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Posts Tagged ‘IBM’

Tempting Tuesday – Low Volume Rally Challenges Our Bounce Lines

RUT WEEKLYIt LOOKS impressive, doesn't it?  

As I said to our Members this morning in our Live Chat Room, all is going according to plan, as we expected to see strong bounces in our indexes by Wednesday – no matter what news or earnings turned out to be.  If the powers that be want the market to bounce – it bounces.  

Our general rule of thumb is that dip buyers only learn their lesson after they have been burned 3 times and, so far, only the August dip buyers are being relly burned but a failure to retake that line and a move lower – that might get them to think twice about mounting another rescue effort next time we test 1,050 on the Russell.  

On this next chart, you can see how the various Fed speakers were used at key inflection points to guide the markets exactly where they wanted them to go.  

As you can see from this S&P chart with Fed notes attached, the manipulation we told you about on 10/6 (see: "Market Mayhem – 12 Fed Speeches in 5 Days Causes Chaos") is merely playing out according to plan and this is why we were able to take full advantage of both the dip (see: "Money-Making Monday: How to Profit from a Market Correction") and the bounce (see: "Wednesday Market Weakness – Oil Collapses to $80, Good or Bad?").

In fact, the TNA Oct $58/60.50 bull call spread that we pointed out last Wednesday at $1.12 closed on Friday morning at $2.40 – up a very nice 114% in 48 hours for those of you who get our morning newsletter (which you can subscribe to here).  Our suggested roll to the Nov $56/63 bull call spread at $3 still has to play out but, so far, we're at $4, so up 33% in 4 trading days is "on track" towards our planned 133% gain in 30 more days.  

This is how rich people get richer folks – if you are in the top 1%, the Fed is out there working for us –
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Which Way Wednesday – IBM/AAPL Deal Boost Markets

Did you make your $1,000 yesterday? 

You would have if you read yesterday's morning post (subscribe here), where we picked the Russell Futures (/TF) short at 1,160 saying: "If the Russell FAILS 1,160, we'll be happy to flip short for another ride down to 1,150."  As you can see, we had plenty of time to get our planned entry at 1,160 and, as we expected, Yellen's speech disappointed and the markets sold off a bit – easy money!  

RUT WEEKLYWe even flipped back to bullish in the afternoon and, at the beginning of our Live Webinar (1pm), we were able to demionstrate a very quick $250 profit taking the Russell Futures long off that same 1,150 line.  In fact, you can see the big volume spike that came with our live call right on the chart! 

This morning, news of a deal between AAPL and IBM has both companies showing 2% gains pre-market.  For IBM, that's $5 and that's adding 40 points to the Dow Futures (/YM) pre-market and for AAPL, that's $2 and AAPL is 20% of the Nasdaq so 20% of 2% is 0.4% added to the Nasdaq from AAPL alone pre-market plus a nice effect on the S&P from both of those heavyweight stocks.

Under the agreement, IBM's employees will provide on-site support and service of Apple products inside companies, similar to the AppleCare service that Apple sells to consumers.  IBM said it planned to make more than 100,000 employees available to the Apple initiative. It is a rare partnership for Apple, which historically has avoided such alliances.  

"This is just the beginning," said Ms. Rometty, citing a statistic that most smartphones inside companies are used only for email and calendar. She said the companies hope to create new, serious business applications.

The companies said Apple and IBM engineers are together developing more than 100 new apps for various industries. The first batch of apps is expected to be available in the fall when Apple releases the next version of its mobile software, iOS 8.  "Apple is not an
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America About to Turn 238 – Rally Turns 2.5

Happy Birthday America! 

The markets are closed tomorrow and today is a half day but the trend is certainly our friend on the S&P as we haven't been below the 200 day moving average since December of 2011 (except a couple of very brief dips).  Though the average volume is about 30% lower than it was back then – it's still an impressive feat.  

Of course, if 10% of the market was manipulated before and the manipulators haven't left (they certainly haven't) – even if the level of manipulation remained the same, 30% of the 90% that wasn't manipulated (retail investors) did leave (possibly BECAUSE of the manipulation) and that means now manipulators control 10% of the remaining 70%, a 42% increase in manipulation!  Of course we know it's much worse than that because now the Central Banksters perform their own brand of market manipulation.  As noted by Salient Partners in a great article about PBOC Manipulation:

The explicit purpose of recent monetary policy is: to paper over anemic real economic growth with financial asset inflation. It’s a brilliant political solution to the political problem of low growth in the West, because our political stability does not depend on robust real economic growth. So long as we avoid outright negative growth (and even that’s okay so long as it can be explained away by “the weather” or some such rationale) and prop up the financial asset values that in turn support a levered system, we can very slowly grow or inflate our way out of debt. Or not. The debt can hang out there … forever, essentially … so long as there’s no exogenous shock. A low-growth zombie financial system where credit is treated as a government utility is a perfectly stable outcome in the West. 

So China has indeed learned the most valuable lesson of Capitalism – that money is a meaningless contstruct that can be freely manipulated to fit whatever narrative the Government wishes to spin and that debt is not to be feared, but embraced, especially by our Corporate Masters – because our National Debt becomes their Private Profits!  


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The Buy List – 20 Great Trade Ideas for the Rest of 2014 (Members Only)

INDU WEEKLYWhat a rally!  

While stocks certainly aren't "cheap" by any measure, we've been able to identify 20 that are still good values.  We've been compiling this list and going over trade ideas for playing them in our Tuesday Webinars since May 13th and, of course, we've been posting them in our Live Member Chat rooms, so this is just a review to consolidate our trade ideas.  

We cashed in our Long-Term Portfolio last week at what we thought was a top but so far – so wrong on that call!  Since it's up 19% in just 6 months, we're not going to cry about missing the last 400-point move on the Dow (2.5%) – we'll just have to look ahead to deploying our cash again, following the same strategy that was so successful in the first half of the year, which was, essetially, our "7 Steps to Consistently Making 20-40% Annual Returns" system:

As we did in building our Long-Term Portfolio, we're not going to rush in and buy everything.  We will do exactly what we did in January where, following our Fall Buy List, we simply added stocks from our list whenever they became cheap.  While our Members are able to pick up our trade ideas as they are released, we don't always add them to our virtual portfolios right away.  As with the first half's Long-Term Portfolio, we will track every entry and exit in both our Live Weekly Webcasts, as well as in our Live Member Chat Room and alerts will be sent to our subscribers (you can join here, Basic and Premium Members get full access).  

Our picks were originally grouped by industry sectors but, for reference purposes, I'm going to list them alphabetically below – these are the original trade ideas (the Webinar dates where we discussed our picks are next to the symbol), most are still playable but some have already taken off :

ABX (5/28) we featured in our June 3rd post - obviously one I like.  If you don't want to buy the stock for $15.90 (and we NEVER pay retail at PSW!), then you can sell the 2016 $15 puts for $2.05,
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Thrill is Gone Thursday – Rally Tired or Just Resting?

EU leaders are meeting in Brussels today and tomorrow

For anyone who's been paying attention for the last two years – that's usually not a good thing and, as we noted yesterday, it was a strong Euro and a weak Dollar that was driving our little rally.  The Dollar bottomed out at 79 and the Euro topped out at $1.314 and the Euro's strength sent the Yen back up to 79.30 to the Dollar (weaker) and that led to a 2% Nikkei rally last night.  As you can see from the chart on the right, the S&P for the week is 1% behind UK and Germany and 2.5% behind France and Italy (+4%) and Spain (+7%) – so we have a lot of catching up to do if this rally is real and sustainable

Still, I sent out an Alert to Members early this morning noting that the Global Markets were holding up well as of 6am and that was encouraging.  Yesterday we discussed taking advantage of the run-up in the Russell to make a TZA hedge to lock in some of our gains (see main post) but we still haven't covered XLF (target $16.50 – see Dave Fry's chart) and we're still bullish on AAPL as well.  We cashed that ISRG play, as planned for $9 on the spreads (200x = $1,800), spending .30 x 200 ($60) to buy back the callers so that, with the $200 we were paid to take the position is just short of our $2,000 goal at net $1,960 – not bad for a day's "work".  

In Member Chat this morning, we discussed GOOG's outlook for earnings this evening and decided they were more likely topping than popping so we have that risk to the Nasdaq for tomorrow.  IBM was an 80-point drag on the Dow yesterday but it did manage to finish flat and advancers led decliners on the NYSE by 2:1 so the conditions are still there for a rally and hopefully what we have here a a pause that refreshes and not a triple top from the mid-September highs.  

The Nasdaq and the Russell are, in fact, in downtrending channels and, for the Nasdaq, their fate rests on GOOG tonight and AAPL next Thursday – but it's still a long way back to the highs at 3,200.  

As you can see from the
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Dollar Dives to 79, Futures Flat

Let's not make this more complicated than it needs to be

A weak Dollar lifts the markets and, this morning, the Dollar fell from 79.50 at yesterday's close to 79 at 6:45 and that's why, despite earnings disappointments from both INTC and IBM, the Futures are up slightly 3 hours before the open.  As you can see from the chart on the right, to say there's a strong inverse correlation between the Dollar and the S&P is quite the understatement.  Over the longer run – the effect tends to wash out but, over the short run, it's an almost perfect match.  

Of course, this also has a very direct effect on commodity pricing and part of the reason for the Dollar's big sell-off last night was the much-better-than-last-time performance of Barack Obama in the second Presidential Debate as the future of the Fed and all that free money hangs in the balance.  

After the first debate, two weeks ago, Romney clearly won and has made it known that he will kick both Big Bird and Big Ben to the curb as soon as he gets in office – that sent the Dollar up from 79.10 to 80.21 (up 1.4%) last week and dropped the S&P from 1,460 to 1,430 (2%).  After last night, Romney looks to be back off the table and that leaves the Dollar to resume it's downward slope – giving another lift to the markets.  

At the same time, Moody's left Spain's credit rating above junk this morning and that's lifting the Euro to $1.31 and the Pound is moving in lock-step at $1.61 BUT the Yen dropped 0.5% to 78.63 and it's not likely the BOJ will let the Dollar slip below 79 as that makes Toyotas and Sonys more expensive just ahead of the holidays.  Also, the Nikkei finally got back to 8,850 last night and you know they hate to lose that line.  

So get set for some heavy-duty Global Market Manipulation by our Central Banksters as everyone but Europe tries to race for the bottom.  Europe, interestingly enough, doesn't mind a strong currency as they are fuel and goods importers and most of the goods they export are "luxury" class and less susceptible to currency fluctuations.  With strong intra-zone trading the backbone of the EU economy, it doesn't matter where the Euro is trading from that perspective either and, of
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Wednesday Worries – AAPL Makes $76,103 While You Read This

$76,103 – That's not sales, that's profit!  

Every minute of every day, AAPL is making $76,103 (at $40Bn a year) on the sale of $316,120 worth of products.  No company on Earth comes close to that kind of metric and, overall, the stock's performance clearly indicates that but, if you listen to the MSM, you would think AAPL is finished.

We had a nice, in-depth discussion about AAPL in Member Chat this morning and we not only concluded it's still a buy but we came up with a lovely spread that has the potential to turn $3,000 into $45,000 between now and Jan 2015 if AAPL simply holds $600 – needless to say we're very proud of that as it's always nice to have a trade or two in your portfolio that returns 1,500% and we rarely get a chance to do them with a blue-chip stock like AAPL.  

Note in the above chart, that AAPL is still a relative outperformer this year – shown priced against HPQ, DELL, INTC, IBM, CAT and ISRG – all good companies that have simply failed to keep up.  We also like HPQ at this level, now $14.30 as their REDUCED guidance has them earning $3.62 per share next year after earning $4.05 this year and that's still 25% back on your money, which sure beats TBills and we're not even counting the $18Bn in cash they have on hand, which is quite a lot when you consider that their entire market cap is now just $28Bn.  Small wonder HPQ spent $9Bn buying back their own stock last year, when it was priced 100% higher. 

HPQ is a pretty good candidate for a buy/write, where we Buy the stock for $14.30 and Write 2014 $15 puts and calls (sell short) for $5.50 and that nets $8.80 on the trade and, if HPQ is below $15 in Jan 2014, then another round of shares will be put to you at $15 for an average entry on 2x of $11.90, which is 17% below the current price and, if HPQ is over $15 in 16 months, then you get called away at $15 for a $6.20 profit on cash (75%).  Buy/writes are our favorite tools for making long-term entries – see "How to Buy a Stock for a 15-20% Discount."

As we mentioned INTC in the above chart, let's look at a similar…
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Friday Failure – Weak Bounce Levels Turn Into Resistance

Resistance is, unfortunately, not futile for our indices.  

On Monday we discussed our expectations for a 2% weak bounce for the week, which would be a 20% retrace of the 10% drop I had predicted we'd have way back (and a bit early) in March.  That constitutes a WEAK bounce and not a rally and they almost fooled us on Monday by taking back most of that 2% on day one but, since then – it's been pathetic and we've essentially done nothing the rest of the week.  

The levels we were looking for were laid out in Monday's Member Chat and in Tuesday morning's post and were:

  • Dow – 12,750 (12,540 is 20% retrace/weak bounce), now 12,529 – off by 11
  • S&P – 1,343 (1,319), now 1,320 – off by 1
  • Nas – 2,900 (2,840) , now 2,839 – off by 1
  • NYSE – 7,720 (7,560), now 7,552 – off by 8 
  • RUT – 780, (765), now 766


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Free-Falling Thursday – Facebook Faces Fatal Friday Follow-Through

What a week to do an IPO!

Will Facebook save the markets tomorrow with a successful roll-out of the largest IPO of all time or will it be the straw that breaks the camel's back, with a disappointing open that sends the Nasdaq off a cliff along with their entire over-priced sector?  Either way – this is going to be fun.

We can argue the merits of Facebook's value (or lack thereof) all day long but, scam or not, it's very likely FB will set off a buying frenzy in the space and we finish the week off with a bang. If that doesn't happen – I will be very, very bearish but from what I'm hearing and the way they are extending the offer and raising the price – it's way oversubscribed.  Also, we have to consider that people are cashing out 1-5% of their holdings to raise cash for FB on Friday – sure it's moronic, but that's what people do so you have to put yourself in a position of someone who wants to put 5% of your portfolio in to Facebook (the way you wish you had put 5% into Google at $80 when they IPO'd) tomorrow – what would you be doing with the rest of your portfolio today?  

EZU WEEKLYMeanwhile, the rest of the World is falling apart with Europe turning sharply lower as Spain sells bonds at record high yields (5.106% for 4-year notes) this morning after announcing that their Q1 GDP was -0.4% at the same time as Moody's indicates they will be cutting the credit ratings of 21 Spanish Banks this evening AND, to top it all off – there is a run on Bankia, which Spain nationalized last week – with $1.3Bn pulled from accounts this past week!  This sent Spain's markets down 1.6% and Italy (who is next) fell 2%, sending the Euro down 1% to $1.2668 and the Pound followed it down to $1.5832 (while EUR/CHF holds steady at 1.2009 in the most blatant currency manipulation ever witnessed).

Wow – that's a lot of bad stuff!  Maybe too many bad things – as in a bit suspicious that all this bad stuff happens at once – as if maybe someone WANTS to force a panic bottom?  If so, I applaud them – we certainly needed to shake things up a little
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IBM Call Buyers Foresee New All-Time Highs Ahead

www.interactivebrokers.com

 

Today’s tickers: IBM, BIG & MMM

IBM - International Business Machines Corp. – Bullish options are in play on the world’s largest computer services provider this morning after IBM raised its quarterly dividend to $0.85 a share and increased the size of its stock buyback plan by $7 billion. Shares in the Armonk, New York-based Company are up 1.65% at $201.90 as of 11:05 a.m. ET. Weekly calls with a few trading days remaining to expiration are active, with the April ’27 $205 strike contracts drawing the heaviest volume in the expiry. The $205 calls have changed hands more than 2,300 times in the first half of the session versus 779 open positions, and it looks like most of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.26 apiece. Call buyers may profit at expiration as long as shares in IBM rally another 1.7% to surpass the average breakeven price of $205.26. Meanwhile, fresh interest in the June expiry calls suggests some traders are positioning for IBM’s shares to potentially hit fresh record highs in the next couple of months. The June $215 strike calls have traded more than 600 times this morning against open interest of 133 contracts, with much of the volume initiated by buyers paying $0.37 apiece, on average. Investors long the calls stand ready to profit in the event that shares in IBM surge 6.7% to top an average breakeven share price – and new all-time high – of $215.37 by June expiration.

BIG - Big Lots, Inc. – Shares in Big Lots are down big time after the discount retailer of consumer goods lowered its first-quarter sales forecast. The Columbus, Ohio-based Company’s shares are down more than 20.0% today to stand at $36.40 on the sales guidance and a slew of analyst…
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Zero Hedge

S&P 500 Melts Up Over 100 Points In 3 Days, Nears All-Time High

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Well that escalated quickly... The S&P 500 cash index has ripped from 1972.50 to over 2076 in 3 days... And US Treasuries are rallying hard too.

 

 

The Dow is up from 17067 to 17872... 800 Points

But bonds are ripping...


...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

UBS Initiates Capitala Finance With Buy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CPTA Capitala Finance Corp. Announces Second Quarter Activity

Analysts at UBS initiated coverage on Capitala Finance Corp. (NASDAQ: CPTA) with a Buy rating.

The target price for Capitala Finance is set to $21.

Capitala Finance's shares closed at $18.72 yesterday.

Latest Ratings for CPTA DateFirmActionFromTo Dec 2014UBSInitiates Coverage onBuy Nov 2014BarclaysMaintainsOverweight Nov 2014Deutsche BankMaintainsBuy

View More Analyst...



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Phil's Favorites

Competitive Theories: "Deflation Warning" vs. "Inflation is Nearly Everywhere"

Courtesy of Mish.

Theory #1: Break-Even Rates Provide "Deflation Warning"

Bloomberg is sounding a Deflation Warning as 2-Year Break-Even Rates Go Negative.

Break-even rates are the difference between treasuries and the same-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The break-even rate turned negative yesterday for the first time since 2009.

In theory, break-even rates reflect investors’ expectations for inflation over the life of the securities.

When break-even rates are negative, it's an indication investors expect price deflation for the duration, in this case for two years.

From Bloomberg ...
The drop in the break-even rate followed a Labor Depart...



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Chart School

Relief Bounce in Markets

Courtesy of Declan.

Those who took advantage of markets at Fib levels were rewarded.  However, this looked more a 'dead cat' style bounce than a genuine bottom forming low.  This can of course change, and one thing I will want to see is narrow action near today's high. Volume was a little light, but with Christmas fast approaching I would expect this trend to continue.

The S&P inched above 2,009, but I would like to see any subsequent weakness hold the 38.2% Fib level at 1,989.


The Nasdaq offered itself more as a support bounce, with a picture perfect play off its 38.2% Fib level. Unlike the S&P, volume did climb in confirmed accumulation. The next upside c...

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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

...

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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