Courtesy of Doug Short.
The S&P 500 popped at the open on better-than-expected unemployment claims (and a small upward revision to GDP helped set the mood). but 20 minutes latter a selloff began, stabilized, and resumed after lunch. But the final hour brought strong rally to erase the losses and log a 0.81% gain at the close. We have one maket day left in the month of September, historically the weakest month of the year, and month-to-date the index is down 4.8%.
Year-to-date the index is in the red at -7.73%, which is 14.90% below the interim high set on April 29.
From an intermediate perspective, the index is 71.5% above the March 2009 closing low and 25.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
