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Tuesday Tear-Down

Bryan E
Posted July 24, 2007 at 3:33 pm | Permalink 

"Today reminds me of that Barrons commercial…”The market goes up you make money, the market goes down you make money….but this time it’s because of PHIL, HAPPY, and ZMAN."

 

Well that sure makes us feel good!  Thanks!

We had a fantastic day on the member site as we played yesterday perfectly by loading up on the puts, especially on the oil sector but our DIA mattress plays paid huge dividends today as well, pushing the STP up over 300%, up from 277% on Friday.

Will the markets do it again tomorrow?  I'm betting not.  Our last play of the day was to grab DIA $140s for a dollar and QQQQ $50s for .60 as I was concerned that AMZN could spark a tech rally and we could be good for at least a 50 Dow point bounce, even if we are going to head lower for the day.  Those Q calls were trading at $1 around lunch and at $1.25 last week so they seemed nice and bouncy and, at this point, we were more in need of upside protection than down.

Pundits are blaming CFC for a very poor report and an even worse conference call (I highly recommend reading Barry's summary) but I say that's just shooting the messenger as CEO Angelo Mozilo says that the "company is seeing home price depreciation at levels not seen since the Great Depression."  For those of you who don't remember, the Depression was a bad time to be in the markets… 

Oil did just what I've been predicting it would do for the past week and the action was so good there that we were even able to add an intraday double on WNR.  Our morning Apple play went perfectly as we got our dip, our recovery and another dip and IGM was indeed a saving indicator as the sharp turndown at 12:30 kept us firmly on the short side but NOW the Sept $60s make a nice gamble at .65

Happy Trading kept us on our toes yesterday with this 12:10 chart – reiterating the cash call we've been going on about since last Tuesday:

 

At 2:56, just before the market dropped ANOTHER 100 points, I said: "A lot of things look like they are getting ready for a second leg down! CEO, RIMM, PTR, XOM, CVX.. heck everything!!!"

So that's pretty much how the day went…  We'll see if our pals at AMZN (and don't forget GLW and BA in the morning, all heavy positions for us) have enough to bring the markets back in the morning but we're not going to get too excited until we see some real retracements so tune in tomorrow for a full report.

Description

  Basis

Open

 Sale Price

Sold

 Gain/Loss

%

10 AUG 140.00 AAPL CALL (APVHH)  $    6,610 7/24  $    8,240 7/24  $   1,630 25%
10 AUG 135.00 AAPL PUT (APVTG)  $    5,260 7/11  $    6,390 7/24  $   1,130 22%
40 AUG 135.00 AAPL PUT (APVTG)  $  18,810 7/20  $  24,990 7/24  $   6,180 33%
20 AUG 85.00 CLF CALL (CLFHQ)  $    8,710 7/6  $    6,990 7/23  $  (1,720) -20%
10 AUG 85.00 COP PUT (COPTQ)  $    2,210 7/20  $    2,790 7/23  $      580 26%
20 AUG 90.00 CVX PUT (CVXTR)  $    3,010 7/20  $    3,990 7/23  $      980 33%
400 AUG 140.00 DIA PUT (DAZTJ)  $  90,810 7/18  $135,990 7/24  $ 45,180 50%
200 AUG 139.00 DIA CALL (DAZHI)  $  39,010 7/12  $  39,990 7/24  $      980 3%
30 SEP 142.00 DIA CALL (DAZIL)  $    6,910 7/16  $    5,990 7/24  $     (920) -13%
250 AUG 137.00 DIA PUT (DAZTG)  $  32,510 7/3  $  32,490 7/23  $      (20) 0%
50 AUG 80.00 DNA CALL (DWNHP)  $       260 7/2  $    1,740 7/24  $   1,480 569%
40 AUG 10.00 DNDN CALL (UKOHB)  $       530 5/31  $       590 7/24  $       60 11%
10 AUG 50.00 FAF PUT (FAFTJ)  $    1,160 7/9  $    2,990 7/23  $   1,830 158%
25 AUG 35.00 GM PUT (GMTG)  $    2,135 7/10  $    3,990 7/23  $   1,855 87%
15 AUG 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHV)  $  13,510 7/23  $  19,865 7/24  $   6,355 47%
10 AUG 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHV)  $    9,510 7/23  $  12,990 7/24  $   3,480 37%
10 AUG 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHV)  $    9,510 7/23  $    9,990 7/24  $      480 5%
10 AUG 520.00 GOOG CALL (GOPHV)  $    9,010 7/23  $    9,990 7/24  $      980 11%
10 JAN 50.00 KO CALL (VKOAJ)  $    3,060 1/16  $    7,890 7/23  $   4,830 158%
25 AUG 50.00 MRK CALL (MRKHJ)  $    3,260 7/18  $    8,740 7/23  $   5,480 168%
20 AUG 140.00 NMX CALL (NMXHH)  $    6,310 7/6  $  11,190 7/23  $   4,880 77%
20 AUG 180.00 OIH CALL (ODLHP)  $    4,610 6/22  $  22,990 7/23  $ 18,380 399%
10 AUG 75.00 SPWR CALL (QSUHO)  $       410 7/13  $    1,440 7/24  $   1,030 251%
20 SEP 35.00 TIE CALL (TIEIG)  $    3,610 7/18  $    4,390 7/24  $      780 22%
20 AUG 57.50 TSO PUT (TSOTZ)  $    3,910 5/2  $    7,590 7/23  $   3,680 94%
30 AUG 55.00 TSO PUT (TSOTK)  $    6,010 7/19  $    9,290 7/23  $   3,280 55%
400 Tesoro Petroleum Corp. (TSO)  $  21,710 10/30  $  21,738 7/23  $       28 0%
20 JUL 22.50 TWX CALL (TWXGX)  $       470 5/25  $         -   7/23  $     (470) -100%
20 AUG 50.00 WNR PUT (WNRTJ)  $    2,110 7/24  $    4,190 7/24  $   2,080 99%
20 AUG 110.00 X CALL (XHB)  $    6,010 7/20  $    5,990 7/24  $      (20) 0%
100 AUG 95.00 XOM PUT (XOMTS)  $  33,010 7/2  $  49,990 7/24  $ 16,980 51%
100 AUG 90.00 XOM PUT (XOMTR)  $  19,000 7/2  $  12,990 7/23  $  (6,010) -32%
200 AUG 95.00 XOM PUT (XOMTS)  $  70,010 7/23  $  69,990 7/23  $      (20) 0%
50 AUG 35.00 YUM CALL (YUMHG)  $       260 7/11  $    3,240 7/24  $   2,980 1146%

 

 


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  1. AAPL
    Things are calming down, or up:
    Apple: Channel checks suggest sustained iPhone momentum – RBC (134.89 ) -Update-

    RBC notes their current checks at AAPL and AT&T (T) suggests iPhone demand/sales momentum remains steady, following the huge initial surge in iPhone sales 1st weekend of launch. They note that AT&T Reported 146k Activations Q2, implying sales only slightly light to their 450-500k Q3 Sell-in Estimate. However, this may not reflect Apple’s true Q3 sales, excluding buyers who experienced activation delays, and units sold but not activated. Incorporating these factors suggests Apple may have sold 350-450k iPhones to users. Given Apple will report iPhone sell-in Q3 (i.e. sell-in to AT&T, sell-through online and Apple stores), they think Apple may report 400-500k iPhones sold Q3. They think variability around consensus estimates for Q3 iPhone sales is expected to cause valuation volatility. They would accumulate the stock on these opportunities as they expect Apple to resolve these issues and subsequently reinvigorate iPhone sales.

    JB


  2. Phil

    IGM

    but NOW the Sept $60s make a nice gamble at .65!

    This happened last time you recommended the etf. The bid is .5 the ask 1.65 and there is 5 open interest. I bought last time at a different strike/month. Is the problem with etrade?


  3. phil,
    please advise me what action to take regarding AMZN in the morning
    Oct 80 calls will be just fine,
    however, i sold the Aug 75 calls at $4.2 and don’t know how to approach this part of the play…
    should i buy it back at the open, or wait for it to calm down?
    thanks very much in advance.


  4. Phil/Dragon –

    CROX – what is your spread for earnings ratio? I am long the 52.50′s and sold the 50′s – thanx


  5. Can’t wait for the investment club. Everyone is making money but me. Just can’t keep up with the trades. Not complaining though; love Phil and his site and all the posters. Among all the thoughtful posts are some very hilarious ones.

    Jazz