Archive for 2017

Warren Buffett – Form GOOD HABITS & Become UNSTOPPABLE

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Published on Aug 25, 2017

Warren Buffett on the importance of building habits –

Form good habits early on.. “and you can’t miss”

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“We’re Back In The ’60s Again” – Bomb-Shelter Sales Are Booming In The US And Japan

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

US-based bomb-shelter manufacturers should maybe think about buying Kim Jong Un a fruit basket.

According to McClatchy, sales have in both the US and Japan have risen dramatically this year as President Donald Trump and Kim have exchanged threats of nuclear annihilation. US and Japanese defense officials now believe the North is in possession of a nuclear warhead small enough to fit onto one of its ICBMS. The isolated country launched three short-range missiles into the East Sea Friday night – its first missile test in nearly a month – after US officials had praised Kim’s restraint earlier in the week.

Ron Hubbard, president of Atlas Survival Shelters, a firm based in Montebello, California, said he expects to sell 1,000 shelters this year at a price of $25,000 apiece, according to McClatchy.

"Sales and inquiries have spiked, according to several of the U.S. companies that make money from doomsday fears.

“The increase in demand is everywhere. We are getting hundreds of calls,” said Ron Hubbard, president of Atlas Survival Shelters, a firm based in Montebello, California. Inquiries have slowed down as tensions have eased over the last week, but Hubbard said he still expects to have a banner year, selling 1,000 shelters at an average price of $25,000 each.”

Sales in Japan have increased to the point where one manufacturer is opening a sales office in Osaka.  

“Hubbard reports there is intensified demand in Japan, where he has opened a sales office in Osaka. He’s also opening a new 400,000-square-foot plant in Dallas, largely to serve the Japanese market.

“We are back in the 1960s again,” said Hubbard, referring to the Cold War demand for bomb shelters. “We’ve got a crazy man on one side and Donald Trump on the other.”

Gary Lynch, general manager of Rising S Shelters in Murchison, Texas, has also seen a rise in demand for his products both in Japan and the US.

“'It is all due to the rhetoric on what is going on in North Korea,’ said Lynch, who said he has sold 67 bomb shelters internationally this year, mostly to


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Trump Rant of the Day: “I want tariffs. Bring me some tariffs!”

Courtesy of Mish.

Trump is fed up with inaction against China.

In an Oval Office meeting, Trump demanded Bring Me Some Tariffs!

The meeting was attended by Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, senior trade adviser Peter Navarro, top economic adviser Gary Cohn, and Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon.

The following is a rare account of President Trump in a small Oval Office meeting, venting at senior staff for sometimes resisting his hawkish trade agenda.

This account — confirmed by sources with knowledge of the meeting and undisputed by the White House — hints at where Trump may be heading with his trade agenda. And it shows he believes some of his top economic advisors are resisting his agenda because they are “globalists.”

Trump, addressing Kelly, said, “John, you haven’t been in a trade discussion before, so I want to share with you my views. For the last six months, this same group of geniuses comes in here all the time and I tell them, ‘Tariffs. I want tariffs.’ And what do they do? They bring me IP. I can’t put a tariff on IP.” (Most in the room understood that the president can, in fact, use tariffs to combat Chinese IP theft.)

“China is laughing at us,” Trump added. “Laughing.”

Kelly responded: “Yes sir, I understand, you want tariffs.”

Gary Cohn, who opposes tariffs and the protectionist trade measures pushed by the Bannonites, had his shoulders slumped and was clearly appalled by the situation.

Staff secretary Rob Porter, who is a key mediator in such meetings, said to the president: “Sir, do you not want to sign this?” He was referring to Trump’s memo prodding Lighthizer to investigate China — which may lead to tariffs against Beijing.

Trump replied: “No, I’ll sign it, but it’s not what I’ve asked for the last six months.” He turned to Kelly: “So, John, I want you to know, this is my view. I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs.”

Kelly replied: “Yes sir, understood sir, I have it.”

At one point in the meeting, Navarro pulled out a foam board chart. Trump didn’t pay attention to it, saying “I don’t even know what I’m looking at here.”

Trump made sure the meeting ended with no confusion as to what he wanted.

“John, let me


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Weekly Market Recap Aug 27, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

It was a quiet week aside from Tuesday which saw a nearly 1% jump in the S&P 500 – but not necessarily a win for the bulls (yet).   Much like on an upward move you want to see periods of consolidation to rest and consolidate; we are in a near term downward move and one could say this rally was a bit of a rest and consolidation.  Bulls still have work to do.  Monday and Friday showed mild gains, while Wednesday and Thursday showed mild losses; almost all of the week’s movement was based on Tuesday.   Tuesday’s rally seemed to be linked to a Politico report that President Donald Trump’s top aides and congressional leaders are making progress on shaping a tax-reform plan.   The central bank speeches late in the week were non events.  The S&P 500 added 0.7% and the NASDAQ 0.8%.

Sam Stovall is leaning bearish:

“Even though the S&P 500 is currently only 2.2% below its Aug. 7 all-time high, the market’s current technical action points to the possibility of a decline of deeper proportions,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.  Stovall said the erosion in price momentum of the cyclical sectors, such as technology and financials that had been leading the recent rally, have been adding to the downbeat sentiment.

The market doesn’t “care” about this sort of thing until a selloff happens but just as an FYI to our readership:

Forward multiple or price-to-earnings ratio, a measure of equity values, of the S&P 500 are at 17.4 times, representing the highest level in more than a decade, according to FactSet.

Among reasons for caution aside from some weakness in the index charts is the transports below their 200 day moving average for the first time since last summer.

Interesting positive action in copper and emerging markets however!

Economic news was sparse (durable goods) and not of interest to markets.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 .. via Jill Mislinski.

Here are the 25 websites with the
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The major systems our society relies on are failing

By PeakProsperity. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The ever-eloquent James Howard Kunstler returns to our podcast this week to discuss the dangers of the ‘comprehensive dishonesty’ he observes in our culture today.

We occupy ourselves with distractions (e.g., the fear du jour that our media continually manufactures) and diversions (e.g., our empty social media addiction), while ignoring the erosion of the essential systems around us. Making matters worse, the leaders we assume are focusing on these issues aren’t or are woefully out of their depth.

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Apocalypse

geralt / Pixabay

It’s time for society to take a hard look in the mirror and be honest about the shortcoming it sees. Identifying them then opens the door to deciding what to do about them.

Without the courage to be honest, we condemn ourselves to a failing status quo that likely has little remaining time left:

What we’re seeing is the result of behavior of people who have no idea what they’re doing. Most of the major systems that we rely on are entering a state of failure of one kind or another. And, of course, the larger problem is that they’re interlinked, and that their failures will be mutual and self-amplifying.

These systems include the energy system that has powered industrial civilization, the oil and gas industries which you’ve talked about a lot and I think that our listeners understand pretty well — although the finer points of it, like the ‘energy return on investment’, is something that’s certainly not understood by the general public, or most of the officers in our government, and certainly not in the New York Times, Washington Post or other major media outlets. They just don’t get that.

That energy problem is reverberating through everything, including agriculture and our inability


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Uber Selects Expedia Chief Dara Khosrowshahi As Its Next CEO

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just nine hours after Jeff Immelt tweeted that he was no longer in the race to be Uber's next CEO, moments ago Uber's board selected Expedia CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, 48, various news outlets report. According to Recode, the board selected the "third candidate", one who was not only an unknown until now, but one who as the photo below shows, is also not a woman despite his beguiling first name and the board's rumored prerogative to pick a female next leader.

Dara Khosrowshahi, current CEO of Expedia

In a statement, a spokesperson said: “The Board has voted and will announce the decision to the employees first.”  If he accepts, he would be replacing founder Travis Kalanick and interim CEO Ariana Huffington.

The decision appears to have stumped everyone, including Recode's Kara Swisher who writes that "what that means is anyone’s guess, and sources close to one of the remaining possible CEO picks — Hewlett Packard Enterprise CEO Meg Whitman — said she has not been informed of any choice nor had the board agreed to some the the things she was asking for to take the job. Whitman was asking for a number of things, including less involvement of ousted CEO Travis Kalanick."

As the NYT adds, Jeff Immelt, a finalst until this morning, withdrew when it became clear that he did not enough have support. And while the board was leaning toward Meg Whitman, the chief of Hewlett Packard Enterprise, "matters changed over the course of Sunday afternoon and the board decided on Mr. Khosrowshahi."

While not much is known about Dara Khosrowshahi, and why the board thinks the Expedia chief can successfully replace Travis Kalanick as head of the world's most valuable private company, what is known is that under Khosrowshahi, Expedia was one of the first tech companies to file a legal challenge against Trump's travel ban, citing the potential harm it could do its employees and customers. As such, the Iranian-American appears to be high on the #resistance totem. His anti-Trump bias was further exposed in his year end note to employees, in which he said he wants to send "just a big thank you to our global employee base for


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Trump Reportedly Slams Administration’s Globalists, Demands “Bring Me China Tariffs”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It appears Goldman and the Globalist gang in The White House may have less power and influence than assumed in the absence of Steve Bannon. In what could be one of the most comprehensive (and easily traced) leaks from within Trump's administration, Axios reports details of a small Oval Office meeting with Trump raging at senior staff as they push back against his hawkish trade war position.

Seemingly frustrated at his senior staff's efforts to wage economic war against China, Trump lashed out at his new Chief of Staff General Kelly:

 "John, you haven't been in a trade discussion before, so I want to share with you my views. For the last six months, this same group of geniuses comes in here all the time and I tell them…

'Tariffs. I want tariffs.' And what do they do? They bring me IP. I can't put a tariff on IP."

Axios, who confirm this account by sources with knowledge of the meeting and undisputed by the White House, explain in great detail, that Gary Cohn, a globalist who opposes tariffs and the protectionist trade measures pushed by the nationalist Bannonites, had his shoulders slumped and was clearly appalled by the situation.

 Trump added…

"China is laughing at us,… Laughing."

"John, I want you to know, this is my view. I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs."

With seeming intimate knowledge of the transcript and actions within the meeting, Axios then describes how senior trade advisor Peter Navarro tried to rescue the situation, only to be rebuked by the president…"I don't even know what I'm looking at here."

However, it is Axios' quoted conclusion of the meeting that raises the most eyebrows about just where the power and influence really remains in The White house…

"John, let me tell you why they didn't bring me any tariffs," he said.

"I know there are some people in the room right now that are upset. I know there are some globalists in the room right now. And they don't want them, John, they don't want


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FX Week Ahead – Fast Money Algos Stretch The Limits Again, Time For Redress

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA from fxdaily.co.uk

FX Week Ahead – Fast money algos stretch the limits again, time for redress

A common feature of the currency markets these days is to push the established themes and narratives as far they can be, and at a time when the USD is suffering on all fronts, fast money accounts are using thin market conditions to their advantage.  Friday's price action emphasised this completely, as all it took was the absence of policy talk from Fed chair Yellen at Jackson Hole to set off another hit on the USD, pushing the index (DXY) back to the recent lows.  

Naturally, EUR/USD has been leading the way, and for all the talk that the market has overrun the response to the unavoidable adjustment in current ECB policy measures to come, we continue to push higher again with an unrelenting quest to get to 1.2000.  When the ECB minutes revealed the governing council's view on the FX 'overshoot'. we saw a sharp hit down to 1.1660, but since then, the bid tone has been strong as ever.  We hit levels a little shy of 1.1940 late Friday, with president Draghi also refusing to speak on matters policy or market related.   

Will we see 1.2000 next week?  More to the point; would we stay up here for long? Yield differentials have seen little change in recent weeks, with Bunds and Treasuries moving largely in tandem of late, largely to the broader challenges on risk sentiment

Elsewhere, we saw USD/JPY pulled back towards 109.00 again, but there is a clear reluctance to push back into the mid 108.00's given the strong demand seen here.  We continue to see the tight correlations with equities here, but despite concurring with the view that stocks are vastly overpriced, yield seekers will buy the dip here as they do on the Dow and S&P.  

However, irrespective of what the central bankers say or don't say, we can focus on the data next week, with a plethora of US stats to work through.  The odds of another hike in the Fed funds rate this year have


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Hurricane Harvey Heading To Texas, How Will It Impact Oil?

By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Hurricane Harvey heading to Texas, how will it impact oil?

UPDATE: 8/27/17: 7:365p EST hurricane Harvey has hit Houston as a Category 4 storm and the scenes look apocalyptic. The Mayor had decided not to evacuate  the city amid fears millions would get tuck and swept away while on the  road, but 50 inches of rain have hit the city and many are stuck indoors as the rains reach levels which threatens their lives.

A picture is worth a thousand words , below are some shocking and inspirational ones.

‘GOING TO SAVE SOME LIVES’

Heroes converging in #Houston#houstonflood #HurricaneHarvey pic.twitter.com/052ObBBrpx

— Austin Kellerman (@AustinKellerman) August 27, 2017

Armada of private boats rescuing hundreds in heavily flooded Dickinson TX @KHOU @wfaachannel8 pic.twitter.com/MZP7oRyBuD

— Kevin Reece (@KevinReeceWFAA) August 27, 2017

Extraordinary photo shows Harris County Sheriff’s deputy rescuing two children from high floodwaters in Cypress, TX https://t.co/AC1yFnuJKv pic.twitter.com/L3sbmelLX9

— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) August 27, 2017

15 people rescued from flooded assisted living facility | Free News | The Daily News https://t.co/uNV4y4xpXz

— ValueWalk (@valuewalk) August 27, 2017

Before & After view of downtown Houston in 24 hours. #HurricaneHarvery #houstonflooding #houston @CNN @FoxNews @abc13houston @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/vIczOloWQF

— Chris Tycksen (@Ctycksen) August 27, 2017

If you need any hope during the #Houston flooding, watch this. Help is on the way. National Guard convoy just rolled through town @CBSDFW pic.twitter.com/Z4kDpI5nsL

— Jeff Paul (@Jeff_Journalist) August 27, 2017

Hurricane Harvey, the most severe storm to hit the Gulf Coast for nearly a decade, is expected to make landfall tonight near Corpus Christi in Texas. The hurricane is projected to register as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, making it the strongest storm to hit Texas-Louisiana since 2008 (Category 2: Ike, Gustav) or 2005 (Category 3: Rita, Katrina).

According to weather forecasts, a combination of very low…
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Why Decentralized Militias Matter

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Chris Calton via The Mises Institute,

In 1852, Abraham Lincoln gave a speech in Springfield, Illinois in which he talked about the attempts at required militia training. He described how much of a joke the citizens made of any attempt at mandatory militia training.

“No man,” Lincoln said, citing the rules, “is to wear more than five pounds of cod-fish for epaulets, or more than thirty yards of bologna sausages for a sash; and no two men are to dress alike, and if any two should dress alike the one that dresses most alike is to be fined.”

He also described the militia figure of “our friend Gordon Abrams” at a militia training, “on horse-back . . . with a pine wood sword, about nine feet long, and a paste-board cocked hat, from front to rear about the length of an ox yoke, and very much the shape of one turned bottom upwards."

Lincoln was attempting to ridicule the dismissive attitudes of his fellow Illinoisans toward compulsory militia training. The conventional wisdom in military theory is that, for effective defense, the military must be centralized and continually maintained in the form of a compulsory standing army. Even from supposed “small government” advocates, this notion is never contested. However, the evidence from the time suggests that had it not been for the decentralized and voluntary militia system, Lincoln himself may have had significantly more trouble at the beginning of the Civil War.

During the Jacksonian era, the militia system in the states shifted largely from a compulsory to a voluntary system. Because of this, the Mexican War was first war fought by the United States that did not require a draft (the Civil War drafts are often cited as the first cases of conscription in the United States, but this ignores conscription administered by the states that took place during the Revolutionary War and War of 1812). During the Mexican War, roughly 50,000 troops were raised, all of whom enlisted without any compulsory measures.

When Lincoln started to mobilize troops against the Confederate States, he called 75,000 men. Not only was this number larger than that of the Mexican War, the Southern states had previously provided a


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ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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