Archive for 2014

Swing trading portfolio – week of June 9th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

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Caught On Tape: Nancy Pelosi Squirms As Teen Questions Her On The NSA

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

You’ve got to give young Andrew Demeter a lot of credit. Given the chance to meet a powerful Congresswoman, most people would melt into a sad puddle of unjustified reverence and pathetic groveling. Not this young man. When he was given the opportunity to ask Nancy Pelosi a question, he confronted her on the NSA’s unconstitutional spy practices and why she hasn’t done anything to stop it, considering she claims to be so “liberal.”

You need to check out this brief video. This kid has major cojones.





PBOC Hits Panic Button: Strengthens Currency By Most In 20 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On the heels of growing contagion concerns regarding shadow banking collateral and the “rehypothecation evaporation” and this weekend’s ‘odd’ Chinese trade data (big drop in imports, no doubt impacted by dramatic commodity invoicing swings), the PBOC has fixed the Chinese currency 0.36% in the last 2 days… the biggest strengthening in the currency since October 2012. It is unclear for now exactly what is going on but we suspect the panic button outflows as banks pull credit and unwind CCFDs are forcing China’s hand to offset CNY selling pressure… and of course China does it in grand style.

 

China’s biggest trade surplus since Jan 09… as imports tumbled 1.6% (against expectations of a 6% rise)

 

After weeks of weakening and comments on rising volatility and flexibity to tamp down the carry trade fervor, China has gone to the other extreme…

 

Whether this is to kill off the last of the momentum-chasing muppers now following the CNY weakenin trend is unclear but one thing is certain, the coincidence of such a violent move with the rising credit contagion concerns in the warehouse probes is extremely interesting.

 

Barclays provides some more color:

Barclays expects depreciating CNY and recent govt probe into commodity financing to continue to discourage commodity imports for arbitrage purposes, according to note yesterday; despite sizable trade surplus and FDI, PBOC’s FX purchase slowed markedly in recent mos., suggesting reduced capital inflows from other channels and signs of capital outflows





Where Metal Spikes Meet The Homeless: In London “The Destitute Are Now Considered Vermin”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

First, the world’s oligarchs slowly but surely took over London real estate, where as we reported last week, home prices in May soared by the most in 12 years, and now, according to the Telegraph, in order to make London into an even more exclusive enclave where only the uber-wealthy can rub shoulders, assorted luxury buildings are installing metal spikes on the ground outside to fully deter homeless people from sleeping (and hence living) there. In other words, in London homeless people have been relegated to pigeon status, as the same technique has been long used to prevent rats with wings from landing, and defecating, at select locations.

From the Telegraph:

Andrew Horton, 33, of Woking, Surrey, took the picture of the inch long studs outside the flats on Southwark Bridge Road as he walked to work on Wednesday.

Mr Horton said: “I can’t say for certain but it certainly looked like they were placed there to deter homeless people. “It’s dreadful.”

David Wells said on Twitter: “These Anti homeless studs are like the spikes they use to keep pigeons off buildings. The destitute now considered vermin [sic].

Not everyone is a stud humanist: others defended the metal protrusions.

Gavin Logan said on Twitter: “There will be a context behind those anti-homeless spikes. Possibly a last resort against someone who was aggressive and refused housing.” People living in the flats, which sell for upwards of £800,000, said the metal studs were installed two weeks ago after a number of homeless people were seen sleeping there.

 

One woman resident, who asked not to be named, said: “There was a homeless man asleep there about six weeks ago. “Then about two weeks ago all of a sudden studs were put up outside. “I presume it is to deter homeless people from sleeping there.”

 

A couple, who also asked to remain anonymous, added: “It’s because of the homeless. “The spikes have only been there very recently, less than a month.”

One guy asked the pragmatic question:

A man looking around the flats, a ten-minute walk from Southwark Underground Station, said the spikes would


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The NSA Is Seeking To Fill A Cyber Intelligence Analyst Position In Its Hawaii Location

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a world in which the Twitter account of one secret government agency, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, jokes about the topic of abuse of secrecy and personal privacy – something which back in the day resulted in the impeachment of a US president – in broad public daylight, a year after the US “turnkey totalitarian state” has been exposed for all to see…

… it can be difficult to evaluate what in this banana republic is a grotesque farce and what is reality.

The following job posting from the NSA, however, seeking an experienced Cyber Intelligence Analyst for the Honolulu, Hawaii location, is all too real. 

Which makes us wonder: is this merely an attempt by the NSA – whose every last secret is being slowly but surely revealed – to unburn bridges with the most infamous Hawaii-based NSA operative in history? Or, alternatively, is it time for another patriotic whistleblower to step in Edward’s shoes?

From the NSA:

Responsibilities
     
NSA Intelligence Analysts also support cyber! Intelligence Analysts seek creative solutions to answer cyber-related analytic questions, demonstrate a thorough understanding of the telecommunications environment and network trends of their targets, solve difficult technical problems, work independently and collaborate effectively in cyber analysis and research, apply new techniques to solve analytic problems, prepare written and oral assessments of foreign intelligence that provide unique insight into target cyber intentions unavailable from other intelligence disciplines.

NSA Intelligence Analysts perform a wide range of analytic tasks, including the following: maintain awareness of emerging cyber-related technologies; research relevant technical sources for information on foreign intelligence targets; develop query strategies to obtain relevant information; identify communication patterns; determine tactics, techniques, and procedures for intrusion sets; assess validity and relevance of foreign intelligence; profile foreign targets and their activities; report target research outcomes to customers; perform target discovery by developing strategies to obtain new information and sources for intelligence; and/or monitor target data for changes or anomalies. Additionally, NSA Intelligence Analysts are expected to take an inclusive approach to problem solving and mission accomplishments by frequently…
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The Only Chart You Need To See To Trade Japan’s GDP “Beat”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Japan’s Trade balance missed expectations once again (bigger deficit than hoped or expected), the flashing red headlines of the night belong to Japan’s 1.6% QoQ GDP print (better than expected)  – the ‘best growth’ since Q3 2011. The initial reaction was JPY weaker, which meant Nikkei higher (and oddly JGBs rallied too). But… and it’s a big but… Japanese consumer spending shot up by 2.2% in Q1 – the biggest on record… matched only by Q1 1997, the quarter before Japan’s last tax-hike decision. What happened the quarter after that? Take a look…

 

 

Now what kind of damage will that do to Q2 GDP? Let’s take a look at what happened to Japanee stocks after the same surge in “growth” in 1997….

 

So are we going to get the bounce of euphoria followed by the 40% plunge of reality?





Sector Detector: Bulls revel in the new normal, while bears lie in wait

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Scott MartindaleAfter its long-awaiting breakout of the 1900 level the other week, the S&P 500 gained another +1.3% last week alone, but this double-low progression as I call it — i.e., on extremely low volume and with persistently low volatility — is worrisome. With the 2000 level now in sight, there still remains a dearth of bullish conviction, and although the technical picture remains quite extended and overbought, there is no sign yet of bearish action to produce the elusive correction that is now so overdue that bears seem to have almost given up on it — for now. In fact, we are seeing short covering and a falling put/call ratio. Some market commentators are saying that market conditions are reminiscent of the mid-1990s. We haven’t seen a real correction in quite some time. So, is this the proverbial new normal?

History tells us that when everyone is bullish the market is near a top. But with volume low and many still underinvested and waiting for an entry point, all these indications of bullish sentiment don’t necessarily mean that everyone has already put all their money to work. So, the market can and likely will go higher. It just doesn’t normally go up in a straight line as it has done. Some backing and filling is normal and healthy — and preferable.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a. fear gauge, closed last week at 10.73, which set another new 52-week low. Although some observers are predicting single digits for the VIX, the greater likelihood is a mean reversion sometime soon, which could bring it back up to test the 15 threshold once again.

The 10-year yield remains below 2.60% and may yet fall further. This is at least partly because of ECB monetary stimulus to stave off the threat of disinflation in Europe. Moreover, as I mentioned last week, the flattening yield curve here in the U.S. is also a signal that investors believe the Fed cannot raise rates without tanking the economy. However, others are now opining that the despite the zero-interest rate policy, there is not much lending and borrowing for capital expenditures and growth. Rather, they say that the free money is being used for generating low-risk trading profits or for buying back stock to prop up EPS valuations, creating a troubling asset bubble…
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Socialism Comes To Seattle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man blog,

Seattle Bows to Demand of Socialist Councilwoman Kshama Sawant

Economic science has long shown that labor is not magically exempted from the laws of supply and demand. Therefore, minimum wage laws hurt rather than help workers, especially those with few skills or those just starting out, who are on the lowest rungs of the ladder. If one wants to raise youth unemployment and price unskilled workers out of the market, there is no surer way than introducing a minimum wage – especially one that is far higher than what the market can bear.

Note that a great deal of so-called ‘pro labor’ legislation that instituted wage minimums has only belatedly adjusted the legal minimum wage to levels the market economy was already able to provide, due to the increase in capital invested per worker.  If the extent of the legally mandated minimum wage does not exceed what the market can bear, it mainly serves to polish the image of politicians, while the harm is at least limited. This is however not to say that there is no harm done at all by the introduction of such wage price controls, even if the levels seem reasonable.

After all, the economy is subject to frequent booms and busts under the current monetary regime, and if wages are inflexible to the downside, unemployment will tend to soar during the bust phases. The huge unemployment rates during the Great Depression were a direct result of president Hoover ‘persuading’ companies not to drop wage rates, in spite of a sharp fall in prices and a genuine money supply deflation.

Seattle is one of the few municipalities in the US boasting of an openly socialist council member, Ksahma Sawant. As the author of this article at Forbes rightly notes, it is quite astonishing that this purveyor of bad economics (she not only supports minimum wage laws, but also rent controls and it seems she wants Amazon to be nationalized as well) is actually teaching an economics course at the Seattle Central Community College.

As a politician, one of her central demands was the introduction of a $15/hr. Minimum wage in Seattle. The city council has now bowed to this demand, a decision that is likely to prove extremely destructive, especially to small…
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“For The Chosen, One”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

E Pluribus, Unum!

 

 

Source: Investors.com via Sunday Funnies





The Part-Time Employment Ratio: Slight Improvement in May

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Let’s take a close look at Friday’s employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government’s Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The focus is on total hours worked: Full-time status may result from multiple part-time jobs.

The Labor Department has been collecting this since 1968, a time when only 13.5% of US employees were part-timers. That number peaked at 20.1% in January 2010. The latest data point, over four years later, is only modestly lower at 18.5% last month, although this is a new interim low.

Here is a visualization of the trend in the 21st century, with the percentage of full-time employed on the left axis and the part-time employed on the right. We see a conspicuous crossover during Great Recession.

The Impact of the Great Recession

Here is a closer look since 2007. The reversal began in 2008, but it accelerated in the Fall of that year following the September 15th bankruptcy of Lehmann Brothers. In this seasonally adjusted data the reversal peaked in early 2010. Four years later the spread has narrowed, but we’re still a long way from the ratio before the Great Recession.

The two charts above are seasonally adjusted and include the entire workforce, which the CPS defines as age 16 and over. A problem inherent in using this broadest of cohorts is that it includes the population that adds substantial summertime volatility to the full-time/part-time ratio, namely, high school and college students. Also the 55-plus cohort includes a subset of employees that opt for part-time employment during the decade following the historical peak spending years (ages 45-54) and as a transition toward retirement.

The Core Workforce: Ages 25-54

The next chart reduces the summertime volatility problem by focusing on the 25-54 workforce. Note that the government’s full-time/part-time data for this cohort is only available as non-seasonally adjusted. To help us recognize the summer seasonality that remains, I’ve used a lighter color for the summer-month markers, which are the most subject to temporary shifts from part-time to 35-plus hours of employment. I’ve also included 12-month moving averages for the two series to help us identify the slope of the trend in recent years.

Like…
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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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