Archive for 2012

Weighing the Week Ahead: A Search for Leadership

Courtesy of Doug Short.

I cannot do justice to the concept of leadership in one article, but let us hit the highlights.

Leadership is what most market commentators want when they complain about “politicians.” They want leaders of democracies to ignore the demands of constituents and do what is right. Unfortunately, the punditry has widely varying views on the best course of action!

The search for leadership is hitting center stage.

Leadership requires more than accepting and following opinion polls. It includes finding solutions and convincing people that this is the right path. Bringing contending parties together. Finding compromises. Personal charisma. A persuasive presence. Confidence in the face of crisis.

The need for strong leadership is readily apparent, but why the focus right now? I see three factors:

  1. The upcoming Greek election, which may well determine whether Greece leaves the Eurozone and on what terms;
  2. Increased urgency among European leaders, as austerity programs fail both with voters and in economic results;
  3. Intensifying US politics, with a new focus on the personal skills of the candidates.

This last point, highlighted by Obama’s press conference comments, will be the big topic for the weekend talk shows and featured in financial news this week. It is difficult to find a really neutral link for this subject, and you can easily find many on your own, but this coverage from Business Insider provides both facts and context. It shows the actual statement and plenty of quotations from Republicans, but also some data.

I’ll offer some thoughts on this in the conclusion, but first let’s do our regular review of the events and data from last week.

Background on “Weighing the Week Ahead”

There are many good sources for a list of upcoming events. With foreign markets setting the tone for US trading on many days, I especially like the comprehensive calendar from Forexpros. There is also helpful descriptive and historical information on each item.

In contrast, I highlight a smaller group of events. My theme is an expert guess about what we will be watching on TV and reading in the mainstream media. It is a focus on what I think is important for my trading and client portfolios.

This is unlike my other articles at “A Dash” where I develop a focused, logical argument with supporting data on a single theme. Here I am…
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Farage On The Spanish Bailout: “A Reinforcement Of Failure”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the short-term benefits can be weighed against any long-term solution a number of ways, Nigel Farage provides not just the most colorful summation of situation but also the most succinct when he refers to the ‘madness’ of ‘intervention to keep the Euro alive’ as “reinforcement of failure”. The better, and braver, in his opinion, thing to do, is to recognize that those Mediterranean countries should never have joined the Euro in the first place. As we have stated again and again, by kicking-the-can once again to prop up the euro-zone with bailout-after-bailout, all we are doing is prolonging the misery. The discussion on Sky News digs into the collateral-damage ‘strawman’ – which will happen anyway – and then ‘Red’ Ken Livingstone (an infamously socialist-leaning British politician who advocated for Britain’s joining the Euro when it was formed) now somewhat notably agrees with Nigel that “locking Europe into a decade of permanent economic malaise” adding that once the smaller countries were added to the core, “it was doomed to fail”. The two ‘odd fellows’ continue on to discuss the analogy of the USA to a United States of Europe noting that it took a civil war and a century before a common monetary and fiscal policy was accepted, adding simply that Europe’s “nations will not give up their sovereignty”.

 





Socialists Score Well in First Round of French Parliamentary Elections, Poised to Take Control of Assembly and Senate for First Time Ever; Economically Insane Ideas Coming Up

Courtesy of Mish.

Be prepared for the Socialists to wreck France. The Guardian reports French Socialists on course to score absolute majority in parliament and President François Hollande is about to get a free hand in his response to country’s economic crisis.

The left has scored well in the first round of French parliamentary elections, leaving the Socialist party within reach of an absolute majority that would give François Hollande, the president, a free hand in his approach to dealing with the economic crisis.

The Socialists need 289 out of the 577 seats in the national assembly to take an absolute majority in the final runoff on Sunday 17 June.

First-round results show the Socialists are predicted to take between 275 and 315 seats, according to polling company TNS Sofres, and could make up the numbers with the backing of their electoral allies, the Greens.

The first round vote results suggest that the broad left will dominate parliament. Early results and estimates showed the left in general taking 47%, the right 35% and the far-right Front National 13%.

One of the biggest defeats of Sunday evening was Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the firebrand hardline leftist from the Front de Gauche. He had stood in a high-profile, deprived Pas-de-Calais constituency in a personal battle against Front National leader Marine Le Pen, but was knocked out in the first round.

Le Pen will now face a Socialist in the runoff. Mélenchon said he was disturbed by Le Pen’s high score and would continue to fight the far right.

If the Socialists win an absolute majority, it would be the first time in modern history that the party had control of both houses of the French parliament: the assembly and the senate.

Implications Not Pretty



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Guest Post: It Only Took A Global Depression To Reduce Gas Prices By 40 Cents

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

You can’t watch the mainstream media propaganda channels for more than ten minutes without a talking head breathlessly announcing that gas prices have dropped for the 24th day in a row and are now back to $3.55 a gallon. Wall Street oil analysts, who are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per year to tell us why prices rose or fell after the fact, are paraded on CNBC to proclaim the huge consumer windfall from the drop in price. This is just another episode of a never ending reality show, designed to keep the average American sedated so they’ll continue to spend money they don’t have buying crap they don’t need. The brainless twits that pass for journalists in the corporate mainstream media never give the viewer or reader any historical context to judge the true impact of the price increase or decrease. The government agencies promoting the storyline of those in power extrapolate the current trend and ignore the basic facts of supply, demand, price and peak oil. The EIA is now predicting further drops in prices. Two months ago they predicted steadily rising prices through the summer. What would we do without these government drones guiding us?

As you can see from the chart, gas prices tend to be volatile and unpredictable in the short term. You can also see that since 1998 the trend has been relentlessly higher. The average inflation adjusted price of gasoline in 1998 was $1.41 per gallon, versus $3.55 today, a 152% increase in fourteen years. Over this same time frame the BLS manipulated CPI was up only 44%. If we are swimming in oil, as the MSM pundits claim, why the tremendous surge in price? It must be those evil oil companies. It couldn’t possibly be the impact of peak oil. To acknowledge the fact that worldwide oil production has reached its peak would be to concede that our suburban sprawl, just in time world is drawing to an excruciating end. So the politicians spout their assigned storylines, supported by their paid off “experts” (aka Daniel Yergin), and unquestioningly reported as fact by their designated corporate media outlet. Those of a liberal bent assail oil companies and speculators; refuse to acknowledge the law of supply and…
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Investor Sentiment: Bull Signal Awaits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by thetechnicaltake.

The “dumb money” indicator is now showing that investors are extremely bearish, and this is a bull signal. On average, the best time to buy is 1 week after the signal. Several caveats are worth noting.





“The Euro Is Like a Knife in the Hands of a Child”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by testosteronepit.

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com

While France is preoccupied with the legislative elections next weekend, Germany and Austria plunge into intense public soul searching about the euro, its meaning, its relevancy, the sheer and endlessly growing expense of maintaining it. To which are now added the $125 billion for bailing out Spain, the first in a series as Greece and others have shown: the bailout to solve the problem once and for all proves insufficient and is followed by more bailouts. Spain won’t be an exception. And then there’s Italy.

And yet, the German-language media scream about the expense of abandoning the euro. They call it the crazy option of returning to the D-Mark and warn of gigantic losses. But the very fact these discussions appear on the front pages of established newspapers moves the option a step closer to reality. Because, once the debate is opened up—and it’s a big can crammed with ugly worms—it’ll be difficult for governments to sweep all these worms under the rug and to revert to the con-game.

“As it’s going at the moment, the monetary union cannot function long term,” affirmed German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann on Sunday. To avoid the worst turbulence, he called clarity: either establish a fiscal union with transfer of sovereignty to a central authority, or continue with autonomous national budget policies, in which case, “common liability must be limited.” He warned of the consequences of the break-up of the Eurozone, which would produce unpredictable and huge costs and risks. In the same breath, he cautioned that the threat of these costs and risks must not make Germany vulnerable to extortion.

Germans are worried. According the ARD-Welt poll published last week, 55% believe that it would have been better to keep the D-Mark, up 9 points from November, 56% fear for their savings, 78% believe that the worst of the euro crisis is still ahead, and 83% want Greece to leave the Eurozone if it doesn’t stick to the austerity and reform measures it had agreed to.

“The euro is like a knife in the hands of a child,” said Thilo Sarrazin, former member of the Executive Board of the Bundesbank and politician in the opposition SPD. As so often, “something that appears useful and sensible becomes dangerous,” he said. The…
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Rajoy To de Guindos: “Spain Is Not Uganda”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Yesterday, following the Spanish bailout, we finally concluded that contrary to endless politician lies, Spain is Greece. However, in keeping with the insolvent Eurozone’s favorite Hegelian dialectic of definition by exclusion, it appears that Spain’s leaders have been forced to aim lower. Literally. As in all the way in Africa. Because according to El Mundo‘s front page article, the text message that PM Rajoy sent from somewhere deep in Euro2012 to de Guindos, is essentially this: “España no es Uganda.” This needs no translation. It also means that the people of Uganda should be happy. Very happy.

Sadly, not even The Onion could have come up with something quite as David Lynchian…





EURUSD Jumps Driving Global Risk-On (For Now)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As US equity futures open up 15pts or so, it seems EURUSD’s initial 130pip spike from Friday’s close merely jogged it back up to Friday’s late day ramp close in equities (just above Thursday’s highs for the major FX cross). Of course it was a see-saw weekend for Spain – they got all the money they wanted (and probably some ponies and unicorns) but only managed a tie against Italy in Euro 2012. Given the short-interest, as we noted in our widely read analysis of #Spailout yesterday (Item 5 here), it is little surprise that we are seeing EURUSD rally. EURUSD is still around 200 pips shy of its swap-spread-implied rate (which seems to be the common level to revert to after ‘stress’ liquidity hits the EUR and is then ‘fixed’). We won’t be surprised to see other risk assets levitate on this and while some traders will resist the urge to fade, we suspect that by the time Europe opens things will look a little different as Spanish sovereigns bondholders realize what just happened. The USD is weak against all the majors except JPY as risk-on carry trades hold it practically unch against the USD. Gold has opened modestly higher (in line with USD -0.8% weakness) but Silver is its high beta self +1.9%. Treasury futures are open (cash not yet) but imply a 10-12bps jump in yields for now! WTI just opened 2.3% higher at $86 (so much for that tax-break?)

EURUSD and more importantly for risk, EURJPY, had pushed up to where ES closed on Friday – with maybe a 5-10pt premium for momentum, then as ES opened 15pts up EURJPY also popped – but neither seems ready to push higher or lead for now…

 

Each major ‘event’ has put downward pressure on EURUSD relative to its swap-spread-implied ‘fair-value’. Think of this as a ‘liquidity’ premium. The lower pane shows the crisis in Q3 of last year which then reverted on global CB intervention and then the EUR’s undervaluation through the entire LTRO1 and LTRO2 period (which reverted almost perfectly when LTRO 2 ended and the ECB stopped ‘printing’ for want of a better word). The most recent drop reflects #SPailout fears and the Greek election leaving us still 1 sigma below fair-value here – reflecting, we…
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Good vs Evil – Which Side will you Choose? $TFM $RAI

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

My latest Motley Fool post covers Reynolds America ($RAI) and The Fresh Market (TFM); you can read it here.

Other stocks of interest covered in previous articles: $P, $DSW, $PPC, $DRI, $GHDX, $GMRN, $ELRC, $MGRC, $MELI, $AKAM, $NTES, $GOLD, $PAAS, $ADP, $PAYX, $TXN, $CHK, $TSO, $POT, $FCX, $APL

I own shares in $APL and $FCX.





BaiL OuT MaGNiFiCo!!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

.

EUROBAIL ESPANA

.
EURO MATADOR
.

GOYA'S MUTTI

 

.
HYPE

 

.
FIAT GUERNICA
.

 

FROB

 

.
FROB

 

.
OLLIE REHN SCARY EUROCLOWN

 

.
THE BANKER AND THE POLITICIAN

 

.
EUROBAIL ESPANA II





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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