Elan’s stock price action on Friday indicates the market did not agree with my assessment that Elan losing around 50% of its market cap was way overdone, but I’m sticking with my original thoughts: the risk of PML is known and was estimated to be 1 in 1000, so two cases are not surprising. So far, the occurrence of PML has been less than anticipated. It may of course increase with duration of treatment — Warning (music selection for Elan). We make these risk/benefit analyses all the time, and sometimes none of our options are great, as is often the case in treating chronic, progressive diseases. – Ilene
There’s another WSJ article on Elan which may require a subscription to view the full article, but an excerpt was posted on Yahoo’s Elan message board (although I’m not sure it’s the same article, it is by the same authors).
MS Drug Side Effects Hit Biogen, Elan Stock
By DAVID ARMSTRONG and JEREMY SINGER-VINE, August 2, 2008
WSJ Free Preview: "Investors battered Biogen Idec Inc. and Elan Corp. after two new cases of a dangerous brain disease were linked to their multiple-sclerosis drug Tysabri, but a number of doctors and patients said they were sticking with the drug and believed its benefits outweigh the risk.
The two companies lost more than $10 billion in combined stock-market value as their shares plunged Friday, following the disclosure late Thursday that two patients taking Tysabri contracted progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, which may be fatal. The patients, one in Germany and the other in Sweden, are receiving treatment for the infection."
On Yahoo’s board, excerpt: "So far, doctors and patients appear unfazed by the latest development, saying PML cases are still rare, and they need the drug to combat the debilitating effects of MS, a central-nervous-system disease that slowly eats away at motor function. A spokeswoman for the National Multiple Sclerosis Society, a patient group in New York, said that "we are not sensing a mass product defection."
Biogen has previously estimated the risk of PML at one in 1,000. There are 31,800 people taking Tysabri.
David Margolin, a neurologist at Massachusetts General Hospital, said he has been an "aggressive" prescriber of Tysabri and plans to continue recommending the drug for patients.
‘I will likely continue to prescribe it for the same reasons we have to date," he said, noting that ‘the other therapies are not without their own risks.’ Dr. Margolin said the one in 1,000 risk of PML ‘has to be put in the perspective of the other 999 patients who, without this drug or another drug like it, are going to continue to suffer brain damage from their MS.’"
Reminder: All article and excerpts in Phil’s Favorites are free and immediately available (ignore the 48 hour box). If you have any problem getting on to this site on Monday, try the backup site. Some changes may be made on the main site this weekend. – Ilene
