Archive for 2017

Warren Buffett How Ordinary People Can Invest & Get Profits

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.


Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway

Photo by thetaxhaven

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Howard Marks – Psychology Is The Most Important Discipline In Investing

By The Acquirer’s Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One of our favorite investors at The Acquirer’s Multiple is Howard Marks.

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The Most Important Thing - Howard Marks

One of our favorite memos is one he wrote in January, 1994, where he discusses the most important discipline in investing – psychology. It’s a must read for all investors.

Here’s an excerpt from that memo:

No group or sector in the investment world enjoys as its birthright the promise of consistent high returns.

There is no asset class that will do well simply because of what it is. An example of this is real estate. People said, “You should buy real estate because it’s a hedge against inflation,” and “You should buy real estate because they’re not making any more.” But done at the wrong time, real estate investing didn’t work.

What matters most is not what you invest in, but when and at what price.

There is no such thing as a good or bad investment idea per se. For example, the selection of good companies is certainly not enough to assure good results — see Xerox, Avon, Merck and the rest of the “nifty fifty” in 1974.

Any investment can be good or bad depending on when it’s made and what price is paid. It’s been said that “any bond can be triple-A at a price.”

There is no security that is so good that it can’t be overpriced, or so bad that it can’t be underpriced.

The discipline which is most important in investing is not accounting or economics, but psychology.

The key is who likes the investment now and who doesn’t. Future price changes will be determined by whether it comes to be liked by more people or fewer people in the future.

Investing is a popularity contest, and the most dangerous thing is to buy…
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Watch: Bigoted Turtleneck-Wearing Liberal Gets Tossed Off Plane For Harassing Trump Supporter! [updated]

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

File this under Justice Porn…

A miserable seething bitch and her browbeaten husband are the stars of a new video making it’s way around the internet after the woman, a horrible human being, decided to berate a Trump supporter on an airplane. First, here’s what happened from the guy it happened to:

scott

The first flight attendant to deal with his bigot isn’t having any of her shit:

Attendant #1: “Is there going to be a problem?”

Woman: “There will be, I would like for him to change seats with somebody who did not put us all in harm’s way”

Attendant #1: “Well, you don’t have that right!”

[mic drop, goes to get other flight attendant]

When the second flight attendant breaks the news of her impending ejection, this ivory tower liberal starts throwing her dead mother in law out to try and gain some sympathy:

Woman: “I’m going home now. My mother in law, his mother, died. And we had to be here. I’m going home now, there is no way I’m getting off this plane.”

Attendant #2: “I’m terribly sorry for that, but that does not give you the right to treat people the way you’ve been treating them.

[indignancy intensifies]

Husband: “What if we trade seats and she quiets down? How would that be?”

Attendant #2: “Unfortunately the captain has already made the call…”

DENIED

Enjoy the show: 

Update to potato quality video - Someone sent Milo a perfect view of the carnage. That husband really gave the overhead bin latch what for…

Note the applause…

Note the applause…

nostep





Watch: Bigoted Turtleneck-Wearing Liberal Gets Tossed Off Plane For Harassing Trump Supporter!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

File this under Justice Porn…

A miserable seething bitch and her browbeaten husband are the stars of a new video making it’s way around the internet after the woman, a horrible human being, decided to berate a Trump supporter on an airplane. First, here’s what happened from the guy it happened to:

scott

The first flight attendant to deal with his bigot isn’t having any of her shit:

Attendant #1: “Is there going to be a problem?”

Woman: “There will be, I would like for him to change seats with somebody who did not put us all in harm’s way”

Attendant #1: “Well, you don’t have that right!”

[mic drop, goes to get other flight attendant]

When the second flight attendant breaks the news of her impending ejection, this ivory tower liberal starts throwing her dead mother in law out to try and gain some sympathy:

Woman: “I’m going home now. My mother in law, his mother in law, died. And we had to be here. I’m going home now, there is no way I’m getting off this plane.”

Attendant #2: “I’m terribly sorry for that, but that does not give you the right to treat people the way you’ve been treating them.

[indignancy intensifies]

Husband: “What if we trade seats and she quiets down? How would that be?”

Attendant #2: “Unfortunately the captain has already made the call…”

DENIED

Enjoy the show: 

And a potato quality recording of her actually getting tossed:

Note the applause…

nostep





Treasuries Besieged by ‘Idiot Money’: Record Shorts in Treasuries Paint an Ominous Picture for Bond Bears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As some of you might recall, in December of 2015, I went long treasuries, due to my belief that negative interest rates would wreak havoc across the investment landscape — bringing with it a deflationary vortex that would consume all whole — especially equity holders. For the better part of 2016, this was the single best trade to be in — and I had it before anyone deemed it to be fashionable.

Then the elections came and a gigantic Trump induced squeeze commenced — helping rout bonds and buoy equities in record fashion. Looking back on that rally, it was a fucking month — literally nothing in the big scheme of things. Should bonds rally again, recapturing some of its former glory, no one will remember the faux inflation days of November-January — post Hillary annihilation.

Looking at the bond trade, it’s ripe for a reversion to the mean. After all, the most reprehensible people around, pavement apes and the like, are short bonds. These are the ‘Fast Money’ people — the same lads who bought mortgage bonds in 2007 and dot com hand grenades in the spring of 2000.

Via CFTC:

The amount of speculators’ bearish, or short, positions in

10-year Treasury futures exceeded bullish, or long, positions by

394,689 contracts on Jan. 10, according to the CFTC’s latest

Commitments of Traders data.

A week earlier, speculators held 344,931 net short positions

in 10-year T-note futures.

Net shorts in five-year T-note futures and Eurodollar

futures among speculators also climbed to record highs in the

latest week, while speculative T-bond net shorts rose to their

highest level since March 2012, according to CFTC data.

Net shorts in federal funds futures among speculators rose

to their highest since August 2015.

The rise in net shorts among these futures contracts

suggested this group of market participants believes bond prices

will resume their fall despite their rebound since mid-December.

Juxtaposing short data with actual yield action, proves, in fact, that the shorts are literally pavement apes — idiots devoid of reason — slaves to the basest instincts that require zero thinking. These are horrible people.

IMG_6188

IMG_6189

Yields on the 5 year treasury have doubled since our glorious leader, Donald J. Trump,


continue reading





Weekly Market Recap Jan 22, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

This rally is getting long in the tooth so simply from a duration standpoint some caution is merited. There are other reasons which we will outline later. That said this particular week was a quiet group of sessions with mild gains and losses mixed in; the market was closed on Monday. Earnings were the focus of the week as was the Trump speech Friday where investors may begin to start pivoting off hope for everything to be perfect, and start looking at the reality of Washington D.C. doing Washington D.C. things. Even with 1 party controlling both major branches.

Overseas, the European Central Bank, as expected, left interest rates unchanged Thursday. The decision was expected after the ECB last month decided to extend its bond buying program through the end of 2017. ECB head Mario Draghi said there was “no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation” adding the central bank was ready to expand its quantitative-easing program if needed. His comments pushed the euro and the yen lower against the dollar.

On the economic front, the consumer-price index, a widely watched gauge of inflationary pressure, showed price growth accelerated in 2016 at the fastest pace since 2011. In December, the index rose 0.3%. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, prices rose 0.2%.

This was another week “Dow 20K” was not attained; and in fact we might have just seen a bearish double top.

djia

Here is a 5 day “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 via Doug Short.

SPX-five-day

Chuck E. Cheese is going public later this year!

The parent of Chuck E. Cheese has begun preparations for an initial public offering (IPO) that could value the U.S. restaurant chain at more than $1 billion, including debt, people familiar with the situation said on Tuesday. // // // The IPO would be a bet that Irving, Texas-based Chuck E. Cheese’s arcade games and kid-focused activities will differentiate it in the minds of investors from other more commoditized restaurant chains that have failed to whet


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Everything Is Awesome!

Courtesy of Mish.

The market is pricing in a lot of “Everything is Awesome”. Reader Jason Leach, CFA, asks “Is all this awesomeness, real or fantasy? Has it been pulled forward?

Pulling Awesome Forward

What follows is a guest post from Jason B. Leach of Fusion Point Capital. His title is Pulling Awesome Forward.

awesome1

U.S. markets have “celebrated” the Trump election, with the S&P 500 rising ~8% after a quick ~4% drop pre-election (and much deeper drop in futures the night of the election). There are quite a number of themes, positive and negative, continuing into the new year from 2016. The “positives” – infrastructure spend, tax reform, healthcare reform, and deregulation – have built a relentless bid, or scared off sellers…for the time being.

awesome2

The “negatives” – dollar strength, dollar scarcity, global debt bubble, Fed divergence, stress in European and Chinese banks, Yuan devaluation, rising populism in Europe (with French, Italian, German elections around the corner), low but rising probability of Euro-Exits, protectionist leanings (Smoot-Hawley tariffs contributed to a 66% decline in global trade from 1929-1934), and U.S. equity valuations at the third highest level ever (median stock on the S&P 500 at 98th percentile, and the all-time highest valuation for the index when including the enormous amount of corporate debt growth over the past decade) – are relegated to the dark recesses of pre-election…pre-light.

awesome3

There are myriad estimates of what Trump’s policies could add to GDP and thus corporate earnings. If these policies are well thought out and passed quickly, no doubt there will be boosts. But, and there are several big “buts” here, with the current state of divisiveness, every issue is “third rail” and unless Republicans are willing to use the nuclear option (reconciliation where simple majority passes in the Senate) like a tactical weapon (i.e., repeatedly), the “positives” being pulled forward into today’s market pricing may take many more moons than anticipated. And, as detailed in iterations of Trillion Dollar Sam, these deep structural problems are decades in the making and will require more than outpatient Trump surgery in the first 100 days to rectify.                                            awesome4


Continue reading here…





The ‘Strong Buy’ Case In Facebook: WhatsApp, Instagram And More

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The 'Strong Buy' Case In Facebook: WhatsApp, Instagram And More

Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Financial reiterated his Strong Buy rating on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) saying that monetization of mobile, video, Whatsapp and Instagram are strong future catalysts for the stock.

“Ad revenue growth (even at a slower pace) in conjunction with, ongoing investment and development in key growth initiatives as well as in applications will continue to drive strong Business Performance, greater cash flow and increasing return on capital,” Feinseth wrote in a note.

For the quarter ending September 2016, revenue increased 55 percent to $24.7 billion and the analyst estimate this to increasing over 38 percent in the next 12 months to $34.2 billion.

Feinseth is of the view that Facebook’s cautious outlook would prove to be conservative and believes Facebook can maintain above average growth rates and margins despite lower contribution from ad loads.

In addition, the analyst expects artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual reality as the next leg of growth for Facebook. Especially, AI would help Facebook’s clients to better target consumers as spending on digital ads is set to surpass TV ads this year.

At last check, shares of Facebook rose 1.20 percent to $128.57.

Latest Ratings for FB

Date Firm Action From To
Jan 2017 Pacific Crest Reinstates Overweight
Jan 2017 Raymond James Upgrades Outperform Strong Buy
Jan 2017 Aegis Capital Initiates Coverage On Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for FB


View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Ivan Feinseth Tigress FinancialAnalyst Color Long Ideas Reiteration Analyst Ratings Tech Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





2017: The State Of Cryptocurrencies (Part 1)

Courtesy of Benzinga.

2017: The State Of Cryptocurrencies Part 1

Bitcoin was trending over the past few weeks after surpassing the $1,000 threshold, hitting an all-time high, and later plummeting 20 percent in just a few hours. While aware of its existence, many readers still don’t know what Bitcoin is exactly, how it works and what cryptocurrencies imply.

So, let’s take a look at cryptocurrencies going into 2017.

The Basics

There are numerous cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin is just the most well known. However, all of them share a few characteristics, including their digital or virtual form, the use of cryptography as a security method, the resulting anonymity of the transactions and their organic nature — which, in theory, makes them immune to government interference.

In addition, all of the big, popular cryptocurrencies share one more characteristic: a limited monetary base with pre-established increases that, over the long term, tend asymptotically to zero.

“What’s interesting [about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies] is that you can use them to buy goods, like fiduciary currencies, like the U.S. dollar or the euro; we use them because they have value,” Nicolás Sandller, blockchain programmer explained.

Going Mainstream

While cryptocurrencies are still questioned by the financial establishment, the technology behind most of them (blockchain, or a decentralized ledger) is making its way to the mainstream. In fact, a couple of weeks ago, the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, or D.T.C.C., a post-trade financial services firm providing clearing and settlement services to a large portion of Wall Street, announced it would replace one of its central databases with new blockchain-based software.

As reported by the New York Times, International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM)…
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Antitrust Opposition Prompts Vetr To Upgrade Rite Aid To Strong Buy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

On Monday, the Vetr crowd upgraded their rating for Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE: RAD) from 3.5 stars (Buy), issued 23 days ago, to 5 stars (Strong Buy). Crowd sentiment for the stock is unanimously positive, with 100 percent of Vetr user ratings bullish.

Share price in the drugstore chain plummeted by more than a dollar on Friday, after the the planned acquisition by Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ: WBA) hit a snag in the form of an antitrust concern. After a slight bounce back that same day, the stock continued to trend down on Monday, where it finished the day at $6.90.

See how crowdsourced ratings could help you time the markets.

Currently, the Vetr crowd’s average target price is up at $8.59, which is below the average analyst target price of $9.00. Less than 2 percent of Vetr users are holding RAD in their watch lists.

Posted-In: VetrUpgrades Price Target Crowdsourcing Analyst Ratings General





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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