Archive for April, 2013

20 Signs That The Next Great Economic Depression Has Started In Europe

20 Signs That The Next Great Economic Depression Has Started In Europe

Courtesy of Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse

The next Great Depression is already happening – it just hasn't reached the United States yet.  Things in Europe just continue to get worse and worse, and yet most people in the United States still don't get it.  All the time I have people ask me when the "economic collapse" is going to happen. 

For ages I have been warning that the next major wave of the ongoing economic collapse would begin in Europe, and that is exactly what is happening. Both Greece and Spain already have levels of unemployment that are greater than anything the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Pay close attention to what is happening over there, because it is coming here too.  Europe is a lot like the United States.  Both countries are drowning in unprecedented levels of debt, and both have overleveraged banking systems that resemble a house of cards. 

The reason why the U.S. does not look like Europe yet is because we have thrown all caution to the wind.  The Federal Reserve is printing money as if there is no tomorrow and the U.S. government is savagely destroying the future that our children and our grandchildren were supposed to have by stealing more than 100 million dollars from them every single hour of every single day.  We have gone "all in" on kicking the can down the road even though it means destroying the future of America.  But the alternative scares the living daylights out of our politicians.  When nations such as Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy tried to slow down the rate at which their debts were rising, the results were absolutely devastating.  A full-blown economic depression is raging across southern Europe and it is rapidly spreading into northern Europe.  Eventually it will spread to the rest of the globe as well.

The following are 20 signs that the next Great Depression has already started in Europe…

#1 The unemployment rate in France has surged to 10.6 percent, and the number of jobless claims in that country recently set a new all-time record.

#2 Unemployment in the eurozone as a whole is sitting at an all-time record of 12 percent.

#3
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Nigel Farage On “Wholesale, Violent Revolution” In Europe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a little under two minutes, Nigel Farage sums up the utter farce that “the religion” that Europe has become. He explains, his fear is that what will break up the Euro, “is not the economics of it, but wholesale, violent revolution,” in the Mediterranean, and that is “all so unnecessary!” Speaking at Simon Black’s Offshore Tactics workshop, the so-called modern day Cicero goes on to point out that France’s Hollande is “the number 1 among idiots running countries around the world,” and worries that Merkel’s pending election means there will be more and more ‘tough talk and action’ as she shows the people she is in charge. Simply put he warns, alongside Ron Paul, that if you have money in European banks, “Get your money out,” because, “when the next phase of the disaster comes, they will come for you.”

 





Guest Post: American Energy Partners – Aubrey McClendon’s Next Energy Empire?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Joao Peixe of OilPrice.com

American Energy Partners: McClendon’s Next Energy Empire?

Less than a month after being ejected from Chesapeake Energy, the charismatic, yet controversial, Aubrey McClendon, has launched his next venture in the form of the American Energy Partners.

Forbes were sent a copy of the email that Aubrey sent to his many contacts in the oil and gas industry in his search for potential acquisitions, or assets that his new company could get involved with:

Good day to you!  I have started a new E&P company, American Energy Partners, LP, and I am interested in being contacted regarding onshore US assets.  My goal is to build a substantial E&P company both through the drillbit and through acquisitions of producing properties.

In particular, I will be looking for deals with a lot of drilling left on them and will also consider undeveloped acreage deals – plus, I am not scared of natural gas.

Thanks, Aubrey

McClendon has also erected three billboards around Oklahoma City stating that American Energy Partners are hiring new staff; a genuinely great opportunity be part of something from the beginning. Whilst McClendon has had a rough time lately, there is no denying his genius at building business empires.

The terms of his exit agreement from Chesapeake mean that he cannot hire any current Chesapeake employees until after January 2014, but he can hire:

(a) employees that have been assigned to him to provide the accounting support set forth in his employment agreement, (b) any employee assigned to Mr. McClendon as an assistant, (c) any employee who has been terminated by the Company (but who has not voluntarily departed the Company), (d) any employee who elects (or has elected) to accept any voluntary severance or retirement program offered by the Company or (e) any employee for whom the Company consents in advance to the soliciting and hiring by Mr. McClendon.





Why Is The VIX Not Higher (Or Much Lower)?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

People always stop and stare at traffic accidents (no matter how minor) and arguing couples (no matter how unattractive); ConvergEx’s Nick Colas has the same problem with the ever-moribund CBOE VIX Index, even though it’s essentially the exact opposite of the proverbial train wreck.  Even with the zombie-like march higher for US stocks, surely the uncertain state of the world would demand more than a 13-handle VIX?  Well, it doesn’t; and Nick offers up some off-the-beaten track explanations for why “13” isn’t the right answer.  Implied volatility should either be higher or…  (gulp)… much lower.  The biggest overlooked factor for both directions: the role of technology in society and commerce.

 

 

Via ConvergEx’s Nick Colas,

Remember the bright red convertible driven by John Travolta’s character in the movie Pulp Fiction?  It’s the one he used for his date with the boss’s wife, which started with dinner and dancing but ended with syringe to the heart.  Well, that car was actually Quentin Tarantino’s personal daily driver, and it was stolen during the making of the movie.  After 19 years on the run, police finally found it two weeks ago.  And Quentin will get it back.  “And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee.”

I can’t but feel a little jealous that even Quentin’s cars – let alone the writer/director/producer himself – lead a more exciting life than I do.  Who knows what has happened to that red Chevelle, or in it, or around it, over the last 2 decades?   Let alone that Uma and John created their own little bit of movie magic riding around LA in the car.  And let’s not even discuss how Tarantino will celebrate its return.

At the other end of the excitement spectrum, we have the sleepwalking U.S. equity markets and an equally somnambulant CBOE VIX index plodding along in its footsteps.  The drip-drip-drip move higher for domestic stocks certainly fits the bill for a low volatility environment.  The old saw that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down has never been truer than now.  And this market feels like it is an old man walking up those stairs, arthritic knees and all.

Since the VIX is a short-term measure of expected volatility – 30 days  –
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Sergey Aleynikov Suffers The Full Wrath Of A Vindictive US Judicial System

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Commingle‘ hundreds of millions in client funds which are subsequently stolen rehypothecated as collateral by JPMorgan while your firm goes bankrupt as a result of your idiotic prop trading decisions, and what happens? Your toughest choice is whether to vacation in Fiji or St Barths. That said, being former CEO of the world’s biggest TBTF hedge fund also known as Goldman, a former governor and senator, and most importantly bundler for the president of the “transparent” administration certainly helps. On the other hand, be a lowly algo trader and quant programmer working at the aforementioned hedge fund, and having dared to “steal” secret trading client code that can “manipulate markets” and what – you get the full wrath and anger of the FBI, the Federal Court System, and now the Supreme Court.

The story of former Goldman programmer Sergey Aleynikov is well known to frequent readers: he was one of the first algo traders to bring attention to the arcane field in the summer of 2009, when aside from a few ‘fringe blogs’, nobody had even heard of algorithmic trading or the HFT scourge that less than a year later would result in the Flash Crash (and countless mini and maxi flash crashes since). What was remarkable about Sergey’s case, unlike that of say… Jon Corzine, is how quickly the law proceeded to throw the book at him and to see him wind up in jail.

How else: after all he dared to “steal” code (a practice engaged by every single algo and quant programmer when they switch jobs by the way, if perhaps a little less obviously) from Goldman Sachs itself. For that alone he must fry.

And sure enough, he will.

Because the last time we read about Sergey in February of 2012, a federal appeals court in new York overturned his sentence of corporate espionage that had been handed to him in December 2010 by a federal jury, on the grounds that federal espionage laws did not cover Aleynikov’s alleged illegal activity.

But then last August, NY’s new State Attorney General, Cyrus Vance Jr, still humiliated from the whole DSK affair, resurrected the case acaginst the Russian and charged Aleynikov with two felonies under New York state law, unlawful use of secret scientific material and unlawful…
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Bullish Options Change Hands On Hartford Financial Services Group

 

Today’s tickers: HIG, NUAN & XLU

HIG - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. – Shares in insurer, Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., are trading at their highest level since May of 2011 today after the company posted better than expected first-quarter earnings after the close on Monday. The stock is up 3.5% at $28.17 as of 11:20 a.m. ET this morning and some options players appear to be positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the near term. The most actively traded contracts on HIG as measured by volume today are the May $29 strike calls, with upwards of 7,000 lots in play versus open interest of 2,184 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased during the first 30 minutes of the trading session for an average premium of $0.38 each. Traders long the $29 calls stand ready to profit at expiration in the event that HIG’s shares rally another 4.3% over the current price of $28.17 to surpass the average breakeven point at $29.38. Hartford’s shares are up roughly 80% off a 52-week low of $15.56 set back in August of 2012.

NUAN - Nuance Communications, Inc. – Investors in speech recognition software maker, Nuance Communications, Inc., are taking it on the chin today as shares in the name tumble on the lower than expected second-quarter earnings and revenue reported by the company ahead of the opening bell. Shares in NUAN dropped as much as 19% to a one-month low of $18.86 this morning. Double-digit percentage declines in the price of the underlying appears to have spurred some contrarian trading in Nuance options. Strategists positioning for shares in the audio software provider to rebound during the next couple of months snapped up around 1,700 calls at the Jun $20 strike for an average premium of $0.90 each in the early going today. The bullish bet may pay off at June expiration if shares in Nuance manage to rally 11% off the $18.86 low to surpass the average breakeven point at…
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Is Stability In Japanese Bonds Signalling Gold’s Next Leg Higher?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While intraday ranges on Japanese government bonds (JGB) remain relatively high to the last ten years average volatility, the market has begun to deal better with the unprecedented flows from the BoJ day after day. This in turn has compressed the hedges in JGBs (implied volatility has fallen). This has occurred for two reasons: first, Japanese banks (after front-running the BoJ to all-time record low yields) have likely reduced duration (and thus the need for more protection); and second, the initial fear fear has worn off (as we see again and again in volatility flares) and with it the need for preemptive collateral satisfying asset liquidations.

As we noted here, there is a very explicit link between the volatility (or risk) associated with one of the world’s lowest yield and supposedly risk-free sovereign bond complexes and the need for liquidity (or cash over gold or commodities). The last two weeks has seen JGB bond vol drop and gold rally as the correlation (which appears to have strong causal links) continues; and suggests notably more upside for Gold (especially as CoT data shows net longs remain extremely low).

In short: screaming JGB vol (among other things) pushed gold much lower. How much higher will it pull it back now as the mean reversion reasserts itself?

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg





Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on May 31, 2013

The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly gain of 1.81%. All three S&P 500 MAs and four of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling “Invested”.

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy, only one of which (DBC) is showing a sell signal.


Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the ETFReplay.com website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the top or back in at the bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve occasionally experienced over the past year.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops.

A look back at the 10- and 12-month moving averages in the Dow during the…
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CME Chairman On Gold: “People Don’t Want Gold Certificates, They Want the Real Product”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty BlitzKrieg

What’s interesting about gold, when we had that big break two weeks ago we saw all the gold stocks trade down significantly, we saw all the gold products trade down significantly, but one thing that did not trade down, was gold coins, tangible real  gold.  That’s going to show you, people don’t want certificates, they don’t want anything else.  They want the real product .

Terrence Duffy, President and Executive Chairman of CME Group Inc,. on Bloomberg TV

I’m actually still in a state of shock that the head of the CME Group would make such an observation and in such blunt terms.  I mean the guy admits that volume on his exchanges suck, yet basically claims paper gold (one of their marquee products) is becoming irrelevant.  In my mind there are two likely explanations for this.  1) This is how he has started to feel personally and he is loading up on physical gold rather than his company’s paper products and would like some cover if that is ever unearthed. 2) This is what people close to the gold market are telling him and he’d rather make it clear he understands that paper is paper and gold is gold and that there is a big difference.  So “caveat emptor” if you are hanging around the COMEX.

His comments on gold come in at the 0:40 mark.  Simply stunning.





Daily Market Commentary: Significant Accumulation

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Technology spent another day in the headlines.  Yesterday there was a breakout in the Nasdaq, now today there was heavier volume buying to back it up. The semiconductor index is the ‘news’ index to follow.  It’s breakout will largely determine how long the rallies in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Technicals are net bullish, another tick in the bullish column for these indices. Even the ‘Death Cross’ might not last too long.


The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq pushed away from support, building on its breakout. Technicals are also net bullish across both indices.

However, the S&P and Russell 2000 haven’t yet followed the lead of the Tech indices, although the S&P may have hinted at a breakout.

It looks like there is still more to come for this rally. Will the S&P make its break Wednesday?

Follow Me on Twitter

Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

JOIN ZIGNALS TODAY – IT’S FREE!





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Visualizing The 150 Apps That Power The Gig Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Go back in time a decade, and you’d have a tough time convincing anyone that they would be “employed” through an app on their phone.

And yet, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins explains, in a short period of time, the emergence of the smartphone has enabled the gig economy to flourish into a multi-trillion dollar global market. And by leveraging apps like Uber, Airbnb, and Etsy, it’s estimated that ...



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Phil's Favorites

What's going on with Blue Apron?

By Ilene 

The Blue Apron business model appears, perhaps, flawed. While the service is convenient, I think it would appeal mostly to very busy people who don't have time to shop for food -- but enjoy cooking -- and have enough money that the trade off between paying for food delivery vs. spending time shopping is worth it. Here's the unfortunate stock chart and some numbers from Yahoo:

The company has been losing money, and is projected to lose money again next year. Revenue is projected to decrease in 2019 from the 2018 level, but pick up again in 2020, though still below 2018's revenue. Maybe a larger company that could integrate APRN's services into its existing infrastructure should acquire APRN and save it from its apparent...



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Chart School

Palladium minor cycle bottom

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Once again RealVision TV posts another trade idea, long palladium. We shall review it with our RTT cycle tools and parallel channels.







Any trader will be concerned with the supply shock at $1800 which pushed down price quickly. Profit taking maybe, sure! The question, is there more supply out (or more profit taking) there ready to dump on the market, either now or after any minor advance. This why waiting for the 'C' wave of the A-B-C to form over some more time is a good idea, and once done, we want to see solid buying moving price up before acting, after all we do not want to be early or a lonely bull (Richard Wyckoff logic). 

The parallel channel highl...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks Sending Bearish Message To Stocks, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Quality bull markets prefer to see Banks stronger than the broad markets or at least keeping up with it. Concerns often crop up when banks reflect relative weakness compared to the S&P.

This chart looks at the Bank Index (BKX) over the past few years, reflecting a falling channel of lower highs and lower lows has taken place inside of falling channel (1). This falling channel has now been in play for the past 15-months.

The index hit the bottom of the channel in December of 2018 and a counter-trend rally took place. The rally off the December lows saw the index hit the top...



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Insider Scoop

Analyst: US Sanctions 'May Not Kill Huawei'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Wednesday that limits how "foreign adversaries" conduct business with U.S. companies.

What Happened

The Department of Commerce said China's Huawei and 70 related companies will be included in the "Entity ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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