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Thursday Thoughts

MRK got an upgrade so should move up a bit but I don’t trust that stock.

GY lost a big military contract and will go down quite a bit.

The gold and oil moves today is on a strong dollar so effects are magnified/modified to that extent. $520 is gold’s big test today.

Existing home sales are out today and could put a stake through the heart of the builders. I am short on BZH for purely technical reasons but it has proven very resilient.

KO may be bottoming here. Growth is outpacing earnings but both are up and I think that should merit a little more than the lowest price since early ’03 when the company was coming off ’02 earnings that were 40% lower than today’s.

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Stocks that might go up today regardless:

TWGP looks primed for another move up in the insurance space. Revenue should be up 100% this year but earnings are lagging, which I think is OK for insurance… I like the April $20s with a low $1.20 premium. ZNT is another good one here.

I hate airline stocks but someone has to fix the planes and AIR looks like the best mover in the industry. The stock has been on a tear since October and I have been looking for an entry point as it has flown up 50% in the past 7 weeks but I am ready to throw in the towel and buy a little if it doesn’t go below $24 by next month.

SPSS also fought the tape yesterday, exhibiting amazing strength in a bad sector. This data mining company is catching on with sales that go straight to the bottom line.

ALKS (what a symbol!) will go way up on a drug to treat alcoholism. It will have a hard time breaking $20.

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Stocks in very dangerous waters:

NDAQ just broke its 50 dma, still 12 full points above its 200 dma of $24. If the stocks can’t turn around, the exchange may suffer.

NIS had a lot of selling interest that bought a 5 day 50% rally to a screeching halt. This is a Japanese lender, not the car company but I have trouble with the p/e of 60 vs. an industry average of 14.

How low can BOL go is anyone’s guess but stay away from this on either side. Inertia alone may take this below $60 before it can catch its breath.

OSTK’s CEO is always complaining about all the people shorting his stock. Well who’s laughing now as the stock goes into freefall after being one of the only on-line vendors to sell less this year. Sales declining, losses accelerating – Oh my!

Be careful out there today!

Good trading,

- Phil


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