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Friday, May 3, 2024

S&P 500 Snapshot: Monday Blues on Chinese News

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 posted a loss of 0.39% for the day in the wake of mixed US economic news: ISM services rose above expectations (slightly) and factory orders declined (but less than forecast). The big news, however, is that China, has cut its annual growth target to 7.5%, first downward estimate in eight years. The year-to-date gain for the index stands at 8.49%.

From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 101.7% above the March 2009 closing low and 12.8% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 

 

 

 

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.

 

 

 

 

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