Archive for 2017

Swing trading portfolio – week of April 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





Paul Craig Roberts: “It Has Become Embarrassing To Be An American”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

It has become embarrassing to be an American. Our country has had four war criminal presidents in succession. Clinton twice launched military attacks on Serbia, ordering NATO to bomb the former Yugoslavia twice, both in 1995 and in 1999, so that gives Bill two war crimes. George W. Bush invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and attacked provinces of Pakistan and Yemen from the air. That comes to four war crimes for Bush. Obama used NATO to destroy Libya and sent mercenaries to destroy Syria, thereby commiting two war crimes. Trump attacked Syria with US forces, thereby becoming a war criminal early in his regime.

To the extent that the UN participated in these war crimes along with Washington’s European, Canadian and Australian vassals, all are guilty of war crimes. Perhaps the UN itself should be arraigned before the War Crimes Tribunal along with the EU, US, Australia and Canada.

Quite a record. Western Civilization, if civilization it is, is the greatest committer of war crimes in human history.

And there are other crimes—Somalia, and Obama’s coups against Honduras and Ukraine and Washington’s ongoing attempts to overthrow the governments of Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Washington wants to overthrow Ecuador in order to grab and torture Julian Assange, the world’s leading democrat.

These war crimes committed by four US presidents caused millions of civilian deaths and injuries and dispossessed and dislocated millions of peoples, who have now arrived as refugees in Europe, UK, US, Canada, and Australia, bringing their problems with them, some of which become problerms for Europeans, such as gang rapes.

What is the reason for all the death and destruction and the flooding of the West with refugees from the West’s naked violence? We don’t know. We are told lies: Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction,” which the US government knew for an absolute fact did not exist. “Assad’s use of chemical weapons,” an obvious, blatant lie. “Iranian nukes,” another blatant lie. The lies about Gaddafi in Libya are so absurd that it is pointless to repeat them.

What were the lies used to justify bombing tribesmen in Pakistan, to bomb a new government in Yemen? No American knows or cares. Why the US violence against Somalia? Again, no Americans knows or cares. Or the morons saw a movie.

Violence for its


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Weekly Market Recap Apr 16, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

Important note – we are doing a survey of our readers which can be found here.  If you are new to the site in the past few months our surveys are probably the least taxing of any on the internet; usually 2 or 3 questions so we’d appreciate the few moments it takes to fill one out.  Thanks so much!

Still no significant movement in the indexes but with moderate losses Wednesday and Thursday, the major indexes did put in a negative week of >1% which has been a rarity in 2017.  Geopolitical events seemed to weigh on the market as the talk about tax reform / infrastructure spend seemed to be kicked out to the future.  Earnings season also began as a trickle in the holiday shortened week.

“Geopolitical concerns have clearly been on the rise over the last week or so with Syria and North Korea never far from the front pages while it’s worth noting that we are all of a sudden now just 12 days away from the first round presidential election in France,” wrote Jim Reid, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, in a Tuesday note.

We also saw some degradation in the S&P 500 chart which we will outline lower on the page; meanwhile the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fell to key support levels.  But it is worth noting the S&P 500 fell below the 50 day moving average for the first time since November 8th.

Transports are also looking salty…

Semiconductors – another economically sensitive sector, also broke a long trendline of support late in the prior week and then this past week broke down further; now below the 50 day moving average.

Retail sales for March were released Friday even as markets were closed… and they were meh.

Sales at U.S. retailers fell in March for the second month in a row, marking the worst two-month stretch in two years.  Sales at retailers nationwide declined 0.2% last month, mostly because of cheaper gas and incentives by car dealers to drum up sales. Slower-than usual issuances of tax refunds may have also


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Trump Tops Other Presidents In Golfing Getaways

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After his first 12 weeks on the job, a New York Times analysis has found that Donald Trump has spent more time at his private residence and on the golf course than his three predecessors.

Infographic: Trump tops other presidents in golfing getaways  | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

As Statista’s Nial McCarthy details, Trump has spent six of his 12 weekends at his Florida residence, considerably more time than Obama, Bush and Clinton spent away from the White House at this stage of their respective presidencies.

When it comes to golfing, Trump has spent 17 days out on the course. After 81 days, Bill Clinton had been golfing three times while Obama and Bush left their clubs untouched. Read more on the Independent.





Mainstream Media Joke of the Week: “Trump Tanked the US Dollar”

Courtesy of Mish.

Last Wednesday, president Trump commented, “I think our dollar is getting too strong, and partially that’s my fault because people have confidence in me.”

Numerous mainstream media reports were was all over Trump’s statement, attributing major moves in the US dollar to Trump’s statement.

Now that the dust has settled, let’s recap some headlines and look at what really happened on Wednesday, April 12.

April 12 Headlines

US Dollar Index 

The US dollar fell from 100.71 to 100.46. That’s a 0.25% move. Allegedly that constitutes “tank” and “sharply lower”.

April 16 US Dollar Index Update

Watching the futures, the index is now at 100.30 as of 8:11 PM central.


Continue reading here…





USDJPY, Yields Slide, Gold Spikes As Markets Finally Respond To Latest Set Of Economic, Geopolitical Shocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With markets shut on Good Friday, even as the one-two knockout punch of the worst monthly core CPI print in 7 years hit…

… coupled with a miss in March retail sales, which suffered their biggest two month drop in 2 years

… on Sunday night traders were desperate to catch up, or rather down to, the USDJPY which was the only instrument that traded through Friday’s data dump, and which at last check was trading at 108.34, nearly 100 pips below the Friday open, sliding further in early Japanese trading as the last holdouts on the reflation trade capitulate in panic, further pressured by fears over the rapidly deterioating situation in North Korea.

As one would expect, a surge in the yen means continued weakness in the dollar, and sure enough on Sunday night, Donald Trump’s recent bid for a weaker greenback has been the market’s command.

Predictably, and contrary to virtually every sellside analyst’s prediction for ongoing levitation in interest rates, US TSY yields have tumbled across the curve, with 5-year yields down as much as 5bps at 1.72%, lowest since Nov. 18, while the benchmark 10-year yield has slide 4bps to 2.20%, also the lowest since the election.

Perhaps the one asset class where the reflation revulsion has not been observed yet is S&P futures, as the E-mini stubbornly holds out to selling pressure and is barely lower on the session following Thursday’s sharp drop.

However, while equity markets may be ignoring the moves in FX and rates, gold is hardly waiting, and on Sunday night evening was trading above $1,290/oz, the highest price since the Trump electiomn… 

… and poised for a key double resistance breakout.

While the spike in gold is hardly a surprise in light of last week’s economic data and this weekend’s North Korean events, with spot not trading there was little opportunity for traders to take advantage of what many expected would be a sharp jump in the yellow metal. Except… that’s not quite true: as we noted on Friday, while spot may have be closed, physical vendors such as Ampex were happy to sell gold, and even better, at Thursday’s depressed price.

Gold arb trade: Physical dealers like Apmex are still stuck


continue reading





Gold Surges, USDJPY, Yields Slide As Markets Finally Respond To Latest Set Of Economic, Geopolitical Shocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With markets shut on Good Friday, even as the one-two knockout punch of the worst monthly core CPI print in 7 years hit…

… coupled with a miss in March retail sales, which suffered their biggest two month drop in 2 years

… on Sunday night traders were desperate to catch up, or rather down to, the USDJPY which was the only instrument that traded through Friday’s data dump, and which at last check was trading at 108.34, nearly 100 pips below the Friday open, sliding further in early Japanese trading as the last holdouts on the reflation trade capitulate in panic, further pressured by fears over the rapidly deterioating situation in North Korea.

As one would expect, a surge in the yen means continued weakness in the dollar, and sure enough on Sunday night, Donald Trump’s recent bid for a weaker greenback has been the market’s command.

Predictably, and contrary to virtually every sellside analyst’s prediction for ongoing levitation in interest rates, US TSY yields have tumbled across the curve, with 5-year yields down as much as 5bps at 1.72%, lowest since Nov. 18, while the benchmark 10-year yield has slide 4bps to 2.20%, also the lowest since the election.

Perhaps the one asset class where the reflation revulsion has not been observed yet is S&P futures, as the E-mini stubbornly holds out to selling pressure and is barely lower on the session following Thursday’s sharp drop.

However, while equity markets may be ignoring the moves in FX and rates, gold is hardly waiting, and on Sunday night evening was trading above $1,290/oz, the highest price since the Trump electiomn… 

… and poised for a key double resistance breakout.

While the spike in gold is hardly a surprise in light of last week’s economic data and this weekend’s North Korean events, with spot not trading there was little opportunity for traders to take advantage of what many expected would be a sharp jump in the yellow metal. Except… that’s not quite true: as we noted on Friday, while spot may have be closed, physical vendors such as Ampex were happy to sell gold, and even better, at Thursday’s depressed price.

Gold arb trade: Physical dealers like Apmex are still stuck


continue reading





World’s Biggest Aluminum Producer Faces Default, Warns Of “Dramatic Social Unrest” Without A Beijing Bailout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Step aside China Huishan Dairy Holdings – a company which cratered last month after a negative Muddy Waters research report brought attention to a company we knew for one year was collateralizing its cows to fund stock buybacks - and make space for what may be the next Chinese megafraud.

While China Hongqiao Group may be best known for being the world’s largest aluminum producer, it has in recent months featured just as prominently among short-seller reports who have accused the company of being a fraud. As the WSJ’s Scott Patterson writes, questions about China Hongqiao’s finances first emerged in November, when an anonymous short seller wrote on a website called Hongqiao Exposed that the company’s profits are “too good to be true.” China Hongqiao in the March 31 statement called the report “untrue and unfounded.”

A subsequent 46-page report on Feb. 28 by Emerson Analytics, a trading firm focused on Chinese stock-market fraud, disclosed more allegations of fraud involving the Chinese commodity giant.

Emerson accused China Hongqiao of “abnormally high” profits generated by underreporting production costs and disclosing electricity expenses—one of the biggest costs for aluminum producers—as much as 40% below their true cost. Emerson said it investigated Chinese electricity costs, spoke to former China Hongqiao employees and compared the company’s costs and profits with other comparable companies.

Additionally, China Hongqiao has been more profitable than some Chinese competitors. For instance, China Hongqiao earned an average operating profit margin of 27% in the past five years, compared with minus-1.7% for state-owned Aluminum Corp. of China , known as Chalco, and 5.9% for Alcoa, according to FactSet. “People were always skeptical about how they managed to be more profitable than their peers,” said Sandra Chow, a credit analyst at CreditSights.

And while China Hongqiao denied the Emerson report’s allegations and said it hired an investigative agency to look into the firm and people behind the claims, things are starting to unravel rapidly for the Chinese megacap.

As Patterson reports, China Hongqiao – the world’s biggest aluminum producer – is in trouble, locked in a feud with its accountant over fraud allegations that have forced it to suspend trading of its shares and seek help from the central government in Beijing.


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News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

American Drivers Won't Pay Much More at the Pump This Summer (Bloomberg)

American drivers paying the the most for gasoline since 2015 can take some comfort from forecasts that prices don’t have much further to rise.

It's especially hard to find a home to buy right now — and it could get worse for millennials (Business Insider)

Home shoppers might have an especially hard time finding the house of their dreams this spring. 

According to real-estate site Zillow, there are 3% fewer homes on the market than there were a year ago.

Money Doesn’t Buy Happiness (in America) (Bloomberg)

Chances are, if you live in the U.S., you feel worse today than you did 10 years ago. Don’t worry, it’s not you. This is a national problem: America’s rank on the happiness scale is falling.

Opec warns of a world that still has far too much oil (Live Mint)

The oil market is tipping slowly from glut to equilibrium, as output cuts from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and 11 non-Opec countries start to reduce crude flows.

The big banks can't agree whether oil's in a supply crunch or a supply glut (OilPrice.com)

In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC’s production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street’s major investment banks.

The Main Investing Advantage of the Wealthy (Value Walk)

It is a well-known phenomenon that most investors underperform even their own investments as they have a tendency to move in and out of their investments at the most inopportune times.  The consequence of this poor investment behavior is that much wealth is left unrealized, especially by those in lower income tiers, and wealth inequality is thereby exacerbated.

GDP Now (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast"


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Insider Roger Stone: “Trump Diplomacy Is Working… It’s Really Working”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

President Trump has taken a lot of flack recently, first for his direct strike on a Syrian airfield using 59 Tomahawk missiles, then for responding to North Korean rhetoric and nuclear testing by deploying a Naval Strike Fleet to the region, and finally for dropping the world’s largest non-nuclear Mother Of All Bombs on a cave complex housing as many as 800 Islamic State fighters.

For many, it appears on the surface that Donald Trump, the military industrial complex and Deep State operatives behind the scenes have war on their minds.

The criticisms leveled at the President are certainly the result of real concern from his constituents, especially since as a candidate he promised to change the system and root out its corrupt and warlike culture, only to turn around and take three significant military actions within his first 100 days in office. Even if those who have railed against the President are wrong, at the very least one could argue that the criticisms are necessary in order to maintain a cross-check on the actions of the Executive Branch.

But political insider Roger Stone, who at one point was head of Trump’s campaign, says that the President’s recent decisions prove he is a man of action who is very much uprooting the strategies, tactics and geo-political machinations of the old guard.

According to Stone, who joined Infowars.com host Alex Jones in an interview over the weekend, President Trump is moving to permanently resolve the world’s most pressing conflicts, some of which have spanned decades:

Obviously you have a group in the White House who think they are puppeteers… and they’d like to have Trump be their puppet… Donald Trump is no man’s puppet… he works for the American people…

Whenever Donald trump has all the information he will almost invariably make the right decision… This is what’s happened here.. He elected to do a limited Syrian strike… His advisors immediately saw an opening to propose a full Vietnam-style ground war… 150,000 troops… The defense contractors were licking their chops they were so happy… the bad news for them was that so many Libertarians, so many non-interventionists, so many patriots, so many Trump supporters expressed their opposition or concern both publicly and privately


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ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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