Archive for 2013

Guest Post: Gold-Silver Ratio In Phase Space

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by The World Complex

Gold-Silver Ratio In Phase Space

The reconstructed phase space portrait is one tool that can be used to gain insight into the dynamics of complex systems, whether these systems be natural or man-made.

Today we will use these tools to look at precious metals.

 

The near-constant slope over long stretches of this plot tells us that gold is already increasing in price exponentially. So don’t say that gold price will increase exponentially during a financial crisis. It is already doing so, and has been since early 2001 (notwithstanding the recent turmoil).

The break in slope in late 2005 tells us that the gold price suddenly began to increase more rapidly. I don’t know if anything unusual happened in late 2005, but there was a bland warning by the ECB issued in December 2005 about growing global financial imbalances.

Reconstructing phase space portraits normally requires two or more time series, sampled at equivalent intervals. You can simply plot one series against the other (a scatter plot). If you are using excel or a similar program, this is remarkably easy.

Looks impressive--the gold line represents a gold:silver ratio of about 60. Deviations from that line represent deviations in this ratio. Silver’s rise to nearly $50 in 2011 causes the funny looking nose on the graph at upper right. The curve represents the time evolution of the system, which moved in herky-jerky fashion from the lower left (in January 2000) towards the upper right of the graph (a little while ago). Each plotted point represents the state at the end of each month until roughly the present.

For graphs covering at least an order of magnitude, it may be worth using logarithmic axes.

The problem with these graphs is the presence of the US dollar. Most of the action in the plot is due to the declining value of the US dollar. To remove it, let us consider only the gold:silver ratio itself.

There are a number of long-accepted methods for projecting a single data series into a state space of…
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Chief Advisor To US Treasury Becomes JPMorgan’s Second Most Important Man

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Recall from “The Supercommittee That Really Runs America“:

With Tim Geithner having proven repeatedly and beyond a reasonable doubt he has insurmountable intellectual challenges, many have wondered just who it is that makes the real decisions at the US Treasury? The answer is, The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, or the TBAC in short, chaired by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which meets every quarter, and in which the richest people in America set the fate of the US for the next 3 months….

Recall further: the TBAC’s composition:

Naturally, recall that 40% of US spending is debt-funded. In other words, the US Treasury will gladly take all “advice” on borrowing it can get. And the key person providing said advice would have a very high position in the hierarchy of the US Wall Street-controlled muppet state.

Next, recall how Mr. Zames recently rose to prominence at another venue: JPMorgan itself. He took over for former CIO head Ina Drew in the aftermath of the biggest government backstopped prop-trading desk implosion in history. That’s ok though, Matt was well-versed in spectacular blow ups. After all he worked at LTCM previously.

As reported yesterday, here it is officially:

  •     JPMORGAN SAYS INA DREW TO RETIRE; MATT ZAMES NAMED NEW CIO
  •     JPMORGAN SAYS DANIEL TO STAY CEO OF EUROPE/MIDEAST/AFRICA
  •     JPMORGAN SAYS CAVANAGH TO LEAD TEAM OVERSEEING RESPONSE TO LOSS
  •     JPMORGAN CHASE SAYS ZAMES NAMED NEW CIO

Good bye Ina: we are sure that you will voluntarily claw back your $15 million bonus from 2011 one day ahead of the JPM shareholder meeting.

 

Now… Matt Zames… Matt Zames… where have we heard that name before… OH YES: he just happens to be the Chairman of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, aka the TBAC, aka the Superommittee that Really Runs America. The Matt Zames who… “previously worked at hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP, may have benefited as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns Cos. left companies and hedge funds with fewer trading partners in the private derivatives markets.”

Finally, recall from one of our FleeceBook entries, that Mr. Zames, who subsequently was…
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Chief Advisor To US Treasury Set To Become JPMorgan’s Second Most Important Man

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Recall from “The Supercommittee That Really Runs America“:

With Tim Geithner having proven repeatedly and beyond a reasonable doubt he has insurmountable intellectual challenges, many have wondered just who it is that makes the real decisions at the US Treasury? The answer is, The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, or the TBAC in short, chaired by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which meets every quarter, and in which the richest people in America set the fate of the US for the next 3 months….

Recall further: the TBAC’s composition:

Naturally, recall that 40% of US spending is debt-funded. In other words, the US Treasury will gladly take all “advice” on borrowing it can get. And the key person providing said advice would have a very high position in the hierarchy of the US Wall Street-controlled muppet state.

Next, recall how Mr. Zames recently rose to prominence at another venue: JPMorgan itself. He took over for former CIO head Ina Drew in the aftermath of the biggest government backstopped prop-trading desk implosion in history. That’s ok though, Matt was well-versed in spectacular blow ups. After all he worked at LTCM previously.

As reported yesterday, here it is officially:

  •     JPMORGAN SAYS INA DREW TO RETIRE; MATT ZAMES NAMED NEW CIO
  •     JPMORGAN SAYS DANIEL TO STAY CEO OF EUROPE/MIDEAST/AFRICA
  •     JPMORGAN SAYS CAVANAGH TO LEAD TEAM OVERSEEING RESPONSE TO LOSS
  •     JPMORGAN CHASE SAYS ZAMES NAMED NEW CIO

Good bye Ina: we are sure that you will voluntarily claw back your $15 million bonus from 2011 one day ahead of the JPM shareholder meeting.

 

Now… Matt Zames… Matt Zames… where have we heard that name before… OH YES: he just happens to be the Chairman of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, aka the TBAC, aka the Superommittee that Really Runs America. The Matt Zames who… “previously worked at hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP, may have benefited as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns Cos. left companies and hedge funds with fewer trading partners in the private derivatives markets.”

Finally, recall from one of our FleeceBook entries, that Mr. Zames, who subsequently was…
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The Greatest Weapon Against The Tyranny Of “Very Serious People” – Laughter

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From the last edition of Bill Buckler’s “The Privateer”

On A More Personal Note

So, here we are on the last page of the last issue of The Privateer. My wife Cathy and I have had mixed feelings about getting to this point. On the one hand, it couldn’t come fast enough. On the other, there were times when we didn’t want it to come at all. But there are many ways to skin a cat and the particular one we have chosen over the last three decades has outlived its usefulness. It was and is time for a change.

It is easy to get downhearted about the bullheaded stupidity of those who rule our world. It is just as easy to get morose when confronted with the fact that most of those around us seem to have bought the line that any genuine change for the better is politically (or financially, take your pick) impossible. Our particular antidote has always been laughter – which really is the best medicine. We have had countless “rolling on the floor” exercises over the years when contemplating the sheer idiocy of it all. No matter what the state of the world may be, each of us gets to pick those aspects of it which we deem genuinely IMPORTANT. The rest are not worthy of our serious consideration – but they ARE worthy of our derision.

Never forget, the “achilles heel” of anyone who’s driving aim in life is to CONTROL the lives of other people is his or her aching need to be taken “seriously”. No tyrant on any level can handle derision, it deflates them utterly by reducing their stature to its proper level in a way which they cannot escape. Imagine if they held an election and everybody laughed – and then went on about their IMPORTANT business.

In essence, the people who matter in the world are fully confident that they have earned the status of adult human beings and get exasperated with those who insist on treating them as children. There are times when this tiresome tendency can grate very sharply. But most of the time, it really is screamingly funny and really should be treated as such. As Soviet dissenter Vladimir Bukovsky pointed out in his wonderful autobiography - To Build
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As It Gets Its Latest European Lifeline, Life In Greece Is About To Get Even Harder

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A few hours ago, Greek lawmakers approved a reform law to unlock about €8.8 billion of rescue loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The law, which was a condition for further aid installments, passed easily with the solid backing of the three parties comprising Greece’s ruling coalition, by 168 to 123 votes. Next, euro zone officials will meet on Monday to approve overdue payment of 2.8 billion euros ($3.65 billion) in rescue loans, finance minister Yannis Stournaras said. Euro zone finmins will then meet on May 13 to release a further 6 billion euro installment, he added. The use of proceeds? To have enough cash to pay salaries and pensions, and of course to pay Mario Draghi for a bond that matures on May 20. The fact that Europe has gotten the green sign to hand over some pocket change to Greece, so Greece can pay for the maturity on Greek bonds by the ECB was the good news (for someone, unclear exactly who). The bad news, for Greece, starts now.

As BBC reports, some 15,000 state workers will lose their jobs by the end of next year. Naturally, in light of the recent epic backlash against austerity (or fauxterity as penned previously) whose corpse has already promptly been trampled in Spain, and now in Italy, Greece would like to get back on the gravy train as well. Yet they are being denied, and the result is indignation at what the people rightfully see as B-class European citizen treatment.

As MPs debated the measures inside parliament, several hundred demonstrators outside took part in a protest called by Adedy, the civil service trade confederation, and the private sector GSEE union.

 

They were demonstrating against what the unions called “those politicians who are dismantling the public service and destroying the welfare state”.

 

Critics say the law, which is part of a larger package of measures, will only add to Greece’s record unemployment rate of 27%.

 

They say many of those who will lose their jobs are older workers already struggling to support their families and make ends meet.

It’s only downhill from there too. As Kathimerini adds the tax burden for all Greeks is about to…
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Here’s Why Everybody Is Wrong About The Second Quarter Being Weak

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

With the quarter now one third complete just about all the pundits are predicting a sharp slowdown in the economy for the April-June period. Today Jamie McKeever of Rheuters reported that Barclays and Morgan Stanley expect GDP growth of just 1% to 1.5% for the quarter.

The all knowing punditocracy will need a total collapse in May and June in order to be correct, based on first time unemployment claims and real time Federal Withholding Tax data. That, ladies and gentlemen, is simply not on the radar, at least not in the available real-time data. At this moment the economy is melting up, not down.

The following excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Update illustrates why the pundits are probably wrong (… again… as usual… What else is new?)

The 4 week average of the 11 weekdays (half month) total of withholding taxes was up 12.6% in nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago [as of April 23]. That’s an increase from +12.1% last week. The tax rate change at the beginning of the year appeared to result in a 6.5% increase in withholding tax collections. (Withholding taxes in Q1 accurately foreshadowed GDP growth for that quarter). That suggests that the net gain not attributable to tax rate changes is around 6.1% year over year. Part of that is inflation and part is an increase in economic activity

Changes in average weekly compensation fluctuate wildly, so getting a handle on the real rate of gain becomes little more than swag as the month goes on until the next BLS employment data release. The  BLS figures for March showed a year to year increase of 1.9%.  Average weekly compensation gains each month, while volatile, have been averaging near a 2% annual rate. That would mean that real gains for the past 4 weeks were near 4.1%. I’m skeptical about this number. It probably includes other, non employment related forms of withholding which are withheld quarterly. They are usually minor but can skew the numbers from time to time. The effects of the tax rate increase and inflation may also be greater than estimated here.

Still, there’s no clear evidence of economic weakening in this data. The uptrend has been remarkably stable dating back to May 2012. The second quarter is off to a


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Weekly Market Commentary: Breadth Swing Low

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

While it’s questionable the extent the breadth swing low will support for a rally in the parent Nasdaq (given none of the breadth indicators are oversold), it does suggest the current rally is something more than just a relief rally.


The problem with the swing low is that a return to overbought conditions will occur within a few weeks, and won’t support a lengthy rally typical of major breadth swing lows.

The New Highs / Lows metric points to a scrappy period, with a swing high in place, but a period of sideways action favoured to follow.  However, this will only be a prelude to larger correction to follow, although it offers an opportunity to get out before the worst of the selling hits.

The Nasdaq is hanging on to its weekly breakout. As long as it hold above 3,200 the rally will be maintained., with rising trend support around 3,000 the last chance saloon for bulls trading this trend.

The Russell 2000 is carrying the breakout and is doing its best to hold above 900.  Even if it has got scrappy on the daily timeframe, the weekly is relatively stable.

The summation is the rally has room to run, but it will take a big week of selling to break the weekly bullish picture.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still on a consolidation warning. The previous warnings from this indicator have all resulted with SPX trading below the level of the warning even if sentiment diverged from price for several weeks. Of course, three instances don’t make a valid sample set, but it shows potential.

Sentiment on a daily basis continues to show lackluster prints whether the market is up or down. This is happening while the intensity of tweets is falling. Opinions are drying up which suggests that traders are waiting before taking any significant action.

Smoothed sentiment is still showing a negative divergence, but is somewhat mirroring price. It moved back above zero, but won’t clear its consolidation warning until it moves above the declining trend line. When sentiment follows price (instead of leading) it suggests that traders are simply reacting to the moves in the market rather than making trades based on their belief about future outcomes. This is a sign of indecision.

Twitter support and resistance coiled very tightly this week however it has a slight downside bias. There are only a few tweets calling for anything above 1600 on SPX. The 1600 level is being mentioned four times more than any other price point which suggests traders will need to see prices above this level before getting aggressive. Below the market, 1575, 1550, and 1535 are the most tweeted levels signaling that traders believe another trip lower is possible. There are some scattered tweets well below current prices at 1475 and 1500 which shows growing anticipation from a few bears. Overall it appears that traders are simply trading against 1550 and 1600 until they get more clarity.

Twitter sector sentiment flipped quickly this week. Last week every sector had negative sentiment (something we hadn’t seen before). This week leading sectors gained support while defensive sectors lagged. Consumer discretionary stocks which have had strong gains this year are now showing the most negative sentiment. We thought last week’s across the board negative sentiment meant a flight to safety. It now appears that it may simply be profit taking in the highest performing sectors this year. Although sector…
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Political Assassination Prevented In Rome As Unemployed Man Tries To “Shoot Politicians”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While suicides out of desperation had long been a tragic, if recurring, staple in depressionary Europe, so far popular anger had been directed at within, with few if any murderous outbursts targeted at other people, and certainly not at politicians (or financiers). This obviously has been a critical aspect of the current economic collapse in Europe – one needs but recall that it was a political assassination that sparked World War I in Sarajevo, and indirectly, via the Weimar collapse of Germany, set the stage for World War II, leading to the death of tens of millions around the globe. Today we came close. As the AP reports, during today’s swearing in ceremony of Italy’s new pseudo-technocrat yet anti-austerity government which has the blessings of Berlusconi, an “unemployed Italian gunman shot and seriously wounded two policemen Sunday in a square outside the premier’s office in Rome, but he “wanted to shoot politicians,” Rome prosecutor Pierfilippo Laviani said.

 

“Shots rang out in Chigi Square near a busy shopping and strolling area shortly after 11:30 a.m. just as Italy’s new government — Premier Enrico Letta and his new ministers — were taking their oaths at the Quirinal presidential office, about a half-mile away. The suspected gunman, dressed in a dark business suit, was immediately grabbed by other police in the square, wrestled to the ground and taken away. Laviani, who later questioned the alleged assailant, said the man “wanted to shoot politicians, but given that he couldn’t reach any, he shot the Carabinieri” police. Laviani added that the man “confessed everything,” but didn’t appear mentally unbalanced.”

From AP:

The shooting “was the tragic gesture of an unemployed man,” Interior Minister Angelino Alfano also told reporters after briefing Letta and his new Cabinet about the attack.

 

 

Alfano said the alleged gunman — 49-year-old Luigi Preiti — wanted to kill himself after the shooting but ran out of bullets. He said six shots were fired.

 

Italian media reports said the assailant was from southern Calabria and had lived for several years in northern Italy before moving back to Calabria after his marriage fell apart.

 

Sky TG24 TV quoted the man’s brother as saying the alleged attacker had lost his job


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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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