Posts Tagged ‘TBT’

Thank GOOG It’s Friday!

SPY DAILYCan we end the week with a bang for a change?

Google had tremendous earnings last night (10% beat) and that has the Futures flying (along with AAPL’s IPhone 4S release, which has, as usual, lines around the block to buy their product on the first day).  We already made some quick futures money in Member Chat, shorting the Nas (/NQ), Dow (/YM) and Oil (/CL) at 6am in Member Chat.  Why go short – just because we had a silly pre-market run-up and we wanted to lock in gains – now it’s 7:30 and we’re done – waiting and seeing how things go into the open

Futures trading is very useful for locking in pre-market gains but you have to be very careful or it’s just as easy to blow them and, as we demonstrate in Las Vegas Sunday Night – the futures markets are clearly a load of manipulated BS – especially in thin after-hours and pre-market trading.  Fortunately though, that’s fine with us as one of the main lessons at PSW is "We don’t care IF the market is rigged, as long as we can figure out HOW the market is rigged and place our bets accordingly."  

The news we didn’t want to risk the futures on comes up at 8:30, as we get the Retail Sales Report for September and not much is expected after a very weak August, where Auto Sales really dragged us down with a 0.2% drop and there was nothing sexy about the other items either.  Still, one thing people fail to grasp when looking at these charts is that the numbers are in MILLIONS, not thousands – so August 2011 was $389,502,000,000 in total sales and up $26Bn from last August.  That’s a pretty healthy pace of $4.6Tn in just Retail and Food Services – what recession?    

NYMOAs you can see from David Fry’s chart, we probably need to work off some overbought conditions before we can have a proper rally.  Also, in an early Alert to Members this morning, we looked over our updated Big Chart and determined it was very unlikely that we will hit the levels we need to go bullish into the weekend so we are already planning to short the Nasdaq into the morning pop to put us neutral into the weekend with a 15/15 allocation (short-term positions, of course).  …
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Thrill-Ride Thursday

SPY 5 MINUTEWheeeee, what a ride!  

I hate to say I told you so but I did tell you so in yesterday’s morning post when I said: "Not to be cynical but, if you are going to have some Slovakian Government officials torpedo a vote that will tank the markets – isn’t it a good idea to run them up first and bring in a bunch of suckers to sell to? We remain a bit skeptical until we get back over our "Must Hold" levels and hold them for more than a day."  As you can see from David Fry’s chart, a little cynicism is a good thing in these markets as the Slovakian vote was delayed again and the FT rumor popped the day’s bubble.  

We discussed shorting oil at $86 (now $84) and gold at $1,695 (now $1,670) as good plays off the morning pump and, as usual, shorting TLT was a winner but now we’re near their theoretical support by the Fed so we’d rather see a run-up to $120 before we play them again.  At 1pm, we have a 30-year note auction of just $13Bn but, as I pointed out to Members in Chat, this makes $52.5Bn of 30-year borrowing since August 15th – that’s not even two months!  

Who can keep funding this kind of debt load?  And it’s not just the US that’s borrowing at an ever-increasing pace – the EU is borrowing as much as we are and Japan is borrowing and Russia is borrowing and Brazil and India are borrowing – Africa would borrow if anyone would lend it to them and our NAFTA buddies, Canada and Mexico, who also borrow about $50Bn a year to fund their own deficits. 

How is it possible, a logical person may ask, for almost every single country in the World to run a deficit at the same time?  Either A) China has so much of a surplus that they are funding everyone else or B) Everyone is printing money 24/7 to pay bills they don’t have the income for and, if B is the case – where’s the inflation?   Is it really possible that, on a planet with a $60Tn GDP and a $4Tn annual deficit (and yes, half of it is ours!) that prices go up less than the 6.66% (why does that number come up so often) printing of
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Bullish Bias To Options On UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

Today’s tickers: TBT, RIMM & CE

TBT - ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF – The huge run-up in bonds with greater than 20 years remaining to maturity may pull back by the end of the year, by the looks of a massive bullish options position on the TBT today. The TBT, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Barclays Capital 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index, rose 1.7% in early-afternoon trade to $19.12 perhaps on the release of some much-needed scraps of positive economic data out today. A number of large blocks of call options changed hands on the TBT this morning across multiple expiries. The traders responsible for the prints mostly purchased the contracts to position for shares in the TBT to rise, and bonds to fall. The largest transaction on the fund today was the purchase of a massive call butterfly spread in the December contract. The call ‘fly involved the purchase of 15,500 calls at the Dec. $22 and $28 strikes, combined with the sale of 31,000 calls at the Dec. $25 strike, all for a net premium of $0.26 per contract. The spread positions the investor to pocket maximum potential profits of $2.74 per contract in the event that shares in the TBT surge 30.75% over the current price of $19.12 to settle at $25.00 at expiration in December. The investor starts making money if the price of the underlying tops the effective breakeven price of $22.26 by expiration day. The rise in the TBT to $25.00 would roughly correspond to an 11.0% move lower in the TLT, which mirrors the daily performance of the same underlying Index of 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bonds, to $108.00. Shares in the TBT last traded around $25.00 on August 31.…
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Just Another Manic Monday – Value Investing

Up, up and away!  

As I mentioned in Friday’s morning’s post, we did a lot of bottom-fishing on Thursday as we began to develop Disaster fatigue with long plays on XLF at $11.50, shorting TLT at $123, shorting VXX at $49.50, TNA at $34.50, BRK.B at $65, AA at $10.20, VLO at $19, IMAX at $15.75, BA at $58.32, AGQ at $170, CHK at $27.50, DIS at $30.14 and ABX at $47.50.   They were hedged, of course and, for the most part, you still had a nice chance to make those entries on Friday – but not so much this morning as the futures are up about 1.5% already (7:30).  

Friday morning, in my Alert to Members, I reminded them that BCS looked like an excellent VALUE to me, no matter what the PRICE was ($8.75 after hitting $8.40 the day before) and this morning, that PRICE is up well over 10% in EU trading.  Did the VALUE of BCS change materially over the weekend?  Of course not, certainly not by the $4Bn their market cap gained – like the song, the VALUE remains the same – only the highly variable price of a share of BCS is undergoing ch-ch-changes…  

I pointed out similar hedged, long-term plays could be made on GS ($94), MS ($13), BAC ($6) and C ($24).  Of course we hedged them per our discussion in the morning post (TZA was our morning choice but we’re out over 650 on the RUT) but then we went long on EWG (Germany) again with the very aggressive Oct $16,18 bull call spread at $1.30, offset by the sale of the $17 puts for .90 for net .40 on the $2 spread.  10 of those in our virtual $25,000 Portfolio cost $400 and can return $2,000 in less than 30 days if EWG is over $18 and, guess what – they’re over $18 this morning!

Another bullish bet we placed was USO Nov $28/30 bull call spread at $1.30, selling the $27 puts for $1.10 for net .20 on the $2 spread with a 900% upside if USO simply doesn’t drop from where it is now.  That’s what’s nice about options – you don’t need the market to go up to make money good money.  On this trade idea, your worst-case scenario is owning USO at net $27.20, about 10% lower than it…
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TGIF – Stop the Week, We Want to get Off!

What a disaster!  

Of course, that's why we have Disaster Hedges, right?  August 11th was the last time we did a "Hedging for Disaster" post which included a LONG trade idea on gold that's done now (we're short) after gaining over 300%.  We're a little mixed in our results on the other hedges but that means we can SWITCH HORSES – from the trades that have already worked to the ones that haven't yet.  That's how we cash out our winners on a regular basis – it's the pony express of investing.   Our other Disaster Hedges from that post were:  

  • DXD Oct $23 calls at $2, selling Oct $27 calls for $1.15 and the Oct $19 puts for .70 for net .10.  That spread is currently -.05 so down 150% so far and a nice horse to switch to, offering a .05 credit on the $4 spread.  
  • FAZ Oct $65 calls at $22, selling Oct $72 calls for $20 and selling JPM 2013 $20 puts for $2.05 was a net .05 credit as a backstop to our long financial plays.  FAZ is now at $71.34 and the October FAZ spread is now $3.70 but the JPM puts are now $3 so net .70 is only up 1,500% so far.  Should the financials stay low, we get the full $7 from the spread and we're obligated to buy JPM for $20 (now $29.27) in 2013.  
  • SDS Sept $26 calls at $3.20, selling Sept $32 calls for $1.65 and selling VLO Jan $15 puts for $1.20 for net .35.  SDS is only at $25.73 so far (not a disaster yet) and the spread is now net $1.25 and the short VLO puts are .17 so net $1.08 on this one is up 208% and we're not even at goal – that's pretty good!  Note the spread is LOWER than when we started so this can also be used as a fresh horse with a different offset, like X Jan $15 puts for $1.20 for a net .05 trade.  
  • TBT was stopped out with a small loss at $24 (fortunately).  My comment at the time, with TBT at $24.88  was:  "Keep in mind though, that the Fed has said rates will stay low through 2013 so it would be wise to uses stops on the

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Monday Market Momentum – Down is the New Up

FXY WEEKLY Thank goodness the US is closed! 

Europe is down a whopping 3.5% (so far) this morning, opening in free fall after Asia opened down about 2% on the average (but finishing at the day’s lows).  Gold flew up to $1,906 before calming down but oil is down to $84.82 at 6:45 am as the Dollar tests it’s highs of 75.15 on the Euro’s fall to $1.41 and the Pound testing $1.61.  Any thoughts that the BOJ was done manipulating the Yen are now officially out the window as the Dollar/Yen is STILL 76.80 (around 128.50 on FXY), the same place it’s been since August 8th! 

When the World’s 3rd largest economy is manipulating it’s currency on a daily basis, of course the Global markets are going to be thrown into chaos.  Every day the BOJ tries to debase their currency they must buy other currencies or foreign stocks or gold or silver or oil – ANYTHING BUT YEN to make the Yen less valuable as compared to another relative basis.  

Even so, it’s not working and Japan’s new finance minister said this morning that he will try to forge a consensus among the Group of Seven leading industrialized countries that "excessive yen rises" won’t benefit the world economy when finance officials meet in France later this week.  "I am hoping to see us develop a common view that excessive yen rises, as shown by facts and processes in the past, do not necessarily have a positive impact on the global economy," Mr. Azumi told reporters, referring to Friday’s planned meeting of G-7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs in Marseille, France.  "At this exchange rate, it is becoming impossible for crucial parts of Japan’s export industry to make profits," he said.

BCS WEEKLY Asian shares were already following US financials downhill on overblown fears of the FHFA lawsuit (see FHFA Friday).  I say overblown because the first bank sued, ING, already settled for .20 on the Dollar so banks are reacting as if they already lost $30Bn when it’s much more likely this will all get washed away for $6Bn, or about 2 day’s worth of profits (4%).  We’ve already seen the banking community write down over $1Tn in losses and survive to screw us over another day – do we really think this little wrist-slap will end them or is this just another example of retail suckers
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FHFA Friday – Potential Lawsuit Tanks Banks

$30 Billion – that's bound to get their attention!  

According to the WSJ, the Federal Housing Finance Agency is set to file suits against more than a dozen big banks, accusing them of misrepresenting the quality of mortgage securities they assembled and sold at the height of the housing bubble. The suits, which are expected to be filed in the coming days in federal court, are aimed at Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, among others, according to three individuals briefed on the matter.

The suits stem from subpoenas the finance agency issued to banks a year ago. If the case is not filed Friday, they said, it will come Tuesday, shortly before a deadline expires for the housing agency to file claims arguing the banks, which assembled the mortgages and marketed them as securities to investors, failed to perform the due diligence required under securities law and missed evidence that borrowers’ incomes were inflated or falsified. When many borrowers were unable to pay their mortgages, the securities backed by the mortgages quickly lost value.

Fannie and Freddie lost more than $30 billion, in part as a result of the deals, losses that were borne mostly by taxpayers. In July, the agency filed suit against UBS, another major mortgage securitizer, seeking to recover at least $900 million, and the individuals with knowledge of the case said the new litigation would be similar in scope.  

Tim Rood, who worked at Fannie Mae until 2006 and is now a partner at the Collingwood Group, which advises banks and servicers on housing-related issues, agrees with what I told Members in last night's chat:  

"While I believe that F.H.F.A. is acting responsibly in its role as conservator, I am afraid that we risk pushing these guys off of a cliff and we’re going to have to bail out the banks again.”

In other words – MADNESS!  What was the point of spending Trillions of Dollars bailing out the Banks if you are going to turn around and sue them for $30Bn and drop their stock price another Trillion, causing them to need another bailout?  

Perhaps this is the denouement of a week of scary market rumors that seem to have been…
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Thrill-Ride Thursday – Will Dudley Do Right Save the Day?


Now THIS is an exciting ride.  We had a great sell-off in the Futures this morning – the same Futures that I mentioned, in yesterday’s Morning Post, that we had shorted at S&P 1,200 and Russell 710 in a post I had titled "1,200 or Bust!"  Of course we also called for our usual monthly oil short with the (/CL) Futures hitting $99 on yesterday’s inventory and now down to $86 (up $3,000 per contract).

Of course, for the Futures Impaired – we still have our straight USO Sept $32 puts at .90, which we whittled down to a .75 in yesterday’s Member Chat as well as the very lovely idea of the SQQQ Sept $25/28 bull call spread at $1 (spread with short RIMM Sept $22.50 puts to make it FREE) that I mentioned right in the 2nd paragraph of Tuesday’s post.  Those were just the ideas we gave away for free!  In Member Chat, yesterday’s morning Alert to Members was this:  

As I said earlier, we like the Futures short at RUT (/TF) 710 and S&P (/ES) 1,200 but the big play today will be shorting oil (/CL) below the $88.50 line or, hopefully, below the $90 mark if they get that high.  Expect the Dollar to re-test 73.50 and, if they hold it, then it’s a great time to hit the shorts but, with oil, we’re waiting on that inventory report at 10:30.  

As an overall short on oil, the Sept $32 puts are down to .65 and .60 is a good spot to DD in the $25KP (10 more).  AFTER that, with an average of .75 per contract, we want to consider rolling up to the Sept $33 puts, now .90 for .30 or less.

Another fun way to play an oil sell-off is the

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Income Portfolio – Month Four – Stormy Weather!

Riders on the storm 

Into this house we're born 

Into this world we're thrown 

Like a dog without a bone 

An actor out alone 

Riders on the storm 


What a crazy couple of week's we've been having!  Very fortunately, in last month's update of our virtual income portfolio, we had already cashed out $33,084 – more than enough to take us through our first 8 months (our planned $4,000 a month to live on).  We did that using just $200,000 of our $1M in buying power ($500,000 portfolio), staying very conservative and waiting for a bigger dip than the one we had had in June.  

Well, here we are!  We are now 10% below June's bottom and we did do a little bottom fishing, adding positions in WFR, SONC, IMAX, VLO, OIH, TBT and HOLI – positions we'll be reviewing below.  To a large extent, we followed the strategy I called "Don't Just Do Something, Stand There" during this sell-off although it was (and still is) a nail-biter as we tested my August 2nd prediction of the "worst-case" scenario of a 20% drop from the top.  

We stuck to our guns this week and had a lot of fun playing the wild gyrations with our short-term betting but the Income Portfolio is an exercise in managing a "low-touch" portfolio – one that does not require us to make daily adjustments.  I am aware that can be frustrating for people who stare at the markets every day but that is what our short-term trade ideas are for in Member Chat.  That goes for people who are retired or semi-retired too.  You don't HAVE to play every day – or any day for that matter but you do need to…
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Hedging For Disaster – 5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls (Members Only)

We took our last round of disaster protection back in early July and almost all of those trades are well in the money.  

Since you know I am a big fan of taking cash off the table in either direction, let’s not be greedy and look at ways to "roll" our downside protection into new downside plays so we can set SENSIBLE stops on our now deep in the money short plays (very similar to our Mattress Strategy).  Keep in mind that this is the biggest market decline we’ve had since last Summer, so adding a layer of protection here doubles our returns if this is the first leg of a major sell-off, or it gives us a smaller hedge that we can roll up later while we take our bigger hedges off the table.  As I have to say WAY too often to members – It’s not a profit until you cash it in! 

Hedging for disaster is a concept I advocated during another "recovery," in October of 2008, where we made our cover plays to carry us through a worrisome holiday season and into Q1 earnings – "just in case."  That "just in case" saved a lot of virtual portfolios!  The idea of disaster hedges high return ETFs that will give you 3-5x returns in a major downturn.  That way, 10% allocated of your virtual portfolio to protection can turn into 30-50% on a dip, giving you some much-needed cash right when there is a good buying opportunity.  At the time, I advocated SKF Jan $100s at $19.  SKF hit $300 around Thanksgiving and those calls made a profit of over $280 (1,400%), so putting even just 5% of your virtual portfolio into that financial hedge would give you back 75% of your virtual portfolio when you cash out. 

Keep in mind these are INSURANCE plays – you expect to LOSE, not win but, if you need to ride out a lot of bullish positions through an uncertain period, this is a pretty good way to go.  We cashed out our bullish $25KP positions by July 28th, (our active virtual portfolio) with the S&P at 1,340 and, since then, I’ve had a very hard time making long-term bullish picks.  I want top put up a Buy List but it’s still too risky – this will be step 1 though – protect first, then buy!  Once we cash
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Zero Hedge

Yuan Downside Breakout Is On And What It Means (Spoiler Alert: Nothing Good)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Eric Bush via Gavekal Capital blog,

The onshore yuan exchange rate (CNY) against the USD  has eclipsed 6.74 today while offshore exchange rate (CNH) was pushing 6.75 as the week drew to a close. Current levels are at 6-year lows against the dollar and it will be interesting to see what happens as we approach 6.80-6.85 as this was the line in the sand for about two years from 2008 to 2010.  All in all, however, it seems that the continuation of the devaluation that...

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Misconceptions about the Nordic Economies

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Nordic Economies

Photo by sebilden

Misconceptions about the Nordic Economies

The Nordic countries are usually mentioned in the Spanish political debate as examples of well-functioning and efficient Welfare States where the government provides citizens with a large range of social benefits. (The terms “Nordic” and “Scandinavian” will be employed interchangeably to refer to Sweden, Finland and Denmark. Norway and Iceland are excluded from my analysis.) Politicians, especially on the left side of the political spectrum, look at Sweden, Denmark, or Finland as successful social democratic experiments in which social entitlements are guaranteed by the ben...

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Phil's Favorites

End of Gasoline Powered Autos by 2030?

Courtesy of Mish.

Earlier this month, the German Bundesrat voted to ban new gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicles from EU roads starting in 2030.

Days later, the German Transport Minister Calls Internal Combustion Ban “Utter Nonsense”.

Let’s take a look at both stories.

German Government Votes to Ban Internal Combustion Engines by 2030

Members of the German...

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Market News

New You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Trillion-Dollar Payout May Mean Peak Largesse for U.S. Investors (Bloomberg)

A total $600 billion in share repurchases and $400 billion in dividends will be doled out by S&P 500 Index members by the end of the year, the biggest combined payout in history, according to strategists at Barclays Plc. Gravy like that is getting tougher to sustain as corporate profits suffer a six-quarter slump and cash levels begin to dwindle.

Deutsche Bank Could Be The “Lehman Moment” Of 2016 (Value Walk)


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bio-Tech; In more trouble if this fails, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

At one point in time, actually for years, Bio-Tech (IBB) was a market leader. From the 2009 lows to 2015, IBB out gained the S&P by more than 250%. Since the summer of 2015, Bio Tech has remained a leader, a “downside leader!” IBB has lagged the S&P by over 35% in the past 15-months.

Is the downside leadership over for IBB? Below updates the pattern on IBB


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Chart School

SP500 Status Pre US 2016 Elections

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Where have we been, what does the future look like?

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NOTE: does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party image tool named

Investing Quote...

..."There is what I call the behaviour of a stock, actions that enable you to judge whether or not it is going to proceed in accordance with the precedents that your observation has noted. If a stock doesn’t act right don’t touch it, because, be...

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Members' Corner

The Orlando Massacre Part 3

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

A continuation of a Naybob of IT's Natterings from Part 1 and Part 2...

While many Christian churches expressed grief and offered free funeral services for the victims of the Orlando shooting, the fundamentalist Westboro Baptist Church held an anti-gay protest during the funeral of the victims.

But the Westboro Baptist Church's protest rally was blocked by about 200 people who formed a human barricade on the main street in downtown Orlando, ...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 17th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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