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Tuesday Trade War Worries and Toppy Trading Patterns Persist

Image result for trump vacation cartoon

Welcome back! 

I hope everyone had a nice vacation.  Seems like nothing particularly blew up over the holiday weekend yet the market gave back 100 Dow points early this morning and we're back at 25,900 on the /YM Futures and below 2,900 on the /ES Futures and let's not forget that 2,872 is where we topped out in January and that too was a big run up but then we completely collapsed back to 2,532 for a quick 10% drop in just two weeks.  The high came on Jan 26th, to be exact, and that was AFTER Trump declared a Trade War for the first time that Tuesday

This week, Trump has "fixed" Mexico, though many "fake news" analysts say it's not fixed at all and still no deal with Canada and supposedly (also you have to believe what Trump says) we will be adding another $200Bn of tariffs to China, which would more than double all the tariffs put on all countries combined to date!  Yet the market seems generally unaffected – for now.

That Thursday (Jan 25th), I marvelled at the fact that only 7,826 (11.4%) out of 68,119 investors polled were bearish on the markets as we tested record highsNow it's down to 6,243.  This week's news cycle will be taken up with Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination hearings but it's a pretty big data week with ISM and Construction Spending this morning, Auto Sales tomorrow, Productivity, ISM Services and Factory Orders on Thursday and the Big Kahunah, Non-Farm Payroll on Friday.   

September, of course, closes out the 3rd quarter and we have a Fed meeting on the 26th where the Fed is very, very likely to hike rates.  As you can see on this chart, the Fed is still a hike below the average prediction of 2.25% by the end of the year and next year, the target is more like 3.25% so there's a lot of hiking ahead of us – usually not great for the market.


Trade still seems to be dominating the market talk at the moment.  According to Bloomberg, Trump even gave us a day of golf yesterday and instead spent the day on the phone with Canada and China, trying to avoid an all-out Trade War.  Over the weekend, Trump warned Congress that it may have to accept a new version of the trade pact that excludes Canada, a prospect with almost no support in either party.  Talks officially resume tomorrow and there seems to be a 90-day deadline, so this will take a while to pan out.  China remains a wild card as Trump is pushing for tariffs no one in Congress seems to want.

Oil and gasoline have popped higher as Gulf of Mexico oil rigs were evactuated for the first time in two years.  That's bad for our gasoline shorts but we're adding to them at $2.05 to average $2.025 but we'll take the money on the new half at $2.04, which would push our average up to $2.01 and then do it again on the next spike as the Fundamentals haven't changed and the same storm that's hitting supply will supress demand as well as flights are cancelled and car trips are not taken.

On the oil side, there are also still problems in Libya, Trump's renewed sanctions on Iran, and accident in Venezuela (and their whole economy is already a disaster) at a shipping terminal – not a good time to bet against Oil (/CL), tempting though it may be testing $72.  Expect Brent (/BZ) to be rejected at $80 and that's a good reward/risk play as it's run up from $77.50 so a weak retrace should be $79.50 at least for a $500 per contract gain and hopefully $79, for $1,000 per contract gains.  Weight that against the risk of stopping out at $80.06 with a $60 loss…

The strong Dollar is pushing everything lower this morning as we're back at 95.50 but still miles from the August high of 96.75 so we'll keep an eye on the action there, especially as we look to go long on Silver (/SI) when it finds a bottom (now $14.13).  Basically, this is the spot to start picking up longs and for sure once Gold (/YG) crosses back over $1,200 (now $1,196) but keep in mind it's very painful to be wrong on /SI, as it is $50 per penny, per contract when it moves (so it's fun to be right too!).

It's the same drill, however – pick a line to go long on, like $14.15 and get out if it's under for a $50-$100 loss and stay in when it's over but, if you have a quick loss, then take a quick gain to make it up.  You can also let Wheaton Precsious Metals do the trading for you though traders think they can't handle price fluctuations and have dropped them all the way back to $17, which puts our Long-Term Portfolio position on them near a $5,000 loss but we just doubled down on the longs, adding 20 more 2020 $15 calls at $3.75 on Friday and, so far, we haven't covered them.  

Silver was this low back in late 2015 and WPM was as low as $12.50 before blasting back to $20 in April of 2016 as silver recovered so it's a great proxy for trading silver though a very rough ride while you are on it!   Of course in 2015, WPM only had $648M in sales and lost $162M while the first two Qs of 2018 have shown $400M in profit already but $241M were special gains, not likely to be repeated.  Still, the company makes money by streaming, not mining – so they will be buying silver contracts cheaply now and, hopefully, selling them for more later on.  They've been doing this since 2004 – I don't think this little drop in silver prices is going to kill them!  

Overall, we're in no techincal danger on our indexes though watch the NYSE very closely if they come back towards that Must Hold Line at 12,800 this week.  The other indexes have miles to fall before being in technical danger but that's not always a good thing for short-term traders, as they could be prone to a "flash crash" on bad news.  


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  1. Good Morning!

  2. Brazil nearing a 52 week low again.

  3. Good morning!

    Back to 2 short /RB as they hit $2.02 so avg on 2 contracts is $2.025 now and up to 4 /SI long at $14.15 avg there and 2 long /KCN9 @ $1.09 avg so far.  I'm lovin' all of these positions but it's going to be crazy with the Fed and all this week.

    Indexes taking a nice dip at the open, now that window-dressing is over.

    /NQ just lost 7,600, in fact.  /YM testing 25,850 – bad if they fail.  2,885 on /ES and 1,725 on /RTY and we'll see if they are bouncy here.

    -200 so 40-point bounces but call it 50 so 25,900 and 25,950 are weak and strong.

    -20 so 4-point bounces to 2,894 (weak) and 2,898 (strong) but, of course, the 2,900 line is significant.

    I'd call it a 100-point drop from a failure at 7,700 so 20-point bounces to 7,620 and 7,640

    Clearly from 45 and down to 30 is just 15 points so 3-point bounces to 1,733 and 1,736.

    Europe is down twice as much as us so we have some catching up to do!

    Dollar is still strong if it weak retraces 0.2 to 95.30 and even strong retrace to 95.10 won't break the bull pattern.

    /KC (current contract) can also be played bullish above the 100 line with tight stops below.

  4. Kavanaugh confirmation is a farce already and it's just starting.  Dems not even allowed to object, Rep Chairman is steamrolling in a joke of a procedure.  If you saw this going on in Russia, you'd see it as clear proof that the opposition party is a powerless – put there just for show while the state does whatever it feels like while pretending it's the rule of the people.

  5. You can thank Harry Reid for that

    Nov. 21, 2013  “WASHINGTON — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., pushed through a controversial change to Senate rules Thursday that will make it easier to approve President Obama's nominees but threatens to further divide an already polarized Congress.

    Fifty-two Senate Democrats and independents voted to weaken the power of the filibuster. The change reduces the threshold from 60 votes to 51 votes for Senate approval of executive and judicial nominees against unanimous GOP opposition.”

  6. Nice whoosh down on /CL – glad we held that over the weekend & had an opportunity to add more shorts this morning!

  7. Reid – Unfortunately, it was a dumb move to try to get sh*t done….

  8. Good morning,

    back from 2 weeks vacation. did we do OOP adjustment during this time?

    thanks as always


  9. Phil / OIH – What are your thoughts on OIH (oil services)? Its low-ish in its channel and seems to have sold off ahead of oil.  Thanks!

  10. OOP Review 

  11. appreciate Grasshopper67!!

  12. AVGO chart still looks bullish to me.  They report Thursday after the close.  Hoping (not a valid investing strategy)  they put a positive spin on the CA acquisition.  The stock was down 34 points the day the merger was announced.

    Long a couple of BCSs and short some puts.

  13. Anybody here trade inverse vol (SVXY)? They're doing a 4x reverse split that should bring the price to around $55. And they reduced the vol by 50% so it shouldn't have those 90% drops anymore.

  14. SVXY / Bill – Use to sell UVXY calls but these guys (with SVXY) really killed the leveraged volatility plays when they ended up creating their own snowball process. Am playing with VXX now but would be interesting to see what happens with the leveraged instruments especially if they reduce the leverage itself.

  15. Phil – any thoughts on DLTR? Got knocked down a bit after recent report. Slight miss and overreaction by Wall Street IMO.

  16. SVXY / stjeanluc – I traded SVXY last year and made 20% using spreads so I never had more than 4% of my portfolio at risk. Lost 2% when it dropped from 137 to 12. The contango makes it compelling to me. What's the snowball effect you refer to?

  17. Reid/Mike – True, it's a double-edged sword.

    Whee on /RB – back to $2!  I'm back to 2 short now at $2.02 avg, very happy.

    Opportunity/Ati – As long as you keep firepower on the sidelines, a lot of these moves against you simply become opportunities to average better.

    Bounces failing on the indexes – not good.

    I'm out of here at 2pm, by the way, heading back to NJ this afternoon.

    OOP/Pat – A couple:

    HMNY still alive, by the way!  That was the last 31-day month until Dec.   More to the point, 4 weekends in Sept, Oct and Nov but 5 in Dec is the one that's likely to kill them (assuming their loan money is still a monthly cycle, causing them to run out by the end of a big month).  Hopefully they put something together before that happens.

    OIH/EMike – We have them in the Butterfly Portfolio, I like how they are pretty predictable in their channel.  Now bottoming so I like them long:

    As a new trade, I'd go with:

    • Sell 5 OIH 2020 $23 puts for $2.10 ($1,050) 
    • Buy 10 OIH 2020 $22 calls for $4.25 ($4,250)
    • Sell 10 OIH 2020 $27 calls for $2 ($2,000) 

    That's net $1,200 on the $5,000 spread and, when they move up in the channel again, you can sell 3 Oct $26 calls for $1 (the price of the $24s, so a $2 move up) which are now 0.27.  That's $300 and if you pick that up every other month for 16 months, that's $2,400 while you wait – nothing to sneeze at!   Just the straight trade has an upside potential of $3,800 (316%) but I'd sell the calls for another 200% upside potential.  

    Let's add that to the OOP as it's a good thing to work on!  

    AVGO/Albo – I love them and someone just bumped their price target 20% too.  They are not really cheap at $220 but at least less than they were and they can grow into $220 over the next year.

    SVXY/Bill – I'll still like them short if they pop near $100.  They'll just decay half as fast..

    DLTR/Soma – Oddly unloved considering they have good top and bottom-line growth.  56,000 employees is a problem as they are generally minimum wage so say they have to pay them $5 more per hour x 56,000 x 40 x 52 = $116.5M or 10% of the profits – that's the fear but so what?  

    Year End 03rd Feb 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 7,395 7,840 8,602 15,498 20,719 22,246 22,757 22,884 24,116 +24.6%
    Operating Profit $m 920.1 970.3 1,040 1,050 1,705 1,999 2,011     +16.8%
    Net Profit $m 619.3 596.7 599.2 282.4 896.2 1,714 1,714 1,313 1,462 +22.6%
    EPS Reported $ 2.68 2.72 2.89 1.26 3.78 4.85 4.84     +12.5%
    EPS Normalised $ 2.69 2.72 2.99 1.38 3.80 4.92 4.73 5.52 6.11 +12.9%
    EPS Growth % +33.2 +1.5 +9.6 -53.8 +175.4 +29.5 +16.7 +12.2 +10.8  
    PE Ratio x           16.4 17.0 14.6 13.2  
    PEG x           1.34 1.40 1.35 1.24

    At $19Bn, the company isn't overly cheap but it's a nice, steady stock and should do well in a downturn.  Certainly I like selling 10 DLTR 2020 $70 puts for $5.75 ($5,750) to add them to the LTP as that's nice cash for another 20% discount to the current price. 

  18. Woo-hoo on /SI too – back to 2 long with a lower basis ($14.13ish).  See, that's why /SI is more fun than WPM, can't get those super-quick gains outside of futures…  WPM at $16.50!  

  19. AMZN/Phil- I have 1 2019 1900 call which i bought at $128, I am thinking to write a call and make it into a BCS instead letting it naked, what is a good call to sell?

  20. OIH – Thanks Phil!

  21. AMZN/Dave – I take it that's Jan $1900 and that's now $230 so congrats on that.   If you want to stay in for more upside, I'd suggest the June 2020 $1900 ($450)/$2100 ($355) bull call spread for $95 as that takes $135 off the table (profit) and still leaves you with $200 upside and just as in the money as you are now.  It's tricky if you have just one but, if you have 2 or more, then you could do a 1/2 cover with the Jan (2019) $2,400 at $35 to get even more cash.

    You're welcome EMike.

    PMI Manufacturing index signals weak improvement

    ISM Manufacturing Index expanded in August

    • ISM Manufacturing Index61.3 vs. 57.7 consensus and 58.1 prior.
    • Employment 58.5 vs. 56.5 prior (revised).
    • Prices 72.1 vs. 73.2
    • New Orders 65.1 vs. 60.2
    • Production 63.3 vs. 58.5

    Optical stocks down with Riley cautious amid tariffs

    • Optical-equipment stocks that often move together on China demand-related news are lower today in the wake of B. Riley's backing off on Fabrinet (FN -3.5%).
    • Tariffs play a role in analyst Dave Kang's stance on Fabrinet as well as II-VI (IIVI -3.6%), also cut to Neutral. He's urging a sideline wait until some uncertainty clears up.
    • Meanwhile, he's more constructive on Lumentum (LITE -0.1%) with 3-D sensing proceeding through another year of its adoption cycle on smartphones. (h/t Bloomberg)
    • Also moving: AAOI -11.2%FNSR -7.1%NPTN -2.4%MTSI -3.3%. Faring better: CIEN+0.7%OCLR -0.5%ACIA -0.7%VIAV -0.8%.

    Dunkin' Brands rallies off of more M&A speculation

    • Dunkin' Brands (DNKN +2.8%) is higher on the day amid a new round of M&A speculation focused again on JAB Holdings and Nestle.
    • Baird suggests that even if today's chatter doesn't lead to a deal that a M&A floor on DNKN's share price may be established.
    • Shares of Dunkin' Brands rose to a new 52-week high of $76.12 earlier in the session.

    Mercedes-Benz August U.S. sales: -17%

    • Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:DDAIF) unit sales -17.1% to 24,192 units.
    • Mercedes brand sales were down 19.8% during the month.
    • Mercedes-Benz volume leaders in August included the GLC, C-Class and GLE model lines
    • Mercedes management U.S. sales update: "While customer demand remains high, our inventory levels are impacted by delayed availability of many of our 2019 models. We are currently replenishing the inventory of our popular 2019 CLA-, GLC-, E- and GLS-Class this month."
    • YTD Mercedes-Benz sales -5% to 223,651 units.

    Ford smashes expectations with August U.S. sales

    • Ford (NYSE:F) unit sales +4.1% to 218,504 vs. -1.8% forecast by Edmunds. Ford brand sales were rose 4.2% during the month, while Lincoln brand sales rose 2.7%.
    • Retail sales +1.1% to 165,794 units.
    • Fleet sales +15.0% to 52,710 units.
    • SUV sales +20.1% to 78,809 units.
    • Truck sales +5.7% to 102,173 units. F-Series sales +6.3% to 81,839 units.
    • Passenger car sales -21.3% to 37,522 units.
    • Sales update from Ford management: "F-Series completed 16 straight months of sales gains, while Ford Brand SUVs were up 21 percent in August. With greater production output and stronger stock positions, our two newest products had a terrific August. Sales of our all-new Expedition were up a strong 95 percent. Right now, the hottest vehicle in America is our all-new Lincoln Navigator, which saw sales expand by more than 100 percent in August."
    • YTD U.S. sales -1.2% to 1,690,221 units.
    • Shares of Ford are up 0.90% to $9.56.

    Toyota U.S. sales fall 2%

    • Toyota (NYSE:TM) unit sales -2.0% to 223,055 units vs. +0.5% forecast by Edmunds.
    • Toyota division sales were down 1.2% to 194,433 units.
    • Lexus division sales fell back 7.1% to 28,622 units.
    • Camry sales fell 19% during the month, while Corolla sales were down 5%.
    • Prius sales decreased 15% during the month.
    • On the SUV front, RAV4 sales fell 2%, while Highlander sales were up 24%.
    • YTD Toyota U.S. sales +1.0% to 1,621,137 units.

    Tesla -2% with Goldman back in the bear camp

    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLAslips 1.9% in premarket trading heading into the market open after the three-day U.S. holiday.
    • Goldman Sachs restated covering Tesla following the decision by Elon Musk and the board to keep the company public. The firm is still negative on Tesla with a Sell rating and 6-month price target of $210 on its expectation for increased competition in the EV space and margin pressure.
    • The New York Post's John Crudele is also taking some hacks at Tesla today, relying on aerial imagery to conclude that the company may be having some production issues.
    • Also in the background, an early review is on the Jaguar I-Pace from Wired. Industry insiders have been anxious to hear specifics on the performance of the  I-Pace’s electric powertrain

    Study: Telecoms throttling traffic to top video apps

    • On the net neutrality front, new research suggests that the country's biggest telecoms are slowing traffic to some of the most popular apps -- particularly video, including YouTube (GOOG -1.7%GOOGL -1.6%) and Netflix (NFLX -1.2%).
    • YouTube is the top target of throttling, according to the study from Northeastern University and the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. But data speeds are also slowing for Amazon Prime Video (AMZN +1.4%) and the NBC Sports app (CMCSA-1.3%), based on research using the smartphone app Wehe.
    • The study calls out "differentiation" in traffic treatment in more than 11,100 occasions by Verizon (VZ -2.5%); 8,398 times by AT&T (T -0.7%); nearly 3,900 times at T-Mobile (TMUS -0.4%); and 339 times at Sprint (S +0.1%).
    • Carriers meanwhile say they are throttling to manage network traffic and sacrifice speed in order to deliver videos. "Unequivocally we are not selectively throttling by what property it is," AT&T's John Donovan says. "We don’t look at any traffic differently than any other traffic."
    • Donovan compares the throttling to an electricity grid where some customers sign up for rolling blackouts in return for cheaper service.
    • Previously: California Senate rallies votes for tough net neutrality bill (Aug. 31 2018)
    • Previously: Net neutrality fight takes root in California (Aug. 31 2018)
    • Previously: Lawmakers press for probe into Verizon's firefighter throttling (Aug. 24 2018)

    Dollar Tree sized up after recent weakness

    • Dollar Tree (DLTR -0.9%) is named a new "best idea long" at Hedgeye.
    • The research firm calls out 75% upside potential on the retailer.
    • Earlier today, RBC Capital cooled a bit on Dollar Tree, lowering it from a top pick to Outperform on some short-term concerns over the Family Dollar business.
    • Shares of Dollar Tree are down 15% over the last week and 26% YTD.
    • Source: Bloomberg

    Telecom drags as worst sector today

    • Telecom is today's worst performing sector, dragging on indexes alongside downgrades of Verizon (VZ -2.7%).
    • The S&P Telecom Select Index is off 1.1%, while Nasdaq's Telecom Index is faring better, down just 0.5%.
    • The iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF (BATS:IYZ) is 1% lower; so is the iShares Global Telecom ETF (NYSEARCA:IXP). SPDR's Telecom ETF (NYSEARCA:XTL) is down 1.4%, while ProShares' Ultra Telecom (NYSEARCA:LTL) is 1.3% lower.
    • In key stock movers: FTR is 4.4% lowerWIN is 6% lower (and UNIT is off 2.9%). With Verizon down 2.7%T -0.8%S -0.2%TMUS -0.7%. Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD) is 1.6% lowerCCOI -2%CNSL -1.5%.
    • Bucking the trend today: CenturyLink (NYSE:CTL), up 0.2%

    Amazon hits $1T market cap

    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) follows Apple into the $1T club.
    • The e-commerce giant hit the $2,050.27 mark needed to push its valuation above 
    • Amazon is up 75% in 2018, adding over $435B to the market cap – or about one Walmart. 
    • Amazon shares are currently up 1.1% to $2,034.57.  
    • Previously: Surge pushes Apple over $1T (Aug. 2)

    Didi temporarily suspending service for safety measures

    • Didi Chuxing (DIDIwill implement new safety measures and temporarily halt some late-night services in mainland China to implement the measures.
    • The changes come after a 20-year-old passenger was murdered by her driver last month, the second such incident since May
    • Didi will upgrade its SOS emergency button to directly call the police, test audio recording of trips on some services, and enhance driver education. 
    • The ride-hail company will also increase its new customer service system with an in-house service team of 8K people. 
    • The temporary service suspension will last from 11 PM to 5 AM each day from September 8 to September 15.  
    • Previously: Didi Chuxing adds safety measures after passenger murder (May 16)

    Amazon's deeper push into the $88B online ad market

    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) trades up following an NYT piece about the company’s momentum in the $88B online advertising market.
    • In the most recent quarter, the “other” revenue category that contains ads surged about 130% Y/Y to $2.2B. 
    • Facebook (FB -2.2%) and Google (GOOG -1.1%)(GOOGL -1%) make up over half of the digital ad market, but Amazon has the advantage of deeper customer shopping analytics to help target ads. 
    • Advertisers don’t have to worry about Amazon ads displaying next to controversial content, which has become a reoccurring problem for YouTube.
    • Companies like Verizon and AT&T have increased Amazon ad spending despite their products not selling directly on that platform. 
    • Amazon shares are up 1.8% to $2,048.40.  
    • Previously: WSJ: YouTube lures back some advertisers after content concerns (June 20, 2017)
    • Previously: YouTube deletes 150K videos that led to ad boycott (Nov. 28, 2017)

    JinkoSolar, Chinese solar manufacturers double down on growth plans

    • JinkoSolar (JKS -0.3%) and other top solar manufacturers in China are raising production capacity, betting higher output will help them grab more of the global market amid tanking global solar prices after China cut domestic subsidies to rein in record growth last year, Bloomberg reports.
    • JKS, which has lost nearly half its market value this year, is ramping up cell and panel capacity and targeting higher-quality production, VP Qian Jing tells Bloomberg.
    • Since the release of its "531 Policy," named after the date of the plan, Goldman Sachs and others have cut estimates for solar capacity additions in China, and Bloomberg has forecast that panel prices may plunge 34% this year.
    • “There has not been a change in our capacity utilization rates after the 531 plan,” Qian says, adding that JKS has been running at full capacity. “Continuous strong demand from overseas more than offset headwinds from the unfavorable domestic policy shift.”
    • JKS will raise cell capacity by 40% and panels by 20% by the end of this year from levels seen in Q2, according to a recent company presentation.

    Unfinished 737s are piling up – WSJ

    • Boeing (BA) is facing a problem as it races to meet demand for single-aisle, fuel-efficient jets: where to store unfinished 737s piling up at a factory near Seattle, WSJ reports.
    • "Boeing is running out of space," Renton public works administrator Gregg Zimmerman wrote to city council members in a July 27 memo about a taxiway storage plan at a small airport in Renton, Wash. "They have encountered an emergency production challenge that threatens to interfere with their ability to keep their airplane production lines running."
    • The delays are due largely to two suppliers: CFM International and Spirit AeroSystems. Both companies have said some of their own small suppliers are struggling to meet demand.

    Nike seen outliving initial Kaepernick backlash

    • Nike (NYSE:NKE) is down 2.8% in early trading following the company' decision to feature Colin Kaepernick in a new ad campaign.
    • The decision places the company in the political spotlight for the moment, but is expected to pay off over time.
    • "The long-term relationship and a contract that benefits both parties over the next 10 years will likely outweigh any current controversy," says Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Chen Grazutis.
    • Nike has outlived several other quick-hit political protests in the past.
    • Previously: Nike ad campaign features Kaepernick (Sept. 4)

    Transocean to buy Ocean Rig in $2.7B cash and stock deal

    • Transocean (NYSE:RIGagrees to acquire Ocean Rig UDW (NASDAQ:ORIG) in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $2.7B, including debt, that RIG says will enhance its position as the leader in ultra-deepwater and harsh environment drilling.
    • RIG is offering 1.6128 newly issued shares plus $12.75 in cash for each ORIG common share, for a total implied value of $32.28/share, representing a 19.2% premium to Friday’s closing price; RIG and ORIG shareholders would own ~79% and 21%, respectively, of the combined company.
    • RIG says the acquisition will result in a combined fleet of 57 floaters, with 17 of the top 50 and 31 of the top 100 ultra-deepwater drillships in the industry; its backlog would increase by $743M for a combined total of $12.5B

    Nothing major going on – I have to get ready to go!  

  22. Damn, too much profit to leave open while I'm flying!  

    Oh well, nice way to start the month off…

    Still have 2 long /SI and 2 long /KCN9 – I would rather DD on them than blow $4,500 gain on /RB and then have to DD…

    Of course, overall, we're looking to do better than $1.985 to the downside. 

  23. Cars are cruising down the monthly subscription highway

  24. US construction spending rose 0.1 percent in July

  25. President Trump has made 4,713 false or misleading claims in 592 days

  26. Dutch bank pays huge fine in money laundering case

  27. Big Tech heads to Washington

  28. Federal Court Says Cities Can’t Prosecute People For Sleeping On Streets

  29. Trump’s Pointless U.N. Stunt

  30. Good morning!

    Back in NJ but I have a meeting with JSN for PSWI this afternoon as we're getting ready to launch (already in Beta with some clients).  I'll be here until 2pm.

    Could be a crazy day as we have lots of Fed Speak:

    Bloomberg stopped publishing their calendar that gave us a heads up on the Fed but I found one from Econoday so someone remind me to add it to my main computer when I get home on the 15th (home is FL now, not NJ).  

    Big danger today is the Senate looking like they are going to ruin the Internet during today's tech hearings where Team Trump wants to vilify his "enemies":

    • The hearing is a follow-up to the one convened in November on Russian election interference.
    • Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) COO Sheryl Sandberg and Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) CEO Jack Dorsey will testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee today about how the big technology companies are preparing for midterm elections.
    • Google (GOOGGOOGL) executives Larry Page and Sundar Pichai were also invited to appear before Congress, but the offer was declined.
    • The hearing will go live here at 9:30 a.m.

    Williams tomorrow and 3 speakers again on Friday but 2 are Rosengren and then Mester, who's been a reliable dove lately.

    Futures down a bit on more Emerging Market worries.  Gasoline still going down! 

    $68.50 should be bouncy for oil so /RB should bounce too but we'll see if it's strong or weak.

    • Saudi Arabia wants oil to stay between $70 and $80 a barrel for now, according to OPEC and industry sources, as the world's biggest crude exporter strikes a balance between maximizing revenue and keeping a lid on prices until U.S. congressional elections.
    • Shortly after announcing the flotation of Saudi Aramco in 2016, the kingdom began pushing for higher crude prices, but that changed in April when President Trump put public pressure on Riyadh to keep prices in check.
    • Tropical Storm Gordon has made landfall just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border, but oil prices are partly reversing a strong jump from the previous day, when dozens of U.S. oil and gas platforms were shut in anticipation of the impending disruption.
    • Not as strong as expected? The storm was shifting eastward late Tuesday, reducing its threat to producers on the western side of the Gulf and most Gulf Coast refineries.
    • Crude futures -1% to $69.14/bbl.

    U.S., Canada resume NAFTA negotiations

    • Senior officials from the U.S. and Canada are due to meet in Washington today in a bid to settle major NAFTA differences amid pressure from the Trump administration.
    • "No NAFTA is better than a bad NAFTA deal for Canadians and that’s what we are going to stay with," Justin Trudeau told reporters, stating he would insist on keeping the Chapter 19 dispute-resolution mechanism and existing protections that ban U.S. media firms from buying Canadian cultural industries.
    • Concerns about economic damage from a powerful typhoon weighed on Japanese shares overnight, resulting in the Nikkei's fourth consecutive day of losses.
    • Jebi, the most powerful storm to hit the country in 25 years, rammed through Western Japan, killing at least ten people and leaving more than a million homes without power.
    • It also briefly submerging a large part of Kansai Airport. Many chip plants operate in the region, including Toshiba Memory (OTCPK:TOSYY).
    • Nikkei -0.4% to 22,599.
    • Australia's economy sped past all expectations in Q2 as rapid population growth fueled demand for homes and infrastructure, while bolstering consumer spending despite painfully slow wages growth.
    • GDP was 3.4% higher than a year earlier, ahead even of the 2.9% growth boasted by the U.S., a remarkable feat given the nation's ever-changing procession of prime ministers

    Also, Brexit heating up again as May takes a hard stand.

  31. is there a webinar today

  32. No, I have that meeting.

    Next week.