Archive for 2016

US Desperately Pumps “Humanitarian” Smokescreen For Failing Syria Ceasefire

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Finian Cunningham via Strategic-Culture.org,

Washington’s lie about seeking a genuine ceasefire in Syria is in danger of being exposed for the world to see. So, hilariously, a charade is being hurriedly orchestrated in order to hide this ignominy. As usual, the Syrian government is being scapegoated for the real cause of violence in the country. That real cause is Washington’s state-sponsored terrorist-fueled war for regime change.

After four days of continuing deadly breaches by US-backed «rebels» since the Kerry-Lavrov ceasefire deal was implemented last Monday, Washington and the dutiful Western mainstream media are preparing the inevitable excuses.

Rather than focusing on ongoing «rebel» violence in contravention of the truce, US Secretary of State John Kerry fingered the Syrian government for preventing humanitarian access to insurgent-held eastern Aleppo as the reason for why the ceasefire is in danger of collapsing.

Kerry accused the Syrian government of causing «unacceptable repeated delays» in delivery of humanitarian aid convoys to the northern city. Some 300,000 people are estimated to be stuck in dire conditions in the eastern side of Aleppo, which has become a key battleground in the five-year war.

So, in Washington’s artful spin of events, it is the Syrian government of President Bashar al Assad which is reneging on the ceasefire arrangement by blocking food and medical supplies to starving civilians. This, of course, plays handily into the broader Western narrative that the Syrian «regime» is the ultimate villain of the piece. The vile Assad is mercilessly denying children food and water, goes the spin.

Based on that premise, Washington is giving notice that it will not follow through on its ceasefire commitment to join with Russian air forces for targeting terror groups like ISIS (Daesh) and al Nusra Front. Those anticipated «joint operations» between US and Russian aircraft were supposed to be the highlight of the ceasefire plan worked out last weekend in Geneva by Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.

But that supposed «breakthrough» is now in doubt. McClatchy News reported at the end of the week: «US to Russia – Syria military cooperation not guaranteed».

US State Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters four days into the truce: «If, by Monday we have continued to see reduced violence and no humanitarian access, there will be no Joint Implementation Center [with Russian military]».

Washington


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Haitian Senate President Exposes Clinton Foundation: “Hillary Clinton Tried To Bribe Me!”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Former Haitian President of Senate is speaking out to tell the truth about Clinton Foundation at a Trump event! The former president said that Clinton was trying to buy him. She tried to appeal to him (bribe him).

She defrauded the people of Haiti…

“I spent 4 hours with Bill Richardson to tell Bill Clinton not to invade Haiti.

A week later the embassy called me and told me that Bill Clinton has a messenger for him.

He came and told me to sign with Bill Clinton, join his movement and Clinton will make me the richest man in Haiti.

I told him he is a principled man and I will not sell out…

A week later, Clinton revoked my visa.”

He just challenged Trump to ask Hillary Clinton to publish the audit of all the money they have stolen from Haiti in 2010.

h/t Jim Quinn ‘s The Burning Platform blog,





Japandemonium: Government Blasts “Sexual Apathy” Amid Worrying Number Of Virgins

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Japan’s demographic challenges are well-known: It’s home to the world’s oldest population and has a shrinking birthrate and an astonishing number of single people. But, as The Independent reports, it seems that, despite government efforts to incentivize marriage and child-rearing, things aren’t quite trending in the right direction.

According to the Japan Times, a new survey of Japanese people ages 18 to 34 found that 70 percent of unmarried men and 60 percent of unmarried women are not in a relationship. It gets worse: Around 42 percent of men and 44.2 percent of women admitted that they were virgins.

As The Indepdent explains, the Japanese government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said it wants to raise the nation’s fertility rate from 1.4 to 1.8 by 2025. It’s offering better child-care services and tax incentives for married couples, though such programs have yet to bear statistical fruit.

 Most people surveyed said they want to get married at some point. It’s just not clear when.

“They want to tie the knot eventually. But they tend to put it off as they have gaps between their ideals and the reality,” Futoshi Ishii, head researcher for the study, told Japan Times. “That’s why people marry later or stay single for life, contributing to the nation’s low birthrate.”

This is not unique to Japan — in various parts of the developed world, economic uncertainty is reshaping the way millennials and other young people conceive of their sex lives and marital choices. But it’s particularly pronounced in the Asian nation, where experts and government officials have spent the better part of a decade fretting over the country’s population decline and, as WorldViews once put it, “sexual apathy.”





Police Seek Motive Behind NYC Bombing, As Strange SJW Manifesto Take Credit For Explosion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a day in which the Islamic State claimed responsibility for a “soldier” who stabbed nine people in a Minnesota Mall, authorities were urgently trying to avoid labeling last night’s IED explosion in midtown Manhattan which injured 29 people, as the second terrorist attack in the same day. So, it not terrorism, what was it? According to the latest attempt to steer the narrative, and as we reported last night, investigators are treating the explosion as an “intentional act,” and while they haven’t ruled out terrorism, weren’t willing to label the explosion as a terrorist act until authorities had a better idea of a motive, Mayor Bill de Blasio said.

Manhattan: New video shows moments before the explosion that went off at West 23 St 7th Ave. pic.twitter.com/I2Bhav2KBx

— NYC Scanner (@NYScanner) September 18, 2016

Investigators had recovered bomb components near the explosion scene that are “indicative” of an improvised explosive device, NYC’s new Police Commissioner, James O’Neill said. Additionally, officials said they were trying to determine if the explosion in Manhattan, an unexploded device that was found four blocks away, and a blast earlier in the day about 80 miles away in New Jersey, were the work of the same individual or group, even if – as mayor de Blasio would like you to believe – there was no element of actual terrorism.

According to the WSJ, authorities on Sunday said they see similarities between the bombs—cellphones were used in all three devices—but that they hadn’t made a clear connection. The main focus remains on the Manhattan blast. “I’m concerned,” said NYPD Commissioner James O’Neill. “We did have a bomb that was detonated…and we have no one apprehended so of course I’m concerned.” The explosion came on Mr. O’Neill’s second day on the job.

Investigators were also working to analyze the bomb in search of any DNA material and evidence from both devices is being sent to the FBI bioterrorism lab in Virginia for further analysis.

Luckily, nobody was seriously hurt: all of those injured were released from hospitals as of Sunday morning, authorities said. Most of the injuries were the result of flying debris and glass. One person suffered a serious injury that was described as a puncture wound, officials said.

Meanwhile, an odd


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China ‘Banking Stress Indicator’ Spikes To Record High

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

China’s credit-to-gross domestic product “gap” has reached 30.1%, the highest for the nation in data stretching back to 1995, according to the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements. As Bloomberg points out, the warning indicator for banking stress rose to a record in China in the first quarter, underscoring risks to the nation and the world from a rapid build-up of Chinese corporate debt.

The gap is the difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-term trend. As BIS explains:

The build-up of excessive credit features prominently in discussions about financial crises.

While it is difficult to quantify “excessive credit” precisely, the credit-to-GDP gap captures this notion in a simple way.

Importantly from a policy perspective, large gaps have been found to be a reliable early warning indicator (EWI) of banking crises or severe distress.

Readings above 10 percent signal elevated risks of banking strains. A blow-out in the number can signal that credit growth is excessive and a financial bust may be looming.

While the BIS says that credit-to-GDP gaps have exceeded 10 percent in


the three years preceding most financial crises, China has remained


above that threshold for most of the period since mid-2009, with no


crisis so far.

But, according to BIS data, in the first quarter, China’s gap exceeded the levels of 41 other nations and the euro area.

This feeds into the debate earlier that China “needs a recession.”





Breaking News And Best Of The Web

Courtesy of John Rubino.

Best Of The Web

Essence of decision – Salient Partners

The central bankers’ experiment: the great bust – Best Minds, Inc.

Jim Grant rejects Rogoff’s “curse of cash” – Zero Hedge

Weekly commentary: reversals – Credit Bubble Bulletin

If everything’s doing so great, how come I’m not? – Peak Prosperity

The (160 to 1) gold-silver ratio every investor needs to know about – SRSrocco Report

Negative interest rates and the war on cash (4) – Automatic Earth

Negative interest rates and the war on cash (3) – Automatic Earth

Deadpool – StockResearch

The matrix exposed – First Rebuttal

Magical thinking – Financial Sense

Negative interest rates and the war on cash (2) – Automatic Earth

The anti-Cinderella man (part one) – Burning Platform

—————————————————————–

Breaking News

The Economy

9/19    Wells Fargo sued by customers for “fraud and reckless behavior” – Zero Hedge

9/19    The ongoing collapse of economics – Graham Caswell

9/19    Italian banking crisis turns into Mission Impossible – Wolf Street

9/19    Markets brace for a preemptive strike by the Bank of Japan – Economic Calendar

9/19    Ken Rogoff’s government debt default plan – Zero Hedge

9/19    China’s debt may be reaching critical levels – ETF Daily News

9/19    The beginning of the end of the world – Medium.com

9/19    Why the Fed destroyed the market economy – Economic Prism

9/19    “These are the most dangerous markest I’ve ever witnessed” – Zero Hedge

9/18    Top investors have one theme on their minds: Danger – CNBC

9/18    Weekly commentary: Risk off, the BOJ and China – Credit Bubble

9/18    Negative bond yields drive investors towards riskier assets – Herald Scotland

9/18    Italy is the mother of all systemic threats – Zero Hedge

9/18    World’s #2 and 3 economies’ massive debt problems – National Interest

9/17    John Mauldin:: “Who the bad guys really are” – MunKnee

9/17    Zatlin: Expect layoffs


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Slow Moving Disaster In The European Banking System Revealed

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

This report is a condensed version of the Macroliqudity Pro Trader European Banking Report, a service of the Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader. 

ECB data on bank deposits for the Eurozone shows total bank deposits down sharply in July, breaking the uptrend in force since the low in 2014. That’s shocking considering that the ECB just boosted its money printing QE programs. Deposits should be rising steadily in concert with the amount of QE, not falling. But cash extinguishment and capital flight are increasing faster than the ECB can print.

We continue to see evidence that funds are fleeing the European banks for the relative “safety” of the US. My long running thesis that the US is and will be The Last Ponzi Game Standing is still well supported by the data. The looming problem is that all Ponzi schemes eventually collapse. The only question is the timing, which we deal with in other reports.

The charts below show that the European banking system is in a slow moving disaster. Only smoke, mirrors, and the unwarranted confidence of most Europeans in their banks and the ECB are keeping the system afloat.

The source of all European bank data in the charts that follow is the ECB Statistical Warehouse.

7/1/16 Money printing in the form of the ECB’s asset purchases should cause a euro for euro increase in deposits, but that has not occurred. Sorry to be repeating this, but it’s because a substantial portion of the ECB’s newly printed money flees the Eurozone to avoid the NIRP tax.

Euro Area Deposits - Click to enlarge

The problem grew worse in July when bank deposits in Europe actually contracted in spite of €70 billion per month in QE.  Deposits contracted by €95 billion in July and are down by €112 billion since April. Over that span the ECB printed €284 billion. The net effect was that all of that, plus another €95 billion was either extinguished or fled the European banking system. Imagine that!  €379 billion gone! Poof! You have to hand it to Super Mario. That is some disappearing act.

Bank deposits should increase euro for euro with the amount of ECB purchases.  When the


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Why Beijing Desperately Needs A Recession

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Jake Van Der Kamp, originally posted at The South China Morning Post,

New loans grew more than expected on the mainland last month… The monthly total grew to 948.7 billion yuan, compared with July’s total of 463.6 billion yuan, the central bank said. It beat expectations of 750 billion yuan from analysts polled by Reuters.

I like recessions. Let me repeat this in case you think your eyes have deceived you on this page. I like recessions. I think they do any economy an enormous amount of good.

The problem is that no-one ever changes direction in boom times. Whatever any business or industry is doing when things are going well, it is all just full speed straight ahead, pedal to the metal, don’t bother yourself with anything else going on around you. There is money to be made. Grab it while you can.

But economies have to change direction from time to time, just as racing cars do, and any racing driver who is still going top speed when he comes to a sharp bend in the track is in for serious trouble. Likewise economic performance. There are times when it is best to slow down.

Recession is the part of the cycle is where you say, “Ouch, got that wrong somewhere, it seems. Let’s think about this again. Perhaps we should do things a bit differently next time. Let’s work out how while we have time on our hands with things so slow just now.”

Even if this only results in cost cutting that makes the business more efficient in the next cycle, recession has proved itself valuable. But mostly it does a good deal more. It refocuses attention on new directions, new methods, new markets and new products. Paradox though it may seem, recession is where an economy grows up to its next stage of development.

It is my view that Beijing should recognise the mainland economy’s need for a recession now. It really is time to reconsider rustbelt industries and low margin export processing that trades on suppressed wages.

But all the latest news has brought us is another return to growth in the rustbelt and cheers that exports of the usual plastic consumer rubbish may be rising again. Most critically, there is no sign yet that


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“The Only Asset That Matters Right Now” – Treasury Correlations Have Never Been Higher

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a week in which there is not one but two critical central bank announcement within hours of each other on September 21 – first the Fed, followed hours later by the Bank of Japan – there is just one asset traders should keep an eye on: the 10Y Treasury.

As Goldman shows, as a result of an unprecedented scramble for duration over the past year courtesy of global NIRP, the sensitivity to bond yields is at its all time highs across all assets, which means whatever the 10Y does, everything else will do, especially as a result of the ongoing rout in risk-parity and systematic funds which create a positive selling (or buying) feedback loop.

For bonds, the beta to US 10-year yields is the most negative since data begins in the mid-1990s: this is a technical effect, as in a negative-rates world most bonds increasingly resemble zero-coupon bonds.

What about stocks? As GS observes, while equity investors also fear higher rates, they are not necessarily negative for equities and risky assets more broadly: this will depend on the speed and driver of rate increases.

Indeed, as we showed previously, in a time when Risk Parity funds have become the marginal price setter across all asset classes, a rapid deleveraging will lead to substantial losses in both bonds and equities.

This is also confirmed at the macro level: historically, with anchored inflation and low bond yields, rises in yields have tended to reflect better growth, supporting equity performance as investors lower the required equity risk premium. However, for this virtuous relationship to hold, growth needs to pick up alongside yields and rate volatility should be low, something we have failed to observe so far in this entire business cycle. If bond yields increase too rapidly, such as during the ‘taper tantrum’ in May 2013, the ‘Bund tantrum’ in April 2015, and the most recent Taper Tantrum II…

… “equities tend to struggle” Goldman concludes.

Which is why in the coming days, traders will have to keep an eye on two key things: not only the yield on long-dated bond yields, which have seen a substantial jump in the past week courtesy of the “chaos unleashed by the BOJ”,  but the speed with which


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Weekly Market Recap Sep 18, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

After the big selloff a week ago Friday, bulls rushed right back in Monday shooting the S&P 500 up 1.47% as Federal Reserve governor Brainard was dovish; some of Friday’s selloff was due to expectation she’d be hawkish.  The probability of a rate increase at the September Fed meeting fell to 15% from a previous reading of 24% post speech  After Monday, the Fed entered its “blackout” period ahead of its Sept. 20-21 policy-setting meeting.

Speaking at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Brainard said the Fed should be cautious about raising interest rates to avoid getting trapped in a low-growth, low-inflation environment.

However, all those gains was lost Tuesday.  Buyers came in again Thursday, which was surrounded by two relatively quiet and slightly negative days.  All in all, it is nice to see some volatility return from the snoozer that was late summer.  However heightened volatility brings more risk to the bulls.   From this perch there has been and continues to be zero expectation for a September rate hike as the Fed doesn’t want to be seen as “political” and trying to move the market ahead of November, but the Fed is at least trying to throw some bones out there to make the market a bit less complacent.

On the economic front, retail sales (-0.1% vs a +0.3% expectation) and industrial production (-0.4% vs -0.3% expectation) came in weaker than expected which is “good” if you love free Federal Reserve money for the rest of your life.  If you care about the actual economy – not so good.

“Retail sales number was disappointing, especially given that so many economists were forecasting an improvement in the second half of the year. The economy is growing at an anemic pace,” Wiegand said.

Here is a 5 day “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 via Doug Short.

spx-five-day

Did GM just shock Tesla?  The 2017 Chevy Bolt now has the same range as the Roadster.

This week a century-old Detroit automaker, General Motors Co., not Tesla, unveiled the latest breakthrough electric car. The 2017 Chevy Bolt


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Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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