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Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Bill Gross: V-Shape Recovery is Unlikely

Bill Gross: V-Shape Recovery is Unlikely

Birds flying in V-formation over rainbow (Digital Composite)

Courtesy of George at Washington’s Blog

Forget the permabears, even Pimco’s Bill Gross is now saying a V-shaped recovery is unlikely:

The total bond market yields only 3.5%. To get more than that, high yield, distressed mortgages, and stocks beckon the investor increasingly beguiled by hopes of a V-shaped recovery and “old normal” market standards. Not likely, and the risks outweigh the rewards at this point. Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets – while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers – is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle.


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