Archive for June, 2016

Regression to Trend: The Latest Look at Long-Term Market Performance

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

Quick take: At the end of June the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 82% above its long-term trend, up slightly from 81% the previous month.


About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let’s apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question.

Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We’re using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.

The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.79%.

Regression to Trend

The peak in 2000 marked an unprecedented 142% overshooting of the trend — nearly double the overshoot in 1929. The index had been above trend for two decades, with one exception: it dipped about 15% below trend briefly in March of 2009. At the beginning of July 2016, it is 82% above trend, within the 69% to 91% range it has hovered in for the past 32 months. In sharp contrast, the major troughs of the past saw declines in excess of 50% below the trend. If the current S&P 500 were sitting squarely on the regression, it would be around the 1146 level.

Incidentally, the standard deviation for prices above and below trend is 40.6%. Here is a close-up of the regression values with the regression itself shown as the zero line. We’ve highlighted the standard deviations. We can see that the early 20th century real price peaks occurred at around the second deviation. Troughs prior to 2009 have been more than a standard deviation below trend. The peak in 2000 was well north of 3 deviations, and the 2007 peak was above the two deviations.

Stanrdard Deviations


Footnote on Calculating the Regression: The regression on the Excel chart above is an exponential regression to match the logarithmic vertical axis. We used the Excel Growth function to draw the line. The percentages…
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The Collapse Of Western Democracy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

Democracy no longer exists in the West. In the US, powerful private interest groups, such as the military-security complex, Wall Street, the Israel Lobby, agribusiness and the extractive industries of energy, timber and mining, have long exercised more control over government than the people. But now even the semblance of democracy has been abandoned.

In the US Donald Trump has won the Republican presidential nomination. However, Republican convention delegates are plotting to deny Trump the nomination that the people have voted him. The Republican political establishment is showing an unwillingness to accept democratic outcomes.

The people chose, but their choice is unacceptable to the establishment which intends to substitute its choice for the people’s choice.

Do you remember Dominic Strauss-Kahn? Strauss-Kahn is the Frenchman who was head of the IMF and, according to polls, the likely next president of France. He said something that sounded too favorable toward the Greek people. This concerned powerful banking interests who worried that he might get in the way of their plunder of Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. A hotel maid appeared who accused him of rape. He was arrested and held without bail. After the police and prosecutors had made fools of themselves, he was released with all charges dropped. But the goal was achieved. Strauss-Kahn had to resign as IMF director and kiss goodbye his chance for the presidency of France.

Curious, isn’t it, that a woman has now appeared who claims Trump raped her when she was 13 years old.

Consider the political establishment’s response to the Brexit vote. Members of Parliament are saying that the vote is unacceptable and that Parliament has the right and responsibility to ignore the voice of the people.

The view now established in the West is that the people are not qualified to make political decisions. The position of the opponents of Brexit is clear: it simply is not a matter for the British people whether their sovereignty is given away to an unaccountable commission in Brussels.

Martin Schultz, President of the EU Parliament, puts it clearly: “It is not the EU philosophy that the crowd can decide its fate.”

The Western media have made it clear that they do not accept the people’s decision either. The vote is said to be “racist” and therefore can be


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The New Narrative For Earnings: Blame Brexit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Every quarter there is always a fallback narrative put forth as to why companies fail to meet earnings expectations, and we now have that narrative for the rest of 2016 (and perhaps through 2025): Brexit.

As we discussed yesterday, as we enter into Q2 earnings season the main focus on all earnings calls will be to what extent Brexit will impact business for the rest of the year. Will firms guide down materially due to the UK referendum, or will guidance largely not be impacted, this is going to be the main focus of analysts and investors. To wit:

the main focus (by far) will be on the CQ2 earnings season (the first few reports will hit during the week of 7/11 but the heaviest volume will be during the week of 7/18 and 7/25). The CQ2 earnings season will be particularly important as investors are eager to hear updates from CEOs/CFOs on the extent to which Brexit-related disruptions materially impacted the outlook for their businesses. If the tone on the Jul/Aug conf. calls sounds relatively similar to the Apr/May updates (i.e. Brexit is acknowledged but doesn’t dramatically change H2 guidance) that would go a long way towards alleviating investor concern. Prior to the 6/23 referendum investors were penciling in a ~$130 SPX figure for ’17 – if that number only has a couple of dollars of downside stocks will continue stabilizing.

Almost right on cue, here is Reuters today planting the seed that Brexit can now be used as an excuse for firms that need to lower guidance without any pushback.

From Reuters

Foreign exchange volatility and economic uncertainty after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union have imperiled a projected profit rebound in the United States, where companies have been stuck in an earnings recession since last year.

U.S. companies doing business abroad are at particular risk because of a jump in the dollar since last week’s referendum and expectations of a potential stumble in European economies.

A strong dollar and plummeting oil prices slammed U.S. corporate earnings starting in 2015, but the stabilization of crude prices and the dollar in recent months has led investors to bet on a return to modest growth


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Driver In Fatal Self-Driving Tesla Crash Had Recently Posted Video Praising Car’s Autopilot

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Call it a case of tragic irony.

Earlier today, Tesla reported (with a one day delay so that perhaps its stock wouldn't get clobbered ahead of quarter end rebalancing) that a 40-year-old Ohio man, named Joshua Brown, was killed when his 2015 Model S drove under the trailer of an 18-wheeler on a highway near Williston, Florida, sending Tesla stock lower nearly 3%.

In its defense, Tesla said in a blog post that the autopilot didn’t notice the white side of the tractor trailer against a brightly lit sky, so the brake wasn’t applied; the company reported the May 7 incident to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Surprisingly, it took the company nearly two months to notify its shareholders of what was a material event to the business model of a company whose "autopilot" feature has been pinned as one of the core growth drivers, pardon the pun; furthermore, a virtually assured outcome of this tragic accident is a costly recall (not to mention litigation) one which will soak up even more of the company's already massive cash burn.

And while the details of the accident are sure to add fuel to the debate over whether self-driving cars are ready for the real world (they are not, especially when the "auto pilot" is merely a gimmick meant to boost the price of an overhyped stock, while masking the inherent flaws of a substandard luxury car by piling on even more hype), the real irony is that Brown, who was killed while using his Tesla Model S’s autopilot feature, had previously praised precisely the same feature and had posted video of Tesla autonomous driving ability helping to save him from a collision.

Joshua Brown died May 7 in a motor vehicle accident, according to an online obituary. The same picture used with that obituary was used on the YouTube account that posted the near miss in April, and as MarketWatch reports a Florida coroner confirmed Thursday that the driver killed in the crash there was named Joshua Brown.

In an image from an online video posted by Brown driving his Tesla Model S.

According to the Google account linked to his YouTube, Brown was the


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“Off The Grid” Indicators Reveal True State Of U.S. Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Nick Colas of Convergex

Summary: Our basket of unorthodox economic indicators shows a U.S. economy that is growing, but at a very slow pace and with a notable sense of social unease.  On the plus side, used car prices are defying all expectations by remaining robust – that helps trade-in values for new car purchases.  Dealer inventories of new cars are also in good shape.  Food stamp program participation is trending lower, although +44 million Americans (14% of the total population) still need government assistance to eat.  On the cautionary side of the coin, large pickup truck sales have turned negative – a proxy for small business confidence in a range of industries.  Consumer spending per day is declining, and our Bacon Cheeseburger Index is still flashing a deflationary warning.  Lastly, the FBI reports that there have been 11.7 million background checks for firearm sales through May.  At this rate, total year sales could reach 28 million, versus 8-9 million before the Financial Crisis.

We’ve been doing these “Off the Grid” indicator reports for years, and the most common question we get about them is “Why”?  As in “Why do we care about data points that policymakers don’t talk about?”   And “Why does any of this matter?”

Now we have an example of why: Brexit.  To look at the standard economic talking points, the British people should have been happy to go with the status quo and “Remain”.  Consider these customary measures of employment, inflation, output, and well-being:


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What’s The Car Preference Of Millennials? Bentley – Of Course

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As many millennials have resorted to living with their parents in order to save on expenses, it turns out that “the other half” are out driving luxury cars.

Millennials (described as ages 19-34) who aren’t living at home are are choosing premium cars and SUVs as their ride of choice ABC News reports. Bentley, the luxury British automaker first noticed the shift a few years ago as millennials starting leasing and financing vehicles such as the Continental GT in 2013, and now millennials account for a stunning 8% of Bentley sales the company said.

Millennials represent an increasingly important customer base. They are the largest potential customer group today, and their influence is greater than simply the money they have to spend. We believe that this generation’s approach to life and social issues will have more impact than merely their money.” said James Pillar, Bentley’s head of marketing. For Bentley, we’re sure money spent buying their cars is the top ranked impact that millennials will have.

Manhattan Motorcars in New York City has sold 33 new Bentleys so far this year, eight of which were sold to millennials the dealership said.

Millennials are looking to set themselves apart. They want to be catered to, and they want a unique experience. They want to make a statement.” said Danielle Weinstein, a salesperson with Manhattan Motorcars. Weinstein posts Bentley videos on a YouTube channel she set up to connect with millennials who have the cash to splurge on a luxury car (the average lease is about $2,400 a month). “Millennials are drawn to social media advertising. They come into the dealership to network. I know social media attracts millennials.” Weinstein added.

AutoTrader.com conducted a study of millennial car buyers and shoppers in 2013 and found that 32% of millennials said they “like to impress people with their lifestyle”, and 40% “like to show off their taste.” In addition, millennials said owning the “best brand” is important to them.

Perfect, young and materialistic – if these millennial Bentley drivers aren’t already employed by a Wall Street firm, we suggest they immediately apply.

The luxury car of choice isn’t just Bentley however, as Audi, Jaguar and Land Rover have all acknowledged an uptick in Millennial business.

“We’ve seen a 23% increase in


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John DeVoy, Former Baupost Director Hired By Loomis Sayles

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

John DeVoy, a long time analyst at Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group has left the hedge fund for a position at Loomis Sayles. Devoy formerly worked at Loomis before spending close to ten years at the Boston based hedge fund. The news was announced via a press release from Loomis.  The statement says that DeVoy will be returning to the company “as a dedicated credit strategist for the flagship full discretion team.”

Also see Will Baupost Follow Its Own “North Star”

Baupost Group’s Seth Klarman Sees ’50 Shades of Value’

Devoy was a managing director and later appointed principal sometime around 2008 according to a 2008 letter to investors.

John DeVoy – According to the press release:

John DeVoy was a vice president and high yield credit analyst covering chemicals, telecommunications and convertible bonds at Loomis Sayles from 2000-2002. He returns to Loomis from Boston University, where he was a full-time faculty member of the finance department with responsibilities including MBA Investments, Corporate Finance and Introduction to Finance. Prior to teaching at BU, John was a managing director at The Baupost Group from 2005-2013, where he was responsible for sourcing, analyzing and investing in corporate distressed debt and distressed structured products. John served as senior analyst for a start-up capital structure arbitrage hedge fund at Hammerman Capital Management from 2002-2005. Before his first stint at Loomis Sayles, he was a senior investment analyst at Liberty Mutual from 1995-2000.

John received his Bachelor of Arts degree from Harvard College in 1993 and his MBA with a concentration in finance from Boston College in 1994.

There is a slight discrepancy between the release and the letter on the position DeVoy held at Baupost. The fund did not respond to a request for comment.

The departure and hiring was first reported by Charles Stein of Bloomberg News earlier today.

The full press release can be found here.

John DeVoy

The post John DeVoy, Former Baupost Director Hired By Loomis Sayles appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Defending your liberty with a rifle.

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

“When governments fear the people, there is liberty.  When the people fear the government, there is tyranny.”

-Author unknown, but darn sure historically accurate.

So, many of you probably read James Traub’s article this week.  It seems to have caused quite a stir.

‘Elites’ Called To Arms: “It’s Time To Rise Up Against The Ignorant Masses

I couldn’t help but read it in context with my earlier article, hedgeless_horseman’s Revolutionary Call to Arms.  I hope that many of you read my article and already have started to proceed through the 20 steps in order.  

However, if you are a veteren or active duty military, I invited you to skip to items 15-18, in my article, Never forget? Most veterans don’t give a shit about America’s perpetual warfare.

15.  Research your two senators and one congressman at https://www.opensecrets.org/ Make a list of their 10 biggest donors, and send the list to “your representative” in an email or letter.

16.  Read War is a Racket, by Major General Smedley D. Butler.

17.  Read On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society, by Lt. Col. Dave Grossman.

18.  Watch the online video of the TED Talk, A radical experiment in empathy, by Sam Richards.

I certainly don’t see myself as “leadership” per Traub’s use of the term, but I do value truth, and do try to love my neighbor as I love myself.    To that end, I will continue to try to “un-delude the ignorant” (especially myself) with more of what Traub calls, “reason, expertise, and the lessons of history.”  Speaking of the lessons of history, especially in relation to Items 11-12 of my Revolutionary Call to Arms, I would like to reflect for a moment on this passage from the Declaration of Independence before getting to expertice and reason.

“WE hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness--That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed.”

Is that


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The Militarization Of The US Goes Beyond Police Departments”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Originally posted at TelesurTV.net,

Nonmilitary federal agencies have spent almost US$1.5 billion on guns, ammunition, and military-style equipment.

 The Internal Revenue Service spent nearly US$11 million on arms.

A new report by a taxpayer watchdog group reveals that the growing militarization in the United States goes beyond police departments by showing how nonmilitary federal agencies are arming themselves like military units.

The report “The Militarization of America” examines government expenditures by 67 federal agencies between 2006 and 2014 and found that they spent US$1.48 billion stockpiling guns, ammunition and other military-style equipment.

“The recent growth of the federal arsenal begs the questions: Just who are the feds planning to battle?” American Tranparency’s Adam Andrzejewski, the author of the report, recently wrote in Forbes.

The report states that “administrative agencies including the Food and Drug Administration, Small Business Administration, Smithsonian Institution, Social Security Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Mint, Department of Education, Bureau of Engraving and Printing, National Institute of Standards and Technology, and many other agencies purchased guns, ammo, and military-style equipment.”

For example, the Internal Revenue Service spent nearly US$11 million arming itself, while the Environmental Protection Agency spent US$3.1 million.

The report also states: “The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service spent US$4.77 million purchasing shotguns, .308 caliber rifles, night vision goggles, propane cannons, liquid explosives, pyro supplies, buckshot, LP gas cannons, drones, remote controlled helicopters, thermal cameras, military waterproof thermal infrared scopes, and more.”

“As the Obama administration and its allies are pushing hard for an assault weapons ban on private citizens, taxpayers are asking why IRS agents need AR-15s,” wrote report author Andrzejewski. “After grabbing legal power, federal bureaucrats are amassing firepower. It’s time to scale back the federal arsenal.”

*  *  *

Full report below:

Oversight TheMilitarizationOfAmerica 06102016

*  *  *

Are they arming themselves against terrorists or you?





Judicial Watch Demands DOJ Inspector General Probe Into “Scandalous” Lynch-Clinton Meeting

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The political scandal of the day was the news that on Monday evening (coincidentally just before the Benghazi report was released), Bill Clinton and US Attorney General Loretta Lynch just happened to meet on the tarmac at a Phoenix airport – totally unplanned of course. Clinton saw the attorney general and wanted to say hello, so Clinton boarded Lynch’s plane to talk for a bit. Sure, just a quick chat about the weather, his putting stroke, anything except oh, say, an update on what was about to be released on Benghazi, and especially not an update on the ongoing FBI investigation into Hillary.

Our conversation was a great deal about his grandchildren. It was primarily social and about our travels. He mentioned the golf he played in Phoenix, and he mentioned travels he’d had in West Virginia. There was no discussion of any matter pending for the department or any matter pending for any other body. There was no discussion of Benghazi, no discussion of the State Department emails, by way of example” Lynch told reporters.

While Lynch claims it was a completely random encounter with Hillary Clinton’s husband, even Barack Obama’s former advisor David Axelrod admitted that the meeting created “bad optics”

I take @LorettaLynch & @billclinton at their word that their convo in Phoenix didn’t touch on probe. But foolish to create such optics.

— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) June 30, 2016

Sensing an opportunity to drive home a point about the Clintons’ lack of judgment, Trump quickly pounced on the meeting.

“It is an amazing thing,” Trump said during an interview on the Mike Gallagher Show, noting the pair met on an airplane at the Phoenix airport. “It was really a sneak. It was something they didn’t want publicized, as I understand it,” Trump said, regarding the meeting Monday night.  “I think it’s so terrible; I think it’s so horrible. I think it’s one of the big stories of this week, of this month, of this year,” Trump continued.

“How bad a judgment is it for him or for her to do this? Who would do this?” Trump asked.

it won’t end there. Moments ago, conservative watchdog organization Judicial Watch today requested


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Phil's Favorites

How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

 

How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

Courtesy of 

Despite the recent selloff, things are still relatively fine. I know nobody wants to hear this right now, but the S&P 500 is still up double digits over the last year and 36% over the last three years. What has people shook, understandably, is the speed of this decline.

Depending on where stocks close today, we could be looking at a 10% haircut in just five sessions. Over the last 20 years, this only happened during the Yuan devaluation in 2015, the Eurozone crisis in 2011, the GFC (global financial crisis) in ’08 and ’09, and the dotcom bubble in ’00, &rsqu...



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Zero Hedge

NYSE Announces Disaster-Recovery Test Due To Virus Fears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a somewhat shocking sounding move, given administration officials' ongoing effort to calm the public fears over the spread of Covid-19, The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will commence disaster-recovery testing in its Cermak Data Center on March 7 amid coronavirus concern, Fox Business reports in a tweet, citing the exchange.

During this test, NYSE will facilitate electronic Core Open and Closing Auctions as if the 11 Wall Stree...



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ValueWalk

Cities With The Most 'New' And Tenured Homeowners

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Homeownership is a major investment. Not just financially, but when a person or family purchases a home, they’re investing years – if not decades – in that particular community. 55places wanted to find out which real estate markets are luring in new homebuyers, and which ones are dominated by owners that haven’t moved in decades. The study analyzed residency data in more than 300 US cities and revealed the top 10 cities with the most tenured homeowners – residents who’ve lived in and owned their home for more than 30 years – are sprinkled across ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



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Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



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The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.