Archive for 2017

Warren Buffett How Ordinary People Can Invest & Get Profits

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.


Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway

Photo by thetaxhaven

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Howard Marks – Psychology Is The Most Important Discipline In Investing

By The Acquirer’s Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One of our favorite investors at The Acquirer’s Multiple is Howard Marks.

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The Most Important Thing - Howard Marks

One of our favorite memos is one he wrote in January, 1994, where he discusses the most important discipline in investing – psychology. It’s a must read for all investors.

Here’s an excerpt from that memo:

No group or sector in the investment world enjoys as its birthright the promise of consistent high returns.

There is no asset class that will do well simply because of what it is. An example of this is real estate. People said, “You should buy real estate because it’s a hedge against inflation,” and “You should buy real estate because they’re not making any more.” But done at the wrong time, real estate investing didn’t work.

What matters most is not what you invest in, but when and at what price.

There is no such thing as a good or bad investment idea per se. For example, the selection of good companies is certainly not enough to assure good results — see Xerox, Avon, Merck and the rest of the “nifty fifty” in 1974.

Any investment can be good or bad depending on when it’s made and what price is paid. It’s been said that “any bond can be triple-A at a price.”

There is no security that is so good that it can’t be overpriced, or so bad that it can’t be underpriced.

The discipline which is most important in investing is not accounting or economics, but psychology.

The key is who likes the investment now and who doesn’t. Future price changes will be determined by whether it comes to be liked by more people or fewer people in the future.

Investing is a popularity contest, and the most dangerous thing is to buy…
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Watch: Bigoted Turtleneck-Wearing Liberal Gets Tossed Off Plane For Harassing Trump Supporter! [updated]

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

File this under Justice Porn…

A miserable seething bitch and her browbeaten husband are the stars of a new video making it’s way around the internet after the woman, a horrible human being, decided to berate a Trump supporter on an airplane. First, here’s what happened from the guy it happened to:

scott

The first flight attendant to deal with his bigot isn’t having any of her shit:

Attendant #1: “Is there going to be a problem?”

Woman: “There will be, I would like for him to change seats with somebody who did not put us all in harm’s way”

Attendant #1: “Well, you don’t have that right!”

[mic drop, goes to get other flight attendant]

When the second flight attendant breaks the news of her impending ejection, this ivory tower liberal starts throwing her dead mother in law out to try and gain some sympathy:

Woman: “I’m going home now. My mother in law, his mother, died. And we had to be here. I’m going home now, there is no way I’m getting off this plane.”

Attendant #2: “I’m terribly sorry for that, but that does not give you the right to treat people the way you’ve been treating them.

[indignancy intensifies]

Husband: “What if we trade seats and she quiets down? How would that be?”

Attendant #2: “Unfortunately the captain has already made the call…”

DENIED

Enjoy the show: 

Update to potato quality video - Someone sent Milo a perfect view of the carnage. That husband really gave the overhead bin latch what for…

Note the applause…

Note the applause…

nostep





Watch: Bigoted Turtleneck-Wearing Liberal Gets Tossed Off Plane For Harassing Trump Supporter!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

File this under Justice Porn…

A miserable seething bitch and her browbeaten husband are the stars of a new video making it’s way around the internet after the woman, a horrible human being, decided to berate a Trump supporter on an airplane. First, here’s what happened from the guy it happened to:

scott

The first flight attendant to deal with his bigot isn’t having any of her shit:

Attendant #1: “Is there going to be a problem?”

Woman: “There will be, I would like for him to change seats with somebody who did not put us all in harm’s way”

Attendant #1: “Well, you don’t have that right!”

[mic drop, goes to get other flight attendant]

When the second flight attendant breaks the news of her impending ejection, this ivory tower liberal starts throwing her dead mother in law out to try and gain some sympathy:

Woman: “I’m going home now. My mother in law, his mother in law, died. And we had to be here. I’m going home now, there is no way I’m getting off this plane.”

Attendant #2: “I’m terribly sorry for that, but that does not give you the right to treat people the way you’ve been treating them.

[indignancy intensifies]

Husband: “What if we trade seats and she quiets down? How would that be?”

Attendant #2: “Unfortunately the captain has already made the call…”

DENIED

Enjoy the show: 

And a potato quality recording of her actually getting tossed:

Note the applause…

nostep





Treasuries Besieged by ‘Idiot Money’: Record Shorts in Treasuries Paint an Ominous Picture for Bond Bears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As some of you might recall, in December of 2015, I went long treasuries, due to my belief that negative interest rates would wreak havoc across the investment landscape — bringing with it a deflationary vortex that would consume all whole — especially equity holders. For the better part of 2016, this was the single best trade to be in — and I had it before anyone deemed it to be fashionable.

Then the elections came and a gigantic Trump induced squeeze commenced — helping rout bonds and buoy equities in record fashion. Looking back on that rally, it was a fucking month — literally nothing in the big scheme of things. Should bonds rally again, recapturing some of its former glory, no one will remember the faux inflation days of November-January — post Hillary annihilation.

Looking at the bond trade, it’s ripe for a reversion to the mean. After all, the most reprehensible people around, pavement apes and the like, are short bonds. These are the ‘Fast Money’ people — the same lads who bought mortgage bonds in 2007 and dot com hand grenades in the spring of 2000.

Via CFTC:

The amount of speculators’ bearish, or short, positions in

10-year Treasury futures exceeded bullish, or long, positions by

394,689 contracts on Jan. 10, according to the CFTC’s latest

Commitments of Traders data.

A week earlier, speculators held 344,931 net short positions

in 10-year T-note futures.

Net shorts in five-year T-note futures and Eurodollar

futures among speculators also climbed to record highs in the

latest week, while speculative T-bond net shorts rose to their

highest level since March 2012, according to CFTC data.

Net shorts in federal funds futures among speculators rose

to their highest since August 2015.

The rise in net shorts among these futures contracts

suggested this group of market participants believes bond prices

will resume their fall despite their rebound since mid-December.

Juxtaposing short data with actual yield action, proves, in fact, that the shorts are literally pavement apes — idiots devoid of reason — slaves to the basest instincts that require zero thinking. These are horrible people.

IMG_6188

IMG_6189

Yields on the 5 year treasury have doubled since our glorious leader, Donald J. Trump,


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Weekly Market Recap Jan 22, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

This rally is getting long in the tooth so simply from a duration standpoint some caution is merited. There are other reasons which we will outline later. That said this particular week was a quiet group of sessions with mild gains and losses mixed in; the market was closed on Monday. Earnings were the focus of the week as was the Trump speech Friday where investors may begin to start pivoting off hope for everything to be perfect, and start looking at the reality of Washington D.C. doing Washington D.C. things. Even with 1 party controlling both major branches.

Overseas, the European Central Bank, as expected, left interest rates unchanged Thursday. The decision was expected after the ECB last month decided to extend its bond buying program through the end of 2017. ECB head Mario Draghi said there was “no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation” adding the central bank was ready to expand its quantitative-easing program if needed. His comments pushed the euro and the yen lower against the dollar.

On the economic front, the consumer-price index, a widely watched gauge of inflationary pressure, showed price growth accelerated in 2016 at the fastest pace since 2011. In December, the index rose 0.3%. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices rose 0.2%.

This was another week “Dow 20K” was not attained; and in fact we might have just seen a bearish double top.

djia

Here is a 5 day “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 via Doug Short.

SPX-five-day

Chuck E. Cheese is going public later this year!

The parent of Chuck E. Cheese has begun preparations for an initial public offering (IPO) that could value the U.S. restaurant chain at more than $1 billion, including debt, people familiar with the situation said on Tuesday. // // // The IPO would be a bet that Irving, Texas-based Chuck E. Cheese’s arcade games and kid-focused activities will differentiate it in the minds of investors from other more commoditized restaurant chains that have failed to whet


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Everything Is Awesome!

Courtesy of Mish.

The market is pricing in a lot of “Everything is Awesome”. Reader Jason Leach, CFA, asks “Is all this awesomeness, real or fantasy? Has it been pulled forward?

Pulling Awesome Forward

What follows is a guest post from Jason B. Leach of Fusion Point Capital. His title is Pulling Awesome Forward.

awesome1

U.S. markets have “celebrated” the Trump election, with the S&P 500 rising ~8% after a quick ~4% drop pre-election (and much deeper drop in futures the night of the election). There are quite a number of themes, positive and negative, continuing into the new year from 2016. The “positives” – infrastructure spend, tax reform, healthcare reform, and deregulation – have built a relentless bid, or scared off sellers…for the time being.

awesome2

The “negatives” – dollar strength, dollar scarcity, global debt bubble, Fed divergence, stress in European and Chinese banks, Yuan devaluation, rising populism in Europe (with French, Italian, German elections around the corner), low but rising probability of Euro-Exits, protectionist leanings (Smoot-Hawley tariffs contributed to a 66% decline in global trade from 1929-1934), and U.S. equity valuations at the third highest level ever (median stock on the S&P 500 at 98th percentile, and the all-time highest valuation for the index when including the enormous amount of corporate debt growth over the past decade) – are relegated to the dark recesses of pre-election…pre-light.

awesome3

There are myriad estimates of what Trump’s policies could add to GDP and thus corporate earnings. If these policies are well thought out and passed quickly, no doubt there will be boosts. But, and there are several big “buts” here, with the current state of divisiveness, every issue is “third rail” and unless Republicans are willing to use the nuclear option (reconciliation where simple majority passes in the Senate) like a tactical weapon (i.e., repeatedly), the “positives” being pulled forward into today’s market pricing may take many more moons than anticipated. And, as detailed in iterations of Trillion Dollar Sam, these deep structural problems are decades in the making and will require more than outpatient Trump surgery in the first 100 days to rectify.                                            awesome4


Continue reading here…





The ‘Strong Buy’ Case In Facebook: WhatsApp, Instagram And More

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The 'Strong Buy' Case In Facebook: WhatsApp, Instagram And More

Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Financial reiterated his Strong Buy rating on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) saying that monetization of mobile, video, Whatsapp and Instagram are strong future catalysts for the stock.

“Ad revenue growth (even at a slower pace) in conjunction with, ongoing investment and development in key growth initiatives as well as in applications will continue to drive strong Business Performance, greater cash flow and increasing return on capital,” Feinseth wrote in a note.

For the quarter ending September 2016, revenue increased 55 percent to $24.7 billion and the analyst estimate this to increasing over 38 percent in the next 12 months to $34.2 billion.

Feinseth is of the view that Facebook’s cautious outlook would prove to be conservative and believes Facebook can maintain above average growth rates and margins despite lower contribution from ad loads.

In addition, the analyst expects artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual reality as the next leg of growth for Facebook. Especially, AI would help Facebook’s clients to better target consumers as spending on digital ads is set to surpass TV ads this year.

At last check, shares of Facebook rose 1.20 percent to $128.57.

Latest Ratings for FB

Date Firm Action From To
Jan 2017 Pacific Crest Reinstates Overweight
Jan 2017 Raymond James Upgrades Outperform Strong Buy
Jan 2017 Aegis Capital Initiates Coverage On Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for FB


View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Ivan Feinseth Tigress FinancialAnalyst Color Long Ideas Reiteration Analyst Ratings Tech Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





2017: The State Of Cryptocurrencies (Part 1)

Courtesy of Benzinga.

2017: The State Of Cryptocurrencies Part 1

Bitcoin was trending over the past few weeks after surpassing the $1,000 threshold, hitting an all-time high, and later plummeting 20 percent in just a few hours. While aware of its existence, many readers still don’t know what Bitcoin is exactly, how it works and what cryptocurrencies imply.

So, let’s take a look at cryptocurrencies going into 2017.

The Basics

There are numerous cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin is just the most well known. However, all of them share a few characteristics, including their digital or virtual form, the use of cryptography as a security method, the resulting anonymity of the transactions and their organic nature — which, in theory, makes them immune to government interference.

In addition, all of the big, popular cryptocurrencies share one more characteristic: a limited monetary base with pre-established increases that, over the long term, tend asymptotically to zero.

“What’s interesting [about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies] is that you can use them to buy goods, like fiduciary currencies, like the U.S. dollar or the euro; we use them because they have value,” Nicolás Sandller, blockchain programmer explained.

Going Mainstream

While cryptocurrencies are still questioned by the financial establishment, the technology behind most of them (blockchain, or a decentralized ledger) is making its way to the mainstream. In fact, a couple of weeks ago, the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, or D.T.C.C., a post-trade financial services firm providing clearing and settlement services to a large portion of Wall Street, announced it would replace one of its central databases with new blockchain-based software.

As reported by the New York Times, International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM)…
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Antitrust Opposition Prompts Vetr To Upgrade Rite Aid To Strong Buy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

On Monday, the Vetr crowd upgraded their rating for Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) from 3.5 stars (Buy), issued 23 days ago, to 5 stars (Strong Buy). Crowd sentiment for the stock is unanimously positive, with 100 percent of Vetr user ratings bullish.

Share price in the drugstore chain plummeted by more than a dollar on Friday, after the the planned acquisition by Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ: WBA) hit a snag in the form of an antitrust concern. After a slight bounce back that same day, the stock continued to trend down on Monday, where it finished the day at $6.90.

See how crowdsourced ratings could help you time the markets.

Currently, the Vetr crowd’s average target price is up at $8.59, which is below the average analyst target price of $9.00. Less than 2 percent of Vetr users are holding RAD in their watch lists.

Posted-In: VetrUpgrades Price Target Crowdsourcing Analyst Ratings General





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid

 

Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...



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Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...



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Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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