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Too High Tuesday – S&P 500 Most Overbought in 22 Years

80% overbought.

We weren't even 80% overbought in 1999.  The high on the RSI Index was hit back in early 1997 and, bulls take note – we kept going higher for 2 more years after that – so this doesn't mean it's the end – it just means this is crazy.  This is about the point where Alan Greenspan called the market "irrationally exuberant" (Dec 5th, 1996) saying:

Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?

Image result for irrational exuberance chartThe Dow had just passed 5,000 at the time and, two years later, it was at 11,700 – up 134% AFTER the Fed Chairman said people were nuts for buying stocks.  I don't know for sure if we were right to go to CASH!!! last week but it's not a permanent decision – it's simply something we're doing into the holidays and likely to remain until we see the Q4 earnings and 2018 guidance in January.  THEN we will decide which stocks we want to ride for the next 100% of the market rally – if such a thing is coming.  

As you can see from the chart, the Dow move was nothing compared to the Nasdaq, which more than tripled after his call.  We just saw BitCoin more than double after JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon called it a scam and our GreenCoins (GRE) doubled yesterday and today they are up another 20% – that's a scam we can all enjoy!  

We're waiting on a Fed decision tomorrow and they are expected to tighten and this morning's November PPI numbers were hotter than expected, at 0.4% with even Core PPI up 0.3% – so those are good reasons to expect the Fed will be tapping on the brakes tomorrow but Greenspan raised rates all the way from 5.5% to 6.5% before the market pulled back (collapsed, actually) and we're not even at 1.5% now.  Is it the 1% rise or the 6.5% that kills the market?  That we won't know until we cross that barrier, but it will be fun finding out!   

Image result for greenspan rate hikes

Oddly enough, we don't get CPI until tomorrow morning, but still ahead of the Fed Rate Decision.  According to the Wall Street Journal, comparison shopping with smart phones by consumers has led to an era of price competition that is keeping inflation at record lows.  Economists attribute feeble inflation across developed economies to several causes, including aging populations, slow productivity growth and globalization, which have reined in the ability of companies to raise prices and wages. With consumer spending accounting for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the explosion in E-commerce has been added to the list.  

Image result for online shopping growth 2017Online shopping accounted for 9.1% of U.S. retail spending in the third quarter, according to the Census Bureau, up from 3.6% in the same quarter of 2008.  Consumer prices for many of those goods fell in the year to October: Books were down 2.7%; sporting goods fell 1.9%; televisions dropped 10.3%; toys declined 8%. The consumer-price index for commodities, excluding food and energy, dropped 1% over that time.  By contrast, the annual rate of inflation for services hasn’t dipped below 2% in six years, largely driven by the rising costs of rent, health care and education. 

So, looking to establish new positions going forward, we're going to concentrate on businesses that aren't likely to be low-balled by consumers.  We've also picked up some Retailers though, and will do so again as, though the growth of on-line retail is impressive, it's still less than 10% of our $4Tn Retail Sector – room for more than one business to do well in that space.  

In fact, our Stock of the Year for 2018 is Hanes Brand (HBI) but, before that, our top pick was L Brands (LB), the owner of Victoria's Secret and they happen to be in the only portfolio we have left, which is our Money Talk Portfolio, which we keep for the folks at BNN.  These are picks I make on that TV show and, since I haven't been on since September – we haven't been able to tell the viewers to go to cash.  That's OK though, as the portfolio is solid and I'll be on on Jan 17th to give them an update – they'll simply have missed all the fun of cashing out!  

  • I'm certainly not worried about Apple (AAPL), which is a 3-time Stock of the Year champion.  Though the spread is already up $7,400 (113%) at $13,500 after just 3 months, the goal is to get back $30,000 so this humble trade is still good for another $16,500 (122%) of additional gains if AAPL is good enough to hold $165 for the year.  
  • IMAX should do very well this month with Star Wars out on Friday so the force should be strong for Q4 earnings but our Max return on this one is $8,000 and it's already at net $6,050 (up 384%), so that one we're likely to call for cashing in on Jan 17th.
  • LB, as I said, was going to be our Stock of the Year for 2018 but it took off too fast for our official call but, fortunately, not before we grabbed it in all our Member Portfolios, including our Money Talk Portfolio on the 6th.  We offically pick our Trade of the Year around Thanksgiving and it was far too late to chase LB, so we switched to HBI, which has also already jump 10%.  This spread maxes out at $30,000 and is already netting $20,500 – up $17,100 (502%) from our net $3,400 cash entry in 90 days!   Still it's good for another 50% into the end of 2018 but, yawn, we may cash it in and look for more exciting opportunities.  

  • WPM was our Trade of the Year for 2017 and, depsite the recent pullback, we're still way ahead on the trade at net $11,787 from our humble net $2,000 cash entry so up $9,787 (489%) is yet another Stock of the Year success story but this spread pays $25,000 at $22 in Jan 2019 and that's another $13,213 (112%) more to be made from here – so no reason to get out of that one! 

Our other portfolios at PhilStockWorld had similar success, as well as our Options Opportunity Portfolio over at Seeking Alpha and they are all being reset to zero so we can start from scratch again on January 2nd – it's going to be a great time to join us and learn the art of Options Trading and Portfolio Building in 2018.

Those were, except for WPM, trades that we identified just 3 months ago – long after the rally was well on it's way.  That's why we're not at all worried about missing anything by going to CASH!!!  We will always find something to trade, especially during earnings season because we are Fundamental Investors and the market always manages to misprice things.  Even this morning, Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) is trading down around $6.40, which is beyond ridiculous and I just reiterated a bullish call on them with an aggressive spread in our Live Member Chat Room.  

Another one that's still cheap is the Natural Gas ETF (UNG), which I just sent out a Top Trade Alert on at $5.60.

So, PLENTY of things to buy with our CASH!!! including gifts for our families and time to visit them over the holidays.  The markets will still be here when we get back.  Meanwhile, enjoy the season!  


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  1. Good Morning!

    TEVA working with Evercore on debt options (extending terms etc).

  2. seer-- i don't think that is unexpected or necessarily negative. Isn't it part of their reorg plan?

  3. is it possible to trade bitcoin on TOS yet?  what symbol? thanks in advance.

  4. Good Morning.

  5. Jabo-not unexpected, but could be deemed a distressed exchange and have a negative impact on the IG rating.  There always seems to be a negative impact on the stock when a company is downgraded below IG despite the clear warnings ahead of time.  Some of that is hedging, but the reaction seems in excess of the likely hedging.  Doesn't change the premise here though.

  6. GrassHopper67 
    December 11th, 2017 at 10:32 pm | PermalinkTweet thisIgnore this user

    Phil, Do you foresee a rate hike this week driving down metals?

  7. seer— i would think that TEVA is doing this in order to remain IG?

  8. Jabo-they need to improve metrics within an certain period of time and extending maturity dates would violate the requirement.  They are already on negative outlook due to an expectation that debt reduction would take longer than anticipated.  

  9. FTR – reminder – 12/14 is ex div date

  10. TSLA wow!

  11. These TSLA trucks are flying off the virtual shelves! Pepsi virtually orders another virtual 100… 

  12. Good morning!  

    No automatic alt text available.

    Happy Hanukkah!  

    TEVA/Seer – Jury still out it seems.

    Big Chart – Rut held that 50 dma in the end, now they are looking to make new highs and break the double top.

    BitCoin/Lunar – /XBT, margin requirement is $8,200 and it trades in 1 coin lots.  

    Meanwhile, /SI, /KCH8 and /NGV8 are all diving as the Dollar drives back to 94 as people are sure the Fed will tighten tomorrow thanks to that PPI report.

    I still like all of them but ouch!  

    Hike/Jabob – Happening now. 

    FTR/Batman – They can drop 0.60 now and we're still in good shape.

    TSLA – Yes, lots of reservations for trucks is causing excitement though they won't be delivered for a couple of years – if ever.  Still, lots of name companies jumping in. 

  13. Phil,  Thoughts on SNY? Sanofi -  Good div yield of 3.62%, clocks ~1.2-1.3 euros in earnings per quarter. Trading at a PE of 10 ish.   Recently some loss of revenue due to decline in its diabetic control biz.  But new revenue streams in immunology and vaccines. 

    Only issue is that options go only till June 2018.  

  14. learner/ SNY  note that you only get the dividend once a year

  15. Noted Stockbern,… thanks!

  16. Quiet day it seems!

  17. SNY/Learner – P/E is not as low as it seems.  They make about $5Bn on a $110Bn market cap, not sure where people get 10 but, to me, that's 20.   Q3 was a miss and guidance is flat, so no growth and, if anything, they seem to be in steady decline but I don't know their pipeline going forward.  Still, if you have reason to like them, it's not like they are a rip-off at $44 – just not thrilling.  The dividend is $1.64 and you can sell June $42 puts for $2.10 so 125% of the dividend in 6 months without all that messy owning the stock and then your worst case is owning them at net $39.90, which is a 10% discount from here.   That's how I'd start.  If you feel they are stronger than that, you can always add a bull call spread or buy the stock and cover as it breaks over $45.

    TSLA – Well it turns out Pepsi has 10,000 trucks so ordering 100 from TSLA (which brings the total to 287 in Worldwide orders) is a 0.1% experiment by PEP, so meaningless to them and making much ado about nothing for TSLA.  TSLA claims to be taking $20,000 deposits (PEP does not confirm) so $2M deposit represents 1 min of Pepsi sales.  

    PEP has 140 hydrogen trucks and hundreds of electric trucks already, 176 from Smith Electric (now Chanje as Smith went bust successfully selling electric trucks) so I guess they should be worth more than TSLA?  For PEP, this has been going on since 2010.

    Traders are such idiots!  

  18. SNY/ Phil: thanks, I was thinking of selling some puts initially to get a toe-hold below $40.  Will think more about this.

  19. World stocks turn higher as investors eye Fed decision

  20. That Tesla truck is bad-ass looking.  If they sold them like the Hess trucks you got at Christmas they'd make a fortune.

    Teens in CO smoking less pot; it does not seem to be the result of legalization frankly.  Perhaps the growing use of other stuff.  At any rate, more for me and my old hippie friends.

  21. Wow, Dow up 145.  It never ends. 

    Oil got clobbered though.

  22. congrats to those who bought some litecoin (LTC) at coinable and held it. holy smokes

  23. A collapse in oil prices is coming

  24. LiteCoin/BDC – Wow!  Now let's make GreenCoin do that!  Doing well today actually:

    $0.000812 USD (26.37%) 

    0.00000005 BTC (21.47%)

    At 0.001, we hit $150,000 on our 2 BitCoin investment.  At a penny, I can take next year off!  

  25. Yeah Phil, this market has no shame, but look something just happened

  26. By the way, anyone who bought GreenCoins to pay for PSW Memberships while they were below 0.00044 would obviously by better off getting 0.0008 and paying for the Membership in cash!  That would be a free Membership for anyone who took our offer last week – you're welcome!  

    If GreenCoin steadies up at higher numbers, we'll likely do a higher number acceptance next Q but our premise this Q was GreenCoin got stupidly low and we'd love to buy them for 0.00044.  

    Most importantly, this is an important proof of concept that we can get behind a small coin, build up a very small amount of transaction volume and get the needle moving.  We haven't even started to do any real PR on it!  

  27. I bought my PSW subscription with GRE at 00044. TrendWatcher. I'll be watching from the sidelines in 2018, as I can't keep up with you pros.  BTW: I've found its not easy to send USD back to your bank account on Coinbase. (they said Fidelity is not set up for ACH transfers which is BS)  Not even sure you can do it on Coinexchange. 

    Phil-BDC — what is the elevator pitch for GRE..something I can explain to a Millennial in the elevator?

  28. Image result for mr burns excellent animated gifAs wildfires rage throughout Southern California, insurance companies are sending in private firefighters to protect homes of the wealthy.

    In 1962, Warren Buffett bought his first shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A).  The S&P 500 was setting up to close the month at 65.06 and the the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 652.  The average annual income was about $5,556, while the dozen eggs cost a mere 32 cents.  By the time Buffett bought his first 2,000 shares of Berkshire Hathaway, he’d already been trading about 21 years.

    And I tell my children, I remember a time once when the stock market went DOWN for the year….

    And they say "That's silly Dad, the market doesn't even go down for a month":

    I cannot in good conscience vote to add more to the already massive $20 trillion debt. I promised Kentucky to vote against reckless, deficit spending and I will do just that.

    He doesn't mean the tax cuts (that's why the market dropped) – he means AFTER recklessly adding to the deficit with tax cuts, THEN he won't vote for any spending bills that have a deficit.  No wonder his neighbor kicked the crap out of him!  

  29. Phil – Good one. 8-)

  30. Phil / IPOA

    What do you think about IPOA, looks like they have a good portfolio of start up businesses and is run by a good leader.

    Thanks as always


  31. GRE/Phil. I don't know…you can buy all the GRE you want for 2 Satoshi ($.00034) on, which is exactly the same as all the recent lows. Any gain I have on GRE is due to the increase in Bitcoin, which all other coins are priced in. BDC can jump in if he knows any different angle.

  32. Oh, and the best you can sell it for is 1 Satoshi, so it's really only worth $0.00017.

  33. Pharm – if you're around, thoughts on the JUNO dump?

  34. gnc jo ouch!

  35. Phil,

    Looks like futures on /NGV8  (in free fall)……we are going to get natural gas in the winter for FREE if this keeps up!!!  

  36. jetluck – agree… I see the 0.00000002 price for GRE all week, no change…and god I hate those friggin zeros.  the GUI on coinexchange sucks and is even worse on the phone

  37. Latch, there appears to be just 2 exchanges that trade GRE, and, which appears to be a Russian site. 90% of the volume is on Coinexchange and the bid/ask spread on Yobit is currently crazy wide. I think the prices Phil quotes are the average of the two exchanges and the Yobit price is the midpoint between the reasonable bid and the insanely high ask, so not real. Any fluctuation seems to be based on whatever crazy ask is current on Yobit.

  38. Muck – If the opposite of pro is con, what is the opposite of progress? and do they follow the constitution? Or…..

    If "pro" is the opposite of "con", is "progress" the opposite of "congress"?
    From the 1985 movie The Bookkeeper – Gallagher

  39. Baron – CO Teens smoking less pot since legalization -  Now you know what happens when you make pot legal.  The Magic Eight Ball says – It is probable…. that abuse of alcohol, opiates and related deaths declined.  

    It is likely… issues such as dope dealing or selling drugs, street and domestic fighting and crimes against property also declined. Meanwhile, fast food sales hit new HIGHS, while retail and wholesale marijuana pricing went up in SMOKE…. more for old hippies indeed.  Badabing, Buttafuoco, Boughtabong? and Out.

  40. IPOA/Pat – They have no real record.  I don't know them but it's kind of where PSW Investments is going when we go public – but hopefully with more of a balance sheet and better cash flow!  I'm not sure where you're getting information from but what I see is very sparse.  

    GRE/Jet – Ouch, you just made it drop to 0.000560!  3 Satoshi, I guess.  I'm sure it's just priced on the last trade but, obviously, at 0.0008 I'd be selling and at 0.0002 I'd be buying.  Bottom line is, for us, we bought 4 BitCoins in PSWI for $2,400 and we used 2 of them to convert to 150M GreenCoins and now those are worth, even at 0.0002, $30,000 and we sold 1 BitCoin at $15K and we're waiting to sell the other one.  It's all just silly but we think it's possible to get them up to a penny over the next year and, if we do – we make about $1.5M, so worth a toss.  Not sure why you say the best you can sell it for is 1 Satoshi when people are actually paying more for them – they must be buying them from someone, right?  You can see the transaction log.  Seems like YoBit is where you get the better prices but much less volume.  

    As to quoting, I just quote whatever this says:  It's what most people use so kind of standard.

    Hopefully some more ETFs will open up and just start buying coins.  That would be a real jackpot for cheap coins in the Top 100.  Dogecoin is ranked 18th in volume but is only $0.003341, CrevaCoin is 49th and $0.000879 and NewYorkCoin is 81st and $0.000025.  NYC is just $6,966 in volume, won't take that much for us to push GreenCoin up the list.

    /NG/Jasu – Really awful today but strong Dollar is a good excuse and dragged wdown by big fall in oil.

    Legalizing/Naybob – Amsterdam ran that experiment decades ago with all drugs.  Worked out fine.  

    A little selling pressure.  /YM is a fun short below 24,550 with tight stops above.

  41. Edison says fire investigations now include possible role of its facilities

    • Edison International (EIX -7%) sinks in early trading following an investor update on the wind-driven Southern California wildfires that are affecting customers and electric service in Southern California Edison's service territory.
    • The causes of the wildfires are being investigated by fire protection agency CAL FIRE, other fire agencies and the California Public Utilities Commission, but SoCal Edison believes the investigations now include locations beyond those identified last week as the apparent origin of the fires as well as the possible role of its facilities.
    • The fires have destroyed more than 1,000 structures since igniting last week; the Thomas Fire – one of six in total – is larger than all of New York City and was ~20% contained as of last night, according to CAL FIRE.

    Canadian oil plunges to three-year-low on pipeline, rail bottleneck

    • Prices for heavy Canadian crude oil tumble to a three-year low against benchmark prices, widening by more than US$10/bbl since August, as pipeline companies including Enbridge (ENB-0.6%) ration space amid high Western Canadian inventories.
    • ENB said yesterday it would ration space on some of its pipelines by another 5% in December, which comes after it required shippers on light oil feeder pipelines around Edmonton, Alberta, to restrict deliveries because of “high inventories.”
    • Crude export pipelines already were filling up as new oil sands production enters the market; for example, output at Suncor Energy’s (SU +0.4%) Fort Hills mine has started and is scheduled to reach 20K-40K bbl/day by next quarter.
    • TransCanada’s (TRP -0.6%) Keystone pipeline to the U.S. shut for nearly two weeks last month after a spill in South Dakota, contributing to rising oil inventories in Western Canada; service has resumed, but the pipeline is required to run at a reduced pressure, meaning less oil can pass through.
    • Also, space on rail cars is in short supply after three disruptions to the Canadian National Railways (CNI -0.3%) system in the past two months, while business on all of the company’s lines is up 10% since last year, CNI says.

    Oasis Petroleum -15% after paying 'hefty price' for Delaware Basin acres

    • Oasis Petroleum (OAS -14.7%) plunges ~15%, most on the NYSE, in heavy volume as investors show their dismay over the company's planned public offering of 32M common shares.
    • OAS agreed to buy 20.3K acres in the Delaware Basin for $946M, consisting of $483M in cash and 46M common shares of common stock, meaning the company is issuing 78M new shares – substantial dilution to existing investors considering it had ~233M shares outstanding as of the end of Q3.
    • The deal also is viewed as a departure from its Bakken-focused strategy, and its per acre price of $46,660 looks like a hefty premium; Motley Fool's Matthew DiLallo notes two deals in the same region by Marathon Oil in March, one in which MRO paid $1.1B for 70K net acres (~$15K/acre) and the second  in which it spent $700M for 21K net acres (~$33,333/acre).
    • SunTrust Robinson Humphrey downgrades shares to Hold from Buy with an $11 price target, cut from $14, citing the "hefty price" OAS paid to enter the Delaware Basin.
    • An explosion this morning at a major natural gas facility near Austria’s border with Slovakia killed one person and injured 21 while causing some gas flow disruptions to other countries.
    • The Baumgarten plant east of Vienna is one of Europe's most important gas supply hubs as the key entry point for Russian gas into Austria and onward to Italy and other countries; Austrian and Italian gas prices are surging as a result of the blast.
    • Austrian operator OMV (OTCPK:OMVJF) has closed the facility, and Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY), which feeds gas to the hub, says it has been forced to reroute supplies to customers.
    • Analysts say a prolonged outage would reduce stocks and set the stage for higher prices in parts of Europe this winter, with Italy the most vulnerable.

    Glencore to double cobalt production as automaker demand surges

    • Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNFOTCPK:GLNCY) says it is the “best placed” among diversified mining companies to profit from the electrification of vehicles and plans to double its production of cobalt in the next two years, while also confirming that it is in talks with Tesla, Apple and Volkswagen for possible cobalt supply deals.
    • Glencore's Katanga Mining unit in the Democratic Republic of Congo expects to produce as much as 34K tons of cobalt in 2019 vs. the 20K tons/year guidance CEO Ivan Glasenberg gave in August, which could give Glencore control of ~40% of world supplies.
    • The company’s Mutanda Mining, also in the Congo, was the largest cobalt producer last year, shipping 24.5K tons out of a worldwide market of 109.5K tons, but the planned increase at Katanga will make the mine the world’s biggest by a comfortable margin.
    • Earlier: Glencore sees strong year of trading as metals rally (Dec. 12)
    • Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAYannounces a record month for its namesake brand.
    • Volkswagen deliveries were up 11.8% globally to 594.3K units.
    • China deliveries rose 5.2% to 285K to help offset a dip in Europe. North America deliveries were up 3.5% to 51.4K.
    • YTD Volkswagen brand deliveries +4.0% to 5.417M units.
    • The company says orders for e-models are on the rise.
    • Consumer Edge analyst James Albertine forecasts Tesla (TSLA +2%) will generate $2.0B to $3.5B in annual revenue from its truck business depending upon volume and final pricing.
    • The outlook is based on Tesla capturing 5% of what is expected to be a smaller Class 8 market in a few years.
    • In previous reports, Albertine has pointed out that Tesla’s competitive edge is in battery manufacturing and autonomous software.
    • Consumer Edge has an Overweight rating and $385 price target on Tesla.

    Chicken processing stocks under pressure

    • The chicken processing industry is being hit by a price collusion lawsuit filed by a group of grocery cooperatives and smaller grocery chains.
    • The legal action alleges price fixing through the Georgia Dock Benchmark Price Index.
    • Defendents include Tyson Foods (TSN -0.2%), Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC -1.3%), Perdue Farms and Sanderson Farms (SAFM -0.9%).
    • The group fell off yesterday on concerns over the suit and retail chicken pricing. On a longer time fram, investors should keep an eye on a push to tax producers based on greenhouse gas emissions.
    • Sources: Bloomberg,

    Toy story: Mattel weak after downgrade, Star Wars hopes for Hasbro

    • Shares of Mattel (MAT -4.8%) trade weak again as investors assess the company's update on Q4 sales issued yesterday.
    • The stock was also hit with a downgrade by Moness Crespi Hardt to Neutral from Buy on concerns that toy sales are trending lower this holiday season.
    • Hasbro (HAS +0.1%) is holding up today, despite the negative view on toy sales. Early positive reviews on Star Wars: The Last Jedi could be helping to boost sentiment.
    • Previously: Mattel announces private offering of senior notes due 2025 (Dec. 11)
    • Previously: Ratings agencies weigh in on Mattel (Dec. 11)

    CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing players sell off, down as much as 4%

    • CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing outfits Editas Medicine (EDIT -2.2%), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA-2%) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -3.6%) are all under pressure mid-session.
    • The culprit appears to be an article from EurekAlert!, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, citing a study implying that people's unique genetic differences could undermine the efficacy of CRISPR/Cas9, regarded by many as the "next big thing" in biotech. Such differences could mean than the gene edited therapy will need to be customized to each patient's genome.
    • The study, led by Boston Children's Hospital and the University of Montreal, analyzed 7,444 previously published whole-genome sequences to determine if any of the individuals carried DNA sequence variants in the areas targeted by the guide RNAs used to direct CRISPR/Cas9 enzymes to the desired DNA locations for ~30 high-priority diseases. Results revealed that about 50% of analyzed guide RNAs could be potentially affected by such variants. In a few cases, the genetic variants could cause off-target editing which, in rare cases, could have serious consequences.
    • The data will appear this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition.

    Big Media shadow over Netflix?

    • Is big media a big problem for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)? The Wall Street Journal's Elizabeth Winkler notes the Disney-Fox and AT&T-Time Warner deals on top of the huge original content push from Apple and Amazon could disrupt the streaming scene.
    • "While the deal making may not dethrone Netflix, it faces risks. High audience numbers will be driven by blockbuster shows, not loyalty, which helps explain why content exclusivity on platforms is rising," writes Winkler on the development.
    • Shares of Netflix are up 50% YTD.
    • Costco (NASDAQ:COST) is offering members the opportunity to buy a one-year subscription to MoviePass and Fandor in a package deal for a flat fee of $89.99.
    • MoviePass is the surging movie ticket subscription service that has sent shockwaves through the exhibitor sector, while Fandor is a highly-regarded streaming provider of independent films.
    • The offer will only be available online at until December 18.
    • Shares of MoviePass owner Helios and Matheson Analytics (NASDAQ:HMNY) are up 28% in early trading off the development. Fandor is a private company.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Positive reviews for Star Wars: The Last Jedi are providing a bit of a lift for AMC Entertainment (AMC +3.1%) and Cinemark Holdings (CNK +0.9%) ahead of the key opening weekend. Regal Entertainment (RGC) trades slightly lower after a Cineworld investor questioned the pending merger earlier today.
    • Rolling Stone calls the latest Star Wars installment the "epic" you have been waiting for.
    • New York Times: "Lo, it is a satisfying, at times transporting entertainment. Remarkably, it has visual wit and a human touch, no small achievement."
    • IndieWire say director Ron Johnson gives "new hope to the sprawling franchise by balancing off the spectacle with a fresh bag of tricks."
    • After 138 reviews, the Rotten Tomatoes rating on The Last Jedi is 93%.
    • A common complaint on the film was the 2 hour and 32 minutes running time, a length which will also hold down the number of screening during the opening weekend.

    Verizon +2.4% as Nomura upgrades to Buy, sees 15%-plus upside

    • Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is up 2.4% and inching close to its 52-week high (set in the first few trading days of 2017) after an upgrade to Buy at Nomura Instinet.
    • Jeffrey Kvaal had previously rated the stock Neutral, as have about two dozen other analysts.
    • But he's joining 10 others in the Buy column, and boosted his price target on the stock to $61 from $47, implying about 15% upside from today's higher price.

    Bitcoin Futures: 3 Nightmare Scenarios 

  42. Phil,

    What are your current futures positions? Any changes today

  43. Futures/Japar – Argh, you're making me look?  I have 8 long /SI at $15.82, 4 long /NGV8 at $2.84, 10 short /YM at 24,548 and 10 long /KC at $122.75 – those are the ones that are really killing me.  

    Nas and RUT are red and S&P barely green into the close.  Dow still way up but down from the highs.  Now we wait for the Fed.  

  44. My 2 cents:

    The only case of a millionaire in Spain with CC´s ( I know him)  is a programmer that decided to invest his small savings (about 40.000€) about 3 years ago in crypto coins…we argued with him (was our programmer for a Swiss-style voting system)  at the time about his  "craziness" .

    His approach was putting a fixed amount in all, don´t have to mention the guy is today a very rich one, he just decided after 3 years to sell his main CC´s holdings and is betting strongly in  XEM and SALT , seems he knows something about them and recommend us that.

    The only contact with him now is e-mail, (he still answer us).

    I´m a Coinbase user so only BTC,ETH, and LTC , but thinking about opening something in another operator to try a few bucks.

  45. Phil,

    Inform your girls ….LQMT  14% up today!

  46. LQMT/Advill – Yeah but after a nasty dip when the IPhone X didn't use liquid metal.  Sigh, one day.

    Very cool about your programmer.  

  47. Phil, Coinmarketcap may be "standard" but if you look behind the one price they quote, it is derived from two very thinly-traded markets, only one of which actually trades most of the tiny volume on GRE.  The bid/ask spread on the other (Russian) exchange heavily affects the quoted "average" price and it is derived from the midpoint of a completely ridiculous bid/ask spread that varies all over the map. is the only real market for GRE and it has pretty much been flat. Coinmarketcap ought to base their price on the last trades in each exchange, but they apparently don't. You are always reality-based and to quote the Coinmarketcap price is just wrong and misleading to people. Better to use this site: which doesn't include the bogus exchange YoBit.

  48. Donald Trump hits the panic button after Hope Hicks gives him up to Robert Mueller

  49. A Gift Guide for the .0001%

  50. With Jones victory, maybe there is hope that the current republican tax plan will be rejected. We only need two republicans to stop the madness.

  51. Two righteous men?   Good luck!  ????

  52. Fox News v. Robert Mueller

  53. Disney’s Deal for 21st Century Fox Is Said to Be Close

  54. An absolutely insane exchange between Jake Tapper and a Roy Moore spokesman

  55. Get To Know Your Electric-Vehicle Metals

  56. Phil- Question on UNG and rolling these out and your thoughts on adjustments or DD. I have the following positions. Long 10- Jan ‘19 4 calls average cost is $3.88. Long 20- Jan ‘19 5 calls average cost is $1.85. Short 10- Jan ‘18 7 puts sold for .98

  57. Good morning!

    Well, thank goodness we got rid of Roy Moore, that would have gone on and one if he ended up in the Senate.  One down, 51 to go!  

    Well, maybe in 2020?  On the bright side, Menendez beat the rap (mistrial)!   Flake is out but how likely is AZ to vote Democrat?  

    Other than that, we're just waiting on the Fed today.

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