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Wednesday, March 29, 2023


Monday Market Madness – What’s This Greece Thing?

NOW Greece is going to matter?

Just when we were planning to get bullish, the Futures are off half a point as concerns about Greece, of all things, come back to the forefront as pretty much the entire country is poised to strike this evening on the expected news that even stricter austerity measures will be jammed down the throats of a Nation that is already suffering from 20% unemployment.  

Greece's debt is "only" 159.1% of their GDP – that's just lunch money to Japan and you don't see anyone worrying about them, do you?  Portugal's debt to GDP ratio has gone from 106.5% to 110.1% last quarter but the year before it was at 91.2% so let's look on the bright side and say their debt acceleration is slowing.  Ireland also "only" rose to 104.9% (not 105%!) from 102.3% and that's much slower than the run from the previous year's 88.4%, which is about where the UK is now (85.2%) and that's below the EU average of 87.4% so bravo Britain and all that!  

As I said to Members in this morning's Chat, I am resolved to only look on bright side of the news until we fail to hold our technical breakouts at Dow 12,749, S&P 1,333, Nasdaq 2,863, NYSE 7,866 or Russell 815 – as long as those hold up, we are beyond the reach of news gravity and should all do our best to ignore all that silliness going on on Earth and just concentrate on which stocks don't have p/e's of 100 yet so we can keep buying along with the crowd.  

jobs-Clinton-Bush-ObamaLooking at our Big Chart, we certainly have an impressive-looking breakout and far be it for me to point out it came at the expense of a weak Dollar so, unless you were 100% in stocks and gained along with the S&P faster than the Dollar fell, you probably had a net loss of wealth during this "rally" as the declining Dollar decimated the value of everything else you worked to build over your entire life but, hey – look at that S&P go!  

Jobs are also on the march, unless you listen to Rush Limbaugh and the rest of the Conservative Media's spin on the subject.  The last thing the Right want's to see is Americans going back to work – especially during an election year when they are trying to get voters to return to the good old day's of the last decade and not endure the horror of another 4 years of Democratic job creation.  If this keeps up, workers may actually want raises or – gasp! – benefits

Reports are that the BOE is set to launch QE3 of $75Bn this week, bringing their total QE up to $500Bn, which is a very impressive 20% of their entire economy – on par with our own Fed dumping $3.2Tn on the markets – which does just so happen to be the Fed's official balance sheet, actually.  Our own Treasury needs to borrow another $140Bn this month to keep the lights on and we have 3 and 6-month auctions at 11:30 this morning, 1-month and one-year auction at the same time tomorrow followed by a 3-year auction at 1pm.  

Tomorrow we also hear form Lacker, Lockhart, Fisher and Sack (VP of NY Fed) in an orgy of Fed-speak which will be followed up on Wednesday by Uncle Ben himself at 10 am, then a 10-year auction at 1pm and then Sack again after hours followed by Lockhart, who speaks again on Thursday at 12:40 – just ahead of the 30-year note auction at 1pm.   We went long on TLT off that $116 line on Friday as we have faith in our Fed doves to talk up TBills into the auctions.  

It's a very boring data week with Consumer Credit tomorrow along with Small Business Optimism and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday but nothing else of note so the attention should be all on Greece and earnings.  Since either Greece will pass a debt deal and Athens will be in flames tomorrow or Greece will not pass a debt deal and Europe will be in flames tomorrow – I am liking those TLT longs (we picked up the weekly $115 calls for $2)!  

That's all the news we want to look at as we need to maintain a positive mental attitude if we are to go bullish at this, the former top-end of our range.  Our bullish premise rests on Greece being fixed, Portugal not immediately becoming the next crisis, the rest of Europe finding a bottom, ignoring Japan's debt issues, a soft landing in China and strong growth in America with inflation while the rest of the emerging markets keep inflation in check.  

What, us worry?



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The media's turning negative.
Lloyd and the boys must be short.

zero – I would say kind of true. Im at HQ so Im removed from much of the fight. Ill be going south tomorrow for a day and the place Im going gets rocket attacks daily so maybe Ill hear more opinions of this type tomorrow. I would say the majority dont believe this is a war we can win and many question why we are here. There is a lack of a 'buy in' for many troops b/c we dont trust ANY of the afghanis…

jromeha……….read the article posted by zero, and i guess the author is putting the politicians in the same class as the Afghans when it comes to trust.
be safe.

Now for a reality check on the supposed conservatives trying to throw a damper on the lies coming from the B(L)S.
But don't tell any Bamster disciples.
Short WOR

As the Russians used to say: I would say the majority don't believe this is a war we can win and many question why we are here.
Speaking as someone whose grandfather was stoned to death by a mob of hysterical Iraqis in 1939, I am probably a bit biased in the matter, but I would not trust any of the bastards,  because mentally many are still in the stone age, which is where the Prophet found them worshiping stones. It is interesting that while Sharia law is regarded by most Westerners as rather barbaric, it was rather progressive compared to what it replaced. For example cutting off a thief's arm is a great advance on massacring the entire family of the thief. However,  as the Prophet said: "Look,  I am just one guy. There is a limit to what I can do with these mothers. OK? You can take the man out of the tribal village,but you can never take the tribal village out of the man."
Good luck, godspeed, and watch your back.

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