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Technical Tuesday – Weak Bounce Sucks in the Suckers Once Again

Screen Shot 2014-08-04 at 8.59.13 AMWhen will they ever learn? 

Actually it's a rule of thumb at PSW that dip buyers need to get burned 3 times before they wise up to a proper correction, so they still have at least another try in them before they finally walk away from this crazy market.  As you can see from Oppenheimer's S&P chart, 56% of the S&P has plunged back below their 50 dma in the past 30 days.

This is EXACTLY what I've been warning you about.  At the same time the indexes LOOKED like they were rallying, MOST stocks were actually being dumped while a few (AAPL, for expample) were kept aloft to maintain the ILLUSION that the market was still strong.  That's how they keep the retail buyers moving in while the institutional investors head for the hills.  Yesterday's action was nothing but another low-volume bounce – the kind we teach our Members to ignore:

AlphaCapture

Short-term, we're certainly oversold but we'll be very critical of a low-volume recovery until we see those 50 dmas retaken on the indexes.  Those are way up at 16,877 on the Dow, 1,954 on the S&P, 4,368 on the Nasdaq, 10,912 on the NYSE and 1,160 on the Russell.  Anything less than that and there's nothing to be particularly bullish about. 

That doesn't stop us, of course, from picking individual short-term longs.  On Wednesday, for example, I was on TV on Money Talk and we featured this play on GTAT as my "Options Play of the Month."  Last night, GTAT knocked it out of the park on earnings and the stock shot up over 10% to $15+ already in pre-market trading.  That will put us well on track to the full $14,000 return on this spread and a 1,650% gain on cash ($13,200 profit on the $800 we invested)!  Not bad for a few day's work, right?  

By the way, if you never want to miss trade ideas like GTAT again – sign up right here for Membership and you will be among the first to hear about our new trade ideas every day!

We're still running our SQQQ hedge as we didn't think yesterday's little bounce warranted a change of plans.  Our Member Portfolios remain very well-balanced with our Short-Term Portfolio holding a 31.6% gain at yesterday's close while our Long-Term Portfolio is hanging on to 17.7% at the moment.  The LTP is $500K (now $588K) and the STP is $100K (now $131K) and, as long as they net out around $710,000 (now $719K), we're comfortable enough riding out this market chop. 

We have a Live Trading Webinar today at 1pm (EST), where we'll be looking over our Short-Term Portfolio and determining whether or not we should change course for the week.  

Looking at our Big Chart (thanks StJ!), we see 4 Spitting Cobra patterns that have already resolved to the downside with only the Nasdaq holding onto it's 50 dma at 4,368.  That's why we're shorting the Nasdaq with SQQQ – it's the "laggard" with the farthest left to fall if they all go to Hell.

If not, we'll be looking for strong bounces and the Russell as noted yesterday, has very neatly made a 7.5% drop so we'll be watching that 1,110 line with great interest and a weak bounce off there is 20 points (rounding 18) to 1,130 and a strong bounce would neet to take back 1,150 and that STILL would not get them to the 50 dma at 1,160 – so a lot of work for the Russell to do if we're going to recover.  

That's why we picked up a small TNA hedge yesterday in our Live Member Chat Room, an adjustment of the play that failed to trigger on 7/22 (because the RUT couldn't hold 1,150) and our new trade needs the Russell to hold that 1,110 line – boy have we lowered our expectations quickly!  Meanwhile, we're looking for bounce lines on our indexes at:

  • Dow 17,100 to 16,500 is 600 points so 120-point weak bounce to 16,620 and a strong bounce would be 16,740
  • S&P 1,990 to 1,920 is 70 points so 15-point bounces (rounding) to 1,925 (weak) and 1,940 (strong)
  • Nasdaq 4,475 to 4,350 is 125 points so 25-point bounces to 4,375 (weak) and 4,400 (strong)
  • NYSE 11,050 to 10,650 is 400 points so 80-point bounces to 10,730 (weak) and 10,810 (strong)
  • Russell 1,200 to 1,110 is 90 points so 20-point bounces (rounding) to 1,130 (weak) and 1,150 (strong)

Those are the levels we'll be watching this week and the longer it takes to get there – the less impressed we'll be.  We're also keeping our eye on oil at $98.50 but, as I said to our Members early this morning – I'm far more inclined to short it at this level (/CL Futures).  

 


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  1. GTAT/ Good pick Phil. However, I humbly suggest we do not get ahead of ourselves on popping open the champagne on a 2016 position, lest we succumb to the title of today's post. A sip yes, but keep it on ice until January 2016 comes around. There will be many reasons to be cheerful then.


  2. Oil Lines

    R3 – 100.12
    R2 – 99.40
    R1 – 98.88
    PP – 98.15
    S1 – 97.64
    S2 – 96.92
    S3 – 96.40


  3. Good morning!

    A guy was just on Bloomberg saying the "problem" is that the Government is catching less children (immigrants).   I wonder if we can get a GOP Rep to sponsor a bill where we have candy and ice cream trucks roaming suspect neighborhoods with a little jail in the back to capture more children?   That would be funny – all it would take is a $5,000 donation and we'll say we're the company that makes the trucks…

    GTAT/Winston – I'm happy once we get earnings that confirm our outlook and the stock is on track enough to just ignore it in the LTP unless there is a drastic reversal.  To me, there's great value in a position I don't have to watch every day.  


  4. From Bloomberg, Aug 4, 2014, 6:03:21 PM

    Not guaranteed to protect against financial contagion.

    Asia is still traumatized by the great financial crisis of 1997, when Thailand’s devaluation of the baht set off a region-wide collapse in markets. Could it happen here again?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1tPs1e2

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  5. I know Phil already put it in the post, but it couldn't hurt for me to post the link again…

    LIVE Webinar today! 1pm Eastern! 

    http://bit.ly/PSWWebinar080514


  6. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 8:29:53 AM

    Have times really changed … and shouldn’t they?

    The Official Blog Spouse was on Melissa Harris-Perry’s show this weekend to talk about a variety of topics, including the recent decision by the National Labor Relations Board that McDonald’s Corp. is a joint employer with its franchise owners, and it can therefore be jointly charged in labor disputes. As I noted last week, this potentially opens the door to unionizing fast-food franchises, which would be a major change in labor law and the franchise market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1s7UDih

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  7. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    The iPhone maker is up 25 percent since it spent $18 billion on its own shares between January and March and rallied 32 percent after a $16 billion buyback in 2013. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

    With Apple Inc.’s repurchases staking a claim as the most profitable on record, buybacks remain one of America’s most popular antidotes to bears.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qP32Tm

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  8. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 7:14:57 AM


    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — Israeli Tourism Minister Uzi Landau discusses the Hamas conflict and its impact on foreign visitors.
    He talks from Tel Aviv with Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Israel pulled its remaining troops out of the Gaza Strip after completing a campaign to destroy tunnels used by militants to stage attacks, bolstering a 72-hour truce that took effect early today.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1o86ICq

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  9. Phil- I believe you just took an idea first seen in the old children's movie, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, where the villain was a child catcher who had a candy truck that was actually a mobile jail just like you described. I wonder if the Republicans use this film for training?


  10. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 6:58:45 AM


    July 30 (Bloomberg) — Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, talks about U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia and the conflict in Gaza.
    Bremmer speaks with Tom Keene, Adam Johnson and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Ukraine expressed alarm about a new
    buildup of Russian forces on its border as it pursued an
    offensive against pro-Moscow separatists. Half the residents of
    the city of Luhansk fled as the fighting got closer.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1or8ltx

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  11. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 8:22:32 AM

    As a rally in the euro-area’s higher-yielding government bonds shows signs of cooling, Goldman Sachs
    Group Inc. joined investors saying the narrowing of yield
    spreads to German bunds is over.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kC05Yv

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  12. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 12:00:00 AM

    The U.S. Treasury said its borrowing
    needs this quarter fell to the lowest level for the period since
    2007 as a stronger economy boosts tax revenue.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1o81hmI

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  13. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 8:39:38 AM

    Target Corp. (TGT), the U.S. discount
    retailer that chose a new chief executive officer last week,
    said second-quarter profit trailed its forecast, in part because
    of costs to recover from last year’s data breach.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1p7nT6h

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  14. From Bloomberg, Aug 3, 2014, 1:00:00 PM


    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg Businessweek’s Sam Grobart and Bloomberg’s Cory Johnson and Jon Erlichman report on Samsung’s marketing prowess. They speak on “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Nokia Oyj has found the easiest way to win the smartphone industry’s game of thrones is to quit playing altogether.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ucPsvl

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  15. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1xX35ip

    Will the Fed React to a Better U.S. Economy?

    Aug 4. (Bloomberg) — Columbia Business School Professor Charles Calomiris examines the Federal Reserve and the politics of Janet Yellen. He speaks with Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  16. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1qN0J31

    Why Did Apple Develop Its Own CDN?

    Aug. 4 –- Frost and Sullivan Principal Analyst Dan Rayburn discusses how a content delivery network will help boost Apple’s business. He speaks on “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  17. From Bloomberg, Aug 4, 2014, 10:52:28 PM


    Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) — Gregory Haertl, a spokesman for the World Health Organization, discusses efforts to contain the ebola outbreak in West Africa which has infected at least 1,440 people since March.
    He speaks from Geneva with Caroline Hyde and Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    A tiny San Diego-based company provided an experimental Ebola treatment for two Americans infected with the deadly virus in Liberia. The biotechnology drug, produced with tobacco plants, appears to be working.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1o7UTfw

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  18. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 12:01:00 AM


    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — The development of shale gas in the U.S. has reduced its imports from Africa, leaving its trade with the continent concentrated in countries such as Nigeria, Angola and South Africa, according to Ayo Salami, chief investment officer at Duet Asset Management Ltd.
    He speaks with Mark Barton, Caroline Hyde and Manus Cranny on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Ford Motor Co. (F) plans to expand its manufacturing plants in Africa, where the automaker is introducing models like the Mustang sports car and forecasts industrywide sales will grow 40 percent by 2020.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pUFr1V

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  19. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 7:05:54 AM


    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — Edward Teather, a Singapore-based senior economist at UBS AG, talks about India’s economy and central bank policy.
    The Reserve Bank of India’s repurchase rate will be held at 8 percent today, according to a Bloomberg survey. Teather speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    About thirty miles from New Delhi, a stray dog walks among sacks of wheat rotting in a field. The grain is part of more than 3 million tons that India stores in the open exposed to pests and damp, enough to feed Kenya.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pUFhrg

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  20. From Bloomberg, Aug 4, 2014, 10:13:42 PM


    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — Kiran Ganesh, cross asset strategist at UBS Wealth Management, discusses whether or not equities will be able to ignore growing geopolitical risks and how European gas supplies may impact sanctions on Russia. He speaks with Jonathan Ferro on “On The Move.”

    The Shanghai Composite Index will probably end its world-beating rally within days and fall about 10 percent, said Tom DeMark, the developer of market-timing indicators who predicted the gauge’s peak last year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1p5W2Dv

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  21. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 3:45:33 AM

    China bought 10,000 metric tons of
    rare earths in the last week, said two people familiar with the
    matter, as the country stockpiles the metals used in batteries
    and magnets amid international pressure to ease export quotas.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kC5Cyb

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  22. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 2:38:02 AM

    Commuters walk along a street in Tokyo, Japan. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

    Where the world’s biggest pension fund goes, half a trillion dollars is set to follow.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pUFrib

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  23. From Bloomberg, Aug 4, 2014, 11:03:11 PM

    Bank of Japan officials are concerned
    about increasing signs of weakness in the economy following a
    sales-tax increase, according to people familiar with the
    central bank’s discussions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zPc208

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  24. Himax +4.5% on second pre-earnings upgrade

    09:20 AM ET · HIMX

    • A day after Lake Street Capital upgraded Himax (NASDAQ:HIMX) to Buy ahead of its Thursday Q2 report, BofA/Merrill has provided a 2-notch upgrade to Buy.
    • Analyst Daniel Heyler calls Himax’s risk/reward more favorable following this year’s sharp correction, and expects strong growth from Himax’s core businesses (read: LCD driver ICs) in 2014 and 2015. His target has been raised by $0.60 to $7.60.
    • BofA issued a 2-notch downgrade to Underperform on March 25. Himax was at $12.81 at the time.


  25. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 4:00:00 AM


    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the German-based Ifo economic institute, discusses “longer-term implications” for the German economy from European sanctions against Russia.
    He speaks from Italy with Guy Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Euro-area services expanded less than
    initially estimated last month, keeping alive concerns about the
    outlook for the recovery in the 18-nation region.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kk1Adq

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  26. Goldman: Equities the place to be as Fed hikes

    09:16 AM ET · PLW

    • “We forecast a dramatic divergence between stock and bond returns during the next several years,” says David Kostin’s team at Goldman, predicting an annualized 6% return for the S&P 500 between now and 2018 vs. a 1% annualized gain for 10-year Treasurys.
    • Alongside that prediction is Kostin’s expectation for the Fed Funds rate to reach 4% by 2018.
    • Stocks typically perform well in the months leading to the first rate hike, meaning the next year (up to the point when most expect the Fed to move) should be a good one, says Kostin.
    • ETFs: PLW, GOVT, TAPR, VV, SCHX, FEX, JKD, EQL, IWL, EEH, ERW, FWDD, SYE


  27. Redbook Chain Store Sales

    09:03 AM ET · PBJ


  28. Doubts linger over Coach

    08:56 AM ET · COH

    • Coach (NYSE:COH) lost $134M in sales during Q2 compared to a year ago which is a mark that lines up neatly with the $168M Michael Kors increased its North American sales during the same period, notes retail analyst Rahul Sharma.
    • Hedgeye thinks the retailer’s reliance on its outlet channel is making it tough to turn around results.
    • During the firm’s earnings call, Coach execs were full of bravado over the future of the men’s business, but pushed back the target date for reaching $1B in sales per year until FY17.
    • Earnings call webcast
    • COH +3.9% premarket


  29. National Retail Properties boosts guidance

    08:40 AM ET · NNN

    • Q2 adjusted FFO of $62.7M or $0.51 per share vs. $57.4M and $0.47 a year ago. Dividend is $0.42.
    • Portfolio occupancy of 98.5% up 30 basis points Y/Y.
    • Invested $92M in 34 properties at initial cash yield of 7.5%. Sold 10 properties for $15M, booking $3.1M in gains on sales.
    • Full-year AFFO guidance is boosted to $2.05-$2.09 per share, partly the result of the company’s ability in H1 to raise funds at a cheap cost.
    • Conference call at 10:30 ET
    • NNN flat premarket
    • Previously: National Retail Properties FFO and revenue in-line


  30. Las Vegas casinos pace MGM Resorts in Q2

    08:34 AM ET · MGM

    • MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) reports revenue for its U.S.-based casinos rose 6% to $1.639B in Q2.
    • Growth by casino property: Bellagio +9.6% to $332.2M; MGM Grand Las Vegas +6.4% to $233.5M; Mandalay Bay +13.7% to $233.5M; The Mirage +3% to $146.7M; The Luxor +10% to $91M.
    • Revenue for MGM China fell 1% to $827M during the quarter.
    • Adjusted Property EBITDA +8% Y/Y to $643M.
    • MGM +2.5% premarket


  31. Cedar Fair misses by $0.31, misses on revenue

    08:26 AM ET · FUN

    • Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN): Q2 EPS of $0.79 misses by $0.31.
    • Revenue of $363.01M (+0.4% Y/Y) misses by $10.68M.
    • Press Release


  32. Marathon Oil profit jumps on strong production growth, higher U.S. prices

    08:24 AM ET · MRO

    • Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) +1.8% premarket after reporting better than expected Q2 earnings, driven by strong production growth and higher crude oil and condensate prices in the U.S.
    • Production available for sale from continuing operations, excluding Libya, rose 6% Y/Y to 383K boe/day, attributed to continued growth in North American shale production.
    • MRO expects the region to produce 235M-248M boe/day in Q3 vs. 200M boe/day in the year-ago quarter.
    • Three high-quality Eagle Ford plays averaged net production of 170K boe/day, up 29% Y/Y and on track for greater than 30% Y/Y production growth.
    • Income from North American exploration and production rose 37% to $302M on higher sales volume that offset a 16% increase in exploration expenses.
    • Recorded 98% average operational availability for Company-operated assets.


  33. Report: Sycamore Partners may bid for Sears Canada

    08:24 AM ET · SHLD

    • Sycamore Partners is interested in making a bid for Sears Canada (NASDAQ:SHLD), according to the New York Post.
    • Though Eddie Lampert started off with a deal target of $2B for the Canadian retain chain, Sycamore is likely to offer considerably less.
    • Sears also has the option to sell off the Sears Canada stores piecemeal to major retailers such as Canadian Tire, Hudson’s Bay, and Wal-Mart.


  34. NewLink gets $1M Ebola study contract

    08:14 AM ET · NLNK

    • The U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) issues a $1M letter contract to NewLink Genetics (NASDAQ:NLNK) subsidiary BioProtection Systems Corp. for studies supporting the advancement of an Ebola vaccine licensed from the Public Health Agency of Canada. The contract will fund the pre-clinical toxicology studies that will enable an IND application and also includes the manufacture of clinical materials.


  35. Coach higher after avoiding worst-case scenario

    08:04 AM ET · COH

    • Coach (NYSE:COH) reports sales in North America fell 16% to $691M in FQ4 on a 17% fall in comps.
    • International sales +7% to $414M during the period.
    • Gross profit rate -360 bps to 69.4%.
    • Inventory +0.4% to $526M.
    • COH +6.3% premarket as expectations for the luxury retailer were beat down dramatically.


  36. EPA asks judge to toss Pebble lawsuit

    07:59 AM ET · NAK

    • The EPA is asking a federal judge to dismiss as premature a lawsuit by the Northern Dynasty-led (NYSEMKT:NAK) group behind the proposed Pebble Mine.
    • In a court filing, EPA attorneys say the agency has not made a final determination yet on potential restrictions on development on the Pebble deposit.
    • The Pebble partnership sued EPA earlier this year, alleging the agency had exceeded its authority by invoking a process through which it could restrict or prohibit development of the Pebble deposit before the project has gone through permitting.


  37. Children / Phil – How about this guy:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/steven-palazzo-sends-bibles-to-every-hill-office

    Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-MS) enclosed the Bible in his letter dated July 29 and sent to all House and Senate offices. The letter, written on an official letterhead in his capacity as assistant majority whip, was confirmed by Capitol Hill aides whose offices received it.

    "On a daily basis, we contemplate policy decisions that impact America's future. Our staffs provide us with policy memos, statistics, and recommendations that help us make informed decisions. However, I find that the best advice comes through meditating on God's Word," Palazzo wrote.

    He needs to show me where in the Bible it says that the richest country in the world needs to send back little children to the hell where they came from so that we don't have to raise taxes on the top 1%. Just sickening how phony these guys are… 


  38. ICSC Retail Store Sales rise in the last week

    07:55 AM ET · PBJ


  39. Peabody raises Q3 guidance, Australian coal cutbacks

    07:49 AM ET · BTU

    • Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) raises its Q3 guidance after deciding to trim back its metallurgical coal production in Australia.
    • BTU now expects an adjusted Q3 loss of $0.36-$0.49 a share, better than its earlier forecast of a $0.40-$0.53 loss, and says it is reducing met coal output by ~1.5M tons/year from its Burton Mine in Queensland, Australia, as production levels from the mine are “not sustainable in the current market environment.”
    • BTU also expects to trim production levels to ~1M tons/year, cutting its annual average cost estimate for Australia to the low $70/ton range, as it plans to use reduced equipment fleets to target lower-cost reserves.


  40. Kurds petition U.S. court to let tanker enter Texas

    07:44 AM ET · USO

    • The tanker carrying 1M barrels of Kurdish crude oil is still situated in the Gulf of Mexico, as the dispute continues between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Iraqi Oil Ministry.
    • Last week, a U.S. District Court ruled that the tanker was outside of its jurisdiction, but it would be seized should it enter U.S. waters.
    • Baghdad has argued that all oil sales outside of its control are illegal, however, the Kurdistan Regional Government has asked the U.S. court to throw out the ruling.
    • Previously: Kurdish oil to be seized following order and arrest warrant
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI


  41. Daimler and Aston Martin deepen ties

    07:39 AM ET · DDAIF

    • Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF) says it will raise its stake in Aston Martin to 5%.
    • The German automaker will also supply the sport car maker with key parts under a component deal.
    • Daimler and Aston Martin are also working together on a Aston Martin SUV to sell by 2017.


  42. Moody’s cuts outlook on U.K. banking sector

    07:18 AM ET · LYG

    • Moody’s view of the sector is downgraded to “negative” from “stable,” suggesting ratings cuts could be in the offing. At issue are new rules designed to prevent the use of taxpayer funds to rescue struggling operators.
    • Also of note, says Moody’s analyst Carlos Suarez Duarte, is continued exposure to both conduct and litigation charges.”
    • Those with negative outlooks include: LYG, BCS, RBS, HSBC.


  43. Gannett to split into two companies

    07:03 AM ET · GCI

    • Gannett (NYSE:GCI) announces it will split into two separate companies following the purchase of Classified Ventures along with crown jewel Cars.com.
    • One company will includes the broadcasting and digital businesses, while the other will be the publishing business.
    • A conference call to discuss the details of the split will be held at 8:30 a.m. ET.
    • GCI +10.8% premarket


  44. GM Financial receives subpoena over subprime auto loans

    04:34 AM ET · GM

    • U.S. authorities are investigating General Motors’ (NYSE:GM) auto financing arm over subprime auto loans it made and securitized since 2007.
    • Financial services firms have paid billions of dollars to settle investigations under FIRREA (Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act) which probed mortgages pooled into securities in the run-up to the financial crisis, however, this new subpoena suggests that investigators are also looking at the securitization of subprime auto loans.
    • GM Financial says it was served the subpoena from the DOJ on July 28.


  45. Telefonica offers $9B for Vivendi’s GVT

    02:39 AM ET · TEF

    • Telefonica (NYSE:TEF) says it is offering €6.7B ($9B) in cash and shares for GVT, Vivendi’s (OTCPK:VIVHY) Brazilian operator.
    • The telecom giant is looking to combine GVT with Vivo, its own Brazilian unit, if the bid is successful.
    • “A combination of both companies would create the largest telecom operator in the largest market in Latin America, providing a unique platform for the generation of synergies and value creation,” says Telefonica.


  46. Tuesday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET


  47. More conflicting numbers again today:

    Misses on PMI, retail sales tepid in Europe last month but better than expected YoY!


  48. And wheeeeee on the Russell!


  49. More on Office Depot’s Q2

    07:10 AM ET · ODP

    • Office Depot (NYSE:ODP) reports consolidated same-store sales fell 3% Y/Y in Q2.
    • Gross margin rate improved 40 bps to 23.0% during the period.
    • The company ended the period with a total of 1,870 retail stores in its North American Retail Division, of which 1,067 were Office Depot stores and 803 were OfficeMax outlets.
    • ODP +2.7% premarket.


  50. Credit Agricole net profit falls 97.5% after Espirito Santo loss

    03:02 AM ET · CRARY

    • Banco Espirito Santo may have received a $6.6B rescue yesterday, however, that did not stop one of its main shareholders from logging a record loss.
    • Credit Agricole (OTCPK:CRARY) has reported that it took a €708M ($950M) hit due to its 14.6% stake it owns in Banco Espirito Santo, nearly wiping out the bank’s Q2 net profit.
    • The French bank is now trying to concentrate on its domestic business and move away from cross-border deals.


  51. Mike Luckovich – Zombie-brained apocalypse :-)


  52. That has to be painful…

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-05/russia-scraps-ruble-bond-sale-as-yields-jump-to-five-month-high.html

    Russia canceled its third ruble bond auction in a row as U.S. and European Union sanctions drive the nation’s borrowing costs to the highest levels since March.

    The Finance Ministry pulled tomorrow’s sale, citing “unfavorable market conditions” in a statement on its website. The yield on Russia’s 10-year bonds rose six basis points to 9.72 percent, the highest since March 14. The rate on the notes has increased 109 basis points since a day before a Malaysian passenger jet crashed in Ukraine on July 17.

    Bond rates going down everywhere but for one place it seems!


  53. Who knew that BAC would be a safe haven in a market correction? ;-)


  54. Child Catcher/Craigs – Of course I know that!  In fact, my cousin Ivan wrote for the Broadway adaptation.  

    Bible/StJ – Selective reading is a wonderful thing.  Maybe we should send him Mark 10: 13-16, where it says:

    People were bringing little children to Jesus to have him touch them, but the disciples rebuked them.  When Jesus saw this, he was indignant. He said to them, "Let the little children come to me, and do not hinder them, for the kingdom of God belongs to such as these.  I tell you the truth, anyone who will not receive the kingdom of God like a little child will never enter it."  And he took the children in his arms, put his hands on them and blessed them.

    More applicable to Palazzo is Matthew 18:2-6:

    "And whoever welcomes a little child like this in my name welcomes me.  But if anyone causes one of these little ones who believe in me to sin, it would be better for him to have a large millstone hung around his neck and to be drowned in the depths of the sea.

    Or, at least, voted out of office.  

    Russia/StJ – It's a good thing they are delaying and not selling at high rates or it would put pressure on others to raise rates.  

    BAC/Diamond – $15 was our target value back when we liked them.  

    Nice head-fake open and then back to selling so far.  


  55. Phil – I kind of like the millstone idea! ;-)


  56. Bible / Phil – Interestingly enough, these passages don't seem to appear in the Conservative Bible:

    http://www.conservapedia.com/Conservative_Bible_Project

    The Conservative Bible Project is a project utilizing the "best of the public" to render God's word into modern English without archaic language and liberal translation distortions. This would debunk the pervasive and hurtful myth that Jesus would be a political liberal today.


  57. OMG, StJ, tell me that's a joke?!?  This is so 1984:

    1. Framework against Liberal Bias: providing a strong framework that enables a thought-for-thought translation without corruption by liberal bias. For example, the Living Bible translation has liberal evolutionary bias;[5] the widely used NIV translation has a pro-abortion bias.[6]
    2. Utilize Terms which better capture original intent: using powerful new conservative terms to capture better the original intent;[9]Defective translations use the word "comrade" three times as often as "volunteer"; similarly, updating words that have a change in meaning, such as "word", "peace", and "miracle".
    3. Express Free Market Parables; explaining the numerous economic parables with their full free-market meaning

    "The insane hubris of this really staggers the mind," writes Rod Dreher at Beliefnet. "These right-wing ideologues know better than the early church councils that canonized Scripture? They really think it's wise to force the word of God to conform to a 21st-century American idea of what constitutes conservatism? These jokers don't worship God. They worship ideology."



  58. wow, WFM shooting up a bit this am, seems to be some rumors about Carl Icahn


  59. Speaking of resurrection, Indexes holding up at S1 lines almost on the button.  Someone is buying the dips.  

    Now we'll see if they can get over those purple lines.  /YM long at 16,450 if they keep heading higher.  


  60. Dollar jumped to 81.67, that's not helping boost the market or commodities.  Oil could be fun to play bullish for a bounce off $98 (/CL) but tight stops below as there isn't too much catalyst at the moment.  


  61. WFM/Pwright – That was our logic, they have simply gotten too cheap to be ignored:

    Submitted on 2014/07/30 at 10:49 am

    WFM 2016 $35 puts can be sold for $3.60 and that can be used to buy the $35/45 bull call spread for $3.85 for net .25 on the $10 spread that's $3.15 in the money to start.  Good enough to put 5 in the LTP.  

     

    For educational purposes, would you please compare your suggested WFM spread from above to a slightly different approach: Sell 2016 33 put 2.75 and buy 2016 37/45 bcs 2.75. Is there a major disadvantage in this alternative approach? TIA

    Submitted on 2014/07/30 at 11:46 am

    WFM/Griffin – The biggest difference is my spread is starting out in the money @ $35 with WFM at $38.40 so I have bought just .45 of premium on the long spread while selling $3.60 of premium on the short puts.  So, with 500 options, I sold net $1,625 in premium over 533 days and will make about $3 a day on theta decay.  Aside from the $37/45 bull call spread making $2 less Dollars at $45 and needing $2 more dollars to make any money at the same net (about zero), you have bought $1.35 of premium on the bull call spread and sold $2.75 of it for net $1.40 premium sold ($700 on 5 contracts) over 533 days or about $1.40 per day so less than half the Theta gain of the other play.  It may not seem like much but, if you are giving up $1.40 a day on 20 positions (not even accounting for the poorer position and lower upside potential) that's $30 a day x 365 = $11,000 a year.  The real question is, what do you think is better about it? 


  62. It seems the market agrees, and is now repricing WFM …

    Whole Foods Stock not Much More Expensive Than Kroger


  63. ABX – speaking of millstones.. my old $33 and $28 short puts on have been a long term drag, but I wouldn't think of covering them down here. just roll and wait and roll and wait.. sell (puts) and hold doesn't perform any better than buy (stock) and hold.  indeed, only has limited upside and the annualized return gets poorer with every roll out.


  64. Maybe we can get rid of the CEOs too:

    http://www.theverge.com/2014/8/4/5968405/ibm-wants-watson-to-orchestrate-your-next-board-room-takeover

    Imagine suddenly having the computer from Star Trek right there with you during your next your board meeting. By virtue of its supercharged processing capabilities, it knows everything there is to know about your company, and can brief you instantly on any aspect. In time, it becomes your favourite co-worker. This is the kind of future that IBM is proposing with a new project that could one day allow Watson, the company's artificially intelligent computer system, to contribute to business meetings.

    According to MIT Technology Review, IBM is testing a wall-sized prototype in the Thomas J. Watson research center in New York. Thanks to the system's ceiling-mounted microphones, the computer can listen for its name (make sure your CEO isn't called "Watson") and execute commands, all while transcribing the entire meeting.

    But the version of Watson that IBM wants to integrate in your next board meeting is way more than a stenographer, because it can actively participate in the discussion at hand. In a live demonstration, it helped researchers generate a list of companies to acquire, using only an internal memo summarizing a fake company's strategy, decision-making algorithms, and a voice command ("Watson, show me companies between $15 million and $60 million in revenue relevant to that strategy").

    After some back and forth between the fake executives and the computer, Watson narrowed down its results, and rendered a verdict. "I recommend eliminating Kawasaki Robotics," it said. When prompted to explain, it told the researchers that Kawasaki Robotics "is inferior to Cognilytics in every way."


  65. Gamers.. ATVI and TTWO report after close today. any earnings plays?


  66. Phil re: NTAP, I have a calendar spread on this in an IRA, long Jan 15 33 calls and short Aug 37s.  With earnings coming up Aug 13, I was thinking if they beat could easily push above 40, it might be worth paying $.55 to roll those Aug 37s to Oct 39s.  What do you think?

    Thanks


  67. Good Morning!   I've not posted for months it seems, but I still intermittently linger and loiter.  Today I have a question for Phil or anyone who knows the answer.  My wife just lost her brother to cancer.  He left her, quite unexpectedly, a small but not inconsequential chunk of money.  This was mailed to her in the form of a Canadian check.  On the check it did NOT say 'U.S. funds', which is pertinent information.  I've spoken with a couple of banks here in USA and find that they do not cash such a check, or even deposit it to your account, at the  going exchange rate.  Not even close.  For instance, on a day when the exchange rate is 92.5, for instance, my bank will offer to exchange at about 87.0.  Doesn't sound like much of a difference, but for a large check it means an immediate loss of several thousand dollars.  How can this Canadian money best be changed into USA greenbacks, without having someone peel of several thousand for themselves in the process.  Thanks ahead for your expertise.  Miss you all! 


  68. Surprising, Euro close not affecting / sending our markets lower today……Every other time we get shellacked? what did I miss today?


  69. Iflantheman – You can confer with your broker about cashing and depositing the check into a brokerage account. As an alternative, contact the issuing bank and inquire about having them convert the check into U.S. Dollars and forwarding to the recipient.


  70. lflantheman – Serious question: Can your wife open a Canadian account with the funds? If so, a Canadian brokerage account may give her some additional benefits.


  71. Iflan/CADfunds – Try to find a Canadian bank in your location, Royal Bank, BMO (Harris), TD, Bank of Nova Scotia, CIBC, etc. Open a Canadian account for now and plan a trip to Canada in the near future where you will be able to convert to US at a favorable rate.


  72. Phil / CZR
    Following on the fly. This is my learning fly, so apologies for the repetition. It took a bit for me to wrap your strategy around my head
    From your post yesterday ( as CZR keeps dropping ) it seems your PATIENTLY waiting for earnings on the 11th ?
    IF we are rolling //
    -10 Sept $20 puts >> Jan15 $17.5 puts = ( -$1.50 debit )
    - 10 Jan16 $22.5 calls >> Jan16 $15's = ( $1.75 credit )

    so rolled position //
    -10 Sept $16 calls ( to expire worthless )
    -10 Jan15 $17.5 puts
    -10 Jan16 $22.5 calls
    +10 Jan16 $15 puts
    +10 Jan16 $15 calls
     

     


  73. lflan — Banks will always screw you on foreign checks, and also on wire transfers.  The issue that I have with your situation is (speaking as a lawyer) is that this is not normally the way that estate assets are distributed, and that, depending on the way Canadian probate procedure works and the particulars of your wife's brother's estate, there is always some risk that an executor or some administrator might shut that account down before the check can be honored by that bank.  Just something to think about, time-wise. 


  74. Thanks for all the helpful comments!


  75. lflan – I have experience with both Canadian and US accounts and may be of assistance. If you would send a "hello" email to: clanson1@gmail.com    I will respond to you with perhaps a solution.

    Cheers


  76. Iflan / cad – If you manage to get the monies deposited into a brokerage account in Canada or the US, I would suggest using Norbert's gambit to convert the funds into USD. In short, you basically buy a Canadian etf trading under the ticker DLR.to, then ask your broker to journal the shares to the etf's US version trading under ticker DLR. Once the shares are journaled over, you sell the shares and voila, you have the funds converted into USD for basically commission only. If you google Norbert's gambit, there are several articles outlining the procedure in more detail. Being Canadian, I have done this a few times and was able to save all exchange fees a bank would have charged. 


  77. h aha !!!!!
    pfehlmann !!!!  the man >>>


  78. Wow, TF up to 1,124 already.  Still can't get 1,930 on /ES so that's worrying.  

    ABX/Scott – That's pretty high.  Since you essentially own ABX at net $30ish, why not close those for $15 and $10 (assuming Jan) for a $7.50 loss on 2x and then play 2016 $15/20 bull call spreads at $2.25, offset with the $17 puts at $2.15.  Worst case is you are assigned at $17 plus the $7.50 you already lost = $24.50 or, if over $20, no assignment and $5 in pocket drops the loss to $2.50.  

    Watson/StJ – "I recommend eliminating Kawasaki Robotics" says it all, no need to point out what a terrible idea this will  turn out to be!  

    Seriously, as soon as you have one of these things in a company, some joker will upload the Conservative Bible into it and we're all dead…

    Gamers/Scott – We had good numbers out of GME and others in that space but it does kind of come down to individual game demand.  Neither one is cheap – near all-time highs, so not a play I'd make since I don't think they'll do badly – but they may not do well enough to justify their prices. 

    NTAP/Pwright – I agree it's worth .55 to buy $2 more of headroom since the premium is already washed out.  Your long calls are in the money and you can always sell puts if they go the other way so up is your main worry. 

    Hola Iflan!  It has been a while.  On the check thing, I'd check with TD bank (or the issuing bank), who deal with both currencies in large quantities.  If possible, you may want to ask the people who sent you the check to instead wire the money as a transfer should go through at the day's rate, not to mention you certainly want to be sure it was meant to be Canadian funds and not US, an oversight like that may have cost you quite a bit!  Also, if you have a business account (or check with your broker) or know someone with one, there are likely to be more reasonable exchange fees.  

    And what Diamond and Chas said!  

    Europe/Jasu – They had some really strange action today, FTSE flat, DAX and CAC up 0.35%, Italy and Spain down 1.5%.

    CZR/Wombat – Damn, they are still falling!  That's painful.  Bondholder filed a lawsuit so this is going to take a long time to unwind.  Nothing wrong with rolling but I'm trying to decide if the position is worth the headache. Or we move on and find something better to trade.  

    The Daily Docket: Caesars Bondholders File Suit

    Noteholders say Caesars fraudulently transferred gaming assets

    Caesars Sues Investors Claiming Bid to Force Company to Default

    Very nice Phel!  Wow, looks like Lflan picked the right forum to ask that question!  


  79. $97.50 on oil – I wonder if this one will hold?  


  80. This is the funniest thing I have read in awhile.  These are modern day episode plots of "Seinfeld" if it was on today:

    http://favstar.fm/users/seinfeldtoday


  81. Phil // CZR
    In no hurry. Standing by.


  82. Dollar up 0.3% today – that has to be some headwind for the markets!


  83. 200 DMA for /CL September contract is at $97.11 now! Getting close…


  84. Seinfeld/Rustle – You know the plan studios have is to have fully functioning avatars for all the actors so they can just plug ideas like that into a computer and get a show out of it in minutes.   

    Student loans/Scott – That law is insane.  Was changed this way in 1998 and has trapped millions of students since.  Meanwhile, Warren is the best!!! 

    Dollar/StJ – Seems to have had enough at 81.70, now back to 81.65.  What's strange is the Nikkei still laying around at 15,375 despite the strong Dollar.  Yen tapped 103 and Euro fell from $1.34 to $1.337 so can't be them – makes me like those EWJ puts (20 Sept $12 puts at .24 in $25KP) a lot more!  


  85. Ifam-Be very cautious about brokerage accounts & banking in Canada. IF you do not need the funds immediately you can open an account at a Canadian bank. You get in to all kinds of tax ramifications with Can stocks & when you sell they withhold taxes of a certain percentage. We had real estate sales there & a long term bank account & waited until the exchange rate was good to pull funds out….but any foreign account over 10K has to be reported to the Feds on your income tax & the Canadian taxes are horrendous. We had to have the lawyer file a amended return to get back some of the taxes withheld; needless to say you might just want to have them exchange to the US dollars & save some headaches. The feds will want to "verify" where these funds came from also if over 10K so expect a hold up in getting the actual cash. Then we paid big taxes here on the profit, fed & state so we were taxed three times for our profit which was a big sum of cash. But remember corporations, many, don't pay ANY taxes. Hopefully you can avoid some of these headaches but be cautious..


  86. i have this new theory
    never read an article that ends with a question mark.


  87. Phil thanks re: NTAP, I went ahead with the roll..


  88. Wow, Pirate, what a pain in the ass.  This is why we all need to incorporate ourselves – so we can have some rights!  

    Good theory Wombat, though I've committed that sin myself. 

    You're welcome Pwright.  

    Webinar in an hour

    Oil just down and down and down at $97.25 now.  That can lead to a cascading failure as the energy stocks begin to fail as well.  Silver plunged to $19.82, that's about .40 on the day (2%) at $50 per penny ($2,000 per contract).  Gold down to $1,285 again, where we usually like a long on /YG but this is getting scary looking.  

    Index Futures at: 16,424, 1,923, 3,877 and 1,122.  Pretty much right between S1 and the flat line except the RUT (/TF) which is well over flat (1,115) so a tempting short below 1,122.50 – especially if oil fails $97.25 but it SHOULD be bouncy here to $97.50, in the very least.  


  89. I'm starting to warm up to DBA again as it holds the 200 dma at $26.50. 

    We got into them about $25 in November and got out at around $29, so that's our range and I'd like to seem them go lower again but not too likely if Corn bottoms at $25.  Not at all exciting to sell puts with 2016 $25 puts just $1.10 but worth keeping an eye on if the VIX goes up or the market goes down as it's a great long-term inflation hedge, so no worries if you end up owning it. 

     
    • Dow -0.45%.
    • 10-yr -0.15%.
    • Euro -0.42% vs. dollar.
    • Crude -0.91% to $97.40.
    • Gold -0.26% to $1,285.50.

    All-Industry PMI at highest level since February 2011

    • July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: 58.7 vs. 56.5 expected and 56.0 prior (>50 denotes expansion)
    • Business Activity: 62.4 vs. 57.5
    • New Orders: 64.9 vs. 61.2
    • Employment: 56.0 vs 54.4
    • June Factory Orders: +1.1% vs. consensus of +0.6%, -0.5% prior.
    • Ex-transportation +1.1% vs. -0.1 prior.

    Asia's Next Crisis Is a Flood of Debt

    Weak Japan Exports, Output Said to Raise Concerns at BOJBank of Japan officials are concerned about increasing signs of weakness in the economy following a sales-tax increase, according to people familiar with the central bank’s discussions. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board will discuss this week if they should lower their assessment of the nation’s exports and also whether to express caution about a decline in industrial production, said the people, who asked not to be identified because talks are private. Economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG cut their estimates for second-quarter gross domestic product after data showed exports unexpectedly declined, retail sales dropped more than forecast and output fell the most since the March 2011 earthquake.

    J.P. Morgan(JPM) Said Possible Losses Related to Litigation Could Be $4.6 Billion

    Flash Boys' Katsuyama Blasts Back At Ex-CFTC Chilton's "Incorrect Claims"

    Vornado flat after Q2 results

    • Adjusted FFO of $271.6M or $1.44 per share vs. $239.3M and $1.27 a year ago. Dividend is $0.73. Adjusted FFO payout ratio falls to 50.7% from 57.5%.
    • NYC portfolio same-store occupancy of 97.3% up 120 basis points Y/Y. D.C. portfolio same-store occupancy of 83.5% down 10 bps.
    • Retail portfolio occupancy of 94% down 50 bps.
    • Conference call at 10 ET
    • VNO flat in early trade
    • Previously: Vornado Realty Trust beats by $0.02, misses on revenue

    Cash recovery in Europe's oil sector isn't a Total success

    • Europe's major oil companies are starting to pay their own way, as spending cuts and improving operations finally mean at least some are covering their investment and dividends from operating cash flow.
    • Among Europe's big three, BP and Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) have made clear strides: BP generated nearly $4B in H1 free cash flow, enough to cover its dividends, while Shell is largely funding itself internally after a dismal 2013, as it churned out $7B in H1 free cash flow against the $12B it pays out in dividends for the full year.
    • Total (NYSE:TOT), however, is beginning to falter: Cash flow from operations, excluding volatile movements in working capital, barely covered H1 spending, and TOT likely will struggle to hit its target of $10B in free cash flow for 2015 due to delays at non-operated large projects such as Kashagan.
    • Changes to its cash flow and production outlooks are likely at TOT's investor day in September, Heard on the Street's Helen Thomas writes.
    • North Dakota’s crude oil production passed 1M bbl/day in April and remained above the 1M benchmark in May on the strength of production from the Bakken and Three Forks formations.
    • One reason for May's 3.6% M/M growth to 1.039M bbl/day was the addition of 227 producing wells through the state, with 10,892 producing wells in May compared to 10,665 in April.
    • Average production per well in the state also grew between the months, to 2,959 barrels per well from 2,822 in April.
    • North Dakota's oil fields now account for 12% of all U.S. oil production, and more than 1% of global production.
    • Top Bakken producers include CLREOGKOGWLLHESXOMOASNOGEOXMRO.

    Chinese solar stocks rally as new incentives reportedly prepped

    • Bloomberg reports China's National Energy Administration (NEA) might soon announce policies calling on local planners to support more distributed solar projects – specifically, projects in industrial zones, and for companies with buildings sporting large rooftops.
    • Among others things, local governments will be encouraged to offer more distributed solar subsidies, and to promote installations on public infrastructure. Financial firms will be urged to offer discounted loans, and to create solar investment funds.
    • China is aiming for 8GW of 2014 distributed solar installations (to go with 6GW of utility-scale installations), but there have been doubts the target will be hit following a slow start to the year. Deutsche argued in May 2GW could be a more realistic distributed target.
    • Chinese solar names are up strongly. U.S. giant First Solar reports after the bell. TSL +8.4%.CSUN +7.6%. JKS +8.3%. SOL +6.7%. CSIQ +6.3%. JASO +5.7%. HSOL +4.8%. YGE +4.8%.DQ +4.1%. YGE +4.8%.
    • Solar ETFs: TANKWT

    Sizable July inflows for gold ETfs

    • The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD -0.3%) saw 11.1 tons of new gold last month, according to the Commerzbank team. Tossing in the iShares Gold Trust (IAU -0.3%) and the rest of the gold complex, about 15.7 tons came in, making it the largest monthly inflow since November 2012. For 2014 in total, tough, there remain net outflows to the tune of 30 tons.
    • Outflows have been blamed for mostly falling prices over the last year-plus, but July's inflows may have helped staunch an otherwise tough month for gold.

    Wild day already for Whole Foods Market

    • Whole Foods Market (WFM +3%) is having a volatile day after rumors of interest by Carl Icahn in the company crop up.
    • Shares of WFM were as high as +5%, and volume on WFM for the day is already 150% of normal trading activity, despite the speculative nature of the original report.
    • Shares of Bloomin' Brands (BLMN -18.8%) are in a steep fall after a weak Q2 report and soft guidance from the restaurant chain operator.
    • The company sees EPS of $1.05-$1.10 for FY14 vs. $1.23 consensus.
    • News of the company's expansion into Brazil for the Cabbarra concept hasn't helped to stem the selling pressure.
    • During the firm's earnings call, execs seemed surprised that sales didn't recover after harsh weather kept traffic down in Q1. Some restaurants analysts would say a shift in consumer preferences toward fast-casual was more at play.
    • Earnings call webcast

    Hospitals Cash In on the Newly InsuredMore Surgery, Maternity Care, ER Visits Boost Admissions—to Insurance Firms' ChagrinA rush of newly insured patients using health services has boosted hospital operators' fortunes but has racked up costs that insurers didn't anticipate, corporate filings and interviews with executives show. People are getting more back surgeries, seeking maternity care and showing up at emergency rooms more frequently, executives say, boosting income for hospital operators. At Tenet Healthcare Corp., patient volumes rose 4%… 

    RetailMeNot -24.9% on soft guidance, search traffic worries

    • RetailMeNot (NASDAQ:SALE) guided on its CC (transcript) for Q3 revenue of $53M-$57M and full-year revenue of $262M-$270M, below consensus estimates of $62.6M and $282.1M.
    • The company admitted organic search traffic growth has been hit by mid-Q2 Google algorithm changes (previous). It adds monetization for e-commerce promotions has been hurt by lower growth for organic search (has higher conversion rates), and by "an increase in the proportion of … organic traffic that is directed to un-monetized offers."
    • "Some recovery" has been seen in organic search growth, but rates still aren't at the levels experienced earlier this year. Organic search made up 64% of Q2 Web traffic. RetailMeNot is counting on a TV ad campaign, initiatives with retail clients, and personalized promo e-mails to boost traffic going forward.
    • RBC' Mark Mahaney has cut shares to Hold. He thinks Google's efforts to better monetize e-commerce traffic via solutions such as Product Listing Ads "may constitute a substantial long-term challenge to SALE’s fundamentals," and states implied Q4 guidance "implies a Q/Q recovery in EBITDA margins of approx. 1,000 bps, which seems overly aggressive."
    • Q2 resultsPR

    BlackBerry gains as Chen declares restructuring over

    • "We have completed the restructuring notification process, and the workforce reduction that began three years ago is now behind us," says John Chen (BBRY +4.4%) in a memo picked up by Reuters.
    • He adds BlackBerry plans to grow headcount "in certain areas such as product development, sales and customer service, beginning in modest numbers." Chen once more expresses confidence the company will be cash flow positive by the end of FY15 (ends Feb. '15).
    • Chen's remarks arrive 11 months after BlackBerry launched a giant restructuring that involved cutting 4.5K jobs. Overall, headcount has fallen by ~60% over the last 3 years.
    • 92.9M shares (19% of the float) remained shorted as of July 15.
    • Prior remarks from Chen: IIIIII

  90. Phil re: CZR, that has turned into a bit of a dog indeed.  I've got the short Sept 20 puts against the long Jan 2016 17.5 puts, looks like the only way I can squeak out of those puts is to roll the 20s all the way either to March 2015 (pay $.20) or Jan 2016 ($1.00 credit, then I max my loss at $1.50 minus whatever put premium I had sold before).  So I guess the theory would be to do that and then try to make a bit back over the next 17 months or so selling calls?  I've got the long Jan 2016 25 calls, not worth much, maybe the best thing would be just to kill the calls for now, go ahead and roll the puts to 2016s and cap my losses (if I cash out the puts today, losses will be bigger, and if I kill the calls only but keep the puts, it should free up some margin, could always get back into some calls later if it looks warranted)

    Let me know what you think, and thanks in advance..


  91. Great TED Talk:


  92. CZR/Pwright – The problem is, if they resolve their issues, short calls will kill you and, if they go BK, short puts will kill you.  Too many ways to kill you indicates maybe we need to pull the plug.  We'll talk about this in the Webinar for sure.  


  93. I'm liking this bounce at 1,120 on /TF, 16,400 on /YM, 1,920 on /ES and 15,350 on /NKD – just a low volume bounce but could be good for quick cash.  


  94. Phil thanks re: CZR; I likely won't be able to join webinar in real time (I'm pretending to be working :) ) but one question I had was, if they go BK and I'm holding long Jan 16 17.5 puts against short Jan 16 20 puts, TOS would just net me out a $2.50 loss (even if they BK in, say, September), is that correct?

    Thanks


  95. CZR/Pwright – You would lose the net of the two puts.  

    Webinar time!  


  96. Dollar / Phil – Actually, the euro is down 0.4% today. Canadian dollar is down 0.5%, yen down 0.2%, Australian dollar down 0.3% and the pound is neutral. So weakness pretty much all around.


  97. CZR looking at the bright side just closed the 10x Sep14 20p for 7.50 for a net loss of 4900$ but as I said the bright side my acc of CZR is still at a credit of 7,600.00 So we see what happens. Sometimes you have to pull the plug can't win all the time.


  98. DBA / Phil – For some reason, options are always so cheap on them! It doesn't make that much sense when you see that DBA went up 20% in 3 months and is now down 15%. These options don't seem to price volatility correctly.


  99. Wow, CZR down 8.5% last week and down another 18% this week! Looking to go back to the lows of 2012 at $5 it seems. All these talks about their debt seem to be freaking out people.


  100. Phil / CZR – would you be able to post your solution to CZR butterfly after the webinar. I'm unable to call in to the webinar from work and the replay links are usually slow to post. Thanks!


  101. CZR Sorry having frightened you guys but sometimes you have to take a punch


  102. ABX sure looks cheap, but with the Euro seeming overvalued and the "threat of inflation" almost laughable in the near future [although in the long run, we will of course have inflation  - as has been said about G-d, "if it didn't exist, it would have to be invented,"but  I fail to see the appeal for now.


  103. Phil / PWE – your thoughts on this one?  recommended by Barrons recently.  accounting issues recently disclosed – how serious are these do u think?


  104. It looks like Apple just scheduled their iPhone event for September 9th.  


  105. Inflation / Zero – I guess we'll have inflation, one day… Tough to see that any time soon if people keep on racing to the bottom with salaries around the world. Who will have money to buy anything? I guess food prices and energy prices could inflate, but then no more iPhones for little Joey and Sally!


  106. Any adjustments to the Oct SCO BCS?  I'm in at $25/28 and, despite the great action on /CL, I don't foresee SCO holding $28 since at the point I initiated the position, SCO should have been $28 at $100 oil.


  107. Good numbers for the ISM Non-Manufacturing:

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/5/upside-surprise-in-ism-services.html

    Combining Tuesday's ISM Services report with the ISM Manufacturing report from Friday and accounting for each sector's share of the economy gives us a combined reading of 58.3, which is also the best reading since November 2005.  While these numbers are certainly encouraging, they probably won't give any comfort to those investors who may already skittish about the Fed.


  108. Didn't know that, but it seems that the USPS is a sub-contractor of Fedex and UPS:

    http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-mail-does-the-trick-for-fedex-ups-1407182247

    Both UPS and FedEx rely on the postal office for the back-end of their cheaper two- to seven-day delivery options, Smartpost for FedEx and Surepost for UPS. Amazon also uses the USPS and enlisted it for Sunday deliveries. The post office's Parcel Select service, launched in its current format in 2008, allows the companies to transport the packages the long distance themselves, then sort by ZIP Code and deliver to the local post office. The letter carrier takes it for the most expensive last leg of the delivery.[...]

    The USPS has generated about $1 billion in operating profit so far this year, but that is before its approximate $5.5 billion required annual contribution for retiree benefits.

    I always wondered why Congress is forcing the USPS to set aside so much money for retiree benefits! Apparently, that doesn't apply to states – for example, Christie has been short changing the pension funds for the last 5 years. And WMT retirees have to do with Social Security and Medicare. Much cheaper!


  109. CZR – So our official decision is to take the loss in the Butterfly Portfolio and kill the trade.  In the Long-Term Portfolio, we will sell 20 2016 $10 puts for $2.30 ($4,600) to begin chipping away at the loss.  

    The SCO trade in the STP should be totally off the table now as it's not worth waiting until October to make the rest of the money.  

    If I forgot one, please let me know.  


  110. stj,

    i followed you on qcom a few months ago……what are your thoughts i.e. getting back in or waiting to see where this correction ? goes…… ……….tks


  111. SOLD 5 BRK B Jan15'16 110 PUT (BRKB) @AMEX @ 4.25


  112. CZR/Pwright – Yes, you should net out with the $2.50 net loss (plus whatever it cost you).  

    DBA/StJ – That's why I'm not in a hurry to get in.  We had some pretty good prices in the fall and that's why I wanted to jump on them.  Now, not so much.   

    CZR/Pfehl – Our solution was to pull the plug – it's just not a reliable trade for the portfolio.  Our plan with the short puts is to see if CZR finds a floor above $10 and, if so, then add bull call spreads.  

    And Yodi is very right on that one.  

    Inflation/ZZ – The problem with inflation is it's never there until it is and then it doesn't go away.  

    Speaking of gold – just jumped to $1,293! 

    PWE/Terra – Someone was supposed to remind me over the weekend to look into the merits but here's the summary:

    I think, on the whole, you don't want to try to be a hero with these guys.  Even if the suits are without merit, it's a big hassle for a small company just to deal with the allegations and they still have to fix their accounting issues. 

    IPhone/Palotay – That came up fast.  

    Post Office/StJ – It's the money-losing arm of FDX and UPS, no wonder they are such big lobbyists:


  113. QCOM / Mill – I am in no rush to get back in yet. It still looks very weak to me technically and the market itself is not conducive to going long! I would rather be like Buffett now and wait with the bat on my shoulder rather than take shot at fastballs low and away.


  114. Fedex / Phil – I hope that they are lobbying to keep the Post Office alive then… 

    People don't realize how cheap postage is in this country. Most of Europe if between $0.75 and $0.90 or about twice what it is here in the US! Raise the price and be done with the USPS deficit. Unless you want it to fail so that all these unions jobs can go to private companies. Oh wait…


  115. Still seems to be sell programs running.


  116. Webinar Replay here: http://bit.ly/080514Replay


  117. This has to be a joke:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nra-dom-raso-blind-guns

    A National Rifle Association commentator defended the rights of blind people to carry guns in a video Monday, saying a victim doesn't need to be able to see "if someone is on top of you trying to kill or rape you."


  118. Re: DBA, I have a friend in Iowa who has a decent amount of farmland, he lets me know his expectation is for grain prices to be soft for foreseeable future.  But food prices tend to be "stickier," food producers can take advantage of low grain prices and keep food prices steady, might expect profits of certain food producers to come in ahead of the averages.  So maybe there's a play in there somewhere; CAG?  PPC?  At any rate, FWIW


  119. Phil – AFL approaching the 52 week low, PE of ~10, is it too soon to take a poke?


  120. 1,910 holding on /ES, /TF 1,112.50, /NQ 3,855 and /YM 16,322. 

    Oil $97.38, gold $1,291 with the Dollar at 81.59. 

    Post Office/StJ – But Congress (who is lobbied by FDX and UPS) doesn't let the post office raise rates (they are under Congressional authority) and they also don't want them competing against FDX and UPS in more profitable segments for some reason….  This idiocy has gone on forever though:

    Oh well, at least someone is happy:

    • U.S. Steel (X +1.7%) shoots to another 52-week high, adding to its recent string of gains following its upside earnings surprise and optimistic outlook, buttressed by three analyst upgrades.
    • After Deutsche Bank upped its rating yesterday to Buy, KeyBanc followed with a Buy rating of its own and hinting at merger possibilities for U.S. Steel in its sector; earlier this year, KeyBanc raised its rating only to cut it shortly thereafter, but the firm's recommendation now include 2014 and 2015 earnings estimates handily above consensus.
    • U.S. Steel may be just a shadow of its former self – the stock traded above $40 in 2010 and 2011, and at more than $100 before to the recession – but the thinking may be that if Alcoa can turn itself around, maybe companies like U.S. Steel can too.

    Goldman's picks in small caps

    • Cautious overall on small caps (NYSEARCA:IWM) due to valuation concerns, Goldman's David Kostin nevertheless has a list of 25 names with market caps less than $4B which could offer at least 25% upside to his firm's price target over the next year.
    • The list skews towards Consumer Discretionary – Lumber Lidquidators (LL +2.1%), Office Depot (ODP -2.4%), RetailMeNot (SALE -26.1%), Ryland (RYL +0.5%), Steven Madden (SHOO+2.7%), Vitamin Shoppe (VSI -8.2%) – and Tech – Universal Display (OLED -0.2%), Qlik Technologies (QLIK -1.6%), Proofpoint (PFPT -1.5%), Polycom (PLCM +0.2%), Nimble Storage (NMBL -0.3%), Marketo (MKTO +1.1%), Infinera (INFN +1.1%), Cornerstone Ondemand (CSOD-0.9%), GT Advanced Technology (GTAT +5.7%).
    • Also included are Health Care names: Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO -1.1%), NPS Pharma (NPSP +0.7%), NuVasive (NUVA -1.8%), Synageva (GEVA -1.6%); Consumer Staples: Darling Ingredients (DAR -0.8%); Materials: Axiall (AXLL -1%), Boise Cascade (BCC -0.9%); Industrials: Granite Construction (GVA +0.7%), Financials: MGIC Investment (MTG +1.2%), Radian (RDN+1.7%).

    Archer Daniels sees bumper crops driving profits

    • Archer Daniels Midland (ADM +3.7%) powers higher after reporting better than expected Q2 earnings, citing strong U.S. exports and demand for ethanol.
    • ADM President Juan Luciano said on today's earnings conference call that a second straight year of bumper U.S. crops will boost ADM's grain-trading profits by driving greater volumes through its trade and transportation network.
    • ADM already is benefiting from rising U.S. grain and oilseed output, with crop-trading income rising about eightfold in Q2 to $115M, as ramped-up exports improved profits over drought-crimped results a year earlier.
    • Luciano also expects strong harvests in North America and Europe to help lift quarterly profits in ADM's agricultural services unit to the high end of the division's historical range of $200M-$250M.
    • Also, ADM says it expects to have a signed agreement to sell its global chocolate business by the end of Q3.

    GT Advanced pares gains as Street looks for more Apple clarity

    • "With rampant speculation around what Apple will or won’t release, we see a balanced risk reward given the information available," says Canaccord, reiterating a Hold on GT Advanced (GTAT +4.6%). Nonetheless, the firm still calls GT well-positioned to "benefit from a move to sapphire cover glass in the handset market, as well as a ramp in solar and some new technologies."
    • Raymond James is now expecting GT's 2014 results to be even more sharply weighted towards Q4, and says its confidence in its estimates remains "subdued."
    • UBS estimates 2014 sales to Apple will now be $150M below what the firm originally expected, and that full-year EPS will get a ~$0.26 boost from the backing out of $44M in costs related to GT's sapphire production ramp.
    • Stifel is staying positive, declaring GT's guidance still implies "continued progress with Apple with increasingly material volumes."
    • With Apple demanding strict secrecy from suppliers, management was predictably tight-lipped about its top client on the CC (transcript). CEO Tom Gutierrez: "I can’t speak to the volumes or the applications or the timing of Apple’s business."
    • Gutierrez did admit there are "exclusivity provisions" related to the Apple deal, but added the provisions aren't all-encompassing. "There are applications that we can sell into, but I am not at liberty to provide a lot of detail…"
    • new report states Apple is holding a Sep. 9 iPhone launch event.
    • Q2 resultsguidance/details

    Report: Apple holding iPhone event on Sep. 9

    • Re/code's John Paczkowski reports Apple (AAPL -0.6%) will hold an iPhone event on Tuesday, Sep. 9. That meshes with the company's historical iPhone launch schedule, as well as a 9to5 Mac report stating Apple is "tentatively" planning a mid-September iPhone 6 event.
    • Paczkowski has a solid track record for Apple launch event scoops. Today's report suggests (given Apple's history) the iPhone 6 could go on sale on Friday, Sep. 19.
    • Expectations for strong next-gen iPhone sales are particularly high this year, given pent-up demand for bigger models. In addition to 4.7" and 5.5" displays (widely reported), the rumor millhas mentioned sapphire cover glass, optical image stabilization, an NFC radio, wireless charging, and Cat-6 LTE (theoretical max speeds of 300Mbps) as potential new features.
    • Apple has also been reported to be negotiating iPhone 6 price hikes.
    • Shares have ticked slightly higher on the report.

    NRA/StJ – Here's the video

    Food/Pwright – Actually, I liked WFM based on Ag trends.  

    AFL/Deano – I like them, but not with this market action.  


  121. By the way, it's fun to watch that video and replace the word "gun" with "car" – same logic should apply. 


  122. Seems like there's no IQ test either:

    Or morals:


  123. So it appears that the drop at 1:40 was due to a Polish official stating that Russian troops are poised to invade the Ukraine.


  124. How about boats and planes Phil? Or heavy machinery… How about hunting licences?


  125. Dick Cheney sends other people to unjustified wars to die but when he shot his hunting partner he didn't get the job done. The birds lucked out.


  126. Interestingly enough, dollar seemed to have gone down at the same as the market but oil seemed calm. Very counter-intuitive! Obviously, Russia invading Ukraine would not be a good thing!


  127. Russian troops have been poised to invade Ukraine for two months – that's a non-event.  

    Blind/StJ – I wonder how they feel about immigrants getting guns?  We could hand them out at the boarder.

    Key for the day is losing 1,925 on the S&P (weak bounce line) and 4,375 on Nas and 10,730 on NYSE (from morning post).  We'll see if they can take them back into the close but a bit far out now.  


  128.      StJ:  No Joke   "Jimmy Takes Blind People to a Shooting Range"  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upFWxf5F-qQ


  129. HEY thats my hometown newspaper above


  130. ZZ Blind

    I can assure you many of the blind can hit more that the cops or Cheney!


  131. No magic saves into close.  More waiting and seeing in the immediate future. 

    Oil back to $97.50, gold $1,289, dollar 80.60.  


  132. Rocket Fuel -23.8% due to guidance; $202M acquisition announced

    05:10 PM ET · FUEL

    • Though Rocket Fuel (NASDAQ:FUEL) beat Q2 estimates, it’s guiding for Q3 revenue $96M-$100M and full-year revenue from current operations of $385M-$405M, below consensus estimates of $109.6M and $422.6M.
    • Rocket Fuel states advertiser commitments were weaker than expected towards the end of Q2. It blames tighter control of client spend by internal ad agency trading desks, a shift towards direct licensing among advertisers, and (notably) concerns about industry ad inventory quality.
    • The online ad retargeting platform has also announced it’s buying [x+1], provider of a programmatic (automated) ad platform that helps marketers manage and optimize the use of their data for ad campaigns. Rocket Fuel is paying $100M in cash + 5.4M shares (current value of $101.8M).
    • The companies predict the combo of [x+1]‘s data management offerings with Rocket Fuel’s A.I./analytics-driven programmatic ad platform will give CMOs “a robust toolset to control the content, timing, and frequency of messaging to their customers on a global basis.” Rocket Fuel also sees opportunities to cross-sell to [x+1]‘s clients, which include Fortune 100 businesses.
    • [x+1] is expected to contribute $18M-$22M to 2014 sales, assuming the deal closes early in Q4.
    • Q2 results, PR


  133. North Dakota crude no more dangerous than similar fuels, report finds

    04:58 PM ET · CLR

    • An industry-funded study concludes that crude oil from the Bakken region is similar to other North American light, sweet crudes and does not pose a greater risk to transport by rail than other crudes and transportation fuels.
    • But the study also outlines several best practices intended to boost safety, including classifying the crude higher on the hazardous material shipping scale.
    • The group hopes the report allays fears that Bakken oil may be more prone to ignition after a series of accidents involving rail shipments of the oil.
    • Bakken producers include CLR, EOG, KOG, WLL, HES, XOM, OAS, NOG, EOX, MRO.


  134. Imperial Metals -40% after B.C. mining waste spills into waterways

    04:49 PM ET · IPMLF

    • Imperial Metals (OTCPK:IPMLF) plunged 40% in Toronto trading today after a tailings pond at the company’s Mount Polley copper and gold mine in central British Columbia broke open, sending ~5M cubic meters of copper and gold mining wastewater into waterways near Likely, B.C.
    • A BMO analyst pegged the cost to the company at $200M, with potential damages in the same order of magnitude; Mount Polley accounted for ~16% in the firm’s $1.6B net present value for IPMLF and contributes ~83% to estimated 2014 EPS of $0.43.


  135. First Solar affirms guidance; bookings pipeline grows

    04:41 PM ET · FSLR

    • In spite of its big Q2 miss, First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) is reiterating guidance for full-year EPS of $2.40-$2.80 (consensus is at $2.70) and operating cash flow of $300M-$500M.
    • The Q2 miss is blamed on project delays that led to deferred revenue recognition to 2H14, and the push-out of revenue recognition for the Campo Verde project.
    • Thanks to the shortfall, gross margin dropped to 17% from 27% a year ago. Opex fell 10% to $90.8M. Net cash was $1.2B at quarter’s end.
    • Expected future systems/3rd-party module revenue is up $500M Q/Q to $7.6B, and expected module shipments for systems and 3rd-party modules is up by 400MW to 3.2GW.
    • Potential bookings opportunities are up 500MW to 12.7GW; the lion’s share are called “early-stage,” and nearly half are in North America. Operations & maintenance (O&M) bookings are above 800MW YTD, thanks in part to the Skytron acquisition.
    • Module production +1% Q/Q and +15% Y/Y to 447MW, and average conversion efficiency rose 50 bps Q/Q and 100 bps Y/Y to 14%. First Solar has achieved a 21% cell efficiency in lab tests, beating a prior mark of 20.4%.
    • FSLR -5.3% AH. Q2 results, PR, slides


  136. Gains across all segments for Disney in FQ3

    04:28 PM ET · DIS

    • Disney (NYSE:DIS) rode a 105% jump in profit for it Studio Entertainment segment to a FQ3 earnings beat.
    • Segment revenue growth: Media Networks +3% to $5.51B; Parks and Resorts +8% to $3,98B; Studio Entertainment +14% to $1,81B; Consumer Products +16% to $902B; Interactive +45% to $266M.
    • Cable Networks operating income was off 7% at ESPN due to higher programming and production costs.
    • The success of Frozen carried over into consumer product sales and is expected to still be a major factor in 2H.
    • Disney Interactive churned up a small profit of $29M as select games sold well and costs were tightened. The segment is benefiting from a narrower focus.
    • Capex spending came in at $2.248B, largely due to costs associated with the construction of Disney Shanghai.
    • DIS -0.1% AH


  137. Groupon -13.9% AH on revenue miss, guidance, daily deals weakness

    04:22 PM ET · GRPN

    • Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) expects Q3 revenue of $720M-$770M and EPS of $0.00-$0.02, unfavorable to a consensus of $760.6M and $0.03. In addition, due to heavy marketing spend, full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance has been lowered to $270M+ from $300M+.
    • The company has entered into a 3-year, $250M credit facility. It has “no immediate plans” to draw on it. $106M was spent on buybacks in Q2.
    • Gross billings rose 28.7% Y/Y in Q2 (nearly even with Q1′s 29.1%) to $1.82B. However, revenue growth slipped to 23.5% from 26% (implies a lower take rate). North American revenue +12.4% to $423.9M, EMEA +42.3% to $228M, rest of world +39.6% to $100M.
    • Local revenue (daily deals-focused, higher margin) -9% Y/Y to $303.7M, Goods (e-commerce-focused) +67% to $402.6M, Travel +44% to $240.3M.
    • Gross profit as a % of billings fell to 21.4% from 27.2%. GAAP marketing spend +16% to $64.3M, SG&A spend +10% to $332.8M.
    • Q2 results, PR, slides


  138. Stocks succumb to profit taking as Ukraine remarks jolt traders

    04:20 PM ET

    • Stocks closed broadly lower after falling sharply around 1:30 following media reports on comments by Polish officials that Russia may be getting ready to invade Ukraine.
    • But geopolitical risk has been heightened for months now, and yet only recently has it started to take a toll; some say the market has been displaying “a change in character” in the past few weeks, with resiliency showing signs of cracking and positive momentum starting to wane.
    • Today’s selloff more than reversed yesterday’s bounce after last week’s big losses, but traders had said most of Monday’s buying was by short-term players closing out bearish bets rather than long-term buyers coming off the sidelines.
    • Energy and utilities were the hardest hit sectors, although all 10 S&P sectors ended in the red.
    • The Ukraine remarks helped Treasury prices recover from early losses; the yield on the 10-year note fell to 2.482% after notching a session high just north of 2.52%.


  139. Activision Blizzard beats by $0.04, beats on revenue

    04:14 PM ET · ATVI

    • Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI): Q2 EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.04.
    • Non GAAP Revenue of $658M (+8.2% Y/Y) beats by $50.25M.
    • Shares +0.63% AH.
    • Press Release


  140. 21st Century Fox withdraws Time Warner offer

    04:14 PM ET · FOXA

    • 21st Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) withdraws its offer to buy Time Warner (NYSE:TWX).
    • The company says Time Warner won’t engage with it over talks.
    • TWX -10.9% in after-hours trading, while FOXA +8.6%.


  141. DryShips beats by $0.05, beats on revenue

    04:05 PM ET · DRYS

    • DryShips (NASDAQ:DRYS): Q2 EPS of -$0.01 beats by $0.05.
    • Revenue of $527.6M (+57.0% Y/Y) beats by $45.53M.
    • Shares +1.5%.
    • Press Release


  142. Frontier Communications EPS and revenue in-line

    04:04 PM ET · FTR

    • Frontier Communications (NASDAQ:FTR): Q2 EPS of $0.05 in-line.
    • Revenue of $1.15B (-3.4% Y/Y) in-line.
    • Press Release


  143. Mini cans a margin booster for Coca-Cola and PepsiCo

    04:02 PM ET · KO

    • Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) plan to offer more mini-can products as a way to stoke volume growth.
    • The category has done well as some consumers replace drinking diet versions of their favorite soda with a smaller-sized bottle or can.
    • A higher mix of mini-can sales is a margin-booster for the companies with the per-ounce revenue almost double for mini cans than regular cans.


  144. At the close

    04:00 PM ET

    • Dow -0.86% to 16,427.61. S&P -0.97% to 1,920.09. Nasdaq -0.71% to 4,352.83.
    • Treasurys: 30-year +0.13%. 10-yr -0.02%. 5-yr -0.06%.
    • Commodities: Crude -0.81% to $97.50. Gold +0.03% to $1,289.30.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.36% vs. dollar. Yen +0.01%. Pound -0.07%.


  145. Quicksilver Resources -16% as Q2 results, Q3 production outlook disappoints

    03:59 PM ET · KWK

    • Quicksilver Resources (KWK -15.7%) tumbles near 14-year lows after reporting Q2 earnings and revenues below Wall Street expectations on declining production.
    • Q2 production fell almost 11% Y/Y to 23.3B cfe, averaging ~255M cf/day, with much of the decline blamed on KWK’s sale of a 25% stake in Barnett shale formation assets to a subsidiary of Tokyo Gas and the natural decline of volumes from its Canadian holdings.
    • Sees Q3 production of 245M-250M cf/day, consisting of ~85% natural gas and 15% natural gas liquids; expected production levels, on average, are being reduced ~5M cf/day due to a planned, two-week outage at a third-party treating facility in the Horn River Basin.
    • Continues to project FY 2014 production of 245M-255M cf/day.


  146. Traffic dips for Cedar Fair in Q2

    03:55 PM ET · FUN

    • Shares of Cedar Fair (FUN -3.1%) slip after a Q2 earnings miss.
    • Traffic declined 2% Y/Y during the period.
    • Average in-park guest spending was up 4% to $43.94.
    • Out-of-park revenue was off 7.9% to $35M.
    • The company says Q3 revenue is up 1% through yesterday.


  147. Report: Walgreen backs away from inversion; stock dives 6.5%

    03:06 PM ET · WAG


  148. Pioneer Natural -5% after “noisy” Q2, but Goldman maintains Buy rating

    02:48 PM ET · PXD

    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD -5%) is defended by Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Singer, who maintains a Buy rating on the shares and lifts his price target to $266 from $257 after a “noisy” Q2 but with 2015 growth on track.
    • While total production beat expectations, oil was lighter as vertical Permian wells that were returned to production at flush rates in Q1 declined in Q2; oil comprised 63% of Permian production vs. 68% in Q1, but the firm views the 67% 2013 average as more normal and expects an oilier mix as horizontal growth rises.
    • The firm remains confident in PXD’s growth, with H2 ramp-up the first key test; PXD raised its 2014 production growth to 16%-19% from 14%-19% and maintained its three-year compound annual growth rate at 16%-21%, warranting a double-digit multiple.


  149. Petrobras floatel signals production goals at risk, Bloomberg says

    03:45 PM ET · PBR

    • Petrobras’ (NYSE:PBR) chances of meeting output targets for the first time in a decade are fading as a rush to dispatch new oil platforms creates headaches miles offshore, according to a Bloomberg report.
    • A floating hotel anchored last month at the company’s P-62 platform symbolizes the predicament: The “floatel” is housing hundreds of workers sent to fix the new unit that’s already months behind schedule after a fire and emergency maintenance, and other new platforms at other fields have reported safety breaches and equipment delays from suppliers, slowing the output ramp-up.
    • Banco Bradesco analysts say they are less optimistic with PBR can meet production growth targets this year after failing to boost output in the first four months of the year due to maintenance and equipment delays.
    • Earlier: Petrobras unlikely to meet 2014 output goal.


  150. Cliffs’ shake-up presents buying opportunities for Canadian miners

    03:26 PM ET · CLF

    • The boardroom shake-up at Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF -1.9%) has raised the likelihood that its international assets – including the Bloom Lake iron ore mine in Quebec and the huge chromite deposit in Ontario’s “Ring of Fire” – will hit the market, creating some intriguing buying opportunities for Canadian miners in their own backyard.
    • Teck Resources (NYSE:TCK) has been eager to get into iron ore for many years, but has not found a good entry point, and Bloom Lake might be available at a bargain price; but it is a troubled asset that has lost money, and a buyer probably would need to double production to 14M metric tons/year at a cost of more than $1B.
    • In the Ring of Fire, junior miner Noront Resources (OTCPK:NOSOF) wants to buy CLF’s chromite deposit, but has cautioned that it would not pay anything close to $500M, which is roughly what CLF has spent in the area.


  151. Brazilian carriers tumble after Telefonica bids for GVT

    02:50 PM ET · TEF

    • Telefonica (TEF -3.1%) and Brazilian subsidiary Vivo (VIV -7.5%) are off sharply following news Telefonica has bid $9B to acquire Brazilian wireline carrier GVT from Vivendi (OTCPK:VIVHY +1.9%), with plans to merge it with Vivo’s mobile and wireline ops.
    • America Movil (AMX -2.5%), which had 68.8M Brazilian mobile subs and 34.5M wireline revenue-generating units at the end of Q2, is also off. As are Telecom Italia (TI -6%) and Brazilian unit TIM Participacoes (TSU -9.7%), and Oi (OIBR -6.7%) and merger partner Portugal Telecom (PT -5.1%).
    • Vivendi says it will study Telefonica’s bid, but insists for now that “none of its subsidiaries are for sale.” The conglomerate agreed to sell French carrier SFR in April.
    • A Vivo/GVT pairing could be a tougher rival for America Movil and Oi/PT, and would likely lead to a sale of Telefonica’s stake in TI (as sought by Brazilian regulators). As it is, Telefonica has announced plans to cut its TI stake (currently at 14.8%) through a convertible debt offering.
    • There’s speculation Vivendi could take Telefonica’s remaining TI stake as part of its payment for GVT, but Nomura has its doubts. “It’s hard to see why, from a Vivendi shareholder’s perspective, they would want to have a minority position in Telecom Italia.”


  152. Not looking good right now… Dow and NYSE hit the hardest it seems.


  153. Phil/TWX

    HI

    Since Fox and Rupert Murdoch are withdrawing their offer for TWX, any interest in playing for a short term bounce? Assuming it opens around $77.

    i do know that they were at $70 before the offer, and had been in a $62-$70 channel for months before. So, they are still at a premium, perhaps because  someone else is expected to buy them.


  154. I can't post the chart for all 35 indices that I am tracking but it's not looking good… Very few positive charts! Dollar, TLT and a couple of others. 


  155. Apple event for sept 9th according to techcrunch

    http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/05/apples-iphone-event-said-to-be-happening-sept-9/

    Do you think there will be a bounce for apple expecting new iPhone6 coming out?  Or is it baked in already?  Any thoughts Phil?

    Thanks.


  156. I've been reading the Ebola stories with fascination, because a friend of mine flew home from Uganda in 2007 unknowingly infected with an Ebola-like virus called Marburg.  She almost died, and it took her over a year to get an accurate diagnosis.  To this day she is represented on the CDC's map of world-wide Marburg outbreaks as the only bubble in America.

    http://www.indystar.com/story/opinion/2014/08/05/infection-shows-us-ready-ebola/13628965/


  157. Rookie:  I've been wondering about AAPL as well.  Apple has very good margins and a large cash pile, but hasn't had much respect since the iPhone 5C rollout.   I swapped my my iPhone for the Samsung Galaxy Note II at the time after seeing it. While many thought it was freakishly large, I judged that the large screen would be usable as an on'the-go internet machine, which turned out to be correct  -- very useful, and within a few months, it didn't seem so hypertrophied.

     

     But the Android apps are, for my money, rather generic and limited, and I very much doubt that Apple will not have learned from the experience.  I expect a pole vault over the current Samsung, et. al. offerings — with a corresponding uptick in Apple share value.  And I will be putting my money where my mouth is, although I'm now trying to ride out the selloff with short Euro and USO positions so I have something left to trade with before the gun goes off.  We shall see.


  158. From Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2014, 4:10:34 AM

    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Geoffrey Yu, a senior currency strategist at UBS AG, discusses currency flows in and out of European stocks in light of geopolitical risk in the region and a stronger U.S. economy.
    He speaks with Bloomberg’s Niki O’Callaghan in London. (Source: Bloomberg)

    European stocks slid for the fifth time in six days as a buildup of Russian armed forces along the border with Ukraine escalated tension, and a report showed German factory orders unexpectedly dropped. U.S. index futures were little changed, while Asian shares retreated.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tVdBcz

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  159. From Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2014, 5:53:22 AM

    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the German-based Ifo economic institute, discusses “longer-term implications” for the German economy from European sanctions against Russia.
    He speaks from Italy with Guy Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Italy returned to recession and German factory orders dropped the most since 2011 as political tensions and slowing global growth threaten the euro area’s recovery.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1sua2Id

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  160. From Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2014, 5:30:11 AM


    Standard Chartered is in talks with New York’s banking regulator over a potential $100 million fine at a time when Chief Executive Officer Peter Sands is under pressure to show he can navigate faltering economic expansion across Asia. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) said it faces
    further U.S. fines over the British bank’s flawed efforts to
    block money laundering and posted a 20 percent earnings decline
    on losses in Asia.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1suBSnI

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  161. From Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2014, 3:55:01 AM

    China’s government excluded Apple iPads and MacBook laptops from the list of products thatcan be bought with public money because of security concerns, according to government officials familiar with the matter. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    China’s government excluded Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPads and MacBook laptops from the list of products that can be bought with public money because of security concerns, according to government officials familiar with the matter.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tV9tZU

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  162. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 7:46:49 PM


    A passenger jet, operated by OAO Aeroflot-Russian Airlines, Russia’s biggest airline, takes off at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow. Aeroflot collects royalties from foreign carriers for Siberian overflights, receiving about $170 million in 2013, according to Irina Stupachenko, an analyst at Otkritie Capital in Moscow. Stupachenko said any restrictions would be “very negative” for the airline, for which the royalty payments are equal to 18 percent of full-year earnings. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

    European airlines are confronting
    possible disruptions in service to northern Asia as Russia
    considers curbing flights across Siberia to retaliate for
    sanctions imposed because of the Ukraine crisis.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1opowmz

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  163. From Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2014, 4:44:40 AM

    U.S. and European Union sanctions against Russia threaten to hasten a move away from the dollar that’s been stirring since the global financial crisis.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ATQjW8

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  164. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1s9dcCG

    Is the Selling in U.S. Stocks Just Getting Started?

    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — Janney Montgomery Scott’s Mark Luschini and Bloomberg’s Barry Ritholtz discuss the outlook for U.S. stocks with Trish Regan on “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  165. From Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2014, 4:51:16 AM


    Boris Johnson, mayor of London. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    London Mayor Boris Johnson said the U.K. could thrive outside the European Union and should be prepared to leave the bloc if Prime Minister David Cameron fails to win sufficient changes to the way it functions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1stMUbP

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  166. From Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2014, 3:42:27 AM


    Sprint and T-Mobile logos. Photos: David Paul Morris and Martin Divisek/Bloomberg

    Sprint Corp. (S) ended talks to acquire T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS), a person with knowledge of the matter said, as regulatory concerns outweighed the potential benefits of combining the third- and fourth-largest U.S. wireless carries.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zS4cCQ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  167. From Bloomberg, Aug 4, 2014, 6:19:57 PM


    Xavier Niel’s French wireless provider, Iliad SA, approached T-Mobile’s board with a $33-a-share bid for control of the company. Photographer: Eric Piermont/AFP via Getty Images

    T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) is becoming
    billionaire bait even though it’s the smallest national
    competitor in a market where the vast majority of the population
    already has a mobile phone.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1o6HdBh

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  168. From Bloomberg, Aug 6, 2014, 5:04:31 AM

    U.K. house prices rose at the fastest
    pace since December 2006 in the three months through July, as
    the strengthening economy and increasing confidence bolstered
    demand, according to Halifax.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/V0RKBa

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  169. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 11:28:28 PM

    Prices for dairy, New Zealand’s biggest export, are falling amid rising global production and waning demand from China, which built up inventories earlier in the year. Photographer: Brendon O’Hagan/Bloomberg

    Plunging dairy prices may squeeze New
    Zealand
    farm incomes and curb spending, adding to signs that
    economic growth will slow, economists said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1oppC1A

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  170. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 7:01:00 PM


    Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — There would be “no economic disaster” if the U.K. leaves the European Union as a result of a referendum, according to Stephen Booth, research director of Open Europe.
    He speaks with Mark Barton and Manus Cranny on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    U.K. shop prices fell by a record in
    July, indicating inflation pressure remains subdued as Bank of
    England
    officials begin their monthly policy meeting.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1s9EM2J

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  171. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 3:46:28 PM

    Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) — T-Mobile plans to turn down Iliad’s $15 billion deal. Cory Johnson reports on “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) plans to turn down Iliad SA (ILD)’s $15 billion deal proposal, two people with knowledge of the matter said, putting pressure on the French telecommunications company to raise its offer.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1s8Hi9p

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  172. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 4:09:00 PM


    Suing the president won’t make Congress work.

    I’m enjoying a fascinating conversation about the presidency this week. It was sparked by a Ross Douthat column on Sunday that charged President Barack Obama with unusual (potential) overreach in considering executive action on immigration. Douthat’s original (though shrill) column is worth a look, as is Brian Beutler’s response, and Douthat’s more sober follow-up blog post today. Ezra Klein’s musings today were especially thoughtful, and worth reading even if you want to skip the rest of it.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1s93110

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  173. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 3:35:29 PM


    The hot hand sometimes stays hot. 

    One time a very smart guy told me that the only stock he was really willing to make big bets on was Apple Inc. When I asked him why, he chuckled and said “It goes up!” That was in September 2012. The idea that a stock “goes up,” like some law of nature, is an example of a very important behavioral bias: trend-following.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/XBecTc

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  174. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 1:41:18 PM

    New York would do well to remember the lessons of another city’s devastating pension woes.

    The New York Times has a lengthy and dismaying article on the problems with New York City’s pensions:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1kDTi0r

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  175. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 11:03:22 AM

    A sign of things to come?

    Income inequality creates social tensions in two directions. From the point of view of the majority, it isn’t just a question of envy, although that’s real; it’s also the distortion in prices of important assets like houses in good school districts.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1v6FEXP

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  176. From Bloomberg, Aug 5, 2014, 10:59:19 AM

    Sensei of emerging markets?

    The leaders of some of the biggest developing nations — China, India, Turkey, South Africa — are increasingly acting like Russian President Vladimir Putin. It may be that democracy as the West understands it will have to compete with a new strain of authoritarianism, much as it did with communism in Soviet times.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1v6EOKG

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  177. Overseas

    06:00 AM ET

    • Japan -1.05%.
    • Hong Kong -0.26%.
    • China -0.11%.
    • India -0.93%.
    • London -1.03%.
    • Paris -1.14%.
    • Frankfurt -1.44%.


  178. Senate Democrats urge Obama to stop inversions

    04:15 AM ET

    • Three leading Democratic senators have urged President Obama to use executive orders to reduce or eliminate the the rising trend of U.S. corporations moving their tax domiciles overseas.
    • “Although we will continue to work toward a legislative solution to the problem, we urge you to use your authority to reduce or eliminate tax breaks associated with inversions,” says Senator Richard Durbin, Jack Reed and Elizabeth Warren in a letter to the president.
    • The Treasury Department is also exploring ways to use its power to deter tax inversions and avoid Congress if necessary.


  179. Tesla settles Chinese trademark dispute

    03:07 AM ET · TSLA

    • Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) says that it has “completely and amicably” resolved its trademark dispute with Chinese businessman Zhan Baosheng, paving the way for its expansion into the world’s largest auto market.
    • “Mr. Zhan has agreed to have the Chinese authorities complete the process of canceling the Tesla trademarks that he had registered or applied for, at no cost to Tesla,” says the electric carmaker.
    • Zhan registered the “Tesla” trademark and certain domain names before the automaker came to China. Tesla said in January that the issue had been resolved, but last month, Zhan moved to bring the company to court.


  180. China to penalize Audi, Chrysler over auto-parts price monopolies

    02:36 AM ET · VLKAY

    • China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) says it will penalize Audi (OTCQX:VLKAY) and Chrysler (OTCPK:FIATY) following its comprehensive antitrust investigation into the Chinese auto parts industry.
    • “The two companies do have monopolistic practices. They will be punished soon,” says NDRC secretary-general Li Pumin.
    • Many foreign automakers in China including Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:DDAIY) and Jaguar Land Rover (NYSE:TTM) have slashed their products and spare parts prices in recent weeks due to the NDRC’s probes.


  181. Morgan Stanley, Goldman latest to be probed over dark pools

    01:58 AM ET · MS

    • Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) have now been added to the long list of banks being investigated for their dark pools.
    • The probes started with a lawsuit from the New York Attorney General in June which accused Barclays of favoring high frequency traders over other investors within the pool.
    • Since then, investigations have spread to Deutsche Bank, UBS and Credit Suisse.


  182. Apple, Samsung end patent battles outside U.S.

    Yesterday, 10:48 PM ET · AAPL

    • Following untold numbers of lawsuits, injunction requests, court petitions, and billed legal hours, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF, OTC:SSNGY) have agreed to drop all suits against each other in Germany, the U.K., Japan, Australia, the Netherlands, France, South Korea, and Italy. The deal doesn’t involve any licensing agreement.
    • For now, the world’s biggest smartphone and tablet OEMs remain at odds in the U.S., but there are signs that battle is also winding down. In June, Apple and Samsung dropped their appeals of an ITC case that led to an injunction on older Samsung phones. The prior month, a CA jury awarded Apple $120M in an infringement suit against Samsung, much less than the $2B it sought.
    • Apple settled its patent dispute with Motorola Mobility in May in a deal that didn’t feature a cross-license, and agreed to work with Google on “some areas of patent reform.” A cross-licensing deal with HTC was struck in 2012.


  183. Marcellus natural gas production hits record high exceeding 15B cf/day

    Yesterday, 07:17 PM ET · CHK

    • Natural gas production in the Marcellus region exceeded 15B cf/day in July, the most productive period ever recorded there, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
    • Marcellus, located mostly in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, now accounts for nearly 40% of total U.S. shale gas production, and its rapid growth isn’t expected to ebb soon, the report says.
    • New wells in the region are expected to deliver another 600M cf/day, more than offsetting decline rates, for a net production increase of 247M cf/day.
    • Major Marcellus shale producers include CHK, RRC, RDS.A, RDS.B, TLM, APC, ATLS, COG, CVX, CNX, EQT, EOG, XOM, WPX, XCO, CRZO, SWN.


  184. Venezuela says it would sell U.S. refiner Citgo for the right offer

    Yesterday, 07:05 PM ET · XOM

    • Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA would sell North American unit Citgo if it receives a good offer, the country’s oil minister says.
    • Citgo has three U.S. refineries with combined capacity of ~750K bbl/day, but two of the refineries are geared to run heavy crudes from Venezuela while U.S. refining companies are trying to maximize profits by buying cheap domestic light crudes; Citgo’s refinery in Lemont, Ill., is the only one that does not process Venezuelan heavy crudes, and its location is not far from inexpensive Canadian crudes.
    • Separate from Citgo, PDVSA has a stake in the Chalmette refinery in Louisiana with Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and owns the Merey Sweeny unit of the Sweeny, Tex., refinery with Conoco (NYSE:COP) spinoff Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX); selling either likely would lead to legal tangles because of arbitration claims filed by XOM and COP over 2007 nationalizations of their projects in Venezuela.


  185. InterContinental Hotels EPS of $0.69

    Yesterday, 07:00 PM ET · IHG

    • InterContinental Hotels (NYSE:IHG): 1H EPS of $0.69
    • Revenue of $788M (+4.1% Y/Y)
    • Press Release


  186. Zillow hikes full-year guidance; Premier Agent ARPU keeps rising

    Yesterday, 06:30 PM ET · Z

    • Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) expects Q3 revenue of $87M-$88M and full-year revenue of $321M-$323M, above consensus estimates of $82.6M and $310.8M. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance has been hiked by $4M to $52M-$54M.
    • The figures don’t assume any revenue from the Trulia (NYSE:TRLA) merger, which is expected to close in 2015.
    • Q2 Marketplace revenue +72% Y/Y to $78.7M, an even growth rate with Q1. Within the segment, real estate revenue rose 83% to $56.1M, and mortgages revenue 13% to $6.6M.
    • Display (ad) revenue +53% Y/Y to $16.1M, after growing 62% in Q1.
    • Premier Agent subs rose by 3,850 Q/Q to 56.8K; 4,654 were added in Q1. ARPU rose to $320 from $286 in Q1 and $266 a year ago. Monthly unique users rose 49% to 81.1M, and mobile visits nearly doubled.
    • With marketing and R&D spend remaining aggressive, GAAP costs/expenses rose 56% Y/Y to $89.4M. Sales/marketing spend made up $48.1M of the total.
    • Zillow is nearly unchanged AH. Trulia is up 1.1%.
    • Q2 results, PR


  187. Take-Two -4.4% AH on light FQ2 guidance, Evolve delay

    Yesterday, 06:14 PM ET · TTWO

    • Take-Two (NASDAQ:TTWO) expects FQ2 revenue of $95M-$110M and EPS of -$0.60 to -$0.70, well below a consensus of $274.4M and $0.01. However, with a healthy fall lineup still on tap, FY15 (ends March ’15) guidance for revenue of $1.35B-$1.45B and EPS of $0.80-$1.05 is reiterated for now; consensus is at $1.43B and $1.03.
    • The launch date for anticipated first-person shooter Evolve has been pushed back to Feb. 10, 2015; the game was originally set to launch on Oct. 21.
    • NBA 2K14, GTA V, GTA Online, and Borderlands 2 were the biggest contributors to FQ1 sales. Digitally-delivered content sales grew 43% Y/Y to $106.4M (70% of total revenue). GAAP costs/expenses rose 6% to $104.5M.
    • NBA 2K15 is set to launch on Oct. 7, Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel on Oct. 14. GTA V arrives on the PS4 and Xbox One (previous) sometime this fall.
    • FQ1 results, PR


  188. Activision +3.5% AH on Q2 beat, strong Q3 sales outlook

    Yesterday, 05:55 PM ET · ATVI

    • Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) expects Q3 revenue of $975M and EPS of $0.11 vs. a consensus of $893.3M and $0.13. Full-year guidance (a little harder to project) is for revenue of $4.7B and EPS of $1.29, slightly below a consensus of $4.71B and $1.31.
    • Revenue from digital channels grew 26% Y/Y in Q2 to $481M, overshadowing a 41% drop in retail channel revenue to $111MM. Distribution channel revenue grew 78% to $66M.
    • Console revenue fell 18% Y/Y to $201M, but PC revenue rose 201% to $131M (boosted by Diablo III). Online rose 4% to $201M. Mobile/other remains a soft spot, declining 34% to $59M; EA had $120M in calendar Q2 mobile revenue.
    • The World of Warcraft sub base fell by 800K Q/Q to 6.8M; the decline was “disproportionately concentrated in the East.” That could be a negative for Chinese WoW partner NetEase (NASDAQ:NTES).
    • GAAP costs/expenses +6% to $660M. Activision notes Call of Duty: Ghosts remains the top-selling game on next-gen console in North America and Europe combined.
    • Q2 results, PR


  189. Frontier -2.4% AH on light subscriber figures

    Yesterday, 05:34 PM ET · FTR

    • Frontier (NASDAQ:FTR) is reiterating full-year guidance for free cash flow of $725M-$775M and capex of $575M-$625M. The forecasts exclude the AT&T deal.
    • Voice line disconnections led residential customers to fall by 31.8K Q/Q in Q2 to 2.762M, and business customers by 2.2K to 264.2K. Those figures compare with Q1 declines of 10K and 4.4K. Residential churn rose to 1.8% from 1.64% a year ago, ARPU rose by $0.58 to $59.64.
    • Broadband subs grew by 27.7K to 1.93M, and video subs by 3.6K to 394K; those numbers are down from Q1′s 37.2K and 5K.
    • Total voice revenue -8% Y/Y to $471.6M, data/Internet revenue -1% to $462.7M, other customer revenue +12% to $79M, switched access/subsidy revenue -3% to $134M.
    • Free cash flow was $215.9M vs. $235.1M in Q1 and $175.9M a year ago. Frontier’s Q2 dividend payout ratio was 46%, up from Q1′s 43% but down from 57% a year ago.
    • Q2 results, PR


  190. Crude oil prices fall to six-month lows on refinery outlook

    Yesterday, 05:28 PM ET · CVI

    • West Texas crude prices tumbled to six-month lows today while Brent fell to the lowest level this year amid speculation that refineries will slow operations, reducing crude demand.
    • WTI for Sept. delivery fell $0.91 (0.9%) to close at $97.38/bbl on the New York Merc, the lowest settlement since Feb. 5, while Brent for Sept. settlement fell $0.80 (0.8%) to $104.61/bbl on the ICE Futures, the lowest close since Nov. 7.
    • Prices have been falling since the July 31 announcement that CVR Refining’s (CVI, CVRR) 115K bbl/day Coffeyville refinery that gets oil from Cushing, Okla., may be offline for most of August after a fire.
    • “The loss of $10 in value in six weeks can’t be explained by weak fundamentals alone,” says a broker, adding “Until there’s a major event, prices will be under downward pressure.”
    • ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, SCO, BNO, DTO, DBO, CRUD, USL, UWTI, DWTI, DNO, SZO, OLO, OLEM, TWTI


  191. Wednesday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET


  192. Good morning!  

    Check this out – all hitting the S1 lines so far:

    It's certainly worth playing for a small bounce at 16,275 (/YM), 1,905 (/ES), 3,850 (/NQ) and, of course, 1,110 on /TF.  Just looking for very quick bounces, the trend is still DOWN!

    The Dollar jammed up to 81.77 and that's not sustainable (short-term) so hopefully we get a little bounce – plus we are oversold again

    We got hit with a lot of things today – Putin getting more aggressive at Ukraine (I think he's trying to drive oil back up), S and TMUS unwinding, NWS and TWX unwinding and Greece and Italy's economies are looking like crap (and now we know why Spain and Italy led us down yesterday):

    Why an aggressive Russia scares markets most

    4 Million Fewer Jobs: How The BLS Massively Overestimated US Job Creation

    Federal Reserve tells banks: you're not prepared and you could cause another crisisUS central bank tells lenders, including Barclays, that they risk plunging world into a fresh financial crisis.

     

    Goldman's "Early Warning Signals"

    Why Student Loans Are Crushing The Housing Recovery In 1 Chart

    Trading Volume Sinks: Its Not Just Equities

     

    BlackRock(BLK) sounds alarm over IPO qualityThe world’s largest institutional investor has sounded the alarm over the quality of European IPOs as hedge funds increase their bets against private equity-backed flotations, after the market for companies going public was soured by a string of high-profile failures.

     

    NY attorney general probes Morgan Stanley(MS), Goldman(GS) 'dark pools' -FoxU.S. banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group are being investigated by New York's attorney general as part of a probe into alternative trading systems known as "dark pools," according to Fox Business Network. ?

    Morgan Stanley(MS) says California AG may sue over mortgage bondsCalifornia's attorney general may sue Morgan Stanley over money-losing mortgage bonds that the state's biggest public pension fund purchased in a $1.3 billion deal before the financial crisis, the bank said in a securities filing on Tuesday.

     

     


  193. TWX/Maya – Could be an interesting play.  Good logic.  Let's keep an eye on them.

    AAPL/Rookie – I think good news is priced into AAPL at $100, now they need to not disappoint.  

    Ebola/Rdn – While it is a real and terrible thing, the overreaction by people here is silly.  Daily Show was making fun of it last night.  

    AAPL/ZZ – The usage and app revenue stats tell it all, IPhones engage people and those people spend money.  That's not the case on Android where FREE is the most popular app category.   So who do people end up developing for?   Rich people who want huge phones is the only category AAPL is missing at the moment (that they care about).  In theory, that will now be fixed.