Archive for 2013

Guest Post: Gold-Silver Ratio In Phase Space

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by The World Complex

Gold-Silver Ratio In Phase Space

The reconstructed phase space portrait is one tool that can be used to gain insight into the dynamics of complex systems, whether these systems be natural or man-made.

Today we will use these tools to look at precious metals.

 

The near-constant slope over long stretches of this plot tells us that gold is already increasing in price exponentially. So don’t say that gold price will increase exponentially during a financial crisis. It is already doing so, and has been since early 2001 (notwithstanding the recent turmoil).

The break in slope in late 2005 tells us that the gold price suddenly began to increase more rapidly. I don’t know if anything unusual happened in late 2005, but there was a bland warning by the ECB issued in December 2005 about growing global financial imbalances.

Reconstructing phase space portraits normally requires two or more time series, sampled at equivalent intervals. You can simply plot one series against the other (a scatter plot). If you are using excel or a similar program, this is remarkably easy.

Looks impressive--the gold line represents a gold:silver ratio of about 60. Deviations from that line represent deviations in this ratio. Silver’s rise to nearly $50 in 2011 causes the funny looking nose on the graph at upper right. The curve represents the time evolution of the system, which moved in herky-jerky fashion from the lower left (in January 2000) towards the upper right of the graph (a little while ago). Each plotted point represents the state at the end of each month until roughly the present.

For graphs covering at least an order of magnitude, it may be worth using logarithmic axes.

The problem with these graphs is the presence of the US dollar. Most of the action in the plot is due to the declining value of the US dollar. To remove it, let us consider only the gold:silver ratio itself.

There are a number of long-accepted methods for projecting a single data series into a state space of…
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Chief Advisor To US Treasury Becomes JPMorgan’s Second Most Important Man

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Recall from “The Supercommittee That Really Runs America“:

With Tim Geithner having proven repeatedly and beyond a reasonable doubt he has insurmountable intellectual challenges, many have wondered just who it is that makes the real decisions at the US Treasury? The answer is, The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, or the TBAC in short, chaired by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which meets every quarter, and in which the richest people in America set the fate of the US for the next 3 months….

Recall further: the TBAC’s composition:

Naturally, recall that 40% of US spending is debt-funded. In other words, the US Treasury will gladly take all “advice” on borrowing it can get. And the key person providing said advice would have a very high position in the hierarchy of the US Wall Street-controlled muppet state.

Next, recall how Mr. Zames recently rose to prominence at another venue: JPMorgan itself. He took over for former CIO head Ina Drew in the aftermath of the biggest government backstopped prop-trading desk implosion in history. That’s ok though, Matt was well-versed in spectacular blow ups. After all he worked at LTCM previously.

As reported yesterday, here it is officially:

  •     JPMORGAN SAYS INA DREW TO RETIRE; MATT ZAMES NAMED NEW CIO
  •     JPMORGAN SAYS DANIEL TO STAY CEO OF EUROPE/MIDEAST/AFRICA
  •     JPMORGAN SAYS CAVANAGH TO LEAD TEAM OVERSEEING RESPONSE TO LOSS
  •     JPMORGAN CHASE SAYS ZAMES NAMED NEW CIO

Good bye Ina: we are sure that you will voluntarily claw back your $15 million bonus from 2011 one day ahead of the JPM shareholder meeting.

 

Now… Matt Zames… Matt Zames… where have we heard that name before… OH YES: he just happens to be the Chairman of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, aka the TBAC, aka the Superommittee that Really Runs America. The Matt Zames who… “previously worked at hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP, may have benefited as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns Cos. left companies and hedge funds with fewer trading partners in the private derivatives markets.”

Finally, recall from one of our FleeceBook entries, that Mr. Zames, who subsequently was…
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Chief Advisor To US Treasury Set To Become JPMorgan’s Second Most Important Man

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Recall from “The Supercommittee That Really Runs America“:

With Tim Geithner having proven repeatedly and beyond a reasonable doubt he has insurmountable intellectual challenges, many have wondered just who it is that makes the real decisions at the US Treasury? The answer is, The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, or the TBAC in short, chaired by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which meets every quarter, and in which the richest people in America set the fate of the US for the next 3 months….

Recall further: the TBAC’s composition:

Naturally, recall that 40% of US spending is debt-funded. In other words, the US Treasury will gladly take all “advice” on borrowing it can get. And the key person providing said advice would have a very high position in the hierarchy of the US Wall Street-controlled muppet state.

Next, recall how Mr. Zames recently rose to prominence at another venue: JPMorgan itself. He took over for former CIO head Ina Drew in the aftermath of the biggest government backstopped prop-trading desk implosion in history. That’s ok though, Matt was well-versed in spectacular blow ups. After all he worked at LTCM previously.

As reported yesterday, here it is officially:

  •     JPMORGAN SAYS INA DREW TO RETIRE; MATT ZAMES NAMED NEW CIO
  •     JPMORGAN SAYS DANIEL TO STAY CEO OF EUROPE/MIDEAST/AFRICA
  •     JPMORGAN SAYS CAVANAGH TO LEAD TEAM OVERSEEING RESPONSE TO LOSS
  •     JPMORGAN CHASE SAYS ZAMES NAMED NEW CIO

Good bye Ina: we are sure that you will voluntarily claw back your $15 million bonus from 2011 one day ahead of the JPM shareholder meeting.

 

Now… Matt Zames… Matt Zames… where have we heard that name before… OH YES: he just happens to be the Chairman of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, aka the TBAC, aka the Superommittee that Really Runs America. The Matt Zames who… “previously worked at hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP, may have benefited as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns Cos. left companies and hedge funds with fewer trading partners in the private derivatives markets.”

Finally, recall from one of our FleeceBook entries, that Mr. Zames, who subsequently was…
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The Greatest Weapon Against The Tyranny Of “Very Serious People” – Laughter

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From the last edition of Bill Buckler’s “The Privateer”

On A More Personal Note

So, here we are on the last page of the last issue of The Privateer. My wife Cathy and I have had mixed feelings about getting to this point. On the one hand, it couldn’t come fast enough. On the other, there were times when we didn’t want it to come at all. But there are many ways to skin a cat and the particular one we have chosen over the last three decades has outlived its usefulness. It was and is time for a change.

It is easy to get downhearted about the bullheaded stupidity of those who rule our world. It is just as easy to get morose when confronted with the fact that most of those around us seem to have bought the line that any genuine change for the better is politically (or financially, take your pick) impossible. Our particular antidote has always been laughter – which really is the best medicine. We have had countless “rolling on the floor” exercises over the years when contemplating the sheer idiocy of it all. No matter what the state of the world may be, each of us gets to pick those aspects of it which we deem genuinely IMPORTANT. The rest are not worthy of our serious consideration – but they ARE worthy of our derision.

Never forget, the “achilles heel” of anyone who’s driving aim in life is to CONTROL the lives of other people is his or her aching need to be taken “seriously”. No tyrant on any level can handle derision, it deflates them utterly by reducing their stature to its proper level in a way which they cannot escape. Imagine if they held an election and everybody laughed – and then went on about their IMPORTANT business.

In essence, the people who matter in the world are fully confident that they have earned the status of adult human beings and get exasperated with those who insist on treating them as children. There are times when this tiresome tendency can grate very sharply. But most of the time, it really is screamingly funny and really should be treated as such. As Soviet dissenter Vladimir Bukovsky pointed out in his wonderful autobiography - To Build
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As It Gets Its Latest European Lifeline, Life In Greece Is About To Get Even Harder

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A few hours ago, Greek lawmakers approved a reform law to unlock about €8.8 billion of rescue loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The law, which was a condition for further aid installments, passed easily with the solid backing of the three parties comprising Greece’s ruling coalition, by 168 to 123 votes. Next, euro zone officials will meet on Monday to approve overdue payment of 2.8 billion euros ($3.65 billion) in rescue loans, finance minister Yannis Stournaras said. Euro zone finmins will then meet on May 13 to release a further 6 billion euro installment, he added. The use of proceeds? To have enough cash to pay salaries and pensions, and of course to pay Mario Draghi for a bond that matures on May 20. The fact that Europe has gotten the green sign to hand over some pocket change to Greece, so Greece can pay for the maturity on Greek bonds by the ECB was the good news (for someone, unclear exactly who). The bad news, for Greece, starts now.

As BBC reports, some 15,000 state workers will lose their jobs by the end of next year. Naturally, in light of the recent epic backlash against austerity (or fauxterity as penned previously) whose corpse has already promptly been trampled in Spain, and now in Italy, Greece would like to get back on the gravy train as well. Yet they are being denied, and the result is indignation at what the people rightfully see as B-class European citizen treatment.

As MPs debated the measures inside parliament, several hundred demonstrators outside took part in a protest called by Adedy, the civil service trade confederation, and the private sector GSEE union.

 

They were demonstrating against what the unions called “those politicians who are dismantling the public service and destroying the welfare state”.

 

Critics say the law, which is part of a larger package of measures, will only add to Greece’s record unemployment rate of 27%.

 

They say many of those who will lose their jobs are older workers already struggling to support their families and make ends meet.

It’s only downhill from there too. As Kathimerini adds the tax burden for all Greeks is about to…
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Here’s Why Everybody Is Wrong About The Second Quarter Being Weak

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

With the quarter now one third complete just about all the pundits are predicting a sharp slowdown in the economy for the April-June period. Today Jamie McKeever of Rheuters reported that Barclays and Morgan Stanley expect GDP growth of just 1% to 1.5% for the quarter.

The all knowing punditocracy will need a total collapse in May and June in order to be correct, based on first time unemployment claims and real time Federal Withholding Tax data. That, ladies and gentlemen, is simply not on the radar, at least not in the available real-time data. At this moment the economy is melting up, not down.

The following excerpt from the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Update illustrates why the pundits are probably wrong (… again… as usual… What else is new?)

The 4 week average of the 11 weekdays (half month) total of withholding taxes was up 12.6% in nominal terms versus the corresponding period a year ago [as of April 23]. That’s an increase from +12.1% last week. The tax rate change at the beginning of the year appeared to result in a 6.5% increase in withholding tax collections. (Withholding taxes in Q1 accurately foreshadowed GDP growth for that quarter). That suggests that the net gain not attributable to tax rate changes is around 6.1% year over year. Part of that is inflation and part is an increase in economic activity

Changes in average weekly compensation fluctuate wildly, so getting a handle on the real rate of gain becomes little more than swag as the month goes on until the next BLS employment data release. The  BLS figures for March showed a year to year increase of 1.9%.  Average weekly compensation gains each month, while volatile, have been averaging near a 2% annual rate. That would mean that real gains for the past 4 weeks were near 4.1%. I’m skeptical about this number. It probably includes other, non employment related forms of withholding which are withheld quarterly. They are usually minor but can skew the numbers from time to time. The effects of the tax rate increase and inflation may also be greater than estimated here.

Still, there’s no clear evidence of economic weakening in this data. The uptrend has been remarkably stable dating back to May 2012. The second quarter is off to a


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Stock World Weekly

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Weekly Market Commentary: Breadth Swing Low

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

While it’s questionable the extent the breadth swing low will support for a rally in the parent Nasdaq (given none of the breadth indicators are oversold), it does suggest the current rally is something more than just a relief rally.


The problem with the swing low is that a return to overbought conditions will occur within a few weeks, and won’t support a lengthy rally typical of major breadth swing lows.

The New Highs / Lows metric points to a scrappy period, with a swing high in place, but a period of sideways action favoured to follow.  However, this will only be a prelude to larger correction to follow, although it offers an opportunity to get out before the worst of the selling hits.

The Nasdaq is hanging on to its weekly breakout. As long as it hold above 3,200 the rally will be maintained., with rising trend support around 3,000 the last chance saloon for bulls trading this trend.

The Russell 2000 is carrying the breakout and is doing its best to hold above 900.  Even if it has got scrappy on the daily timeframe, the weekly is relatively stable.

The summation is the rally has room to run, but it will take a big week of selling to break the weekly bullish picture.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still on a consolidation warning. The previous warnings from this indicator have all resulted with SPX trading below the level of the warning even if sentiment diverged from price for several weeks. Of course, three instances don’t make a valid sample set, but it shows potential.

Sentiment on a daily basis continues to show lackluster prints whether the market is up or down. This is happening while the intensity of tweets is falling. Opinions are drying up which suggests that traders are waiting before taking any significant action.

Smoothed sentiment is still showing a negative divergence, but is somewhat mirroring price. It moved back above zero, but won’t clear its consolidation warning until it moves above the declining trend line. When sentiment follows price (instead of leading) it suggests that traders are simply reacting to the moves in the market rather than making trades based on their belief about future outcomes. This is a sign of indecision.

Twitter support and resistance coiled very tightly this week however it has a slight downside bias. There are only a few tweets calling for anything above 1600 on SPX. The 1600 level is being mentioned four times more than any other price point which suggests traders will need to see prices above this level before getting aggressive. Below the market, 1575, 1550, and 1535 are the most tweeted levels signaling that traders believe another trip lower is possible. There are some scattered tweets well below current prices at 1475 and 1500 which shows growing anticipation from a few bears. Overall it appears that traders are simply trading against 1550 and 1600 until they get more clarity.

Twitter sector sentiment flipped quickly this week. Last week every sector had negative sentiment (something we hadn’t seen before). This week leading sectors gained support while defensive sectors lagged. Consumer discretionary stocks which have had strong gains this year are now showing the most negative sentiment. We thought last week’s across the board negative sentiment meant a flight to safety. It now appears that it may simply be profit taking in the highest performing sectors this year. Although sector…
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Political Assassination Prevented In Rome As Unemployed Man Tries To “Shoot Politicians”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While suicides out of desperation had long been a tragic, if recurring, staple in depressionary Europe, so far popular anger had been directed at within, with few if any murderous outbursts targeted at other people, and certainly not at politicians (or financiers). This obviously has been a critical aspect of the current economic collapse in Europe – one needs but recall that it was a political assassination that sparked World War I in Sarajevo, and indirectly, via the Weimar collapse of Germany, set the stage for World War II, leading to the death of tens of millions around the globe. Today we came close. As the AP reports, during today’s swearing in ceremony of Italy’s new pseudo-technocrat yet anti-austerity government which has the blessings of Berlusconi, an “unemployed Italian gunman shot and seriously wounded two policemen Sunday in a square outside the premier’s office in Rome, but he “wanted to shoot politicians,” Rome prosecutor Pierfilippo Laviani said.

 

“Shots rang out in Chigi Square near a busy shopping and strolling area shortly after 11:30 a.m. just as Italy’s new government — Premier Enrico Letta and his new ministers — were taking their oaths at the Quirinal presidential office, about a half-mile away. The suspected gunman, dressed in a dark business suit, was immediately grabbed by other police in the square, wrestled to the ground and taken away. Laviani, who later questioned the alleged assailant, said the man “wanted to shoot politicians, but given that he couldn’t reach any, he shot the Carabinieri” police. Laviani added that the man “confessed everything,” but didn’t appear mentally unbalanced.”

From AP:

The shooting “was the tragic gesture of an unemployed man,” Interior Minister Angelino Alfano also told reporters after briefing Letta and his new Cabinet about the attack.

 

 

Alfano said the alleged gunman — 49-year-old Luigi Preiti — wanted to kill himself after the shooting but ran out of bullets. He said six shots were fired.

 

Italian media reports said the assailant was from southern Calabria and had lived for several years in northern Italy before moving back to Calabria after his marriage fell apart.

 

Sky TG24 TV quoted the man’s brother as saying the alleged attacker had lost his job


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Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid

 

Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...



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Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...



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Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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