Archive for January, 2013

Daily Market Commentary: Higher Volume Trading, But Apple Doesn’t Kill Rally

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Apple’s earnings were always going to weigh on today’s action, but markets held up well.  The Nasdaq did shed near 1% on a significant increase in volume, but it didn’t negate the breakout. Technicals remained in the bullish camp with little loss in strength.

The Nasdaq 100 also experienced the Apple drop, but it’s more range bound than the Nasdaq.  Technicals  shifted negative with ‘sell’ triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume.  However, until 2,700 breaks the overall action remains bullish.

The S&P churned, but technicals held their ground.  Note, the 10% threshold to shift towards profit taking (selling covered calls) is 1,534. A couple more 1% days will be enough to do it. It’s getting close, but it’s not there yet.

The Russell 2000 has already reached the 10% threshold.  Mean reversion will kick in soon.

For Friday, prepare to take profits in the Russell 2000, with the S&P likely to follow soon.  It will be important for the Nasdaq to hang on to its breakout for other indices to maintain their strength.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.

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Weekly Market Commentary: New 52-Week High Spike

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

The rally is close to a top as marked by the spike high in the 19-day EMA for both the NYSE and Nasdaq. For the NYSE, this spike is the highest in over 10 years, so there is a good chance Friday’s strong finish will turn out to be the actual top for this phase of the rally.  While the Nasdaq spike hasn’t reached the heights of 2003, it has exceeded spikes from previous late event rallies (e.g 2007).

The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA is also heavily overbought and has reached a spike high. However, spike highs in this breadth metric rarely match the actual top in the market.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents finally reached declining resistance. A good opportunity to look for a pullback in the index.

Despite coming close to a high, the Nasdaq hasn’t cleared the swing high in 2012. Given the spike highs in the aforementioned breadth indices, it’s unlikely the Nasdaq will get much beyond 3,200 before it starts a new downleg.

The Russell 2000 maintained its early breakout and has moved well beyond support, to the point it needs to consolidate the move. Technicals are heavily overbought.

Finally, the S&P pushed higher, but volume buying was light.

Based on action in Nasdaq breadth indices there is a good chance a swing high will come into play next week. The Russell 2000 will probably peak first, then the Nasdaq and finally the S&P.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies


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Daily Market Commentary: “Golden Crosses”

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Markets experienced low volume trading, with slight losses on Friday’s close. The biggest change was a couple of “Golden Crosses” for certain indices between 50-day and 200-day MAs, a long term bullish signal.  Another reason to suggest the next fall will be a buying opportunity.

The S&P had little to show on the day, “Golden Cross” or otherwise. The long standing relative shift to Small Caps has been running since the end of November, but this looks to be slowly changing in favor of Large Cap stocks.

The Russell 2000 inched higher, although technicals are heavily overbought and the MACD is close to a ‘sell’ trigger.

The Nasdaq 100 was one of the indices to develop a “Golden Cross”; the Nasdaq already experienced its  ”Golden Cross” a couple of weeks ago. There was a MACD ‘sell’ trigger which offset a new On-Balance-Volume ‘buy’ trigger.

The semiconductor index also finished the day with “Golden Cross” between 200-day and 50-day MAs.  Bullish action in the semiconductor index is a key driver of the rallies in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, and this is likely to remain the case in the weeks ahead.

Tomorrow is likely to see more light action.  Markets are too overbought to suggest the rally has much room to run.  Although when markets take their next swing down it should offer a good buying opportunity.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.

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Daily Market Commentary: New Highs for S&P

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

When I wrote at the weekend I thought we had seen our market top (at least for the S&P), but today’s action surpassed it with the week not half way done. The new high doesn’t change the heavily overbought nature of the rally, but what goes high can go higher.

Despite the new high in the S&P, the relative shift from Large Caps to Small Caps continues.

The Nasdaq was more subdued, but buying momentum is building, as marked by improving On-Balance-Volume.

However, it’s clear the components of the Nasdaq are up against a wall with the percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA stuck around the 80% mark, with technicals already showing ‘sell’ signals.

While the semiconductor index has the makings of a bearish ‘Shooting Star’.

The Russell 2000 was also relatively quiet, with today’s action trading inside yesterday’s range.  However, the index continues to enjoy a relative advantage over both the Nasdaq and the S&P.

While the S&P is overbought in the short term, it hasn’t reached the 10% above the 200-day MA which is frequently associated with swing highs.  This point will be reached at 1,537, which at current rates is still 3 or 4 days away (assuming no declines!).

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements.

Zignals offers a full suite of FREE financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts, stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks, tabbed stock quote watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager, active stock screener with fundamental trading strategy support and trading system builder. Forex, precious metal and energy commodities too. Build your own strategy and sell it in the MarketPlace to earn real cash.

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Funding for Naples Bus Service Cut 40% With Predictable Results: Buses Run Out of Gas

Courtesy of Mish.

A 40% funding cut to bus services in Naples, Italy had predictable results: Bus Service Grinds to Halt as Tanks Run Dry

Bus service in the southern Italian city of Naples has ground to a halt after the city transport company ran out of money for fuel.

Valeria Peti, of the ANM transport company, says only 30 of the usual 300 buses left the depot Wednesday morning, and they all had to return before their tanks ran dry.

Naples’ municipal services have been in the news before, most notably when mountains of garbage have piled up. Peti says in this case, the company that provides gas for city buses refused to replenish them without payment guarantees.

ANM says government funding for Naples’ bus service has been cut by 40 percent.

“Services Not Guaranteed”

Here is the public service announcement as described in Bus Operator Runs Out of Fuel.

Due to a lack of fuel our services are not guaranteed,” transport operator ANM announced on its website and at bus stops around the city, enraging commuters.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



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Guest Post: The Linchpin Lie: How Global Collapse Will Be Sold To The Masses

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog,

In our modern world there exist certain institutions of power.  Not government committees, alphabet agencies, corporate lobbies, or even standard military organizations; no, these are the mere “middle-men” of power.  The errand boys.  The well paid hitmen of the global mafia.  They are not the strategists or the decision makers. 

Instead, I speak of institutions which introduce the newest paradigms.  Who write the propaganda.  Who issue the orders from on high.  I speak of the hubs of elitism which have initiated nearly every policy mechanism of our government for the past several decades.  I am talking about the Council On Foreign Relations, the Tavistock Institute, the Heritage Foundation (a socialist organization posing as conservative), the Bilderberg Group, as well as the corporate foils that they use to enact globalization, such as Monsanto, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, the Carlyle Group, etc.

Many of these organizations and corporations operate a revolving door within the U.S. government.  Monsanto has champions, like Donald Rumsfeld who was on the board of directors of its Searle Pharmaceuticals branch, who later went on to help the company force numerous dangerous products including Aspartame through the FDA.  Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have a veritable merry-go-round of corrupt banking agents which are appointed to important White House and Treasury positions on a regular basis REGARDLESS of which party happens to be in office.  Most prominent politicians are all members of the Council on Foreign Relations, an organization which has openly admitted on multiple occasions that their goal is the destruction of U.S. sovereignty and the formation of a “one world government” or “supranational union” (their words, not mine).

However, one organization seems to rear its ugly head at the forefront of the most sweeping mass propaganda operations of our time, and has been linked to the creation of the most atrocious military methodologies, including the use of false flag events.  I am of course referring to the Rand Corporation, a California based “think tank” whose influence reaches into nearly every sphere of our society, from politics, to war, to entertainment. 

The Rand Corporation deals in what I would call “absolute gray”.  The goal of the group from its very inception was to promote a social atmosphere of moral ambiguity in the name of personal and…
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Is Germany preparing for future capital controls?

 

Source: facebook.com via Jonathan on Pinterest

Is Germany preparing for future capital controls?

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, Casey Research

The best indicator of a chess player's form is his ability to sense the climax of the game.

–Boris Spassky, World Chess Champion, 1969-1972

You've likely heard that the German central bank announced it will begin withdrawing part of its massive gold holdings from the United States as well as all its holdings from France. By 2020, Bundesbank says it wants half its gold reserves stored in its own vault in Germany. 

Why would it want to physically move the metal from New York? It's not as if US vaults are not secure, and since Germany already owns the gold, does it really matter where it sits?

You may recall that Hugo Chávez did the same thing in late 2011, repatriating much of his country's gold reserves from London. However, this isn't a third-world dictatorship; Germany is a major ally of the US. So what's going on?

Pawn to A3

On the surface, it may seem innocuous for Germany to move some pallets of gold closer to home. Some observers note that since Russia isn't likely to be invading Germany anytime soon – one of the original reasons Germany had for storing its gold outside the country – the move is only natural and no big deal. But Germany's gold stash represents roughly 10% of the world's gold reserves, and the cost of moving it is not trivial, so we see greater import in the move.

The Bundesbank said the purpose of the move was to "build trust and confidence domestically, and the ability to exchange gold for foreign currencies at gold-trading centers abroad within a short space of time." It's just satisfying the worries of the commoners, in the mainstream view, as well as giving themselves the ability to complete transactions faster. As evidence that it's nothing more than this, Bundesbank points out that half of Germany's gold will remain in New York and London (the US portion of reserves will only be reduced from 45% to 37%).

Sounds reasonable. But these…
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Don’t Be Fooled, Real 4Q12 GDP Was Even Worse Than 0.14%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research.

 

A few weeks ago we commented that the Great Global Rig of 2012 was ending. Yesterday’s GDP print confirms this.

 

We noted in the second half of 2012 that the US Federal Government was engaging in a massive rig to make the economy look better than it really was in order to help the Obama re-election campaign. This showed up in the jobs data as well as the 3Q12 GDP print.

 

Now the election is over and we’re stuck with the hangover. The mainstream media likes to claim that the fourth quarter GDP number is the result of the Government cutting spending, but the truth is that Government outlays increased 12% in 4Q12. 

 

Indeed, the sad truth is that the US economy is actually in far worse shape than the official data indicates. As we’ve noted before, the Feds dramatically understate inflation to make GDP growth look better.

 

Case in point, the GDP deflator today is a mere 0.6% when real inflation is closer to 8%. So even the -0.14% print is in fact overstating real growth dramatically. If you account for the real increases in the cost of living in the US, GDP shrank well over 1% in 4Q12.

 

The impact of this will be huge. Remember that the Fed only just announced QE 3 and QE 4 in the second half of 2012. The fact that we’ve got this terrible GDP print in spite of this doesn’t do much for the Fed’s claim that QE will stimulate growth.

 

As we noted in yesterday’s article, the Fed is already splintering on the benefits of QE. For the US to print such an ugly GDP number right after QE 3 and QE 4 were announced doesn’t bode well for more aggressive policy from the Fed. But then again, we are talking about the Fed here, so they could very easily claim that the bad GDP print is because QE 3 and QE 4 are not big enough.

 

Regardless of this, it’s clear the market is peaking out. The Russell 2000 has begun to diverge from the Dow and S&P 500. Former leaders like Apple and RIMM are tanking, while companies that are losing business rapidly (Amazon) continue to rally.

 

This is precisely the sort of…
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Crunching Complex Concepts In The Corner – Caption Contest

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Is this what tax season prep looks like when you have a Congressionally-imposed ban from using TurboTax? We will let readers decide…

 





Major Stock Indexes and ETFs Slip After Big January Gains

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Major U.S. stock indexes and ETFs close January with a down day

red arrow, index ETFs, ETFs, spy, dia, qqq, iwmfiscal cliff, initial unemployment claimsU.S. stocks and ETFs posted a big January with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gaining 5.8% for the month, along with the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) notching a 5% monthly gain.  Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) remain at overbought levels and need to move sideways to unwind overbought conditions.

The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) closed just below the psychologically and technically important 1500 level, U.S. stocks declined Thursday after a report showed jobless claims rose, but benchmark indexes still produced one of Wall Street’s strongest starting months in years.

The gains in January bode well for the rest of the year as all of Stock Traders Almanac’s January Indicators, the Santa Rally, the first five days and the January barometer, all came in positive.  This has happened 27 times since since 1950 and was followed by yearly gains 25 times.  Read “January Indicator Trifecta Leads To Next 11 Month Gains”

For the last day of month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) fell 0.33%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) slipped 0.25%, the Nasdaq 100 (NYSEARCA:QQQ) dropped 0.26% and the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) bucked the trend with a gain of 0.58%.

In other major markets, oil (NYSEARCA:USO) lost 0.48% to close at $97.49/bbl and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) fell 0.86% to close at $1662/oz.

In economic reports, initial unemployment claims climbed to 368,000 and January Chicago PMI came in at a better than expected 55.6, putting the index back into expansionary territory.  Tomorrow comes the closely watched monthly Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment report, along with Markit PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

The Senate voted to extend the debt ceiling debate into mid-May, matching the House’s action, and the President is expected to sign it.  Now the stage is set for a two part debate, the “Fiscal Cliff Part 2″ sequestration debate due to come to a head on March 1st and the debt ceiling standoff now postponed until May.

Bottom line:  Stock indexes and ETFs close out a strong month and consolidate below significant resistance levels.  At overbought levels, more sideways action or further declines could be expected to unwind some of the frothiness
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Phil's Favorites

Decoding the Fed

 

Decoding the Fed

Courtesy of John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline

“In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

"There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effe...



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Zero Hedge

The Verdict Is In: "Negative Rates Are A Huge Negative For Savers, Low-Income People, And Investors"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

With the IMF's annual meeting now concluded, few topics discussed during the past week which saw the IMF downgrade its outlook for the global economy to the lowest GDP since the global financial crisis...

... evinced as powerful a response as negative interest rates, and for good reason: long seen as the last "red line" of central banks before they are forced to admit defeat, some $15 trillion in debt now trades w...



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Digital Currencies

Five hurdles blockchain faces to revolutionise banking

 

Five hurdles blockchain faces to revolutionise banking

Shutterstock

Courtesy of Markos Zachariadis, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

Blockchain is touted as the next step in the digital revolution, a technology that will change every industry from music to wast...



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Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold stocks are swinging back forth between the range, and a break out swing higher is due. Gold stocks are holding a near perfect Wyckoff accumulation pattern. All should get ready to play this sector. Yet we must recognize that gold stocks are a one of the most crazy rides at the stock market fair, so play very carefully.

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GDX PnF chart from within the video

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Important channels around the HUI.
...

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The Technical Traders

Treasuries Pause Near Resistance Before The Next Rally

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team believes the US Treasuries and the US Dollar will continue to strengthen over the next 2 to 6+ weeks as foreign market and emerging market credit and debt concerns outweigh any concerns originating from the US economy or political theater.  Overall, the major global economies will likely continue to see strength related to their currencies and debt instruments simply because the foreign market and emerging markets are dramatically more fragile than the more mature major global economies.

We believe the US Treasuries may surprise investors by rallying from current levels, near price resistance, to levels above $151 on the TLT chart. 

Our belief ...



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Insider Scoop

48 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Hepion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: HEPA) shares climbed 43.2% to close at $3.58 on Thursday after the company announced the publication of a research article, "A Pan-Cyclophilin Inhibitor, CRV431, Decreases Fibrosis and Tumor Development in Chronic Liver Disease Models," in the peer-reviewed Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.
  • Synthesis Energy Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: SES) rose 26.9% to close at $9.20 after surging 12.24% on Wednesday.
  • Assembly Biosciences, Inc...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bank Index Breakout? Stock Market Bulls Sure Hope So

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the most important sectors of the stock market is the banking industry and bank stocks.

When the banks are healthy, the economy is likely doing well. And when bank stocks are participating in a market rally, then it bodes well for the broader stock market.

In today’s chart, we look at the Bank Index (BKX).

As you can see, the banks have been in a falling channel for the past 20 months. As well, the banks have been lagging the broader market during this time as well – see the Ratio in the bottom half of the chart above.

That said, th...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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