Notable Calls on SNDK

July 2, 2008

203

Here are a couple quick notes on SNDK from Notable Calls.

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK): More colour from Amtech

Amtech on Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) (Focus List BUY): SSD Adoption is Being Constrained by Cost/Benefit Equation. Based on our checks during the recent AmTech Asia Bus Tour, we believe that SSD demand and adoption rates are being temporarily delayed by price, performance and endurance issues, which could result in push-outs of volume ramps until 2010. The obvious headwind is SSD pricing preventing demand elasticity, including SLC and initial MLC-based solutions. Asia-based ODMs believe that pricing is preventing SSD adoption in their notebook platforms. We also think SSD performance is a significant factor holding back adoption as the throughput performance of SSD-based storage is not improving as expected, especially in high-end server systems. Volume adoption of notebook SSDs based on MLC NAND could be pushed out into 2010 as customer perceptions of high price and low performance needs to be addressed by suppliers. We believe the low endurance of inexpensive MLC SSDs is a new constraint that storage architects must accept and design solutions around and is not a permanent headwind to SSD demand elasticity.

Maintain BUY on SNDK rating and $40 price target.

Notablecalls: See below for more colour on SNDK.

posted by notablecalls # 8:52 AM

Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK): Major positive call from ThinkPanmure

ThinkPanmure is out with a major call on Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) noting the stock has been hurt by collapsing NAND pricing and build up of inventory at retail, OEMs, and the Taiwan module houses. However, NAND pricing could stabilize. Firm’s checks indicate that Samsung is allocating 50M chips of 8Gb MLC to AAPL in July and August, which could substantially reduce Samsung’s inventory and reduce some of the price pressure on NAND and inventory overhang in the market. In firm’s view, while not a panacea for the inventory in the channel or at retail, it should stabilize NAND pricing. NAND spot pricing in the last two days has been trending up modestly.

While Bears have been calling for a renewed drop in NAND pricing, they believe the 50M chip order could remove a lot of NAND inventory and reduce a lot of inventory overhang from Samsung. Think believes it will also stabilize the NAND spot and contract pricing trends. If the pickup from the AAPL iphone, given what they view as an attractive $199 in the U.S. and free offers in some countries, is ahead of forecasts, it could drive more allocations from Samsung and help stabilize NAND pricing through the quarter

Reits Buy and $40 tgt

Notablecalls: SNDK will trade over $18 level today following this wonderful call by ThinkPanmure’s Vijay Rakesh. Also note that Morgan Stanley is closing out their short SNDK idea this morning which is likely to contribute to buy interest.

Well done Vijay

PS: Digitimes talking about NAND this morning saying AAPL is back and spot pricing is going to start reflecting it.