Archive for April, 2013

20 Signs That The Next Great Economic Depression Has Started In Europe

20 Signs That The Next Great Economic Depression Has Started In Europe

Courtesy of Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse

The next Great Depression is already happening – it just hasn't reached the United States yet.  Things in Europe just continue to get worse and worse, and yet most people in the United States still don't get it.  All the time I have people ask me when the "economic collapse" is going to happen. 

For ages I have been warning that the next major wave of the ongoing economic collapse would begin in Europe, and that is exactly what is happening. Both Greece and Spain already have levels of unemployment that are greater than anything the U.S. experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Pay close attention to what is happening over there, because it is coming here too.  Europe is a lot like the United States.  Both countries are drowning in unprecedented levels of debt, and both have overleveraged banking systems that resemble a house of cards. 

The reason why the U.S. does not look like Europe yet is because we have thrown all caution to the wind.  The Federal Reserve is printing money as if there is no tomorrow and the U.S. government is savagely destroying the future that our children and our grandchildren were supposed to have by stealing more than 100 million dollars from them every single hour of every single day.  We have gone "all in" on kicking the can down the road even though it means destroying the future of America.  But the alternative scares the living daylights out of our politicians.  When nations such as Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy tried to slow down the rate at which their debts were rising, the results were absolutely devastating.  A full-blown economic depression is raging across southern Europe and it is rapidly spreading into northern Europe.  Eventually it will spread to the rest of the globe as well.

The following are 20 signs that the next Great Depression has already started in Europe…

#1 The unemployment rate in France has surged to 10.6 percent, and the number of jobless claims in that country recently set a new all-time record.

#2 Unemployment in the eurozone as a whole is sitting at an all-time record of 12 percent.

#3
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Nigel Farage On “Wholesale, Violent Revolution” In Europe

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a little under two minutes, Nigel Farage sums up the utter farce that “the religion” that Europe has become. He explains, his fear is that what will break up the Euro, “is not the economics of it, but wholesale, violent revolution,” in the Mediterranean, and that is “all so unnecessary!” Speaking at Simon Black’s Offshore Tactics workshop, the so-called modern day Cicero goes on to point out that France’s Hollande is “the number 1 among idiots running countries around the world,” and worries that Merkel’s pending election means there will be more and more ‘tough talk and action’ as she shows the people she is in charge. Simply put he warns, alongside Ron Paul, that if you have money in European banks, “Get your money out,” because, “when the next phase of the disaster comes, they will come for you.”

 





Guest Post: American Energy Partners – Aubrey McClendon’s Next Energy Empire?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Joao Peixe of OilPrice.com

American Energy Partners: McClendon’s Next Energy Empire?

Less than a month after being ejected from Chesapeake Energy, the charismatic, yet controversial, Aubrey McClendon, has launched his next venture in the form of the American Energy Partners.

Forbes were sent a copy of the email that Aubrey sent to his many contacts in the oil and gas industry in his search for potential acquisitions, or assets that his new company could get involved with:

Good day to you!  I have started a new E&P company, American Energy Partners, LP, and I am interested in being contacted regarding onshore US assets.  My goal is to build a substantial E&P company both through the drillbit and through acquisitions of producing properties.

In particular, I will be looking for deals with a lot of drilling left on them and will also consider undeveloped acreage deals – plus, I am not scared of natural gas.

Thanks, Aubrey

McClendon has also erected three billboards around Oklahoma City stating that American Energy Partners are hiring new staff; a genuinely great opportunity be part of something from the beginning. Whilst McClendon has had a rough time lately, there is no denying his genius at building business empires.

The terms of his exit agreement from Chesapeake mean that he cannot hire any current Chesapeake employees until after January 2014, but he can hire:

(a) employees that have been assigned to him to provide the accounting support set forth in his employment agreement, (b) any employee assigned to Mr. McClendon as an assistant, (c) any employee who has been terminated by the Company (but who has not voluntarily departed the Company), (d) any employee who elects (or has elected) to accept any voluntary severance or retirement program offered by the Company or (e) any employee for whom the Company consents in advance to the soliciting and hiring by Mr. McClendon.





Why Is The VIX Not Higher (Or Much Lower)?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

People always stop and stare at traffic accidents (no matter how minor) and arguing couples (no matter how unattractive); ConvergEx’s Nick Colas has the same problem with the ever-moribund CBOE VIX Index, even though it’s essentially the exact opposite of the proverbial train wreck.  Even with the zombie-like march higher for US stocks, surely the uncertain state of the world would demand more than a 13-handle VIX?  Well, it doesn’t; and Nick offers up some off-the-beaten track explanations for why “13” isn’t the right answer.  Implied volatility should either be higher or…  (gulp)… much lower.  The biggest overlooked factor for both directions: the role of technology in society and commerce.

 

 

Via ConvergEx’s Nick Colas,

Remember the bright red convertible driven by John Travolta’s character in the movie Pulp Fiction?  It’s the one he used for his date with the boss’s wife, which started with dinner and dancing but ended with syringe to the heart.  Well, that car was actually Quentin Tarantino’s personal daily driver, and it was stolen during the making of the movie.  After 19 years on the run, police finally found it two weeks ago.  And Quentin will get it back.  “And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee.”

I can’t but feel a little jealous that even Quentin’s cars – let alone the writer/director/producer himself – lead a more exciting life than I do.  Who knows what has happened to that red Chevelle, or in it, or around it, over the last 2 decades?   Let alone that Uma and John created their own little bit of movie magic riding around LA in the car.  And let’s not even discuss how Tarantino will celebrate its return.

At the other end of the excitement spectrum, we have the sleepwalking U.S. equity markets and an equally somnambulant CBOE VIX index plodding along in its footsteps.  The drip-drip-drip move higher for domestic stocks certainly fits the bill for a low volatility environment.  The old saw that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down has never been truer than now.  And this market feels like it is an old man walking up those stairs, arthritic knees and all.

Since the VIX is a short-term measure of expected volatility – 30 days  –
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Sergey Aleynikov Suffers The Full Wrath Of A Vindictive US Judicial System

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Commingle‘ hundreds of millions in client funds which are subsequently stolen rehypothecated as collateral by JPMorgan while your firm goes bankrupt as a result of your idiotic prop trading decisions, and what happens? Your toughest choice is whether to vacation in Fiji or St Barths. That said, being former CEO of the world’s biggest TBTF hedge fund also known as Goldman, a former governor and senator, and most importantly bundler for the president of the “transparent” administration certainly helps. On the other hand, be a lowly algo trader and quant programmer working at the aforementioned hedge fund, and having dared to “steal” secret trading client code that can “manipulate markets” and what – you get the full wrath and anger of the FBI, the Federal Court System, and now the Supreme Court.

The story of former Goldman programmer Sergey Aleynikov is well known to frequent readers: he was one of the first algo traders to bring attention to the arcane field in the summer of 2009, when aside from a few ‘fringe blogs’, nobody had even heard of algorithmic trading or the HFT scourge that less than a year later would result in the Flash Crash (and countless mini and maxi flash crashes since). What was remarkable about Sergey’s case, unlike that of say… Jon Corzine, is how quickly the law proceeded to throw the book at him and to see him wind up in jail.

How else: after all he dared to “steal” code (a practice engaged by every single algo and quant programmer when they switch jobs by the way, if perhaps a little less obviously) from Goldman Sachs itself. For that alone he must fry.

And sure enough, he will.

Because the last time we read about Sergey in February of 2012, a federal appeals court in new York overturned his sentence of corporate espionage that had been handed to him in December 2010 by a federal jury, on the grounds that federal espionage laws did not cover Aleynikov’s alleged illegal activity.

But then last August, NY’s new State Attorney General, Cyrus Vance Jr, still humiliated from the whole DSK affair, resurrected the case acaginst the Russian and charged Aleynikov with two felonies under New York state law, unlawful use of secret scientific material and unlawful…
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Bullish Options Change Hands On Hartford Financial Services Group

 

Today’s tickers: HIG, NUAN & XLU

HIG - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. – Shares in insurer, Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., are trading at their highest level since May of 2011 today after the company posted better than expected first-quarter earnings after the close on Monday. The stock is up 3.5% at $28.17 as of 11:20 a.m. ET this morning and some options players appear to be positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains in the near term. The most actively traded contracts on HIG as measured by volume today are the May $29 strike calls, with upwards of 7,000 lots in play versus open interest of 2,184 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased during the first 30 minutes of the trading session for an average premium of $0.38 each. Traders long the $29 calls stand ready to profit at expiration in the event that HIG’s shares rally another 4.3% over the current price of $28.17 to surpass the average breakeven point at $29.38. Hartford’s shares are up roughly 80% off a 52-week low of $15.56 set back in August of 2012.

NUAN - Nuance Communications, Inc. – Investors in speech recognition software maker, Nuance Communications, Inc., are taking it on the chin today as shares in the name tumble on the lower than expected second-quarter earnings and revenue reported by the company ahead of the opening bell. Shares in NUAN dropped as much as 19% to a one-month low of $18.86 this morning. Double-digit percentage declines in the price of the underlying appears to have spurred some contrarian trading in Nuance options. Strategists positioning for shares in the audio software provider to rebound during the next couple of months snapped up around 1,700 calls at the Jun $20 strike for an average premium of $0.90 each in the early going today. The bullish bet may pay off at June expiration if shares in Nuance manage to rally 11% off the $18.86 low to surpass the average breakeven point at…
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Is Stability In Japanese Bonds Signalling Gold’s Next Leg Higher?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While intraday ranges on Japanese government bonds (JGB) remain relatively high to the last ten years average volatility, the market has begun to deal better with the unprecedented flows from the BoJ day after day. This in turn has compressed the hedges in JGBs (implied volatility has fallen). This has occurred for two reasons: first, Japanese banks (after front-running the BoJ to all-time record low yields) have likely reduced duration (and thus the need for more protection); and second, the initial fear fear has worn off (as we see again and again in volatility flares) and with it the need for preemptive collateral satisfying asset liquidations.

As we noted here, there is a very explicit link between the volatility (or risk) associated with one of the world’s lowest yield and supposedly risk-free sovereign bond complexes and the need for liquidity (or cash over gold or commodities). The last two weeks has seen JGB bond vol drop and gold rally as the correlation (which appears to have strong causal links) continues; and suggests notably more upside for Gold (especially as CoT data shows net longs remain extremely low).

In short: screaming JGB vol (among other things) pushed gold much lower. How much higher will it pull it back now as the mean reversion reasserts itself?

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg





Moving Averages: Month-End Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Valid until the market close on May 31, 2013

The S&P 500 closed April with a monthly gain of 1.81%. All three S&P 500 MAs and four of the five the Ivy Portfolio ETF MAs are signaling “Invested”.

The Ivy Portfolio

The table below shows the current 10-month simple moving average (SMA) signal for each of the five ETFs featured in The Ivy Portfolio. I’ve also included a table of 12-month SMAs for the same ETFs for this popular alternative strategy, only one of which (DBC) is showing a sell signal.


Backtesting Moving Averages

Monthly Close Signals Over the past few years I’ve used Excel to track the performance of various moving-average timing strategies. But now I use the backtesting tools available on the ETFReplay.com website. Anyone who is interested in market timing with ETFs should have a look at this website. Here are the two tools I most frequently use:

Background on Moving Averages

Buying and selling based on a moving average of monthly closes can be an effective strategy for managing the risk of severe loss from major bear markets. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold the index. When the index closes below, you move to cash. The disadvantage is that it never gets you out at the top or back in at the bottom. Also, it can produce the occasional whipsaw (short-term buy or sell signal), such as we’ve occasionally experienced over the past year.

Nevertheless, a chart of the S&P 500 monthly closes since 1995 shows that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average (SMA) strategy would have insured participation in most of the upside price movement while dramatically reducing losses.

The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) is a slight variant on the simple moving average. This version mathematically increases the weighting of newer data in the 10-month sequence. Since 1995 it has produced fewer whipsaws than the equivalent simple moving average, although it was a month slower to signal a sell after these two market tops.

A look back at the 10- and 12-month moving averages in the Dow during the…
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CME Chairman On Gold: “People Don’t Want Gold Certificates, They Want the Real Product”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty BlitzKrieg

What’s interesting about gold, when we had that big break two weeks ago we saw all the gold stocks trade down significantly, we saw all the gold products trade down significantly, but one thing that did not trade down, was gold coins, tangible real  gold.  That’s going to show you, people don’t want certificates, they don’t want anything else.  They want the real product .

Terrence Duffy, President and Executive Chairman of CME Group Inc,. on Bloomberg TV

I’m actually still in a state of shock that the head of the CME Group would make such an observation and in such blunt terms.  I mean the guy admits that volume on his exchanges suck, yet basically claims paper gold (one of their marquee products) is becoming irrelevant.  In my mind there are two likely explanations for this.  1) This is how he has started to feel personally and he is loading up on physical gold rather than his company’s paper products and would like some cover if that is ever unearthed. 2) This is what people close to the gold market are telling him and he’d rather make it clear he understands that paper is paper and gold is gold and that there is a big difference.  So “caveat emptor” if you are hanging around the COMEX.

His comments on gold come in at the 0:40 mark.  Simply stunning.





Daily Market Commentary: Significant Accumulation

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Technology spent another day in the headlines.  Yesterday there was a breakout in the Nasdaq, now today there was heavier volume buying to back it up. The semiconductor index is the ‘news’ index to follow.  It’s breakout will largely determine how long the rallies in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Technicals are net bullish, another tick in the bullish column for these indices. Even the ‘Death Cross’ might not last too long.


The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq pushed away from support, building on its breakout. Technicals are also net bullish across both indices.

However, the S&P and Russell 2000 haven’t yet followed the lead of the Tech indices, although the S&P may have hinted at a breakout.

It looks like there is still more to come for this rally. Will the S&P make its break Wednesday?

Follow Me on Twitter

Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

JOIN ZIGNALS TODAY – IT’S FREE!





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

WeWork Board, Softbank Officials Push For CEO Neumann's Ouster

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

The odds of WeWork co-founder and CEO Adam Neumann becoming "the world's first trillionaire"  maybe about to take another major hit.

In what appears to be the latest attempt to salvage the farce that is the WeWork IPO (and the massive hole it will leave in Masayoshi Son's balance sheet and credibility), ...



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Insider Scoop

Notable Insider Buys In The Past Week: AbbVie, Kraft Heinz And More

Courtesy of Benzinga

Insider buying can be an encouraging signal for potential investors.

A packaged food giant and two drugmakers saw notable insider buying activity this past week.

Some of this insider buying occurred alongside insider sales.

Conventional wisdom says that insiders and 10% owners really only buy shares of a company for one reason — they believe the stock price will rise and they want to profit. So insider...



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Phil's Favorites

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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