Archive for 2017

Warren Buffett – Form GOOD HABITS & Become UNSTOPPABLE

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Published on Aug 25, 2017

Warren Buffett on the importance of building habits –

Form good habits early on.. “and you can’t miss”

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“We’re Back In The ’60s Again” – Bomb-Shelter Sales Are Booming In The US And Japan

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

US-based bomb-shelter manufacturers should maybe think about buying Kim Jong Un a fruit basket.

According to McClatchy, sales have in both the US and Japan have risen dramatically this year as President Donald Trump and Kim have exchanged threats of nuclear annihilation. US and Japanese defense officials now believe the North is in possession of a nuclear warhead small enough to fit onto one of its ICBMS. The isolated country launched three short-range missiles into the East Sea Friday night – its first missile test in nearly a month – after US officials had praised Kim’s restraint earlier in the week.

Ron Hubbard, president of Atlas Survival Shelters, a firm based in Montebello, California, said he expects to sell 1,000 shelters this year at a price of $25,000 apiece, according to McClatchy.

"Sales and inquiries have spiked, according to several of the U.S. companies that make money from doomsday fears.

“The increase in demand is everywhere. We are getting hundreds of calls,” said Ron Hubbard, president of Atlas Survival Shelters, a firm based in Montebello, California. Inquiries have slowed down as tensions have eased over the last week, but Hubbard said he still expects to have a banner year, selling 1,000 shelters at an average price of $25,000 each.”

Sales in Japan have increased to the point where one manufacturer is opening a sales office in Osaka.  

“Hubbard reports there is intensified demand in Japan, where he has opened a sales office in Osaka. He’s also opening a new 400,000-square-foot plant in Dallas, largely to serve the Japanese market.

“We are back in the 1960s again,” said Hubbard, referring to the Cold War demand for bomb shelters. “We’ve got a crazy man on one side and Donald Trump on the other.”

Gary Lynch, general manager of Rising S Shelters in Murchison, Texas, has also seen a rise in demand for his products both in Japan and the US.

“'It is all due to the rhetoric on what is going on in North Korea,’ said Lynch, who said he has sold 67 bomb shelters internationally this year, mostly to

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Trump Rant of the Day: “I want tariffs. Bring me some tariffs!”

Courtesy of Mish.

Trump is fed up with inaction against China.

In an Oval Office meeting, Trump demanded Bring Me Some Tariffs!

The meeting was attended by Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, senior trade adviser Peter Navarro, top economic adviser Gary Cohn, and Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon.

The following is a rare account of President Trump in a small Oval Office meeting, venting at senior staff for sometimes resisting his hawkish trade agenda.

This account — confirmed by sources with knowledge of the meeting and undisputed by the White House — hints at where Trump may be heading with his trade agenda. And it shows he believes some of his top economic advisors are resisting his agenda because they are “globalists.”

Trump, addressing Kelly, said, “John, you haven’t been in a trade discussion before, so I want to share with you my views. For the last six months, this same group of geniuses comes in here all the time and I tell them, ‘Tariffs. I want tariffs.’ And what do they do? They bring me IP. I can’t put a tariff on IP.” (Most in the room understood that the president can, in fact, use tariffs to combat Chinese IP theft.)

“China is laughing at us,” Trump added. “Laughing.”

Kelly responded: “Yes sir, I understand, you want tariffs.”

Gary Cohn, who opposes tariffs and the protectionist trade measures pushed by the Bannonites, had his shoulders slumped and was clearly appalled by the situation.

Staff secretary Rob Porter, who is a key mediator in such meetings, said to the president: “Sir, do you not want to sign this?” He was referring to Trump’s memo prodding Lighthizer to investigate China — which may lead to tariffs against Beijing.

Trump replied: “No, I’ll sign it, but it’s not what I’ve asked for the last six months.” He turned to Kelly: “So, John, I want you to know, this is my view. I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs.”

Kelly replied: “Yes sir, understood sir, I have it.”

At one point in the meeting, Navarro pulled out a foam board chart. Trump didn’t pay attention to it, saying “I don’t even know what I’m looking at here.”

Trump made sure the meeting ended with no confusion as to what he wanted.

“John, let me

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Weekly Market Recap Aug 27, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

It was a quiet week aside from Tuesday which saw a nearly 1% jump in the S&P 500 – but not necessarily a win for the bulls (yet).   Much like on an upward move you want to see periods of consolidation to rest and consolidate; we are in a near term downward move and one could say this rally was a bit of a rest and consolidation.  Bulls still have work to do.  Monday and Friday showed mild gains, while Wednesday and Thursday showed mild losses; almost all of the week’s movement was based on Tuesday.   Tuesday’s rally seemed to be linked to a Politico report that President Donald Trump’s top aides and congressional leaders are making progress on shaping a tax-reform plan.   The central bank speeches late in the week were non events.  The S&P 500 added 0.7% and the NASDAQ 0.8%.

Sam Stovall is leaning bearish:

“Even though the S&P 500 is currently only 2.2% below its Aug. 7 all-time high, the market’s current technical action points to the possibility of a decline of deeper proportions,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.  Stovall said the erosion in price momentum of the cyclical sectors, such as technology and financials that had been leading the recent rally, have been adding to the downbeat sentiment.

The market doesn’t “care” about this sort of thing until a selloff happens but just as an FYI to our readership:

Forward multiple or price-to-earnings ratio, a measure of equity values, of the S&P 500 are at 17.4 times, representing the highest level in more than a decade, according to FactSet.

Among reasons for caution aside from some weakness in the index charts is the transports below their 200 day moving average for the first time since last summer.

Interesting positive action in copper and emerging markets however!

Economic news was sparse (durable goods) and not of interest to markets.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 .. via Jill Mislinski.

Here are the 25 websites with the
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The major systems our society relies on are failing

By PeakProsperity. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The ever-eloquent James Howard Kunstler returns to our podcast this week to discuss the dangers of the ‘comprehensive dishonesty’ he observes in our culture today.

We occupy ourselves with distractions (e.g., the fear du jour that our media continually manufactures) and diversions (e.g., our empty social media addiction), while ignoring the erosion of the essential systems around us. Making matters worse, the leaders we assume are focusing on these issues aren’t or are woefully out of their depth.

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It’s time for society to take a hard look in the mirror and be honest about the shortcoming it sees. Identifying them then opens the door to deciding what to do about them.

Without the courage to be honest, we condemn ourselves to a failing status quo that likely has little remaining time left:

What we’re seeing is the result of behavior of people who have no idea what they’re doing. Most of the major systems that we rely on are entering a state of failure of one kind or another. And, of course, the larger problem is that they’re interlinked, and that their failures will be mutual and self-amplifying.

These systems include the energy system that has powered industrial civilization, the oil and gas industries which you’ve talked about a lot and I think that our listeners understand pretty well — although the finer points of it, like the ‘energy return on investment’, is something that’s certainly not understood by the general public, or most of the officers in our government, and certainly not in the New York Times, Washington Post or other major media outlets. They just don’t get that.

That energy problem is reverberating through everything, including agriculture and our inability

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Uber Selects Expedia Chief Dara Khosrowshahi As Its Next CEO

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just nine hours after Jeff Immelt tweeted that he was no longer in the race to be Uber's next CEO, moments ago Uber's board selected Expedia CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, 48, various news outlets report. According to Recode, the board selected the "third candidate", one who was not only an unknown until now, but one who as the photo below shows, is also not a woman despite his beguiling first name and the board's rumored prerogative to pick a female next leader.

Dara Khosrowshahi, current CEO of Expedia

In a statement, a spokesperson said: “The Board has voted and will announce the decision to the employees first.”  If he accepts, he would be replacing founder Travis Kalanick and interim CEO Ariana Huffington.

The decision appears to have stumped everyone, including Recode's Kara Swisher who writes that "what that means is anyone’s guess, and sources close to one of the remaining possible CEO picks — Hewlett Packard Enterprise CEO Meg Whitman — said she has not been informed of any choice nor had the board agreed to some the the things she was asking for to take the job. Whitman was asking for a number of things, including less involvement of ousted CEO Travis Kalanick."

As the NYT adds, Jeff Immelt, a finalst until this morning, withdrew when it became clear that he did not enough have support. And while the board was leaning toward Meg Whitman, the chief of Hewlett Packard Enterprise, "matters changed over the course of Sunday afternoon and the board decided on Mr. Khosrowshahi."

While not much is known about Dara Khosrowshahi, and why the board thinks the Expedia chief can successfully replace Travis Kalanick as head of the world's most valuable private company, what is known is that under Khosrowshahi, Expedia was one of the first tech companies to file a legal challenge against Trump's travel ban, citing the potential harm it could do its employees and customers. As such, the Iranian-American appears to be high on the #resistance totem. His anti-Trump bias was further exposed in his year end note to employees, in which he said he wants to send "just a big thank you to our global employee base for

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Trump Reportedly Slams Administration’s Globalists, Demands “Bring Me China Tariffs”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It appears Goldman and the Globalist gang in The White House may have less power and influence than assumed in the absence of Steve Bannon. In what could be one of the most comprehensive (and easily traced) leaks from within Trump's administration, Axios reports details of a small Oval Office meeting with Trump raging at senior staff as they push back against his hawkish trade war position.

Seemingly frustrated at his senior staff's efforts to wage economic war against China, Trump lashed out at his new Chief of Staff General Kelly:

 "John, you haven't been in a trade discussion before, so I want to share with you my views. For the last six months, this same group of geniuses comes in here all the time and I tell them…

'Tariffs. I want tariffs.' And what do they do? They bring me IP. I can't put a tariff on IP."

Axios, who confirm this account by sources with knowledge of the meeting and undisputed by the White House, explain in great detail, that Gary Cohn, a globalist who opposes tariffs and the protectionist trade measures pushed by the nationalist Bannonites, had his shoulders slumped and was clearly appalled by the situation.

 Trump added…

"China is laughing at us,… Laughing."

"John, I want you to know, this is my view. I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs."

With seeming intimate knowledge of the transcript and actions within the meeting, Axios then describes how senior trade advisor Peter Navarro tried to rescue the situation, only to be rebuked by the president…"I don't even know what I'm looking at here."

However, it is Axios' quoted conclusion of the meeting that raises the most eyebrows about just where the power and influence really remains in The White house…

"John, let me tell you why they didn't bring me any tariffs," he said.

"I know there are some people in the room right now that are upset. I know there are some globalists in the room right now. And they don't want them, John, they don't want

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FX Week Ahead – Fast Money Algos Stretch The Limits Again, Time For Redress

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA from

FX Week Ahead – Fast money algos stretch the limits again, time for redress

A common feature of the currency markets these days is to push the established themes and narratives as far they can be, and at a time when the USD is suffering on all fronts, fast money accounts are using thin market conditions to their advantage.  Friday's price action emphasised this completely, as all it took was the absence of policy talk from Fed chair Yellen at Jackson Hole to set off another hit on the USD, pushing the index (DXY) back to the recent lows.  

Naturally, EUR/USD has been leading the way, and for all the talk that the market has overrun the response to the unavoidable adjustment in current ECB policy measures to come, we continue to push higher again with an unrelenting quest to get to 1.2000.  When the ECB minutes revealed the governing council's view on the FX 'overshoot'. we saw a sharp hit down to 1.1660, but since then, the bid tone has been strong as ever.  We hit levels a little shy of 1.1940 late Friday, with president Draghi also refusing to speak on matters policy or market related.   

Will we see 1.2000 next week?  More to the point; would we stay up here for long? Yield differentials have seen little change in recent weeks, with Bunds and Treasuries moving largely in tandem of late, largely to the broader challenges on risk sentiment

Elsewhere, we saw USD/JPY pulled back towards 109.00 again, but there is a clear reluctance to push back into the mid 108.00's given the strong demand seen here.  We continue to see the tight correlations with equities here, but despite concurring with the view that stocks are vastly overpriced, yield seekers will buy the dip here as they do on the Dow and S&P.  

However, irrespective of what the central bankers say or don't say, we can focus on the data next week, with a plethora of US stats to work through.  The odds of another hike in the Fed funds rate this year have

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Hurricane Harvey Heading To Texas, How Will It Impact Oil?

By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hurricane Harvey heading to Texas, how will it impact oil?

UPDATE: 8/27/17: 7:365p EST hurricane Harvey has hit Houston as a Category 4 storm and the scenes look apocalyptic. The Mayor had decided not to evacuate  the city amid fears millions would get tuck and swept away while on the  road, but 50 inches of rain have hit the city and many are stuck indoors as the rains reach levels which threatens their lives.

A picture is worth a thousand words , below are some shocking and inspirational ones.


Heroes converging in #Houston#houstonflood #HurricaneHarvey

— Austin Kellerman (@AustinKellerman) August 27, 2017

Armada of private boats rescuing hundreds in heavily flooded Dickinson TX @KHOU @wfaachannel8

— Kevin Reece (@KevinReeceWFAA) August 27, 2017

Extraordinary photo shows Harris County Sheriff’s deputy rescuing two children from high floodwaters in Cypress, TX

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) August 27, 2017

15 people rescued from flooded assisted living facility | Free News | The Daily News

— ValueWalk (@valuewalk) August 27, 2017

Before & After view of downtown Houston in 24 hours. #HurricaneHarvery #houstonflooding #houston @CNN @FoxNews @abc13houston @zerohedge

— Chris Tycksen (@Ctycksen) August 27, 2017

If you need any hope during the #Houston flooding, watch this. Help is on the way. National Guard convoy just rolled through town @CBSDFW

— Jeff Paul (@Jeff_Journalist) August 27, 2017

Hurricane Harvey, the most severe storm to hit the Gulf Coast for nearly a decade, is expected to make landfall tonight near Corpus Christi in Texas. The hurricane is projected to register as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, making it the strongest storm to hit Texas-Louisiana since 2008 (Category 2: Ike, Gustav) or 2005 (Category 3: Rita, Katrina).

According to weather forecasts, a combination of very low…
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Why Decentralized Militias Matter

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Chris Calton via The Mises Institute,

In 1852, Abraham Lincoln gave a speech in Springfield, Illinois in which he talked about the attempts at required militia training. He described how much of a joke the citizens made of any attempt at mandatory militia training.

“No man,” Lincoln said, citing the rules, “is to wear more than five pounds of cod-fish for epaulets, or more than thirty yards of bologna sausages for a sash; and no two men are to dress alike, and if any two should dress alike the one that dresses most alike is to be fined.”

He also described the militia figure of “our friend Gordon Abrams” at a militia training, “on horse-back . . . with a pine wood sword, about nine feet long, and a paste-board cocked hat, from front to rear about the length of an ox yoke, and very much the shape of one turned bottom upwards."

Lincoln was attempting to ridicule the dismissive attitudes of his fellow Illinoisans toward compulsory militia training. The conventional wisdom in military theory is that, for effective defense, the military must be centralized and continually maintained in the form of a compulsory standing army. Even from supposed “small government” advocates, this notion is never contested. However, the evidence from the time suggests that had it not been for the decentralized and voluntary militia system, Lincoln himself may have had significantly more trouble at the beginning of the Civil War.

During the Jacksonian era, the militia system in the states shifted largely from a compulsory to a voluntary system. Because of this, the Mexican War was first war fought by the United States that did not require a draft (the Civil War drafts are often cited as the first cases of conscription in the United States, but this ignores conscription administered by the states that took place during the Revolutionary War and War of 1812). During the Mexican War, roughly 50,000 troops were raised, all of whom enlisted without any compulsory measures.

When Lincoln started to mobilize troops against the Confederate States, he called 75,000 men. Not only was this number larger than that of the Mexican War, the Southern states had previously provided a

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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons


Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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