Archive for 2017

Weekly Market Recap Oct 29, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

As Jim Cramer would say, it’s just another boo yah after boo yah for bulls.  Earnings season continues and indexes continue to hit highs.  Gains were not huge for the week but Friday’s whiplash higher surely was felt by bears.

“Earnings remain a solid tailwind for equity prices,” said Robert Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management LLC, in a note. “Just over 20% of S&P 500 companies have announced third-quarter results. Earnings are beating expectations by 4.5% and revenues by 1.0%. This compares to the long-term historical average of 4.7% and 0.3%, respectively. Earnings per share are on track to rise 8% for the quarter.”

President Trump on Tuesday asked Senate Republicans who should be the next Fed boss, and Stanford University economist John Taylor reportedly beat out Fed Gov. Jerome Powell.

The House of Representatives narrowly passed a budget bill on Thursday, which paves the way for the Senate to later pass a tax-reform package with a simple majority, instead of 60 votes.

Durable-goods orders rose 2.2% in September, beating the forecast of a 0.7% gain. Excluding transportation, orders increased 0.7%.  Remember the rally we cited in the housing stocks last week???  Well this week it was reported new home sales ran at a 667,000 annual pace in September, an 18.9% increase compared with August, and a 17% increase compared with a year ago.

The U.S. economy expanded at a solid 3% annual pace for a second straight quarter despite damages from two hurricanes.

Late Thursday, four of the most valuable tech companies in the world – Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (i.e. Google), Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) —posted better-than-expected third-quarter reports.    Alphabet, Intel and Microsoft closed at record levels.   DID I MENTION BOO YAH?

The tech sector now makes up nearly 25% of the S&P 500.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 .. NOT via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

The Federal Open Market Committee, which begins its…
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“Daggers Are Falling From The Sky” – China Stocks, Bonds Tumble After National Congress Ends

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Who could have seen this coming?

After weeks of 'calm' – demanded by The People's Party – and well-managed 'National Team' ramps top 'prove' how much Xi's plan for the next five years is being received, the end of China's National Congress has been met with… a plunge in stock and bond markets.

This is the biggest drop in the Chinese market in 11 weeks…

But it's not just stocks. The Chinese bond market is getting slammed…

China 10Y yield is up 6 days in a row (the biggest surge in rates since May) to their highest since Oct 2014…

With the Chinese yield curve now inverted for 10 straight days – the longest period of inversion ever…

As Bloomberg reports, the situation that’s existed for most of 2017 – sovereign yields rising, and corporate debt remaining relatively resilient – is at risk of cracking. As appetite for bonds of any kind dwindles and authorities roll out measures that target higher-risk investments, company securities are in the line of fire.

Now that the Communist Party Congress is over, China’s bond holders may be about to get hit by “daggers falling from the sky," said Huachuang Securities Co., referring to aggressive deleveraging policies.

“It’s very likely we will see a significant increase in corporate yields in the coming year," said David Qu, a market economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Shanghai.

"The trigger could be tougher regulations or a default. A majority of non-bank financial institutions’ debt holdings are corporate bonds, so their selloff can lead to severe consequences. Banks are underestimating authorities’ intentions to tighten regulations.”

“The deleveraging campaign hasn’t even gone half way, and the risk of banks redeeming entrusted funds could surface at the end of this year," said Qin Han, chief bond analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co. in Shanghai.

"The chance of a selloff in corporate bonds is increasing, which will result in a widening of their yield premium over sovereign notes."

But this is far from over,

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The scale and speed of environmental collapse is beyond imagination.

By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 20th October 2017 [Insectageddon: farming is more catastrophic than climate breakdown]

Which of these would you name as the world’s most pressing environmental issue? Climate breakdown, air pollution, water loss, plastic waste or urban expansion? My answer is none of the above. Almost incredibly, I believe that climate breakdown takes third place, behind two issues that receive only a fraction of the attention.

This is not to downgrade the danger presented by global heating – on the contrary, it presents an existential threat. It is simply that I have come to realise that two other issues have such huge and immediate impacts that they push even this great predicament into third place.

One is industrial fishing, which, all over the blue planet, is now causing systemic ecological collapse. The other is the erasure of non-human life from the land by farming.

And perhaps not only non-human life. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, at current rates of soil loss, driven largely by poor farming practice, we have just 60 years of harvests left. And this is before the Global Land Outlook report, published in September, found that productivity is already declining on 20% of the world’s cropland.

The impact on wildlife of changes in farming practice (and the expansion of the farmed area) is so rapid and severe that it is hard to get your head round the scale of what is happening. A study published this week in the journal Plos One reveals that flying insects surveyed on nature reserves in Germany have declined by 76% in 27 years. The most likely cause of this Insectageddon is that the land surrounding those reserves has become hostile to them: the volume of pesticides and the destruction of habitat have turned farmland into a wildlife desert.

It is remarkable that we need to rely on a study in Germany to see what is likely to have been happening worldwide: long-term surveys of this kind simply do not exist elsewhere. This failure reflects distorted priorities in the funding of science. There is no end of grants for research on how

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Norwegian Mining Company Launches First Asset-Backed ICO

According to Yahoo, "Intex Resources ASA, a mineral exploration company, engages in the discovery and development of mineral resources in Norway and the Philippines. The company explores for molybdenum and nickel deposits. It primarily holds an interest in the Mindoro Nickel project located in the Philippines. The company was formerly known as Crew Minerals ASA and changed its name to Intex Resources ASA in December 2007. Intex Resources ASA is headquartered in Oslo, Norway."

The stock (ITX.OL) jumped from $1.15 to $1.63 (42%) on Friday on news that it "was issuing the world's first asset-backed Initial Coin Offering, with the resulting tokens being exchangeable for the physical collateral" (ZH, below). The physical collateral, however, seems to be in the ground. Intex Resources has $665k in cash, a book value of $0.11 per share, no profits, no significant revenue, and one full-time employee. It spent all of $2,000 in operating expenses last year (Yahoo).

Friday's action:


Here's the Zero Hedge article:

Norwegian Mining Company Launches First Asset-Backed ICO

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

While the world debates whether blockchain-based Initial Coin Offerings are a fraudulent pyramid scheme, meant to take advantage of gullible investors who are desperate to get rich quick, or a revolutionary "post-equity" way of raising capital, a Norwegian mining company, Intex Resources ASA, has taken the next step in the latter, and last week announced it was issuing the world's first asset-backed Initial Coin Offering, with the resulting tokens being exchangeable for the physical collateral.

Although Intex is not the first corporation to approach ICOs as a means of raising capital, with Overstock revealing last week that it will launch an ICO on Nov. 1 using its proprietary tZERO platform, a strategy that will allow Overstock to raise capital without diluting its common equity float, Intex approach is somewhat different: the Company intends to issue asset-backed tokens which are backed by the Company's metal reserves; currently Iron Ore  and Nickel Ore.

Where Intex' approach is unique, is that the newly issued Tokens will be based on blockchain technology and will be exchangeable into the physical product, i.e. Iron Ore, Nickel or products derived  thereof. As a result, the company's Tokens are being pitched as an alternative tool for investors…
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These Are The Fastest-Growing (And Declining) Jobs In The US

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As the inexorable advance of automation kills jobs from retail to manufacturing to data entry while wages in the US show only marginal signs of improvement, the Labor Department's latest biennial employment projections have revealed the fastest and slowest-growing fields in the US.

…The industries that dominate the list aren't surprising. Home health aides, statisticians, solar-panel installers and software developers and other jobs that, as Bloomberg points out, reflect the needs of an aging population, a shift to clean energy and employer demand for science, technology and math talent.

Solar photovoltaic installers – America’s fastest growing field – are responsible for installing systems on roofs or other structures, and earning a median annual wage of $39,240 in 2016 – is projected to more than double from 2016 to 2026, according to data from the Labor Department’s biennial employment projections.

A staggering eight of the remaining 14 fastest-growing occupations are in health care, with median salaries in 2016 ranging from $21,920 for personal care aides to $101,480 for physician assistants. The highest paid among them – mathematicians – earned a median $105,810 last year, though the job typically requires a master’s degree. And as baby boomers advance into their twilight years – the while the knock-on effects of the opioid crisis continue to multiply – more growth is effectively assured.

…Meanwhile the fastest de typists, watch repairers, and postal workers are facing a bleaker outlook, the Labor Department data show…

Caught On Video: This Is All That’s Left Of Sears Canada

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

On October 11, we reported that the now defunct Sears Canada announced plans to liquidate its remaining 150 stores instead of restructuring, the latest admission of brick and mortar defeat in the war with Amazon, with the result some 12,000 job losses in the coming weeks. The Canadian version of Sears is the latest victim of department-store decline that’s swept North America as shoppers gravitate online. While the retailer has dabbled in pop-up stores and e-commerce, its distribution centers aren’t as automated as Inc. or even Canadian peer Hudson’s Bay Co., which last year opened its own robotic facility to accelerate online orders.

For thousands of soon to be unemployed Sears Canada workers and retirees the future of their pensions remains in limbo: Sears Canada has 18,000 retirees and beneficiaries whose monthly pensions its has to address. A motion was filed in August for a windup of the plan, which would require the company to pay the full C$266.8 million deficit, according to the filing. That motion has been postponed until at least Nov. 30.

There is also the question of what happens to all the local malls that suddenly find themselves without 150 anchor tennants. The Sears bankruptcy comes two years after Target's liquidation left a hole in many of the country’s malls, which made it tougher for Sears Canada to find buyers for its real estate and leases.

What there is zero confusion about however, is what happens to liquidating stores once their employees – aware their termination is imminent – lose all interest in even pretending to keep up an appearance of normalcy.

The answer is shown in the following video from Vtography, which was taken in the Fairview Mall in Toronto on October 22, 2017, and which captures the chaos from a liquidation sale at, well, liquidating Sears Canada. All that's missing from the post-apocalyptic scenes are the zombies.

As Kurdish President Announces Resignation, Supporters Storm Parliament With Knives And Guns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani announced his resignation Sunday after the biggest gamble of his 12 years as president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) not only failed, but utterly backfired as territorial reversals reduced KRG power to its weakest position in decades. Though his push for an independence referendum had overwhelming support among Iraq's Kurds, and with even the encouragement of some external allies, the decisive military response by the Iraqi national government resulted in rapid forced handover of Kurdish-held oil rich areas and a return to pre-2014 borders, prior to the blitz by ISIS which aided Kurdish political expansion. Barzani will step down effective November 1. 

And now the future of the KRG is itself under threat as reports of inter-Kurdish fighting emerged Sunday night. Multiple international reports characterized Barzani's speech as "bitter" and it further appears that violence erupted during or after his televised speech before parliament. During the speech Barzani proclaimed that, "three million votes for Kurdistan independence created history and cannot be erased" while also denouncing rivals who abandoned the fight for Kirkuk as committing "high treason."

His supporters, angry at what is essentially a forced resignation after rival Kurdish factions failed to oppose Iraqi national forces as they advanced in Kirkuk and other areas earlier this month, reportedly stormed parliament brandishing knives sticks, and guns. There are also unverified reports emerging that opposition party members were attacked during the chaos, as well as arson attacks on opposition offices in various parts of Erbil. 

According to a statement described as an "urgent message" to the international community from the Speaker of Kurdistan Parliament, Yousif Mohammed Sadiq, we could be witnessing the start of a broader breakdown in security in Erbil: "We are gravely concerned about the attack on Kurdistan Parliament Building today by a number of rioters with utter disregard for all human values and at the encouragement of a political party without any attempt by the security forces to prevent them." 

Barzani supporters storm Iraqi Kurdish parliament as he announces his resignation. There were reports of wounded among Erbil opposition politicians and some media staff on Sunday. 

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The “Iron Coffin Lid”: Why The Euphoric Surge In Japanese Stocks Is Coming To An End

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last week, Japan's Nikkei 225 index enjoyed its longest winning streak in history which eventually ending after 16 consecutive days of gains, only to resume rising after a brief one day hiatus. And, as foreign investors once again flood the Japanese stock market, chasing the momentum which has pushed local stocks to levels not seen since 1996, the question on everyone's lips is how much longer can this continue?

Offering a decidedly downbeat outlook on Japan's market exuberance, Shannon McConaghy – portfolio manager at what we have in the past dubbed the world's most bearish hedge fund, Horseman Capital Management – believes that the euphoria is about to end. The reason: the ominously sounding "Iron Coffin Lid."

In a note released late last week, McConaghy writes that there has been a lot of excitement over Japanese equities of late, with hyperbole from the sell-side, and others interested in promoting Japanese equities, becoming extreme. However, he cautions that "there is not a lot of discussion around the risks to Japanese equities from current elevated levels" and adds that "one observation I would make is that Japan has risen to these levels on a number of occasions over the last 25 years, only to fail spectacularly each time against what is referred to, by some in the Japan markets, as the “Iron Coffin Lid”. History suggests it is far better to be short Japanese equities from these levels than to be long."

So what is this Iron Coffin, why does it have a lid, and what happens next?

Below is a visualization of this "Iron Coffin Lid" effect: it shows the key resistance level in the Topix beyond which the index has failed to progress every time in the past quarter century.

There's more than just a chart however: here is Horseman's take on why this latest rally in Japanese stocks is also set for disappointment.

For those unwilling to outright short, I would point out that historically Japan has had meaningful underperformance following past bursts of outperformance. In these periods it is particularly appealing to short against longs in higher growth areas. Japan also provides amplified short returns during global down turns. As such it can be

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Texans Kneel During Anthem After Owner’s “Inmates” Comments, As NFL Viewership Slides

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Most players on the Houston Texans team knelt during the national anthem ahead of the team’s Sunday game with the Seattle Seahawks, following controversial comments made by the team’s owner, Bob McNair.

Here is video of the majority of Texans players kneeling during the National

— The Shadow League (@ShadowLeagueTSL) October 29, 2017

The protest came after Texans owner Bob McNair apologized for comparing players protesting during the anthem to “inmates running the prison.”

"I am truly sorry to the players for how this has impacted them and the perception that it has created of me, which could not be further from the truth,” McNair said, according to ESPN, which reported on Friday that McNair said “we can’t have the inmates running the prison,” in reference to players protesting police brutality during the national anthem. McNair also reportedly told Houston players he wasn’t referring to them in his remarks.

The Texans’ protest comes as some players continue to protest during the anthem, more than a month after Trump launched a twitter attack on demonstrating players.

On Sunday, several San Francisco 49ers players knelt during the anthem on Sunday, two Philadelphia Eagles players reportedly raised their fists, according to The Associated Press, while nearly all players on the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns linked arms during the anthem as well. 

Also on Sunday, Rev. Jesse Jackson called for NFL players to escalate their "kneeling" protests in the face of criticism from President Trump and league owners.

“The players should escalate their nonviolent protests,” the civil rights leader told The Houston Chronicle on Sunday. “Donald Trump called them ‘sons of bitches.’ (Colin) Kaepernick is not degrading the flag. He’s kneeling to pray, which is in our best tradition. If we had not knelt and prayed nonviolently, where would we be today as a society?”

In the interview, Jackson decided to escalate the controversy and said NFL owners have a “plantation mentality” and believes there should be sanctions against McNair for his comments. Jackson reached out to McNair and Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, but hasn’t heard back from either, he told

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Global Macro ‘Reality’ – The Hopium Vs Doomium Model Explained

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

When Reality and Sentiment Diverge

The Hopium versus Doomium Model

We are initiating the Hopium vs. Doomium model today.  I first came across the word Hopium in the aftermath of the financial crisis.  It was typically used by ‘doomers’ who believed markets were far ahead of themselves and were betting on hope rather than reality.

This model attempts to pit what I view as reality versus what view as sentiment.  The scoring system is partly objective (technical indicating overbought or oversold, fund flows, positioning reports, etc.) and partly subjective (largely me trolling the media and social media trying to uncover true sentiment shifts).

What this is meant to do, is to identify opportunities where sentiment and reality diverge.  If sentiment and reality are roughly lined up, then there is no obvious trade to me, but when one is very different than the other, we can identify underweight or overweight opportunities (or even long vs short ideas depending on your mandate).

Macro Hopium/Doomium


Let’s start with volatility, or more specifically, the VIX index.  It briefly spiked above 13 on Wednesday as global bond selling, concerns about the next Fed Chairperson and even some pre-earnings anxiety swept through the market.  It finished the week at 9.8 which was lower than where it closed the prior Friday.  VXN, a measure of the Nasdaq volatility, also dropped significantly as the Nasdaq composite surged more than 2%.

I do believe that the biggest risk facing the market is a spike in correlation and volatility – but I don’t see that risk as very high right now.  I have VIX showing up as barely in the green – meaning it might be a buy, but it isn’t that compelling.

Reasons VIX can stay low

  • Seasonality.  With fewer trading days as we start the U.S. holiday season can often push VIX lower.  There have been instances, like the fiscal cliff and around elections, that hasn’t been the case, but anyone looking to buy VIX must take seasonality into account.
  • Expectations for Tax Reform in 2017 are low.  Anything short of killing

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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons


Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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