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Testy Tuesday – 11,550 or Bust on the NYSE – STILL!

Treading water for two weeks.

On March 7th, I wrote: "Testy Tuesday – 11,550 or Bust on the NYSE" and yesterday the NYSE closed at 11,556.9 so no harm in waiting around for the Fed.  At the time we pointed out that declining volume was greater than advancing volume and that was still the case yesterday with 1.86Bn shares in decline vs. 1.15M shares moving higher in light trading but yesterday's action was tainted by a failure at the closing auction.  After-hours trading was suspended at 4:13 and all open orders were cancelled. 

It seems to be working again this morning but it's very scary when a major market system – THE major market system, fails on you.  If that had happened during a trading day – it would have been total chaos of the "flash-crash" variety.  Have I mentioned how much I love CASH!!! lately?  Hedges too!  

Our well-hedged Long-Term Portfolio is up over $9,000 since our 3/10 review despite the market not making any progress.  That's because we SELL risk to stock market gamblers using our system which teaches our Members to Be the House – NOT the Gambler.  Notice we are 75% CASH!!! (have I mentioned how much I love CASH!!!) but the positions we do have are on track to make $250,000 this year as they use options to both hedge and leverage the cash we do have in play.  You don't need to risk a lot to make a lot.

By selling risk premium, we don't need an up market to make money – flat or even slightly down works for us and anything less than slightly down kicks in our hedges and keeps us from losing too much.  You don't hit a lot of home runs following this strategy but your batting average usually leads the league!  

Image result for stock market balanceBalance is also key in this kind of market, we're slightly bearish overall, maybe 60:40 but we're moving towards 70:30, which is as extreme as we ever get in our positions.  If you are 100% bearish and you are wrong, and the market goes 20% against you – you have 80%.  If, on the other hand, you are 70:30 bearish and the market goes 20% against you, you end up 56/36, which is 92 – 18% better off and you only need an 8% gain to recover but, from 80%, you need a 25% gain to recover.  20% in your favor gives yields 84/24, which is 108 but you have that 108 when the market is at 80 – so plenty of money to take advantage of the dip.  See: "How To Get Rich Slowly."

I noted in yesterday's Report that we are getting more aggressive on the short side, using Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) as short-term focused shorts and we got great entries on both as they moved higher (which is what we hoped for) but now we'd like them to stop, please.  

Speaking of stopping please – last night President Trump was speaking in Louisville, KY and he repeated his pledge to "roll back drug prices" and that his administration intends to add pricing legislation to the current healthcare bill, or one coming up "right after."  Trump said: "The cost of medicine in this country is outrageous, many times higher that in some countries in Europe and elsewhere. Why? You know why? Campaign contributions. Who knows. But somebody's getting very rich. Medicine prices will be coming down. Way, way, way down."  

The Biotech Index (IBB) is probably the most sensitive to drug prices and look at the hit it took into the election as fear of Hillary coming down on prices took hold.  Now Trump, desperate to build his horrible approval ratings, is dipping into his greatest hits list – even if they are Hillary's.  While it's all just talk at the moment, a fun way to play yet another huge dip in IBB would be to buy the Sept $250 puts at $4.50 because the decay over 6 months is about 0.75/month and IBB should have a hard time getting over $300 while the Delta is 0.15 so a $10 drop in IBB will pay $1.50 for a quick (33%) gain.  

The mistake most people make in buying puts is they try to buy cheap ones that decay so rapidly that they don't have time for their gains to materialize.  Here we're simply reading the news and reacting to it with an appropriate bet that we are likely able to pull with very little damage should the narrative change.  

Freeport McMoRan (FCX) is one we have in our LTP already and they got some good news (as we expected) today and should be taking off.  The recent trade ideas from our Live Member Chat Room are still playable at the moment and they were:

FCX/Albo, Hanj – I do like them and no reason they should fall all the way back to $10.  In the LTP, we already have the 2019 $7/12 bull call spread with short $8 puts at net nothing (25) and that's on track but I suppose as a new play, you could use the following:

  • Sell 20 FCX 2019 $10 puts at $1.70 ($3,400) 
  • Buy 20 FCX 2019 $10 calls for $5 ($10,000) 
  • Sell 20 FCX 2019 $15 calls for $2.80 ($5,600) 

That's net $1,000 on the $10,000 spread that's $5,500 in the money to start with a potential gain of $9,000 at $15 (900%) and worst case is we own FCX at net $11, which is still about $2 off (15%) the current price.  ToS says margin is $2,000 so it's a nice, efficient trade and FCX is back to being 73% copper and 20% gold/molly with just a little oil and gas left.  

The reason I wouldn't add them to the OOP is that they just restructured and I'd want a better look at them before taking a big stand and a small stand (5-10) isn't worth taking up a slot when there are unknown factors in their valuation.

Submitted on 2017/03/20 at 3:19 pm

GLNCY/Pat – Well Zinc is hot right now and Glencore is huge but into a lot of stuff besides Zinc.  It's a good, steady, long-term hold but a crap dividend so I'd rather have FCX, which is $12.62 but you can sell 2019 $12 calls for $3.60 and $10 puts for $1.60 and that nets you in for $7.42/8.71 so you make $4.58 (62%) if called away at $12 (flat) or higher or you own 2x for $8.71, which is a 32% discount as your worst case.  To make that on GLNCY, it has to hit $13.77 but then the next cycle - it has to do it again while you can make your 62% every other year on FCX whether it's up or flat.  As a bonus, FCX used to pay a nice dividend, it was 0.56 in 2015 but they killed it last year and this year as they dumped out of that bad oil investment.  If they put it back on, you'll be in great shape. 

And that is how we trade at PhilStockWorld – Read the news, find a good stock, pick a good strategy, hedge the strategy.  After all that work we can go back on vacation until something else catches our eye.


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  1. Good Morning!

    Too funny Phil -  ~~ Just because I like the theory doesn't mean it's right – it's just fun and it really drives oil guys nuts when you talk about it.  It's the kind of thing that takes thousands of years to prove – we've only been drilling for 100.

    You don't know the half of it.  :)

    On NG,  it might be a rough couple of days, but as long as it does break 3.3 (NGV7) then I am betting on 3.1. Inventory story seems to go either way, so probably going to count on weather being mild to make it swing down. I DO want to go Long, promise.

  2. Added more lines to the Dow chart – needs to do the same for the S&P and Nasdaq but procrastinating in the hope of a correction!

  3. Technical analysis requires new skills!

    As we transition to the next level of technical analysis that is more quantitative and bot-oriented, we may see more swings of the old types from bull to bear and vice versa. Technical analysis is advancing and requires more computing power and math skills. Drawing lines on charts and looking for simple patterns no longer works. More details about this this may be found in my interview for Forbes by John Navin.

  4. Good morning…

    Phil – RE: AAPL announcement – they announced cheaper ipads and red iphone7s and a new app Clips that allows building expressive videos and sharing…


    Apple Inc. (AAPL) updated its iPad and iPhone offerings Tuesday, including a new iPad starting at $329 and featuring a brighter 9.7-inch Retina display. The $329 model iPad will have 32 gigabits of memory and Wi-Fi, while the $459 model with have 32GB, Wi-Fi and cellular. Apple also introduced RED special edition iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus smartphones, which will be available in stores starting March 24. The phones will be available in 128GB and 256GB models starting at $749. Separately, Apple introduced its new free Clips app that allows users to create expressive videos, that can be shared through Apple's Messages app, Facebook, Instagram and other social networks. Apple's stock gained 0.5% in premarket trade, putting it on track to open at a record high. It has run up 22% year to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 5.8%.

    -Tomi Kilgore; 415-439-6400;

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    03-21-17 0845ET

    Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

    Story ID: 20170321MW000166



  5. NG – meant to say does NOT break 3.3,, pretty close right now! :(

  6. Good Morning.

  7. ESPR -  Anybody know about this – Pharmboy?

    Success with bad cholesterol lowering drug.  FDA approval and market reaction.

    Shares are up +7% pre-market but do they may have much more to go.


  8. 1020  we shall see

  9. :)

  10. F wtf???

  11. Could be good for chips company – and your phone will be so much smarter:

    That could make for a 1+3 (quad-core) or 1+7 (octacore) layout, where each individual core has its own performance and power characteristics. The claim it's making is that this setup can improve responsiveness for AI, with a 50x boost in AI performance over the next 3-5 years, and 10x between the (still Cortex-A9) CPU and specialized "accelerator hardware." That matters, especially when one of these chips is using machine learning to drive your car, scanning the road ahead for potential hazards.

    Of course, it also could be extremely profitable for ARM and the companies that build on its technology (like Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Samsung, Apple and even Intel), as it claims that after shipping over 50 billion ARM-based chips between 2013 and 2017, it projects the world will buy over 100 billion by 2021.

  12. Don't know what is going with F – no news but another bad day! My guess is that $12 is close to support, but looking scary now!

  13. Good morning!  

    Here's the crux of the Dem case from yesterday's hearings (in case you forgot and thought it was a hearing about newspapers leaking national secrets):

    I love this one:

    Image may contain: 1 person, text

    That pretty much sums it up.

    Big Chart – We need an up day to avoid making down legs. 

    Correction/StJ – I don't think it's coming at this point, nothing seems to stop this rally.

    AAPL/Learner – Wow, that is cheap!  Amazing how fast prices come down.  Nice to see them keeping things fresh in between big announcements.  

    Mauldin/Latch – Good article. 

    ESPR/Learner – No sales and no earnings but a $1Bn market cap at $45 – someone thinks highly of them.  Apparently AMGN's competing drug failed as well so it leaves the market wide open but I don't know how big that market is. 

    F/Jabob – MS wrote a bad note on them.  

  14. Good Riddance….

  15. FU Morgan Stanley!!!!

  16. ESPR…would not touch them.  Cholesterol lowering 'injection'.  Not interested as we have what we need in that space.  They are teamed up with Regeneron.

  17. Hi Phil,

    Last night I was reading about self directed 401K plans and accuplan caught my attention I am fulltime employee and my employer provides generic plans with Fidelity what I was thinking was can I request or divert my contributions to such a 401K plan ? I was thinking of buying investment properties in a 401K plan that I can rent out. Would this be a good idea ?

    Thanks as always.


  18. Is it time to add to the M or F positions?

  19. Phil/AGNX

    Good morning!

    Thank you!

  20. Hello,

    Is /DX a good long now?

  21. the tick hasn't gone positive all am be cautious

  22. Correction / Phil – Then we will need some bigger lines!

  23. Wheeeeee!  Markets taking a power dive.

    Napolitano/1020 – That guy has been a total BS machine for years, funny how he finally goes down when a Rep is President.  

    Accuplan/Pat – Outside of my area of expertise but I like the sound of it.

    Adding/Jabob – As indicated by the very quick 100-point drop in the Dow – now is not the time to be adding to positions.  

    AGNX/Maya – AGNC?  Those guys I like and $19.71 is a good time to enter because it gives you more premium at the $20 strike, though it still sucks at just 0.25 for the June $20s.  Of course, you have to keep that in perspective as it's $1/year if you sell consistently.  You can pick up another $4 selling the 2019 $20 puts but, frankly, for $2.16 in dividends, I'd just sell the puts.  In fact, let's sell 10 AGNC 2019 $20 puts for $4 for the LTP.

    /DX/Kgabor – I'd rather play it bullish AFTER it gets back over the 100 line with tight stops below but you can play 99.50 with tight stops too.

    Tick/Angel – Better to wait.

    Image result for the tick

  24. feeding the bears, out of hibernation and hungry…

  25. NG..whhoooo, not wheee. But I will take it, V7 rejected at 3.3, I am even now, so will reduce by 2 my 4. Holding 2 TF shorts at 1382..WHEEE.   Should I keep hoping for more. Is this correction or BTFD?!<!< :)

  26. John nails the top:

    Yawn, just another all-time high Jodie ;-) Thanks doc j

    By the way, in case you want to know why Trump hates PBS and wants to kill Sesame Street:

    Little did we know Oscar was a Russian agent!  

    SCOTUS gives patent holders more time to sue

    You think the Dollar makes crazy moves, imagine having your life savings in Bitcoins:

    Record-breaking 2017 for ETFs fuels fears of stock market bubble ht

    With shock appeals ruling, the United States has effectively outlawed file-level encryption

    Yesterday, a US Appeals Court ruled against the person now detained for almost 18 months for refusing to decrypt a hard drive. The man has not been charged with anything, but authorities assert that the drive contains child pornography, and they want to charge him for it. As this is a toxic subject that easily spins off into threads of its own, for the sake of argument here and for sticking to the 10,000-foot principles, let’s say the authorities instead claim there are documents showing tax evasion on the drive. The principles would be the same.?

    Authorities are justifying the continued detention of this person – this uncharged person – with two arguments that are seemingly contradictory: First, they say they already know in detail what documents are on the drive, so the person’s guilt is a “foregone conclusion”, and second, they refuse to charge him until they have said documents decrypted. This does not make sense: either they have enough evidence to charge, in which case they should, or they don’t have enough evidence, in which case there’s also not enough evidence to claim with this kind of certainty there are illegal documents on the drive.

    In any case, this loss in the Appeals Court effectively means that file- and volume-level encryption is now illegal in the United States.

    So were there illegal documents on the drive? We don’t know. That’s the whole point. But we do know that you can be sent to prison on a mere assertion of what’s on your drive, without even a charge – effectively for life, even worse than the UK law which will jail you for up to five years for refusing to decrypt and which at least has some semblance of due process.

    TRUMP THREATENS HOUSE GOP: If you vote against healthcare bill, many of you will lose

    Michigan governor warns congressmen of GOP health bill's impact

    Under the guise of "reform," Republicans are trying to destroy safety regulations for American workers

    Trump administration lies to cover up erasing LGBT people in health surveys

    American spring break revelers chant Trump’s ‘build the wall’ while partying in Cancun

    is now , forming a coalition of 7,100+ cities committed to . ?


  27. Rut is down 2.25% while the rest hanging down 1%. I'm poking long just one contract at 1350 looking for a little bounce. VERY tight stop. 

  28. Inquiring minds want to know: Could this be the beginning of the much anticipated correction? Dollar down but market … down. SPY down below 3/8 recent low.Waiting for a rally to sell SPY or buy TLT and here it comes – maybe.

  29. Indexes bouncing off the 1% line so far (2% for RUT) but watch NYSE 11,500 (Must Hold) as that's a serious line.  Obviously, 0.2% is weak and 0.4% is strong now.  Looks to me like weak is going to fail and we leg further down though.

    Wall St. opens higher; Nasdaq hits intraday record

    Really good stuff:  From budget cuts at the DOE and EPA to demand and in the SPR, we're tracking key policies in the US

    Researchers think they're getting closer to making spray-on solar cells a reality

    Trump administration begins public shaming of sanctuary cities

    Since 2010, number of people killed by: Marijuana overdose: 0 Marijuana raids: 22

    Economic Confidence Strong, but Below Recent High…

    IBM is using Bitcoin tech to help businesses. People still hate Wells Fargo. Here’s what’s going on today:

    Relative weakness for small cap stocks signals traders are betting on tax reform delay

    Real-life Robocops will soon replace human police

    Photo published for Real-life Robocops will soon replace human police

    Is it any shock that Betsy DeVos' policy hurts struggling student borrowers?

    What makes Norway the world's happiest country? healthcare is part of it!

    China's money market rates grinding higher, adding stress for leveraged small lenders. 7 day repo rate now back above 3%

  30. Phil/AGNC

    The dividend is actually $2.16 PLUS $1.80 for 22 months.

    But I like the idea of selling the puts- one has to remember that the stock could hit $16 in a hurry too, as it did last year around this time

  31. /NG/Latch – We'll see if $3 holds.  

    /NKD CRASH!!!  

    Correction/8800 – Not even a proper sell-off yet at less than 1% on SPX but the day is young.

    AGNC/Maya – I just know I feel so much better when a $16 entry is my "worst case".

  32. 1355 is the stop for me

  33. me to at 1352  Up$3.3k  :)   come on NG!

  34. LATCH have you covered?

  35. angel – sorry don't understand. but I am out of TF. Still weeping with NG.

  36. That was a quick couple bucks, I'm all out now and it's time for lunch!!

  37. yes good i was asking if you covered your shorts..have a 30 point move go your way in the TF is amazing nice trade!

  38. Naybob & Scottmi – QUIK's announcement yesterday of a spot secondary took me by complete surprise.  Especially, since they had recently indicated that their cash position was sufficient.  Hopefully, it indicates that their production schedule has advanced faster than they thought.  Only idea here is that the requirements for the wearable product, (which we think is from Samsung), is bigger than previously thought or perhaps a Chinese smartphone manufacturer has moved up production on a new product.

    On the negative side, it could mean that the wearable schedule has been pushed out.  I don't believe that is the case, but it remains a possibility.

    Still have my overweight position, and remain positive.  Again, we'll see.

    BTW, one of the benefits of trading in these cheap micro-cap stocks is that even if the worst case develops, it isn't a huge blow to your portfolio(s).  Of course, its much harder to be right, but when you are, a 4-5 bagger can have a meaningful impact to your performance.

  39. Loaded up on some more F now at 11.89 and sold some May 12 straddles


    This is the land where nothing changes

    The land of red buses and blue blooded babies

    This is the place, where pensioners are raped

    And the hearts are being cut from the welfare state

    Let the poor drink the milk while the rich eat the honey

    Let the bums count their blessings while they count the money

    So many people can't express what's on their minds

    Nobody knows them and nobody ever will

    Until their backs are broken and their dreams are stolen

    And they can't get what they want then they're gonna get angry

    Well it ain't written in the papers, but it's written on the walls

    The way this country is divided to fall

    So the cranes are moving on the skyline

    Trying to knock down this town

    But the stains on the heartland, can never be removed

    From this country that's sick, sad, and confused

  41. Comment content omitted because it is too long.

  42. Good, quick trading on the bounces guys!  That's where the 5% Rule really comes in handy – we know exactly what kind of bounce to expect.

    9%/Pstas – I think that was based on very unrealistic assumptions that are not panning out. Of course, if the 9% earnings growth doesn't pan out then the forward p/e is drastically underestimated too.  

    After a strong open, IBB is down 2%.

    Biotechs under pressure after Trump (again) decries high drug prices

    • Investors appear to be saying one thing and doing another. Supposedly, the market has become less sensitized to President Trump's populist rhetoric about high drug prices and how his administration intends to attack the "problem." Today's sell-off indicates that quite a bit of sensitivity remains.
    • Representative tickers: (IBB -1.4%)(BIB -2.7%)(CNCR -4.4%)(ARKG -3.7%)(PJP -0.9%)(PPH -0.4%)(IHI -0.4%)(XHE -0.6%)(BIIB +1.7%)(AMGN -0.5%)(GILD -1%)(ABT +0.3%)(PFE +0.5%)(MRK)(BMY -0.4%)(GSK +0.4%)(VRX -0.8%)(AZN -0.1%)(TEVA -1.7%)(AGN +0.1%)

    Tumble in banks leads selloff as interest rates and oil prices fall

    • The 10-year yield is down another three basis to 2.42% amid a renewed selloff in energy, with oil (NYSEARCA:USOdown 1.5% to $47.50 per barrel.
    • TLT +0.75%, TBT -1.5%
    • The Financial Sector SPDR (XLF -2%), the KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE -4.1%), the KBW Bank SPDR (KRE -4.1%)
    • The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ -0.8%), S&P 500 (SPY -0.8%), DJIA (DIA -0.8%)

    Fed's Dudley: Need better bank incentives

    • Citing Wells Fargo's accounts scandal, New York Fed President William Dudley is calling for better incentives to drive performance on Wall Street, while stating banks have "a long way to go" in reforming internal culture.
    • More Fedspeak today: Eric Rosengren will speak in Indonesia, Esther George will discuss the economy at noon and Loretta Mester speaks at 6 p.m. ET on the outlook and communications.

    Kashkari: Fed should accept above-target inflation

    • Taking to Twitter for a live Q&A, the Minneapolis Fed President says he could tolerate 2.3% inflation as long as 2% remains the long-term target. "Not sure if my colleagues would really buy into that however," he adds.
    • Kashkari made news last week as the only FOMC voter to dissent from the rate hike. "In my opinion, [the] data didn't support a hike. Data basically hasn't changed."

    Northern Dynasty says filed joint motion with EPA to extend Pebble stay

    • Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK -7.1%) is sharply lower today but still nearly 20% higher since Friday after announcing that its Pebble partnership and the EPA filed a joint motion in federal court to extend a stay of proceedings in ongoing litigation.
    • NAK says it has made substantial progress in recent discussions with the EPA and will continue to negotiate the matter directly rather than through mediation.
    • Also, Alaska's two U.S. senators and sole U.S. House member reportedly sent a letter to EPA chief Scott Pruitt asking to reverse the agency's "recent pattern of preemptive and retroactive vetoes" related to the Pebble project.

    Nike slips nearly 1% ahead of earnings

    • The company is set to report after the close today, and Canaccord Genuity’s Camilo Lyon says he's yet to see evidence Nike (NKE -1.1%) is regaining market share even as the stock has advanced 13% this year.
    • He thinks it will be spring 2018 at the earlier until material improvement in Nike's offerings can compete with Adidas. Four reasons: 1) Share gains by Adidas and Puma have not slowed 2) Industry contacts indicate Nike's product pipeline remains devoid of signifiant innovation 3) Jordan product is readily available, meaning Nike is trying to stem share losses 4) Supplier signals have not improved.


    American Tower boosts 2017 guidance, resuming buyback

    • In an 8-K filing, American Tower (AMT +1%) notes an updated outlook after an agreement revision expected to generate another $100M in straight-line revenue.
    • The company now sees 2017 total property revenue of $6.31B-$6.49B, net income of $1.275B-$1.345B, and EBITDA of $3.91B-$4.01B.
    • That's due to an amended master lease agreement with a tenant.
    • American Tower also said it will resume a stock repurchase program that it set up in 2011. Under the plan, the company's authorized to buy back up to an additional $1.1B in common stock.

    Bank bulls bail; BofA -4.5% leads decline: Kass says "short"

    • "Group stink has never been more conspicuous than in financial sector stocks," says Doug Kass, calling the top in the piping hot names.
    • A strong economy, eased regulation, and higher interest rates have all been fully baked into valuations, says Kass, but being ignored: signs of a slowing economy, peaking auto sales, growing protectionism, and valuations at pre-crisis levels.
    • Then there's the housing market, and it's "reached an inflection point in price and activity," says Kass. He notes prices of higher-end West and East coast homes have turned lower – usually a bell-ringer for the residential housing cycle.
    • Favored shorts: MetLife (MET -1.1%), Lincoln Financial (LNC -2.9%), Goldman Sachs (GS -2%), Morgan Stanley (MS -2.7%). Others he's eyeing: Bank of America (BAC-4.4%), Citigroup (C -0.8%), JPMorgan (JPM -1.3%).
    • One name he's a fan of is Hartford Financial (HIG -0.5%).

    FU!!!  Canadian Solar -9% after Q4 miss, guides Q1 revenue below consensus

    • Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ): Q4 EPS of $0.24 misses by $0.08.
    • Revenue of $668.43M (-40.3% Y/Y) misses by $21.84M.
    • Press Release
    • Canadian Solar (CSIQ -9.2%) plunges more than 9% after missing expectations for both Q4 earnings and revenues, and guiding Q1 revenues below consensus.
    • CSIQ says it expects Q1 revenues of $570M-$590M vs. $683M analyst consensus estimate, with gross margin of 13%-15%, and sees FY 2017 revenues of $4B-$5B vs. $3.36B consensus.
    • CSIQ says total solar module shipments set a record high at 1,612 MW, vs. guidance of 1,400-1,500 MW, of which 1,581 MW were recognized in revenue, compared to 1,161 MW recognized in revenue in Q3.
    • For FY 2017, CSIQ expects total module shipments of 6.5-7 GW, with ~6.17 GW recognized in revenue, and expects to connect 1-1.2 GW of new solar projects globally in 2017.

    Auto names tripped up by Ally's warning on used car prices

    • Ally Financial (ALLY -0.1%) earlier guided to full-year adjusted EPS growth coming in a little soft thanks to lease and used vehicle price declines (and provision build).
    • The presentation noted a 7.1% Y/Y decline in the NADA index in Q1. Ally is seeing a 6.5% Y/Y fall.
    • AutoNation (AN -2.2%), Hertz (HTZ -5.7%), Lithia Motors (LAD -3.5%), CarMax (KMX-1.6%), Avis (CAR -6.9%), Asbury Auto (ABG -1.3%), Penske (PAG -2.8%), Group 1 (GPI -3.5%)

    Wynn Resorts upgraded to Buy at Aegis as Macau trends improve

    • Wynn Resorts (WYNN +0.3%) is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a $121 price target, raised from $95, at Aegis Capital, which says the company is well-positioned to benefit from a recovery in gambling in Macau.
    • According to, Aegis credits the Macau rebound to a slight easing of Beijing's anti-corruption campaign, new and higher-end casinos in Macau, and the extension of new credit, and expects Macau's total gross gaming revenue will jump 10% Y/Y in Q1 as the rebound in VIP gambling revenue in Macau likely will continue.
    • Wynn's casinos in Macau have greater leverage to VIP gamblers than their competitors, the firm says, adding that Wynn has made favorable changes to Wynn Palace that have made it more attractive to VIP gamblers.

    More losses for Kohl's, Macy's on Q1 caution

    • Cleveland Research's Scott Bender says Kohl's (KSS -2.3%) Q1-to-date comps look to be trending below estimates, with weather headwinds and tight inventory among the issues.
    • Again noting the weather, he says Macy's (M -2.1%) is looking "slightly softer," but the company could still hit Q1 consensus in part thanks to easier Y/Y comps.
    • Source: Bloomberg

    GNC perky on report of more Chinese interest

    • According to the FT, (NASDAQ:JD) has joined the likes of KKR, Fosun Group, ZZ Capital and others with interest in acquiring GNC Holdings (GNC +2.7%).

    Ruh-oh!  Bloomberg: Chevron's $1B sale of China oilfields fails to meet expectations

    • Chevron's (CVX +0.3%) sale of its stakes in three Chinese offshore oil fields has stalled after bids failed to meet expectations, Bloomberg reports.
    • CVX had hoped to sell its interests in three fields in China’s Bohai Bay for as much as $1B, but now it may wind up keeping the assets, according to the report.
    • CVX owns a 24.5% working interest in the QHD32-6 field, as well as a 16.2% each in the Bozhong 25-1 and Bozhong 19-4 fields; China's state-owned Cnooc (CEO -0.4%) holds the remaining stake in each field and is the operator.

  43. Chipotle up nearly 3% on report of strong March

    • via Notable Calls
    • M Science is out with a note saying March comps have accelerated markedly at Chipotle (CMG +2.7%). The team there thinks Q1 same-store sales growth will easily top expectations of 14.9%.

    Freeport, Teck upgraded at Deutsche Bank in improved commodities view

    • Freeport McMoRan (FCX +3%) and Teck Resources (TECK +2.7%) open higher after meriting upgrades from Deutsche Bank, part of a more positive outlook for industrial commodities that the firm says could boost free cash flow for select miners.
    • FCX is upgraded to Hold from Sell with a $16.50 price target, up from $12.50, and TECK is hiked to Buy from Hold with a $25 target, lifted by $1, as Deutsche Bank raises its price estimates for copper, zinc and iron ore due to stronger demand from the Chinese infrastructure and property market.
    • DB's Buy-rated industrial metal equities are TECK, SQM and VALE; the firm's Buy-rated precious metals stocks are NEMABXSLW and PAAS.

    Kate Spade final bid unlikely to be at premium – DealReporter

    • Final bids are coming next week, according to the report, with Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) and Coach (NYSE:COH) among those still interested.
    • KATE isn't likely to see a bid any higher than the current valuation, though that's still 40-50% more than the stock price in December ahead of reports the company was up for sale.
    • KATE -3.75% to $22.84.

    Bernstein raises Apple to $160 target

    Carnival +1% on William Blair upgrade

    • Carnival (NYSE:CCL) has been raised to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair.
    • The firm said the cruise line operator is in a position to beat consensus earnings estimates, citing benefits from strong pricing in Europe, and favorable trends will continue into 2018.
    • CCL +1% premarket

    Downgrading Intel To Sell On Stagnant Business Fundamentals 

    Discussing Transocean's Exit From The Jack-Up Segment 

    U.S. weighs broad sanctions on North Korea

    • The Trump administration is considering imposing sanctions aimed at cutting North Korea off from the global financial system as a response to its nuclear threats and missile tests.
    • The penalties would be part of a multi-pronged approach of increased economic and diplomatic pressure, especially on Chinese banks and firms that do the most business with Pyongyang.

    UK inflation jumps past BoE target

    • British inflation last month shot past the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time since the end of 2013, leaping by 2.3% in annual terms, and looks set to climb further due to the Brexit hit to the pound and rising oil prices.
    • The move came after Theresa May’s office announced on Monday that she'll trigger two years of Brexit discussions on March 29.

    Tesla to turn cash flow positive by next year, Deutsche Bank predicts

    • Deutsche Bank forecasts Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will finish 2017 with $1.8B in cash, providing "a significantly more comfortable liquidity cushion” in the company's cash position and ability to fund the manufacturing expansion of its Model 3.
    • The firm expects TSLA to turn cash flow positive in 2018, saying targeted Model S production of 90K-100K units per quarter and 25% gross margin guidance for 2018 corresponds to the company reaching breakeven.
    • DB models TSLA to produce 22K Model 3 units in 2017, with 20K of those occurring in Q4, and producing 250K Model 3s in 2018; over the long-term, its discounted cash flow model predicts that TSLA will sell nearly as many cars per year as BMW and Mercedes by 2030.
    • Incorporating the company's $1.4B capital raise (III), Deutsche Bank says it is adjusting its model and raising its target price for TSLA shares but only to $240 from $220, still shy of the current ~$260, and maintains its Hold rating.

    'Beauty' smash opening revised even higher, to $175M

    • The live-action Beauty was even more in beast mode than in early reports. Final weekend figures showed Beauty and the Beast (DIS +0.9%) earned $175M, $5M than the early estimates.
    • Those summer-style numbers are good enough for the best ever March debut, best debut for a PG-rated movie, and easily 2017's top opener. It gives Walt Disney six of the top seven opening weekends of all time.
    • Internationally, Beauty and the Beast added another $182.3M, meaning its worldwide take sits at $357M, pacing the film for more than $1B when its theatrical run eventually comes to an end.
    • The film has yet to open in France, Australia and Japan.
    • Far behind on the box-office charts were leaders from the past few weeks. Kong: Skull Island (TWX -0.3%) slotted in No. 2 with $27.8M ($109.1M cumulative in its two weeks); Logan (FOX -0.6%FOXA -0.6%) settled in third with $17.8M ($184.3M cumulative in its three weeks); and horror film Get Out (CMCSA +0.1%) was No. 4 with $13.4M ($133.3M cumulative in its four weeks of release).

    Apple bets big on augmented reality

    • Augmented reality is coming to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and it's the iPhone that will make it happen.
    • According to Bloomberg, the first fruits could be 'Matrix style' 3D photographs that users can move around – and eventually view through AR smartglasses.
    • Loop Ventures' Gene Munster said the iPhone 8 will lead to a "paradigm shift", setting the foundation for the next era of technological computation.

    Apple Music reportedly breaks 24-hour record for album streams with Drake's 'More Life'

    • The newly-released (March 18) album is asserted to have registered 89.9M single-day streams on Apple Music (NASDAQ:AAPL) compared to 61.3M on Spotify (Private:MUSIC) (nevertheless breaking records there as well) for the first day of availability on both services.
    • Though having premiered on Beats 1 radio, the release was distributed non-exclusively across all major streaming services, enabling, albeit factoring only one occasion, relatively balanced comparison indicating Apple's service comprising 20M subscribers (December 2016), versus Spotify's 100M active user (June 2016) and 50M (March 2017) subscriber counts, as a majorly well-positioned contender in the streaming business, one that uniquely maintains its ecosystem potential.

  44. Pharmboy/ Love Matt Johnson…Jools Holland is a regular on his albums and tours. Thanks 

  45. This article is full of jargon which goes way over my head which raises doubts on it's veracity but interesting take none the less.

    99% of Blockchain Startups Are Bullshit

  46. It includes all passengers flying from those airports…including U.S citizens

  47. Phil; any thoughts on taking TSLA or AMZN trade off after one day with nice profits?

  48. SGYP     "FU"

  49. SGYP…they need to set up a marketing/PR for their drug.  Never easy, and they will need deep pockets.  I am not worried.  This is not a $1B 'drug', but rather a nice indication for a biotech to make non-dilutive funding.  Give them time. We have the $5P STO for .42c.  Sell calls against the stock if you have it.

  50. The VIX is at 12 and we are all excited…

  51. Pharm/SGYP

    what's the drug and its market?

  52. IRWD's drug sales:  2016 LINZESS® (linaclotide) U.S. net sales of $626 million

    SGYP's drug is more potent and has fewer side effects.  IBD constipation Maya.  Those sales are not chump change.

  53. My April $2400/2415 SPX bearish call spread is showing a 52% gain in just 3 trading days.  Very tempting to take the quick $2,900 and call it a day.  I think I'll take half now, and wait and see on the other half.

  54. When in doubt…."sell 1/2"

  55. BTFD/Phil – Is it time yet!? Is this the "crash" we've been waiting for?
    Survey: Will the drop be gone by:  1) EOD  2) Tomorrow  3) Never. "This is the end, beautiful friend…"

  56. SGYP    2000 of the 2018 $5 puts trade for $1.30    ( $260,000 trade )

  57. Scott- gone? As in erased? it's just starting, I think we test the 50 day average tomorrow, 2325 on S&P, I'm sitting on 3x etf (SPXS) calls, what a beautiful day :)

  58. DOOM!!!! or maybe not

  59. advill/ I'd assume there is some, specific intelligence leading to this ban; and US agencies shared that intelligence with UK agencies

  60. Pharm/SGYP,

    Good to add position here. either direct stock or selling the puts if allowed.


  61. Phil – Last July, you and I made successful plays in SXCP.  Stock was around $14 and yielding 16% at the time.  The stock topped out at $21.95 in November.  I sold some stock around the $18 level (missed the top), but also kept a partial position.  Since then I have already received $1.78 in divds per share.  Stock is now back at $14 and still paying the 16%+ divd.  Think the stock, which resembles a huge falling knife, is worth another play.  Bought some stock at $13.96 and sold some Jan 18 15 puts for $3.1.

  62. Pat….biotechs and pharma are in the dog house….so do so with caution, but SGYP long term IMHO should be fine.

  63. $DJI volume not too exciting. only half of Friday. Would want to see this ramp up by end of day to feel like more to come..

  64. In terms of the vote I am going with 3.  I think this may be armageddon.  The market is overvalued and two idiots with nuclear weapons and enormous egos are in a standoff.  This can't go well

  65. 4054 you think there are only two idiots with nukes you are very optimistic!

    I do think the market seems like it want to puke

  66. Albo – QUIK – My spider sense says If nobody buys them, or sales do not improve, or they don't get a cash infusion from elsewhere, this move keeps the doors open that much longer.

  67. SPX 2340 will be support.  I know TA does not work…but hey, that's my target for this one.

  68. SPX/Pharm – I see same. S2 support on pivot, and 40dma, and round 10 number..

  69. SPX/Phil - what's your math for 5% rule on them?

  70. Blockchain/Pstas – I agree, so many scams in that universe.  

    Devices/Advill – Yes, that's actually true!  We are like some tin-pot dictatorship issuing silly edicts now. 

    Trades/Options – I had 80% faith before, 95% now.  TSLA with a nice $10 drop and AMZN -$14 to $842.  As we went for April, the positions are great with AMZN calls up $6 ($1,200) and the spread up $3 ($900) so +$2,100 is already almost 100% but that's "on track" for a spread that should be up 280% at $850 or less.  On TSLA,  the April calls are up $5 ($1,500) and that's worth considering as it's more than 1/2 already.  The spread is only +$3 ($1,500) so + $3,000 there is up 75% in a day – really good but I can't think of any reason they won't make double each and I can't think of another 100% play we can better put our money into.

    Of course, SGYP makes a strong case for taking early profits when you get them!  

    SGYP/Stock – Actually, if you have the OOP play, we have long 2019 $3.50 calls and short 2018 $7 calls so we don't want SGYP to be too high into Jan.  We sold the Jan $4 puts but we can roll those but, if all goes well, we'll get another put and call sale out of this spread before we cash in.  As Pharm notes, this is now a drug roll-out, not development – it will take a long time to unfold.

    Half/Palotay – Wise call in this crazy market.  

    Oh, someone asked earlier, I do still have 2 long /NGV7s from $3.17 ages ago.  Forgot about those. 

    Image result for are we there yet animated gifDip/Scott – It's the biggest one we've had all year.  Not quite ready to hit the BUYBUYBUY button just yet but check out the old Watch List and start planning.  ESRX, GILD, JNS, LB, M, PBI, SUN, SVU, TASR, TGT and XOM all down in the range – about half.

    SXCP/Albo – Well it's a similar logic as we do expect some sort of infrastructure deal that SHOULD boost demand for US steel but they also have a terminal in Louisiana and that could suffer from trade wars.  

    Also, weren't they going to be bought by SXC?  That was in Nov so I guess that deal fell apart?

    SunCoke Energy Simplification Transaction – M&A Call Presentation

    An Analysis Of The Proposed Purchase Of SunCoke Energy Partners By SunCoke Energy Inc.

    SunCoke -7% as IRS excludes cokemaking as qualifying income activity

    That's a few things I'd want to get cleared up before making a big play but your put sale is sensible to put a toe in the water.

    Standoff/4054 – Rosie O'Donell has nuclear weapons?  

    Speaking of TA:

    2,380 to 2,340 is 1.7% and we expect 8-point bounce to 2,348 (check) and 2,356 and notice 2,356, not 55 is a good line.

    Have to call this 21,000 – even though we didn't make it and call the fall 420, even though it didn't and we have 20,580 with 85-point bounces to 20,666 (because who doesn't like Satan?) and 20,750 will be the strong bounce line.

    5,440 or fight is very appropriate as that's how Polk screwed the Mexicans out of California in the first place.  On the Nasdaq, it's also the northern limit of expansion and 100 points is 1.8% so I'm going to say we should look at the lines of a 2.5% correction, which would be way down at 5,304 so let's pretend we tested 5,300 for a 140-point drop and call it 30-point bounces to 5,330 (weak) and 5,370 (strong).  If my theory is right, 5,370 will be rejected and we will then fall back to test the 5,300 line (or at least 5,304).  Failing that will indicate ALL the indexes should be testing 2.5% drops.

    I'm going to have to call RUT 1,400 and 1,350 means 10-point bounces to 1,360 and 1,370 and 1,365 happens to be the -2.5% line on the RUT so failing that indicates the Nas may soon be joining us (followed by Dow and SPX too). 

  71. Oops:

  72. this thing feels like a hog in a bog the i am betting that the close is going to be dreadful

  73. Phil – Abiogenic/BDC – Just because I like the theory doesn't mean it's right – it's just fun and it really drives oil guys nuts when you talk about it.  It's the kind of thing that takes thousands of years to prove – we've only been drilling for 100. 

    Now that's common sense. I usually torment the biogenic crowd with this one.  In 2014, NASA photographs proved methane lakes exist on Saturn’s moon, Titan.  Lomosonov (1757) or his biogenic acolytes might suppose those lakes full of hydrocarbons where created by the long dead fossil life and organic matter buried on Titan.  Proof of life? Alrighty then, thats a nice story, now get me a sandwich. 

    The difference between Abiogenic and Biogenic is basically, Abiogenic source rock does not have to have been on the surface at some point. It's probably a combination of many different theories, none of which are proven.  Other than to further the price agenda, I just don't understand the pissing match.

    Bottom line, regardless of where or how the hydrocarbons were generated they can only be produced from the fields they accumulated in. Thus the results oriented objective was always to find where the hydrocarbons  ACCUMULATED and not where or how they were GENERATED.  Since nobodies paycheck was based upon the latter, nobody really gave or gives a fuck. Better to keep circulating the finite supply myth. Par for the course, greed is good, now get in the car and Out.

  74.  Phil – do you prefer NDX over COMP for a Nasdaq measure?

  75. Angel – perhaps.. I have some orders in to cover/close down at lows of the day and nobody biting (yet). Not feeling any urgency..

  76. For those apostates in the room, SPY just completed a H & S intraday btm (2:20 – 3:09 PM), with neckline breech >234.57 with target of 235.10. If it doesn't breech implication is, of course, south. Just saying.

  77. LMAO!  "It's quite obvious today is the beginning of the market peak I've been pounding the table on since 2012." --@awealthofcs

  78. this usually gives us several weeks of upside so far its not working if it fails its not pretty

  79. Hi Phil, would you consider entering SONC again now it has come back under $23? Thanks

  80. sorry i tried to post of chart of the AAII percent bears

  81. Oil – crude inventories today..? sure to be the good news the markets need, right?

  82. hey I got one of my orders filled!

  83. Just look at those bold, beautiful, big red candles!

  84. Wheeee! Dive! Dive! Seems like I've been waiting forever, how sweet it is

  85. Good summary Naybob.  You're right, not much research past "let's put a dinosaur on the logo".

    Nasdaq/Scott – I think COMP is more realistic as it's the whole thing but, either way, AAPL has too much weight.  The Futures track the 100 though, so that's the one I look at. 

    SPY/8800 – More to the point, we're forming those Ms and the middle is breaking – that was obviously likely to happen since last week.  

    Peak/Scott – I feel his pain!  

    SONC/DM – I will when the market stops collapsing.  SONC just got a negative call as the whole sector is having a bad Q.  They'll have to ride it out and come through in the summer to shake off the doubters.  

    Bebe Stores -25% said to close stores, hoping to stave off bankruptcy

    • Bebe Stores (BEBE -25.3%) sinks in reaction to a Bloomberg report that the company is planning to shut its brick and mortar stores and seek a turnaround as an online brand.
    • Bebe is trying to close the locations without filing for bankruptcy, but Chapter 11 may be required if enough landlords are not willing to negotiate, according to the report.
    • Bebe has no significant debt, unlike many retailers, but the company has lost ~$200M over the past four years, and negotiating with landlords to get out of leases may prove difficult.

    Retailers -2% as Brady promises border tax

    • "My sense is that border adjustability has become a given," says Kevin Brady, head of the House's Ways & Means Committee, and thus kind of powerful when it comes to writing tax laws.
    • That doesn't sound good for retailers, says Peter Boockvar. The good news, though, is a Senate that appears to be standing in the way of the border tax plans of the president and the House.
    • Retailers (XRT -2%) are nevertheless about doubling the S&P 500's decline today, with Gap (GPS -4.3%) joining Macy's and Kohl's in being particularly hard hit.

    Chart/Angel – You can post a link, just not a whole chart.

    Inventories/Scott – API tonight, EIA tomorrow.  

    Canadian Solar not seeing major Trump impact on U.S. solar sales

    • Canadian Solar (CSIQ -9.1%) CEO and President Shawn Qu says Pres. Trump’s pro-coal and pro-fossil fuel policies have not hurt sales of the company's solar cells in the U.S., but the U.S. Department of Commerce dealt a significant setback with the preliminary release of revised anti-dumping tariffs.
    • CSIQ says it is strongly contesting the early results of the DoC's revised anti-dumping and other tariffs on Chinese-manufactured solar panels, which Qu says are “hugely different from the past rates imposed on the company.”
    • “We believe that technology is what set the winners apart from the losses in this run of the industry cycle,” Qu said in today's earnings conference call, adding that CSIQ plans to raise its solar cell manufacturing capacity even as competitors cut back.
    • CSIQ's revenues, profits and margins all have declined over the past year due to “the industry-wide declines in average selling price that have been persistent all year," although the company set records for solar module shipments in Q4 and FY 2016, and Qu says demand for its products remains firm.

  86. Market – Pretty easy binary trade.  IF the healthbill passes this week, then the market rallies on the perception that the Trump WH can get it done, and more importantly, tax reform done in a short period of time.  IF the healthcare bill fails, then the market falls further, maybe 10% total.  Either way, I am looking to enter positions in XLF on the pullback.  Looser regulations, blah blah blah will help the sector and now it has come off the highs nicely.

  87. BDC – SVXY on its way to $45! You can almost already touch that $1 bill…

  88. :-)

  89. StJ – how do I spell correction?

    Hint: SKXY!

    :P :P :P

  90. oops: bad speller! SVXY!

  91. Phil / TGT,

    What's your price point where it becomes a screaming buy based on your valuation?  Falling hard with major support around $47 and absolute bottom at $26.  $26 is a no-brainer buy, but looking for the potential in between range.  TIA.

  92. Phil any thoughts about oil into inventories? Also just curious about how to apply 5%rule from here. Got the bounces earlier, but how does it line up now into a new day? Do we expect this move down to extend based on your rules or do we think we get a bounce now? Still not sure how it works exactly so looking for your further explanation please. 

  93. From the SA report.

    ~~"Additionally, after the deal prices, which is scheduled for Wednesday, March 22nd, I believe several new investors to QuickLogic via the deal are likely to begin building larger positions in the open market. As such, I recommend using near-term weakness to accumulate QUIK shares and I continue to believe QUIK shares are on a trajectory to move higher as 2017 unfolds and I reiterate my $4 stock price target."

  94. SVXY is interesting to look at though because it essentially shorts short-term VIX futures as it's investing mechanism. These futures have premium. So in that way these instruments "bleed upward" unlike VXX and others that buy premium. That might be why they do so well over time – they are essentially collecting premium! 

  95. pstas – a VC describing almost perfectly why his industry is dying. I wonder if he realizes that, though?

  96. TDG – @#$%! I'll bet "Ruh-Ro" Khanna made a bundle on his 'concern.';

  97. HANJ remember the health bill passing the house leaves the senate where sentate leaders have described it as DOA

  98. If anyone wants a read on the G20 – Free Trade issue .  ~~Check out

  99. Phil , If you liked the Maudlin Part 1 article on Aimless Men… I have a great title for Part 2




  100. angel/thanks  Yes, but IF it passes the house, it will be a big deal (too big of a deal) to the markets.  Plus, Trump carries (too) much about the stock market.  He is the Trump put, until he isn't.

  101. Phil,  Here is a question. Seat belts fastened: what do you think of UVXY here? Thanks. Strether

  102. Hanj – I agree with Angel though, this bill will not clear the Senate so it will be back to square one very quickly. I am not sure that it has a lot of staying power in the market if any. And then how much does it really help the economy – most likely is very damaging especially to companies who rely on consumers – remember, people are supposed to give up their iPhones to pay for their healthcare. If the bill pass, AAPL should take a dive no? And where does the money goes – I give you 2 guesses:

  103. WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House is instructing Cabinet heads and agency officials not to elaborate on President Donald Trump’s proposed budget cuts beyond what was in a relatively brief submission, a move Democrats decried as a gag order.<p>Budget Director Mick Mulvaney wrote in a memo late last …

  104. AmeriCorps helps organize millions of volunteers.<p>In the 23 years of AmeriCorps’ history, more than one million people have served in its ranks …

  105. Jesus’s tomb unveiled after $4m restoration

    Wednesday’s ceremony will mark completion of nine-month renovation of most sacred monument in Christianity<p>The restored tomb in which Jesus’s body is believed to have been interred after his crucifixion will be officially unveiled at a ceremony at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem’s Old …

  106. 8 Parcel Bombs Are Found in Greece

    ATHENS — Greek counterterrorism officers have uncovered eight parcel bombs resembling those sent last week to the German finance minister in Berlin and to the Paris offices of the International Monetary Fund, a police official said on Tuesday.<p>The devices were discovered on Monday during a search of …

  107. Nike Chief Executive Mark Parker said the U.S. retail landscape is “not in a steady state” as consumers spend more online and make fewer visits to …

  108. The Congressional Budget Office recently said that around 24 million fewer Americans would have health insurance in 2026 under the Republican repeal plan than if the current law stayed in place.<p>That loss was bigger than most experts anticipated, and led to a round of predictable laments from …

  109. Kellyanne Conway has faced ridicule on social media for a tweet she posted five months ago that poked fun at Hillary Clinton’s email saga.<p>The senior adviser to Donald Trump took a swipe at the Democratic presidential nominee on Twitter shortly before the election when James Comey, the FBI director, …

  110. Back in December, package-delivery giant <b>FedEx</b> (NYSE: FDX) reported a rare earnings miss for the second quarter of its 2017 fiscal year. On Tuesday afternoon, the company reported an even bigger earnings miss for the third quarter.<p>To some extent, FedEx’s recent issues can be attributed to temporary …

  111. LONDON (Reuters) – World stocks are their most expensive in 17 years, but bond yields will need to be much higher than they are currently to trigger an equity bear market, a monthly fund manager survey showed on Tuesday.<p>Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s (BAML) poll of investors managing $592 billion …

  112. The asset-class quilt is my favorite performance chart because it illustrates how difficult it is to predict annual winners and losers.<p>There’s little rhyme or reason for how these things play out from year to year, so it provides a good reminder for investors to understand that any single year’s …

  113. AP Radio AP Radio News:<p>Latest News<p>NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are on track for their biggest loss this year as banks tumble and industrial companies such as transportation stocks take large losses. Small-company stocks are falling more than the rest of the market.<p>KEEPING SCORE: The Standard & …

  114. WASHINGTON (AP) — Making the case for a Republican repeal and replacement of his predecessor’s health care law, President Donald Trump reached for a dire-sounding argument that’s unsupported by the data.<p>”Many of our best and brightest are leaving the medical profession entirely because of …

  115. Walmart’s recent change to free two-day shipping for online orders, no membership required, is the latest in a series of moves the company has made to fight Amazon and grow its e-commerce business. Last year, it purchased and installed Jet’s founder, Marc Lore, as head of its e-commerce …

  116. SAN FRANCISCO — In a bid to end a boycott of Google and YouTube by major advertisers in the U.K., Google says it will pull online ads from controversial content, give brands more control over where their ads appear and will deploy more people to enforce its ad policies.<p>And, amid charges it has not …

  117. We know innovation drives corporate growth. As Strategy& reported in its 2015 survey of 1,757 executives, “innovation today is a key driver of organic growth for all companies — regardless of sector or geography.” According to that report, the top 1,000 R&D spenders invested $680 billion in R&D …

  118. The presidential election in November sent U.S. investors into a bullish frenzy, but signs are mounting that the optimism has peaked.<p>Some widely watched measures of investor sentiment and positioning have been flattening out or retreating recently, suggesting that the stock market euphoria that …

  119. What a long day!  Just got back from NYC talking to China about Brazil.  Very global evening.  

    API shows 4.5Mb build in oil but Gasoline down 4.9Mb and Distillates down 883,000 so small net draw on the whole but still no signs of real demand.  

    No bounce in the Futures and it looks like we follow through to those -2.5% lines, as expected.  

    TGT/Jeddah – $70Bn in sales and $3Bn in profits and the market cap at $53.50 is less than $30Bn for a p/e of 10.  They are pulling in $4 per share though, so call the p/e 12.5 but that means it's highly unlikely to fall more than 20% from here ($43) and even that would be silly.  Now, let's say it's a rolling disaster and profits drop 10% a year – they still make $2Bn 3 years from now and even a little enthusiasm could justify a 15 p/e with a 30Bn cap so no, I don't see TGT even staying below $50 for long and it's a huge buy down here.  

    Oil/Craigs – I think today was actually the last trading day for April (/CLJ7) and it finished right at $47.50, which is where we predicted it would be a month ago.  We also predicted that this would be our last month shorting and now we want to go long and the May contract is right at the $48 line and May is the start of Summer Driving Season so not much more to explain than that.  

    Notice how last March we bottomed out and then off to the races into June.  

    Unfortunately, the fundamentals are weak and so is the Dollar so hard to get a good catalyst so no calls from me (but we already have a July USO long spread) – I only like to play things that are obvious – forcing trades is how you go broke.

    UVXY/Streth – Please, I don't like VIX so I ultra-don't like UVXY.  You might get lucky but, clearly, the vast majority of the people don't:

    Notice 2015 August – that's the dream.  The rest of the chart is the reality.  I also have some lottery tickets you can buy!

    Of course, if you want to make a triple betting the market will fall sharply and volatility spikes – a simple TZA spread will do that with a lot less risk than UVXY.

    SHLD/Pstas – The fact that they only just realized that gives me substantial doubt about their future as well!  

    Tax savings/StJ – What a total joke.  

  120. From Tuesday on, passengers traveling to the U.S. from 10 airports in eight Muslim-majority countries will not be allowed to have iPads, laptops or any communications device larger than a smartphone in the cabin of the plane. If you are traveling from Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi …

  121. A President’s Credibility

    If President Trump announces that North Korea launched a missile that landed within 100 miles of Hawaii, would most Americans believe him? Would the rest of the world? We’re not sure, which speaks to the damage that Mr. Trump is doing to his Presidency with his seemingly endless stream of …

  122. DONGGUAN, China—Glen Lin is struggling to keep his shoe company competitive on the world’s factory floor in southern China. Wages are shooting up 15% each year. Taxes are high. Shipping is exorbitant, and slow.<p>So, as fast as he can he’s automating production, while planning an escape to his largest …

  123. Lahren and her boss Glenn Beck may want to rethink past statements on liberals and free speech<p>Tomi Lahren made a controversial statement last week when she told “The View” that she was pro-choice and slapped the hypocrite label on small-government conservatives who “think the government should …

  124. The German bank that loaned $300m (£260m) to Donald Trump played a prominent role in a money laundering scandal run by Russian criminals with ties to the Kremlin, the Guardian can reveal.<p>Deutsche Bank is one of dozens of western financial institutions that processed at least $20bn – and possibly …

  125. If judges aren’t political, why isn’t Merrick Garland a justice?CREDIT: AP Photo/Pablo Martinez MonsivaisJudges, if you believe Trump Supreme Court …

  126. (Reuters) – The run-up in U.S. real estate prices could potentially amplify any future economic downturn, a Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday, urging regulators globally to consider tools beyond interest rates that could help cool the sector.<p>A sharp downturn in U.S. residential and …

  127. India and China, the world’s two most populous countries, have long had a competitive relationship and have emerged as major economic powers. But in …

  128. <i>If Americans could only feel the pain of paying taxes, counting out the cash to the tax collector each and every paycheck, instead of the invisible</i> …

  129. For nearly 20 years, Adam Lerrick, a conservative economist, has been a vocal scold of global organizations like the International Monetary Fund, arguing that such institutions burn through taxpayer money and foster an insular culture of elitism, bailouts and scant accountability.<p>Now, Mr. Lerrick, …

  130. The world’s hunger for new coal power plants has abruptly and unexpectedly slumped, improving the chance of averting the most dangerous levels of …

  131. Gates has been issuing thinly veiled criticisms of the Trumpian approach for months.<p>Two American billionaires with extremely divergent worldviews are engaging in a quiet war of rhetoric about global health and development.<p>One is Bill Gates; the other is Donald Trump.<p>On Monday, Gates is scheduled to …

  132. Everyone is supposedly feeling good in the U.S.<p>Consumers are comfortable. Confidence among chief executives is high. Unemployment rates are down, and …

  133. | SINGAPORE<p>Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as rising crude stocks in the United States underscored an ongoing global fuel supply overhang despite an OPEC-led effort to cut output.<p>Prices for front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil, were at $50.92 per barrel at 0051 GMT, …

  134. Though Brazil has generated more than its share of scandal and corruption allegations recently, a new probe into sales of tainted meat there has sent …

  135. Like her husband and Trump’s son-in-law, Ivanka’s new White House role raises serious ethical questions<p>President Donald Trump, who has already appointed senior advisers as “commissars” to make sure his cabinet officers are sufficiently loyal to him, will now have his daughter Ivanka Trump as his …

  136. “You have gone to great lengths to disagree with your colleagues,” one senator told Gorsuch.<p>The confirmation hearing of Judge Neil Gorsuch began on Monday. After Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., explained she was disappointed that President Obama’s choice for the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland, was …

  137. China’s bankers and corporate leaders are more confident in the economy than any time since 2014, a central bank survey shows.<p>A gauge of banker …

  138. <i>If Americans could only feel the pain of paying taxes, counting out the cash to the tax collector each and every paycheck, instead of the invisible</i> …

  139. RICHMOND, Va. (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that if the economic data holds up she supports the U.S. central bank taking steps that would begin to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.<p>”In my view, if economic conditions evolve as I …

  140. “I have nothing to do with Russia,” Donald Trump bellowed to thousands of frenzied supporters at a Tampa, Florida rally last October. The truth, it seems, is a bit more complicated.<p>In an exclusive interview with FORBES, Emin Agalarov—a Russian pop singer, real estate mogul and son of one of the …

  141. Phil – are you interested in the Defense sector as global tensions rise? NOC, RTN, LMT, GD

  142. The US Gulf Coast fuel oil market on Tuesday saw its outright price and discount to the front-month hit lows on evaporating demand.<p>USGC HSFO was …

  143. Dong Ximiao was buying a meal at KFC in Hangzhou on a recent Sunday and pulled out his phone to pay, like everyone does in China, when the cashier …

  144. Chances are, if you live in the U.S., you feel worse today than you did 10 years ago. Don’t worry, it’s not you. This is a national problem: …

  145. If you told someone ten years ago that recreational cannabis would be legal in several American states, they’d think you were smoking something. …

  146. It’s hard out there for retailers — and it doesn’t look like they’ll be catching a break anytime soon.<p>Researchers from Credit Suisse Group AG …

  147. A majority of U.S. adults say stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost, while roughly a third say such regulations cost too …

  148. Reality is getting complicated. Don’t like the world around you? Today’s technology lets you pick a different one.<p>Virtual reality was everywhere at …

  149. The House Speaker again puts ideology ahead of his professed concern for fiscal discipline.<p>Last year, President Obama’s Department of Labor issued a …

  150. Support for 2010 health care law reaches new high

    With congressional Republicans discussing proposals to replace the Affordable Care Act, public support for the 2010 health care law has reached its …

  151. Here’s how Tesla tripled its earnings in China

    Earlier this month, Tesla Inc reported that its revenues in China topped $1 billion in 2016, more than triple the revenues it generated there in 2015. The Chinese market was only second to the U.S. in terms of revenue generation for Tesla last year.<p>The electric carmaker is not breaking down …

  152. “I had a career in identifying absurdity. And I know it when I see it.”<p>Senator Al Franken (D-MN), as he said himself during Neil Gorsuch’s …

  153. A Republican Florida county court official was placed on administrative leave Monday after making death threats against a state attorney who said she …

  154. Phil – /CL.  So for right now, you aren't saying go long the /CL May contract, correct?  

    I don't have a USO spread in my port.  

    What do you think about, selling the July 10's for 0.65, and buying the July 10/12 bull call for 0.66, for net even on the spread?  

  155. <i>What will replace the current system after it self-destructs? That’s the question.</i><p><b>You know those disclosures on your credit card statements?</b> That it …

  156. Pharm/SGYP


    I have been using Linzess for a while and in fact was involved in one of their phase 3 studies.

    Did not realize SGYP  was the company.

  157. Not for everyone, perhaps, but I'll put it out here… I call it "Applied Economics 101 with Uncle Martin (Armstrong)"
    The Solution:

    (Hey, I figure with regular Salon posts, "anything goes!") :-)

  158. Huh. Anti-Trump Schiff supports Airplane Electronics ban:

  159. Phil / SI, GC;

    Still strong, and waiting a softer price  to save some shorts, what positions  do you have right now? 

  160. Dollar testing lows that date back to election day.  If dollar can't hold 99.50, bad sign for Trump agenda and the market. Fear that USA no longer the "safe haven" it was thought to be resulting in money being pulled from our markets?

  161. Or the market really has no clothes and is grossly over valued. 

  162. Relax, Donald's in charge… it's just business, and he's an expert! Just ask him, he'll tell you. Nobody's talking about the debt ceiling, is it even an issue? Donald loves debt! Why all we need to do is refuse to pay the bills we don't have money for, file for bankruptcy and wipe it all out! So long debt, now let's get busy building that wall. Reserve currency? So what? Losers, that's what you get for loaning the Donald mo' money, what did you expect? It's gonna be a great wall, he's a builder you know, a beautiful wall and Mexico is gonna pay for it. Healthcare, sheesh, give 'em an asprin but hey, he's no doctor so don't call him in the morning, he's busy planning the invasion of North Korea… shhh, wasn't supposed to say that, forget you heard that, it's a secret, just know that Donald is in charge and everything is gonna be all right.

  163. Good morning!  

    Futures down a bit but not too much damage, Europe recovering into lunch.

    Defense/Latch – We have RTN, LMT and BA – that's about as interested as I get but sure, a 10% bump in military spending can't be bad – and maybe the Administration will make up some BS and get us into a new war.  Thank goodness we could never imagine that happening, right? 

    /CL/Burr – Well now we're down to $47.50 and I'm getting interested.  The big negative is the Dollar is at 99.66 and I don't see it getting weaker and, if it pops up, despite anything else going on, it will push oil down a bit.  So, ideally, I'd like to see the Dollar go up before I bet oil long.  I don't see anything going on that makes betting urgent so I'm just not playing it at all.  On USO, if you mean selling the $10 puts – yes, I like that spread.

    Electronics/Scott – Ban makes no sense other than economic attack on Muslims.  If they can still put the electronics into regular luggage, then what's the difference?  Frankly, any idiot can take out a plane with a rocket launcher if they are so motivated (or even a high-powered gun) but the truth is there just aren't that many people in the World who would actually do such a thing (thank God) and yes, a few in a Billion sick individuals would and the Internet makes it possible for them to find each other and gather together and that's a threat but it's nothing compared to the threat of overreacting to the situation and pitting people against each other and giving right-wing nut jobs an excuse to take over our government and run our nation, controlling our people through fear and prejudice – THAT'S the danger to our country and the World.

    /SI/Advill – I'm out of Futures.  Just SLW, which is still cheap.  

    Very reassuring Mkucs.

  164. See, these are the times where Phil is much more patient with futures entries than the rest of us. I'm forcing myself to sit on my hands until things settle down, things are starting to get interesting but it's also when I tend to guess too much or overreach and start trying to predict the next move. Yesterday was good, today I'm planning on waiting and watching. 

  165. Just thought I'd share since I keep making the same mistakes. 

  166. Very true Jeff – took me a long time to realize that the best way to improve my returns was simply not to play unless I had a strong probability of being right.  It's like when you go to the track and there are no good horses but you pick one anyway because it's boring otherwise.  Well, this isn't track money (for most of us) and this shouldn't be gambling!