Archive for 2013

Swing trading portfolio – week of March, 11th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) strengthened again over the last week. The daily indicator spent most of its time above zero printing moderately bullish numbers. This is encouraging considering the fact that the market is pushing up into old highs and an obvious resistance level. Many traders are tweeting about shorting the old highs between 1565 and 1576 on SPX, but their tweets are being outnumbered by others suggesting that the market will continue to rally. The intensity of the bears is starting to wane and is showing up in lower volume readings for bearish tweets.

Smoothed sentiment crossed above its recent down trend line this week and has remained above zero. This completely clears the warning condition given on January 29th. Since the lows in late February, smoothed sentiment has confirmed the rally by moving almost straight up during the first few days, then leveling off slightly as the SPX nears all time highs. This slight weakness comes from bears shorting and some bulls tweeting that the market may need some time consolidating before breaking out.

Twitter support and resistance levels widened this week with the bulls starting to call for 1600 on SPX and a few bears tweeting about a trip back to 1500. Above the market most of the calls are for 1576 and 1600 making them resistance. Support is solidly at 1550 and 1500. It is interesting to note that we?re not seeing calls for 1525 to 1530 which was an old resistance level that caused the intensity of tweets to spike. If the market starts to trade lower we?ll be watching for renewed calls at that level to soften the selloff.

With 1565 to 1576 on SPX an obvious resistance level and many traders tweeting about shorting it we suspect the market is due for a pause. However, many market participants are clearly expecting SPX to follow the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on to new all time highs so the pause could be shallow and short lived. We?d like to see smoothed sentiment stay above zero on any market pull back to confirm a shallow dip. A substantial break below the zero line could warn of…
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Second New York City Drone Sighted

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A week after the first unidentified flying drone (UFD) sighting in New York, which even got the FBI scrambling to cover the tracks of the despotic democratic government and going so far as to solicit public input on what was, supposedly, a misplaced remote-controlled airplane, here comes drone 2:





ReGaRDiNG FuKuSHiMa…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

If you were on Zero Hedge on March 11, 2011, you will remember how much I was moved by the whole Fukushima tragedy and how I became very angry at the Japanese establishment within hours following the initial natural events.

I did not repost these images last year, but now on the second anniversary of the disaster, I would like to share these images in their entirety once again in chronological order.

There is a story that unfolds and for the citizens of Tohoku the story is far from over.

To all those lost souls and those who are still suffering, you have my deepest empathy.

WB7

 

 

Soundtrack:

.

Regarding Fukushima, as posted on Zero Hedge by WilliamBanzai7…

 

.

REGARDING FUKUSHIMA
.

Link To Set: Here





Guest Post: Why Things Never Change

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Doug Ross of Director Blue blog,

Historical chart illustrates the biggest problem in America today: Congressional Recidivism

Many fine writers have observed that there exists a de facto Ruling Class in Washington. Once men and women get to Congress, no matter how inept, inane, or diabolical they prove to be, the power of incumbency makes dislodging them akin to prying a Reese’s Cup from Michael Moore’s pudgy fingers.

An exhaustive study — “Reelection Rates of Incumbents in the U.S. House” (PDF) — performed in 2006 illustrates the dramatic changes in reelection rates since America’s founding. It aggregates the results of every House election cycle between the years 1790 and 2006.

Over the years, the reelection rate of incumbents has increased steadily, likely the results of pork, quid pro quo funding to campaign contributors, and legislative skulduggery (the McCain-Feingold bill, for instance, could have been called The Incumbent Protection Act):

Until the Woodrow Wilson era, incumbent reelection rates hovered between 70 and 80 percent. Since then, however, massive wealth redistribution programs at the federal level — the New Deal, the Square Deal, the Fair Deal, Great Society, etc. — began cementing incumbents in place. Constituents dependent upon federal largesse became permanently addicted to these programs and the incumbents who fueled them.

Had the various branches of government shown fidelity to the Constitution, none of these programs would have come to be.

Term limits are one option to resisting incessant federal power grabs, but so too would be leveling the playing field for challengers.

Only a return to Constitutional government will solve the Congressional Recidivism problem.





Intrade Out – Online Betting Service Shuts Down

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just a few short months from the CFTC’s initial ‘enquiries’ into Intrade (and the election HFT malarkey), the online ‘prediction’ site appears to done.

To Our Customers:

With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading activity on www.intrade.com.

 

These circumstances require immediate further investigation, and may include financial irregularities which in accordance with Irish law oblige the directors to take the following actions:

  • Cease exchange trading on the website immediately.
  • Settle all open positions and calculate the settled account value of all Member accounts immediately.
  • Cease all banking transactions for all existing Company accounts immediately.

During the upcoming weeks, we will investigate these circumstances further and determine the necessary course of action.

 

To mitigate any further risk to members’ accounts, we have closed and settled all open contracts at fair market value as of the close of business on March 10, 2013, in accordance with the Terms and Conditions of our customers’ use of the website. You may view your account details and settled account balances by logging into the website.

 

At this time and until further notice, it is not possible to make any payments to members in accordance with their settled account balance until the investigations have concluded.

 

The Company will continue the maintenance and technology operations of the exchange system so that all information is preserved properly.

 

We are not able to provide telephone support or live help services at this time, please contact the company by email at: accountservices@intrade.com

 

We appreciate your custom and support over the years. We are committed to reporting faithfully the status of things as they are clarified and hope you will bear with us as we do all we can to resume operations as promptly as possible.

Sincerely,

The Board of Directors of Intrade the Prediction Market Limited

 

(h/t Wealth.net)





China: Beyond The Miracle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

by Larry Kantor, Head of Research, Barclays,

China has become a key locomotive for global growth, in many ways taking over the role traditionally played by the United States in business cycles. It is now the world’s second largest economy, and has grown much faster than any other major economy over the past couple of decades. China’s role as a key driver of global growth brings with it increased scrutiny by investors and economists: a significant slowdown in China – never mind a collapse – would have significant implications for economies and financial markets around the world. This was most recently seen in 2012, when slower economic growth – fostered in large part by policy tightening to alleviate inflation pressures and structural imbalances – generated fears of a “hard landing” that served as a headwind to financial market performance for much of last year.

The extremely rapid growth in China – as welcome as it has been during an otherwise disappointing recovery from the Great Recession – represents the first stage of development in the evolution of the economy from closed to open, from fully controlled to market, and from agrarian to industrial. This initial stage is already giving way to a new phase of slower, more sustainable growth, with different drivers. It is critical for the global economy and financial markets that China’s transition is managed in a way that allows the necessary adjustments to happen gradually and without de-stabilizing effects.

The Beyond the Miracle series – written by Barclays Yiping Huang, Jian Chang and Steven Lingxiu Yang and launched in September 2011 – carefully analyzes the transition that China is undergoing from various perspectives, and also discusses the economic and financial market implications. It argues that China will successfully make the transition from ‘economic miracle’ to normal development in the next decade (Chapter 1). But there is an important caveat: China must embark on a multi-pronged set of reforms if the country is to move to a slower, more sustainable growth rate that deemphasizes trade, construction and investment and instead places a greater weight on consumer spending as a source of growth.

Each chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the task at hand – from financial reform (Chapter 2), to housing reform (Chapter 3), to the pivotal role of consumption in rebalancing
continue reading





Peter ‘Dollar Demise’ Schiff Versus John ‘Dollar Reprise’ Mauldin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Based on the coming 'oil revolution', John Mauldin makes the point that the US can run $300-400 billion deficits and the Fed "can print trillions" and the dollar will surge (since the rest of the world demands it). Peter Schiff begins quietly adding that "we don't have that much oil" then goes on to discuss the 'ifs' in Mauldin's thesis, beginning the wildcard that "we can't suppress interest rates indefinitely" as we await this supposed oil export boom to begin – and that somehow the US is expected to generate a budget surplus when even the perpetually optimistic CBO in its most recent forecast gave up on expecting a surplus in the future of America. Ever.

The ensuing 3 minutes or so is worth the price of admission as Dollar bull meets Dollar bear in a nose-dripping, face-ripping trip into the future.

 





Sign of ”THE” Bond Top Taking Shape?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The death of the bond bull has been discussed many times for the past few years. The 10-year note is up against a 10-year resistance line and may be forming a topping pattern over the past 15 months.

Key to this pattern is how much selling pressure takes place around the neckline at (1). This asset has seen record inflows for years, so watch this pattern to see if the worm is turning!

 

 

Is this “THE” top in bond prices? Price action at the neckline will give us some clues about this important question!

The results of the pattern will have ripple effects for a big chunk of many of portfolio allocations.

Trouble in Muni Bond Land?

Muni Bond ETF (MUB) is breaking its second support line and its 200-SMA line at (1) this past week. Is it doing something other bonds are not?

Diversified Bond ETF (AGG) is close to breaking support of a multi-year rising channel in the lower right chart.

 

 

Do bond price breakdowns reflect good signs of economic growth? Stay tuned!


For information about Kimble Charting Solutions, send an email to services@kimblechartingsolutions.com.

 

 

 

 





Stock World Weekly

NEW: Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest Stock World Weekly is here (click on link)!





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>