Archive for 2014

Swing trading portfolio – week of June 9th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

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Swing trading virtual portfolio

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Caught On Tape: Nancy Pelosi Squirms As Teen Questions Her On The NSA

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

You’ve got to give young Andrew Demeter a lot of credit. Given the chance to meet a powerful Congresswoman, most people would melt into a sad puddle of unjustified reverence and pathetic groveling. Not this young man. When he was given the opportunity to ask Nancy Pelosi a question, he confronted her on the NSA’s unconstitutional spy practices and why she hasn’t done anything to stop it, considering she claims to be so “liberal.”

You need to check out this brief video. This kid has major cojones.





PBOC Hits Panic Button: Strengthens Currency By Most In 20 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On the heels of growing contagion concerns regarding shadow banking collateral and the “rehypothecation evaporation” and this weekend’s ‘odd’ Chinese trade data (big drop in imports, no doubt impacted by dramatic commodity invoicing swings), the PBOC has fixed the Chinese currency 0.36% in the last 2 days… the biggest strengthening in the currency since October 2012. It is unclear for now exactly what is going on but we suspect the panic button outflows as banks pull credit and unwind CCFDs are forcing China’s hand to offset CNY selling pressure… and of course China does it in grand style.

 

China’s biggest trade surplus since Jan 09… as imports tumbled 1.6% (against expectations of a 6% rise)

 

After weeks of weakening and comments on rising volatility and flexibity to tamp down the carry trade fervor, China has gone to the other extreme…

 

Whether this is to kill off the last of the momentum-chasing muppers now following the CNY weakenin trend is unclear but one thing is certain, the coincidence of such a violent move with the rising credit contagion concerns in the warehouse probes is extremely interesting.

 

Barclays provides some more color:

Barclays expects depreciating CNY and recent govt probe into commodity financing to continue to discourage commodity imports for arbitrage purposes, according to note yesterday; despite sizable trade surplus and FDI, PBOC’s FX purchase slowed markedly in recent mos., suggesting reduced capital inflows from other channels and signs of capital outflows





Where Metal Spikes Meet The Homeless: In London “The Destitute Are Now Considered Vermin”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

First, the world’s oligarchs slowly but surely took over London real estate, where as we reported last week, home prices in May soared by the most in 12 years, and now, according to the Telegraph, in order to make London into an even more exclusive enclave where only the uber-wealthy can rub shoulders, assorted luxury buildings are installing metal spikes on the ground outside to fully deter homeless people from sleeping (and hence living) there. In other words, in London homeless people have been relegated to pigeon status, as the same technique has been long used to prevent rats with wings from landing, and defecating, at select locations.

From the Telegraph:

Andrew Horton, 33, of Woking, Surrey, took the picture of the inch long studs outside the flats on Southwark Bridge Road as he walked to work on Wednesday.

Mr Horton said: “I can’t say for certain but it certainly looked like they were placed there to deter homeless people. “It’s dreadful.”

David Wells said on Twitter: “These Anti homeless studs are like the spikes they use to keep pigeons off buildings. The destitute now considered vermin [sic].

Not everyone is a stud humanist: others defended the metal protrusions.

Gavin Logan said on Twitter: “There will be a context behind those anti-homeless spikes. Possibly a last resort against someone who was aggressive and refused housing.” People living in the flats, which sell for upwards of £800,000, said the metal studs were installed two weeks ago after a number of homeless people were seen sleeping there.

 

One woman resident, who asked not to be named, said: “There was a homeless man asleep there about six weeks ago. “Then about two weeks ago all of a sudden studs were put up outside. “I presume it is to deter homeless people from sleeping there.”

 

A couple, who also asked to remain anonymous, added: “It’s because of the homeless. “The spikes have only been there very recently, less than a month.”

One guy asked the pragmatic question:

A man looking around the flats, a ten-minute walk from Southwark Underground Station, said the spikes would


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The NSA Is Seeking To Fill A Cyber Intelligence Analyst Position In Its Hawaii Location

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a world in which the Twitter account of one secret government agency, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, jokes about the topic of abuse of secrecy and personal privacy – something which back in the day resulted in the impeachment of a US president – in broad public daylight, a year after the US “turnkey totalitarian state” has been exposed for all to see…

… it can be difficult to evaluate what in this banana republic is a grotesque farce and what is reality.

The following job posting from the NSA, however, seeking an experienced Cyber Intelligence Analyst for the Honolulu, Hawaii location, is all too real. 

Which makes us wonder: is this merely an attempt by the NSA – whose every last secret is being slowly but surely revealed – to unburn bridges with the most infamous Hawaii-based NSA operative in history? Or, alternatively, is it time for another patriotic whistleblower to step in Edward’s shoes?

From the NSA:

Responsibilities
     
NSA Intelligence Analysts also support cyber! Intelligence Analysts seek creative solutions to answer cyber-related analytic questions, demonstrate a thorough understanding of the telecommunications environment and network trends of their targets, solve difficult technical problems, work independently and collaborate effectively in cyber analysis and research, apply new techniques to solve analytic problems, prepare written and oral assessments of foreign intelligence that provide unique insight into target cyber intentions unavailable from other intelligence disciplines.

NSA Intelligence Analysts perform a wide range of analytic tasks, including the following: maintain awareness of emerging cyber-related technologies; research relevant technical sources for information on foreign intelligence targets; develop query strategies to obtain relevant information; identify communication patterns; determine tactics, techniques, and procedures for intrusion sets; assess validity and relevance of foreign intelligence; profile foreign targets and their activities; report target research outcomes to customers; perform target discovery by developing strategies to obtain new information and sources for intelligence; and/or monitor target data for changes or anomalies. Additionally, NSA Intelligence Analysts are expected to take an inclusive approach to problem solving and mission accomplishments by frequently…
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The Only Chart You Need To See To Trade Japan’s GDP “Beat”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Japan’s Trade balance missed expectations once again (bigger deficit than hoped or expected), the flashing red headlines of the night belong to Japan’s 1.6% QoQ GDP print (better than expected)  – the ‘best growth’ since Q3 2011. The initial reaction was JPY weaker, which meant Nikkei higher (and oddly JGBs rallied too). But… and it’s a big but… Japanese consumer spending shot up by 2.2% in Q1 – the biggest on record… matched only by Q1 1997, the quarter before Japan’s last tax-hike decision. What happened the quarter after that? Take a look…

 

 

Now what kind of damage will that do to Q2 GDP? Let’s take a look at what happened to Japanee stocks after the same surge in “growth” in 1997….

 

So are we going to get the bounce of euphoria followed by the 40% plunge of reality?





Sector Detector: Bulls revel in the new normal, while bears lie in wait

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Scott MartindaleAfter its long-awaiting breakout of the 1900 level the other week, the S&P 500 gained another +1.3% last week alone, but this double-low progression as I call it — i.e., on extremely low volume and with persistently low volatility — is worrisome. With the 2000 level now in sight, there still remains a dearth of bullish conviction, and although the technical picture remains quite extended and overbought, there is no sign yet of bearish action to produce the elusive correction that is now so overdue that bears seem to have almost given up on it — for now. In fact, we are seeing short covering and a falling put/call ratio. Some market commentators are saying that market conditions are reminiscent of the mid-1990s. We haven’t seen a real correction in quite some time. So, is this the proverbial new normal?

History tells us that when everyone is bullish the market is near a top. But with volume low and many still underinvested and waiting for an entry point, all these indications of bullish sentiment don’t necessarily mean that everyone has already put all their money to work. So, the market can and likely will go higher. It just doesn’t normally go up in a straight line as it has done. Some backing and filling is normal and healthy — and preferable.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a. fear gauge, closed last week at 10.73, which set another new 52-week low. Although some observers are predicting single digits for the VIX, the greater likelihood is a mean reversion sometime soon, which could bring it back up to test the 15 threshold once again.

The 10-year yield remains below 2.60% and may yet fall further. This is at least partly because of ECB monetary stimulus to stave off the threat of disinflation in Europe. Moreover, as I mentioned last week, the flattening yield curve here in the U.S. is also a signal that investors believe the Fed cannot raise rates without tanking the economy. However, others are now opining that the despite the zero-interest rate policy, there is not much lending and borrowing for capital expenditures and growth. Rather, they say that the free money is being used for generating low-risk trading profits or for buying back stock to prop up EPS valuations, creating a troubling asset bubble…
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Socialism Comes To Seattle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man blog,

Seattle Bows to Demand of Socialist Councilwoman Kshama Sawant

Economic science has long shown that labor is not magically exempted from the laws of supply and demand. Therefore, minimum wage laws hurt rather than help workers, especially those with few skills or those just starting out, who are on the lowest rungs of the ladder. If one wants to raise youth unemployment and price unskilled workers out of the market, there is no surer way than introducing a minimum wage – especially one that is far higher than what the market can bear.

Note that a great deal of so-called ‘pro labor’ legislation that instituted wage minimums has only belatedly adjusted the legal minimum wage to levels the market economy was already able to provide, due to the increase in capital invested per worker.  If the extent of the legally mandated minimum wage does not exceed what the market can bear, it mainly serves to polish the image of politicians, while the harm is at least limited. This is however not to say that there is no harm done at all by the introduction of such wage price controls, even if the levels seem reasonable.

After all, the economy is subject to frequent booms and busts under the current monetary regime, and if wages are inflexible to the downside, unemployment will tend to soar during the bust phases. The huge unemployment rates during the Great Depression were a direct result of president Hoover ‘persuading’ companies not to drop wage rates, in spite of a sharp fall in prices and a genuine money supply deflation.

Seattle is one of the few municipalities in the US boasting of an openly socialist council member, Ksahma Sawant. As the author of this article at Forbes rightly notes, it is quite astonishing that this purveyor of bad economics (she not only supports minimum wage laws, but also rent controls and it seems she wants Amazon to be nationalized as well) is actually teaching an economics course at the Seattle Central Community College.

As a politician, one of her central demands was the introduction of a $15/hr. Minimum wage in Seattle. The city council has now bowed to this demand, a decision that is likely to prove extremely destructive, especially to small…
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“For The Chosen, One”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

E Pluribus, Unum!

 

 

Source: Investors.com via Sunday Funnies





The Part-Time Employment Ratio: Slight Improvement in May

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Let’s take a close look at Friday’s employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. Buried near the bottom of Table A-9 of the government’s Employment Situation Summary are the numbers for Full- and Part-Time Workers, with 35-or-more hours as the arbitrary divide between the two categories. The focus is on total hours worked: Full-time status may result from multiple part-time jobs.

The Labor Department has been collecting this since 1968, a time when only 13.5% of US employees were part-timers. That number peaked at 20.1% in January 2010. The latest data point, over four years later, is only modestly lower at 18.5% last month, although this is a new interim low.

Here is a visualization of the trend in the 21st century, with the percentage of full-time employed on the left axis and the part-time employed on the right. We see a conspicuous crossover during Great Recession.

The Impact of the Great Recession

Here is a closer look since 2007. The reversal began in 2008, but it accelerated in the Fall of that year following the September 15th bankruptcy of Lehmann Brothers. In this seasonally adjusted data the reversal peaked in early 2010. Four years later the spread has narrowed, but we’re still a long way from the ratio before the Great Recession.

The two charts above are seasonally adjusted and include the entire workforce, which the CPS defines as age 16 and over. A problem inherent in using this broadest of cohorts is that it includes the population that adds substantial summertime volatility to the full-time/part-time ratio, namely, high school and college students. Also the 55-plus cohort includes a subset of employees that opt for part-time employment during the decade following the historical peak spending years (ages 45-54) and as a transition toward retirement.

The Core Workforce: Ages 25-54

The next chart reduces the summertime volatility problem by focusing on the 25-54 workforce. Note that the government’s full-time/part-time data for this cohort is only available as non-seasonally adjusted. To help us recognize the summer seasonality that remains, I’ve used a lighter color for the summer-month markers, which are the most subject to temporary shifts from part-time to 35-plus hours of employment. I’ve also included 12-month moving averages for the two series to help us identify the slope of the trend in recent years.

Like…
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Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

 

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Slides As Trade Tensions Escalate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

S&P futures were lower on Wednesday as investors sought safety in bonds, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in muted trade amid renewed worries over the U.S.-China spat after reports Washington is considering cutting off the flow of American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products, expanding the US crackdown on China beyond Huawei to include world leaders in video surveillance. The dollar and 10Y yield were unchanged ahead of today's FOMC Minutes.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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