Posts Tagged ‘Income Portfolio’

Testy Tuesday – Dressing the Windows at our Bounce Lines

First, the big news:

EBAY has finally agreed to spin off PayPal and that's going to give us a nice boost in our Income Portfolio (which we fortunately just adjusted more aggressive yesterday) and EBAY has been on our Buy List (Members Only) since 5/20, when they were testing $50 and, as I said to our Members when I predicted an earnings beat in July:

Paypal, Paypal and Paypal.  They should beat the .68 expectations (.63 last year) and all of last year they traded in the $50s, so why should they be below it now when they are making $3 a year (p/e 16.7)?  Compared to the rest of the market, this thing is a real bargain!  

They beat by a penny and, as you can see from the chart, that was enough to kick them up 10% and we recently got a nice re-entry at $50, when we took advantage of the spike down to sell more 2016 $50 puts for $5.50 which were up 15% at $4.80 at yesterday's close – not bad for a month's work and they should be up 30% by the end of today!  

Today we will see an all-out effort to keep the markets afloat so the books on Q3 can be spun positive by the Banksters, who have Trillions of Dollars riding on the outcome.  

Of course, we KNOW that no Bankster would ever attempt to manipulate the Market, or LIBOR, or Currencies, or Ratings…  Well, not if they knew for a fact they would get caught AND the punishment was more than a slap on the wrist, anyway.  Thank goodness, that never happens.

As you can see from our Big Chart, the S&P came to a rest right on the 50 dma at 1,977 so that's the do or die line for the day while it's 4,495 on the Nasdaq.  On the Dow we want to see 17,100 taken back and the NYSE needs to hold 10,750 while the poor, beleagured Russell just needs to hold that 1,110 line.  Officially, our bounce lines remain:

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Meaningless Monday – Waiting for Yellen to Testify Tomorrow

We're got our strong bounces on Friday – now we'll see if they hold up! .  

As you can see from our big chart, we still have Spitting Cobra patterns forming on all but the Russell, which has turned into a Vomiting Cobra, spilling all the way down to the 50 dma at 1,150.  We're still below the Weak Bounce Line on the NYSE – so we'll watch that closely and the Russell needs to get over their Strong Bounce at 1,170 to confirm:  

  • Dow 17,050 to 16,800 is 250 in 3 days so you need to make a strong bounce in 1.5 days in order to have a chance at a V recovery.  Bounces would be 50 points so 16,850 and 16,900 are what we'll watch.  
  • S&P 1,985 to 1,955 is 30 points so 6-point bounces to 1,961 and 1,967 will be our targets. 
  • Nasdaq 4,485 to 4,360 (now I'm rounding) is 125 so 25-point bounces to 4,385 and 4,410.
  • NYSE 11,100 to 10,900 is 200 points so 40-point bounces to 10,940 and 10,980.
  • Russell 1,208 to 1,140 is 68 points and we'll call that 14-point bounces for 1,155 (rounding) and 1,170

SPX WEEKLYAlso key, of course, is the 3 of 5 red signals on our Must Hold line on our Big Chart™ - only the NYSE is likely to make it over today, with a 64-point move (0.5%) taking it back to 11,000 – certainly that's not asking too much before we flip to some more bullish betting, is it?  

We still have 29 stocks on our Buy List (Members Only) and, since they dynamically update, it's very easy to see that about 1/2 of them haven't gotten away yet and are still playable for dip buying.  We also have 29 more stocks from our old Long-Term Portfolio, which we liquidated on May 29th – and that is full of great trade ideas as well.  

We just did Week 4 for our our May Trade Review over the weekend and we slipped to 73% that week (ending 5/23) which brought us down to 84% for the month with 158 out of 197 trade ideas on the winning side.  Still, going from 125-17 to 158-29 was an early indicator that we were losing
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TGIF – Can We Stop The Week Before Our Indexes Fail?

Look at the Russell!  

Look at the Nasdaq!  Are you seriously still holding onto your Dow, S&P and NYSE stocks?  That's exactly what people did in 2008, when they were so used to the markets being saved whenever they dipped, that they ignored all the warning signs – until it was too late.  

I know that I've been sounding like a broken record and you can call me Chicken Little but cut me a little slack as we are protecting profits here.  

We have 5 virtual porfolios we track for our Members and the $100,000 Butterfly Portfolio is up 19.4% ($19,000), the $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio is up 9.6% ($48,000), the $100,000 Portfolio is down 5.8% ($5,800), the $500,000 Income Portfolio is up 6.4% ($32,000) and our $25,000 Portfolio is up 15.4% ($3,850).  Overall, that's a gain of 8.8% on $1.225M deployed in 4 months.  

SPY 5 MINUTEThe Short-Term Portfolio is a hedge to the Long-Term Portfolio, so we haven't cashed those in but the Income Portfolio doesn't have an external hedge, so we moved to cash on that one last month (BEFORE the Nas and Rut started crashing off decade highs) and the Butterfly Portfolio is self-hedging while the $25KP has just one position left.  

Perhaps I'm wrong and the Nasdaq and the Russell will recover and the other indexes will all move up to new highs.  Even if they do, our worst case is we miss a bit of a rally.  If we're breaking out to new all-time highs from here – there will be plenty of money to be made.  BUT – if I'm right and the market drops 5-10%, then our taking 110% off the table at the top means that when we buy stocks again at 90%, we are buying 120% of what we could have bought had we not wisely cashed out in the rally.  

NDX WEEKLYThe REWARD for being cautious is owning 20% more shares if we're right, owning maybe 2.5% less shares if we're wrong or owning the same amount if the market stays flat.  It doesn't take a degree in statistical analysis to see why I
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Monday – “Markets in Turmoil” According to CNBC – Must be Time to Buy!

What a fantastic contrary indicator!

CNBC hit the panic button this weekend with their "Markets in Turmoil" special report where they trot out their crisis team of Jim Cramer and Maria Bartiromo in an attempt to stampede all the remaining sheeple out of the markets on Monday Morning (see our Friday morning post for our view on why we thought Friday's drop was going to be a bear trap).

"An awful May is replaced by the start of a frightening June" is CNBC's opening voice over and it gets dumber and dumber from there as "America's Financial News Network" bangs the fear drum right at Asia's open (9pm) and then uses the panic in Asia to prove their point to EU and US traders that there's something to worry about.  

I could go on and on about how ridiculously evil this network is and how horrible it is that we allow these Financial propaganda networks to manipulate the markets to the benefit of the highest bidder but, in the long run – who cares?  If you watch CNBC and take it seriously – just like people who watch Fox to find out what's going on in the World – you reap what crap you have sown.  

SPY DAILYWe are not, in any way, gung-ho bullish but we're also not going to play bearish.  On the whole, as we reviewed in this week's Stock World Weekly (available free this week!) - we are "wishy washy" in our positions, cashy and cautious and doing just a bit of bottom-fishing as we HOPE (not a valid investing strategy) that this is the bottom as we HOPE the G8 takes some rational action.

We made a bullish play on the Futures at 9:13 last night, while CNBC was clearing out all the suckers at Dow (/YM) 12,000 but we took that money and ran as we popped over 12,075 (up $375 per contract) early this morning and flipped to a bullish play on oil (/CL) off the $82 line and those contracts are already $82.40 – up $400 per contract at 8am.  

We were also very excited to see AAPL back at our buy point of $555 early this morning as AAPL is pure rocket fuel for the Nasdaq when it bounces and AAPL can move quickly back to $580 on any hint of…
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Phil's Favorites

Voices from an age of uncertain work - Americans miss stability and a shared sense of purpose in their jobs

 

Voices from an age of uncertain work – Americans miss stability and a shared sense of purpose in their jobs

Work isn’t as stable as it once was. fizkes/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of David L. Blustein, Boston College

On the surface, the well-being of the American worker seems rosy.
Unemployment in the U.S. hovers near a 50-year low, and employers describe growing shortages of workers in a wide array of fields.

But looking beyond the numbers tells a different story. My new book, “...



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Zero Hedge

Camouflaged Israeli Ex-PM Pictured Entering Epstein's Mansion The Same Day As Hotties Show Up

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak was photographed entering Jeffrey Epstein's Manhattan mansion in January, 2016 wearing a camouflage scarf around his face - the same day that a bunch of young women showed up, according to the Daily Mail.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver ETF (SLV) Testing Dual Breakout Resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Silver (NYSEARCA: SLV) has been in a bit of a slumber when compared to the price action for Gold (NYSEARCA: GLD).

Precious metals bulls hope that this about to change, as bullish action from Silver is necessary to confirm any bull market / move in metals.

Today’s chart takes a closer look at the Silver ETF (SLV) on a weekly basis. As you can see, Silver is up 5 percent this week alone.

This is good news for metals bulls. But this rally isn’t confirming a breakout just yet.

As you can see in the chart below, SLV has been trading between support (1) ...



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Insider Scoop

Analysts Weigh In On Netflix's Rocky Quarter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported second-quarter results highlighted by an uncharacteristic decline in U.S. subscribers while international subscriber adds missed expectations. Here is a summary of how some of the Street's top analysts reacted to the print.

The Analysts

Mor...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Breaks Back Below $10k, Crypto-Crash Accelerates As Asia Opens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update 2010ET: Having briefly stabilized after this morning's weakness, cryptos are tumbling once again as Asian markets open.

Bitcoin has broken below $10,000 again...

*  *  *

While all eyes are on Bitcoin as it slides back towards $10,000, the real mover in the last 12 hours has been Ethereum after...



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Biotech

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing - but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

Reminder: We're is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA testing companies offer telomere testing – but what does it tell you about aging and disease risk?

A telomere age test kit from Telomere Diagnostics Inc. and saliva. collection kit from 23andMe. Anna Hoychuk/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Patricia Opresko, University of Pittsburgh and Elise Fouquerel, ...



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ValueWalk

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

 

Professor Shubha Ghosh On The Current State Of Gene Editing

Courtesy of Jacob Wolinsky, ValueWalk

ValueWalk’s Q&A session with Professor Shubha Ghosh, a professor of law and the director of the Syracuse Intellectual Property Law Institute. In this interview, Professor Ghosh discusses his background, the Human Genome Project, the current state of gene editing, 3D printing for organ operations, and gene editing regulation.

...

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Chart School

Gold Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Charts show us the golden brick road to high prices.

GLD Gann Angle has been working since 2016. Higher prices are expected. Who would say anything different, and why and how?

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.



The GLD very wide channel shows us the way.
- Conservative: Tag the 10 year rally starting in 2001 to 2019 and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 10 years.
- Aggressive: Tag the 5 year rally starting in 1976 to 2019  and it forecasts $750 GLD (or $7500 USD Gold Futures) in 5 years.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if ima...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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