Archive for 2013

Swing trading portfolio – week of March, 11th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) strengthened again over the last week. The daily indicator spent most of its time above zero printing moderately bullish numbers. This is encouraging considering the fact that the market is pushing up into old highs and an obvious resistance level. Many traders are tweeting about shorting the old highs between 1565 and 1576 on SPX, but their tweets are being outnumbered by others suggesting that the market will continue to rally. The intensity of the bears is starting to wane and is showing up in lower volume readings for bearish tweets.

Smoothed sentiment crossed above its recent down trend line this week and has remained above zero. This completely clears the warning condition given on January 29th. Since the lows in late February, smoothed sentiment has confirmed the rally by moving almost straight up during the first few days, then leveling off slightly as the SPX nears all time highs. This slight weakness comes from bears shorting and some bulls tweeting that the market may need some time consolidating before breaking out.

Twitter support and resistance levels widened this week with the bulls starting to call for 1600 on SPX and a few bears tweeting about a trip back to 1500. Above the market most of the calls are for 1576 and 1600 making them resistance. Support is solidly at 1550 and 1500. It is interesting to note that we?re not seeing calls for 1525 to 1530 which was an old resistance level that caused the intensity of tweets to spike. If the market starts to trade lower we?ll be watching for renewed calls at that level to soften the selloff.

With 1565 to 1576 on SPX an obvious resistance level and many traders tweeting about shorting it we suspect the market is due for a pause. However, many market participants are clearly expecting SPX to follow the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on to new all time highs so the pause could be shallow and short lived. We?d like to see smoothed sentiment stay above zero on any market pull back to confirm a shallow dip. A substantial break below the zero line could warn of…
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Second New York City Drone Sighted

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A week after the first unidentified flying drone (UFD) sighting in New York, which even got the FBI scrambling to cover the tracks of the despotic democratic government and going so far as to solicit public input on what was, supposedly, a misplaced remote-controlled airplane, here comes drone 2:





ReGaRDiNG FuKuSHiMa…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

If you were on Zero Hedge on March 11, 2011, you will remember how much I was moved by the whole Fukushima tragedy and how I became very angry at the Japanese establishment within hours following the initial natural events.

I did not repost these images last year, but now on the second anniversary of the disaster, I would like to share these images in their entirety once again in chronological order.

There is a story that unfolds and for the citizens of Tohoku the story is far from over.

To all those lost souls and those who are still suffering, you have my deepest empathy.

WB7

 

 

Soundtrack:

.

Regarding Fukushima, as posted on Zero Hedge by WilliamBanzai7…

 

.

REGARDING FUKUSHIMA
.

Link To Set: Here





Guest Post: Why Things Never Change

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Doug Ross of Director Blue blog,

Historical chart illustrates the biggest problem in America today: Congressional Recidivism

Many fine writers have observed that there exists a de facto Ruling Class in Washington. Once men and women get to Congress, no matter how inept, inane, or diabolical they prove to be, the power of incumbency makes dislodging them akin to prying a Reese’s Cup from Michael Moore’s pudgy fingers.

An exhaustive study — “Reelection Rates of Incumbents in the U.S. House” (PDF) — performed in 2006 illustrates the dramatic changes in reelection rates since America’s founding. It aggregates the results of every House election cycle between the years 1790 and 2006.

Over the years, the reelection rate of incumbents has increased steadily, likely the results of pork, quid pro quo funding to campaign contributors, and legislative skulduggery (the McCain-Feingold bill, for instance, could have been called The Incumbent Protection Act):

Until the Woodrow Wilson era, incumbent reelection rates hovered between 70 and 80 percent. Since then, however, massive wealth redistribution programs at the federal level — the New Deal, the Square Deal, the Fair Deal, Great Society, etc. — began cementing incumbents in place. Constituents dependent upon federal largesse became permanently addicted to these programs and the incumbents who fueled them.

Had the various branches of government shown fidelity to the Constitution, none of these programs would have come to be.

Term limits are one option to resisting incessant federal power grabs, but so too would be leveling the playing field for challengers.

Only a return to Constitutional government will solve the Congressional Recidivism problem.





Intrade Out – Online Betting Service Shuts Down

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just a few short months from the CFTC’s initial ‘enquiries’ into Intrade (and the election HFT malarkey), the online ‘prediction’ site appears to done.

To Our Customers:

With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading activity on www.intrade.com.

 

These circumstances require immediate further investigation, and may include financial irregularities which in accordance with Irish law oblige the directors to take the following actions:

  • Cease exchange trading on the website immediately.
  • Settle all open positions and calculate the settled account value of all Member accounts immediately.
  • Cease all banking transactions for all existing Company accounts immediately.

During the upcoming weeks, we will investigate these circumstances further and determine the necessary course of action.

 

To mitigate any further risk to members’ accounts, we have closed and settled all open contracts at fair market value as of the close of business on March 10, 2013, in accordance with the Terms and Conditions of our customers’ use of the website. You may view your account details and settled account balances by logging into the website.

 

At this time and until further notice, it is not possible to make any payments to members in accordance with their settled account balance until the investigations have concluded.

 

The Company will continue the maintenance and technology operations of the exchange system so that all information is preserved properly.

 

We are not able to provide telephone support or live help services at this time, please contact the company by email at: accountservices@intrade.com

 

We appreciate your custom and support over the years. We are committed to reporting faithfully the status of things as they are clarified and hope you will bear with us as we do all we can to resume operations as promptly as possible.

Sincerely,

The Board of Directors of Intrade the Prediction Market Limited

 

(h/t Wealth.net)





China: Beyond The Miracle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

by Larry Kantor, Head of Research, Barclays,

China has become a key locomotive for global growth, in many ways taking over the role traditionally played by the United States in business cycles. It is now the world’s second largest economy, and has grown much faster than any other major economy over the past couple of decades. China’s role as a key driver of global growth brings with it increased scrutiny by investors and economists: a significant slowdown in China – never mind a collapse – would have significant implications for economies and financial markets around the world. This was most recently seen in 2012, when slower economic growth – fostered in large part by policy tightening to alleviate inflation pressures and structural imbalances – generated fears of a “hard landing” that served as a headwind to financial market performance for much of last year.

The extremely rapid growth in China – as welcome as it has been during an otherwise disappointing recovery from the Great Recession – represents the first stage of development in the evolution of the economy from closed to open, from fully controlled to market, and from agrarian to industrial. This initial stage is already giving way to a new phase of slower, more sustainable growth, with different drivers. It is critical for the global economy and financial markets that China’s transition is managed in a way that allows the necessary adjustments to happen gradually and without de-stabilizing effects.

The Beyond the Miracle series – written by Barclays Yiping Huang, Jian Chang and Steven Lingxiu Yang and launched in September 2011 – carefully analyzes the transition that China is undergoing from various perspectives, and also discusses the economic and financial market implications. It argues that China will successfully make the transition from ‘economic miracle’ to normal development in the next decade (Chapter 1). But there is an important caveat: China must embark on a multi-pronged set of reforms if the country is to move to a slower, more sustainable growth rate that deemphasizes trade, construction and investment and instead places a greater weight on consumer spending as a source of growth.

Each chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the task at hand – from financial reform (Chapter 2), to housing reform (Chapter 3), to the pivotal role of consumption in rebalancing
continue reading





Peter ‘Dollar Demise’ Schiff Versus John ‘Dollar Reprise’ Mauldin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Based on the coming 'oil revolution', John Mauldin makes the point that the US can run $300-400 billion deficits and the Fed "can print trillions" and the dollar will surge (since the rest of the world demands it). Peter Schiff begins quietly adding that "we don't have that much oil" then goes on to discuss the 'ifs' in Mauldin's thesis, beginning the wildcard that "we can't suppress interest rates indefinitely" as we await this supposed oil export boom to begin – and that somehow the US is expected to generate a budget surplus when even the perpetually optimistic CBO in its most recent forecast gave up on expecting a surplus in the future of America. Ever.

The ensuing 3 minutes or so is worth the price of admission as Dollar bull meets Dollar bear in a nose-dripping, face-ripping trip into the future.

 





Sign of ”THE” Bond Top Taking Shape?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The death of the bond bull has been discussed many times for the past few years. The 10-year note is up against a 10-year resistance line and may be forming a topping pattern over the past 15 months.

Key to this pattern is how much selling pressure takes place around the neckline at (1). This asset has seen record inflows for years, so watch this pattern to see if the worm is turning!

 

 

Is this “THE” top in bond prices? Price action at the neckline will give us some clues about this important question!

The results of the pattern will have ripple effects for a big chunk of many of portfolio allocations.

Trouble in Muni Bond Land?

Muni Bond ETF (MUB) is breaking its second support line and its 200-SMA line at (1) this past week. Is it doing something other bonds are not?

Diversified Bond ETF (AGG) is close to breaking support of a multi-year rising channel in the lower right chart.

 

 

Do bond price breakdowns reflect good signs of economic growth? Stay tuned!


For information about Kimble Charting Solutions, send an email to services@kimblechartingsolutions.com.

 

 

 

 





Stock World Weekly

NEW: Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest Stock World Weekly is here (click on link)!





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Visualizing How Much Oil Is In An Electric Vehicle?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When most people think about oil and natural gas, the first thing that comes to mind is the gas in the tank of their car. But, as Visual Capitalist's Nicholas LePan notes, there is actually much more to oil’s role, than meets the eye...

Oil, along with natural gas, has hundreds of different uses in a modern vehicle through petrochemicals.

Today’s infographic comes to us from American Fuel & Petrochemicals Manufacturers, and covers why oil is a critical mate...



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Phil's Favorites

Assange's new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

Assange’s new indictment: Espionage and the First Amendment

Courtesy of Ofer Raban, University of Oregon

Julian Assange, the co-founder of WikiLeaks, has been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with a slew of Espionage Act violations that could keep him in prison for the rest of his life.

The new indictment expands an earlier one charging Assange with conspiring w...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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