Courtesy of Mish.
CNNmoney author Patrick Gillespie quotes Macroeconomic Advisers’ senior managing director Joel Prakken: Stocks Would Fall 8% if Trump Wins.
Prakken cites “uncertainty” under trump vs. stability under Clinton. What a hoot. Is uncertainty worse than ruinous policies?
If Donald Trump wins in November, U.S. stocks would fall about 8%, erasing all its gains for the year.
That’s according to models from forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, which estimates that a Trump victory would cause stocks to head south dramatically, riled by the uncertainty of his economic policies, which include threats against Mexico and China, two of America’s top trade partners.
“There’s just a lot of uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency,” says Joel Prakken, senior managing director at Macroeconomic Advisers. “There’s all kinds of stuff to be worried about there.”
Markets hate uncertainty. And Trump’s policies — or lack of detail about them — raise eyebrows, Prakken says. Conversely, if Hillary Clinton wins, stocks would bounce up about 2%, according to Macroeconomic Advisers. Since her policies are considered similar to President Obama’s and her odds of winning are higher, her victory would cause less of a stir in either direction.
Down 8 vs. Up 2
Apparently, absurdly priced equities and bonds do not even matter.
Speaking of uncertainty, Is Hillary going to directly intervene in Syria? Start a war with Russia with her ridiculous no fly zone proposal? Will Hillary’s global trade prosecutor idea be any better than Trump’s wall?
That last question was a trick question. There will be no wall with Mexico because Congress will not approve it.
If stock markets hated uncertainty, they would never rise.
