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Saturday, September 24, 2022

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Tuesday Topics – Market Manipulation, Oil Inventories and the Death of Democracy

SPY 5 MINUTEIs this a joke?

As we thought, yesterday's volume was very low – it was actually the 2nd lowest day of the year,  that didn't stop the Nikkei and the Hang Seng from following us up half a point but Shanghai was flat at 2,008, dropping 10 points from its pumped up open and I'm sorry but you are NUTS to be too bullish in this market when that index is in danger of failing 2,000.  

I don't mean not bullish at all – our LTP is still 100% bullish but it's hedged by the STP, which is mostly bearish.  Just – BE CAREFUL!!!

Did you catch that news item above? "Shinzo Abe turned to Nobel laureate Robert Shiller to try to

restore a vital ingredient of his economic revolution: optimism."  That's the World we're living in now – Central Bankers aren't even ashamed to admit that they manipulate the news and take actions aimed at making you THINK the economy is recovering.  

That's based on the old "truism" that, if people are optimistic, the economy will improve but it's FLAWED because consumers no longer have any discretionary income to spend and they don't have any savings and small businesses, who still employ 80% of the workers, don't have any money to spend either.  

They have shifted the bulk of the discretionary GDP to the top 0.01% who don't spend it at all but use it to consolidate their empires.  All these old economic rules don't apply to an oligarchy – every act of stimulus only serves to make the rich richer and push the rest of the country further into debt.  Sure, the rich are in debt too but a guy with $1Bn owes the same $164,000 per family as the guy with $100,000 does.  

Not only that, but when you tax the top 0.01% 15-20% but tax the bottom 99.99% 35%, the money just keeps funneling to the top.  This madness has to end but, like Global Warming, it happens too slowly for most people to be aware of it until it's far too late.  Maybe it is already too late – look at the way Occupy Wall Street was crushed out of existence by coordinated thuggery by our Corporate-sponsored Governments

It was more sophisticated than we had imagined: new documents show that the violent crackdown on Occupy last fall – so mystifying at the time – was not just coordinated at the level of the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and local police. The crackdown, which involved, as you may recall, violent arrests, group disruption, canister missiles to the skulls of protesters, people held in handcuffs so tight they were injured, people held in bondage till they were forced to wet or soil themselves –was coordinated with the big banks themselves.

The Partnership for Civil Justice Fund, in a groundbreaking scoop that should once more shame major US media outlets (why are nonprofits now some of the only entities in America left breaking major civil liberties news?), filed this request. The document – reproduced here in an easily searchable format – shows a terrifying network of coordinated DHS, FBI, police, regional fusion center, and private-sector activity so completely merged into one another that the monstrous whole is, in fact, one entity: in some cases, bearing a single name, the Domestic Security Alliance Council. And it reveals this merged entity to have one centrally planned, locally executed mission. The documents, in short, show the cops and DHS working for and with banks to target, arrest, and politically disable peaceful American citizens.

This is over a year old but, of course, it was never even allowed on the US News.  

As Mara Verheyden-Hilliard, executive director of the PCJF, put it, the documents show that from the start, the FBI – though it acknowledgesOccupy movement as being, in fact, a peaceful organization – nonetheless designated OWS repeatedly as a "terrorist threat":

"FBI documents just obtained by the Partnership for Civil Justice Fund (PCJF) … reveal that from its inception, the FBI treated the Occupy movement as a potential criminal and terrorist threat … The PCJF has obtained heavily redacted documents showing that FBI offices and agents around the country were in high gear conducting surveillance against the movement even as early as August 2011, a month prior to the establishment of the OWS encampment in Zuccotti Park and other Occupy actions around the country."

You would think the Tea Party would be outraged by this clearly outrageous Government behavior but the Tea Party is a Koch-sponsored farce, not an actual organization that actually cares about individual rights.  The GOP wants smaller Government – except for the ones that crack the heads and the Dems are no better as I haven't heard a single one stand up for these people, other than Elizabeth Warren, of course.  

These documents also show these federal agencies functioning as a de facto intelligence arm of Wall Street and Corporate America."

There is a new twist: the merger of the private sector, DHS and the FBI means that any of us can become WikiLeaks, a point that Julian Assange was trying to make in explaining the argument behind his recent book. The fusion of the tracking of money and the suppression of dissent means that a huge area of vulnerability in civil society – people's income streams and financial records – is now firmly in the hands of the banks, which are, in turn, now in the business of tracking your dissent.

Oh wait, I take it back, the Washington Post did publish something about this in their blog section – on Dec 31st, 2012 – just in time for no one to notice it.  

Am I crazy to care about this stuff?  

Sometimes I feel like I am, but I guess that's the point of the top 0.01% taking control of the media – the idea is to make us feel like there's something wrong with us when we question the status quo. As Orwell said and as Goebbels put into practice, history can be rewritten until people can't even remember the way things were before.  I see that all the time in my kids' "history" books.  

Now that we are, effectively, "burning" the last of the paper books in the world (2 more generations, at most), all of history will be electronic and then, when they change it, no one will ever know.  

Same goes with Financial Info – if you listen to CNBC or Bloomberg, oil is heading to $110 over the summer but, if you dig enough (and this one is even on Bloomberg.com), you find out this truth:

WTI slid for a second month in April as U.S. crude inventories expanded to a record 399.4 million barrels, the highest level since the Energy Information Administration began publishing weekly data in 1982. Supplies were probably at 398.5 million barrels in the week ended May 16, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined to 23.4 million barrels in the seven days through May 9, said the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. That’s the least since December 2008. Supplies have decreased as the southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline began moving oil to Gulf Coast refineries from storage in January. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer.

So it's not that there's been any real draw on oil at all – new record highs means new record highs – they've just moved the oil from Cushing (where it's measured) to other places where it isn't.  

Oil (/CLN4 = July) is $102.32 today (we're short from $102.50 already), the boost is being caused by the rolling of /CLM4 ($102.76), which expires tomorrow, into the next month contracts.  That means, once the rolling is done – if Russia does back down in the Ukraine, the only real boost left for oil is Libya – and Libya only produces 1Mbd total.  So, still hope for a sell-off but a very tough call with the holiday weekend coming up – maybe not until next week.  

Silver, meanwhile, tapped our long line at $19.30 again (/SI) – I still like that over the line.  Copper fell back to $3.145, nat gas is $4.46 and gasoline dove back to $2.96 and now that's a nice long (/RB) into the weekend as I'm sure they'll go for $3 again. 

 
 

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Good Morning Moscow………

You know there is something wrong with the climate when it's warmer in Moscow than in New Jersey in May. I was actually talking to my colleagues this morning and they were telling me that while we froze to death this winter with temperatures in the 10's and 20's in NJ, they had temperatures in the high 30's here in Moscow. Totally normal I am sure, nothing to worry about. 

My second impression is that the money that was spent for the Winter Olympics in Sochi would have been better spent on the infrastructure in Moscow. But from what my Brazilian friends tell me, the same is true for the World Cup in Brazil. Just crazy!

Oh, and the RSX is a screaming "BUY" 🙂 

Zero told me to add that in case people here take my comments as negative! I'm balancing them with positive stock market comments.

Oil Lines

R3 – 103.42
R2 –  102.96
R1 – 102.59
PP – 102.12
S1 – 101.76
S2 – 101.30
S3 – 100.93

So is the oil piling up somewhere like the cars in the ghost carlots you pointed out yesterday? Fascinating. Stuff can't be sold, so we don't stop making it but instead pile it up somewhere. Very strange world we live in.

You are at your best again Phil

Good Morning!

Good morning all!

Phil, I think the link you posted for the webinar is for panelists only.

I can't seem to be able to see any comments for yesterday. I have tried it with 3 browsers and I can only get the main page and no comments. And yes, I am logged in.

Update… Whatever it was it is now solved and I can see Monday's comments. Sorry.

Good morning!

 

aka….click this link for yesterday's comments to see if it works.

Pharm – Yes, thank you. It is working.

PFE/qc – guesses…..none at the moment.  Cubist is going to be an interesting play as well.  Antibacterials are going to be needed, and the company is cheap.

Pharm

You think PFE would be interested in Shire plc (SHPG)

Thanks

I also had problems with yesterdays comments, nothing after about 7.30am, although I can see them now. Also got 10 copies of the Dow chemicals email so something is screwy somewhere

SHPG/qc – to put it bluntly, PFE will sleep with anyone.  The bigger, the better.

Netflix locks up Mata Mata for Latin American audiences • 8:25 AM

Netflix Latin America (NFLX) says it purchased soccer drama Mata Mata from Red Arrow International.

Mata Mata tracks three young Brazilian soccer superstars for three years.

The company is looking to capitalize on the heightened interest in soccer in Latin American countries with the FIFA World Cup around the corner.

Terms of the content acquisition weren't disclosed.

Professor davis

good morning!

very high workload morning post!

TASR: I sold 1/4 position puts , Jan2016, $15 for $3.00

time to DD? Or wait for $5 on the same puts? (Now$4.10)

Where does silver go from here:

http://shortsideoflong.com/2014/05/decision-time-silver-2/

Silver Technicals

To break on the upside, Silver will have to overcome a downtrend line, which has been in place since the bear market began in May 2011. On the other hand, if Silver was to move towards new bear market lows, it will first have to break a strong support area around $18.50 to $19.00 per ounce. A break in either direction could occur very soon, and would be a leading indicator for the rest of the PM space.

I jumped in earlier thinking that it was overdone, but clearly, not the best investment now!

Good chart, Stj! So disappoint of ABX. I was hoping it'd keep dropping to previous low (15.4). :-I

Phil / Webinar – I don't know either, but when I try to register this is what I get:

Phil / Webinar – Sorry. I tried to post some pictures, but I could not. When I try to register I get:

Your e-mail address does not match any of panelist's e-mail address specified by the event host. Please re-enter or contact the event host.

Silver / Phil – Actually, I meant I jumped in for the long run in the SLV ETF… Selling calls now. And will add more if needed.

Phil/Silver~ Do you know how much is the production cost of silver?

aapl and tsla can't make up their minds if they want to go up or down!

Invest silver

I am sure a cost of production is out there but the fact is it is a byproduct of mining for other metals. That is what has kept the prices low, without trying they get more than then can sell. Anyone thinking different should remember the Hunts, it could revisit that low again. 

Don't people ever learn:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/cloud-services-stock-bubble-gets-pricked-despite-defenders-143836317.html

Shares of Workday (WDAY), for example, hit $116 in February, giving the HR services company a value of over $21 billion. The company had total revenue last year of just $469 million and a net loss of $173 million. At 45 times sales, Workday was one of the most expensive large-cap stocks in the market. Google (GOOG) sells at just 6 times its sales, Facebook (FB) at less than 17. The ratio for the entire S&P 500 is under 2. […]

Scott Kupor and Preethi Kasireddy, venture capitalists at Andreesen Horowitz, wrote last week defending the cloud players, arguing that so-called software-as-a-service providers are fundamentally different than other kinds companies. Don’t look at their revenue or profits or cash flow – the business is so different and so special, they say, that those standard kinds of metrics are too simple.

I remember that talk from the end of the 90's with Internet companies. That didn't end well. I predict a similar result.

Nice move on those CAT puts.  My position is up 30% so far.

Different / Phil – The business themselves are different, but the financial principles are the same – company sells products or services, company makes money or loses money! And stock prices eventually reflect that last principle. It does sometimes take a long time for the stock price to reflect reality – it's really down to how good your PR machine is now and how many people like Icahn you have tweeting for you, it has nothing to do with your business in general. See TSLA, AMZN and others.

Phil silver

It wasn't until silver got over $20 that dedicated mines emerged so cost is likely below that. Like copper stores in China, they also have silver and it makes sense that lower purchases have cut the price in half. Back in the 70s silver was a product of lead smelting, the sulfuric acid was considered more valuable. Many gold mines produce larger amounts of silver. The main industrial use of silver is switch contacts where the wiping across is a sort of self cleaning and silver oxide is second to silver in conductivity. If the world falls into another recession, China may lead that, the price could fall in half again. Silver makes great wire but it is so soft that it breaks from it's considerable weight and forget flexing. Limited use and large quantities don't hold prices when the truth appears. It isn't corn, oil or steel as a commodity, and never had the attraction of gold. In Montana years ago small time gold miners could sell gold but couldn't give away the silver ore, no one would refine it, so it is sitting in slag piles that the EPA never cleans up. Maybe that explains why. This is not in balance sheets anywhere but some of us know where to find it. FWIW in troubled times gold is a safer investment, silver should be only short term like you say between $18 and $20.

That new MSFT Surface Pro 3 looks like a winner to me.

Shadow:  Troubled times, yes.  War, revolution, etc.  But "lowflation"?  — stretching to the horizon when a very large percentage of the U.S., European, Chinese populations, and everyone else who sells raw materials and manufactured goods to them — has no money to spend at the margin?  I can't say you're wrong.  I also can't figure out what good a bar of gold does me when prices are falling worldwide.  A conundrum for our times, I think.

Surface Pro 3:

http://gizmodo.com/the-surface-pro-3-has-a-big-beautiful-12-inch-screen-1578974248

The Surface Pro 3 is not only bigger than its predecessor, it's also thinner at 9mm, lighter at 800g. If that doesn't mean much to you, it's way lighter than the Macbook Air, which Microsoft proved on stage with a gat dang scale.

The new stretch to 12 inches diagonal also brings the Surface Pro 3 up to an unusual 2:3 aspect ratio, with a resolution of 2160 x 1440.

And on the downside the Surface Pro is Microsoft and uses an incredibly difficult and annoying operating system.  User unfriendly.

Thanks, Shadow. I think most precious metals’ charts suggest a strong move is coming. I’m not sure which way it will go. Let the chart guide us.

back from St John and T-minus 12 days to my coin release. Good times!

Stj, my colleague returned the iPad just got the Surface Pro maybe 2… It’s a great tablet for work as it’s totally compatible with Office n other PC programs.

I am gonna buy them up BDC, and split the profits with you creating a false sense of security for a coin that does not exist..  Oh, wait, did I say front-run?  🙂

Your welcome investwizard

zeroxzero you are reading the actual times that are coming, the entire world's foundation is falling apart and the rich, want to be rich and many well to dos don't get people like me with no extra income for anything, I have cut out medical wants also, are their support. The FU is going to rise back up, can't hire bank tellers here, Burger King closed, and ski hill wants the county to finance a new lift. Things work until they don't anymore.

This should be the right link for the 1pm Webinar.  

Webinar – I am still going to the Panelist page. Can anyone confirm if they can join/register the webinar?

Thank you

X finally breaking down below 200MA

Come on DXD's. Come to daddy!

Akademia, Phil:

The link goes to Panelist…..a new link please!

Yup, Phil. That Surface basically functions like a PC. There’s a market for that. 🙂

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