Phil: Thank You!
Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years. The last 6 weeks in fact have been great. I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Selling short calls is definitely my preferred approach. Even allowed me to play golf this afternoon while the premium melted away and shoot a career low round. I owe you man!
Lincoln
Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.
DB
Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!
Deano
Phil - I got your earlier trade a month or so ago on MSFT 2015 32/37 BCS, selling 2015 30 puts. Nice up 75% now!
Jomptien
The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!
Gel1
Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...
Becker
Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.
Iflantheman
Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!
Greg
Phil — gotta thank you for your advice this week, and especially today. I took many aspects of your advice this morning, with all of my shorts -- being prepared on the short side, selling into intial excitement, taking the money and running, not being greedy. I also made money on the your /QM and /YM calls. It used to be I would be terrified of weeks like this one. Now, it feels somewhat comfortable, for want of a better word.
Escohen5
Hey Phil - writing to thank you!
First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable!
I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.
Bcfla
I love volatile days like this when you can make a bunch of money on these big swings. As long as you have Phil on your side calling the bottoms and the tops of course.
craigsa620
I must add yet another paen to Phil's "cash and short" call, as my TZA shorts are past paying for Similac and Pampers and have now covered all doctors and Mt. Sinai hospital bills for young Charlotte, as TZA took the portfolio up 10%.
Zeroxzero
Dear Phil, I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership. It is hard for me to follow all evening as I am in Tokyo but I can join you at the beginning of the market and read the next day.
Tokyolife
Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.
Chasw
Phil Thank you very much, I appreciate your help and wisdom.
CdsdpDean
hil, I hit my targets for the year in my 401K (thanks in no small part to your site), so I cashed out of all positions a couple of weeks ago. Feels good... I'm conservative with this money –looking for 2% per month, which i've been able to do… thx.
Lunar
I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Well. I have had several short DX contracts in the $78ish range during the last month and upon your two statements 1) don't be greedy, and 2) 76 could be a bottom, I yesterday put a buy GTC order to close my positions at 76 and for some inexplicable reason the DX spiked down after the close and now I can safely say that once again you have confirmed for me that you have been one of the best investment services I have yet to come across. Almost to the point that I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm completely wrong about my political stance as well. Almost. In any event, I wanted you to know that this has been my third execution based on your comments and recommendations that I have followed and this one has also worked to my advantage. My subscription fee has been more than justified for the next year and there's some left over to pay for my stay in Toronto this week, dinner at Joso's in the Yorkville section of town. If I smoked I'd have a Montecristo to salute you. Be well, stay well.
Flipspiceland
Thanks, Phil!!! I just crushed today with it with silver (SLV) calls today, thanks to your persistent reminders of how ridiculously cheap it has become, and watching my TSLA this week $240 puts dissolve into chump change added an extra note of amusement.
Zeroxzero
Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!
Gel1
Man, what a week: Bought C at 1.40, sold half at 1.59 (relatively big position), another quarter at 3.04 just now. Ran SKF down from 270 with one April put, still holding some 115's expiring in a couple days. I'm going to gamble this position like a champion Friday. Bought FAS at all sorts of levels and started cashing out. Long HOV, stock and some nickel calls for fun - Mocha up your buy-out from 5 to 8 and that's 10,900% return for the May-2.50's . Ha!
Biodieselchris
I must give kudos to Phil for changing my way of thinking. I'm a gambler by nature and used to just play the indexes with 3x etf's… well I still do, but the options give far better returns than I ever dreamed of. With these wild swings I've been catching 50-100% winners in days.
Mkucstars1
Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.
Oknoman
Cory Booker for President. :) . Thanks for all the good futures guidance Phil! Having one of my best months yet. Account is up 75% YTD!
Traderd
Greetings Phil,
I am an Economist at Harvard and some of my colleagues and I would like to let you know that we follow your posts on SA, and find your analysis refreshing, rigorous, and acute. Great work! Though many of us (including myself) have our work covered in the Wall St Journal, in many ways your macro commentary is more fearless and accurate than what is generally found in that venerable publication.
Kind regards,
Daniel
Daniel
Phil, i wanted to thank you again for helping me protect future stock allocations at work - finally, i feel like i am owning my own destiny with stocks vs. letting the market dictate what you get – thanks again.
Nramanuja
Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!
Rookie IRA Investor
Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!
Singapore Steve
What a great post today, Phil. A veritable feast of ideas! I've been reading your posts for years and have modeled my whole trading style after yours. You should be taking 2 and 20 off of me at this point ????
Jablams
Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!
Investwizard
Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!
The BEA Advance GDP for Third Quarter 2010 came in at +2.0%. However, Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product shows that Change in private inventories contributed +1.44 while real final sales contributed a mere .6.
How sustainable is that?
The answer is not very. This is likely the last hurrah for inventory replenishment even without factoring in upcoming cutbacks at the state level.
Not a V-Shaped Recovery
In terms of real final sales, this "recovery", is the weakest on record. Dave Rosenberg has some thoughts on that in Lunch with Dave.
U.S. REAL FINAL SALES 60 BASIS POINTS SHY OF DOUBLE-DIPPING
The major problem in the third quarter report was the split between inventories and real final sales. Nonfarm business inventories soared to a $115.5 billion at an annual rate from the already strong $68.8 billion build in the second quarter — this alone contributed 70% to the headline growth rate last quarter. If we do get a slowdown in inventory investment in Q4, as we anticipate, it would really not take much to get GDP into negative terrain. We estimate that if the change in inventories slowed to about $94.0 billion in Q4 (about $22 billion below Q3 levels), GDP would contract fractionally. In other words, it won’t take much for GDP to slip into negative terrain.
The recession may have technically ended, but outside of inventories, and the best days of the re-stocking process look to be behind us, this has been a listless recovery. At 60 basis points above zero, real final sales are just a shock away from double-dipping — a shock like looming tax hikes, accelerating fiscal cutbacks at the state/local government level or the millions of “99ers” about to fall off the extended jobless benefit rolls at the end of November.
In terms of components, the good news was that consumer spending did accelerate to a 2.6% annual rate from 2.2% in the second quarter — the best performance since Q4 2006. Non-residential construction eked out a 3.8% annualized gain, the first advance since Q2 2008. But the good news pretty well stopped there.
It is also no surprise to see imports bulge when inventories did the same, but what caught our eye in the external trade portion of the GDP report was
Mish takes on James Altucher’s wacko theory that the V in V-shaped recovery is a checkmark. The problem: focusing on a large percentage improvement from a low number to another low number takes the data out of the context. As an analogy, if you’re given three days to live and manage to live nine days, you didn’t recover. – Ilene
Aaron Task: Joining me now is James Altucher who says, not only is the recovery not over, and not only is it a "V Shaped Revovery, it’s checkmark shaped recovery. James you are wildly optimistic on the US economy right now?
James Altucher: I don’t want to say "wildly" because that sounds almost insane, and everyone is going to comment on these message boards that I’m completely whacko. At the same time if you look at all the data, go to the federal reserve website and look at every single chart of economic data, nonfarm payrolls, retail sales, inventories, it’s all a "V" or a checkmark. … The Debate is over. It’s already been a "V" the question is "Does it continue?" I think it does.
Completely Whacko
Yes James, you are completely whacko. I did go to the Fed website as you suggested and here are some charts to consider.
Civilian Unemployment
In terms of civilian employment there was a fast checkmark in the 70′s 80′s and 90′s but there is no sign of a "V" now, let alone a checkmark.
Auto Sales
Auto sales are now back to where they were in early 1980. This is the most miserable auto sector recovery ever in terms of actual numbers. Moreover, the data worse than it looks if one factors in population growth.
Looking for a checkmark? If you hold up the chart and look in a mirror you might see a nice one now, but the real one from 1980 vanishes.
Total Consumer Credit
With consumer credit, there is no "V" nor checkmark, nor any recognizable improvement, rather an unprecedented plunge dating all the way back
General Motors Co. posted a 17 percent increase in May U.S. sales, the first time the automaker topped analysts’ forecasts since January, as customers snapped up Chevrolet Equinox sport utility vehicles and Malibu sedans.
Deliveries rose to 223,822 from 191,875 a year earlier, the Detroit-based automaker said today in statement. GM was expected to report a 5.9 percent increase, the average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Industrywide sales may match the longest streak of gains in a decade, analysts estimated.
Total sales of Chevrolet vehicles gained 31 percent from a year earlier to 167,235 vehicles, and GMC brand deliveries increased 26 percent to 30,160.
Industrywide sales may have risen to an annualized rate of 11.2 million cars and light trucks for May, the average estimate of eight analysts. That would mark the eighth straight month of year-over-year gains, according to Bloomberg data.
The report speculated that Toyota sales may have risen 7.5%, Honda 22%, Nissan 11%, and Ford 16%.
Before everyone brings out the high-fives celebrating a miraculous recovery, let’s put this rebound in perspective.
Light Vehicle Sales Autos and Trucks
Note the cash for clunkers spike at the end of the last recession bars.
The industry had impressive gains percentagewise, but sales are at early 1980′s levels. This is hardly a V-Shaped recovery.
As you can imagine, the action in equity markets of late is quite satisfying for David Rosenberg, who has been unwavering in his bearish outlook. He isn’t changing his tune now. Rosenberg says there is no v-shaped recovery on the horizon and that this market isn’t (and hasn’t been) trading on fundamentals and is entirely technically driven:
Yesterday’s sharp and broadly based decline in the equity markets was the worst session since April 20 of last year. The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from the mid-January peak and the Asia-Pacific market is just 40 basis points shy of seeing a 10% correction after having its worst session in 10 weeks; emerging market equity funds lost $1.6 billion in net redemptions in the past week, the largest outflow in nearly six months. Financials were clobbered 4.2% and led the decline, though basic materials weren’t too far behind. Volume swelled as all the major averages fell off — not a good sign for the bulls.
I went for a 5km run at the club I recently joined (I aim to lose 30 pounds ASAP just to get back to being fat again, and the 30 pounds after that will finally take me back to my college days). Fast Money came on the tube and it was almost laughable to see them all grappling for the reasons why the selloff occurred. China here. Greece there. No, sorry. Remember Bob Farrell’s eleventh rule: “it’s the news that makes the market; not the other way around.
He continues to think the market is overpriced and ripe for a serious decline. He throws in a couple of jabs at CNBC while he’s at it:
This is a stock market that is as overpriced as it was heading into the October 1987 crash and as the case back then, it wasn’t about the fundamentals but about policy discord between the U.S., Japan and Germany. A market priced for perfection requires perfection on all fronts.
The comments on Fast Money were that the fundamentals hadn’t changed — this selloff is pure emotion. Really? We had a 70% rally from the March low in advance of any serious turn in the economic data — this was
Monday’s very strong reading in the ISM manufacturing data has many market pundits beating their chests over the v-shaped recovery in the U.S. economy. Many of these pundits (most of whom completely missed the collapse) remain delusional. By almost any metric of the real economy this is anything but a v-shaped recovery. Not only is the stock market still 28% below its all-time high (no v there), but the data from the real economy still shows that the majority of Americans confront a very tough environment. The following four charts from the St. Louis Fed succinctly tell the story:
Last Friday’s lights-out GDP report has revived hopes among bulls that we still might get the V-shaped recovery everyone was predicting last summer.
After a string of disappointing jobs and housing numbers in the fall, it seemed the chance of that had been fading.
But Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius has a grim message: It’s not happening.
In a weekly note, he slams the idea that a sharp fall must be followed by a sharp recovery (the argument put forth by the likes of interest rate guru James Grant).
Hatzius’s argument: Unlike in past recessions, which were caused by Fed tightening, this time the Fed is super loose, and we’ll experience tightening while the economy recovers.
Yesterday Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher threw a little cold water on the V-shaped recovery madness everyone seems to be buying into these days.
Speaking at a conference in Tyler, Texas, Fisher said he was willing to venture that the increase would not be "as robust as originally reported."
He did say, however, that the growth rate would still be positive – though it would be closer to a rate of 2.5 percent – and that growth would also be positive for the fourth quarter.
Even though he said economic growth would be positive, Fisher cautioned that the high unemployment rates would cause recovery from last year’s financial crisis to be slow.
Managing Expectations
Got the idea the Fed is attempting to manage expectations? If so, that is precisely what the Fed is doing.
When asked about the dollar at a question and answer session following his speech, Fisher said that lower interest rates have not increased the risk of the dollar declining in value. Rather, he said, the weakening of the dollar was due to other major currencies entering the world’s economic system.
"You’d expect with more participants that there might be some kind of rebalancing," but such evolution would be orderly and gradual, he said.
Let me get this straight: The dollar is falling because "other major currencies [are] entering the world’s economic system".
Is he serious? What this proves is these guys absolutely cannot think beyond their prepared remarks.
The Effect of Stimulus
A $trillion in stimulus (not counting bank bailouts) and other stimulus measures not labeled "stimulus" because everyone is getting tired of the word, only got us 2.5%-3.0% of GDP growth.
Heightened appetite for risk does not mean that credit problems have gone away as we see the global speculative-grade corporate default rate rise 12 basis points in October, to 9.71%. And Fitch just published a report indicating that the U.S. banks can expect to see 10% of their $1.1 trillion of direct commercial real estate loans default and that the regional banks can expect to see “significant” cuts in their credit ratings.
As Edward notes, "continued high unemployment is the elephant in the room which higher asset prices can not make disappear." Logically, the asset prop-up benefits those with assets to a greater extent than those with no assets-- so do policy makers even see growing inequality as a problem? – Ilene
The US Department of Agriculture highlights how the United States in the last decade, despite increased aggregate wealth, slid back significantly in terms of food insecurity as measure of poverty. With everyone now focused on the unemployment situation, it bears noting that even before the downturn in the economy there had been a large surge in food insecurity nationwide.
The table below, also from the Guardian, shows where food insecurity is highest. While much of the distress is concentrated in the South, there are plenty of states in the Southwest and West as well. Maine has the highest food insecurity in the Northeast.
My interpretation of the data goes to income inequality. I see this as evidence that the last decade of growth in the U.S. has not been beneficial for poorer Americans. However, I would go further in saying that the downturn in the U.S. and rising unemployment, bankruptcy and foreclosure in the middle class has made plain that the middle class has also been left behind. While distress amongst poorer Americans is plain from these numbers, the diminished position in the middle class was masked by a surge in debt. This was made plain only as a result of a drop in asset prices.
At present, U.S. policy makers are trying to make this problem go away by reflating an asset bubble, but continued high unemployment is the elephant in the room which higher asset prices can not make disappear.
Forget the permabears, even Pimco’s Bill Gross is now saying a V-shaped recovery is unlikely:
The total bond market yields only 3.5%. To get more than that, high yield, distressed mortgages, and stocks beckon the investor increasingly beguiled by hopes of a V-shaped recovery and “old normal” market standards. Not likely, and the risks outweigh the rewards at this point. Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets – while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers – is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle.
Joe, like me, is having a hard time embracing the V-shaped recovery belief. He makes a good point about economics not being either physics or history, and if we’ve seen anything over the last few years, it’s perhaps how wildly the operative economic principles of the day have failed. – Ilene
Well, well. It’s suddenly become very hip to believe in a V-shaped recovery, and to slam the pessimists for not knowing their history. As Jim Grant argued yesterday in the Wall Street Journal, the severity of the slump predicts the severity of the recovery — it’s just like physics!
But economics isn’t physics. And don’t worry about not knowing your history, because economics isn’t history either.
Here’s why we’re not in for a v-shaped recovery.
First, the pax economica that preceded the current slump was artificial. Large swaths of the economy had stopped doing anything productive, while the rest of the economy was buoyed by rising home values that allowed for spending on a level that was disconnected from what people were actually bringing in via income. Of course, you know this part of the story, but the key is that this is meaningfully different than the situation heading into previous economic slumps.
The other reason why we’re not in for a "V" is that the economy, even without the credit-collapse, is still in the midst of violent changes in the economy. New technology and new business models are uprooting old businesses (whether it’s media, manufacturing, or commercial real estate), throwing labor and capital into disarray. Ultimately the transition will be good, but in the meantime, displaced workers will face an unusual amount of lag in finding new work, if only because the industries that were they yesterday have gone and disappeared, requiring extensive levels of retraining.
There are other aspects too, such as the size of government and demographics that look increasingly unfavorable.
Curiously, Jim Grant’s admonition to remember history only mentions past slumps in the US. We don’t see the word "Japan" mentioned once in the whole article? But unless the laws of economics are different there than they are here, then we can certainly point to examples of bad busts that weren’t followed by a quick snap back.…
While headlines distract the world's investors with headlines of Trump and Xi exchanging trade-war shots - with Trump going big with tariff threats ($450bn) and China trying to play 'good cop' - something notable has been happening in the FX markets that few are paying attention to.
As bubbles expand and hot money starts burning holes in corporate pockets, merger and acquisition deal terms begin to leave reality behind. Often one deal of such breathtaking size, scope and hubris is struck that - in retrospect – it heralds the end of the era.
The junk bond bubble of the 1980s, for instance, hit its apex with the December 1988 leveraged buyout of processed food conglomerate RJR Nabisco, which featured a prolonged bidding war by a Who’s Who of the corporate raider/LBO community. At $25 billion, it was seen as “staggering” at t...
Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...
What started off as a hopeful week of broadening user adoption is ending on a sour note as Japan's chief regulator launched a probe of crypto-exchanges, prompting the largest to halt account creation sending the entire crypto space lower...
Yesterday, Small Caps led the rally as Large Caps lost ground. Today, those same weak Large Caps took another hit and dragged Tech indices with them. Small Caps also suffered but they have plenty of wiggle room before they hit trouble.
The Dow sell-off didn't stop at its 50-day MA and is now on course to test its 200-day MA. Technicals, aside from Stochastics, are bearish.
Of greater concern was the hit to the Semiconductor Index. The attempt to hold 1,393 support was swiftly ...
The problem with opioids is that they kill pain – and people. In the past three years, more than 125,000 persons died from an opioid overdose – an average of 115 people per day – exceeding the number killed in ...
By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...
The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.
In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...
"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.
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Well, well. It’s suddenly become very hip to believe in a V-shaped recovery, and to slam the pessimists for not knowing their history. As Jim Grant 
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the site
