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Monday, May 6, 2024

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  1. phil

    Nice recovery by the indexes into the close – even the Nasdaq only down 0.6% now.  

    Oil drifting lower and /NG rejected at $2.40 and /RB rejected at $1.55 but a pretty strong day with the Dollar up over 95 again. 

    All done with the portfolios – let me know if I missed anything:

    Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP):  Here's our 4/7 review, we're up 45.4 at $145,370 and that's up and up a very nice $20,000 in the past two weeks as we made some very good adjustments and, even better, LABU is deep in the money and will pay us $4,000 but only shows net -$250, so the portfolio is actually $4,250 better off than it shows.  

    We're only using $77,000 in margin (1/4), so we're well-positions to be flexible moving forward and we're not going to add hedges into the weekend – we'll just see how next week goes.  

    Butterfly Portfolio Update:  Here's our 4/12 update.  We jumped to +163.1% since then as the falling flat market is perfect for our Be The House strategies.  $263,052.50 and it's a very low-margin strategy, using just $98,250 (20%) for our current positions.  

    As we discussed earlier – we took a hit on MSFT but other stuff did better and we're $18,000 better off in 10 days, so nothing to complain about and this portfolio is self-hedging – though it may lose $18,000 as fast as it gained it, the point is that it does what it's supposed to do, which is drop CASH!!! to the bottom line month after month – and we have 88% cash – in fact.  

    Short-Term Portfolio Update (STP):  Here's our 4/8 review.  At this point, the STP is more like a $440,000 pile of cash on the side for the LTP.  That's really great is it's up 381.7% at $481,727 and we're only using $55,300 in margin to maintain these positions so, as I said, it's pretty much just a cash pile with a couple of hedges.  We're actually up $7,000 in 3 weeks and we shouldn't be so I do think we have to take a hard look at this portfolio and find a way to get more bearish – or we may not be protecting the LTP enough on the way back down (if we ever do go down).  

    This means we can have lots of fun playing late earnings in May! 

    Long-Term Portfolio Update (LTP):  Here's our 4/8 review.  Here's our 4/12 review, Part 2.  Wow, up 93.7% at $968,663 is almost a double in it's own right and we've powered up $83,000 in 10 days on this rally we've been complaining about.  surprise  It's been a hell of a bull market and all those materials plays we stuck with (and doubled down) are starting to pay off like gangbusters.  Of course, we expect the LTP to do the best when the market is going up – it's 100% bullish.  

    The problem is we have so many positions, these reviews are getting to be a real pain.  I had wanted to cut a lot more when we did the review but I liked them so much I couldn't.  Of course, now that we've gained $80,000 in two weeks – I'm glad we didn't cut more but jeeze, how long can this keep going?  

    So, overall, we're doing great and, as usual, I'd be happier cashing in and starting from scratch but I do love pretty much all of the remaining positions after two months of trying to cut back.  This is the curse of the value investor – it's not like there are many stocks I like better than I could replace these with so, by default – we stick with many of our longs, even after they've made huge gains.



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