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Whipsaw Wednesday – The Wild Ride Continues

And up we go again!  

Fortunately, as PSW, we are able to calmly view the action with bemused detachment because we are in CASH!!! and don't give a damn what the market does from day to day.  

Meanwhile, there are plenty of opportunities to make money off the up and down action, like the call I made yesterday, right in the morning post, to short the S&P Futures at 2,105, which paid $1,150 per contract at 2,082 by 3:30 – not bad for a day's work.  

For the non-Futures players, we also mentioned the FXI June $50 puts, which opened at $1.45 and finished the day at $1.82 – up 25% for the day!

 Oil only fell from $60.45 to $60.20 at first ($250 per contract) but, in our Live Trading Webinar, we caught a great move down from $61 all the way back to $60.45 for a $550 per contract improvement and this morning, we jumped in short again on /CL (Oil Futures) at $62 and already caught our first $500 gain, down to $61.50 – looking for a reload as we head into the inventory report at 10:30.  Hopefully, we'll get another nice intra-day spike to short into (we can also go long at $61.50 while we wait).  

FXI WEEKLYThis kind of flexibility comes from being in a CASH!!! position.  We still have plenty of opportunities to add positions (a Top Trade Alert was issued just this morning on Coffee) and, even as I'm writing this (8:15 am, EST), the Dollar is once again being pushed down in order to engineer the LOOK of a rally in the indexes and commodities – once again looking to steer the sheeple back into the market so Cramer's buddies can dump their shares on them.  

Today, we're not going to be the least bit impressed by anything less than the strong bounces predicted by our 5% Rule™, which are:

  • Dow 17,950 (weak) and 18,000 (strong)
  • S&P 2,096 (weak) and 2,102 (strong) 
  • Nasdaq 4,975 (weak) and 5,000 (strong) 
  • NYSE 11,080 (weak) and 11,110 (strong) 
  • Russell 1,220 (weak) and 1,225 (strong)

As you can see from the Big Chart, the 50-day moving averages have held up so far, except on the Russell – which failed and now won't really impress anyone until it climbs back over.  Usually, we need 3 of 5 indexes to confirm a move but I'd say that, if ANY of the other indexes fail their 50 dma before the Russell retakes 1,247 – that's going to be a clear signal of a very bearish turn in the indexes.  

SPY DAILYWe went over our hedges in yesterday's live webinar, so I won't bore you with them here.  The S&P and the Dow are, so far, our lagging indexes to the downside, both 2.5% higher than the Russell so, if you think you need more hedges – those are the indexes I'd concentrate on.  

Our Short-Term Portfolio is probably not bearish enough as we only finished the day yesterday up 123.6%, which was flat to the weekend's review.  Ideally, we should have made some money but we were too short on oil, which is having a good week.  Fortunately, we're bullish on the oil sector in the Long-Term Portfolio, and that's posted a nice $5,200 gain in two trading days – so the week isn't a total waste.  

Of course we're not going to have dramatic gains since we're 90% in CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I love cash lately?) but thank God we're not dealing with the drama of the German Bond Market, where rates have jumped 438% in less than 30 days.  

Sure rates started off at 0.1%, which was idiotically low – but that didn't stop idiots from buying those bonds and those idiots are getting badly burned on that massive spike higher.  German inflation numbers are coming in hotter than expected (by Economorons, not by us!) and now there's talk of forgiving some of Greece's debt, which effectively takes German money out of circulation – because they will NEVER get it back!  

That's caused BUNT, the 3x German Bond ETF, to fall 13% (so far) in two weeks, shocking complacent investors who thought these things only go up.  

Meanwhile, Germany's Manufacturing PMI hit a 2-month low this morning, falling back to 54.1 but that's still expanding.  France, on the other hand, was only 50.6 – barely holding it's ground despite gargantuan EU stimulus.  In fact, when you consider that this is the first month of Draghi's $70Bn monthly stimulus package – it's very scary that the Composite PMI for the Eurozone FELL from 54 in March to 53.9 in April.  Not much of a fall, but why should there be a fall at all?  

“Growth in Germany remained reasonably robust, but the weakening also highlights how firms need to remain focused on competitiveness, especially in manufacturing, where export growth remains worryingly meager despite the weaker euro.” 

“France, however, saw growth slow to near stagnation, suggesting the government needs to worker harder to boost competitiveness and lift confidence among both business and consumers if France is not to be left behind in the euro area’s recovery."

China's PMI was already pathetic and the rest of Asia was not picking up the slack so where exactly is this supposed demand for oil coming from?  Well, to sum it up in a nutshell – it's nothing but fake, Fake, FAKE orders at the NYMEX where there are currently 383,780 1,000-barrel contracts ordered for delivery to Cushing, OK in June.

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Jun'15 60.72 62.08 60.62 62.00 08:52
May 06

 


-
1.60 64886 60.40 383780 Call Put
Jul'15 61.74 63.12 61.71 63.06 08:52
May 06

 


-
1.56 12777 61.50 264041 Call Put
Aug'15 62.40 63.68 62.28 63.61 08:52
May 06

 


-
1.50 5190 62.11 84134 Call Put
Sep'15 62.89 64.06 62.80 63.95 08:52
May 06

 


-
1.41 6207 62.54 154877 Call Put
Oct'15 63.08 64.36 63.04 64.26 08:52
May 06

 


-
1.32 4233 62.94 83990 Call Put
Nov'15 63.49 64.73 63.44 64.63 08:52
May 06

 


-
1.27 3101 63.36 58697 Call Put
Dec'15 63.95 65.09 63.81 64.97 08:52
May 06

 


-
1.22 11031 63.75 211814 Call Put
Jan'16 64.48 65.27 64.48 65.20 08:52
May 06

 


-
1.16 1328 64.04 56042 Call Put

The problem with ordering almost 400M barrels of oil for delivery to Cushing in June is that Cushing only has capacity for 50M barrels and, by the way, it's full.  Adding 400M barrels to Cushing's stockpile would give us 100M weekly builds on the inventory reports – where just 5M extra barrels can send oil crashing down.  

So, of course, all of those FAKE orders need to be cancelled but the contracts expire on May 20th, which means the Fakers trading at the NYMEX have just 10 days to cancel 383,000 contracts or pay to roll them to longer months.  That can, and will, lead to some exciting volatility over the next couple of weeks and, at the moment, we're accepting those fake orders to buy oil at $62 by pretending we have oil to sell and shorting those contracts – we'll see who breaks first!  

 


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  1. /CL-Phil on Bloomberg this morning they have guests telling us that if there is any draw in the EIA report we could see a move to $65 as shorts cover! But with 650m barrels (june 383.7 july 264) to roll in two weeks I wonder what is wrong with the picture. But as we know they have an amazing ability to hide this stuff and fake us out. So, you are betting with a short at 62,but will you take your bets off before the inventory or do you have conviction that it will support your short ?


  2. Good Morning!


  3. Crazy move yesterday is giving us crazy oil lines:

    R3 – 65.68
    R2 – 63.67
    R1 – 62.64
    PP – 60.63
    S1 – 59.60
    S2 – 57.60
    S3 – 56.56


  4. Good morning 


  5. What is interesting is that yesterday we had some very tight lines – less that $4 between R3 and S3 and that low volatility usually precedes a big move and we got that yesterday although R3 held pretty much all day until 10:00 PM when it seems that Asia got in the act!


  6. Good morning!  


  7. /CL- I guess I should have waited for the rest of your morning post since you answered me while I was asking. Now you are a mind reader too!


  8. 1993: Montreal Canadiens win the Stanley Cup finals - According to ESPN, this riot caused "$2.5 million in damages as 168 people were arrested and 115 injured."

    1984: Detroit Tigers win the World Series - As the Baltimore Sun noted, eight rapes were reported, one person died and 80 were injured after the Detroit Tigers won their first World Series in more than a decade.

    Yeah, white people know how to riot too – just for stupider reasons…


  9. Might effect some oil plays, maybe not CL but if you have stock in certain companies who operate in the area:

     

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-election-2015-energy-sector-braces-for-change-with-ndp-win-1.3062700


  10. Freightliner Just Revealed The First Real Road-Legal Autonomous Big RigAutonomous trucks/QC – I love how the article says there will be a monitor on board.  How long will that last?  There are 3.5M truck drivers in the US and drivers make about $50K and makes up about 0.30 of the truck's $1.73 per mile operating costs (20%).  The net profit on a truck for the owner is 0.048 per mile – eliminate the driver and you make 6x more profit!  

    No one is making autonomous trucks just to have a driver sit there anyway…  

    Oil/Craigs – Yes, whenever they are pumping oil you see a parade of guests on the MSM raising targets – that's their job!  They love to say scary things like "shorts will have to cover" but we just posted news yesterday that oil contacts are the most bullish they've been in years – there are no shorts left.  Those people are lying to you.  That doesn't mean it won't work, because you can some of the people all of the time (and all of the people some of the time) – so all we can do is take a poke here and there and hope we don't lose too much while we wait for a nice drop.  

    Oil is already up 2.5% at $62 off the anticipation of a draw since the API was favorable but that means they are set up for disappointment if there's even a small build.  

    Meanwhile – it's a ridiculously dangerous trade so I wouldn't have too many shorts and also nothing you aren't going to be happy to DD and ride out for a week or so with a massive loss!  

    $65.68/StJ – Ow, that would hurt.  But, of course, $56.56 would be lovely, so too tempting not to play.  

    Dollar below 94.50 is another factor keeping things up but already the indexes are crumbling, probably because Yellen isn't saying anything particularly doveish at the IMF.  


  11. Falling Knife Trade – Sold some AVP 2017 $5 puts @ .75.  Think it's worth a shot at $4.25.


  12. Mind reading/Craigs – Just talking about the most important thing in the market today.  

    Alberta/Crs – About time Canada gets some revenues from those guys.  

    1,210 worth a bullish toss on /TF (tight stops below).  17,800 on /YM too.  Lined up with 2,078.5 on /ES and 4,380 on /NQ.  /NKD at 19,315 and also a good long over 19,300 but I'm not bullish – just looking for bullish hedges.  


  13. Lagarde notes Voltaire, Rousseau and Aristotle in her IMF speech.  Yellen, being an American, thinks these are people they're having lunch with later…  cool


  14. Phil – I really enjoy the comics on society's woes, though it can be depressing when you realize the bullsh*t is so obvious….. :(


  15. Phil – Carl Icahn is going to provide more info on his Apple theses next week ( based on last week's tweet) i think this should be good for move up.  do you see any sort of play on this?


  16. Alberta oil – back in the 80s Alberta had used oil earnings to establish a fund that was used to treat, for free, all cancer patients. Wonder what became of that.


    • Dow +0.5% to 18,018.50. S&P +0.42% to 2,098.20. Nasdaq +0.45% to 4,961.73.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.26%. 10-yr -0.04%. 5-yr flat.
    • Commodities: Crude +2.24% to $61.75. Gold +0.08% to $1,194.20.
    • Currencies: Euro +0.91% vs. dollar. Yen -0.16%. Pound -0.3%.

    • In addition to private sector job gains of just 169K in April (vs. 205K consensus), March was revised to 175K from 189K and February to 200K from 212K. Offsetting that were revisions higher in January, December, and November. Taken together it paints an even starker picture of a sizable slowdown in employment gains over the first four months of the year.
    • There remains something larger going on in fixed income (globally) than U.S. economic data points, and Treasury yields are ignoring the number, the 10-year still up two basis points on the session at 2.21%. TLT -0.85%
    • Previously: The bond rout continues (May 6)
    • Full ADP report
    • Asian stocks outside of Japan (which is closed for holiday) fell again today, marking the second heavy sell-off this week after the RBA cut rates and reports that Chinese brokerages are tightening margin requirements.
    • Data on Tuesday showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened in March to its highest level in more than six years, sending Wall Street down to its biggest one-day percentage decline since March.
    • Australia: S&P ASX 200 -2.3%. Asia: Shanghai -1.6%; Hang Seng -0.4%; BSE Sensex-2.4%.

    U.K. services growth accelerates

    • U.K. services growth unexpectedly accelerated this month, countering signs that the economy was slowing before Thursday's knife-edge general election.
    • Markit's services PMI climbed to an eight-month high of 59.5 in April from 58.9 in March, beating forecasts for a decline to 58.5.
    • The latest opinion polls seem to show the Conservatives with a slight lead over Labour, although neither are on track to command a majority in the parliament.

    Greece makes payment to IMF, worries remain

    • Greece has made a €200M interest payment to the IMF that fell due on Wednesday, although concerns over its future continued to rattle European markets.
    • Athens faces another €750M repayment obligation to the IMF on May 12 and many commentators are struggling to see where the money is going to come from.
    • The cash-strapped country still remains in a deadlock with creditors over its next tranche of bailout funding.
    • ETFs: GREK

    The bond rout continues

    • A worldwide selloff in government bonds deepened today, buoyed by rising German Bund yields that recently hit record highs and narrowed their gap with U.S. Treasuries.
    • Benchmark 10-year Bunds now trade at 0.53%, having hit a record low of 0.05% last month, when many expected them to turn negative.
    • The vicious bond market meltdown is also raising pressing questions for investors – is this a correction or merely a trend change?

    JPMorgan in 'advanced' talks to settle forex probe

    • According to its latest quarterly filing, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) is in "advanced stages" of settlement talks with the DOJ and Federal Reserve over previously disclosed foreign exchange investigations.
    • The bank said the amount it may lose related to litigation in excess of legal reserves could be as much as $5.5B as of March 31, down from $5.8B three months earlier.
    • SEC Form 10-Q
    • Previously: FT: Next mega forex settlement scheduled for mid-May (Apr. 21 2015)

    Brookfield Asset Management higher after earnings beat

    • Q1 FFO of $557M or $0.82 per share vs. $492M and $0.72 one year ago.
    • Asset management fees up 18% to $791M, with AUM topping $200B. Fee-bearing capital up to $93B.
    • Brookfield Property Group FFO of $283M up 37% Y/Y.
    • Renewable Energy FFO of $81M, just shy of company expectations.
    • Infrastructure Group FFO of $57M up 10% on a comp currency basis.
    • Private Equity FFO of $62M down from $94M. Company is in the middle of initiatives which should significantly boost FFO in the future, but are taking a toll for now.
    • Previously: Brookfield Asset Management beats by $0.17 (May 6)
    • BAM +0.8% premarket

    Chesapeake's Q1 earnings beat estimates, raises production outlook

    • Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) +1.5% premarket after beating Q1 earnings estimates but falling well short on revenues, and slightly raising its oil and gas production forecast for the year.
    • CHK posted adjusted EBITDA of $928M vs. $1.515B in the year-ago quarter, and cash flow fell to $910M from $1.614B, due mostly to lower realized oil, natural gas and natural gas liquid prices.
    • CHK’s Q4 average realized price for oil was $62.57/bbl, down from $85.08 in last year's Q1 and $76.40 in Q4, natural gas prices fell $0.90/MMcf Y/Y and $0.65 Q/Q, and natural gas liquids prices fell $22.46/bbl Y/Y and $6.12 Q/Q.
    • CHK says Q1 oil and gas production averaged 686K boe/day, up 14% Y/Y after adjusting for asset sales, and now expects output of 640K-650K boe/day following its earlier forecast of 635K-645K.
    • CHK operated 54 rigs on average in the quarter, compared with 67 in Q4 and 60 in the prior-year period, and expects to finish 2015 with 35-45 rigs, down 38% from an average of 64 rigs in 2014 and the lowest total since 2004.
    • Says Q1 average production costs totaled $4.84/boe, down 5% Q/Q and 2% lower Y/Y.
    • Q1 capital spending rose 8.6% Y/Y to $1.49B; reiterates guidance for $3.5B-$4B in capex for the full year.

    More on Anheuser-Busch Inbev's Q1

    • Anheuser-Busch Inbev (NYSE:BUD) reports organic revenue growth of 6.2% in Q1.
    • Total volumes declined by 1.2% for the period.
    • Global brands delivered solid volume growth of 4.6%.
    • Own beer volume declined 1%.
    • Revenue breakdown: United States: $3.26B (-4.8%); Mexico: $893M (-14.30%); Brazil: $2.27B (-8.61%); China: $997M (+16.88%).
    • Gross margin rate increased 20 bps to 59.8%.
    • Normalized EBIT margin rate grew 120 bps to 30.7%.
    • FY2015 Guidance: Tax rate: 22% to 24%; Capex: ~$4.3B.
    • BUD +3.33% premarket. 
    • Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) reaffirms its previous 2015 EPS guidance of $4.32-$4.42 at its annual shareholder meeting.
    • The company expects free cash flow this year to be roughly in-line with last year's level.
    • Shareholders are voting on board nominees and executive compensation at today's meeting.
    • SEC Form 8-K
    • PM +0.8% premarket.
    • Children's Place (NASDAQ:PLCE) moves higher in premarket action after coming off a trading halt.
    • The company pre-announced Q1 EPS of $0.81-$0.83 vs. prior guidance of $0.60-$0.65.
    • Comparable retail sales ares projected to have risen 0.7% during the quarter.
    • Also holding some sway with investors is a New York Post story on the company hiring Goldman Sachs to help it explore a sale, although that piece of news was disclosed last month.
    • Previously: Children's Place halted after report of sale process (May. 06 2015)
    • PLCE +9.35% premarket to $68.02.

    Optimization and reimaging at Wendy's starts to pay off

    • Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN) says same-restaurants sales increased 3.2% system-wide inQ1.
    • Higher sales at stores that were part of a reimaging program were a significant factor.
    • North America company-owned restaurant margin +160 bps to 14.7%.
    • G&A expenses fell 14.3% to $60.3M on a system optimization push.
    • Adjusted EBITDA margin +360 bps to 18.0% off the same system optimization improvements.
    • The company says it plans to sell its bakery operations.
    • Guidance: High single-digit EPS growth seen for 2016 and 2017 before a return to mid-to-high teen EPS growth.
    • Previously: Wendy's beats by $0.01, misses on revenue
    • WEN +0.7% premarket
    • Execs with Noodles (NASDAQ:NDLS) were on the defensive during the firm's earnings call yesterday.
    • Analysts are puzzled as to why the chain is struggling in the key markets of Austin, Washington D.C., and Colorado (Noodles' original home).
    • CEO Kevin Reddy indicated the company is considering making some changes.
    • "So I really think it’s the time in nurturing to become kind of a local, by local concept we need for overcome the resistance of a national brand," said Reddy.
    • It's a slightly curious comment from the leader of a national brand.
    • Noodles earnings call transcript
    • Previously: Noodles & Company misses by $0.02, misses on revenue (May. 05 2015)
    • Previously: Noodles whacked after lowering guidance below expectations (May. 05 2015)
    • Shares of NDLS are down 18.3% and sit at 52-week lows.

    SodaStream revenue falls as water transition progresses

    • SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA) reports sales in the Americas region declined 34% Y/Y to $22.8 during Q1.
    • Sales in Western Europe fell 13% to $54.6M.
    • Product segment growth: Soda maker/starter kits -15% to $27.5M, Consumables -24% to $63M.
    • SodaStream's gross margin rate remained flat at 52.3%.
    • Sales and marketing spend ratio -350 bps to 35.5% as advertising was lightened.
    • The company ended the quarter with a cash position of $40.6M and bank debt of $45.8M (+4.3% Q/Q).
    • A launch of a new line of sparkling water flavors is planned for later this year.
    • SODA -0.1% premarket to $19.10.

     

    • Mylan (MYL -0.6%) Q1 results: Revenues: $1,871.7M (+9.1%); COGS: $1,041.6M (+6.5%); R&D Expense: $169.9M (+44.0%); SG&A: $483.2M (+27.9%); Operating Income: $159.3M (-33.3%); Net Income: $56.6M (-51.2%); EPS: $0.13 (-55.2%); Quick Assets: $277.2M (+22.9%).
    • No guidance given.
    • Gilead Sciences (GILDacquires privately-held EpiTherapeutics ApS for $65M in cash. The Copenhagen-based firm develops cancer drugs based on epigenetics, the "on-off" switches for gene expression. Its development programs are focused on enzymes that are involved in the regulation of transcription (copying of DNA) in cancer, specifically histone demethylases and methyltransferases.
    • Thinly-traded micro cap Ardelyx (NASDAQ:ARDX) is down 26% premarket on light turnover in response to its announcement that a Phase 2a clinical trial evaluating its lead product candidate tenapanor in patients with Stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) who also had type 2 diabetes and albuminuria (excess protein in the urine) failed to achieve its primary efficacy endpoint of decreasing the urinary albumin-creatinine ratio compared to placebo.
    • The specific endpoint of the 154-subject study was a statistically significant decrease in the albumin-creatinine ratio from baseline to Week 12 versus placebo. The test group showed a 16% reduction compared to 11% for control.
    • The company entered into a collaboration agreement with AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) in October 2012 to develop and commercialize tenapanor. AstraZeneca is currently reviewing the data from this trial along with results from other studies to determine a path forward. It is obligated to inform Ardelyx no later than June 29 if it decides to cease development of tenapanor. If it decides to pursue only the irritable bowel syndrome with constipation (IBS-C) indication, Ardelyx will be entitled to a $10M milestone payment. If it decides to pursue additional indications, it will be entitled to a $20M milestone.
    • Ardelyx President & CEO Mike Raab says, "Should AstraZeneca decide to return the program to us, we seek to be in a position to initiate a Phase 3 clinical program for tenapanor in IBS-C in the fourth quarter of 2015. Additionally, we intend to be prepared to continue the development of tenapanor for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in CKD patients on dialysis."
    • Thinly-traded nano cap Fate Therapeutics (NASDAQ:FATE) jumps 80% premarket on robust volume in response to its announcement of a four-year collaboration with Juno Therapeutics (NASDAQ:JUNO) to identify and utilize small molecules to modulate Juno's T cell product candidates to improve their therapeutic potential.
    • Fate will be responsible for screening and identifying small molecules that modulate the biological properties of engineered T cells. Juno will be responsible for the development and commercialization of engineered T cell immunotherapies incorporating Fate's small molecule modulators. Juno has the option to extend the exclusive research term for two years via an additional payment and continued funding of collaboration activities.
    • Under the terms of the agreement, Juno will pay an upfront fee of $5M to Fate and purchase 1M shares of Fate common stock at $8 per share (yesterday's close was $4.86). Juno will fund all mutual collaboration activities for an exclusive four-year term. Fate will be eligible to receive a $50M target selection fee, clinical, regulatory and commercial milestones and low single-digit royalties for each product developed by Juno that incorporates Fate's modulators. Fate retains exclusive rights to its intellectual property for all purposes outside of programmed chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) and T cell receptor (TCR) immunotherapies.
    • 3D Systems' (NYSE:DDD) Q1 results were slightly better than the guidance provided in itsApril 24 warning. However, citing "marketplace uncertainties," the company is withdrawing its full-year guidance and declining to provide new guidance for now. "Management … plans to provide an update regarding guidance when management has more clarity that sector conditions have stabilized."
    • The 2015 capex budget is now at $25M (it was previously at 3% of revenue), and 3D plans to "substantially moderate its M&A activities for the remainder of this year." One silver lining: Q2 bookings are above where they were at this point in Q1.
    • While total revenue rose 9% Y/Y in Q1, organic revenue (excludes M&A) fell 7%. Somewhat echoing Stratasys, 3D states forex and "demand weakness attributed to several other macroeconomic factors" hurt printer demand from auto and healthcare customers, and that "certain metal and nylon applications and performance issues delayed its ability to sell additional printers."
    • Segment/regional performance: Product revenue fell 2% to $99.8M; services revenue rose 31% to $60.9M. Direct metal printers (+39%), healthcare revenue (+38%), and consumer revenue (+65% on 169% unit growth) were strong points. Americas revenue (lifted by acquisitions) rose 27%. Thanks in part to forex, EMEA revenue only rose 2%, and Asia-Pac fell 20% (Japan was weak).
    • Financials: Gross margin was 49.2%, up from Q4's 47.9% and down from Q1 2014's 51.1%. GAAP operating expenses rose 46% Y/Y (well above rev. growth) to $96.5M – SG&A spend was $74.3M, and R&D $22.2M. 3D ended March with $200M in cash, and almost no debt.
    • Shares have fallen to $22.86 premarket, making new 52-week lows in the process.
    • Q1 resultsPR.
    • Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) new Xeon E7 v3 server CPU line follows the Sep. 2014 launch of the company's Xeon E5 v3 (Grantley) line. Whereas Grantley is aimed at smaller servers (1-4 CPUs) going into distributed HPC systems or hyperscale Web/cloud data centers, the E7 v3 line is aimed at high-end/mission-critical servers running up to 32 CPUs.
    • Like Grantley, E7 CPUs are made using Intel's 22nm Haswell architecture and support up to 18 cores (the prior-gen E7 v2 supports up to 15) able to run two threads at a time. With an eye towards catering to memory-intensive analytics and in-memory database workloads (a rapidly growing market segment), the chips support up to 45MB of Level 3 cache and up to 1.5TB of DRAM per CPU socket (Intel claims this is an industry high).
    • 17 OEMs, including HP, Dell, Cisco, Lenovo, and Oracle, plan to launch E7 v3 servers. Intel is counting on the CPUs to take further high-end share from RISC CPU lines such as Oracle's SPARC and IBM's Power. IBM is trying to drive a rebound in Power sales by licensing the platform to 3rd-party OEMs and CPU developers; its massive Power8 CPUs support up to 12 cores and 8 threads/core.
    • Analyst Patrick Moorhead argues Intel is "closing the gap" with RISC vendors on the high-end with its latest offerings. "If you want the absolutely highest performance on SAP, you would look to IBM, but it comes with some caveats. The big difference comes in performance per dollar, where Intel-based systems from HP, Dell, or Lenovo could perform better by 5-10x versus an IBM Power-based system."

    FAA to announce new drone initiative

    • In an apparent shift in attitude, the FAA is planning to announce an initiative today to study drone flights beyond the sight of an operator, WSJ reports.
    • Until now, the agency has virtually banned such flights, including for research, and even proposed rules earlier this year that would prohibit them.
    • Both Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), which are seeking to use drones for package delivery, say U.S. regulators have recently become more receptive to their efforts.


  17. Yellen said "equity market valuations at this point are generally quite high" – I wonder if anyone is listening?

    AVP/Albo – Watch your fingers!  

    Obvious/1020 – Sadly, yes.  

    AAPL/Batman – I think I'll try not to let Carl Icahn determine my decision to enter or exit an AAPL position – just so I can feel like I have some sort of independent thought…  wink

    Alberta/Snow – Like the US, the lockbox was raided when the Conservatives took power.   Why waste money on dying poor people when living rich people need tax breaks? 

    Interestingly, the RUT held support today (so far) higher (1,209) than yesterday (1,207.5).  Remember, if we're going to turn around – that's what we expect to see from the RUT (a bit of recovery leadership).  

    Oil still $61.99 but not as impressive since the Dollar is now 94.075.  In fact, that makes everything less impressive, so I'm still bearish.  


  18. Oil draw of 3.9Mb – much more than API – that's kicking oil up to $62.50.

    Gasoline up by 400K and Distillates up by 1.5Mb so about the same net draw as API but the headline carries the day.  

    Still, the move was anticipated so I'm adding shorts on /CL at $62.50 to avg $62.25 on 10 and, of course, I'm out as soon as possible since we didn't get the disappointing build we had hoped for.  


  19. LOL – that was fast!  Back to 5 short at $62.25 with tight stops (already $62.18 so even is now the stop).


  20. WTF?!?  U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 6.5 million barrels per day last week, down by 905,000 barrels per day from the previous week.


  21. USO/UCO – 2016/2017 calls are just killing it. I like this new strategy of mine: It pays to buy stuff when it's cheap. 


  22. RIG may push through to the 200 day. Risky though, they need to show they kept the damage well-contained in tomorrow night's report.


  23. Phil / AAPL – Phil,  I don't follow Carl in / out of stocks – but he tends to move stocks when he speaks… Sort of like the any other big name / Fed folks.


  24. CNBC spinning oil with every guest, regardless of the actual topic.  

    RIG starting to look like an actual stock! 

    VXX is disappointing after the VIX punched up 2.5% for the day (now failing 15, so panic over):


  25. AAPL/Batman – There's a limit to how much even Icahn can move a $730Bn stock.  Generally, the way to play guys like that is to go against the play he's herding all the sheep into.  This guy is NEVER telling you to buy a stock before he's done buying and, more often than not, he's telling you to buy so he has someone to sell to.  


  26. Phil / SCO - 

    Sold the SCO Jul 45 Puts.  Where is a good point to double down on these?   Oil at 65 or some other point?  thanks,


  27. phil,

    morning….great line re yellen thinking lunch with voltaire etc……


  28. Phil/CNBC – LOL, if they had a poet come on the show, the anchor would ask "what rhymes with oil"?


  29. PTBI has gone from 3 to 11 in two days.  90 RSI.  News was that Soros bought 5% of company.  No options on it.


  30. taking UCO profits and putting it into puts for short term coverage. All my oil is long term at this point anyways (stock or 2016/2017's)

    PTBI – should've gambled at 6 for some follow thru! Maybe next time….


  31. if CHK hangs around the 50 day for a couple of days it's a good time to get in IMO


  32. SCO/Batman – I wouldn't double down, frankly.  If they don't go your way, there's no telling how high oil can go.  I'd just wait and see if a move up sticks and save the money for rolling out to longer months (and lower strikes) if you have to.   You have to be realistic – SCO was at $30 in Oct, now you sold puts at $52.50, doubling down before $30 ($90 oil) can get you in real trouble.  

    Thanks Mill – I'll be here all week, don't forget to tip your waitress!  cheeky

    LOL BDC!  Maybe we should open a comedy club.  

    That Yellen comment on valuations is finally getting some traction.  It's amazing how we can have information that long before others catch on…

    PTBI/Rustle – 5% of it?  That's just $10M (was probably less than $5M when he bought it).  It's good to be the king….

    George Soros Buys Stake in Cancer Treatment Company

    Nice move down on oil now – wheeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!


  33. Take $1,000 and run on the oil trade?  


  34. $1,000/Bruce – Well, now that we're below, I'd say set a stop there for sure, but I think we can do better.  Still, very tight stops on half (3 of 5 left for me).  

    And there's $61!  I'm done – too much staring for me and we have plenty of short options in the portfolios to make me happy if we fall further than this. 

    Already I miss my oil shorts…  surprise

    Europe closed flattish.  

    Dollar off the floor at 94.25.  If it rises, that's more pressure on oil.  


  35.  PANW – what a monster. Earnings May 27.


  36. Option prices jumped around so much with bid/ask spreads (on some of mine) going from zero to 1.45, is a useless view of 'portfolio value' today.


  37. Good Morning All!

    This week's webinar replay is available on our YouTube channel here:

    http://youtu.be/_awDQUmOFoc

     

    Or downloadable from webex here: http://bit.ly/050515Replay


  38. HOS – last earnings not bad and looking like a bottom has been established. Newbuild fleet at work with a few more vessels still to come. No dividend though and light on options.


  39. PANW/Scott – Wow, they must just have a printing press with that kind of rock-steady growth.

    Value/Scott – That's why I keep stressing that you need to UNDERSTAND options well enough that you are smarter than your brokers' programs, which generally are useless for telling you how much options are actually worth.  It's hard to get used to the disconnect.  

    Oil finally stopped falling at $60.60 – what a ride!  

    Suddenly CNBC doesn't mention it. 

    Now it's cheap enough to burn again:

    • A BNSF (BRK.ABRK.B) train carrying crude oil derailed and burst into flames this morning near Heimdal, N.D., forcing the evacuation of the small town.
    • The derailment involved a train with 109 cars, five of which reportedly are burning; 6-7 cars were derailed in the incident, although the cause is not yet known.
    • The derailment occurred less than a week after the U.S. government proposed new rules to improve the safe transportation of crude oil.

  40. How badly would this freak you out if you were driving along?


  41. BNSF – now even Berkshire is in the rent-a-spill business!? Dang.


  42. Phil, good job on /CL !   This has been my most profitable day trading oil. Thanks.


  43. NYA  -11015 must be supported or we are heading further down.


  44. You're welcome Albo!   Now all you have to do is learn not to trade on all those other days…  wink

    Quote of the day from Buffett:

    Stock prices will always be far more volatile than cash-equivalent holdings. Over the long term, however, currency-denominated instruments are riskier investments – far riskier investments – than widely-diversified stock portfolios that are bought over time and that are owned in a manner invoking only token fees and commissions. That lesson has not customarily been taught in business schools, where volatility is almost universally used as a proxy for risk. Though this pedagogic assumption makes for easy teaching, it is dead wrong: Volatility is far from synonymous with risk. Popular formulas that equate the two terms lead students, investors and CEOs astray.

    Speaking of volatile:  

    Good article written by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar:

    What happened in Baltimore isn’t just a one-and-done situation. This wasn’t just a slight sprain in the ankle that we’ll be able to walk off by morning. This was a violently shattered bone that will have America limping forward on crutches for months to come, maybe even years.

    One thing that history has taught us is that civil unrest is rarely just about what incites the incident. 

    Meanwhile:

    4 ‘extremists’ in Germany arrested in ‘plot’ to attack Islamic targets

    Fed's Yellen says equity valuations high, warns of 'potential dangers'

    Fortress’s Michael Novogratz: The bull market in bonds is over

     

    Embedded image permalink

    North Carolina finds water contamination in 93 percent of tested homes near coal ash ponds

    Setting up for a Crude crash after the mysterious rally as Opec unlikely to cut in June.

    Of all the myths about the efficacy of GOP administrations, this may be the most ludicrous

    's SolarCity says Tesla's new battery "doesn't really make financial sense"

    Greece makes $224 million IMF payment, but has to tap pensions and civil servant salaries:

    Greek Deal On Monday "Not Possible" MNI Reports Despite Troika Attempt To Reconcile Differences

    Embedded image permalink


  45. Are you saying the Must Hold Line must hold, Den?  cool


  46. I played /TF a little earlier today, but it's not looking so good…just bouncing around and looks like it wants to  head down..just my 2c


  47. They all want to head down – not even weak bounces so far.  


  48. Phil / SCO – thanks… rolling to another strike makes sense – I"M out.


  49. PEP entered play Jan17 BCS 85/97.5 for 6.90 and sold 85 put for 5.45 


  50. You're welcome Batman.

    Oil struggling to hold $60.50 but Dollar still weak at 94.  Big trouble if it jumps up.  

    Indexes just looking sad.  

    PEP/Yodi – I would love them if they got cheaper.

    Oddly quiet for a Weds, not much news either.  


  51. Phil I agree but we said this as well with with LMT at 186 today was up to 207,still holding my trees Jan16 155/180 and Jan17 160/190 obviously with relevant puts!! Patience is the name.


  52. Busy day today with the first of 3 webinars I am presenting this week! 

    Just had one on some new business model we are trying to bring to my industry. Here is a quick video (2 minutes) on what we are trying to do for those who are interested. Pretty exciting:

    https://vimeo.com/124023052

    It's pretty current actually, like the Uber or Airbnb of the translation business!


  53. phil,

    your thoughts re sold 10x xrt may 103 call for 1.20….bgt 10 may 100 put 1.45………after a brief run down sold half 5x of the 97 put for 1.00…my original thoughts were to have 5 free puts plus. if it went down….let  this play out or is there a strategy/thought process to optimize ………..tks


  54. stjeanluc 
    May 6th, 2015 at 2:37 pm | 

    SMARTCAT

     EXCELLENT


  55. Thanks Qc – still work in progress but the potential is huge!


  56. LMT/Yodi – Hey we played that one in the LTP.  Maybe KO a bit more on sale?  

    Cool video StJ, how'd you get that made?  I would have said something about people having the expertise needed to understand various specialized industries (assuming you do have that).  That's got to be the pain point for someone doing a project like that.  

    XRT/Mill – Well, I think the short May $103 calls are pretty safe but you only have 2 weeks for the May puts so you want to keep tight stops on those as you don't have time for a bounce back to fail.  In the STP, we ended up with the Sept $104 puts – lots of time for XRT to fail.

    As a new bear trade on XRT, I'd go for the June $100/96 bear put spread at $2.15, which pays $4 (+86%) in 44 days if XRT gets just a bit weaker.  That way, if XRT comes back, you can roll the long $100 puts back to Sept while the short June puts expire and then sell more, etc.  If not, then 86% is pretty good for a month and a half.  


  57. Video / Phil – That was made by the marketing guys so don't know exactly! 

    Regarding the expertise, you would be surprised. There are many people out there doing translation that have expertise in other fields but like writing better. Also keep in mind, a lot of the documents that we translate are actually a manual for something so self-explanatory! But there are 1000's of people in the industry and I have never had a problem finding someone for my projects. Get a budget and we'll get PSW in 10 languages!


  58. Phil KO looking good too buy stk 40.46 and sell the Jan17 42/38 strangle @ 5.40 which is a nice discount.


  59. Experts/Phil – yup, we're out there. In my dotage, I copy-edit (they call it proof-reading, but it isn't really) Korean articles for medical journals that have been more-or-less translated into English, and it gets me a few hundred a month. I don't think there are that many people in this particular area, although StJ may know some.


  60. Fxi looking pretty good today, are you temped to take some off the table phill???


  61. BTW, today is looking like a day where VXX will be over its 20 DMA at the end of the day! That was one of the signals to sell calls against that in my little unproven theory. 


  62. Snow – Go to proz.com and you will see many people who translate from Korean into English with some medical specialty. It's not a big language pair though – we get more English into Korean and even then, not a lot. But that's not one of our specialties.


  63. Wow, check this out: (make sure to actually stand back from your computer to see it work).

    FXI down, oil up. This is what we've been talking about since mid-march. Keep up the pseudo-long term view, it's how to buy stuff cheap. (And I' mainly telling myself this because over-trading can be a problem for me).

    TLT / damn! I always seem to think about puts at just the wrong time.


  64. My tech wow for the day:

    http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/05/neural-network-chip-built-using-memristors/#p3

    The system produced by the authors here involved only a 12-by-12 grid of memristors, so it's pretty limited in capacity. But Robert Legenstein, from Austria's Graz University of Technology, writes in an accompanying perspective that "If this design can be scaled up to large network sizes, it will affect the future of computing."

    That's because there are still many challenges where a neural network can easily outperform traditional computing hardware—and do so at a fraction of the energy cost. Even on a 30 nm process, it would be possible to place 25 million cells in a square centimeter, with 10,000 synapses on each cell. And all that would dissipate about a Watt.


  65. I just googled "Google, are you happy?"

    It's a yes/no/depends type of question. So basically, AI is not here yet. Maybe soon…


  66. Interesting bitcoin comment:

    "…The concept of a shared, decentralized blockchain may someday present immense value, but it may or may not be in the form of Bitcoin.  What isn't known yet is whether the public will give Bitcoin, the "brand", a second chance if/when the developers present them with a better offering.  Internet consumer rage is at an all time high and few things are as personal, private and require as much trust as money.  …"

    Sounds like the perfect opportunity for a new Brand to come about ;)


  67. FXI

    It's a long way to drop to 47 and even better 43-44!  Someone's realizing China ain't CHINA!  Nice call on that one, but I think we have a lot more to go on that one!


  68. Languages/StJ – Interesting idea.  I'll meet you down in AC and we can talk if you want.  

    KO/Yodi – I agree, good to scale into.  

    Editing/Snow – I imagine that qualifies you to be one of StJ's Uber-translators.  

    FXI/Tri – Too tempted by potential for huge money if $48 fails. 

    FXI June $50 puts are topping out at $2.40.  We bought them for $1.40 so good profit but 44 days to go and the potential to make $3.60 vs $1 in the hand means it's still worth trying.  

    VXX/StJ – Been a while since the VIX has been up two straight days.  

    Cool BDC.  And a good philosophy.  

    AI/BDC – If it were here, would it tell you?  And yes, I'm very psyched to get GreenCoin going – the timing is perfect.  

    FXI/DC – Certainly evidence suggests we stick with it for now.  

    A bit bouncy into the close.  RUT turns green (barely), but the others are catching up to the downside – as we expected.


  69. Phil/FXI,

    FXI JUN 50/45 Bear Put spread for around $1.9. Is it good to start a new position?

    Thanks as always.

    Regards


  70. Sure, it's in the monet by a bit and, as long as FXI stays under $50, it's on track. 


  71. GMCR with a big miss – that was one annoying stock to short.   WFM down 10%, WYNN taking another hit. TSAL up a bit on so-so earnings. 


  72. haha GMCR, that was one of my largest losing positions (we had puts in the 25k port i believe and doubled down on them at some point). I had a feeling that was one of those ones where your premise was right Phil, but it seems timing it is near impossible with these momo's


  73. Siri is quite content and hopes I am too. :-)


  74. My small strangle positions in the momentum names are still going really well.  Most recently with TSLA staying essentially flat after reporting earnings.  Current holdings include:  AMZN, BIDU, TSLA, NFLX, and CMG.  Just 1-2 contracts each.  Credit to Yodi for the original idea.


  75. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1JrMCK2

    Is It Time to Lift the U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban?

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  76. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 11:55:40 AM


    May 1 — Tesla is building a new generation of batteries that could power homes, businesses and even the grid. Bloomberg’s Tom Randall takes a look at the emerging market for new energy storage.

    Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk introduced a new family of batteries designed to stretch the solar-power revolution into its next phase. There’s just one problem: Tesla’s new battery doesn’t work well with rooftop solar—at least not yet. Even Solar City, the supplier led by Musk, isn’t ready to offer Tesla’s battery for daily use.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Jr2zAh

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  77. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 4:24:44 PM

    Whole Foods Market Inc., facing slowing sales growth at its supermarkets, plans to introduce a new line of stores targeted at millennials next year and expand the brand rapidly.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IOZH27

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  78. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 4:55:45 PM

      Bill Gross, fund manager at Janus Capital Management, LLC. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Bill Gross should have listened to Bill Gross.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AFSDhc

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  79. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 2:05:48 PM

    Another observation about elevated prices in the U.S. stock market from the Federal Reserve provided only brief drama for investors Wednesday.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IOvgZO

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  80. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 10:41:16 AM


    May 6 — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde talk about the global financial system and its impact on society. They speak at the Institute for New Economic Thinking in Washington. Watch all of their key moments in two minutes. (Excerpts.)

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, surveying the financial landscape for signs of bubbles after more than six years of near-zero rates, warned that both stocks and bonds are richly valued.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zMAPpV

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  81. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 8:01:21 AM

     

    In a rare bit of good news for students facing hefty college bills, interest rates on federal student loans are expected to head lower soon.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IN0two

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  82. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 8:13:59 AM

      Photographer: Ben Baker/Redux

    Between Boyz II Men at The Mirage and Celine Dion at Caesars Palace, a hot new act is playing Vegas: Ben Bernanke.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dN441R

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  83. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 6:00:00 AM

     

    The European Union is gearing up to tear down digital barriers that block access to Internet-based services across the bloc with a series of measures and an e-commerce antitrust probe just weeks after it accused Google Inc. of abusing its market power.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zM1DGO

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  84. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 4:27:57 PM

      Students seeking to move up in life by getting a degree from a for-profit college are being trapped in a growing underclass of education debtors. Photographer: Chris Goodney

    Career Education Corp., a for-profit college chain, said it will close or sell all of its career colleges following financial losses and a federal regulatory crackdown.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EhFETz

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  85. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 2:57:02 PM

      Quarterback Tom Brady of the New England Patriots walks into position before a game in Foxboro, Massachusetts, on Dec. 29, 2013. Photographer: Jim Rogash/Getty Images

    Las Vegas




    sports books are taking down odds for the




    New England Patriots’ season-opening game on speculation that quarterback




    Tom Brady could be suspended for his role in the NFL team’s use of underinflated footballs.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zN7OdM

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  86. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 11:49:29 AM


    Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a candidate for president of the United States, comments on a bill to break up the biggest U.S. banks at a news conference in Washington.

    Senator Bernie Sanders proposed legislation to break up the nation’s biggest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., setting up a contrast with Hillary Clinton as both seek the Democratic presidential nomination.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AFj1aY

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  87. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 4:34:57 PM

    Tesla Motors Inc. climbed in extended trading after the electric-car maker reported a narrower first-quarter loss than analysts estimated and reiterated its full-year vehicle sales forecast.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AFQAtu

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  88. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 1:40:52 PM


    May 6 — Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis and his Italian counterpart, Pier Carlo Padoan, talk with reporters in Rome about their discussions about the crisis in Greece before a meeting of euro-area finance ministers next week.

    The European Central Bank will decide after next week’s meeting of euro region finance ministers whether to tighten Greek access to emergency liquidity, two people familiar with the matter said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IOpmrA

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  89. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 1:43:49 PM

      A customer uses an automated teller machine (ATM) operated by Alpha Bank AE in Thessaloniki, Greece, on Monday, April 6, 2015. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government, elected on promises to end austerity, said it will meet an obligation to pay the IMF 450 million euros ($494 million) this week. Photographer: Konstantinos Tsakalidis/Bloomberg

    Greek banks are increasingly being hampered from trading currencies, one of most liquid markets, as international dealers cut back credit lines and costs soar, according to people with knowledge of the trades.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EXERfo

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  90. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 1:43:49 PM

      A customer uses an automated teller machine (ATM) operated by Alpha Bank AE in Thessaloniki, Greece, on Monday, April 6, 2015. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government, elected on promises to end austerity, said it will meet an obligation to pay the IMF 450 million euros ($494 million) this week. Photographer: Konstantinos Tsakalidis/Bloomberg

    Greek banks are increasingly being hampered from trading currencies, one of most liquid markets, as international dealers cut back credit lines and costs soar, according to people with knowledge of the trades.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EXERfo

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  91. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 4:15:58 PM

      Protesters hold signs at a rally in support of minimum wage increase in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, April 15, 2015. Fast-food workers held rallies in 236 U.S. cities Wednesday in their biggest protest yet for higher pay and union rights. Photographer: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg

    How often have you felt that no matter how hard and long you work you just couldn’t make ends meet?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AFOD0q

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  92. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 4:46:36 PM

    Oil producers battered by the steepest market collapse in a generation are signaling for the first time that they believe the worst is behind them.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EXWknX

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  93. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 9:58:30 AM

      A trader sits and monitors his computer screens as he trades on the financial markets from the offices of Futex Co., in Woking, U.K., on Friday, April 24, 2015. Futex, founded in the 1990s is one of dozens of firms across the U.K. offering traders a place to ply their trade, which included Navinder Singh Sarao, who the U.S. authorities claim helped cause what came to be known as the 2010 flash crash. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    It has been a busy period in markets across the globe, with trends (and trades) breaking down everywhere.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AF0Nqh

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  94. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 5:41:45 PM

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved a two-year program designed to test ways to boost investors’ interest in smaller stocks.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AFZ83O

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  95. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 1:30:00 PM

    Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said that while first-quarter weakness is probably transitory, he is concerned tepid U.S. consumer spending could hinder a resumption of more robust growth this quarter.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AFufMM

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  96. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 1:15:04 PM

      Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a discussion with Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), not pictured, at an Institute for New Economic Thinking conference at the IMF headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, May 6, 2015. Yellen said at the conference that policy makers still must be on guard against emerging risks to the financial system even after banks became more robust and less reliant on short-term borrowing to fund investments. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Janet Yellen

    Based on UBS Group AG’s analysis of the junk-bond market, Janet Yellen’s warning of danger in U.S. stocks has some merit.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IOiBpJ

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  97. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 12:24:48 PM

    The European Central Bank increased the cap on emergency cash available to Greek lenders as the nation continues to struggle with a financial crisis, people familiar with the decision said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1dNvPat

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  98. From Bloomberg, Apr 22, 2015, 11:06:36 PM

     

    Garrett Camp made a fortune helping people navigate the digital world, then a far larger fortune helping them ­navigate the physical one. The Canadian-born Camp co-founded StumbleUpon, the early online links hub, in 2002, sold it to eBay for $75?million in 2007, and bought it back for 40?percent less in 2009. That same year, it occurred to him that many taxi drivers tooling around in search of their next fares had smartphones in their pockets and could be easily summoned by an app that made use of GPS data. The idea became Uber, and co-founder Camp is now worth an estimated $5.3?billion. As Uber’s ­chairman, he doesn’t have an operational role at the company, so he had enough time last year to found the tech industry incubator Expa, spread lavishly across a top floor of a ­downtown San?Francisco office tower.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1G9aUoU

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  99. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 4:34:57 PM

      NASHUA, NH – APRIL 17: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the First in the Nation Republican Leadership Summit April 17, 2015 in Nashua, New Hampshire. The Summit brought together local and national Republicans and was attended by all the Republicans candidates as well as those eyeing a run for the nomination. (Photo by Darren McCollester/Getty Images)

    After a brief lull, the GOP war on the War on Poverty is back on.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zNgErO

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  100. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 6:53:21 PM

    Asian index futures dropped with Japanese markets resuming after a three-day holiday, while the dollar held losses amid concern over the U.S. recovery. Oil was above $60 a barrel following the first drop in stockpiles this year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AG7yba

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  101. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 5:18:11 PM

    Four former Wilmington Trust Corp. executives were accused by federal officials of hiding $351 million worth of past-due loans from regulators before the Delaware-based bank was bought by M&T Bank Corp. in 2010.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1AFVt5R

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  102. I was just looking at the S&P chart and the chart above doesn't show what seems to be going on:

    Ever since the beginning of the year, we have been gyrating around 2060 or so. Not being able to break over at first and then finding support there. And by coincidence, support and resistance from there has been at around 2.5% from that line. Interestingly enough, 5% down from that line is 1957 and 10% down is 1854 which is where we stopped back in October! And that was also good support in early 2014. 


  103. StJ – Tech wow.  Human brain has 100 billion synapses and they are saying they can fit 10,000 x 25 million on a cm … I'm slightly terrified and excited by that at the same time #HAL9000


  104. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1EbpgEU

    Building a Coalition: The Final Polls… in Lego Bricks

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  105. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 12:01:15 AM

     

    When Harris Poll asked Americans if they’d trust a car to drive itself, most said: Too dangerous. When told they can buy a car now that takes control of the brakes and steering wheel to avoid a collision, most said: Bring it on.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EZ1NuI

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  106. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 10:43:48 PM

      Coal is unloaded from a bulk carrier ship at the Kolkata Dock System in Kolkata, West Bengal, India. Photographer: Sanjit Das/Bloomberg

    The collapse in global rates for shipping commodities from the world’s mines to mills and utilities will persist until at least 2020 on a glut of vessels and stalling cargo growth, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1PpSTI5

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  107. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 1:00:14 AM

      The Siemens AG company logo sits on display at a factory in Germany. Photographer: Michele Tantussi/Bloomberg

    Siemens AG, Europe’s largest engineering company, will cut another 4,500 jobs after second-quarter profit fell more than analysts estimated, burdened by the declining oil price.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EbfG4V

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  108. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 2:08:02 AM

     

    European stocks fell for a third day amid a global rout, with U.K. shares declining as voting began in the country’s general election.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IQi1bc

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  109. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 2:00:00 AM

      An employee works on the Bosch iBooster autonomous automobile braking assistance production line at the Robert Bosch GmbH plant in Blaichach, Germany. German business confidence is at a 10-month high and the Bundesbank predicts “quite robust” economic growth for this year. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

    German factory orders recovered in March after two months of decline, signaling that Europe’s largest economy is poised to grow at a steady pace.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IQgZfl

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  110. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 9:05:56 PM

    Morgan Stanley downgraded Chinese stocks for the first time in more than seven years, saying the market has become expensive after share prices surged and profitability fell to the weakest level since the global recession in 2009.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1PpKrbQ

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  111. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 1:37:46 AM

    Munich Re, the world’s biggest reinsurer, said profit fell 16 percent in the first quarter, after losses from natural catastrophes increased and returns from investments declined.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EjcF1L

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  112. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 1:30:00 AM

    Alcatel-Lucent SA reported rising revenue and earnings amid higher software sales, three weeks after agreeing to be bought by rival Nokia Oyj in a $17.5 billion deal. Both stocks rose.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EbkDL8

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  113. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 12:00:00 AM

     

    Without light there is no life. Yet the two biggest companies that allow us to inhabit the hours from dusk to dawn can’t wait to try other businesses. Shareholders of market leader Royal Philips NV vote on Thursday on whether to spin off the lighting operations. Why? It all comes down to light-emitting diodes.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FQGjAZ

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  114. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 7:01:00 PM

      Opinion polls and computer modeling suggest neither Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives nor Ed Miliband’s Labour Party is likely to win even 300 seats in the new House of Commons. Photographer: Arcaid/UIG via Getty Images

    What constitutes a majority in Britain’s 650-seat House of Commons? Easy: 326. Or is it? With the possibility that the next prime minister might be decided by a tight vote of confidence, small differences could matter a lot.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1FQh7ua

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  115. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 11:15:50 PM

    A 1948 painting by Pablo Picasso purchased by Huayi Brothers Media Corp. Chairman Wang Zhongjun for $29.9 million on May 5 at Sotheby's New York from the collection of Samuel Goldwyn Sr. Source: Sotheby's via Bloomberg

    Chinese movie mogul Wang Zhongjun was the buyer of a Pablo Picasso painting that sold for $29.9 million at Sotheby’s in New York, the auction house said in a press release.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EYTtLs

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  116. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 4:02:27 AM

    Norway’s central bank kept its benchmark interest unchanged for a second meeting and signaled it’s ready to ease again as it assesses the economy’s ability to withstand the slump in oil prices.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zEavxM

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  117. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 1:12:57 AM

     

    ArcelorMittal cut its annual profit target as decade-low iron ore prices overwhelm a recovery in steel.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EbhTNP

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  118. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 11:42:07 PM

    Indonesia’s vice president said the country will gradually cut interest rates, putting pressure on the central bank to ease policy after a report this week showed the economic slowdown was deepening.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IiiR1c

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  119. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 11:02:02 PM

    Australian shares are heading for their worst two-day drop this year, and there are four main culprits: the nation’s lenders.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IPXCD8

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  120. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 10:20:06 PM

      An employee loads bags of oats on to a conveyor at the Nestle Dongguan Ltd. factory in Dongguan, Guangdong province, China. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    Chinese exporters in the Pearl River Delta manufacturing hub are facing persistent labor shortages and rising wages even as the economy continues to slow.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ReGx9r

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  121. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 10:16:20 PM

      Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, listens to a question during a discussion with Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), not pictured, at an Institute for New Economic Thinking conference at the IMF headquarters in Washington, D.C. on May 6. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Japanese bonds fell the most in almost two years and Australian government securities slid for an eighth day in the latest leg of a global debt-market rout.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1IPRVVI

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  122. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 9:35:38 PM

      Commuters walk past 341 George Street in the central business district in Sydney. The number of people employed fell by 2,900 from a month earlier, compared with economists’ forecasts for a 4,000 gain, government data showed Thursday. Photographer: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg

    Australian employers unexpectedly cut jobs in April as a mining investment boom unwinds and a resilient currency weakens the competitiveness of local industries.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1F6MC4x

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  123. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 9:29:41 PM

    China’s stocks capped their biggest three-day retreat since June 2013 on concern valuations are too high given an increasing supply of shares and prospects for a regulatory clampdown on margin trading.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1H2j2gN

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  124. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 9:19:45 PM

    The State Bank of Vietnam devalued the dong for the second time this year in a bid to maintain export competitiveness and accelerate economic growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1F6L22t

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  125. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 6:00:02 PM


    Uber runs out of road.

    The ride-sharing app Uber has encountered more than its share of regulatory crackdowns during its international expansion. South Korean authorities have declared their intention to arrest the company’s CEO; French police recently raided its Paris offices; and local officials in Delhi are asking the Indian government to block the app outright. But when police in the Chinese city of Guangzhou raided the local offices of the company last Thursday, it added a new wrinkle to a familiar pattern.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1IPhiHh

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  126. From Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, 8:47:43 AM

     

    New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio will release his own “contract with America” on May 12, an effort to draw attention to his nationwide effort to resolve income inequality.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1INb36L

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  127. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 3:57:28 AM

    The pound declined for the first time in three days against the dollar as Britain’s voters went to the polls in the nation’s tightest election in a generation.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zE9uWH

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  128. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 3:50:56 AM

    U.K. stocks fell for the second time in three days, as voting began in the country’s general election.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EjseGI

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  129. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 3:42:51 AM

    Russian services ranging from hotels to hairdressers expanded for the first time since September, as an increase in new orders and rising client demand helped businesses.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1c99nYn

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  130. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 3:06:36 AM

    Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-largest mining company, said there were potential regulatory obstacles to its iron ore joint venture with BHP Billiton Ltd. after the Age newspaper reported the deal was dead. Photographer: Ian Waldie/Bloomberg

    More than 160 million metric tons of iron ore will exit the market this year as the price slump forces high-cost miners to idle capacity, according to the chief executive officer of the world’s second-biggest producer.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1c9062s

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  131. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 2:41:22 AM

    Security forces in Benin surrounded the headquarters of a closely held television station in the commercial capital, Cotonou, on Wednesday as opposition officials tried to participate in a program, a media union said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1Ejkzbi

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  132. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 2:25:25 AM

    Spain and France are scheduled to sell as much as 13.5 billion euros ($15.3 billion) of bonds on Thursday into a market where prices are slumping and volatility on German bund futures surged to the highest in almost three years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1EbqQXE

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  133. From Bloomberg, May 7, 2015, 1:15:24 AM

    Emerging-market stocks headed for the steepest slide since March amid a global rout as Chinese shares sank after Morgan Stanley ended its seven-year bullish call on the nation’s equities. India’s rupee led currencies lower.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ReXDnG

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  134. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1c94sGW

    Have You Noticed the Bounce in Commodities?

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  135. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1EjoCo3

    Average U.S. Stock Is Incredibly Expensive: Toogood

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  136. Good morning!  

    Futures down another half a point and we'll see what sticks.  Really not much to report otherwise – it's nice when the market does exactly what we thought it was going to do, isn't it?  

    Oil just failed $61 as the Dollar poked up over 94, so /CL is still a good short (but a rough ride) and we'll look for a bottom on /RB (now $2.02) to play for the weekend bounce but not with a rising Dollar.  $2 will, of course, be very tempting if we hit it.  

    Watch 1,210 on /TF – it's holding for now but, if it fails, then things could get ugly, especially if 1,200 breaks too.  And, of course, 11,000 on NYSE MUST HOLD!!!

    Quick news:

    Why record-high margin debt should make you more cautious about stocks

    Asian Stocks, Bonds Extend $2 Trillion Global Selloff; Oil Drops. Asian stocks and bonds retreated, extending a global rout, as Japan returned from a three-day holiday. Oil slipped after reaching its highest this year.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1 percent by 11.06 a.m. in Tokyo, with all major gauges in the region retreating. ?

    Morgan Stanley(MS) Ends Seven-Year Bullish Call on Chinese EquitiesMorgan Stanley downgraded Chinese stocks for the first time in more than seven years, saying the market has become expensive after share prices surged and profitability fell to the weakest level since the global recession in 2009. The U.S. brokerage lowered its rating to equal-weight from overweight on the MSCI China Index, Jonathan Garner, its Hong Kong-based head of strategy for Asia and emerging markets, wrote in a report dated May 7.

    GM(GM) says China April vehicle sales down 0.4 pct. General Motors and its Chinese joint ventures sold 258,484 vehicles in China in April, down 0.4 percent from a year earlier, the U.S. automaker said on Thursday. GM for the first time reported retail sales to customers rather than wholesale vehicle sales to dealers. Retail figures are generally viewed as a more accurate gauge of consumer demand. Under the previous methodology, the automaker had reported an 8 percent year-on-year rise in March and a 1.3 percent increase in February.

     

    Global Bond Rout Spreads to Japan as Three-Day Break EndsJapan’s government bonds joined a worldwide rout in sovereign debt as investors in Tokyo returned from a three-day national holiday.Benchmark 10-year yields were set for their biggest increase since Feb. 3 after losses in U.S. Treasuries mounted following comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday that long-term government debt is overpriced. Yields on 10-year German bunds rose to their highest level this year as investors bet whether European yields were too low given rising oil prices and a deadlock in Greece’s debt talks. ?

     

    ECB Decision on Greek Haircuts Said to Depend on Political TalksThe European Central Bank will decide after next week’s meeting of euro region finance ministers whether to tighten Greek access to emergency liquidity, two people familiar with the matter said. The ECB is prepared to raise the discount demanded on Greek collateral to a level last seen in 2014 unless the country’s government shows a willingness to compromise in bailout talks, said one of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. An ECB spokesman declined to comment.   

    Euro-Area Bonds Caught in QE Paradox as Short Sellers Book GainsThe European Central Bank’s bond-buying program has landed investors in a quandary that’s whipping up volatility in the region’s fixed-income markets. Signs the plan is helping turn around the euro area’s economy triggered a 1.4 percent loss on the region’s government bonds in April, the first in 16 months. That selloff has spiraled into a rout in the first days of May, with seven straight days of declines for German 10-year bonds.