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Saturday, May 18, 2024

IPhones, and Some Random Opinions

Adam Warner with a few Random Opinions is selling Feb. puts on AAPL and noting that Expiration Thursdays often mark reversal days due to coincidental government-generated activities and announcements.

IPhones, and Some Random Opinions

Courtesy of Adam Warner, at Daily Options Report
Over on Stocktwits, about 5000 thoughts or so on AAPL since last night. I truly find it impossible to make a determination this soon about the long term implications. Obviously Jobs=Apple, Apple=Jobs, but who really knows how it plays out over time? I suspect AAPL will have good things to say at earnings time, just because companies seem to magically do that when everyone is nervous. Like now. So I am selling some Feb. puts. For now.

But it’s really just psychology at this point, how much Jobs premium was left in the stock. It’s almost akin to a deal stock, where the deal was rumored to be going bad. And then it finally does go bad, and basically the stock won’t go up until the arbs all unwind. No way to know how long the remaining Cult of Steve owners take to get out.

Oh and CNBC’s Jim Goldman deserves a severe Colbertesque Wag of the Finger. First he berates Gizmodo for scurrilous rumor spreading. Rumors that were apparently correct. Then turns out Goldman had wind of the Jobs news a week ago and never actually reported it. Basically, he took his job description as Chief Stenographic Officer for the Apple PR department as opposed to, I don’t know, journalist?

Gizmodo sums it up here.

On the markets. We’re down 7 days in a row. The best trade every day has been doing something bearish into every little tweak up. But it’s Expiration Thursday. We have often seen mongo reversals on this very day. Sometimes helped out by Ben and Hank *coincidentally* having some sort of big announcement. So I am keeping that thought in the back of my head today. Perhaps to my ultimate detriment. Already been (too) quick with the one FAZ trade I made.

 

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