Archive for 2017

Swing trading portfolio – week of April 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





Paul Craig Roberts: “It Has Become Embarrassing To Be An American”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

It has become embarrassing to be an American. Our country has had four war criminal presidents in succession. Clinton twice launched military attacks on Serbia, ordering NATO to bomb the former Yugoslavia twice, both in 1995 and in 1999, so that gives Bill two war crimes. George W. Bush invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and attacked provinces of Pakistan and Yemen from the air. That comes to four war crimes for Bush. Obama used NATO to destroy Libya and sent mercenaries to destroy Syria, thereby commiting two war crimes. Trump attacked Syria with US forces, thereby becoming a war criminal early in his regime.

To the extent that the UN participated in these war crimes along with Washington’s European, Canadian and Australian vassals, all are guilty of war crimes. Perhaps the UN itself should be arraigned before the War Crimes Tribunal along with the EU, US, Australia and Canada.

Quite a record. Western Civilization, if civilization it is, is the greatest committer of war crimes in human history.

And there are other crimes—Somalia, and Obama’s coups against Honduras and Ukraine and Washington’s ongoing attempts to overthrow the governments of Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Washington wants to overthrow Ecuador in order to grab and torture Julian Assange, the world’s leading democrat.

These war crimes committed by four US presidents caused millions of civilian deaths and injuries and dispossessed and dislocated millions of peoples, who have now arrived as refugees in Europe, UK, US, Canada, and Australia, bringing their problems with them, some of which become problerms for Europeans, such as gang rapes.

What is the reason for all the death and destruction and the flooding of the West with refugees from the West’s naked violence? We don’t know. We are told lies: Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction,” which the US government knew for an absolute fact did not exist. “Assad’s use of chemical weapons,” an obvious, blatant lie. “Iranian nukes,” another blatant lie. The lies about Gaddafi in Libya are so absurd that it is pointless to repeat them.

What were the lies used to justify bombing tribesmen in Pakistan, to bomb a new government in Yemen? No American knows or cares. Why the US violence against Somalia? Again, no Americans knows or cares. Or the morons saw a movie.

Violence for its


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Weekly Market Recap Apr 16, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Important note – we are doing a survey of our readers which can be found here.  If you are new to the site in the past few months our surveys are probably the least taxing of any on the internet; usually 2 or 3 questions so we’d appreciate the few moments it takes to fill one out.  Thanks so much!

Still no significant movement in the indexes but with moderate losses Wednesday and Thursday, the major indexes did put in a negative week of >1% which has been a rarity in 2017.  Geopolitical events seemed to weigh on the market as the talk about tax reform / infrastructure spend seemed to be kicked out to the future.  Earnings season also began as a trickle in the holiday shortened week.

“Geopolitical concerns have clearly been on the rise over the last week or so with Syria and North Korea never far from the front pages while it’s worth noting that we are all of a sudden now just 12 days away from the first round presidential election in France,” wrote Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Tuesday note.

We also saw some degradation in the S&P 500 chart which we will outline lower on the page; meanwhile the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fell to key support levels.  But it is worth noting the S&P 500 fell below the 50 day moving average for the first time since November 8th.

Transports are also looking salty…

Semiconductors – another economically sensitive sector, also broke a long trendline of support late in the prior week and then this past week broke down further; now below the 50 day moving average.

Retail sales for March were released Friday even as markets were closed… and they were meh.

Sales at U.S. retailers fell in March for the second month in a row, marking the worst two-month stretch in two years.  Sales at retailers nationwide declined 0.2% last month, mostly because of cheaper gas and incentives by car dealers to drum up sales. Slower-than usual issuances of tax refunds may have also


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Trump Tops Other Presidents In Golfing Getaways

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After his first 12 weeks on the job, a New York Times analysis has found that Donald Trump has spent more time at his private residence and on the golf course than his three predecessors.

Infographic: Trump tops other presidents in golfing getaways  | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

As Statista’s Nial McCarthy details, Trump has spent six of his 12 weekends at his Florida residence, considerably more time than Obama, Bush and Clinton spent away from the White House at this stage of their respective presidencies.

When it comes to golfing, Trump has spent 17 days out on the course. After 81 days, Bill Clinton had been golfing three times while Obama and Bush left their clubs untouched. Read more on the Independent.





Mainstream Media Joke of the Week: “Trump Tanked the US Dollar”

Courtesy of Mish.

Last Wednesday, president Trump commented, “I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me.”

Numerous mainstream media reports were was all over Trump’s statement, attributing major moves in the US dollar to Trump’s statement.

Now that the dust has settled, let’s recap some headlines and look at what really happened on Wednesday, April 12.

April 12 Headlines

US Dollar Index 

The US dollar fell from 100.71 to 100.46. That’s a 0.25% move. Allegedly that constitutes “tank” and “sharply lower”.

April 16 US Dollar Index Update

Watching the futures, the index is now at 100.30 as of 8:11 PM central.


Continue reading here…





USDJPY, Yields Slide, Gold Spikes As Markets Finally Respond To Latest Set Of Economic, Geopolitical Shocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With markets shut on Good Friday, even as the one-two knockout punch of the worst monthly core CPI print in 7 years hit…

… coupled with a miss in March retail sales, which suffered their biggest two month drop in 2 years

… on Sunday night traders were desperate to catch up, or rather down to, the USDJPY which was the only instrument that traded through Friday’s data dump, and which at last check was trading at 108.34, nearly 100 pips below the Friday open, sliding further in early Japanese trading as the last holdouts on the reflation trade capitulate in panic, further pressured by fears over the rapidly deterioating situation in North Korea.

As one would expect, a surge in the yen means continued weakness in the dollar, and sure enough on Sunday night, Donald Trump’s recent bid for a weaker greenback has been the market’s command.

Predictably, and contrary to virtually every sellside analyst’s prediction for ongoing levitation in interest rates, US TSY yields have tumbled across the curve, with 5-year yields down as much as 5bps at 1.72%, lowest since Nov. 18, while the benchmark 10-year yield has slide 4bps to 2.20%, also the lowest since the election.

Perhaps the one asset class where the reflation revulsion has not been observed yet is S&P futures, as the E-mini stubbornly holds out to selling pressure and is barely lower on the session following Thursday’s sharp drop.

However, while equity markets may be ignoring the moves in FX and rates, gold is hardly waiting, and on Sunday night evening was trading above $1,290/oz, the highest price since the Trump electiomn… 

… and poised for a key double resistance breakout.

While the spike in gold is hardly a surprise in light of last week’s economic data and this weekend’s North Korean events, with spot not trading there was little opportunity for traders to take advantage of what many expected would be a sharp jump in the yellow metal. Except… that’s not quite true: as we noted on Friday, while spot may have be closed, physical vendors such as Ampex were happy to sell gold, and even better, at Thursday’s depressed price.

Gold arb trade: Physical dealers like Apmex are still stuck


continue reading





Gold Surges, USDJPY, Yields Slide As Markets Finally Respond To Latest Set Of Economic, Geopolitical Shocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With markets shut on Good Friday, even as the one-two knockout punch of the worst monthly core CPI print in 7 years hit…

… coupled with a miss in March retail sales, which suffered their biggest two month drop in 2 years

… on Sunday night traders were desperate to catch up, or rather down to, the USDJPY which was the only instrument that traded through Friday’s data dump, and which at last check was trading at 108.34, nearly 100 pips below the Friday open, sliding further in early Japanese trading as the last holdouts on the reflation trade capitulate in panic, further pressured by fears over the rapidly deterioating situation in North Korea.

As one would expect, a surge in the yen means continued weakness in the dollar, and sure enough on Sunday night, Donald Trump’s recent bid for a weaker greenback has been the market’s command.

Predictably, and contrary to virtually every sellside analyst’s prediction for ongoing levitation in interest rates, US TSY yields have tumbled across the curve, with 5-year yields down as much as 5bps at 1.72%, lowest since Nov. 18, while the benchmark 10-year yield has slide 4bps to 2.20%, also the lowest since the election.

Perhaps the one asset class where the reflation revulsion has not been observed yet is S&P futures, as the E-mini stubbornly holds out to selling pressure and is barely lower on the session following Thursday’s sharp drop.

However, while equity markets may be ignoring the moves in FX and rates, gold is hardly waiting, and on Sunday night evening was trading above $1,290/oz, the highest price since the Trump electiomn… 

… and poised for a key double resistance breakout.

While the spike in gold is hardly a surprise in light of last week’s economic data and this weekend’s North Korean events, with spot not trading there was little opportunity for traders to take advantage of what many expected would be a sharp jump in the yellow metal. Except… that’s not quite true: as we noted on Friday, while spot may have be closed, physical vendors such as Ampex were happy to sell gold, and even better, at Thursday’s depressed price.

Gold arb trade: Physical dealers like Apmex are still stuck


continue reading





World’s Biggest Aluminum Producer Faces Default, Warns Of “Dramatic Social Unrest” Without A Beijing Bailout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Step aside China Huishan Dairy Holdings – a company which cratered last month after a negative Muddy Waters research report brought attention to a company we knew for one year was collateralizing its cows to fund stock buybacks - and make space for what may be the next Chinese megafraud.

While China Hongqiao Group may be best known for being the world’s largest aluminum producer, it has in recent months featured just as prominently among short-seller reports who have accused the company of being a fraud. As the WSJ’s Scott Patterson writes, questions about China Hongqiao’s finances first emerged in November, when an anonymous short seller wrote on a website called Hongqiao Exposed that the company’s profits are “too good to be true.” China Hongqiao in the March 31 statement called the report “untrue and unfounded.”

A subsequent 46-page report on Feb. 28 by Emerson Analytics, a trading firm focused on Chinese stock-market fraud, disclosed more allegations of fraud involving the Chinese commodity giant.

Emerson accused China Hongqiao of “abnormally high” profits generated by underreporting production costs and disclosing electricity expenses—one of the biggest costs for aluminum producers—as much as 40% below their true cost. Emerson said it investigated Chinese electricity costs, spoke to former China Hongqiao employees and compared the company’s costs and profits with other comparable companies.

Additionally, China Hongqiao has been more profitable than some Chinese competitors. For instance, China Hongqiao earned an average operating profit margin of 27% in the past five years, compared with minus-1.7% for state-owned Aluminum Corp. of China , known as Chalco, and 5.9% for Alcoa, according to FactSet. “People were always skeptical about how they managed to be more profitable than their peers,” said Sandra Chow, a credit analyst at CreditSights.

And while China Hongqiao denied the Emerson report’s allegations and said it hired an investigative agency to look into the firm and people behind the claims, things are starting to unravel rapidly for the Chinese megacap.

As Patterson reports, China Hongqiao – the world’s biggest aluminum producer – is in trouble, locked in a feud with its accountant over fraud allegations that have forced it to suspend trading of its shares and seek help from the central government in Beijing.


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

American Drivers Won't Pay Much More at the Pump This Summer (Bloomberg)

American drivers paying the the most for gasoline since 2015 can take some comfort from forecasts that prices don’t have much further to rise.

It's especially hard to find a home to buy right now — and it could get worse for millennials (Business Insider)

Home shoppers might have an especially hard time finding the house of their dreams this spring. 

According to real-estate site Zillow, there are 3% fewer homes on the market than there were a year ago.

Money Doesn’t Buy Happiness (in America) (Bloomberg)

Chances are, if you live in the U.S., you feel worse today than you did 10 years ago. Don’t worry, it’s not you. This is a national problem: America’s rank on the happiness scale is falling.

Opec warns of a world that still has far too much oil (Live Mint)

The oil market is tipping slowly from glut to equilibrium, as output cuts from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and 11 non-Opec countries start to reduce crude flows.

The big banks can't agree whether oil's in a supply crunch or a supply glut (OilPrice.com)

In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks.

The Main Investing Advantage of the Wealthy (Value Walk)

It is a well-known phenomenon that most investors underperform even their own investments as they have a tendency to move in and out of their investments at the most inopportune times.  The consequence of this poor investment behavior is that much wealth is left unrealized, especially by those in lower income tiers, and wealth inequality is thereby exacerbated.

GDP Now (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast"


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Insider Roger Stone: “Trump Diplomacy Is Working… It’s Really Working”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

President Trump has taken a lot of flack recently, first for his direct strike on a Syrian airfield using 59 Tomahawk missiles, then for responding to North Korean rhetoric and nuclear testing by deploying a Naval Strike Fleet to the region, and finally for dropping the world’s largest non-nuclear Mother Of All Bombs on a cave complex housing as many as 800 Islamic State fighters.

For many, it appears on the surface that Donald Trump, the military industrial complex and Deep State operatives behind the scenes have war on their minds.

The criticisms leveled at the President are certainly the result of real concern from his constituents, especially since as a candidate he promised to change the system and root out its corrupt and warlike culture, only to turn around and take three significant military actions within his first 100 days in office. Even if those who have railed against the President are wrong, at the very least one could argue that the criticisms are necessary in order to maintain a cross-check on the actions of the Executive Branch.

But political insider Roger Stone, who at one point was head of Trump’s campaign, says that the President’s recent decisions prove he is a man of action who is very much uprooting the strategies, tactics and geo-political machinations of the old guard.

According to Stone, who joined Infowars.com host Alex Jones in an interview over the weekend, President Trump is moving to permanently resolve the world’s most pressing conflicts, some of which have spanned decades:

Obviously you have a group in the White House who think they are puppeteers… and they’d like to have Trump be their puppet… Donald Trump is no man’s puppet… he works for the American people…

Whenever Donald trump has all the information he will almost invariably make the right decision… This is what’s happened here.. He elected to do a limited Syrian strike… His advisors immediately saw an opening to propose a full Vietnam-style ground war… 150,000 troops… The defense contractors were licking their chops they were so happy… the bad news for them was that so many Libertarians, so many non-interventionists, so many patriots, so many Trump supporters expressed their opposition or concern both publicly and privately


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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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