Archive for 2015

Governments Worldwide Will Crash the First Week of October … According to 2 Financial Forecasters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

Two well-known financial forecasters claim that virtually all governments worldwide will be hit with a gigantic economic crisis in the first week of October 2015.

Armstrong Painting
Martin Armstrong (Click for Larger Image)

Martin Armstrong is a controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events … more or less to the day.   Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best.

(On the other hand, he was jailed for 11 years on allegations of contempt, fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. Armstrong’s supporters say the government jailed him on trumped-up charges as a way to try to pressure him into handing over his forecasting program).

Armstrong has predicted for years that governments worldwide would melt down in a crisis of insolvency and lack of trust starting this October. Specifically, Armstrong predicts that a major cycle will turn on October 1, 2015, shifting investors’ trust from the public sector and governments to the private sector.

Unlike other bears who predict that the stock market is about to collapse, Armstrong predicts that huge sums of capital will flow from bonds and the Euro into American stocks.  So he predicts a huge bull market in U.S. stocks.

Edelson Paint Painting
 Larry Edelson (Click for Larger Image)

Edelson is another long-time student of cycle theory.  (Edelson – a big fan Armstrong – has also studied decades of data from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.)

Edelson is predicting the biggest financial crisis in world history – including a collapse of government solvency – will start on October 7, 2015 – the same week as Armstrong’s prediction – when the European Union breaks up.

Are Armstrong and Edelson right or wrong?

We don’t have long to wait to test their very public predictions …





Chinese Stocks Nosedive After Stabilization Fund Exit Comments

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just when officials proclaimed Chinese stocks “the safest in the world,” and added that “the stock market rout has been ended by timely measures,” CSRC announces that they are studying an exit plan for the stock stabilization plan… and carnage ensues…

Even ChiNext has give up its gains…

We await the “just kiding” denial very soon.

Chart: Bloomberg





Concentrated Wealth + Widespread Stupidity = End Of Democracy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Eric Zuesse,

Today’s America is not a democracy:

That terrific investigative news report by Paul Blumenthal at Huffington Post, on 9 November 2013, penetrated beyond what the U.S. oligarchy — or more traditionally called aristocracy — requires its dark-money groups to disclose to the Federal Election Commission; and so Blumenthal researched also into what dark-money groups are required to report to the IRS (America’s tax-authorities). 

This way, Blumenthal was able to discover, for example, that a "dark-money shell game allowed the Wisconsin Club for Growth to influence the elections with both its own ads and those of seemingly unrelated conservative groups with different public agendas. … The trail of cash moving from dark money nonprofit to dark money nonprofit can be traced, in part, through public records of the groups contributing it,” but only by accessing both FEC and IRS public records. And, even then, the picture was incomplete, because the 5-Republican bare majority, on the infamous pro-aristocracy 2010 U.S. Supreme Court Citizens United decision, by five traitors to the U.S. Constitution (which all judges are sworn to protect), prohibits public access to a complete picture of how (like in that Wisconsin election) a few psychopathic billionaires, plus millions of faith-driven fools they sucker with myth-affirming lies, can destroy government of the people, by the people, for the people, and turn it instead into government of the people, by the aristocracy, for the aristocracy. Blumenthal also showed the same billionaires+suckers system replacing democracy in other states. (Today’s Greece is a more extreme case of the same thing. Perhaps what’s today in Greece will betomorrow in America.)

On 27 August 2012, the Republican commentator, Mike Lofgren, headlined in The American Conservative, “The Revolt of the Rich,” and he dumped upon his fellow conservatives for being now traitors to democracy in America. Anyone who thinks that America is still a democracy, and that the U.S. hasn’t descended into being ruled by the money of billionaire psychopaths in both Parties, needs to see that testimony by this passionate (lower-case “d”) democrat, who "served 16 years on the Republican staff of the House and Senate Budget Committees.” That same month, his stellar book was published: The Party Is Over: How Republicans Went Crazy,


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Gold, Precious Metals Flash Crash Following $2.7 Billion Notional Dump

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The last time gold plummeted by just over $30 per ounce (dragging down silver and bitcoin with it) and resulted in a crash so furious it led to a “Velocity Logic” market halt for 10 seconds, was on January 6, 2014. Many said this was just perfectly normal selling, although we explicitly said (and showed) that it was a clear case of an HFT algo gone wild (following an order to do just that and slam all sell stops) when someone manipulated the market and repriced gold substantially lower.

Precisely one month ago, some 18 months after the incident, the Comex admitted as much, when it blamed the collapse on “unusually large and atypical trading activity by several of the Firm’s customers and caused the mass entry of order messages by Zenfire, which resulted in a disruptive and rapid price movement in the February 2014 Gold Futures market and prompted a Velocity Logic event.” Curiously despite the “errant” order, gold did not rebound because the entire purpose of the selling slam was to reset the prevailing price far lower. This is what the Comex said in Disciplinary action 14-9807-BC:

Pursuant to an offer of settlement Mirus Futures LLC (“Mirus” or the “Firm”) presented at a hearing on June 16, 2015, in which Mirus neither admitted nor denied the rule violations upon which the penalty is based, a Panel of the COMEX Business Conduct Committee (“BCC”) found that it had jurisdiction over Mirus pursuant to Exchange Rule 418 and that on January 6, 2014, Mirus failed to adequately monitor the operation of its trading platform (Zenfire), and connectivity of its trading system (Zenfire) with Globex. This failure resulted in unusually large and atypical trading activity by several of the Firm’s customers and caused the mass entry of order messages by Zenfire, which resulted in a disruptive and rapid price movement in the February 2014 Gold Futures market and prompted a Velocity Logic event.

The Panel found that as a result, Mirus violated Rules 432.Q. (Conduct Detrimental to the Exchange) and 432.W.

We bring this up because moments ago, just before 9:30pm Eastern time or right as China opened for trading, gold (as well as platinum, silver, and virtually all precious metals) flashed crashed when “someone” sold $2.7 billion notional in…
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Is Australia The Next Greece?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Australian consumers are more worried about the medium term outlook than at the peak of the financial crisis, and rightfully so.

Source: @ANZ_WarrenHogan

As The Telegraph reports, by the end of the first quarter this year, Australia’s net foreign debt had climbed to a record $955bn, equal to an already unsustainable 60pc of gross domestic product, and is set to rise as RBA's bet that depreciation in the value of the country’s currency would help to offset the decline in its overbearing mining industry hasn’t happened to the extent they would have wished.

Furthermore, as UBS explains, China's real GDP growth cycles have become an increasingly important driver of Australia's nominal GDP growth this last decade. With iron ore and coal prices plumbing new record lows, a Chinese (real) economy firing on perhaps 1 cyclinder, and equity investors reeling from China's collapse; perhaps the situation facing Australia is more like Greece than many want to admit, as Gina Rinehart, Australia’s richest woman and matriarch of Perth’s Hancock mining dynasty stunned her workers this week: accept a 10% pay cut or face redundancies.

The government in Canberra and the Reserve Bank of Australia, The Telegraph explains,  had bet that depreciation in the value of the country’s currency would help to offset the decline in its overbearing mining industry. However, that hasn’t happened to the extent they would have wished.

Last month Gina Rinehart, Australia’s richest woman and matriarch of Perth’s Hancock mining dynasty delivered an unwelcome shock to her workers in Western Australia: accept a possible 10pc pay cut or face the risk of future redundancies.

Ms Rinehart, whose family have accumulated vast wealth from iron ore mining, has seen her fortune dwindle since commodity prices began their inexorable slide last year. The Australian mining mogul has seen her estimated wealth collapse to around $11bn (£7bn) from a fortune that was thought to be worth around $30bn just three years ago.

This colossal collapse in wealth is symptomatic of the wider economic problem now facing Australia, which for years has been known as the lucky country due to its preponderance in natural resources such as iron ore, coal and gold. During the boom years of the so-called commodities “super cycle” when China couldn’t buy enough of everything that Australia dug out of


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Chinese Stocks Drop’n'Pop After Officials Confirm “Stock Market Rout Stopped By Timely Measures”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With shenanigans in precious metals, investors are rushing back into the safety of Chinese high beta idiotmakers stocks…

Shanghai Composite Tops 4000 Once again

One wonders if gold manipulation played a hand…

After two days of deleveraging and a squeeze into the expiration of CSI-300 Futures pushing Chinese stocks higher, the grandmas and farmers have decided now is an opportune moment to once again start adding margin debt. Who is to blame? Simple – Chinese officials have confirmed that “the stock market rout is over thanks to their timely measures.” Futures opened modestly higher but are fading as the cash open looms…

Rest assured world…

  • *CHINA’S ZHU SAYS STK MKT ROUT CEASED BY TIMELY MEASURES: DAILY

And so, after 2 days of rationality, PBOC reports,

  • *SHANGHAI MARGIN DEBT RISES FOR FIRST TIME IN THREE DAYS

As the Chinese just can’t help themselves…

CSI-300 hovering flat (China’s S&P 500)

CHINA FTSE A50 (China’s Dow) lower….

Finally, here is a brief explanation from Stratfor on the political consequences of China’s stock market collapse:





Huge Queues Form as Greek Banks Open; More Money at One Time, Same in a Week

Courtesy of Mish.

Greeks want their money. Who can blame them? But why did they foolishly have money in the bank in the first place?

Regardless, the banks are open. And huge lines are forming.

In a knick-knack paddywack maneuver to boost morale, the Troika graciously allows depositors to withdraw €420 euros at a time, up from the previous €60.

Alas, the weekly withdrawal rate remains the same €420 euros.

Greek banks will open for the first time in three weeks on Monday in an attempt to boost savers’ confidence in the country’s crippled lenders.

The reopening of the banks, which were collectively down to their last €1bn in available cash last week, represents a morale-boosting step for the crisis-racked country. However, potential bail-ins of depositors and loan defaults still loom for a sector hit by capital controls and an extended bank holiday as it scrambled to avert bankruptcy.

Last week the European Central Bank agreed to inject €900m worth of fresh liquidity into Greek banks, taking its emergency liquidity assistance to the country to €89.9bn. But one leading Greek banking executive said that banks had planned to open on Monday regardless of the injection, even if that meant having no cash behind the desks.

“A great deal of it is for morale,” said the executive.

Morale Boost with No Money?

Supposedly, there was going to be a morale boost if banks opened with no money. Anyone really believe that?

I don’t.

Huge queues are not morale boosting either.



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Lies, Damned Lies, & Inflation Statistics

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

The government released their monthly CPI report this week. Even though it came in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, they and their mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media dutifully downplayed the uptrend. They can’t let the plebs know the truth. That might upend their economic recovery storyline and put a crimp into their artificial free money, zero interest rate, stock market rally. If they were to admit inflation is rising, the Fed would be forced to raise rates. That is unacceptable in our rigged .01% economy. There are banker bonuses, CEO stock options, corporate stock buyback earnings per share goals and captured politician elections at stake.

The corporate MSM immediately shifted the focus to the annual CPI figure of 0.1%. That’s right. Your government keepers expect you to believe the prices you pay to live your everyday life have been essentially flat in the last year. Anyone who lives in the real world, not the BLS Bizarro world of models, seasonal adjustments, hedonic adjustments, and substitution adjustments, knows this is a lie. The original concept of CPI was to measure the true cost of maintaining a constant standard of living. It should reflect your true inflation of out of pocket costs to live a daily existence in this country.

Instead, it has become a manipulated statistic using academic theories as a cover to systematically under-report the true level of inflation. The purpose has been to cut annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security and other government benefits, while over-estimating the true level of GDP. Artificially low inflation figures allow the mega-corporations who control the country to keep wage increases to workers low. Under-reporting the true level of inflation also allows the Federal Reserve to keep their discount rate far lower than it would be in an honest free market. The Wall Street banks, who own and control the Federal Reserve, are free to charge 18% on credit card balances while paying .25% to savers. The manipulation of the CPI benefits the vested interests, impoverishes the masses, and slowly but surely contributes to the destruction of our economic system.

A deep dive into Table 2 from the BLS reveals some truth and uncovers more lies. Their weighting of everyday living expenditures is warped and
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What happens to value in sideways markets: Shiller PE and expected returns using Hussman’s method

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

What happens to value in sideways markets: Shiller PE and expected returns using Hussman’s method by Tobias Carlisle, author Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations,via Greenbackd

Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio takes a 10-year inflation-adjusted average of the S&P500’s earnings to arrive at a price/earnings metric smoothed for the business cycle.

It’s useful because earnings tend to be volatile and mean reverting. For example, the single-year PE metric peaked in 2009 at 125, indicating that the market was expensive, when in reality it was one of the best times to buying stocks in the last 20 years.

Deep Value Presentation for MoneyShow.004

The reason the PE looked so high was because the “E”–earnings–had fallen so far.

Deep Value Presentation for MoneyShow.005

Shiller’s solution is to smooth the earnings by taking the 10-year, inflation adjusted average.

Deep Value Presentation for MoneyShow.006

The Shiller CAPE allows us to compare the smoothed earnings to the level of the market and arrive at a cyclically adjusted PE.

Deep Value Presentation for MoneyShow.007

The CAPE is currently about 60 percent over its long-run average. Half of the premium comes from earnings 30 percent above trend, and half comes from a single-year multiple 30 percent above its average.

The bulls argue that this premium is justified (or non-existent) because interest rates are low, earnings will stay elevated because US companies earn a greater share of income internationally, and the market has peaked at higher Shiller PEs in the past: 1929 peaked 33x, 2000 peaked at 44x, Japan got to 100x in the 1990s, and China has traded at 100x this year. They also point to the fact that the Shiller PE has indicated the market has been consistently overvalued since the 1990s, only briefly touching the long-run average in the depths of 2009.

John Hussman has a method for calculating 10-year expected returns from Shiller PEs that assumes mean reversion in the PE over the 10 years. The slide below runs the data back to 1871 and compares Hussman’s expected 10-year returns against the returns that actually occur.

Deep Value Presentation for MoneyShow.023

If we zoom in on the area under the blue circle, we can see that Hussman’s method has been predicting negative returns since the mid-1990s, with a deep trough in 1999, and a smaller trough in 2007.

Deep Value Presentation for MoneyShow.024

The first trough preceded the 2000 tech bust, and manifest in negative returns for that 10-year period.


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Janet Yellen Was Half Right

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just over a year ago, Janet Yellen did the unthinkable. In a moment of clarity, The Fed called out two darlings of the momentum-chasing euphoria-driven stock buying frenzy for 'special' treatment when Yellen uttered the Cramer-mind-blowing fact that "small cap social media and biotech stock valuations were substantially stretched." It appears, judging by today's market, that she was half right

The equal-weighted basket of nine social media stocks (Angie's List, Demand Media, Groupon, Jive Software, King Digital, Pandora Media, United Online, Yelp, and Zynga) is down 23% since Yellen's truthiness (underperforming the broad small cap universe by almost 32%). However, Small cap Biotechs have soared rather than stalled – now up almost 89% since The Fed chair's drubbing.

Of course – she is actually right about both but timing is everything (just ask Greenspan) as small cap biotech valuations move on to be "substantially stretched"-er.

Charts: Bloomberg





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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