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Friday, May 3, 2024

Conflict in the Model

So what do you do when your daily SPX trend model says BUY and your weekly says SELL?  Well, there’s always tossing a coin, checking with god, sticking to your conviction, or trying to reason the thing out.  I think Allan is doing the latter. ~ Ilene 

Courtesy of AllanTrends

Here is the SPX Daily Trend Model that we have been watching over the past several weeks:

SPX Daily w/EW Wave 5 Sell Set-up

It is showing an interim LONG signal that will be confirmed at a close today above 1197.57 (let’s call it 1198).  It will be hard to ignore a LONG on this index.

On the other hand, we are closer now to a Wave 5 Sell Signal then we have been since we have been monitoring it.  This is a tough one, but with all of the other indices showing the market as reversing LONG, a disciplined strategy says to go with a confirmed LONG signal.

What I plan to do should have no bearing on what this system or anyone following this system does with their trading. But with the Weekly Models all still SHORT and the Wave 5 Sell so close to being triggered (one good down day away), I am staying with my SHORT positions. It is not a recommendation, but I think it is only fair to disclose my personal strategy for dealing with this situation.

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Here’s the weekly chart for reference:

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