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Testy Tuesday – Dressing the Windows at our Bounce Lines

First, the big news:

EBAY has finally agreed to spin off PayPal and that's going to give us a nice boost in our Income Portfolio (which we fortunately just adjusted more aggressive yesterday) and EBAY has been on our Buy List (Members Only) since 5/20, when they were testing $50 and, as I said to our Members when I predicted an earnings beat in July:

Paypal, Paypal and Paypal.  They should beat the .68 expectations (.63 last year) and all of last year they traded in the $50s, so why should they be below it now when they are making $3 a year (p/e 16.7)?  Compared to the rest of the market, this thing is a real bargain!  

They beat by a penny and, as you can see from the chart, that was enough to kick them up 10% and we recently got a nice re-entry at $50, when we took advantage of the spike down to sell more 2016 $50 puts for $5.50 which were up 15% at $4.80 at yesterday's close – not bad for a month's work and they should be up 30% by the end of today!  

Today we will see an all-out effort to keep the markets afloat so the books on Q3 can be spun positive by the Banksters, who have Trillions of Dollars riding on the outcome.  

Of course, we KNOW that no Bankster would ever attempt to manipulate the Market, or LIBOR, or Currencies, or Ratings…  Well, not if they knew for a fact they would get caught AND the punishment was more than a slap on the wrist, anyway.  Thank goodness, that never happens.

As you can see from our Big Chart, the S&P came to a rest right on the 50 dma at 1,977 so that's the do or die line for the day while it's 4,495 on the Nasdaq.  On the Dow we want to see 17,100 taken back and the NYSE needs to hold 10,750 while the poor, beleagured Russell just needs to hold that 1,110 line.  Officially, our bounce lines remain:

  • Dow - 17,000 (weak) and 17,100 (strong) 
  • S&P  1,975 (weak) and 1,985 (strong)
  • Nasdaq 4,475 (weak) and 4,500 (strong)
  • NYSE  10,760 (weak) and 10,820 (strong)
  • Russell 1,125 (weak) and 1,140 (strong)

Since we lost ground from yesterday (S&P & NYSE were green, now on the line) those weak bounce lines are no longer good enough today and we must start seeing some strong bounce lines re-taken or we'll have to get more bearish.  Even based on yesterday's performance, we added additional hedges to our Short-Term Portfolio as well as the Income Portfolio

Ahead of the open, the Euro went into free-fall this morning with a plunge to $1.257 and that sent the Dollar flying to 86.30 and the Yen to 109.85.  If you like currency trading, you can play for a retrace at 110, which means the Dollar will pause below 86.50 and that run was from 83 so 3.5 in September means we expect a retrace of 0.75 (weak) to 85.75 and, possibly, a strong retrace back to the 85 line.  

The Yen, meanwhile, should drop back to 109 (weak) and 108 (strong) and that means it's game on for the /NKD shorts (16,250) and EWJ can be played short at $12 with Oct $12 puts at 0.20.

Gold, as you can see, was also crushed back to $1,200 on the Dollar strength and we called a long on /YG in our Live Member Chat Room earlier this morning and we discussed our ABX play with our $1,200 gold entry target in yesterday morning's post, so you are just in time to catch up.  cheeky   

Today we have a Live Trading Webinar at 1pm (Members Only) and we'll see what kind of opportunities are available to us this afternoon and there should be plenty of opportunities to cherry-pick some gold miners as GDX (miners ETF) is looking very oversold in general (thanks ChartFreak):

There's an initial reaction to weakening Global currencies that sends the Dollar up and gold down but then the reality of weak Global currencies begins to set in and people in those devaluing markets begin to put more of their wealth into gold to hedge against the loss of buying power they are experiencing in their own currencies.  

Also, it's very possible that this entire move up in the Dollar is nothing but leverage for window-dressers, who can tank the Dollar again later today – when they need something to goose the indexes into the close.  That makes both gold ($1,205 on /YG) and silver ($17.15 on /SI) both excellent long plays this morning (with tight stops below).

See you at the Webinar!  

 


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  1. Good Morning everyone! Today's webinar link is:

    http://bit.ly/PSW093014

    Event Code (for the mobile app): 294 663 908


  2. Cramer bashing Ebay?!


  3. Cramer is in total idiot mode today.  He is now saying how Obama should put sanctions on China.


  4. Good morning! 

    EBAY/Jasu – Without PayPal, I'd bash them too but Cramer will say anything if he's caught short on something.  You can tell he rushed to the studio to stop the gains this morning.  Yet no arrests will be made…  


  5. Oil Lines

    R3 – 97.58
    R2 – 96.22
    R1 – 95.46
    PP – 94.10
    S1 – 93.34
    S2 – 91.98
    S3 – 91.22


  6. Good Morning!


  7. Nice spikes back up on gold and silver but might be just people reading the post buying so don't get too greedy!   Dollar still 86.225.  Oil $94.32 and only went up into the 9am open. 


  8. I guess we can still see them in zoos:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2774395/HALF-world-s-wild-animals-disappeared-40-years-Humankind-held-responsible-familiar-species-lose-battle-survival.html

    From the forest elephants of Africa, to India’s tigers and even our own great white sharks, wildlife is losing the battle for survival all over the world.
    Human activity has been blamed for the plummet in numbers, as the United States reports dwindling populations of bumblebees and polar bears – and one of the world's biggest decreases in sealife.
    Our ever-growing need for land and resources, coupled with hunting and poaching, has halved the number of wild animals in world in just 40 years, according to a shocking report.
    The Living Planet Report by WWF and the Zoological Society of London has found that wildlife populations around the globe have declined by 52 per cent on average since 1970.


  9. CHINA!

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-30/no-shanghai-can-t-replace-hong-kong

    Those asking what's next for China's "one country, two systems" doctrine are pondering the wrong question. This pipedream, one that seduced Margaret Thatcher into returning Britain's former colony to Beijing, is unraveling before our eyes. China's decision to renege on its promise to let Hong Kong pick its own leader by 2017 comes as political frustrations rise in Macau as well. One can only imagine how darkly Taiwanese now view the prospect of the mainland's embrace.

    No, the real question is where Xi is taking the world's most populous nation. Rather than adapt to international standards, China is becoming even more of a black box. Meanwhile, investors can only fret about runaway debt, a growing shadow-banking system and official corruption. Xi's policies smack more of fear than strength. In the long run, it's China that will pay the price for them.


  10. Sold the other 1/2 of ANET & AMBA.  Out for now.



  11. Ouch, not off to a good start this morning – glad we added those SQQQs!  

    As expected, Dollar being taken down (86.13) to mask the selling, so it's worse than it looks.  

    Chicago PMI down 5%+ from 64.3 to 60.5 and well below 62 consensus.  

    Not that Chicago PMI is a big deal but it does confirm weakness we've been seeing and Pending Home Sales were down 1% yesterday and Case-Shiller a bit below expectations too:

    Retail Sales LOOK good but margins ARE bad:

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales: +4.3% Y/Y vs. +3.7% last week.
    • -0.5% M/M vs. -0.6% last week.
    • Sales picked up but the strength was fueled by deep discounting which held down profit margins.

    ICSC Retail Store Sales: +3.6% Y/Y vs. +4.1% last week.

    • -0.2% W/W vs. +0.1% last week.
    • Sales slowed in the last week due to unseasonable weather that did not raise demand for seasonal goods.

    Here's the really bad news of the day:

    • Japan's economy took another big hit in August, with figures displaying annual household spending plunging 4.7%, falling for a fifth straight month. Trade ministry data also shows industrial output dropping 1.5% in August.
    • The effects of the April 1 sales tax hike to 8% from 5% continue to take a toll on the country's economy, as it shoots for its 2% inflation goal by around mid-2015.
    • The Bank of Japan is in no mood to deploy additional easing anytime soon, although a weakening yen will make that target very difficult.

    Great for the Nikkei shorts!  


  12. Think it's a good sign that BABA is rallying.


  13. Phil: Sorry if you went over this analysis before, I have a 38/45 Jan 2015 Yahoo bull call spread that is, so far,  winning better than the 40/50 Jan 2016 bull call spread

    Also have Apple 100/120 Jan '16-- and  I've seen you recommend lately an Apple bull call spreads with the long leg at 90. 

    If the market has started to turn down is it better to roll these BCS down ? — Does it protect more on the downside? 


  14. Oh no, bad Consumer Confidence numbers now:

    • Dow +0.01% to 17,073.00. S&P +0.07% to 1,979.20. Nasdaq +0.25% to 4,517.24.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.29%. 10-yr -0.18%. 5-yr -0.1%.
    • Commodities: Crude -0.39% to $94.20. Gold -0.52% to $1,212.50.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.39% vs. dollar. Yen -0.52%. Pound -0.29%.
    • Dow -0.15%.
    • 10-yr -0.09%.
    • Euro -0.59% vs. dollar.
    • Crude -0.93% to $93.69.
    • Gold -0.13% to $1,217.20.

    Animals/StJ – Also God's will, I'm sure…  But, given that logic, then why did Noah bother saving them?

    China/StJ – I think the mainland wants their puppets in Hong Kong because they need to funnel money through it without questions.  It's not something they are likely to compromise on or people may discover what a mess China's Banks are in.  

    • Protestors continued blocking many central roads and highways in Hong Kong, as pro-democracy demonstrations extended into a fifth day.
    • Leaders have now issued a warning that the standoff would escalate in coming days if their demands aren’t met.
    • The number of protestors have swelled into the tens of thousands, calling for Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying to resign and for the government in Beijing to drop plans to control the 2017 leadership election.
    • The Hang Seng Index dipped again today, closing down 1.3%.

    Putin/1020 – Sadly, he's low on our list of concerns at the moment.  

    Russia says Ukraine must pay $3.9B to resume gas supplies

    • Ukraine must pay $3.9B if it wants Russia to resume supplies of natural gas – $1.9B as prepayment for new deliveries and $2B for already supplied gas – Russia's energy minister says.
    • The two countries held talks last week where they tentatively agreed that Ukraine would pay $3.1B by the end of the year in return for the resumption of some gas deliveries for the winter months.
    • Ukraine has said it was ready to pay Russia for previous deliveries if Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) would not raise the gas price for 2014 from the level agreed in 2013 between Russia's Putin and former Ukraine PM Yanukovych.

    Molycorp says expanded leach system is placed into service at Mountain Pass

    • Molycorp (NYSE:MCP) +2.4% premarket on news that its expanded leach system has been placed into service at its Mountain Pass, Calif., facility.
    • MCP says the system expansion addresses one of the major production bottlenecks at Mountain Pass and is expected to boost rare earth production and lower operating costs once it is fully operational and sufficient supplies of hydrochloric acid are available.
    • While onsite production and market availability of HCl are expected to improve in Q4 and beyond, Q3 2014 rare earth production at Mountain Pass is not expected to exceed Q1 2014 levels.
    • Mosaic (MOS -2.1%) opens lower after saying it is reducing phosphate fertilizer production because of high sulfur and ammonia prices.
    • MOS says the curtailment will result in lower operating rates at its mines and concentrates plants but does not expect any employee layoffs.
    • MOS also says it expects Q3 potash and phosphate sales volumes to be at or near the lower end of previous guidance, due to weather-driven production outages in potash and by timing of shipments in phosphates; prices are expected to remain near the middle of guidance.
    • POT -1.1%, AGU -0.9%, CF -0.2%, RNF -0.8%, RTK -1.7%.

    GoPro +2.7%; Citi ups target to $94, praises new cameras

    • GoPro's (NASDAQ:GPROnew cameras will likely yield "upward pressure" for the company's ASPs, thinks Citi's Jeremy David. His target has been upped by $24 to $94, but a Neutral rating is maintained.
    • David expects nearly half of all high-end GoPro buyers to upgrade to the 4K-capable, $499, Hero4 Black ($100 more expensive than the Hero3 Black), more than offsetting the ASP pressure produced by the no-frills, $129, Hero. He now forecasts flat Q4 ASP growth, and 1% 2015 growth.
    • Talks with management lead David to think GoPro is unlikely to "aggressively" sell the Hero. "We believe GoPro's $130 capture device was introduced to make it harder for new competitors to enter the market and existing competitors to grab share."
    • He sees the total action camera market amounting to only 10M units in 2015, and 12M in 2016. By contrast, David thinks GoPro will ultimately have to ship 20M devices annually to justify its current valuation.
    • FBN and Piper hiked their targets yesterday; the former forecast strong Hero4 Black sales, and predicted the Hero will help GoPro "better cater to the masses."

    DreamWorks Animation peels off 9.5% as Softbank interest fades

    • Shares of DreamWorks Animation (NASDAQ:DWA) take another leg down after morereports surface indicating Softbank's interest in an acquisition has cooled off.
    • What to watch: Many media analysts think a DWA acquisition is still on the horizon even if Softbank takes a pass, although they note the board may have to come off its lofty acquisiton price expectation.
    • DWA -9.5% premarket
    • Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) signs a deal with The Weinstein Co. for its first original movie.
    • Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: The Green Legend is scheduled for a August 28, 2015 release at IMAX theaters and on Netflix's streaming service.
    • The source material for the film is Crane-Iron Pentalogy by Wang Du Lu which also spawned Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon in 2000.
    • What to watch: The decision by the company to premiere a movie pits it in direct confrontation with movie theater chains (RGCCKECCNKAMC) for the first time.
    • NFLX +0.2% premarket

     

    • The decision by Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) to offer feature films at select IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) theaters will present it with a "terrific opportunity," says IMAX Entertainment CEO Greg Foster.
    • The plan for simultaneous IMAX-Netflix releases in China and U.S. has been tapped to be a market disrupter by some film insiders, although without getting a look at the financial nuts and bolts of the revenue split they are hesitant to label winners and losers from the deal.
    • The partnership will be small in scale at first with its success likely to be highly-contingent on the quality of Weinstein films feeding the initiative.
    • Cowen Research says the trend of sluggish TV ratings has continued through Q3.
    • The investment firm estimates broadcast viewers in the key 18-49 year old demographic fell 8% Y/Y (ex. Thursday night football) last week on a live+3 reading.
    • There's growing concern in the sector that more advertising dollars will float to digital channels due to the ratings slump.
    • The FCC is considering new regulations for companies looking to offer an over-the-top online video service, according to The Wall Street Journal.
    • Rules governing OTT services could make it harder for content providers and distributors to carve out smaller deals for programming.
    • Traditional streamers such as Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Hulu (DISCMCSAFOXA), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) that offer their content on-demand should be outside the regulatory purview of the FCC on the OTT startups.
    • Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH), Sony (NYSE:SNE), and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) are the furthest along in the race for a trimmed-down online video package aimed largely at cord-cutters and cord-nevers.

  15. Amazing how great technology is. I’m in the air on a flight now, I’ve got my iPad logged in here with a few tabs and my father in law’s live streaming CNBC…at 30000 feet!! Very cool…


  16. Needed balls of steel to do nothing but watch GPRO this morning having the 90 calls.  Might get the reversal after all today, then decide to take profits or wait for a further sell off tomorrow.


  17. BABA/Albo – They have options now.  

    YHOO/Sn0 – That's normal because the Jans expire sooner and have less premium.  On the 2016s, sure I'd roll the long leg down (0.50 or less per $1) if the stocks pull back but it won't make sense on the Jan spread, because you'll run out of time.  You could cash out the Jan $38s ($4.70) and pick up 2017 $35/47 bull call spreads for $6 and those would be $10 in the money before you have to pay back the short callers (or roll them along, of course).  

    JNS coming down nicely.  

    Technology/Jeff – Is that GOGO?  

    GPRO/Rustle – The new cameras are out, that should be the end of it or maybe a bit more as analysts gush over the great cameras.  


  18. Citigroup joined the sheeple and raised PT on GPRO this morning to 94 after raising them to $70 just 3 weeks ago on 9/11


  19. $93.50 held on oil (/CL), nice $1,000 play for the morning!  /NKD 16,150 was up a neat 100 ($500 per contract) and /SI hit $17.40 (up 0.15 from first attempt and 0.25 from 2nd at $50 per penny, per contract), and /YG hit $1,220 for a $15 gain ($498 per contract).  Now it's time to watch and wait again and see how this bounce looks. 


  20. Phil/Gogo

    Yes, I'm flying southwest. It's stalling a bit and taking some time to load occasionally, but overall quite good. Cost 8 bucks for the flight. Messaging, live tv, web access all included…pretty good overall. 


  21. Phil;  On the metals what contract month are you trading?


  22. GOGO/Jeff – I find they lose signal when making turns or storms but usually pretty good.  

    Metals/Options – November contracts.  I try to stick with whatever TOS is using as the front-month.

    Dollar back to 86 – what a manipulated joke!  


  23. Annoucing the PhilStockWorld Conference – November 9-10, 2014 – Caesar's in Las Vegas

    Sign up here: http://www.philstockworld.com/nov2014-conference-signup/

    I will post all conference information (schedule, room rates, etc.) on that page as I get it!

    You can email me any questions at: admin (AT) philstockworld (DOT) com

    Stay tuned!


  24. Phil -BABA options.  Thanks, I had forgotten that they were going to list this week.  Might be an interesting put sale on a pullback.


  25. Yeah, struggling a bit to load google and yahoo… But mysteriously PSW loads right up!!


  26. Ford 2016 $13 puts at $1?


  27. I've tried to use Gogo 3 times & never got service. The last time I was on an AA flight to the Carribean & put in my flight info, paid the 16 bucks & never connected. Opps they said, we don't cover those flights!!!~ I've tried Detroit, & Miami too with no luck. They give you a "credit" that is good for 6 weeks-never again. I now book the quickest flights available & doing more weekend legs.


  28. However, more airlines are offering connections free if you go first class & there is definitely a difference in ease of flying, baggage-you name it.


  29. pirate:  Same experience.  More scam than travel service, I only wasted 15 min. figuring that out.  Nice if you want to fly from Tucson to Beloit with three stops.  Real airlines will do as well or much better in terms of flight options if you have a decent travel agent. 


  30. Vegas Baby!!!  

    You guys will be very happy to know that we've got a block of rooms in the Nobu Hotel (part of Caesar's) which was so nice I almost moved in permanently!  Don't cheap out on these rooms – the rooms are great and the room service is incredible!  

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  31. Zero-A good short on Gogo? Most people I know don't bother so…..when's earnings?


  32. Oops, that didn't past so well from the web page, but you get the idea.  

    PSW/Jeff – Maybe just that we're less graphics-intense but GOOG's main page should be fast.  

    F/Deano – Good call, net $12 is a great entry for them.  

    GOGO/Pirate – If it didn't work, I'd call my CC company and tell them to reverse the charge – screw their credit.  

    Travel/Pirate, ZZ – Virgin America has flights from NY to Vegas – they're a good airline.  

    Wow, oil down another $1 to $92.50 again – what a joke that run-up was!  

    Bad breakdown if they can't hold $92.50


  33. I’m much less enthused now, maybe the altitude slows this down. Can’t load much of anything easily now, I’ve been trying to get google main page up and it just won’t load.

    Pirate, maybe you’re on to something. It’s my first time using this, not sure if I’ll be back again until I hear something’s improved/different about it.


  34. Came across this from Raymond James on GDP.   S&P also upgraded to hold last week.  S & P has a 12-month target price of $18.  Stock is speculative, but might be worth a shot.

    Puts have big premiums.   Started a small position boy selling a few MAR $12.50 puts for $1.91 for a $10.59 entry if exercised.

    One stock from Raymond James’ research universe that has been particularly punished has been Goodrich Petroleum (GDP/$15.33/Strong Buy), which has declined significantly from its recent high, prompting our fundamental analyst John Freeman to write the following in his company comment of September 2, 2014:
    We reiterate our Strong Buy on Goodrich as the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) picture becomes clearer with each subsequent well result. Our rating upgrade last month was predicated on our belief that the core of the play had been defined following a series of step-out wells. … The upcoming Bates 25-24H-1 well can potentially expand the acreage credit we are giving Goodrich as that well is being drilled right at the 11,000’ depth horizon (natural fracturing will be better, but the shale will be thinner than what is present in the core). The other three upcoming well results are all being drilled right in the fairway of the play. These wells should provide further support for the core of the play (and where all of our current NAV value lies).

    09/22/14 03:24 pm ET … S&P CAPITAL IQ UPGRADES
    VIEW ON SHARES OF GOODRICH PETROLEUM
    TO HOLD FROM SELL (GDP 15.2***):
    Our upgrade is based on valuation, with shares
    down about 40% in the last four months.


  35. Phil

    Good morning to you

    I have some AAPL short $80 Jan 15 puts that are 82% in the money.

    Hang on or cash out and resell something else? If so, what?

    Also, I am down on CLF from about $14- sold calls on some but can sell more on the rest of stock that is uncovered- what do you think of selling the Jan 2016 $10 calls- but for only $2.60 or so???


  36. GDP – Bearish engulfing candle appears to be forming.


  37. Phil: I have the ABX Jan15 13/20 Bull Call for net 4.60. What do you think about dumping the Jan15 13 call and rolling to the Jan16 13/20  for a 0.15 debit?


  38. GOGO/Jeff – Well, if it doesn't work well, that's really going to impact future sales – especially as your main users will be repeat business travelers.  

    $91.50 on oil – Wow!  

    GDP/Albo – No clue on them, too much time to research all these little E&P companies.  

    AAPL/Maya – Depends if you need the margin more than the 0.35.  For the same margin though, you can sell the 2017 $80 puts for $7.65 and that's 9 quarters so about 0.85 of decay during the same time you'd wait to get the last 0.35 off your short Jans.   On CLF, see yesterday's Income Portfolio adjustment:

    • CLF – Net $9.68/11.34 @ $10.57 on 1,000 shares.  What a train wreck these guys are!  Showing a massive $8,000 loss in the portfolio on these, even though they are not, in fact, out of the money.  Here we do have 2017, so let's rol the 10 2016 $13 puts ($5.10) to the 2017 $12 puts ($5.10) even and we'll roll the short 2016 $13 calls ($1.65) out to the 2017 $15 calls ($1.40), so we'll spend net .25 to widen the spread by $2 and lower our puts by $1.  

    ABX/Jbur – Also one that we adjusted for the Income Portfolio yesterday:

    ABX – 10 2016 $15/22 bull call spreads with short $17 puts at net 0.10 @ $15.10 so right on the money.  It's a small entry and we like ABX so we'll invest $1.85 to roll the 2016 $15 calls ($2.15) to the 2017 $13 calls ($4) and we'll buy back the 2016 $22 calls for $0.50 but there's not enough money to make the puts worth rolling.  

    Those are the ones I like for rolls.  

    And, meanwhile, don't anyone say they didn't have all the time in the World to add that SQQQ play:

    If, however, you are not using the STP to short this portfolio, you do need to have some sort of short position to cover against a major downturn.  Though we are not tech-heavy here, I would like the SQQQ Jan $33/40 bull call spread at $2.25 and we already sold AAPL puts so no worries.  $5,500 of these (20) pays back $14,000 if the Nasdaq dips (and SQQQ is $36 now, so $3 in the money) – so let's add those specifically to this portfolio and 40 to the Short-Term Porfolio for $11,000 but not if you already have the STP and the Income Portfolio, then just those in the STP would be sufficient to cover the Income Portfolio! 


  39. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 11:15:27 AM

    U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard
    & Poor’s 500 Index poised for a seventh quarterly gain, as a
    rally in EBay Inc. amid corporate mergers overshadowed a drop in
    consumer confidence.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1otv4C9

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  40. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 11:15:50 AM

    Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Scarlet Fu explores the history behind Hong Kong and Beijing relationship as protestors take to the streets to demand free and open elections in 2017. She speaks on “Market Makers.”

    Pro-democracy protests swelled in Hong Kong on the eve of a two-day holiday that may bring record numbers to rallies spreading throughout the city as organizers pressed demands for free elections.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1sKTyhu

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  41. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 11:21:44 AM

    The National Football League, already struggling with off-field woes, took another hit as regulators eliminated a 40-year-old federal rule enforcing television blackouts of games when stadiums don’t sell out.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1vrXK2L

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  42. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 10:43:01 AM


    EBay Inc.’s headquarters in San Jose, Calif. on Dec. 6, 2013. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    EBay Inc. is spinning off its PayPal division, heeding demands by activist shareholder Carl Icahn and giving the business independence it can use to contend with rising competition from Apple Inc. and Google Inc.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1vsHIaD

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  43. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1yxRv2N

    Home Prices See Slowest Climb in Nearly Two Years

    Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Michael McKee breaks down the numbers in July’s S&P/Case-Shiller index as property values climb by 6.7 percent, the smallest increase since November 2012. He speaks on “In The Loop.”

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  44. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 10:59:02 AM

    New York Mayor Bill de Blasio will
    sign an executive order requiring employers to pay workers as
    much as $13.13 an hour on economic-development projects that
    receive more than $1 million in city subsidies, according to a
    person with knowledge of his plans.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DTAdxr

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  45. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 10:50:21 AM


    Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, talks about the Confidence Board’s consumer confidence index for September. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly declined in September to a four-month low as Americans’ views of the labor market deteriorated.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1vrOCLk

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  46. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 10:46:32 AM

    Withdrawals from a Pacific Investment Management Co. exchange-traded fund that was run by Bill Grossslowed yesterday after record redemptions the day the star trader left.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1vsXeTP

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  47. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 9:57:29 AM


    A Bentley Mulsanne automobile, produced by Bentley Motors Ltd., a luxury unit of Volkswagen AG (VW), stands on display in Geneva. Photographer: Gianluca Colla/Bloomberg

    Self-driving vehicles and smartphone integration will be among the top features at Europe’s biggest auto show this year, as executives focus on something that’s become increasingly hard to come by: buyers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1oryeXe

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  48. From Bloomberg, Sep 29, 2014, 7:05:00 PM

    Britain’s strengthening economic
    recovery has reached the limit of how much it can lift the mood
    of consumers, according to GfK NOP Ltd.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1DT1AHK

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  49. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 6:14:24 AM


    The data may also bolster the argument of Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne that his deficit-cutting plan was the best one for the economy after the recession. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    The U.K. economy grew faster than
    estimated in the second quarter, extending a recovery that’s
    been more robust than previously thought.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1vsflcL

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  50. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 10:14:09 AM


    Graffiti art of Yahoo! Inc. applications. Photographer: Tony Avelar/Bloomberg

    Yahoo! Inc. shareholders are inching closer to a potential $11 billion windfall.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1orPHyK

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  51. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 2:57:00 AM


    Prices slipped 0.2 percent from August to an average 188,374 pounds ($306,700), Nationwide Building Society said today in an e-mailed statement. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    U.K. house prices fell for the
    first time in almost a year and a half in September, adding to
    evidence the property market is softening.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1xw3CfA

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  52. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 9:00:00 AM

    The International Monetary Fund is
    urging countries to boost infrastructure spending to strengthen
    the sluggish global recovery.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1vt3Dyk

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  53. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 7:46:51 AM

    What happens next?

    Will the tensions in Hong Kong be the straw that breaks the global economy’s back? That question is on many investors’ minds as they watch the Chinese government’s response to one of the biggest sociopolitical challenges it has faced in recent years. The answer is far from straightforward.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1DV1AHq

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  54. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 9:03:20 AM


    Less of these with a carbon tax? The evidence says no.

    Where they’ve been tried, the evidence shows, well-designed carbon taxes have succeeded in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. But that doesn’t necessarily end the debate over their effects — nor should it. The next question is whether that success is bought at the expense of jobs and incomes.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1sLJViu

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  55. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 9:51:29 AM


    Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Mark Hopkins, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, Stéfane Marion, chief economist and strategist at National Bank of Canada and National Bank Financial, and Brian Miron, portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, participate in a panel discussion about the outlook for Canada’s economy and central bank policy.
    Bloomberg’s Theo Argitis moderates the panel at the Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference in New York. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Canada’s gross domestic product was
    little changed in July as a drop in oil and gas production
    offset gains in manufacturing.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1vsXH8F

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  56. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 8:48:41 AM


    This won’t cost more.<br>

    The Washington Post Style section recently declared that a new Brookings Institution report has “upended health-care research.” The reality is more complex, and the new paper has not fundamentally changed anything.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1sLJ15I

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  57. Phil,

    Painting pretty QE numbers seems like done by the wayside? Market has been slowly drifting lower after Euro Close……next steps to discuss at the seminar!


  58. Yeah, if they can't even get a bull run into EOQ, I have serious concerns about the rest of the week.  I think people are taking advantage of the Window dressers today to dump into their pump but this is causing some bad technical damage.  


  59. Let me help everyone by jumping in here and shorting /TF……dollars to donuts it reverses! See just a hint of shorting and /TF reversed! 


  60. Of course it's going to bounce at 1,100, you should never chase a short like that, Jasu.  Nas is the laggard with /NQ still 4,044 – if the RUT fails 1,100 and /YM is still under 17,000 and /ES fails 1,965, it will make a nice short for the next leg but, on the whole, more likely we bounce now that the big seller seems to be done.  

    Time for the Webcast (10 mins). 


  61. Phil,

      On CLF, I have -4 Jan15 $25 puts (net $18), -4 Jan15 $18 puts (net $13.80), 3 Jan16 13/18 bull call spreads (net $4.11), and -3 Jan16 $18 puts (net $13.90). I'm resigned to accepting the $25 puts and working from there, but am unsure about what to do for the rest? Move to the Jan17 $10 puts and 8/15 bull call?


  62. If XCO is any indication, I would not put more money into E&P's here.


  63. Phil // Stuff
    SQQQ > Yes, I did heed the sirens. I have a layered SQQQ position on most ports
    ( Nov 35/40, Jan 35/50 ) – I see you went ITM with the 33's. Should I adjust ?

    /TF > Just got bitch slapped down to 1102 support. I cashed my TZAs – would you reload before close ?

    GOGO > We do have a Feb $18/24 BLCS. I was just reading a white paper on these guys. They're using an ATG ( air to ground ) tech that is years ahead of anybody else. They've also locked up contracts with most major players ( Delta, American, US Air, Alaska, etc – stats have them in 80% of American commercial craft. Why aren't we more bullish on them. This sounds like a contained monopoly.

    HOTLIST > I've doing a lot of reading this week and would like your opinion on a number of companies. I have a short list and I'll try to post it by EOD. Would love your thoughts for PSW.


  64. Rj_Jarboe -XCO still falling like a rock (or a knife).    I don't own the stock, but am loaded to the gills with a  Jan 16 short $3 put position.  Sold some more for .70.


  65. Phil // Research  ( for after hours )

    STEV ( $ 0.08 ) >> I'm reading 'rumors' that Buffet might cash in his KO positions. I've worked for KO for years and can testify what a f'd up company it is. They've been sliding for years and just keep throwing money at advertising. The likely lateral move for Buffet would be SODA ( dropped over 50% in the last year ) but I don't like their EPS. However, their main supplier of sweetener is STEV. Trading at an all-time low. Just announced a bumper crop for 2014. Can't think of a bigger shift for fast food companies away from sugar.

    TCAP ( $25.56 ) >> a BCD that's focused on the NC Raleigh Durham Research Triangle. Really diverse holdings, pays an 8% div.
     

    GWPH ( $82.20 ) >> Marijuana play. All the smaller companies are long shots ( HEMP, CBIS, FSPM ) but these guys have a billion $ market cap. Maker of Sativex for MS. Wish I would of caught it last year, but worth putting on a pull-back list.

    NTAP ( $43.00 ) >> The hedge fund lovely. 93% institutional owned. They are a data collection unit used by AMZN and other big quant-based companies. AMZN will launch their "Pre-purchase Delivery" program next year. The logic is based solely on their algorithms, i.e. you're gonna have stuff on your doorstep before you even order it. Cool.

    VPCO ( $1.40 ) >> The E-Cig. I'm surprised this hasn't taken the market by storm, which leads me to believe that people just don't know about it. Estimated to be a $10 BB industry by 2015. It would be obvious for the big tobacco boys to move their ship, but I like the smaller play that would more than likely be acquired, like VPOR. Amazing growth.

    NXP ( $13.77 ) >> iBank.  I mentioned these guys a few weeks ago when I saw AAPLs big push into POS mobile. They make the NFC chips that allow all the mobile devices to talk together. Their tech is unchallenged. I see AAPLs next step, introducing "iCash" and becoming arguably one of the biggest banks in the world. We're already bullish on AAPL and these guys have to go with them. I know you don't like AAPL vendors because of the politics, but they patent everything and their gross margins are +50%. 

    JCP ( $10 ) >> Enough said. Underdog of the decade ?

    Pharm // Thoughts
    This is way out my expertise, but wanted to float these two by you.

    NVAX ( $4.23 ) >> H5N1 Phase 2 trials. Interesting because they don't use viruses in vaccines – it mutates the genetics. I found this fascinating.

    SIGA ( $1.49 ) >> main supplier to the FDA and the US Strategic Stockpile. Just signed a 400MM contract for small pocks. Fast track organization cleared by the government so when the shit hits the fan, they have warehouses ready to go.

    There are few more but they're way out there. I thought this would be good fodder for discussion, and I know Phil really likes to dig into this stuff ; >

     


  66. Rustle123 – FWIW.  I just saw where Citron initiated a short position in GPRO.


  67. They said this which is very true:

    Citron Research @CitronResearch $GPRO analysts raising tgts based on stock movement and not fundamentals create opp for shorts remember $DDD. Initiating short on $GPRO

    Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/14/09/4887535/citron-research-citronresearch-gpro-analysts-raising-tgts-based-on-stock-movement#ixzz3EpBce4Rh


  68. @albo

    Not that worried now about my 90 calls.  The stock is still over an 87RSI.  It's a hardware company not a biotech that just passed Phase 3 FDA clearance. They might hold the stock up for month's end but it will drop.


  69. Phil, A good webinar again today.  


  70. TM, Income Portfolio/Phil:  Hey Phil quick question about the TM adjustment.

    "TM – 5 2016 $110/135 bull call spreads with short $100 puts for net $3.50 @ $117.84.  Jan $110 calls still $13.80 can be rolled to 2017 $115 calls at $15 and short 2016 $135 calls at $4.10 can be rolled to Jan $115 calls at $6 and short 2016 $100 puts @ $4.20 can be rolled to 2017 $105 puts at $9.70. "

     

    So we are turning this bull-call spread into a 2015/2017 Calendar spread?

     

    Thanks!


  71. Thanks Sibe!  

    Notice guys that I said at 12:47 "Of course it's going to bounce at 1,100" (/TF) and that's exactly how we made $500 in the last few minutes of the Webinar at 2:30ish.   I believe that's another $500 Advill owes me this month for my super-specific example!  blush

    As I was saying in the Webinar, this stuff is not that hard – you just have to learn to be patient and, when the time is right, you have to be ready to act.  This is not much different than learning to hit a baseball…

    CLF/Kevin – So you essentially own 1,100 shares of CLF at $16,160 = 14.69 AND you have a bull call spread that's in the crapper too.  The question is – do you REALLY want to own CLF and, if so, how much?  Since CLF is at $10.36, you are down about $5,000 on the short puts and you can just sell 10 of the 2017 $12 puts for $5.35 (after killing the rest) and then you make $5,350 back over $12 and, if not, you own 1,000 shares at net $12, which is still better than $14.69.  I'd just sell 10-20 of those (killing the rest) and be happy to get even but, if you want to be more aggressive (assuming $5K is not a big deal to you), then the 2017 $8/15 bull call spread is $2.10 and 100% in the money, so it's a good proxy for owning the stock with up to 233% upside at $15.  

    E&Ps/RJ – No, if RIG can't work, then I don't see how the sector would.  

    SQQQ/Wombat – Well that's the spread I like best at the moment.   Going a little deeper in the money improves the delta on the $33s so we can take advantage of a quick dip more so than that $5 November spread will be able to (net delta is just 0.26 so a 10% move in SQQQ would net you less than $1).  As to TZA – I don't know what you're doing or where you entered them.  Hopefully you caught our entry on the Webinar.  

    GOGO/Wombat – We've had this discussion already, they are still very speculative and, as noted by Members earlier, really not that good yet.  I'm very content to have just a small bet on them.  As to the other homework you have for me, like my kids, I just can't wait for an assignment…

    Oh, and there's the list.  Seriously you expect me to comment on STEV with a $16M market cap?  Here's my comment on them – go here.  NTAP I do like, JCP I predicted $0 long ago.  Companies lik NXP violate my rule against playing stocks where all the news comes from BusinessWire.  TCAP I can't find financials on – on what basis do you make these decisions?  GWPH I have not a clue in the World about and VPCO is another penny stock with a $23M market cap – even if I did like them, it wouldn't be appropriate to discuss here with barely $100,000 a day traded.  

    TM/Kinki – Yes, because I think we can take advantage of Q4 weakness (see F guidance and Japan consumer spending) and then hopefully catch a move up in the spring before re-covering.  


  72. Finally getting a better move on /TF, over 1,102 now so that's the stop again.  


  73. US oil sees worst drop in 2 years, ends near $91

    World oil prices tumbled to their lowest in more than two years on Tuesday, with U.S. crude posting its biggest daily decline since 2012.

    Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102043076

    Sent from the CNBC app. Available on the App Store


  74. Bacon Cheeseburger Index: The real inflation gauge

    Most traditional indicators show inflation in the U.S. to be well under control, but bacon cheeseburger eaters know better.

    Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102045337

    Sent from the CNBC app. Available on the App Store


  75. Jackpot! Gambling’s impact on the US economy

    The American Gaming Association’s first report on the industry’s impact on the economy found that, despite big money, gaming firms have had to adapt.

    Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102045469

    Sent from the CNBC app. Available on the App Store


  76. Brookfield bids for Atlantic City’s Revel Casino

    An affiliate of Brookfield Asset Management has topped developer Glenn Straub’s $90M bid for the bankrupt Revel Casino Hotel in Atlantic City.

    Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102046174

    Sent from the CNBC app. Available on the App Store


  77. Wow, very ugly into the close, sellers coming back, 1,100 failing.  They need a big stick to hold things together.  

    Dollar 86.05, oil $91.37, gold $1,209, VIX 15.97, XLF $23.22, TLT 116.28 – healthy amount of worry seems to be in at the moment.


  78. Phil // TZA
    I wasn't on the webinar – what was the TZA re-entry ?

     


  79. Composite hitting 4,500 on the nose, quite the pin!  

    Dow just below 17,000, S&P 1,975, NYSE 10,721 and RUT 1,105.  Certainly not the way they wanted to end the quarter.  

    Silver just tapped $17 again (/SI) for a long but get right out if that fails!  

    TZA/Wombat – Why do you keep saying TZA?  Do you mean /TF?  If so, we're simply going long at 1,100 and playing for 1,102+ but game over this time as it didn't hold.  


  80. I said TZA because I mean TZA
    I've already made my bundle on /TF today


  81. spoke too soon – wow


  82. With the RUT already down, I like SQQQ as the fresh horse, we added the Jan $33/40 spreads to the STP and $2.39 (40).  We still have 100 of the DXD $24s too but those we'll cash in if the Dow gives us a nice drop this week.  

    Ugh, not a good finish at all.  


  83. /TF 
    long at 1096  ?


  84. FB keeps pushing on with new ATHs


  85. Phil: really nice presentation today. I've been so busy making adjustments in three accounts that I forgot to say:: Thanks for all the help the past few days.!


  86. TZA – Picked up a fistful when I saw it spiking further at the close, should have been SQQQ I guess, but glad I shorted in the last minute, having cashed in my earlier TZA position for a decent gain today.  Any time I end up on a down day I consider a small victory.  Sure is a bad global macro environment;  I also bought a few FXI puts in case Xi goes all Tianamen on Hong Kong.


  87. zero // hedge
    ya – i did the same. I keep monthly TZAs and just cash em on dips. Keep the SQQQ's in Jan.
    Phil // FXI
    didn't think about that. 


  88. Phil // TF
    Observation > Combining your 'number theory' with TA ( simple resistance and moving averages ) seems to do quite well for me.
    Also, it seems the longer you trade one future you can really get a feel for it – or maybe thats just because i'm green.


  89. Phil /futures clarity:

    Keep on, I´m sure that you will increase the subscription BASE with a good approach, I bet that most of your subscribers are people with longs and a decent amount expecting to juice it for the daily Mcmuffin    ( actually I prefer some "tapas" with good wine)…. but the pleasure of earning small amounts in a frequent base is something a lot of people could pay for….now you got my marketing opinion, still have to tell you that it could be interesting ( for me)  to know when you are entering or exiting  a operation ( I know that it could affect 1 sec. of operation) but knowing when you go in and out could multiply the ! weeeee´s.  As I told once, I want to be sick and bored ( like you) of earning small money. 

    If you make a survey I´m sure that a lot of subscribers use the session  time doing small futures trades.

    Ok, I said it…


  90. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 6:09:34 PM


    Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), speaks at a news conference about the first case of deadly Ebola diagnosed in the U.S. (Source: Bloomberg)

    The first case of deadly Ebola diagnosed in the U.S. has been confirmed in Dallas, in a man who was traveling in Liberia and arrived in the U.S. on Sept. 20, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said today.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1poVMw3

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  91. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 6:41:45 PM

    Futures on U.S. and Asian stock
    indexes fell after a slump in oil prices and the worst quarterly
    drop for global equities since 2012. West Texas Intermediate
    crude rose after its biggest one-day rout in 22 months, while
    silver held near a four-year low.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pp7978

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  92. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 5:28:03 PM


    Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — John Saunders, managing director and head of Asian real estate at BlackRock Inc., talks about markets in Hong Kong and China.
    He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Chinese policy makers eased property restrictions for the first time since the global financial crisis as a real-estate slump’s threat to economic growth overtakes worries about housing affordability.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1otoiMW

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  93. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 5:56:00 PM


    Islamic State militants pass a checkpoint bearing the group’s trademark black flag in the village of Maryam Begg, in Kirkuk, 290 kilometers north of Baghdad, Iraq, on Sept. 29, 2014. Photographer: Hadi Mizban/AP Photo

    Islamic State terrorists are
    dispersing and changing tactics to make it harder for U.S.
    airstrikes to target them, the Pentagon’s spokesman said today.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pp3s1c

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  94. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 6:08:56 PM

    Prescription pills go through an automated packaging machine. Photographer: Stand Honda/AFP via Getty Images

    U.S. doctors and teaching hospitals were paid $3.5 billion by drug and device makers over five months in 2013, according to the first comprehensive disclosure of the companies’ financial ties to the medical professionals that prescribe and use their products.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1xxLVfn

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  95. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 11:55:32 AM


    A Russian national flag flies from the roof of Russia’s central bank, also known as Bank Rossii, in Moscow on Aug. 5, 2014. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

    Russia’s central bank is weighing the introduction of temporary capital controls if the flow of money out of the country intensifies, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1vt2qHB

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  96. Phil/HK – thoughts on this stock. I have ridden it up with great profits and watched it come way down again. I get that it is down with oil, but I'm curious on your rec on adjustments if any. I'm long the stock at $4.11 and short the $5 calls and $3 puts for a total of $1.8. Thx 



  97. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 8:14:23 PM


    Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Vikram Malhotra, head of investment banking for Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse Group AG, talks about China’s economy and capital markets.
    He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark
    index heading for a fourth day of losses, after consumer
    confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly declined and Hong Kong
    braced for bigger protests as Chinese holidays started.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ppdkYY

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  98. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 10:01:49 PM

    Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Scarlet Fu explores the history behind Hong Kong and Beijing relationship as protestors take to the streets to demand free and open elections in 2017. She speaks on “Market Makers.”

    Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying was jeered by pro-democracy demonstrators at a ceremony to hoist the Chinese flag as the city entered the sixth day of protests seeking free elections.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1xxEiWk

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  99. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 3:47:15 PM


    Dengue fever, the Chikungunya virus and the Zika virus are spread by the bite of an infected Aedes mosquito. Photograph: Universal History Archive/UIG via Getty images

    A mosquito-borne virus that can cause debilitating joint pain lasting for years has spread to the continental U.S. after infecting hundreds of thousands of people in the Caribbean and Central America.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1sM7pUQ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  100. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 9:43:55 PM

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) lost a bid to
    block buyers of $10 billion worth of residential mortgage-backed
    securities it packaged in 2007 to proceed as a group with their
    lawsuit alleging the bank misled them.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ppbqHO

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  101. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 9:20:01 PM

    Workers assemble mechanical pencils and trays at the A.W. Faber-Castell (Guangzhou) Stationery Co. factory in Guangzhou. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    China’s manufacturing stayed subdued
    last month as an official gauge was unchanged, with the world’s
    second-largest economy weighed down by a property slump.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pph9gC

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  102. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 9:17:17 PM


    Singapore has been seeking to combat property speculation since 2009 as record home prices amid low interest rates raised concerns of a housing bubble. Photographer: Bryan van der Beek/Bloomberg

    Singapore’s home prices declined for
    a fourth consecutive quarter, the longest losing streak in five
    years, as tighter mortgage measures cooled demand in Asia’s
    second-most expensive housing market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1sMpZMo

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  103. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 9:28:27 PM


    Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) — Masayuki Kichikawa, chief Japan economist at Bank of America Corp. in Tokyo, talks about the business sentiment in the world’s third-largest economy, and the outlook for the yen.
    Confidence of Japanese manufacturers unexpectedly improved. Kichikawa speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Japanese companies indicated they may
    boost investment by the most since 2007 as sentiment among big
    manufacturers unexpectedly improved, providing encouragement for
    Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s revitalization effort.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ppcnje

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  104. From Bloomberg, Sep 30, 2014, 10:35:23 PM


    Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) — Shusuke Yamada, a Tokyo-based foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of America, talks about Japan’s economy, central bank policy and yen.
    He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    The dollar rose above 110 yen for the
    first time since 2008 before a private report that may show
    companies in the U.S. added more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth
    month, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ppdW0I

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  105. SPY  5  MINUTEGood morning!  

    Things are drifting along so far but we're failing 1,100 on /TF, which I consider very critical and 4,050 on /NQ has failed despite a few attempts to spike over it and /YM 16,850 is being tested from above with 1,965 failing on /ES, so all bad and the Nas is still the laggard at 4,038.50.  

    /NKD 16,155 is back to yesterday's low with both China's closed (holiday) and India and Singapore down a bit.

    Tensions Mount in Hong Kong

    Pro-democracy rallies expanded to new parts of Hong Kong Wednesday, China's National Day, a holiday that looked set to increase the chances for a confrontation.

    Hong Kong Protests Slow Down Tourism

    China Factory Activity Steady, Anemic

    Samsung Drags on Korea Stocks

    South Korea's stock market hit three-year highs in July, buoyed by investors' optimism. Then Samsung Electronics intervened. Now, the broader Korea Composite Stock Price Index, or Kospi, is back at a two-month low.

    • iPhone 6 On Sale in China Oct. 17

      Apple's iPhone 6 will go on sale in China after winning final approval from regulators who scrutinized the device's security features amid rising concerns in the country about privacy.

    • India Manufacturing Activity Falls

      A closely watched reading of India's manufacturing activity fell to a nine-month low in September, indicating a recovery in the South Asian economy remains fragile

    SPY DAILYEurope is mixed and down about 0.25% on average, though they'll follow us down if those levels fail.  Don't forget, we're still waiting for Draghi to save us on Thursday.  

    Mario Draghi to push ECB to buy Greek, Cypriot 'junk' loans: FT

    Eurozone Inflation Hits Five-Year Low

    The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone fell further below the European Central Bank's target in September, and to its lowest level since October 2009.

    Italy's Woes Highlight ECB Dilemma

    Economists have grown increasingly concerned that even beefed-up ECB action would be far less effective in the eurozone than similar measures in the U.S. and U.K. have been in boosting growth there.

     

    French Policy Stupor Sends Bearish Equity Bets SoaringFrench stocks have beaten euro-area stocks for six years. Options traders are betting 2014 will be different. With a budget deficit poised to rise and economic growth running at half the region’s rate, investor sentiment on the CAC 40 Index (CAC) is deteriorating. Options protecting against swings in the equity gauge cost the most since April 2013 relative to the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. ?

    Germany, France Send Mixed Economic Signals

    Ukraine Forces Repel Airport Assaults

    Ukrainian forces repelled two fresh assaults by pro-Russia rebels on the airport in the eastern city of Donetsk, a security spokesman said, as fighting for the strategic site showed no sign of ending despite a cease-fire signed nearly a month ago.

    Russia Could Ditch Dollar In 2-3 Years"; Deputy PM Warns Nuclear Subs "Could Reach Any Country On Any Continent

    SPX WEEKLYWe're at a really critical break on the S&P as well.  As you can see from the channel, we can't afford another down day or there will be severe technical damage.  The news flow is certainly not in our favor either.  And it's time to sell everything if this Ebola thing in the US isn't isolated.  We're able to contain it, of course, but it will scare the crap out of people if it's more than just an isolated incident:

    CDC confirms first case of Ebola in USThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed on Tuesday that a patient being treated at a Dallas hospital has tested positive for Ebola, the first case diagnosed in the United States. The patient left Liberia on September 19 and arrived in the United States on September 20, CDC director, Dr. Tom Frieden told reporters at a press conference Tuesday. It’s the first patient to be diagnosed with this particular strain of Ebola outside of Africa.

    U.S. Ebola case boosts drug makers working on treatments

    CDC Confirms First Ebola Case Diagnosed In The US, In Dallas Hospital – Press Conference Live Feed

    What Just Happened In Today's "Crazy" And Biggest Ever "Window-Dressing" Reverse Repo

    If Something Rattles This Ponzi Scheme, Life In America Will Change Overnight

    Investors Are Too Comfortable In The Fed's Win-Win Conditions For Taking Risk

    Small Caps Suffer Worst Quarter In 3 Years; Bonds Leading Year-To-Date

    JP Morgan(JPM) Is About To Face An Enormous Class Action Lawsuit By Investors

    Rising U.S. Crude Exports Move Closer to 1957 RecordU.S. oil exports, which in July reached the highest level since 1957, are set to climb to a record by the end of 2014 as producers find ways around a four-decade restriction on crude leaving the country. The U.S. sent 401,000 barrels a day abroad in July, 54,000 shy of the record set in March 1957, according to data compiled by the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical unit. While Canada accounted for 93 percent of the shipments, Italy, Singapore and Switzerland also took U.S. oil. Coupled with Alaskan oil bound for Asia, total U.S. exports will reach 1 million barrels a day by the middle of 2015, according to Citigroup Inc. (C)

    The FCC Might Ban Broadcasters From Saying The 'Redskins' Team Name


  106. Silver bullish is still a fun bet over $17 (/SI), now $17.015 but very tight stops if it fails.  Gold tested $1,205 overnight and I still like them over the '05 line or the '00 line but not the '10 line because there's resistance at $1,212.50 but, over that, they are good again to $1,220 (/YG).  Oil held $91.50 overnight, as expected and now makes a good long over that line as we expect a pop into inventories (10:30).  

    Great rundown on oil and the API from Invezz.com:

    iNVEZZ.com, Wednesday, October 1: The price of WTI recorded yesterday its steepest daily decline in 22 months, while Brent touched its lowest level in more than two years. WTI futures slumped 3.6 percent in New York and Brent futures slipped 2.6 percent in London. OPEC oil output rose last month, led by a rebound in Libyan production, to its highest in nearly two years.

    November WTI futures were up 42 cents, or 0.46 percent, to $91.58 in electronic trading on the NYMEX in New York, as of 10:26 BST. The contract fell $3.41 yesterday to finish at $91.16 per barrel, the lowest close since 1 May, 2013. It also marked the biggest one-day drop since November 2012.

    According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), speculators reduced their net long positions in WTI by 4.8 percent during last week to 193,965 futures and options.

    Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) published yesterday said that inventories slid 460,000 barrels last week. The API collects information on a voluntary basis while the government requires reports to be filed with the EIA, making the latter’s data more representative.

    The report also showed that gasoline stockpiles decreased by 2.5 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels.

    Brent for November delivery rose 0.26 percent, or 25 cents, to $94.92 as of 10:26 BST on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Yesterday the contract fell $2.53 to end the day at $94.67, after touching an intraday low of $94.24, the weakest since June 2012.

    “We are going to continue to see lower prices as we go forward,” Tariq Zahir, a commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors, told Bloomberg. “Fundamentally we are just very well supplied. The dollar continues to get stronger and it’s adding pressure to oil.”

    According to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil supply reached its highest level in nearly two years last month. The growth was due to further recovery in Libyan production and greater output from Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf producers.

    "OPEC needs to cut production to rebalance oil markets, yet we see no evidence or sense of urgency for a faster reduction in production," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note, cited by Reuters.

    As of 10:26 BST, Brent was trading at a premium of $3.34 to WTI. Yesterday, the premium fell to $2.63, the narrowest since August 2013.

    So, now that API is out with a small build in oil but a nice draw in distillates, which is not what we expected and may be wrong but, for now, it should allow for a run-up from here.  Since $90.86 was yesterday's low, however, it does not pay to be brave if $91.50 fails to hold on /CL!  

    Keep an eye on the Dollar, of course, at 86.17.  Higher than this will put pressure on oil prices. 

    NYMO DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    VIX WEEKLY


  107. Russell looking very weak right now! NYSE approaching its 200 DMA.


  108. MSFT/Terra – That's almost funny.  Would be funny if we weren't forced to deal with those guys. angry

    Oil creeping up at $91.65, not very exciting but good considering the Dollar popped to $86.25.  I think they are doing what they did yesterday, running the Dollar up pre-market so they can drop it and boost equities later.  

    Thank you Jbur, much appreciated.  

    TZA/ZZ, Wombat – My problem with TZA at 1,100 is that the RUT can really move quickly against you.  That's why I prefer the lagging (to the downside) Nasdaq play with SQQQ for now.  Below 1,100, however, we may get a ride down to 1,000 and that's a fat 10%(ish).  

    Combining/Wombat – That's great and also the idea of what we're teaching, everyone has their own style and you need to find the one that works for you – we're just here to give you the tools and show you how to use them.  

    Very true on specializing – notice when we do our Webinars, I always have the same 4 Futures up (/ES, /YM, /TF and /CL or /NKD) – I think if you go back to November, other than maybe /NQ, /NG, /RB /YG or /SI once in a while (for specific reasons), those are the only ones I play.  

    It's like the "home field advantage" – you do get a better feel for your favorites over time.  The problem is, most traders don't give themselves a chance as the flit from trade to trade. 

    Futures/Advill – As you can see from the end of yesterday's Webinar, it's not actually possible to type fast enough to describe those trades live.  What I can try to do is teach you how, so you can do it yourself – equally as quick.  Meanwhile, take the $500 you owe me and come to Vegas, where I can actually hold your hand while you trade!  wink

    HK/Palotay – They are heavy in Bakken and other places where it's expensive to extract so the low price of oil is biting them hard.  $1.80/2.40 is a good entry but, if you aren't going to be happy to DD at $2, I'd get out now as oil is not showing any sign of turning just yet.  

    Virus/ZZ – Wow, targeting people they don't agree with?  I think they got that virus from Cramer!  If they have figured out how to infect people over WiFi or LTE, then none of us are safe.  

    Big Chart – Ouch, worse than I was thinking it would look.  Dow still could be good for a nice 500-point drop back to the 200 dma – almost a certainty if the NYSE can't hold 10,600. 


  109. Phil / Vegas ;  Well as you know I stay some months each year in US….well,  in TX, however  we are not planning  to  be there until next March, we just stayed  in June, but I fell attraction to know this group in "flesh and blood", you are quite a special guy….it deserves a poker hand with you .


  110. And now that nobody hears, I think that you should be running a fund in real or using the technology that allows you to do a movement at the same moment in a set of linked contracts….I know that  we "should learn to do things by ourselves " but THAT IS A GOOD PROJECT TO INVEST IN, instead of investing in "the guy" …(you), let´s invest in the activity and knowledge of  " the guy"  ( you again)….so that´s a good company to invest in.

    As far as I know there are ways to avoid the onerous controls of regulator through automatic replication..


  111. Markets are looking pretty ugly.  Maybe, just maybe, we'll get a buying opportunity.  But I shouldn't get my hopes up.