Courtesy of Mish.
As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed GDFPNow model for the second-quarter GDP stood at 3.4%. In contrast, the FRBNY Nowcast report was 2.2%.
This is yet another large gap, albeit smaller than the ones we saw for the first quarter. What’s more interesting is some of the recent gyrations.
What’s more interesting is that in some of the recent gyrations, on the same data, the models went opposite directions.
GDPNow Estimate June 2
Nowcast Estimate June 2
The spread has narrowed quite a bit. But what caught my eyes is the way it happened.
GDPNow Detail




