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Stock Market Improves Before Economy

David Templeton, at Disciplined Approach to Investing, presents evidence showing that when the market is in the bottoming process, it’s important to stay invested so we don’t miss those days where the market gaps higher on the way to recovery.   – Ilene

The Stock Market Improves Before The Economy

Historical data suggests the equity markets improve before the economy begins to show some economic strength. As a result, can investors afford to sit on the sidelines before they see signs of an expanding economy?

Jeremy Siegel, a professor at The Wharton School, notes in his book, Stocks for the Long Run,

…of the 42 recessions from 1802 to the present (2002), 39 of them, or 93 percent, have been preceded (or accompanied) by declines of 8 percent or more in the total stock returns index. Historically, a bottom in the market has led a trough in the business cycle by about five months.  [emphasis added]

Investors will have little luck predicting market upturns and downturns because turning points are usually identified months [after] they’ve occurred, not beforehand. In the meantime, they’ll miss out on significant gains. From the bottom of the market to the end of the recession, the stock market has risen an average of about 24 percent (emphasis added).

(click on chart for larger image)

Certainly there have been false signals; however, if an investor’s risk tolerance and asset allocation profile calls for equity exposure, staying in the market is almost a prerequisite to achieving market beating returns. As I noted in an earlier article, Focus On The Long Run, timing the market is very difficult. If an investor is out of the market on those days when the market gaps higher, long run returns will be impacted negatively.

Source:
Don’t Wait for the Clouds to Break ($)
BetterInvesting Magazine
By: BetterInvesting Editors
September, 2008

 

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