frustrating. Thanks for the RSS feed-I will definitely do that. Everyone jokes that I am reading my emails because I always have a screen in my face during the day-they haven't a clue what I'm really doing which is the way I am going to keep it. I keep track of the portfolios, but its only the short day trades I basically miss. And they would make up for the big loss in yhoo that is truly amazing! Twitter does not go down & has NO earnings! Any adjustments to yhoo? Thinking of rolling down-way down.

  21. China Stimulus / Phil – That has been my point for a while now. Buying 7.5% of growth when you are a $3T economy might cost $200B. That same 7.5% when you are at $10T requires maybe $700B! That money has come from somewhere and it's becoming harder as your cash reserve dwindles because export are a smaller portion of your GDP - a good thing in the long run but tough in the short run when you try to buy growth.

  22. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 6:37:01 AM

    Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. and its Arab allies launched a series of airstrikes against Islamic State positions in Syria, a major expansion of President Barack Obama’s effort to destroy the Sunni extremist group. Bloomberg’s Willem Marx reports on “In The Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Israel shot down a Syrian fighter jet after it flew over the Golan Heights, the Israeli army said today, the first such incident in almost 30 years and the neighbors’ most serious clash since the start of Syria’s civil war.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  23. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 8:13:38 AM

    Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew speaks about the U.S. and global economies, financial regulation and tax inversions at a news conference in Cairns, Australia, following a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers. (Video courtesy of G-20. Source: Bloomberg)

    Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew’s crackdown on inversions will get an immediate test as eight U.S. companies with pending deals decide whether to proceed — and other companies contemplating a foreign address now have to think twice.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  24. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    Evening traffic in downtown Los Angeles, California. Photographer: David McNew/Getty Images

    California Governor Jerry Brown has a moonshot goal for the world’s eighth-largest economy as he seeks to lead the global fight against climate change: 1.5 million zero-emission cars on state roads in the next decade.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  25. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 9:53:01 AM

    Jacob J. Lew, U.S. Treasury secretary. Photographer: Mario Proenca/Bloomberg

    Medtronic Inc. (MDT), the Minnesota-based medical device maker that’s planning to take an Irish tax address, may become one of the biggest losers under rules announced by the Obama administration.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  26. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 10:30:14 AM

    U.S. home prices rose less than
    economists estimated in July as investors pull back from the
    property market.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  27. From Bloomberg, Sep 22, 2014, 8:38:39 PM

    Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said policy makers will first increase the benchmark and then cease reinvesting maturing debt from its record $4.45 trillion balance sheet, reducing holdings in a “gradual and predictable manner.” Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Goldman Sachs Asset Management predicts Treasury 10-year yields may climb to the highest level in four years as the Federal Reserve ends its bond-buying program and weighs the first interest-rate increase since 2006.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  28. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 6:14:38 AM

    Investors bracing for higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve in 2015 need to expand their horizons or risk being caught off-guard.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  29. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 10:17:12 AM

    The dollar fell against most of its
    major peers as signals of an uneven economic recovery damped
    speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  30. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 9:58:36 AM

    Luxury-home builder Toll Brothers Inc. is hoping for better times ahead even as fragile consumer confidence and limited wage growth have led to “choppy seas and a sloppy boat ride” so far in this recovery, Robert Toll, the Horsham, Pennsylvania-based company’s chairman, said. Photographer: Mark Elias/Bloomberg

    Bruce Hottle’s $10,000 computer systems upgrade in February at his Pennsylvania concrete plant may be his last investment for another two years.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  31. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 8:19:31 AM

    Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) — Sanford C. Bernstein Senior Analyst Bruno Monteyne discusses Tesco overhauling its accounting practices after suspending four executives after overstating its first-half profit estimate. He speaks to Bloomberg’s Anna Edwards and Mark Barton on “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/B) Vice Chairman Charles Munger recently summed up the past seven years of Tesco Plc, (TSCO) Britain’s biggest grocer, in a beat.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  32. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 7:22:25 AM

    Welcome to Fall! Here are our autumnal equinox reads to start off the new season:

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  33. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks about Fed policy, communications and the U.S. economy.
    Kocherlakota, speaking in Marquette, Michigan, says policy makers should improve communications by saying how long they expect it will take for price increases to reach their target level. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota said policy makers should improve communications by saying how long they expect it will take for price increases to reach their target level.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  34. GPRO is starting to look shortable again.  Waiting to see if it can hit 75.

  35. RUT is about 2% below the 200 day with double tops March, July, and clearly a lower high when it needed to break out. Next would be a lower low, below 1120.

  36. Building/Pwright – There's just nothing going on.  Our population isn't growing (no more immigrants either) and new households aren't being formed because kids come out of college saddled with unpayable amounts of debt and social security no longer realistically covers people's expenses when they retire – least of all with property taxes now higher than mortgage payments for older homes.   It might be a long time before there's a turnaround in demand for lumber or anything to do with the housing market without some ground-up stimulus.  

    Futures/Advill – First of all, that kind of trading is not for everyone, it is very fast-paced and volatile and it may not suit your style of trading.  Last week, in the Webinar, I was down about $2,800 on my /ES shorts, they turned around the next day to +$2,800 but it was a rough trade that's certainly not for smaller investors.  If you need specific in and out instructions to make these trades – you shouldn't be making the trades.  This is what you need to understand – it takes years of practice to get good at this stuff.  What you are saying, essentially, is that I am, for example, Hank Arron and I'm trying to teach you how to hit a home run.  I can do my best explaining it to you and I can show you EXACTLY how I do it and we can work on your batting stance and practice your swings and I can even stand at your side and shout "swing!"at the right moment when the right pitch comes your way – BUT THE REST IS STILL UP TO YOU!  If you are not a home run hitter – don't try to hit home runs…

    By the way, once again /TF failed at 1,125 and fell to 1,120 for a $500 per contract gain.  You just quoted me saying you need to take advantage of those.  Did you?  That was the sound of me taking you to the batters box, showing you exactly where to stand, TELLING you exactly where the pitch would be and even shouting "SWING!" wink

    And, of course, we have a nice channel now from 1,120 to 1,125 on /TF so we can go bullish at the bottom and bearish on the top – stopping out if either end breaks on us. 

    Day trades/Pirate – If you have nothing better to do during the day (I don't because this is my job!), then day trade but, if you are out having a life – have a life.  You're not "missing" anything – there will always be something else to trade tomorrow.  YHOO we adjusted yesterday.  

    China/StJ – That's why top down stimulus doesn't work – it has no lasting effect.  When you put money in the pockets of the bottom 80%, they use it on things they actually need and want and that creates demand in the things people need and want and causes jobs to be created servicing the things people need and want and those newly employed people then have their own money to spend and the virtuous cycle continues.  

    On the other hand, when you lend ACT $25Bn at 3%, they buy FRX and cut 20% of the workforce and the excess profits flow to the top 1% shareholders and bankers who put the deal together while competition is reduced and prices rise for the bottom 80% consumers.  That's how Stagflation starts – stagnant economy + top down inflation which leaves less money for commodities so they drop too and corporations begin to make less money as their customers run out of it and then they start to lay people off again –  downward spiral.  

    Trouble/Shadow – Still a very mild pullback – so far.  

  37. Rustle123 – GPRO.   Your call last time was spot on.  I'm still long GPRO as well as AMBA and ANET, but it might be time to hedge.

  38. ~~It might be a long time before there's a turnaround in demand for lumber or anything to do with the housing market without some ground-up stimulus. 

    Phil that stimulus would take action even the democrats are against, I hold out for a shakeup in November and we get serious about roads, the only construction with enough fat and waste to satisfy the top.  

  39. [$$] Peabody Lifts 3rd-Quarter Ebitda View

    • Peabody Energy (BTU +3.9%) opens higher after reporting higher expectations for Q3 EBITDA, now seeing a range of $190M-$210M, which BTU says reflects strong cost improvements and operating results.
    • BTU says it is experiences higher than expected results from the western U.S., improved performance from Australian metallurgical coal mines and continued cost reductions across the platform.
    • Also updates Q3 EPS targets to a loss of $0.63-$0.69 from prior expectations for a loss of $0.40-$0.53, primarily reflecting the effects of non-cash tax expense following the repeal of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax in Australia.

    But at least they Email you a trade:

    • Dow -0.25%.
    • 10-yr +0.04%.
    • Euro +0.09% vs. dollar.
    • Crude +0.92% to $91.71.
    • Gold +0.39% to $1,222.70.
    • The Philadelphia Fed's Charles Plosser yesterday announced his retirement and another faithful hawk, Dallas' Richard Fisher, must step down in April due to Fed retirement rules.
    • The two were notable for their dissent – they want a quicker timetable for rate hikes – from last week's FOMC decision.
    • Checking the "dots," Jon Hilsenrath says pulling the two's estimates would bring the 2015 year-end median forecast rate down to 1-1.25% from 1.25-1.5%. The 2016 forecast would be 2.5-2.75% from 2.75-3%. This naturally assumes two hawks won't be appointed to replace Plosser and Fisher.
    • Maybe more important, the exit of the two means the exit of two dissents on a committee that prizes consensus very highly.
    • U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew says that the Obama Administration is prepared to institute rules to stop tax inversion deals. If so, it will do so without a sliver of Republican support. Barclays analyst Michael Leuchten says, "Washington is playing for time. It makes them look good and it allows Congress to maybe get its act together and maybe do something on the legislative side."
    • Mr. Lew's comments have spooked the market a bit. European companies already involved in deals or rumored to be targets are all under pressure due to the perception that some of the deals already announced may be at risk.
    • The U.S. firm in the best position is Horizon Pharma (NASDAQ:HZNP). It completed its tax inversion transaction with Ireland-based Vidara Therapeutics last week.
    • Related tickers: (MDT -0.4%)(COV -0.5%)(ABBV -0.6%)(SHPG -0.7%)(OTCQB:SHPGF-1.5%)(PFE -0.7%)(AZN -0.1%)(SNN +0.1%)(SYK -0.8%)
    • September US PMI Manufacturing 57.9 vs 58.1 consensus, 57.9 in August.
    • Manufacturing employment growth hits 2.5 year high, boosted by further strong rises in output and new orders.
    • September Richmond Fed Mfg. Survey+14 vs. +10 forecast, +12 in August.
    • Shipments 11 vs. 10
    • Capacity Utilization 13 vs. 17
    • Number of Employees 17 vs. 11
    • Average Workweek 10 vs. 8
    • Wages 9 vs. 11

    Redbook Chain Store Sales remain soft

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales: +3.7% Y/Y vs. +3.6% last week.
    • -0.6% M/M vs. -0.4% last week.
    • "Redbook's month-on-month indication is soft, which points to weakness for core sales in the government's September retail sales report."
    • ICSC Retail Store Sales: +4.1% Y/Y vs. +3% last week.
    • +0.1% W/W vs. -2.6% last week.
    • "The report notes wide strength in the week including for electronic stores which are getting a boost from the release of Apple's iPhone 6".

    FHFA Housing Price Index

    Goldman: Market not yet pricing in end of QE

    • "Once the Fed stops buying and reinvesting in Treasurys you get quantitative tightening,”says the head of Asia-Pacific fixed income for Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Philip Moffitt. “The impact will begin as soon as tapering ends, and reinvesting coupons alone will not be enough to offset the rolldown of stock.”
    • The result, he says, could be a 10-year Treasury yield rising to as high as 4% over the next year, the fastest jump in long rates since 2010. “The very fact that the Fed is doing nothing adds duration risk to the market and that’s why we are bearish on Treasurys."
    • The 10-year yield is lower by two basis points to 2.55% in today's early action.
    • TLT +0.1%, TBT -0.2% premarket

    Companies propose $8B green energy project for L.A.

    • Four companies propose an $8B green energy plan for Los Angeles that features a massive electricity storage facility as its centerpiece.
    • The companies – Duke Energy's (NYSE:DUK) Duke-American Transmission, Dresser-Rand (NYSE:DRC), Magnum Energy (OTC:MGNEF) and Pathfinder Renewable Wind Energy – also are proposing to build a large wind farm in Wyoming; a 525-mile transmission line would connect that site to the underground storage facility in Utah.
    • The facility would yield an output equivalent to that of a large nuclear plant, enough to serve 1.2M homes in the L.A. area, the companies say.

    Cameco downgraded at BofA as Japan reactor restarts remain delayed

    • Cameco (CCJ -0.6%) is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a $21 price target, down from $26, at BofA/Merrill as the firm's commodities team lowers its 2015-17 uranium price forecast due to slower than expected Japanese reactor restarts and unwavering supply.
    • BofA continues to view CCJ as the go-to equity in the uranium industry, but Japan nuclear restarts, which the firm had viewed as the most likely near-term catalyst, continues be delayed due to lack of public support.
    • The firm expects CCJ shares to remain range-bound, given limited upside on uranium spot/term prices near and medium term.

    Fitch Ratings weighs in on Anheuser-Busch InBev/SABMiller combination

    • Fitch Ratings says an acquisition of SABMiller (OTCPK:SBMRY) by Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) that included equity funding would help the combined beer giant keepan investment grade rating.
    • The ratings agency notes the tie-up would lead to only a few divestments due to the relatively limited overlap of beer brands.
    • Currency risk would be increased for the brewer, notes Fitch, as a majority of the incoming cash comes in from Latin America, Africa, and eastern Europe – while the debit is denominated in euros and dollars.

    Steve Wynn brushes aside Macau land deal probe

    • Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) CEO Steve Wynn says regulators in Macau have concluded a probe into the company's land deal on the Cotai Strip without finding any issues.
    • "It’s totally mundane, irrelevant," notes a confident Wynn.
    • Earlier this summer, media reports in Macau highlighted an investigation into a $50M payment made by the company for lands rights.
    • survey conducted by Asia Gambling Brief indicates that gamblers in China prefer casinos in Macau and Singapore to other alternatives.
    • Analysts think Macau will keep a strong pull on tourists, despite the accelerating pace of casino development in Asia.

    William Blair downgrades Dick's Sporting Goods on Amazon threat

    • William Blair downgrades Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) to a Market Perform rating from Outperform.
    • The investment firm thinks Dick's could see increased competition from Amazon with the amount of product crossover high.
    • DKS -5.9% premarket

    3D Systems higher on reported GM deal

    • Piper reports 3D Systems (DDD +1.9%) has landed a deal with GM that could be worth $6M-$8M. Shares have spiked higher in response.
    • Analyst Troy Jensen: "To our knowledge Detroit experienced significant rainfall over a short period of time and this caused a flood in General Motors' Rapid Prototyping facility … This ultimately ruined multiple machines and we believe General Motors purchased or ordered 11 iPro 8000s (list for roughly $600K) and a couple of SinterStation machines in the September quarter."
    • By itself, the deal doesn't move the needle significantly for 3D Systems: The company's 2014 and 2015 revenue consensus estimates are respectively at $708.8M and $926.2M.
    • Alibaba (BABA -2.5%) is now down 5% from a post-IPO opening trade of $92.70, and 12% from a peak (reached shortly afterwards) of $99.70. Shares are still up 29% from their $68 IPO price.
    • The decline comes even as bullish notes from non-underwriters continue to arrive.Rosenblatt Securities forecasts Alibaba's sales will rise 48% in FY15 (ends March '15) to $12.51B, and declares the Chinese e-commerce market is still in its early stages.
    • Rosenblatt highlights the transformative impact Alibaba's Taobao site (estimated to account for ~60% of China's e-commerce GMV) is having on a deeply fragmented Chinese retail scene. "The key significance of Taobao in the China market is that it is connecting merchants/consumers across what have been sharp geographic boundaries … the majority of the Chinese population is not practically reachable from a physical retail reach standpoint."
    • Quartz recently made similar points. "China’s logistics system is governed by nine separate ministries and commissions … Thanks to high transaction costs, no trucking firm has yet established a nationwide network … As of 2008, China had only 549,000 retail enterprises, compared with the US’s 1.1 million … For any customers outside the very biggest cities, product selection was dismal. Online shopping revolutionized that."
    • MKM launched coverage with a Buy and $125 target yesterday. The firm praised Alibaba's business model and dominant market position, and noted there's plenty of room for the company to grow its active buyer count (currently 279M), given China's size. At the same time, concerns were raised about Alibaba's complex ownership structure and near-term mobile monetization.
    • Previous: Analysts defend Alibaba's valuation

    Landmark ruling in push for 'Oldies' royalties

    • A judge in California rules that Sirius XM Radio (SIRI +1.6%) violated state copyright laws and may have to pay members of the Turtles royalties for the use of the rock group's hit songs.
    • The case has been closely watched by the music industry with efforts underway to way create an "Oldies Law" for recordings which predate a 1972 federal law.

    Pay-TV watch: Here come the mini-bundles

    • new mini-bundle from AT&T (T -0.5%) aimed at cord-cutters and cord-nevers will include broadband services, select basic cable channels, HBO, and Amazon Prime.
    • The service will be priced at an introductory rate of $40 per month for a year after which a strong upsell effort from the company would be expected.
    • A slimmed-down package from Dish Networks is expected to debut before the end of the year.
    • What to watch: Pay-TV industry executives have expressed confidence that the cheaper packages will attract new customers – instead of cannibalizing their base subscribers from the +$100/month level. It's a view not shared by some media analysts who warn of a new era of deal-hopping between pay-TV and broadband providers.
    • Related pay-TV stocks: DISHDTVCHTRCVCCMCSATWC.
    • Mexico has received its first bid from a consortium led by Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) and Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) to build its proposed $10B state-owned mobile network – an effort that will break the hold of Carlos Slim's America Movil (NYSE:AMX) on the industry.
    • If the consortium's bid wins, those companies could be key suppliers of mobile antennae and other gear as well as manage the network.
    • Mexico expects to pick a winner in mid-2015

    Ebola drug trials to be fast tracked in Africa

    • The Wellcome Trust, a global health charity, announces a ?3.2M ($5.25M) grant to fund clinical trials in West Africa for several experimental Ebola drugs, including products from Mapp Biopharmaceutical, Serepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT) and Tekmira (NASDAQ:TKMR). 
    • The charity's Director, Jeremy Farrar says, "It's a huge challenge to carry out clinical trials under such difficult conditions, but ultimately this is the only way we will ever find out whether any new Ebola treatments actually work."
    • In August, a WHO panel of experts unanimously agreed that the circumstances are exceptional and it would be ethical to deploy and test unregistered experimental treatments in an effort to help people stricken with Ebola infection.

  40. Any thoughts on oil for the week? 

  41. 1,120 testing again on /TF this time – be careful as it looks like it may fail this time! 

    Oil/Bruce – I prefer to wait for a nice run up into inventories to start shorting again.  At least a test of $92…

    Click for
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Nov'14 90.70 91.73 90.58 91.62 12:38
    Sep 23


    0.75 167356 90.87 309190 Call Put
    Dec'14 90.21 91.14 90.04 90.95 12:38
    Sep 23


    0.61 62214 90.34 220553 Call Put
    Jan'15 90.04 90.85 90.04 90.57 12:38
    Sep 23


    0.46 22684 90.11 91008 Call Put
    Feb'15 89.94 90.65 89.94 90.29 12:38
    Sep 23


    0.31 8269 89.98 42461 Call Put

    As you can see there's "only" 600,000 open barrels in the front 3 months, less than the 700K last month so, we can assume, less downside pressure.  Without negative news, they should be able to give it a lift on almost any excuse – so best to wait for them to make a play.  As we're now in the bottom of the big channel ($105-85) it's harder and harder to make short bets but, until we test $85 – I'm not too keen on making long ones either!  

  42. Bruce oil

    My 2 cents are I expect a build tomorrow, Iraqi oil is safer, and Russia is still being punished. A recovery of prices looks unlikely. 

  43. Phil // ABX
    I've holding ABX for quite a while. 
    Jan16 $17 puts ( $30 ) – even though they're in the money, would you let these 'stew' or roll them out into 2017 ?
    ( Also with a Jan16 $15-25 Bull Call ( $4.70 )

  44. Webinar time!!!

  45. Phil- There's an concept you explained I'm not quite following--

    Could you explain with an example the criteria you recommended about when to roll a spread ( something like "when the price equals spread..").

    What's the spread mentioned mean in this case? If you  illustrate with an example defining the terms ( I grasp what the price of each leg is) so we can see the logic.

    I have Yahoo:

    Jan '15 38/45 BullCallSpread
    Jan '16 40/50 one


  46. Phil or Greg / Webinar

    Has the Webinar started? I can only see the Disclosure page and no audio.

  47. IWM 111.4 11 month old top 1/2 that time bottom. The next stop would look more like 108 ish. FWIW

  48. Yodi // VIX
    Is it generally true you want to SELL calls when the VIX is high or low ?

  49. Hi Greg, I can;t seem to join the Webinar nor have access to audio. Can you help? thanks

  50. For the 5% rule we have just gone down 5% since this month's top and 10% would coincide with my 108 from the double tops March and July. I didn't use 5% rule to find my levels, but that is confluence a very powerful force.

  51. Wombat VIX If the VIX goes up is an indication of fear of the market going down So in general I do not sell calls even that the premium goes up a bit but in general the premium goes up on the put side So if you have sold puts they go strongly against you. I am talking from experience! On a down market it could be a good time to buy calls for a discount. In case of a BCS I am inclined to buy the call first in the hope for an upturn so you get a better price for the caller later on.

  52. Yodi // VIX
    Yes, that makes sense – if the VIX goes up extremely, short puts would increase their premium as the market goes down.
    So, in regards to my question, the opposite would be true ? When the market is dropping, the premium on short calls would drop. In other words, one should wait until a low VIX and/or market pop to SELL calls.
    The reason I ask is your mail yesterday when you said
    << and sell an other 20 Jan16 15calls but not on a day like today They might creep up .50 cents in stk value.>>

  53. Way over the top IMO.  For heavens sake, if Indians and Warriors are offensive are the Cowboys next ?  What about the Chiefs ?  The Vikings ?   Political correctness to the absurd extreme.  Get a life !

  54. VIX / Yodi – For a lot of people, the VIX effect is not intuitive. When the market goes down, the VIX goes up and premium go up as well. In that case, buying options might make more sense, in this case, buying puts. You have double the effect – stock goes down and premium goes up so technically speaking your puts should do much better. Of course, it's all in the timing. Now when the market goes up and VIX goes down, then premium evaporates and selling premium is better and then again, playing on the put side makes more sense – if you buy calls, the market goes in your direction but premium goes down as well. Selling puts benefits from both the market direction and the premium erosion. It seems that playing the put side in both cases makes the most sense. Like I said, not totally intuitive…

  55. StJ // Ha
    I can't believe I actually understood that ! Thanks.

  56. VIAB/ Phil    Do you have an opinion on Viacom?  2016 option premium looks decent.  Would the stock go up or down if something happens to Redstone?  I like content providers, and this seems to be a good one.

  57. Wombat Premium on calls are very much depending on the stock as well. Div paying stocks have lower premium. One can not always generalize but Low VIX lower premium. Specially when rolling callers I do not like to roll when the stock is losing as you lose on the new caller as well.

  58. albo:  The name changes you mention are already being considered.  The Vikings will be changed to the "Bay Men" and the "Chiefs" to the "CEOs".

  59. zero // Bay
    I think that was struck down and they settled on 'Bay Person'

  60. Wombat – At the same time, don't take that as a recommendation to buy premium… Timing is much more a factor when you buy premium that when you sell!

  61. ZZ & Wombat 8-)

  62. True, wommer, bite my tongue, old sexfacist that I've become!!!

  63. STJ VIX and premium it always depends on which side of the fence you are. When buying options you do not like to pay high premium on the opposit you you like the premium. So sure on a down market buying a but it good but you pay more premium for it. It really depends with what return you are satisfied.

  64. Correction buying a PUT

  65. c'mon Yodi – you telling us you've never bought a BUT before ? 

  66. No that is a BUD you should try some German beer.

  67. Talking about inflation the Octoberfest has started in München and they selling a Liter of beer for over 10€.

    These woman carry 10 mags and more in one shot. So that is over 100€ per throw.

  68. I see Phil should have stuck to the short /CL  at the seminar today. It is trying now to widdle up again.

  69. Hell bad spelling today they are MUGS I think

  70. Speaking of offensive team nicknames, I find calling a team from Utah, the Jazz to be as bad as any. Once out of New Orleans, that name just isn't right. Maybe in St. Louis it works, but that's it!

  71. Waiting until the dust has settled (I hope at least) YHOO Apr 15 BCS  32/40 @ 4.30 and sold the Put 35 @ 2.00.

  72. Correction again 32/39 BCS

  73. It is hard for Phil to trade futures during the webinars, because he has to react too quickly as an example and move to other topics. If he didn't close quickly and then moved on it could easily go the other direction and his teaching moment is a disaster. So I understand that. I needed patience today as I played short at 91.50 mid morning and had to wait til 3 pm to make some money today. 

    Instead of the futures I wish he would spend more time showing us how to value stocks so we know how to target good entry and exit points. I asked in a vague way, and he talked about studying financials and charts in a vague way. A whole webinar on that would achieve "the teach us to fish instead of giving us fish"  idea, but maybe it's too dull.

  74. I had to leave webinar early when my son came home from school. Is it still in progress?

  75. Thank goodness for Apple today, as it's propping up my portfolio performance today.

  76. Hi everyone, what do we have for a GMCR short?  it looks like it could maybe, possibly, think about breaking down.

  77. Son of a bitch!  I just lost all my comments.  This new version of Windows is so much less stable than my old one…  angry

  78. Phil / futures


    Yeah ..yeah..yeah,  but making clearer calls ( as today) is better for me…and perhaps somebody else will think the same.

    Just to remind you that making clear calls…and  results in futures is one of the best services  you can sell…..specially if you are increasing costs.

  79. Phil loosing windows

    There is something going around, others have commented the same while I have never lost one. The cut and paste is still wacco and no it doesn't happen except on PSW. 

  80. craig620 – Given the number of children they produce in Utah, they should have changed one letter of their teams name for a better fit.

  81. GMCR/rdn- What makes you think It is breaking down? Did Cramer recommend it? :)

  82. GMCR braking down – .16 in a down market is not braking down for a MOMO stock!!!!

  83. Craigs, I can't listen to Cramer's voice – GMCR - It's just hanging there below it's 5/20 moving averages, which make a good stop

  84. I lose my comments all the time on here, using my IPad too! Usually after spending lots of time working on it. I believe the relationship is proportional in that way, the more time you've spent working on a post the more likely to lose it before sending! Is that Murphy's law? The chances of a dropped piece of toast falling jelly side down grows as the cost of the carpet goes up? Same theory.

  85. The problem with GMCR is I can brew an eight cup pot for under $.30, they want a buck for one. Actually 24 cups and still pocket a dime.

  86. Rdn- I often leave CNBC on while working here just to get news. If my wife happens to be nearby and Cramer comes on she immediately makes me mute the TV, so I can relate. I am able to block it out.

  87. GMCR – ya, nothing beats my manual drip brew.

  88. craig

    Jelly goes down because it makes that side heavier, same with long posts, avoid both!

  89. Craig620:  Any post over a sentence or two I've taken to writing in word.  A single twitch of my flakey keyboard can eat a page of text, and where in hyperspace it ends up is not at all clear.

  90. I had such a good explanation for Sn0 too!   Sn0, please remind me later and I'll catch up.  

    5% correction, as noted by Shadow, is what we were expecting but it may go 10% as conditions are weak so we'll just have to see what kind of bounce we get off these 5% lines.  

    VIX/Wombat, Yodi – The VIX goes up generally when the market is going down.  That raises the premium on puts and calls but, of course, since the market is dropping the calls seem cheaper.  The best deal in a falling market with a spiking VIX is selling puts – as they have lots of premium and are increasing in price.  When the market is very high we sometimes do a Long Put List because the low VIX makes buying long puts a good deal as well.  

    VIAB/Stock – If they were cheaper I'd like them.  They're not a bad price at $77.75 but $65 would be much nicer and, given what I've seen re competition for content and declining ad rates.  When 2017s come out, maybe a short put sale will be interesting.

  91. Shadow- that is so true. I went to Italy a couple of years ago and got in the habit of drinking espresso and cappuccino, so I bought a Tassimo machine, but the cost per cup is ridiculous and I stopped using it. Same idea as GMCR, but Tassimo has horrific distribution and their mail service sucks taking up to two weeks. I complained and they basically told me to pound sand. Not exactly building customer loyalty there. I drink tea now, f em all!

  92. I don't know what you all have against Cramer he makes such a good payaso. Regret I can not humor him here in Germany, At least I don't know which channel to find him.

  93. Listening to Cramer's hysterics is like putting a cheese grater against your face.  Fortunately, I haven't seem him in years, since we have no U.S. TV channels here, and I've never tried to find him on the internet, strangely enough.

  94. Phil / lost posts

    I ALWAYS type my letters and comments directly on a text editor (Word, Notepad, etc.) and I copy and paste into the browser. I then edit it as needed and submit. That way I don’t send partial posts accidentally nor do I lose my comments.

  95. Shadow, I still believe it's the cost of the carpet, even though your explanation makes sense, mine is funnier. 

  96. ZZ – You're on your game today. ;-)

  97. /CL/Yodi – Well it's been up and down, now $91.60 – no big moves.  I'm sticking to my guns and hoping for $92.50 tomorrow to short. 

    Jazz/Craigs – Haven't you ever heard a Mormon Jazz Band?  Those cats really know how to swing!  

    Valuing stocks/Craigs – That's something easier to do in chat, I think.  I have gone into valuations on Webinars before – it takes a long time and we can't do things over and over again.  Try asking on the weekend and we can go through some basic steps but there are also plenty of books on how to value a company.

    GMCR/Rdn – We've been short on them for ages and they are finally coming back down. I'm looking for $110 but we have the Jan $125 puts in the STP that we bought for $7.75, now $7 but it was part of a spread where we bought back the short puts so doing well at that price.


    Terrible finish – /ES with a big sell into the close!  

  98. craig

    Agreed cost of carpet for some, I have none so what then? In my kitchen I have a grip surface tile that destroys anything you use to clean it up. Hardwood doesn't attract anything but gravel to scratch it.

  99. GMCR – Thanks Phil – I tried to get into a 125 put calendar but the spreads were too wide, just like the air pockets that will be under that thing when it finally goes.

  100. Coffee

    I always consider running costs when I’m about to make a purchase, so I bought a Krups espresso machine with built-in grinder. I buy the coffee grains I like with the roasting I prefer and it is WAY cheaper. You recoup the price of the machine in less than a year (at least I did).

  101. Back to AAPL saves the NASDQ. Selling after the bell. Neither are healthy.

  102. Calls/Advill – OK – deal!  If you pay the higher rates, I promise to make clearer calls!  cheeky

    Windows/Shadow – Yeah in Chrome I just get an "Oops" window all of a sudden and all my writing is lost. 

    LOL Craigs – good toast theory!  

    Hyperspace/ZZ – I think that's where all my pens went in college too.  And socks – where the hell are all those other socks?  

    Posts/Akad – I doesn't happen enough for me to want to jump through hoops but, when it does – I do want to kill someone.  Since I am usually so relaxed though – I think the occasional tension does me good…

    You're welcome RDN.  They keep getting saved so far and KO is an investor so they get to make little announcements re. their partnership that keeps people in but I don't see earnings living up to these high expectations (late Nov).  

    AAPL had a good day but it didn't help the Nas too much (-0.4%).  

    And what Shadow said.  

  103. Hyperspace/ zz & Phil

    Didn't you know socks and pens are used to power Hyperloops in other dimensions?  How ignorant can you all be?

  104. /TF
    Nickel and dimed it all day. +1350
    I'm going outside.

  105. Data Breaches
    wow – very cool

  106. From Bloomberg, Sep 22, 2014, 2:39:03 PM

    Photographer: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

    The biggest climate protest in history kicked off a week of debate, disruption and aspiration in New York. Here are the latest updates:

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  107. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 5:13:49 PM

    Islamist rebels from ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) on the outskirts of the northern city of Aleppo, Syria, in this July 4, 2013 file photo. Photographer: Daniel Leal-Olivas/Corbis

    The bombing of Islamic State militants is being carried out by the broadest Arab-U.S. military coalition since the 1991 Gulf War.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  108. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 11:53:45 AM

    Tim Cook (R), president and CEO of Apple, Inc., discusses the interaction between business and climate with Christina Figueres, the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), during a New York City Climate Week event on Sept. 22, 2014. Photographer: Michael Graae/Getty Images

    Tim Cook is the most important person at the world’s biggest company, which just had its biggest product launch in history. Yesterday he was in New York to talk about one thing: climate change.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  109. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 10:13:12 AM

    Photographer: Chris Cheadle/Getty Images

    With interest rates barely above zero, the typical U.S. savings account has all the excitement of, well, waiting in line at the bank. But what if instead of marketing yet another CD or credit card, banks held raffles and gave millions away each month to savers? The local bank might feel less like the villain behind those big overdraft fees and more like a casino on the Vegas strip.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  110. Not sure we can look for support around the 50 DMA since clearly that didn't work so well last time. In any case, NYSE and Russell already through that. The Russell is really the sick index here already closing on the lows of August while the other indices have some ways to go (2.5 to 3%). To keep things in perspective though, the market cap of the Russell 2000 is a very small portion of the entire market. But as I have posted before, other indices like the Nasdaq are propped up by a very small sub-set of the index so maybe there is something there.

  111. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 4:21:12 PM

    Apple’s iOS 8 operating system causes apps to crash about 3.6 percent of the time, or 78 percent more than last year’s version, according to a report by Crittercism Inc., an analytics firm that works with companies such as EBay Inc., Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s latest software update for the iPhone and iPad tablet is causing popular applications made by Facebook Inc., Dropbox Inc. and others to crash more frequently, according to a report.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  112. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 9:43:08 AM

    Lemons are displayed at the Los Angeles Wholesale Produce Market in Los Angeles, California, U.S.. Photographer: Konrad Fiedler/Bloomberg

    First it was the surge in beef prices, and then seafood went through the roof. Now you can add lemons to the growing list of ingredients cutting into profit on the menu at Joe’s Seafood, Prime Steak & Stone Crab.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  113. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 12:35:46 PM

    Hedge funds are stepping in to fill
    a vacuum in Venezuela’s bonds as deepening concern the nation
    will default triggers an investor exodus.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  114. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 3:56:19 PM

    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
    President James Bullard said the central bank may need to drop
    its pledge next month to keep interest rates low as so-called
    quantitative easing is brought to a close.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  115. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 3:20:28 PM

    Carolyn Wilkins, senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, speaks during an interview in Toronto, Canada, on Sept. 23, 2014. Photographer: Galit Rodan/Bloomberg

    Bank of Canada Senior Deputy
    Governor Carolyn Wilkins said employment growth that’s about
    half of what’s required for recovery is a clear sign that slack
    is persisting in the world’s 11th largest economy, suggesting
    low interest rates are still needed.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  116. From Bloomberg, Sep 23, 2014, 5:29:21 AM

    History suggests that the corporate
    bond market will be just fine when the Federal Reserve starts
    raising interest rates next year. Citigroup Inc. says investors
    shouldn’t be so sure this time.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  117. SFL/Phil – harder times ahead or the financial champs that will keep going with their 9.3% dividend?

  118. SLW/mrm – about time to sell puts again.. !

  119. FT -Last updated: September 23, 2014 5:49 pm
    Banks face fresh curbs on leveraged loans
    By Tracy Alloway in New York and Gina Chon in Washington

    Fed isn't "tightening" through it's rates but is giving "guidance" to what it considers overleveraged companies.  So, actual tightening has begun,  beyond "we're going to raise rates one day".  The first shot across the bow.  Long TLT, short TNA?  Phase in and out, respectively? Relax and buy Apple?  I can't seem to remember much about the last bear market.

  120. HCLP – looks like a Grade-A Cramer hatchet job: "Hi-Crush Partners (HCLP) slipped on Tuesday after Jim Cramer issued a warning on sand producers and suppliers, who are essential to the oil and gas fracking industry … at the end of the day, this stuff is just sand and sand is plentiful … oil drillers could easily find a replacement for sand if it becomes too expensive."

  121. Hi Phil

    I have 50 contracts of AAPL October 85/100 BCS, now approximately $13.90 at bid and ask prices on both sides.

    Keep them for another 4 weeks for another $1.10 or close them and go in for ? With the money I get?

    And no, I don't want to be greedy bastard necessarily, but it's worth $5500 to wait.

  122. Maya – if in doubt…

  123. SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning! 

    Very strange action with Hang Seng up 0.57% and Shanghai up 1.30% and no news that I see, even though they've been straight up since the open.  This is strange to the point where even the headlines haven't caught up yet:

    China Stocks Drop After Goldman Sachs Cuts Growth Target. China’s stocks fell after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for China’s economic growth and a logistics company said its unit defaulted. Wanhua Chemical Group Co. paced declines by industrial companies. Goldman Sachs reduced its 2015 target to 7.1 percent from 7.6 percent, while keeping this year’s estimate unchanged at 7.3 percent. Anhui Wanjiang Logistics Group Co. said its unit had debts of 2.1 billion yuan ($337 million) of debts due. Shares in the company are suspended. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) lost 0.1 percent to 2,306.94 at 9:45 a.m., while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed 0.3 percent from a two-month low.

    Asian Stocks Extend Losses Amid Yen Advance; Kiwi Rallies. Asian stocks fell, with the regional index headed for its lowest close in more than three months, as the yen rallied following a Japanese holiday and after a selloff in U.S. equities. New Zealand’s dollar rose from a one-year low amid a smaller-than-estimated trade deficit.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.2 percent by 9:57 a.m. in Tokyo, dropping a third day as Japan’s Topix index retreated 0.3 percent from its Sept. 22 close?

    • Asian Shares Fall on Growth Frets

      Stocks were mostly lower in Asia, with losses in Tokyo and Australia after the U.S. market weakened overnight amid worries about global economic growth.

    • Yen rises after Abe reportedly says watching impact of yen weaknessThe dollar fell to as low as 108.46 yen from around 108.75 yen on Wednesday after the Jiji news service reported Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe saying he would carefully watch the impact of the yen's recent weakness on Japanese regional economies. 

    The only good news I see is that same 50.5 vs 50.2 PMI Improvement so I'd say this is a government-sponsored rally with the IMF making some statement (I heard on Bloomberg) that China should still grow over 7%. 

    China's Factories Pick Up Steam

    EWJ WEEKLYThe Nikkei is down 0.25% near the close, at 16,125, India and Singapore are flat. 

    Europe, on the other hand, is looking flat in the Futures after being down 1.5% yesterday (we'd be looking for a 0.3% weak or 0.6% strong bounce).  Our Futures are up 0.2% at the moment at 16,992, 1,976, 4,045 and 1,113 with the Dollar at 84.80 (you can't keep a good currency down), oil $91.67, gold $1,224, silver $17.79, copper $3.05, nat gas $3.84 and gasoline $2.62.

    The API report once again shows a strong draw on oil – this time 6.5Mb but not much affect on oil yet as they've been wrong (or lying, take your pick) for the last month or so.  Gasoline was down 86,000 barrels and distillates were up 3Mb so call it net down 3.5Mb and anything less than that at 10:30 will be a disappointment for oil traders.  No change in our plan to short at $92.50 (if we get there).

    Most Americans Believe We're Still In A Recession

    GaveKal Goes Looking For Black Swans, Finds A Soaring Skew

    How The Fed 'Broke' The Markets (In 2 Simple Charts)

    The Fed's Credit Channel Is Broken And Its Bathtub Economics Has Failed

    The Fed Kills Emerging Markets For Profit

    When The New Normal Fails: The "Problem With Traditional Economics" In A Bizarro, Centrally-Planned World


    Risky leveraged loans may affect banks in stress test – FTThe U.S. Federal Reserve is warning banks that lending for deals that load up companies with too much debt could impact its assessment of banks' loan loss rates in the next stress test, the Financial Times reported.

    Corn Has Been Getting Crushed

    Canadian fertilizer companies brace for fall in U.S. crop pricesCanadian fertilizer companies Potash Corp of Saskatchewan and Agrium Inc are bracing for a pullback in demand from U.S. farmers due to sliding crop prices, but say any slump is unlikely to be severe. 

  124. And Here's a Guy Bending an iPhone 6 Plus With His Bare Hands

    CEOs Get Paid Too Much, According to Pretty Much Everyone in the World

    Actual Kansas State Press Release

    With zombies still the topic of many hit television shows and movies, preparing for the zombie apocalypse remains a concern for some. The Kansas of Division of Emergency Management is utilizing the popularity of zombies to encourage all Kansans to prepare for an emergency.?

    Governor Sam Brownback will sign a proclamation designating October as Zombie Preparedness Month Sept. 26 at 11 a.m. in the Governor’s Ceremonial Office in the Kansas Statehouse.

    "If you’re prepared for zombies, you’re prepared for anything," is the theme of Zombie Preparedness.?

    "If you’re equipped to handle the zombie apocalypse then you’re prepared for tornadoes, severe storms, fire and any other natural disaster Kansas usually faces," said Devan Tucking.

    Report: Heroin Is Cheaper Than Beer in Pennsylvania

    According to an investigative report published Tuesday, heroin is easier to access than wine and cheaper to purchase than a six-pack of beer in Pennsylvania.

    Many have speculated that the drug's low cost and widespread availability are major factors in the state's staggeringly high overdose rates. The Center for Rural Pennsylvania's report shows that in rural areas during 2011, 13 of every 100,000 deaths were overdoses, up from one per 100,000 in 1990.

    State Representative Richard Marabito, a Democrat, said Pennsylvania has about 760,000 residents with addiction problems, but that only about 52,000 are receiving treatment. Only one in eight addicts can be helped with existing state resources, the report said.

    Flooding Risk From Climate Change, Country by Country

    Kochs, ALEC Threaten Campus Democracy at Florida State, US Universities

    Students, faculty, alumni, and the Tallahassee community have mounted a campaign of protests, disruptions, petitions, letters, and a proposal for a reset of the process in response to the increasingly clear reality that FSU’s Presidential Search Advisory Committee (PSAC) has been rigged to select former Florida Republican Senator John Thrasher, described as “one of the most powerful Republican politicians in Florida history,” as FSU’s next president.

    The FSU community has been staunchly opposing Thrasher’s candidacy for president because he is, by almost all standards normally applied to university presidents, a terrible candidate for the job.

  125. O NO Phil will talk Klartext ???????????? Did already given up on that. It is actually cost saving to express yourself  to buy  (I like!!!! ) or  to sell once, than answer the same questions twice. Delays the placing orders or even placing the wrong order. Advill you might even get a discount for time saving "ideas" for the writer.

    September 23rd, 2014 at 4:10 pm | Permalink Tweet thisIgnore this user

    Calls/Advill – OK – deal!  If you pay the higher rates, I promise to make clearer calls!  

  126. Oil almost $92.   This is why I want to retire in Europe, this would be a nice, normal breakfast time.  I wonder if I'll still wake up at 3am though?  

    Nice data breach chart Wombat – also very scary.  Looks like we've all had our info stolen 3 or 4 times over. 

    Polaroid/ZZ – Wow, those are nice!  

    The Cube with monkey stands


    I hope Rustle got his short in.  

    Big Chart – Well, we still have to respect the 5% Rule and expect those 1% bounces (weak), at least.  That goes for the RUT and NYSE, while the others are down 2.5% so we'll look for 0.5% weak bounces.  If we don't get those, THEN more likely we drop to 5% but I'm thinking the move over the -2.5% line on the Dow was a spike and we will see -5% at 16,720 along with 4,400 on the Nas and 1,942.50 on S&P – unless there is further CB meddling between now and then (and when isn't there?).  

    /TF already tested 1,110 last night, now 1,114.

    SFL/Scott – BDI has been holding up so far so SFL should do OK but subject to damage from rising rates.  I sure wouldn't buy them after that crazy pop but, if they ever get back down to the $20s, they are very interesting.  

    Last bear market/ZZ – I think you may be struggling from PTSD on that one.  TLT spiked in the last crash but came back down very quickly, it's a very tricky bet but generally I like the channel between 120 and 90, which they are high in at 115.  Short TNA not a bad idea but already down from 85 to 66.  If you want to speculate, long TZA is less likely to kill you, since at least it's got a floor you can count on.  

    HCLP/Scott – I don't disagree, it's like the potash craze a while back (2006ish) – it's not rare, it's just that not too many people are bothering to supply it, so there was a rally but expectations got way ahead of reality.  

    AAPL/Maya – Well, you are risking 92.6% to make 7.4%.  Are you 92.6% sure AAPL will be over $100 in another month?  And, if so, why not just sell the Oct $100 puts for $1.08 instead – it's essentially the same play?  We do have a rule of thumb for that – we take 85% gains off the table if they come more than two weeks to expiration and 70% gains off the table a month from expiration and 50% gains off the table if they come more than a month before expiration (at least setting very tight stops).  

    The problem with holding your long is:  What will you do if AAPL drops $3 overnight to $99 and your spread drops to $12.50?  Will you then take that off the table or will you become trapped – crossing your fingers and praying to get back to $13.90?  What if it keeps going down?  When will you stop the pain?  That's your real risk – your own stop loss may trigger in between, even if your premise is sound.   AAPL went up $1.50 yesterday so clearly it can go up or down $1.50 a day.  Up would be lovely but down a few days would be tragic.  Again, are you really 92.6% certain and, even if you are – that's only an even-money play, you should really be 100% certain to make this risk worthwhile.  And, as Scott wisely says, "When in doubt, sell half!"  

    Dowry/Nicha – That's great!  I wonder what I can get for my girls? cheeky 

  127. See, Yodi's in Europe, he's awake…

  128. I did have already breakfast but /CL at 91.80 not 92

  129. Some people sleep walk)8

  130. Phil / Futures:


    Ok,   it´s a …..Deal!!!

  131. Phil,

    I have a small gain from the TZA Dec. $14/$17 BCS hedge. Would you recommend taking that off the table or let it ride since the market (especially the Russell) continues to show weakness?

  132. Oil back to $91.44 now, very weak considering the API numbers. 

    Indexes up a bit still with Europe making huge comeback from a bad open.  FTSE flat, DAX flat, CAC + 0.5%, Italy up 0.66% and Spain down 0.3%.  

    We're at 17,000, 1,977, 4,049 and 1,117 and waiting to see if our lines get crossed.  

    The Obama administration said it had expanded its air campaign in Syria to strike at an al Qaeda-linked group that was planning terrorist attacks in the U.S. and Europe.

    Iron-ore prices are down 40% this year, but it isn't because of China. Instead, an Australian-led surge in production has left the industry with too much supply even for China's massive steel industry to absorb.

    • India Court Cancels Coal Blocks

      India's Supreme Court ordered the cancelation of almost all coal mining licenses the country has issued since 1993, potentially creating uncertainty about supplies for the industries using the fuel. 6:01 AM

  133. TZA/Sibe – If you still need a hedge, I'd keep it on.  If the RUT fails to hold 1,110, we should see $17+ on TZA but I do doubt it will be so bad that it holds through Dec – it's just a hedge, IN CASE the market goes lower but, as a bet, I don't have too much faith in it.  

  134. AAPL/Phil- have you read the stories this morning about the Iphone 6 Plus bending in peoples pockets. This seems to be picking up steam as the story is giving Apple bashers something to really sink their teeth into. Is this something that is worrisome to you as an Apple investor or is it just more noise.

  135. Phil- Thanks on the TZA advice.  Here is a trade idea for when the time is right.  UTX is down a bit now and the Jan 16 $100/$110 BCS is $4.92 on the $10 spread.  You can sell the $90 puts for $4.28 making the overall cost $0.64.  Your thoughts on this would also be appreciated.

  136. AAPL/Craigs – Yes, I posted an article on that above.  As an AAPL customer, I certainly know not to put my IPad in my pocket as sitting on it would certainly be fatal.  The same would go for the mini.  BUT, AAPL is selling the 6+ as a phone and I suppose people have assumptions for phones – one of which being that it's a thing you put in your pocket.  On the other hand, the same exact thing happens to Galaxy Notes if you bend them and they have been selling for a year or so, so I don't think it's a big issue but that won't stop they hyenas from attacking and taking AAPL down a bit.  

    UTX/Sibe – I'd make sure they hold $105 first.  Certainly not when the broad market is weak but I do like UTX in general.   

  137. Phil; Please restate the futures lines.  Particularly your thoughts on /YM 17000.  Thx

  138. AAPL/Phil- I thought the same thing as you said, but wanted your take that this wasn't some fatal flaw they uncovered that would be a significant issue. The bozos who comment on this stuff are saying Tim Cook should be fired for bringing a flawed product to market. Of course they are not exactly like smaller phones. Put enough pressure on anything and it will break. Thanks for helping me sort out the noise.

  139. Phil / PFE Question:


    I have a % of portfolio important position in PFE, trying to use them to be the house….I´ve been looking to sell some puts against the position but puts in a reasonable period are just cents…..what do you recommend?

  140. Phil / same question


    Basically the idea could be trying to get some money while maintaining  long term stock positions  some as 




  141. Phil/aapl

    Thank you for that confirmation.

    Got out of the spreads with stock at $102… Now will see if Jan spreads look interesting at some point. 

    Dang, this new iOS8- the cursor keeps going back to the beginning when I hit 'enter' 

    Again! Frustrating! Anyone else having same problem since upgrading or iOS8 on the ipad?

  142. Aapl/iph 6    

    So far, not impressed with the 6. A little too big to handle with one hand…Plus, some apps are acting funny.

    the darn thing is slippery, easily dropped because of the rounded edges. I preferred the brick shape of the 5S.

    Looks and feels like a Samsung, or HTC OR whatever phone you want to compare. 

    Anyone else with their thoughts?



    I think I will be going back to the 5S after a few days.