Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

World Record Wednesday – S&P Ironically Makes 1984

SPY 5 MINUTE1984!  

As I pointed out in our Member Chat Room this morning, there is a Bloomberg article this morning on the CPI report that says:

The cost of living in the U.S. rose at a slower pace in June and home sales climbed to an eight-month high, showing the economy is generating little price pressure as growth accelerates.

But growth is NOT accelerating, is it?  We JUST had a GDP report that showed exactly the opposite, yet here we have a noted MSM publication simply ignoring that FACT:

How do people read these things and just accept them?  How do authors write them?  How do editors OK them?  Not even the commenters seem to catch it – it's like the whole World just accepts the BS of the moment.  

This is what Orwell predicted it would be like in a future where the media became electronic and the past was instantly forgotten by a population that was unable to think for itself.  

It took them 30 more years than planned, but here we are!  

"And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed -if all records told the same tale — then the lie passed into history and became truth. 'Who controls the past,' ran the Party slogan, 'controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.' And yet the past, though of its nature alterable, never had been altered. Whatever was true now was true from everlasting to everlasting. It was quite simple. All that was needed was an unending series of victories over your own memory. 'Reality control', they called it: in Newspeak, 'doublethink'.

"The past, he reflected, had not merely been altered, it had been actually destroyed. For how could you establish even the most obvious fact when there existed no record outside your own memory?"

Orwell also nailed it as to our present form of Government and the media:

"By comparison with that existing today, all the tyrannies of the past were half-hearted and inefficient. The ruling groups were always infected to some extent by liberal ideas, and were content to leave loose ends everywhere, to regard only the overt act and to be uninterested in what their subjects were thinking. Even the Catholic Church of the Middle Ages was tolerant by modern standards. Part of the reason for this was that in the past no government had the power to keep its citizens under constant surveillance. 

"The invention of print, however, made it easier to manipulate public opinion, and the film and the radio carried the process further. With the development of television, and the technical advance which made it possible to receive and transmit simultaneously on the same instrument, private life came to an end.

"Every citizen, or at least every citizen important enough to be worth watching, could be kept for twenty-four hours a day under the eyes of the police and in the sound of official propaganda, with all other channels of communication closed. The possibility of enforcing not only complete obedience to the will of the State, but complete uniformity of opinion on all subjects, now existed for the first time."

Meanwhile, Fox is buying TWX (AOL, Turner Networks, CNN, HBO, Cinemax, Warner Brothers, Cartoon Network, DC Comics, People, Time, Fortune, Sports Illustrated) - and no one is freaking out. 

If this deal goes through, how long do Bill Maher and John Oliver have left?  

Hitler outlined his theory of propaganda and censorship in Mein Kampf:

"The chief function of propaganda is to convince the masses, whose slowness of understanding needs to be given time so they may absorb information; and only constant repetition will finally succeed in imprinting an idea on their mind."

It's a lesson our leaders have taken to heart (listen to this clip while reading Hitler's original words):

The Nazis didn't suddenly appear in the 1940s, in the spring of 1933, Nazi student organizations, professors, and librarians made up long lists of books they thought should not be read by Germans. Then, on the night of May 10, 1933, Nazis raided libraries and bookstores across Germany. They marched by torchlight in nighttime parades, sang chants, and threw books into huge bonfires. On that night more than 25,000 books were burned. Some were works of Jewish writers, including Albert Einstein and Sigmund Freud. Most of the books were by non-Jewish writers, including such famous Americans as Jack London, Ernest Hemingway, and Sinclair Lewis, whose ideas the Nazis viewed as different from their own and therefore not to be read.

If the Nazis had had the backing of a Conservative Billionaire or two, they could have just as easily have bought up the publishers and simply shut off the public's access to those authors, the way Amazon is currently cutting off Stephen Colbert and other Hachette authors:

I'm not saying anything about Jeff Bezos' political leanings – just pointing out how the unfettered consolidation of media makes it POSSIBLE to allow just a few select Billionaires to control almost everything you see and hear.  Mark my words, if you're not going to care about this stuff now – you'll be intellectually unable to in a few more years….

The Financial Media is already completely locked down with Murdoch at the Journal and Fox and Bloomberg is owned by Billionaire Bloomberg and CNBC owned by Comcast and, although Billionaire Brain Roberts only owns 1% of the common stock – so he is not usually associated as controlling the company – he actually controls an "undilutable" 33% of the voting stock.  Legal expert Susan P. Crawford has said this gives him "effective control over its [Comcast's] every step."  

With $18.8 million spent in 2013 (a non-election year), Comcast has the seventh largest lobbying budget of any individual company or organization in the United States.  Comcast employs multiple former US Congressmen as lobbyists.  Now, I like Brian Roberts – he's a great guy, philanthropic, middle-of-the-road politically, etc. – I'm just pointing out that, even when you don't realize it, there's still a man behind the curtains pulling the strings on your information.

So, ask yourself – "What do Billionaires own lots of?"  Stocks and Real Estate (and media companies).  Do you see, then, how those media companies might tend to overstate the value of stocks and real estate and understate any negatives in the economy that may jeopordize the value of those holdings?  

Something to think about. 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!

Comments (reverse order)

    You must be logged in to make a comment.
    You can sign up for a membership or log in

    Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

    Click here to see some testimonials from our members!

  1. Four Michigan Farms Selected To Produce Electricity.

    The AP (7/23) reports that four farms in Michigan “have been selected to produce electricity for a utility using biodegradable material in anaerobic digesters.” On Tuesday, “CMS Energy Corp. announced the plans…saying it’s a part of an effort to diversify the use of renewable energy by Consumers Energy.” The utility says the farms “could generate electricity under contracts that collectively provide 2.6 megawatts of capacity.”

  2. Oil Lines

    R3 – 104.60
    R2 – 104
    R1 – 103
    PP – 102.40
    S1 – 101.43
    S2 – 100.82
    S3 – 99.85

  3. Look at where inflation has come from over the last 8 years:

    While there are eight sectors shown, the chart clearly shows that the main drivers of inflation in the CPI are Housing, Transportation, Food & Beverages, and Medical Care.  Together, these four sectors account for more than 85% of the total increase in the CPI over the last eight years.

    Incomes outside the top 1% not keeping up…

  4. Good charts about the global real estate situation:

  5. Phil,

    Your thoughts on this small speculative play.  PLUG 2016 $5/$7 BCS for $0.66 and selling the $3 puts for $0.81, net $0.15 credit on the trade with a $2.34 + $0.81 = $3.15 upside.  Below $5 but above $3 you keep $0.15, and worst case the stock is put to you at $3.   I expect the pricing will change when the market open…

  6. Phil

    if you have time

    PXLW/ QC – remind me to take a closer look later


  7. Phil there seem to be two current Apple trades, 2016 80/100 BCS and 85.71/100 BCS. Which one, if either, is your current recommendation, or are you now adjusting to a different play altogether? I know you have answered this ad nauseum, but I want to add a bit in one of my portfolios. Thanks.

  8. INO….never would have thought…..

  9. Good morning! 

    We're waiting for oil inventories (10:30) before deciding whether or not to play.  It's MUCH harder to call oil when we are far away from the rollover date (usually around the 20th, was just yesterday on previous contract), so we tend not to mess around with oil as much at the start of a new contract.  

    1,980 is a good shorting line on /ES if it fails.  /YM below 17,050, /NQ below 3,970 and /TF below 1,155 will confirm.  Dollar over 80.80 needs to hold too.  TLT over 115 is a sign people are nervous though VIX still under 12 means not nervous enough to buy puts yet. 

  10. BRCM over $40 this morning. Looking good… EMC up as well after some decent earnings and increasing their stock buyback.

  11. And tons of fun earnings tonight… I'll post the list in a bit.

  12. Pharm or Phil:  Posted this too early in am, showed up in Tuesdays discussion. Appreciate any thoughts.


    UBS just raised Puma Biotechnology (PBYI, $59.00) from $125.00 to $325.00!

  13. CAKE
    Consensus Estimate – 0.61
    Whisper Number – 0.62
    Average Move – 5.4%
    Priced into Options – 5.4% (August)

    Consensus Estimate – 1.35
    Whisper Number – 1.35
    Average Move – 9.3%
    Priced into Options – 5.48%

    Consensus Estimate – 0.32
    Whisper Number – 0.36
    Average Move – 7.4%
    Priced into Options – 6.6%

    Consensus Estimate – 1.76
    Whisper Number – 1.61
    Average Move – 5.4%
    Priced into Options – 4.37%

    Consensus Estimate – 1.22
    Whisper Number – 1.24
    Average Move – 5.2%
    Priced into Options – 3.17%

    Consensus Estimate – 0.41
    Whisper Number – 0.47
    Average Move – 10%
    Priced into Options – 10% (August)

    Consensus Estimate – 0.61
    Whisper Number – 0.66
    Average Move – 7.9%
    Priced into Options – 6.9% (August)

    EW bullish on GILD and SKX!

  14. Phil, I had a pre mkt order for 100 shares of MORL at 22.20, I see the low was 22.03. I called the broker – OptionsXpress – and they said that order for 22.03  was filled on the NASDAQ and mine was on the PSE as that was the primary exchange so exchange rule 611 applied and 1 second later it was at 22.27. All that BS means I did not get my fill. Do you think I would have any recourse, or just screwed. Thanks

  15. EW bullish on GILD and SKX! – Who or what is EW?  Sorry, I'm new.

  16. Quote of the day:

    Carl Richards, “Knowledge alone isn’t enough. Even though we know it’s a bad idea to buy high and sell low, spend more than we earn, or invest in only one stock, we still repeat these mistakes.”  (Bucks Blog)

  17. EW / tshroyer – Earnings Whisper (

    Not a recommendation from me, just the sentiment there! 

  18. IRBT/Phil- With the stock price dropping, this looks like a good entry opportunity, so what do you suggest?

  19. PBYI, wish someone called an option play on that puppy.  An option play that said buy all the calls at 70 you can afford for this week.

  20. Farms/QC – Good stuff, I hope it works.  

    Inflation/StJ – Average 17.8% in 8 years is still a big understatement.  Who's heath insurance and out of pocket costs have only gone up 29.6% since 2006?  Very strange how they seem to underweight Medical Care too, since it's 15% of our GDP it should have more, not less weight.  Meanwhile, in-line with our overall theory that the consumers are tapped out, discretionary items of Recreation and Apparel go up the least.

    Housing Prices/StJ – People don't buy houses, they buy mortgages.  A $250,000 mortgage that was 7% pre-crisis cost $1,663 per month.  Now, at 4%, you can get a $350,000 mortgage for $1,670 per month.  There's your entire rise in house prices – artificially supported by low lending rates.  If the rates go back to 6%, that $350,000 mortgage jumps to $2,098/month – 25% higher!  So figure it costs about 12.5% more in mortgage payments for each 1% rise over 4% and that means a return to "normal" rates around 6% will put 25% downside pressure on housing prices.  Just another way that charts fail to tell you the whole story.  

    PLUG/Sibe – Plug is an uncallable stock, as much of a gamble as any small biotech play.  The trade makes sense if you think you like their story but the stock itself trades on rumors and sentiment that have noting to do with value so, in 2016, the stock could be at $7 or .70 and you still won't know why.  Billion Dollar companies that have $26M in sales don't appeal to me even when they are making money at 50x earnings – this one is losing $62M to make those $26M in sales.   Last Quarter, they sold 5.5M in product but managed to lose $76M.  Maybe, if you are very lucky, this Q they will announce that they will stop trying to sell stuff – that should rocket the value!  

    PXLW/QC – Did I say that?  Damn…  Well, it's essentially a penny stock with a $211M market cap and $48M in sales (maybe PLUG should buy them!) on which they "only" lose $9M.  They've got enough cash to do it for another year and no debt so, if they do get profitable by the end of the year, it's going to be an attractive stock.  If they hadn't already jumped 100% this year (and 400% since last year), I'd like them for a chance but I'd wait  until earnings (31st) and hope they miss to get in.  Look at how many times this stock drops 30-50% from it's highs – why would you want to bet that this particular high will be different? 

    AAPL/Craigs – At this moment, with AAPL at $96.22, for a new trade, I like the 2016 $80/100 bull call spread at $10.25 and, frankly, that's a fantastic spread by itself as it pays a double at $100 and is $16.22 in the money to start.  You can sell the $80 puts for $5.50 and knock the net down to $4.75 but I'd hold off and only sell if there's a nice pullback and you can sell the $85s for $10 or better (now $7.70).  That trade is too good not to take so let's add 20 for $20,500 in the Long-Term Portfolio, which will be messy as we have another position that kind of overlaps, but we can deal with that later.  

    BRCM/StJ – Told you I like them better than QCOM!  

    From the Buy List:

    • BRCM is one we like to buy whenever they are not expensive.  They had a nice sell-off last year and we grabbed them at $25 but it doesn't look like that will happen again – now $30.23.  They only pay a .48 dividend (1.5%) so forget that and we can sell the 2016 $30 puts for $4.10 for a net $25.90 entry and leave it at that and, if they weren't already in the LTP (we sold the 2016 $25 puts for $3.10 when it was lower) I'd add it now.  

    Submitted on 2014/04/23 at 3:52 pm

    • QCOM – I like BRCM better but these guys are good too.  Not too sure they'll hit their number @ $1.22/share though they did have a nice beat in Q4 @ $1.26.  Had they sold off, I'd like them long but they didn't and they are too good to want to short – tempting though it may be.  

    PBYI/Jmd – Sorry, I don't follow them at all.  Sounds intriguing though.  

    MORL/Jomp – Just screwed really.  You can make a lot of noise and push it if it's worth the bother but OPXS generally would rather piss off a customer than lose money accommodating them.  This is why very few of us use them – we all get burned eventually.  

    IRBT/Craigs – I suggest waiting patiently and seeing how it plays out.  I THINK $35 will hold but they just dropped 10% on the day, so maybe we should give them a chance to find a floor?

  21. "You are a slow learner, Phil."
    "How can I help it? How can I help but see what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four."
    "Sometimes, Phil. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder. It is not easy to become sane."  

  22. Learning/Prof – Reminds me of my second-favorite Star Trek episode, where Picard is tortured for days and all the torturer wants is for Picard to see five lights when there are actually four.  

  23. PBYI – well, from their Phase 2 data, they looked ok, but not a slam dunk.  This data is very good, but they have one drug in clinic, one.  Look at their pipeline.  IF anything fails…anything….what do you think with happen?  It was a binary event, and I do not usually play binary events.  The stock had not moved much …. until now. 

  24. Phil – PXLW chart … you are truly turning into a TA Zen Master! Using PPO, EMA’s, $SPX relative strength to prove your point … WOW!!! ;-)

  25. And the Aug 100 Calls were 1.45 yesterday…


  26. /TF still very bouncy off 1,150 – nice for the bulls, back over 1,155.  /ES gave us 4 points but now back to 1,980.

    By the way, on that AAPL trade – good example of PATIENCE being a valid strategy.  Why gamble on the position ahead of earnings when AFTER we get more FACTS, we can still make a nice trade like that with 100% upside?  

    Oil inventories are out:  Oil down 4Mb but Gasoline up 3.6Mb, Distillates up 1.6Mb so net build.  Oil shooting up to $103 and an excellent short there (/CL).

  27. TA Master/Diamond – Yep, that's me, Mr. TA!  wink

    U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day during the week 
    ending July 18, 2014, 28,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
    Refineries operated at 93.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging about 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.

    U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.4 million barrels per day last week, down by
    20,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil 
    imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels per day, 4.2% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 625,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 91,000 barrels per day last week.

    U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum 
    Reserve) decreased by 4.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 371.1 million 
    barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week but are near the lower limit of the average range for this  time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.2 million barrels last week and are near the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels last week. 

    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 19.3 million barrels per day, down by 2.0% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, down by 1.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 6.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 1.0% compared to the same four-week period last year.

  28. As I said yesterday, and last week….SPX 2000 will be delivered….just a matter of time.  No downed airline, war in the Middle East (well, 3 wars no?), viral outbreak, or anything will stop this market.  When interest rates start to rise, then, and only then, will we have a pause.  3B in POMO today FWIW.

  29. The lead doctor in Sierra Leon is now infected with Ebola.  Sheesh.  Lose a majority of the HIV workers, and now the lead person on Ebola has a 10% chance of survival (higher chance if they caught it early). 

    AP BREAKING: Dutch military plane carrying bodies from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash lands in Eindhoven.

    Oye ve!

  30. For all those considering shorting oil. There was another plane crash in Taiwan, weather caused, but on news like today the peak price is usually 11:00 and then it drops. Best to you. 

  31. wow. oil spreads  just skyrocketed 35%

  32. Oil

    short /clu4 long /clv4 @ 1.42 credit

  33. edro //  U / V

  34. As it's not too crazy today – I'm going to pop over to Maddie's Art Show at the High School.  I should be back about 12:30.

    If you miss me, enjoy the Webinar Replay.

  35. I'm pretty much never shorting oil again.

  36. DJIA still negative.  Everything else up….TRIN elevated. VIX is steady…..Hummmm…….

  37. BRCM / Phil – Well I got in QCOM when they were at $60 and in BRCM when they plunged to $26 so I like both of them as long as they are cheap…

  38. IRBT – $35 is a pretty strong S/R line going back to last year. It's also a 38% retrace Fib line from the highs. $31 is the 50% retrace.

  39. Wombat -

    I set up an OTO trade at market with the custom order condition close("/clv4")-close("/clu4")>1.75

    So when the spread goes above 1.75 in this case the trade executes.  This is in TOS

  40. good call – i've been buying from .90 !!!
    i don't think it'll trigger when i look at the technicals, looks as its losing steam on this BS move
    but it is oil ; >

  41. Pharm-I have 10 call options on Ino @ 2.5 that I sold presplit 8x. I only have them because they were too expensive to buy back sooo am waiting for the expiration for them to be assigned. I can't remember how I even found them, but it was a reverse split 7 to 1 I think. Am I correct in thinking they will be assigned with the 2500 in margin & then I can sell the 1K shares? I did the same thing with rgen but that was just a call assigned that I sold after the fact.

  42. STJ – I'm out of BRCM.  Long a little QCOM, and so far, it's like watching paint dry.  Maybe, it gets a pop after earnings this evening. 

  43. StJ / VXX
    I've been watching this the past few months. Is there any reason for VXX, in terms of P/L, to behave any differently than any other option ?
    The reason I ask is I'm experiencing drastic swings in the total P/L, where I would expect it to gradually be on the upswing.

  44. Anyone own AAL into earnings tomorrow?

  45. A little lunchtime snippet--note the intelligent quote from the Toll Brothers guy. at the end.

  46. edro / U / V
    already pulling back – you may want to scale in

  47. Wombat/Spreads – I'm in the calendar spread for a decent chunk.  I hope this reverses.  Showing pretty big losses, but option expiration is a long ways off.  This too shall pass?

  48. palotay/Spreads – I just closed my short CLU and will close long CLV when oil rises back up here in a bit

  49. palotay // CL
    ah, good to hear i'm not a rogue pirate. already reversing. i have no idea outside of ukraine why a build on inventory would spike like this. like i mentioned, i was tracking inventories and i started buying in at .90 I have a swing of 50K – not for the feint hearted ; >
    Titanic about to leave port – bets please. bets please.

  50. Jabo ?

  51. I'm averaged in at a spread of about $2.05 (now $2.50).  This is between CLU and CLX.  For 15 contracts.  Being short this type of spread above $1.75 has been very successful the last few months.  Thanks Wombat for the heads up on this strategy (I hope not famous last words).    

  52. VXX / Wombat – There are a couple of factors at play:

    1. Bid/ask spread are pretty wide in the Jan 16 options. Sometimes they tighten up and you get a bump in the Theo price.
    2. It's counter-intuitive in the sense that usually put prices will have a tendency to inflate when the underlying instrument goes lower because most stocks move with the market and the VIX goes up as well and so does IV. But with VXX, it goes opposite the market so VXX goes lower when the VIX goes lower and put prices lose some premium when they should be gaining some.  

    You really need to forget it for the next 18 months! I know it's hard, but I have faith…

  53. wombat???

  54. Palotay

    Why did you choose to pair the clu contract with the clx contract rather than the clv contract?

  55. I think that is how the overall strategy was explained to me.  Do you always cover with the next month?  The last few months I've always covered a short position in the current contract with the one 2 months away.  Maybe I misunderstood Wombat's explanation?  It has been working like a charm though.  Short at >$1.75, cover at $1.30, rinse and repeat.

  56. palotay/Spreads – I am new to Futures trading, and trading in general actually. Could you explain what you mean by short at >$1.75 and cover at $1.30?  I started membership here yesterday and am trying to learn as much as I can.

  57. $1.75 is the spread between the September and the November oil futures.  The difference varies due to contract expiration, geo/pol issues, options expiration, etc.  Wombat, Edro, and I have been shorting the spread when it gets high, and covering when it is low.  

  58. The current spread is $2.50 or so.  Hence the losses.

  59. pharm, pbyi--so what happens after positive phase 3 results?  is this a shorting opptnty, or does the stock keep going go to the moon from here? TIA

  60. I have been selling the front month and buying the next month.  I start when the spread is > $1.01 and scale in 1x every +.20.  I close the position when the spread <0.65.

    I have only been doing this the last couple of months so I am not the expert.  It seems to work well.


  61. TOS Charting - Does anyone know how to pull a custom chart of the historical spread between two different future contracts within TOS?

  62. Palotay

    put /CLU4-/CLV4 in the symbol box

  63. Nevermind, I figured it out.  You can just type in /CLU4-/CLX4 in the chart box and it will pull it.  Pretty cool.

  64. Palotay -

    You can also use the "Comparison" study to look at the 1 month spread /clu4-/clv4 on the same chart.  
    They seem to track pretty well.

  65. Ricbah;


    If you want to avoid expensive mistakes in the approach with Phis is important that you read all the material and lessons he has in a link in  the front page of the web, is important to understand the concept of risk transfer and a couple of videos the has there, " Be the House not the gambler" and "planting trees" or something like that.

    Most of trades with Phil are options oriented so, if you don´t understand the concept  will not take advantage of his comments….Good luck

  66. Another FDA approval for GILD today!

  67. John Najarian said on Fast Money that he thinks MSFT will hit $60 in 2015.  That would be quite a move for big, old tech company whose stock peaked in 1999 and has done very little since.  I'd be ecstatic with $50.

  68. Edro – Can you explain how to do a custom trade condition in TOS?  I understand the formula, just not where to put it within TOS.  Thx.

  69. Nevermind.  Just figured it out. 

  70. I think the new CEO is really into Cloud and "Internet of Things". That's the future if they can get a good hold on that than MSFT can really perform well. 60 by the end of 2015 is a little stretch though in my opinion.

  71. AAPL/Phil

    Have Jan 2015 $570/$800 bull call spread for $100. What do you recommend doing with this position now? Thank You.

  72. Added a little more to my EZCH position.  Sold some Jan $27 calls.

  73. I'm back! 

    Looks like oil is being a pain in the ass, back at $103 now.  

    Indexes limping along but any up on the S&P is a new record.  

  74. Phil, assume dangerous to short oil into the close, correct?

  75. spanish 10y yld 2.55%…move along..nothing to see here…

  76. AAPL topped out just under $98 (for now).

    Another 10% cut in growth forecasts, but why worry?  IMF cuts 2014 U.S. growth outlook
    • Following unexpected Q1 weakness in the U.S. economy, the IMF trims its full-year 2014 U.S. growth forecast to 1.7% from 2%, but sees that level picking up to 3% over the next 18 months.
    • The agency also sees the first Fed rate hike coming about a year from now, but labor market slack and low inflation should allow the central bank to slowly ratchet up interest rates.
    OMG, what BS logic this is!!!!  Dovish Carney comments hit cable
    • “Demand from the U.K.’s traditional markets such as Europe is a staggering 25 percent below a continuation of its pre-crisis trend,” says Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, also suggesting interest-rate hikes – when they do begin – will be more gradual than typical thanks to the challenges still facing the recovery.
    • Also mentioned in the speech as an impediment is the strong pound, and his words sent sterling lower by about 60 pips, now off 0.15% on the session at $1.7037.
    • With big U.S. and European lenders retrenching amid new regulations and tighter capital requirements, Canadian banks have been expanding south of the border whether by acquisition, boosting existing networks, or hiring newly freed-up executives.
    • "There has been a vacuum created in the U.S.,” says Dick Bove, "And the Canadians are taking advantage, RBC (RY -0.1%) more so than the others.” RBC – which was forced to sell its U.S. retail network following the financial panic – has turned to investment banking, and has increased its share of the U.S. investment bank fee pool by 3% over past 3.5 years, and now ranks 10th in U.S. equity capital markets underwriting and 11th in high-yield; last month it poached two senior bankers from Citigroup.
    • The move by Canadian banks also comes as growth slows at home amid government efforts to slow credit growth to cool a steamy property market.
    • Others of interest include: TD Bank, BMO, Scotiabank (NYSE:BNS), and CIBC (NYSE:CM).
    • Rio Tinto (RIO +0.8%) CEO Sam Walsh says Chinese demand for iron ore remains strongdespite a short term oversupply and indications that India will resume iron ore exports.
    • Walsh says Rio is having to play a balancing act as it and other Pilbara iron ore producers brought on more supply, but "we're easily selling everything that we're producing."
    • China's economy was achieving its expected growth rates, and China's pollution problems also have boosted demand for higher grade iron ore, Walsh says.
    • India may restart iron ore exports, but freeing up its economy also would free up the steel industry and provide growth for Indian iron ore producers, the CEO says.
    • Boeing (BA -2.5%) is pushing down the Dow Jones average despite reporting strong Q2 earnings and raising full-year guidance, as investors focus on a $425M charge involving the company’s KC-46A military tanker program.
    • "It is worrying that Boeing is booking a charge of this magnitude at a relatively early stage in this long-term program, particularly given recent assurances from management that everything was going to plan," RBC analyst Robert Stallard writes.
    • The problem could conjure up scary visions of Boeing’s 787 commercial airliner program, which was bogged down by delays for several years.
    • In today's earnings conference call, CEO Jim McNerney said the charge reflected wiring problems, and sought to ease investor concerns about delivering on the commercial jet order book, noting that requests to defer jet deliveries remained below their historical average.
    • Another area of some concern was cash flow from operations, which came in at $1.81B in Q2, below the $1.94B analysts had forecast.
    And there's another 10% slowing indicator:  Caterpillar reports rolling three-month retail machine sales down 10%
    • Caterpillar (CAT -0.8%) discloses total retail sales of machines for the three-month rolling period ending in June fell 10% after sales had slipped 12% in the three months through May.
    • In the latest rolling period, retail machine sales tumbled 30% in Asia/Pacific, fell 21% in Europe/Middle East, slid 18% in Latin America and rose 14% in North America.
    • For CAT’s resources industries segment, sales dropped 38% compared with a 46% decline in the three months through May.
    • For construction industries, sales growth slowed to 3% in the period from 4% in the period through May; within the segment, the decline in Asia-Pacific sales accelerated to 17%.
    • Among the year's best tech performers, chip stocks are selling off (SOXX -1.8%) on an up day for the Nasdaq following weak numbers from FPGA giant Xilinx (XLNX -14.5%).
    • Xilinx missed FQ1 revenue estimates by over $18M, and also guided for FQ2 revenue to be well below consensus. The company blamed the FQ1 shortfall on soft defense and wireless sales. BMO and BofA/Merrill have downgraded Xilinx; the former thinks Xilinx's 28nm share might be peaking.
    • Xilinx stated on its CC (transcript) the wireless weakness was mostly due to soft 28nm chip sales to Chinese 4G base station vendors; Chinese 4G rollouts have long been viewed as a catalyst for both Xilinx and Altera (ALTR -4.7%). Aerospace/defense sales were hurt by program timing issues.
    • Meanwhile, switch/router vendor Juniper offered light Q3 guidance to go with a Q2 beat. The company noted on its CC (transcript) "market dynamics" for U.S. carriers, including M&A activity, are affecting project rollouts.
    • Also: Analog/mixed-signal IC vendor Linear (LLTC -4.1%) is selling off in spite of beating FQ4 estimates and guiding in-line (8%-11% Y/Y FQ1 rev. growth vs. 9.1% consensus).
    • Notable decliners: FSL -5.3%. IDTI -6.4%. EZCH -3.3%. PMCS -4.3%. LSCC -6.8%. CAVM-4.7%. SMTC -4.1%. ATML -3.2%. TQNT -3.1%. RFMD -2.9%. IRF -2.9%.
    • Qualcomm, NXP, TriQuint, and Cirrus Logic report after the bell.
    • After "testing the market" to find a buyer for its money-losing baseband chip unit (previous), Broadcom (BRCM +0.8%) has decided to simply wind it down, CEO Scott McGregor stated on the Q2 CC (transcript).
    • The chipmaker plans to cut 2.5K jobs (~1/5 of its workforce), and record $230M in charges (mostly cash-based) over the next 12 months. $164M worth of impairment/inventory charges were recorded in Q2.
    • Broadcom's baseband ops are only expected to account for $50M-$60M of expected Q3 revenue of $2.1B-$2.25B. In Q2, they accounted for $84M of the company's $781M in mobile/wireless chip sales (combo chip-dominated).
    • While mobile/wireless sales fell 8% Q/Q due to baseband weakness, infrastructure/networking sales grew 10% to $635M, aided by healthy Ethernet switching chip demand for data center and carrier hardware – heavy spending by Internet giants has bolstered the former market – and the displacement of internally-developed ASICs at switch OEMs.
    • Broadband chip sales rose 12% Q/Q to $625M, thanks to healthy modem and set-top IC sales. Broadcom says it's gaining emerging markets set-top share, and also benefiting from the adoption of advanced features (multi-stream transcoding, extra tuners, the adoption of MoCA home networking).
    • Prior Broadcom earnings coverage
    • "With [gross margins] stabilizing and core demand trends solid, we think investors will want to own Apple (AAPL +3%) stock into bigger-screen iPhone 6 and ecosystem-expanding iWatch/iBand launches," writes Evercore, staying bullish on Apple following its mixed FQ3 results and light FQ4 guidance.
    • Macquarie: "The bottom line is that the iPhone 6 reception is what matters right now." Its target has been raised by $7 to $102. At least 6 other firms have also hiked their PTs today.
    • Citi, which recently launched coverage at Buy, expects 140M iPhone 6 sales over the first 12 months (compares with an iPhone installed base of 300M), and thinks the adoption of installment/early upgrade plans could provide further upside.
    • It's also pleased with Apple's 28% Greater China growth, given fears of tougher competition from local vendors – fast-growing Xiaomi just rolled out a metal-framed flagship phone that goes for $320 unsubsidized.
    • 9to5 Mac reports today Apple is "tentatively" planning to unveil the iPhone 6 in mid-September. Sources state the 4.7" model is set to be shown off, but add a final decision hasn't been made on revealing the 5.5" model at the event. KGI reported last week the 5.5" model could be delayed due to production issues.
    • The site also reports Apple is planning an October event that will likely involve an iWatch/fitness band. Apple is fresh off receiving a patent for a modular smartwatch design that includes a strap with built-in sensors and other circuitry.
    • Prior Apple earnings coverage

  77. Phil – Any thoughts on GILD earnings tonight?  Thanks!

  78. Book/Phil

    Check the link for the wiikibook description. Seems to fit the type of book you had in mind. (

    The blog in its current interactive format appears to start around 1st November 2006. Let me know if that would be an appropriate starting point. Loved this comment from user Gary on 3rd November 2006 "…This blog is about love and making money."

  79. UNP/pwright – don't have an expectation for earnings. Looking to see if holds 102 through the day. will only add before close if close clearly looks to hold over 102.  if do, will go conservative with it and just add one Jan/Sept 105 calendar. if there is some disappointment and falls to my stop will only be $40 or so at risk.  I'd also be surprised if it bolts much past 107.  Position is already very profitable so this is just an additive trickle with momentum.  Next consideration for adding would be a close over 105.

  80. scottmi I'm with you, likely I'll wait until after earnings.  Better not to gamble, just go for the premium burn.

  81. albo / edro
    feel free to email me at 
    this has been posted on the site many times so i don't want to clog the thread


  82. Jabo // ????
    FU TSLA !!!!!!

    ( come on Jabo, I'm a busy man )

  83. StJ / VXX
    Thanks. I conceptually understand this – thanks for the explanation. I think its one of those things I'm going to have to do 2-3 times and let it sink in.
    I think I also have some baggage from getting burned on the VIX so many times and trying to understand its behavior / momentum.
    I'm in for the 2 year haul. I have a system where I will buy a $25 put every time the VXX is up 1% ( if its 4%, I  buy 4 puts ) Do you think thats reasonable strategy ?

  84. Oil/Spank – It's a harsh mistress.  Funny (not to you though), that you felt that way exactly at the top of the move.  That's the hard part, learning to ride out those counter-moves and stick to your guns.  There's rarely ever a good down move that doesn't begin with a spike up to flush out the stops. 

    The trick is to learn to wait for those spikes up…

    Dow/Pharm – Only 12/30 are green, could be a lot worse.   Of course, if BA wasn't down $3, could be better too. 

    QCOM/StJ – Both good and now QCOM is a better deal.

    IRBT/StJ – Holding $35 but still down 8% on the day so that's a weak bounce off 10% drop.  $36.50 is strong bounce – that's the line I'll be most interested in. 

    VXX/Wombat – It's because VXX isn't a real thing.  Each month is nothing more than a parimutuel wager (like at the horse track) on the outcome of the monthly race that you are placing against other bettors after the market makers take their cut.  So, like the odds at a racetrack, your options can vary wildly in price solely dependent on the ebb and flow of other bets during your strike month.  Just like a racetrack too, you are unable to lock in your odds and you won't know what you get paid until the race is over (on expiration day) and you finally have a fixed, photo-finish.  

    AAL/Abhish – I'm with Buffett on that one:

    "How do you become a millionaire? Make a billion dollars and then buy an airline."

    Doors/Griffin – Disgusting trend that's going on in NYC.  

    Oil spreads – Too complicated for me.  I like the simple in and out directional plays as, 99% of the time, I don't have to waste my time paying attention to it.  

    MSFT/Albo – Nagarian thinks MSFT will gain $122Bn in market cap in 18 months or less?  Wow, that's adding more than all of HD or AXP or UPS or MCD or BA or UNP or MA or CVS or UNH or MO or GS…  In fact, there's only 36 companies in America with bigger market caps than $100Bn…   They have done it in the past 18 months, but at least they WERE at $40 15 years ago.  Other than a very brief pop to $60 in 1999, they've never been above $50 otherwise  

    AAPL/Hex – Well, that would be the new $81.43/114.29 bull call spread at $14.29 and now it's $14 so, to make it simple, I like the above $80/100 spread better for $10.25 for obvious reasons.  

    Oil/Options – It's always dangerous, especially at the start of a new contract, when there's no pressure on the NYMEX crooks to unwind their fake orders.  

    Click for
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Sep'14 101.96 103.34 101.79 102.93 13:56
    Jul 23


    0.54 205811 102.39 343029 Call Put
    Oct'14 100.84 101.75 100.61 101.47 13:56
    Jul 23


    0.24 102782 101.23 183803 Call Put
    Nov'14 99.93 100.76 99.70 100.53 13:56
    Jul 23


    0.23 52379 100.30 76801 Call Put
    Dec'14 99.09 99.95 98.86 99.74 13:56
    Jul 23


    0.25 55721 99.49 207336 Call Put

    They have a fat, but manageable 343Mb of fake orders for Sept but the front 4 months are pretty stuffed with 810Mb and it's going to get very ugly in October, when they run out of places to hide before the end of the year.  So, if you are of a mindset to keep shorting and rolling – any time is a good time to play but, if you are just trying to make quick money – the fact that $103 isn't holding it down means you need to wait for $103.50 or a clean break below $103 to try again.  

    Spain/Angel – Wow, would you give them money for 10 years for 2.55%?

    GILD/Diamond – They are supposed to be fantastic but fantastic is already priced in.  It's not an overpriced stock if they are making $1.75 per quarter (at $90, the p/e is 12.85) so not a stock to short but should pull back a bit from $100 and that's only $10 away so why risk anything on earnings?  If they miss – that will be a nice opportunity to go long and, if they pop to $100, you just need to wait for the pullback to go long.  

    Wikibooks/Decad – Interesting but very strict about what they want published, not sure we qualify and, even if we do, not sure I want to dump the whole book into what is essentially an open charity project.  Nor am I excited about working for a year on anything that some 3rd party can pull the plug on down the road.  Yes, that sounds about right for a start date (I was on WordPress before that and Blogger before that).  

    Got my batteries from AMZN, right on time.  It's so easy and fun it makes me want to buy something else – like getting a little present every day.  

  85. Phil,

    I would appreciate a play for DLR current price 63.20 yield 5.5%

    My current position: Bought 200 DLR @55.82, Sold 2 DLR oct 18 2014 calls @60.

    If you like DLR. would you provide an option play to maximize returns. Thanks.

  86. IRBT

    Mar 2015 options available.

  87. Phil – Re:GILD … No fair reading off of my TA crib sheet! ;-)

  88. Phil – How quickly certain social media companies have created wealth is truly mind boggling.  Another snippet I picked up from CNBC today is that FB now how a higher market cap than DIS.  Unreal ! ! !  DIS, one of the premier growth companies of all time, was established 89 years ago.

  89. Thank you Phil.  That is one of the reasons I'm starting so small with my trades right now.  Trying to get a feel for this and understand some of the patterns and moves. I'm sure I'll get better as I continue to read and learn.

  90. Phil: thoughts on FB earnings. Would you ever consider calendar – buy 2016 65 call sell rollable jul4 70call

    (15.8/2.7) and sell put later

  91. wombat… a little slow on the uptake today ;-)


    hope it closes red ;-)

  92. Phil re: IRBT, I'm having another look at this one down at $35.  But I was wondering, do you know if there are a lot of products under development, besides defense / security and the Roomba? 

    I sometimes find it hard to know how to look at IRBT, because, to a certain extent, they look like they are in position to take advantage of a huge growing trend toward robotics, and I'd like to participate in that story. But at the moment, on a quarter by quarter basis, they are mostly dependent on defense / security (which has been weakening), and on Home Robots (ie., the Roomba).  I think that, if they are primarily going to be focusing on the Roomba, a 42 PE and 25 forward seems sort of high (nothing says hot tech stock quite like vacuum cleaners :) )  But, if there were a way to focus the story more on how they can capitalize on the huge growth potential in robotics generally, no doubt the sky would be the limit.

    At any rate, welcome your thoughts and thanks in advance..

  93. AAPL/Phil

    A couple of follow-up questions. First, so are you saying you would recommend selling the Jan 2015 bull call spread now? Second, the 2016 $80/$100 bull call spread is now @ $10.57. Pay that price or wait for $10.25? Thank You.

  94. Phil- any thoughts on FB earnings and a play on FB?

  95. hextra8 

    APPL jan16 BCS The play is a tree planting situation. You most never will get the exact price Phil give as the stock moves during the day. You looking here for a take of 2000K per option play so you pay .20 or .30 cents more is not that important. At present you will spend 10.25 to 10.50 for the play but once you sell the Jan16 putter expecting the stock will drop a bit after the first excitement you cut your expenses in 1/2 or more. After a while you start selling monthly or even weekly callers and in no time the 10.50 will be down to zero. Meaning you paid nothing for the BCS. Remember we talking about 18 month or so out in the future!

  96. What's the deal with YHOO?

  97. Hextra- Phil will correct me if I'm wrong, but I will take a poke. If you believe the stock price will pull back to 96.25 then put the order in at 10.25 and wait. I decided I wanted to catch it today and not wait for a pullback, so I filled at 10.50 when the price was at 97.25. If you believe the price is going way up over the next year as I do, then the .25 won't matter much and you don't take a chance that the price keeps moving away. Chances are it will pull back again at some point, but perhaps not. That is the decision before you.

  98. PBYI – what happens now.  They get approval most likely.  What happens later?  IDK.  I don't play those and they have more trials running withe their ONE compound.  Sorry, I won't play those odds.

    INO/pirate – so you sold naked calls?  Or was it covered stock?  Either way, I am done with them.  Was a while ago, as I was not impressed with the final numbers, although it is 'good enough'.  Now comes the bigger and better trials.  Yes, I like their management team – ex Merck viral scientists.  I don't like the odds.  I am a pessimist right now, I guess.

    ARIA….nice.  For 50c, one can buy the $5/10 Jan15 BCS, selling the $5 Jan15 Ps.  Cheap.  Easy, and sit back mode.

  99. Phil // FCX
    Time for a spread on top of the puts ?

  100. craigsa620 

    AAPL He you getting good at this congrat!

  101. Phil

    I have EDZ Jan 35/Oct 42 call spread.  Originally it was an October spread and per a suggestion from you I rolled the long 35's out to January to buy more time and let the Oct 42's expire.

    Today, the Jan 35's are showing a bid/ask of .10/2.45 which makes the position look awful.  I'm confused by such a wide spread for them and the fact that I'm seeing the Jan 34's with a bid/ask of 1.0/3.8 and the 36's with .7/3.60.  What gives? 

    Thanks for your insight.

  102. yodi- I forgot the piece about selling the puts if the price drops in my answer, but I am not even aware of the call selling piece of the strategy, so could you elaborate how that works? I have been doing fairly well with BCS's and puit selling, but I would love to do even better if there is more to learn about. Thanks. 

    I wanted to add to Hextra that the 10.25 price was gone before Phil finished writing and posting today. The stock price went from 96 at 9:55 am to over 96.50 by 10:10. Phil posted at 10:13 and the price was almost at 97 minutes later.

  103. Phil // FCX
    Time for a spread on top of the puts ?

    Same for IBM // shortputs up 24%

  104. AAPL Jan 16 BCS – Guys, I prefer selling the 105 call vs. the 100.  For $1.80 more you get $5 more upside.

  105. Sorry my computer just crashed and I lost all the comments I was writing. 

  106. YHOO Buy-Out Rumors :


  107. craigsa620

    The base on any leap tree planting  play is to try to  get the BCS for nothing. At present you spend say 10.50. By selling the appropriate leap putter you reduce the cost to half or more. This play you set aside. Let it develop. To keep you from boredom you now sell 1/2 of the options of your BCS on a monthly bases (costing you no extra margin) hoping most of the monthly caller will run worthless. Sometimes you pay the piper and you have to roll or even sell an other put to keep the rolling cost down to  a minimum. Working it well you work your 10.50 down to zero. Hope this helps always ask.

  108. yodi, which callers are you looking at on AAPL for a 1/2 sale?


  109. Arrgh!  Lost all my comments.  

    Very quick summary is:

    DLR/Jcrist – It was a successful trade.  Let it go, find a fresh horse.  

    Social Media/Albo – FB is ridiculously priced, DIS isn't.  How is that an "accomplishment"?  Market cap is only a reflection of what buyers at an auction will pay at the moment.  If you had $150Bn, would you buy DIS, it's brands, hotels, theme parks, cruise lines. comic book publishing, movie studios and TV stations (and TV production) with $45Bn in revenues and $7Bn in profit or would you buy FB, with a web program and $2.5Bn in revenues and $600M in profit?   

    Small/Spank – That is definitely the way to go.  

    FB/JMD – Ridiculous pricing.  I'd do a backspread, selling 5 Aug $75s for $1.75 ($875) and buying 4 March $75/80 bull call spreads to cover for $2 ($800) and get the $75 credit plus whatever is left on the spread.  

  110. pwright72

    The word is patience. Let us see how AAPL sattles first than we possible will look at a 100 caller  to start but this is still much to early.

  111. On GILD, think they beat so I'd go with the 2016 $80/100 bull call spread at $9.50 (same as AAPL) and sell the $70 puts for $5 for net $4.50 on the $20 spread. 

    For CAKE, I'd buy the Jan $42/46 bull call spread for $2 and sell the $40 puts for $1.35 for net .65 on the $4 spread.  

    On QCOM I'd just sell the 2016 $70 puts for $4 and see how that goes. 

  112. Selling Calls – My mantra is NUN until the RUN is DUN

  113. yodi and rj re: calls, makes sense, thanks.

  114. When you sell a near-dated call against a longer-dated bull call spread, is that considered a naked call by the broker?

  115. Yodi/tree planting

    can you expand on selling 1/2 of BCS monthly and weekly? Would like to know the strategy as well.

    Thank you

  116. Closing losers, holding winners… some are easier to do than others!

  117. FB and GILD yessss

  118. YHOO/JPH – Any time they dip now, arb guys will step in and buy.

    AAPL/Hex, Craigs – Yes, be PATIENT!!! Either the price goes where you want or you select another strike once it proves a better base but also, as Yodi says, playing +/- 5% is not a big deal with a long-term trade like this.  

    FCX/Wombat – Worth considering with copper at $3.20 but they already popped, remind me if they drop.  

    EDZ/Jeff – It's just very thinly traded but what matters is whether you want to be long EDZ or not, not the price of the option.  If it makes you feel better, offer to DD at $1 and I bet it doesn't fill and suddenly the bid will be $1 on EDZ and then you can offer $1.50 and make 50% on paper while you wait for reality to set in.   Meanwhile, I guess you didn't go with either of my ideas to leave the short $42s naked (cashing out your longs) or moving into a spread (which would have drastically lowered your loss) but you can still sell $25 puts for $2 to pay for most of the longs.  

  119. rookie I can  only tell you what I do. The basic problem today is the market is to my view a bit out of control. To high for my liking therefore to find good plays are not that easy. However I never enter as many play as Phil does but I do have many more plays than is needed. Say if you set up 4x or 6x a leap BCS ( mostly stocks with no or little div.) you can sell say 2x or 3x the current monthly callers against it without paying any extra margin. 

  120. did fb announce already? stock jumping around with vol comparable to before close.

    • Dow -0.14% to 17,089.13. S&P +0.19% to 1,987.27. Nasdaq +0.40% to 4,473.70.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.09%. 10-yr 0%. 5-yr +0.03%.
    • Commodities: Crude +0.59% to $102.99. Gold -0.05% to $1,305.70.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.03% vs. dollar. Yen +0.06%. Pound +0.15%.
    • Angie's List (NASDAQ:ANGI): Q2 EPS of -$0.31 misses by $0.07.
    • Revenue of $78.9M (+33.2% Y/Y) misses by $1.29M.
    • Shares -9.54% AH.
    • Press Release
    • Facebook (NASDAQ:FB): Q2 EPS of $0.42 beats by $0.10.
    • Revenue of $2.91B (+60.8% Y/Y) beats by $110M.
    • Press Release
    • Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD): Q2 EPS of $2.36 beats by $0.56.
    • Revenue of $6.54B (+136.1% Y/Y) beats by $680M.
    • Press Release
    • Hercules Offshore (HERO -5.8%) takes a beating after reporting a surprise Q2 loss of $0.04/share, trailing analyst expectations of a $0.02 profit, hurt by a slowdown in drilling activity and the transfer of properties in the Gulf of Mexico.
    • HERO expects Q3 results will remain impacted by current operational challenges but conditions should improve toward year end; meanwhile, the lease rate for its fleet of rigs remains solid for its Gulf assets, and relatively stable crude oil prices are supporting the company's bottom line.
    • Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM): FQ3 EPS of $1.44 beats by $0.22.
    • Revenue of $6.81B (+9% Y/Y) beats by $290M.
    • 225M MSM chip shipments, +31% Y/Y and above guidance of 198M-213M.
    • Expects FQ4 revenue of $6.5B-$7.4B and EPS of $1.20-$1.35 vs. a consensus of $7.15B and $1.39. Expects 230M-245M FQ4 MSM chip shipments.
    • Shares -0.7% AH.
    • Press Release
    • Skechers (NYSE:SKX): Q2 EPS of $0.68 beats by $0.28.
    • Revenue of $587.1M (+37.1% Y/Y) beats by $78.28M.
    • Shares +7.44% AH.
    • Press Release
    • AT&T (NYSE:T): Q2 EPS of $0.62 misses by $0.01.
    • Revenue of $32.57B (+1.5% Y/Y) misses by $840M.
    • Shares -1.3%.
    • Press Release
    • Freeport McMoRan (FCX -0.1%) plans to sell $4B-$5B more in onshore assets to help reduce debt and pay for "hundreds of millions of dollars" of investments in the Gulf of Mexico, Vice Chairman Jim Flores said during today's earnings call.
    • FCX sees potential for faster growth and better returns by refocusing its oil and gas portfolio in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, and will look to sell assets with less potential for growth, CEO Richard Adkerson says (Q2 earnings).
    • FCX's debt has ballooned from $3.5B to more than $20B after it bought two oil and gas companies last year, and it is facing lower copper prices than when it announced the purchases; export curbs that restricted output from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia also has hurt earnings this year.
    • "Yum China (YUM +0.1%) has decided to immediately terminate all procurement from OSI China," says the company in a statement which notes OSI is not a major supplier to its Chinese division. "It is difficult to believe and completely unacceptable that the management of Shanghai Husi, a division of OSI, would oversee and organize illegal and dishonest operations."
    • Shanghai police earlier detained five people connected to the factory at the center of this new food safety scandal, including the head of Shanghai Husi and its quality manager.
    • Previously: Yum, McDonald's ensnared in another China food safety scandal

  121. Started to build a position in Montise plc (MONIF) @ $.753

    Monitise plc, a technology and services company, provides mobile banking, payments, and commerce solutions for financial institutions, payments companies, retailers, mobile network operators, and other service providers in the United Kingdom, the United States, India, and the Asia Pacific. 

    Stock is down almost 40% from the first of May on lower results. Company is not profitable. Last year the company did 156 million in revenues.  They have an enormous number of shares outstanding. No doubt a reverse awaits at some point, but hoping for a nice move before that happens.

    Leon Cooperman owns 11.4% of the stock and mentioned a few weeks ago that he liked it as a speculative play.  VISA and VISA Europe own over 11% as well. 

    On Monday, they announced an alliance with IBM.

  122. Selling calls/Griffin – Yes, it's considered a naked call in a non-pm account.  In a PM account, you get credit for your spread against the short calls.  


    and FWIW –  Doug Kass, in late April when the stock was selling over $1 said that he thought it was a five bagger.

    Doesn't mean these guys are right, but once again, I like the odds.

  124. Albo – Looks like no breakout for QCOM AH! Maybe another chance to get in cheaper.

  125. If you played GILD and SKX bullish as posted with today's earnings, it seems that 1 out of 2 will pay off nicely (SKX) while the other one is going nowhere (GILD).

    I should really track the results of EW ratings on these earnings…

  126. Phil/EDZ

    I'm comfortable being long a this point, and I thought I did  go with one of your ideas. I was just trying to understand why the wide bid/ask and the difference in price among the the surrounding strikes.  Thinly traded is what I was looking for I suppose.

    To clarify I had October 35/42 BCS, then bought back the October 35's and spent $1.50 more to purchase the Jan 35's and left the October 42's as is. So now I have long Jan 35's and short October 42's which hopefully expire worhtless at which point I'd sell Jan somethings to cover the long 35's. 

    Just to be sure, did I misunderstand your earlier comments when I last asked for help with this trade below? I want to make sure I'm learning this correctly and not making mistakes EVEN when you tell me exactly what to do!! Thanks again for your help.

    "EDZ – EDZ/Jeff – Don't look at it that way. The Oct $35s are still $1.55, so more than you paid for the spread. You can recover that cash by selling those calls and that leaves you with naked short $42 calls that are 40% out of the money. You can cover them with a Jan bull call spread (the $30/38 bull call spread is about $2) or simply buy long calls by investing, for example $1.50 more to pick up the Jan $35 calls ($3). That would still leave you with a $7 spread and more time and, when the premium on the Oct calls is gone, you can still sell Jan calls and turn that spread into a vertical."

  127. MONIF/albo – interesting.. thanks!

  128. StJ / NoWhere
    Well, many had said that the Solvadi base was already built in. However that doesn't include all the recent upgrades and trial wins.

  129. skx/stjeanluc – I did sell puts on this stock today.  I'll most likely cover tomorrow.  Thanks for those EW numbers.

  130. Hmmm…

    States with higher minimum wages saw faster job growth in the first six months of 2014 than states that have not raised their wages, according to an analysis by the Associated Press.

    In the 13 states that have raised their minimum wage at the beginning of the year, jobs grew by 0.85 percent on average. In the 37 states in which the minimum wage remained unchanged jobs grew by 0.61 percent on average, according to state-by-state job growth data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

  131. You are welcome tshroyer!

    Once again, I don't have a track record on these numbers so don't make big bets! Just play money on these earnings trade.

  132. Speaking of earnings, tomorrow should be fun again with AMZN, BIDU, P, SBUX and V!

  133. GILD / Wombat – On the other hand, GILD almost up 100% in 1 year so it's not like it's been standing still…

  134. I would be hard pressed to see a correlation between pay and performance in this chart:

    An analysis of compensation data publicly released by Equilar shows little correlation between CEO pay and company performance. Equilar ranked the salaries of 200 highly paid CEOs. When compared to metrics such as revenue, profitability, and stock return, the scattering of data looks pretty random, as though performance doesn’t matter. The comparison makes it look as if there is zero relationship between pay and performance.

    Check the comparison of the ranking of the 200 CEOs Equilar looked at to their company’s stock returns, as seen on the chart below. The trend line—the average of how much a CEO’s ranking is affected by stock performance—shows that a CEO’s income ranking is only 1 percent based on the company’s stock return. That means that 99 percent of the ranking has nothing to do with performance at all. (The size and profitability of companies didn’t affect the random patterns.)

  135. QCOM – Back to the drawing board. !

  136. Scottmi – You're welcome.  I've never had an original thought in my life.  But I've found borrowing from really smart people usually works.

  137. Money Flows: Selling on Strength 
    SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) = $-842.12 (million)

    Cobra states that the SPY block sell today is unusually high and if this is not just a data error, then we can expect a huge down day.

    (My observation: If not a data error, then big boys also protecting some AAPL profits.)

  138. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 10:08:08 PM

    Asian stocks rose for a fourth day,
    with the regional benchmark index extending a six-year high,
    after a Chinese manufacturing gauge rose to its strongest
    reading in 18 months.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  139. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 10:20:25 PM

    REITs will be allowed to invest as much as 10 percent of their gross asset value in property development or redevelopment, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission said in a statement posted on its website July 22. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg

    A change to Hong Kong’s real estate
    investment trust rule may free HK$34 billion ($4.4 billion) for
    property development and rebuilding, according to Victor Yeung,
    who runs Admiral Investment Ltd. that invests in REITs.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  140. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 10:05:47 PM

    July 24 (Bloomberg) — Tomo Kinoshita, chief economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Tokyo, talks about Japan’s economy, central bank policy and currency.
    Japan’s trade deficit was larger than forecast after exports unexpectedly fell, dragging on an economy squeezed by a sales-tax increase in April. Kinoshita speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Japan’s exports unexpectedly fell in June to swell the trade deficit more than forecast, dragging on an economy squeezed by a sales-tax increase in April.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  141. Watch this video at

    How Does Bitcoin Mining Work?

    July 24 (Bloomberg) –- Bitcoin mining is the complicated process through which new bitcoins are made. So how does it work? Bloomberg and Switch-Video explain. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  142. Watch this video at

    Why Facebook’s User Engagement Is So Impressive

    July 23: The Social Internet Fund Founder Lou Kerner discusses Facebook’s earnings, user engagement and how it can get more people to produce user-generated content.

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  143. Watch this video at

    This Car-Parking Robot Puts Valets on the Street

    July 24 (Bloomberg) –- Finding a parking space can be very stressful. Now a German company is making this a problem of the past. A robotic system named Ray can now park and retrieve your car. Serva Transport Systems Chief Technology Officer Leopold Meirer explains how it works. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  144. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 11:32:14 PM

    July 24 (Bloomberg) — Grace Ng, senior China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong, talks about the world’s second-largest economy.
    A Chinese manufacturing gauge rose to an 18-month high in July, bolstering the government’s chances of meeting its 2014 economic-growth target of about 7.5 percent. Ng speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    A Chinese manufacturing gauge rose to an 18-month high in July, bolstering the government’s chances of meeting its 2014 economic-growth target of about 7.5 percent.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  145. Watch this video at

    Facebook’s Revenue Surge Silences Skeptics

    July 23: Bloomberg’s Jon Erlichman reports on Facebook earnings.

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  146. Watch this video at

    Five of the World’s Most Unusual Starbucks Stores

    July 24 (Bloomberg) –- Starbucks has well over 20,000 stores worldwide, and most of those stores follow the same cookie-cutter design, but in a handful of cases, the company has taken pains to make a location stand out. Here’s a look at five Starbucks stores that are truly unusual. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  147. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 12:24:13 PM

    The Federal Reserve may have scope to keep interest rates at zero for longer than investors anticipate as inflation stays muted and a 2014 slowdown prolongs the labor-market recovery, the International Monetary Fund said.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  148. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 11:41:35 PM

    July 16 (Bloomberg) — Ding Shuang, senior China economist with Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong, talks about the world’s second-largest economy and government policies.
    China’s economic growth accelerated for the first time in three quarters after the government expedited spending and gave banks more room to lend to counter a property slump. Ding speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Most of China’s provinces said their economies accelerated in the second quarter, suggesting local leaders are sharpening their focus on growth.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  149. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 6:01:00 PM

    Shenzhen’s tallest building, the KK100 skyscraper, left, towers at over 400m above residential and commercial buildings in the Luohu district of Shenzhen, China. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    The eastern Chinese city of Suzhou
    isn’t even the biggest in Jiangsu province, yet it’s joining a
    national rush for the sky with what’s slated to become the
    world’s third-tallest building.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  150. Watch this video at

    EU Leaders Weigh Options on Adding Russia Sanctions

    July 22 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Ryan Chilcote reports on a meeting of European Union leaders as they contemplate their options for imposing further sanctions against Russia and updates the latest on the search for answers in the downing of flight MH17. He speaks on “In the Loop.”

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  151. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 2:17:23 PM

    Tourists take pictures outside the Dome of the Rock in the al-Aqsa mosque compound, in Jerusalem. Tourism accounts for 7.3 percent of Israel’s economy and employs nearly 1 in 13 of the workforce, the World Travel & Tourism Council says. Photographer: Thomas Coex/AFP via Getty Images

    Omer Benjoya took a job this summer selling drinks, snacks and postcards on a hill that offers one of the most breathtaking panoramic views of Jerusalem.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  152. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 10:24:36 AM

    European Union regulators proposed a
    deeper energy-efficiency target as they pair a fight against
    climate change with a push to reduce reliance on Russian
    supplies amid the Ukraine crisis.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  153. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 1:50:28 PM

    Geopolitical tool.

    Why can’t Europe’s leaders bring themselves to impose tough sanctions on Russia after the Malaysia Airlines passenger jet disaster? One explanation is that economic ties to Russia, a major supplier of energy, trump the moral imperative to punish President Vladimir Putin for his support of separatists in Ukraine.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  154. From Bloomberg, Jul 23, 2014, 12:23:58 PM

    Will you be able to afford a sunny retirement?

    So you’re ready to retire but don’t have a cushion of money in your 401(k) account. What went wrong? Maybe you didn’t contribute enough, if you participated at all. Or maybe you tapped into those funds prematurely. Or you failed miserably as a do-it-yourself investor and forgot that markets go down as well as up.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  155. Early bird Tree play, as discussed yesterday during the AAPL comments.

    AMSL buy Jan16 BCS for 7.40 and sell the Jan16 80p at 7.60 monthly call selling to follow.

     ASML has a solid presence in semiconductor capital equipment, Dutch based company. Do your own home work before setting up any trades!!! 

  156. On ASML the BCS should be Jan16 75/87.5 @ 7.40 start with 4 or 5x

  157. Russell jumped over it's 200 DMA!

  158. For the most part, better than expected PMI numbers in China and Europe:

  159. Good morning!

    Futures were down 0.2% but now up 0.2% on a huge move around 4am but I can't see what triggered it.  I guess I'd say Chinese PMI, which went to 52 from 50.4 in June, if I had to pick one thing but that's a pretty shaky thing to base a rally on (though any premise is a good premise these days).  

    As noted by StJ's chart above, Europe bumped up as well but these are all preliminary readings and, as usual, PMI is an opinion poll of people who are caught up in the same Euphoria as investors are, so it's just a feedback loop to the market, not a reliable leading indicator.  Notice last Sept we had one up month, followed by 9 of 10 down months after that (not that any of that stopped the rally either). 

    Nonetheless, Europe is pleased and up everywhere but UK with Dax up 0.5%, France up 0.8%, Italy up 1.5% and Spain up 1.6%.  

    Also, another plane has gone missing – that seems to always be good for a rally as well.  blush

    Air Algerie

    Let's fact it, "THEY" are going for 2,000 on the S&P and there's probably nothing that is going to stop them…

    Japanese Exports Tumble For 2nd Month In A Row, Worst Since Abenomics Began

    Japan July flash manufacturing PMI falls to 50.8 from final 51.5 in June. Japanese manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in July than in the previous month, a preliminary survey showed on Thursday, as companies continued to adjust to fluctuations in demand after a sales tax increase in April. The Markit/JMMA flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 50.8 in July from a final reading of 51.5 in June.

    Kerry’s Gaza Truce Bid Undercut by Rifts in RegionAs U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry labors to end the violence in Gaza and Israel, he’s confronting hostility and suspicion among Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, whose rival agendas and diplomatic jockeying bring new difficulty to the negotiations. The top U.S. diplomat hurriedly departed for the Middle East this week with his customary eagerness to tackle complex international issues. “We’ve got to get over there,” Kerry told an aide in a phone call picked by Fox News microphones as he made the rounds of Sunday talk shows. “It’s crazy to be sitting around.” 

    U.S. Weighs New Russia Sanctions as Putin IsolatedThe U.S. is debating a new round of sanctions on Russia and pressing the European Union to follow up with its own penalties, Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government is increasingly isolated for his support of the separatists in Ukraine, Rhodes told reporters at the White House today. “It has badly backfired on them because it’s earning him complete international isolation and condemnation,” Rhodes said. He gave no timetable for U.S. action.

    Tragedy Fails to Quiet UkraineTwo Fighter Jets Shot Down Over Separatist Territory as Kiev Presses Offensive. Two Ukrainian fighter jets were shot down Wednesday over separatist-held territory not far from the site of the Malaysia Airlines crash as international outrage over the tragedy has done little to slow the fierce fighting in eastern Ukraine.

    Stalled recovery leaves Europe defenceless against economic shock from RussiaStagnation is automatically causing debt ratios to spiral upwards yet again across a large part of the currency bloc.

    Record Student-Loan Debt Prompts Treasury Push to Stem DefaultsThe U.S. Treasury, which finances more than 90 percent of new student loans, is exploring ways to make repayment more affordable as defaults by almost 7 million Americans and other strapped borrowers restrain economic growth. Leading the effort is Deputy Secretary Sarah Bloom Raskin, who became the department’s No. 2 official in March after more than three years as a Federal Reserve governor. As higher-education debt swells to a record $1.2 trillion, Raskin, 53, is alert to parallels to the mortgage crisis.

    High-Yield Bonds "Extremely Overvalued" For Longest Period Ever

    S&P faces fraud charges over mortgage ratingsStandard & Poor's may face securities fraud charges for ratings given to six commercial mortgage-backed securities issued in 2011, the credit rating company said.

    Financial markets are playing down risks: GeithnerFORMER US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has warned investors that financial markets are underpricing risks but he defended vigorously the Obama administration’s record of huge deficit spending and ­unprecedented money creation.

    Calpers Pulls Back From Hedge FundsCalifornia Pension Fund to Cut Investments by 40%.Public pensions from California to Ohio are backing away from hedge funds because of concerns about high fees and lackluster returns

    Chart Of The Day: For Caterpillar The "Great Recovery" Is Just As Bad As The Great Financial Crisis

    What inflation???  Mars, maker of M&M's, to raise prices 7%. Mars Chocolate North America, the maker of M&M's and Snickers, said on Wednesday that it will raise its prices by an average of 7 percent "to offset rising costs," its first increase in three years.

    Senator Sounds Alarm Over 'Excruciating' Virus Spreading In US


    As Queen says "Nothing really matters, any way the wind blows…"

    • A 7% premarket pop for Facebook following Q2 results last night is pacing Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ) futures to a 0.35% gain. S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) futures are ahead 0.25%, and DJIA (NYSEARCA:DIA) futures 0.2%.
    • Ford is ahead 1% after releasing its Q2 results earlier this morning.
    • Europe's Stoxx 50 is up 1%, and a 1.3% gain in Shanghai led Asia higher overnight.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up two basis points to 2.49% and gold is lower by $5 per ounce to $1,302.

    Ford gains 1% after bottom-line beat

    • North America Wholesales of 760K vs. 802K a year ago, with revenue of $21.2B vs. $21.8B. Operating margin of 11.6% up 100 basis points from a year ago. Pre-tax income of $2.44B vs. $2.32B a year ago. Market share dipped 1.2 points to 15.3%. For FY14, Ford (NYSE:F) expects pre-tax profit to be lower than 2013 and operating margin in the 8-9% range.
    • South America Wholesales of 114K vs. 147K a year ago, with pre-tax loss of $295M vs. a profit of $151M a year ago. Ford now expects a larger loss in South America than what it previously guided for.
    • Europe Wholesales of 376K vs. 377K a year ago, with pre-tax profit of $14M vs. a loss of $306M. Full-year guidance is unchanged.
    • Asia-Pacific Wholesales of 362K vs. 300K a year ago, with pre-tax income of $159M vs. $130M. Wholesale volume in China gained 26% Y/Y. Company expects full-year profit in 2014 to be higher than a year previous.
    • Conference calls at 8:30 and 11:30 ET can be heard here.
    • Previously: Ford Motor beats by $0.03, misses on revenue
    • Shares +1% premarket

    Qualcomm(QCOM) struggles to collect royalties in China, stock fallsQualcomm Inc's outlook for the September quarter was below Wall Street's expectations and its shares fell on Wednesday after the leading mobile chipmaker said it was having trouble collecting royalties in China. ?

    F5 Networks(FFIV) third-quarter revenue rises 19 pct

    Where Facebook's(FB) Second Quarter User Growth And Revenue Generation Was In Charts

  160. EDZ/Jeff – My bad for not being more clear as my possible moves I listed for you were in order of preference, with extending the time-frame a distant 3rd vs. cashing in and leaving the naked short $42s.  I never know if people want to use margin or not so sometimes I run through various ways to roll a play depending on how much margin you want to use.  I wasn't clear about that and I'm sorry.   At the moment, the combination of the low VIX and the terrible performance of EDZ are killing the longs but 6 months is a very long time.  As I said, you can sell the $25 puts for over $2 and that gets most of your money off the table and, as planned, in Oct you'll be able to pick up the other $1 with a Jan sale – unless EDZ is going to be down more than 50% for the year – which is something it did manage to do in 2012 – though it did recover 50% the next year (and now is down 50% from that).  

    Minimum wage/StJ – Wow, call Captain Obvious on that one!  You and I should be consulted on these matters in the future, we were both advocating that position from the beginning.  

    Speaking of earnings, FB with a big up move.  Looks like $77.50 in pre-market!

    QCOM a little off but nothing terrible.  GILD kind of flat.  

    Pay-Performance/StJ – Well, if anything it doesn't stop CEOs from demanding big salaries because there's no proof it doesn't work either.  

    LOL Albo!  On the shoulders of giants…

    Oops, time to work!