Archive for 2015

Volkswagen Denies New EPA Allegations Regarding Porsche & Audi Motors That Cheat Emissions Tests

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Volkswagen Denies New EPA Allegations Regarding Porsche & Audi Motors That Cheat Emissions Tests

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  • Scandal continues to hurt Volkswagen AG (ADR) (OTC: VLKAY) as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced on Monday that it is looking at more vehicles that could have cheated air pollution tests.
  • Porsche and Audi cars are involved in this round.
  • The EPA declared that the company cheated air pollution tests for diesel luxury cars in 2014 through 2016 models.

According to new declarations by the EPA, the Volkswagen emissions scandal might not be limited to smaller diesel engines in Volkswagen cars only. The agency said to be looking into 3.0-liter V6 diesel engines used mainly in large, luxury models like the Porsche Cayenne, plus five Audi models and the VW Touareg.

Apparently, roughly 10,000 vehicles could be equipped with illegal software, the regulators stated.

Related Link: Volkswagen Excess Emissions Will Cause 59 Early Deaths, Study Says

According to Reuters, "On the road, emissions of the smog-causing pollutant nitrogen oxide on the affected high-end vehicles could be nine times higher than allowed, the EPA said."

In response to the allegations, Volkswagen said it had not installed in its 3.0-liter V6 diesel cars any software to alter emissions readings, and assured it would fully cooperate with the Agency to clarify the issue.

Shares of Volkswagen fell 2.88 percent on Monday.

Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.

Posted-In: Audi EPA porscheNews Legal Movers Best of Benzinga

Turkey Is Having A Huge Day Because Of The Country's 'Surprising' Election Results

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Turkey Is Having A Huge Day Because Of The Country's 'Surprising' Election Results
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  • Turker Hamzaoglu, a U.K.-based analyst for Bank of America, said that Turkey's election results will likely put an end to the country's political uncertainty.
  • The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) party regained a majority government in Turkey's elections.
  • Hamzaoglu boosted his rating on Turkish external debt to Market Weight from Underweight and reaffirmed his USD/TRY target of 2.80.

Turkey's ruling party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), won a national election over the weekend.

The AKP party received 49.4 percent of the vote and regained the majority which it lost back in June. The party, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, now holds 316 seats in the Turkish parliament.

The country's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP) received 25.4 percent of the vote while the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), crossed the 10 percent threshold needed to claim seats.

The ETF that tracks the market performance of Turkish equities, Ishares Msci Turkey Inv Market Index Fd (NYSE: TUR) soared higher by nearly 10 percent Monday morning.

Turker Hamzaoglu, a U.K.-based analyst for Bank of America that covers Turkey, commented in a note that the "rather surprising" AKP win was a "surprise" but re-confirms his prior view that political risks in the country have likely peaked.

Hamzaoglu continued that the Turkish investment case has "been resolved in what we believe is a market friendly way" and a four-year term with an outright majority for the AKP party "can be seen as a positive from a policy continuity perspective." As such, the analyst upgraded his rating on Turkish external debt to Market Weight from Underweight while also reaffirming a USD/TRY target of 2.80.

Hamzaoglu noted that the election results benefits Turkish rates and equities, especially banks. However, he cautioned that "significant challenges remain" including the Kurdish problem, the need for a new constitution, eroding quality of institutions, and the need for a resumed reform zeal…
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Abbvie Just Had A Huge Week, But It's Not Over

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Earnings Scheduled For October 30, 2015
JMP Analyst Thinks Enanta Will Outperform Market, Calls Selloff An Overreaction
AbbVie Beats Q3 Views, Offers Bullish 2020 Guidance (Investor’s Business Daily)

  • AbbVie Inc (NYSE: ABBV) shares are up 8 percent in one month, despite touching a low of $46.92 on October 22.
  • Morgan Stanley’s David Risinger upgraded the rating on the company from Equal-Weigh to Overweight, while raising the price target from $62 to $73.
  • With an increase in EPS growth estimates, AbbVie is now the cheapest large-cap pharma with superior long-term prospects, Risinger commented.

AbbVie’s shares gained 10 percent on October 30, after a webcast of management’s long-term plan. Analyst David Risinger said, however, that the stock has “considerably more room to go.”

“Mgmt's robust defense of the broad Humira patent estate, including putting a stake in the ground for the strength of 2020 patents, combined with our own patent consultant's views, give us conviction to raise our projections,” Risinger wrote.

The revenue estimate for 2020 has been raised from $30B to $35B, which has driven the EPS estimate for the year from $6.98 to $8.83. This takes the 4-year EPS CAGR for 2016-2020 from 8 percent to 15 percent.

Risinger expects greater Humira durability to offer compounded benefits:

  1. More time for Abbvie to progress its own pipeline
  2. Increased financial flexibility

“The 5-year free cash flow estimate has been raised from $46B to $55B. “We believe Abbvie should be able to leverage its strong cash flows to pursue acquisitions to help offset eventual biosimilar Humira erosion,” the analyst mentioned.

He added that if the company buys pipeline assets at 4-5x peak sales, it could generate $7-$9B in future sales, offsetting Humira franchise declines from the 2019 peak sales estimate of $18B.

Latest Ratings for ABBV

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2015 Morgan Stanley Upgrades Equal-weight Overweight
Sep 2015 Citigroup Upgrades Neutral
Jul 2015 Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for ABBV
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: David RisingerAnalyst Color Long Ideas Upgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings Movers Trading Ideas

5 Best Stock Ideas Of October

Courtesy of Benzinga.

5 Best Stock Ideas Of October
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After a rough couple of months in August and September, the S&P 500 booked a stellar month of October. The index closed out the month with a strong 8.3 percent gain.

However, some stocks fared even better than the overall market during the October rally. Here’s a list of the five best-performing S&P 500 stocks in the past month.

5. E I Du Pont De Nemours And Co (NYSE: DD)

DuPont shares surged in October as speculation of a possible break-up of the company continue to swirl. On the company’s earnings call, acting CEO Edward Breen indicated that he has an “open mind” when it comes to corporate restructuring, and the company has reportedly recently met with activist investor and break-up advocate Nelson Peltz. DuPont finished October up 31.1 percent on the month.

4. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR)

First Solar shares received a huge boost at the end of the month when the company announced a massive Q3 earnings beat. Shares spiked nearly 12 percent on the last day of the month after the earnings report, and First Solar finished October up 33.7 percent.

Related Link: 5 Worst Stock Ideas Of October

3. Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN)

After finding itself among the five worst-performing S&P 500 stocks in September, the casino operator hit the jackpot in October with a big turnaround. The bounce-back was partially driven by positive rhetoric coming from the Chinese government, which indicated a willingness to be more supportive of Macau gaming in the future. Wynn finished the month of October up 35.2 percent.

2. KLA-Tencor Corp (NASDAQ: KLAC)

On October 13, KLA-Tnecor shares soared when the company announced a…
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Here Are The Five “Good News” That Can Cause A Market Selloff According To Bank of America

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

“If bad news is great for stocks, then is good news bad?”

Bank of America reminded us earlier that just this month, the PBoC cut rates, the ECB confirmed QE2, Sweden announced additional QE, and the BoJ promised additional easing if necessary ‘without hesitation’, and for markets, “the stimulus of October 2015 has worked, with equities and corporate bonds rallying hard.

The main driver of this newly unleashed central bank intervention? Terrible global economic data.

BofA further says that “central banks are easing because global growth is weak” (in the process making global growth even weaker but at least pushing risk assets to new highs) adding that “global profits are down 4% since February. Even the US has struggled: payroll growth has decelerated and the latest US GDP growth rate was a pitiful 1.5% in Q3. And the level of US inventories is unambiguously recessionary.”

But while “confidence in quantitative success for the economy is nonetheless low” the ‘loss of faith in central planning’ trade which emerged briefly in late August and September, promptly fizzled as “don’t fight the Fed” once again regained its top position on the pantheon of Wall Street aphorisms, right above BTFD.

So if terrible economic news is great for stocks, will the opposite be true as well, especially with a resurgent hawkish Fed and odds of a December rate hike soaring to the highest level yet?

Here are the five “good is bad” things which according to BofA, will change the narrative, and lead to a market selloff in November.

What changes this narrative? What signals Q3 was the trough for macro expectations? What causes a market sell-off in bonds in November? Strong October data & market validation of a higher rates/higher growth scenario in coming quarters:

  • China PMI>50.5
  • US ISM>52
  • US payroll>225K
  • US banks rally: XLF>$26 would confirm stronger “domestic demand” expectations.
  • US dollar stable: if the Fed can hike without boosting dollar this is positive; DXY must not breach 100; a rally in ADXY (Asia FX index) above 110 crucial as this would erase the apocalyptic view of China growth prospects.

There is another potential adverse catalyst: while often cited as a source of market strength, the end of Obama’s second term may be just the opposite.

The “Wall Street

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Partner Of “China’s Carl Icahn” Executed By Local Police After Attempting Escape Following Insider Trading Charges

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The name of Shanghai’s Xu Xiang is not a household name in US financial circles. It is in China.

According to a recent profile in Want China Times (as of May 2014) Xiang, who heads the Shanghai-based Zexi Investment (founded in 2009 and since then generating literally impossible returns) is not only one of the richest Chinese investors, but has been called anything from China’s “Warren Buffett” to China’s “Carl Icahn.” He also has a reputation of being an activist within China’s stock market. To wit from May 2014:

The major players in China’s capital market, including equity fund and insurance asset management firms, are gearing up to secure seats as members on the boards of directors in listed companies in a bid to influence these firms to give dividends, putting profit into their own pockets, according to Guangzhou’s Time Weekly. According to the newspaper Xu Xiang, head of Shanghai-based Zexi Investment, is one among these market players in China.

Xu, from Ningbo in eastern China’s Zhejiang province, built his wealth from scratch through investments in the secondary capital market. Xu set up Zexi Investment in 2010 and gained a good reputation as a profit maker in the Chinese equity fund market. The fund is reported to currently manage more than 10 billion yuan (US$1.6 billion).

A statistics report on the Shanghai stock exchange revealed that Zexi Investment has raised its stakes in several listed companies, including in conglomerate Ningbo United Group, since the beginning of this year. Xu’s investments have made Zexi more visible in the Chinese capital market.

The newspaper reported that Xu’s strategy is not unusual in the US market and is similar to that of Warren Buffett, a prominent US equity investor, although this style is not often seen in China. The report said it is believed that more and more Chinese investors will follow Xu’s example by getting selected as members of the board of directors in listed companies to influence the companies.

A manager in an equity fund firm, who declined to be named, told Time Weekly that Zexi had tried the same technique previously with Sino Life Insurance and Anbang Insurance Group. The fund manager suggested that insurance asset management companies invest in the secondary market.

Xu has been called the Chinese version of

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The Military-Industrial Complex’s Latest Best Friend – Barack Obama

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Chuck Spinney via The Blaster blog,

The Pentagon just won another small skirmish in its long war with Social Security and Medicare. That is the unstated message of the budget deal just announced gleefully by congressional leaders and the President.  To understand why, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane.

Last January, President Obama submitted Fiscal Year (FY) 2016 budget to Congress, and he proposed to break the spending limits on both defense and domestic programs.  These limits are set by the long-term sequester provisions of the Budget Control Act of 2011  (BCA), which, for better or worse, is the law of the land, and Obama was asking Congress to change the law.  Mr. Obama wanted to finance his ramped up spending proposals by increasing taxes.  Of course, he knew that the Republican controlled Congress lusted for defense increases but hated domestic spending, particularly entitlements. Moreover, he knew increasing taxes was like waving the red cape in front of the Republican budget bulls.  So, he knew his budget would be dead on arrival.  Obama’s budget, nevertheless, had one virtue: it was up front about the intractable nature of the budget problem.  In effect, whether deliberately or not, Obama laid a trap that the Republicans merrily walked into during the ensuing spring and summer.

Obama's gambit set into motion a tortured kabuki dance in the Republican controlled Congress.  The Republicans, as Obama well knew, wanted to keep up the appearances of adhering to the BCA.  But at the same time, they wanted desperately to shovel money into the Pentagon’s coffers.  The net result was that Obama’s proposal triggered a series of increasingly irrational Congressional negotiations, bizarre back-room deals and weird budget resolutions.  These machinations came to a head with the passage of a National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that proposed to (1) keep the Pentagon’s base budget at the BCA level of about $499 billion, but (2) pack the accounts in the Pentagon’s Overseas Contingencies Operations fund (OCO) with a programs and pork that should have been in its base budget.  The reason for the dodgy OCO 'slush fund' rested in the politically irresistible fact that the OCO is a separate war-fighting fund** for the Pentagon that is exempt from the spending limits set by the BCA’s sequester provisions.  The net result of the smoke…
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Things You’ll Never See

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with no comment…

Source: Ben Garrison

PBOC Fixes Chinese Yuan Higher By 0.54%, Most Since 2005

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

On Friday morning, after the biggest surge in the onshore Yuan in a decade, we explained it as follows: “capital controls are to some extent counterintuitive. That is, the stricter the capital controls, the more people want to move their money out of the country. Here’s how we put it last month: “What better way to spark a capital exodus than with very vocal, and very effective capital controls. Just look at Greece.”

Indeed, China will likely need to completely liberalize the capital account in the coming years in order to pacify the IMF which is poised to throw Beijing a bone and grant its RMB SDR bid. Inclusion could lead to some $500 billion in reserve demand.

That helps to explain why overnight, the yuan soared the most in a decade after China moved to loosen capital controls with a trial program in the Shanghai free trade zone that would allow domestic individuals to directly buy overseas assets. The move marks another step towards capital account convertibility, thus bolstering Beijing’s bid for yuan internationalization.

Ironically, this did absolutely nothing to ease the local population’s concerns that capital outflows are accelerating, and certainly did nothing at all to help the Chinese export economy, which as we saw from the overnight PMI numbers, deteriorated once more to new cycle lows.

Fast forward to today when Westpac strategist Sean Callow said that the Froday jump in yuan’ spot rate on Friday and weaker dollar since last week’s close could mean largest daily gain in yuan fixing in several years, adding that the obvious policy priority for stronger yuan essentially sidelines fixing models for time being.

Sure enough, as per the fixing limits established as part of the August 11 Yuan devaluation, moments ago the PBOC announced that it had set the Yuan at a USDCNY fixing of 6.3154, a strengthening of a massive 0.54% – the most since 2005 - following the manic end of trading PBOC intervention on Friday that sent the Yuan soaring some 300 pips from 6.3475 to 6.3175.

So while the Chinese capital outflow is accelerating with every passing day, and which may now be best seen in the daily surge in the price of Bitcoin which has become a preferred means…
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Greek Banks Need €14 Bn Recapitalization Following Latest Stress-Free Tests

Courtesy of Mish.

Greek banks did much better than expected in the latest ECB stress test (undoubtedly stress-free). The ECB’s adverse scenario shows Greek banks only underfunded to the tune of €14 Billion.

A scramble is now underway to raise that amount and Stabilize the Greek Banking Sector.

Greece’s four big banks will this week finalise recapitalisation plans to raise €14bn the European Central Bank says they require, in the latest move to stabilise the Greek economy.

After a weekend in which the ECB announced the result of stress tests for the banks and the Greek parliament passed legislation paving the way for the state to inject more funds into the sector, a senior Greek banker said the banks’ needs were manageable, but stressed that time was short.

Much attention has focused on whether the recapitalisation of the four banks — Piraeus Bank, National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank and Eurobank — will dilute international investors’ equity stakes.

“So far, so good . . . the outcome of the stress tests could have been much worse,” the banker said. He was referring to the ECB’s finding that the banks would be short of €14.4bn of capital under the so-called “adverse scenario”, where lenders must be able to withstand a worsening of economic and financial conditions. “But there’s still a lot of work to be done in a very short time.”

The banks have until Friday to present their recapitalisation plans for approval by the European Central Bank’s single supervisory mechanism.

One person with knowledge of the discussions added that the government would steer clear of heavily diluting international investors’ equity.

“We’re looking at a 25 per cent direct equity stake for the Greek state and 75 per cent in the form of cocos [hybrid bonds that convert into equity only if a bank’s capital falls below a certain level],” this person said.

In addition, the senior banker also suggested that it would be counter-productive to “bail-in” senior bondholders to any recapitalisation by imposing losses on them, even though such a course of action might be possible under the new framework legislation.

“It is clear that if adopted [a bail-in] would become a legal minefield that could affect the sector’s overall stability,” the banker said.

Stress-Free Results

Heaven forbid bondholders take any losses. And of course the €14 Billion stress-free result was better than anyone expected: nudge-nudge, wink-wink….

Continue Here


Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons


Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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