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Monday Market Melt-Up – Trade Talk Progress Pushes Us Higher

"Substantial progress."

President Trump said Sunday he would delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect at the end of this week, citing “substantial progress” on issues including intellectual property and technology transfer after a weekend of talks.  In a tweet, Mr. Trump wrote that should progress continue, the U.S. would plan a summit with President Xi Jinping of China to “conclude an agreement” that would settle a yearlong trade fight between the two nations.

While Trump’s tweets didn’t specify how long the extension of a trade truce would last or any date for a potential summit, we are halting the tariff increase on $200Bn worth of Chinese goods that were scheduled to go from 10% to 25% as of March 1st, so that's $30Bn already not being collected and I'm pleased with just that as my primary fear was that trump wouldn't be willing to give up the $360Bn budget offset those tariffs represented (but even his thick fans were starting to notice that they were the ones paying the tariffs, not the Chinese).  

The key concession Trump seems to have gained from China is a promise to buy $300-400Bn more goods per year from the US to "balance" the trade and mostly that will come in the form of farm and energy products (you didn't think the Chinese would actually want our manufactured goods, did you?) and that's already giving our Natural Gas (/NGV19) trade a nice bump (we talked about that in  last Wednesday's Morning Report) and, of you missed that one, try going long on July Coffee Futures (/KCN19), which are still down at $102.45 as that's been very depressed all winter.

Oil prices are off a cliff today as the Trump, feeling all-powerful this morning, decided it was time to declare "Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!".  Keep in mind that Trump had room for another 200 characters, so he didn't need to sound like a cave man but it's possible he's working on some new type of Haiku. 

Oil is actually 10% lower than it was last year but now it's lower than that, dropping 2.5% this morning back below $56 but we knew it was too high on Friday and I had made a call for our Members to short Gasoline Futrues (/RB) on Thursday as we expected them to top out at $1.62, saying about the EIA Report: "Oil inventories net neutral – not likely to help but /RB off to the races at $1.617 – I'd short them below $1.62 with tight stops above."

Sadly, we took an 0.02 ($840 per contract) gain off the table into the weekend as it wasn't worth the risk, that extra 0.035 drop would have made us another $1,470 but a bird in the hand is certainly worth more than 1.75 in the bush and now I'd look to play oil (/CL) long off $56 for at least an 0.25 bounce ($250 per contract) but anything below $56 is a no-play but I think taking Trump's word for anything is an over-reaction and, as I said, we're already 10% lower than last March 1st, at $61.50 and the Feb highs were $65 and we went on to $72.50 in May so I hope I'm wrong and Trump can talk oil down to $50, where we would love to go long into the Memorial Day Weekend.

Oil is actually down on US/China trade fears and, now that that's going away, we should see an uptick in demand.  One way to play oil long is to play the Ultra-long Oil ETF (UCO), which was in the $30s last summer and now under $20.  With an ultra, you just think about how much oil is likely to gain (10%) and, since it's a 2x Ultra – our target is $24 and our time-frame is May but there are no May contracts but the UCO June $20 ($1.90)/23 ($1) bull call spread should be less than $1 and it will pay $3 (up 200%) if UCO is over $23 at June expiration. 

That's all it takes to come up with a premise and to make an options trade that limits the risk ($1) and targets a gain ($2) and it's just 116 days to expiration and a spread like that requires no margin – what could be simpler than that?  So, now that you've learned options, I'm going to teach you how to hedge:

Let's say you are a working Dad with a driving kid paying for 3 cars worth of gas per week and, at the current price ($2.75) x 15 gallons (300 miles) x 3 cars that's $123.75 per week.  So, over the course of a year, you'll spend $6,435 on gasoline.  Gasoline was $3.50 last summer and 0.75 more would be $1,755 more than you're spending now so a HEDGE against that (rising gas prices) happening would be to purchase $500 (5) worth of UCO June $20/23 bull call spreads and those will pay you back $1,500 if gasoline is more expensive in June, mitigating $1,000 of your $1,755 additional expese.  

If Gasoline stays the same or goes lower, you will lose the $500 but you'll continue to pay these lower prices for gas – so still a win but then you've mitigated your savings.  Of course, as investors, we have yet another way to hedge this because we know that, if oil is lower in the Summer, then Airlines will do better than last year as fuel is 30% of their operating costs.  Alaska Air (ALK) is one of our favorite Airline stocks (now $62) so what we can do is promise to buy 200 shares of ALK for $60 ($12,000) by selling 2 July $60 puts for $3.20 ($640).  So now our hedge looks like this:

  • Sell 2 ALK July $60 puts for $3.20 ($640)
  • Buy 5 UCO June $20 calls for $2 ($1,000) 
  • Sell 5 UCO June $23 calls for $1 ($500) 

Now we have a net $140 credit and, if all goes well, the short puts expire worthless and we collect $1,500 on the spread and that would be a net gain of $1,640 – covering almost the entire anticipated increase in gasoline costs and our worst-case scenario is that we're forced to buy 200 shares of ALK for a bit under $12,000 (we still have the $140 credit) and we would then sell options against that to further lower the basis.

Trading is FUN & PROFITABLE when you have the right tools at your disposal and understand how to use them.  These aren't complicated concepts and, if you own a business that spends money on commodities, whether it's gasoline or heating oil or soybeans, wheat, copper or coffee… you SHOULD learn how to hedge your commodity costs – you'll save a lot more than you do by going with cheaper toilet paper!  

Last week, we knew the FIX was in for the Markets on Monday, when we saw that we were going to have 5 Fed Speakers on Friday and they all came through cooing like doves.  This week, Jerome Powell speaks to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday and it's been a very long time since a Fed speaker has had to face a Democratic House – that happens Wednesday at 10 am.

There are 5 Fed speakers on Thursday and Friday to make sure the message is hammered home and Thursday has 4 of the speakers because GDP is out at 8:30 and the market will very likely need saving after seeing that report – which is also the real reason Trump is pulling the plug on the Trade War – as it's killing the GDP, where the Fed's own forecasts for Q4 have fallen from 2.7% to 1.4% – a massive embarrassment for the President (assuming he's capable of feeling embarrassed).

We also have Fed District Reports from Chicago, Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City along with Home Prices and Consumer Confidence (Tues), Factory Orders, Inventories, Pending Home Sales and Investor Confidence on Wednesday – along with another EIA Report, GDP, Chicago PMI and Farm Prices on Thursday and Friday we'll see Personal Income & Outlays along with PMI, ISM and Consumer Sentiment.  If the S&P is still above 2,800 at the end of all that – THEN I will be impressed.  Until then, I'm very worried about the market's reaction to the GDP because you already know it and I already know it but THEY are pretty stupid and only seem to react to the actual release. 

Earnings, by the waay, are still rolling in, mostly from small-caps but still about 20% of the S&P left to report:

While Q4 earnings have been solid, up 13.1% from last year (better tax rate, so expected), 59 of the S&P 500 companies have given downward guidance vs just 19 raising it and that's a pretty big red flag going forward.  As of Friday, the S&P was up 11% for the year so tax cuts are now fully baked in so – now what?  The trade war ending isn't a positiive – it's just not a negative – so let's continue to be a bit cautious moving forward.  

 


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  1. So we start a trade war, China stops buying all kinds of stuff from us, so much so that we have to spend billions to compensate farmers. In the meantime, the US consumer is stuck paying billions on tariffs that China is supposedly paying (like Mexico for the wall) and when after a year of this non-sense China agrees to buy stuff they were already buying before the trade war started, it counts as a win? That's the kind of deal that no one but Trump could negotiate. The guy is a Jedi master of deal for sure….


  2. Good Morning!


  3. Interesting take on Netflix:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/opinion/sunday/netflix-oscars.html

    The strategy may sound familiar; Hollywood and Silicon Valley have long pursued expansion internationally. But Netflix's strategy is fundamentally different. Instead of trying to sell American ideas to a foreign audience, it’s aiming to sell international ideas to a global audience. 

    The choices of foreign shows is simply incredible now!


  4. Are you closing out the GE position and just waiting for the new strikes?


  5. Good morning! 

    I hope everyone had a lovely weekend.  This week should be interesting, /CL already doing well but we were only after the 0.25 so keep a tight stop back at $56.25 if it heads back down – Plenty of other ways to make money this week.

    Big Chart – Looking good, can't fight the tape.

    Win/StJ – Trump needs wins badly so this is an easy one, no real deal with China, he has to let Huawei off the hook (was already in motion) and all China is doing is buying crops from us there were buying from someone else – what do they care?  Same with Kim, the deal he's signing is nothing but it will flood his country with cash and I'm sure Trump has helped show Kim how to pocket some for himself. 

    NFLX/StJ – There's too many shows, they need to have a show that tells you about the shows they have.  Russian Doll was very good – I saw a few of those this weekend.  

    1,600 – finally!  


  6. Short /NQ.


  7. GE/Doro – Thanks for reminding me.  I don't see the point in sticking with the GE trade as they are doing a major split-off and the options will be a complete mess.  Let's cash in the OOP and LTP now and re-evaluate once they have new options.

    Short Call 2021 15-JAN 15.00 CALL [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] -40 10/1/2018 (690) $-6,000 $1.50 $-0.58 $7.21     $0.93 $0.00 $2,300 38.3% $-3,700
    Long Call 2021 15-JAN 8.00 CALL [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] 100 11/20/2018 (690) $25,000 $2.50 $1.05     $3.55 $0.00 $10,500 42.0% $35,500
    Short Put 2021 15-JAN 10.00 PUT [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] -40 12/4/2018 (690) $-14,000 $3.50 $-1.62     $1.89 $0.00 $6,460 46.1% $-7,540

     

    Short Put 2021 15-JAN 10.00 PUT [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] -30 11/30/2018 (690) $-10,860 $3.62 $-1.74 $6.80     $1.89 $0.00 $5,205 47.9% $-5,655
    Long Call 2021 15-JAN 8.00 CALL [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] 75 11/30/2018 (690) $17,625 $2.35 $1.20     $3.55 $0.00 $9,000 51.1% $26,625
    Short Call 2021 15-JAN 12.00 CALL [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] -75 11/30/2018 (690) $-9,750 $1.30 $0.38     $1.68 $0.00 $-2,850 -29.2% $-12,600

    Unfortunately, we can't take it out of Money Talk, so we'll have to deal with the mess over there later:

    Short Put 2021 15-JAN 12.00 PUT [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] -20 1/30/2019 (690) $-7,300 $3.65 $-0.63 $0.95     $3.03 $0.00 $1,250 17.1% $-6,050
    Long Call 2021 15-JAN 8.00 CALL [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] 30 2/8/2019 (690) $9,900 $3.30 $0.25     $3.55 $0.00 $750 7.6% $10,650
    Short Call 2021 15-JAN 12.00 CALL [GE @ $10.17 $0.00] -30 1/31/2019 (690) $-5,400 $1.80 $-0.12     $1.68 $0.00 $360 6.7% $-5,040

  8. Well, at least we have a nice pop to sell into on GE.  I was regretting not covering more in the LTP last time we tested $12 but all good now.


  9. Phil/GE,

    will the short put position be an issue because of the split? Also I have 5 GE Jan 20 strike 13 call for an average cost of 2.34 (now 1.05). should I just close that position too.

    regards


  10. Buffett, after last week's stock plunge, says Berkshire Hathaway 'overpaid' for Kraft

    "I was wrong in a couple of ways about Kraft Heinz," Buffett tells CNBC. "We overpaid for Kraft."

    "It's still a wonderful business in that it uses about $7 billion of tangible assets and earns $6 billion pretax on that," Buffett tells CNBC. "But we, and certain predecessors, we paid $100 billion in tangible assets. So for us, it has to earn $107 billion, not just the $7 billion that the business employs."

    But Buffett says he has no intention of selling his stake in the company.


  11. Covered 1/3 of /NQ up 15 ticks.  Stops to entry on balance.


  12. GE/Pat – It's very likely the puts will become illiquid, so you'll just be totally stuck with them until expiration and either they go worthless or they don't but you'll have no control over the situation.  I still believe in them and I don't think it's a terrible idea to hold them but you never know (see KHC – or GE for that matter!) and, for $1, I'd rather not have the hassle.

    Buffett/Albo – Thank goodness he didn't dump on them.  They are still down but stabilizing around $35.   BRK-B went up on the news – how crazy is that?

    Well oil fell right back down – that's what I meant about taking the non-greedy exit!  

    Look what happened when I mentioned coffee:

    You have to be very careful with these thinly-traded Futures!  

    Nice short Albo!  


  13. Stopped out of balance of /NQ at entry.


  14. Phil,

    What are your thoughts on TOL. I feel with the low interest rate environment they can do well. What would be a good effective way of taking a long term position on them. Sell puts ?

    thanks

    Pat





  15. Worker visas in doubt as Trump immigration crackdown widens




  16. Phil what do you think of STMP for a position?


  17. Yodi, how do you like KHC for armchair trade.   You could buy the stock at $34.65 and sell the 19Jul19 $37.5 call for $1.40 and sell the 19Jul19 $35 put for $3.00.   This would be 5.68% return over 4 months.  Worst case, if you are assigned more via the sold put your basis would be around $30.89 ( a 11% discount to the price now).


  18. TOL/Pat – Builders are very tricky but TOL is usually a good one and aims more towards the high end, which is safer in this market.  They were a lot cheaper ($30) in the fall but $37.72 is $5.5Bn and they seem good for almost $700M in earnings so p/e around 8 is just fine to me.

    Year End 31st Oct 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 2,674 3,912 4,171 5,170 5,815 7,143 7,304 7,568 +21.7%
    Operating Profit $m 214.3 397.2 446.9 492.3 647.2 786.2     +29.7%
    Net Profit $m 170.6 340 363.2 382.1 535.5 748.2 679.7 684.3 +34.4%
    EPS Reported $ 0.97 1.84 1.97 2.18 3.17 4.62     +36.7%
    EPS Normalised $ 0.90 1.75 1.93 2.13 3.13 4.54 4.64 4.75 +38.1%
    EPS Growth % -68.4 +93.2 +10.2 +10.6 +47.1 +44.9 +2.07 +2.49  
    PE Ratio x           8.30 8.13 7.93  
    PEG x           4.01 3.27 5.40
    Profitability

    As the options prices are strong, I'd like to start a play on TOL by selling 10 2021 $35 puts for $5 ($5,000) in the LTP – we try to collect $5,000 for promising to buy something every month as that generates $60,000 a year for promising to buy 12 stocks if they get cheaper (net $30 for TOL is 20% off the current price) and, if they don't, $60,000 is 12% of our $500,000 (originally) portfolio – so a nice dividend for doing nothing more than keep track of stocks we want to buy.  

    That's how I'd play them ahead of earnings (tomorrow), Pat, after that, we could see if a spread makes sense.

    STMP/Tangled – I don't get it (their whole model) but they have great growth and nice profits.  Frankly it's always seemed silly to me as I thought mail was a dying thing but I guess companies still do plenty of it and their foray into shipping seems to be paying off.  They dropped like a rock after terminating their exclusive deal with the USPS after the post office refused to pay more for exclusivity, which the company thinks has been holding them back.

     

    I don't follow them closely enough but I'd say the price drop reflects the business they'll lose from USPS and it's going to take them a while to get it back using a mix of carriers.  On the bright side, due to the recent volatility, you can sell the 2021 $80 puts for $19.80 so, I would just do that and net in at $60.20 while they are rebuilding or be THRILLED with keeping the $19.80 if things go well. In fact, let's sell 5 of those ($9,900) in the LTP as the margin is only $4,808 – so a very efficient way to make $9,900!  

    Good suggestions this morning! 


  19. Robert dam I just lost my comment again, stupid system one reports to fast, I only type with 4 fingers what the hell.
    However in short KHC, trust you read the comments of other day, first wait and let the dust settle before jumping in obviously if there is blood on the street etc.
    Look at T, BX, M was just 24.06 on Friday if you keen to jump BUT IN SMALL NUMBERS:  
    Hope this is not too fast for this MC.


  20. Any thoughts on KHC, AAL or KEM as a new trade? Seems if KHC was good at $40+ it might be really good now (or when it seems to be bottoming). AAL is like DAL except possibly better (also UAL seems well-priced right now). KEM – they have a growth runway, PE is fairly low for a tech-ish stock… I'm watching them for a possible smash and grab on the weeklies but there might be a long term play.


  21. Robert today is a day to sell new cherry calls, there are very few stocks going cheap! For that wait till Trump has a tooth ache again, than you look for stock!


  22. Phil,

    I got out of /RB last Friday with a loss b/c the EIA report was good and b/c the front month was trading almost 0.2 higher with only a few days to expiration. I interpreted the data and the spread as the current month /RB will likely move up toward the front month /RB. Clearly I was wrong and if I just held on my loss would have been much smaller. Where did I go wrong in my logic? Thanks 


  23. KHC/Dawg – We put up a new trade on them on Friday. 

    AAL/Dawg -  Is nice but not compelling to me.  Nothing wrong with them as you can sell 5 2021 $35 puts for $6 ($3,000) and buy 10 of the 2021 $30 ($10.50)/37 ($7) bull call spreads for $3.50 ($3,500) and then you're in the $7,000 spread that's $6,000 in the money for net $500 with $6,500 upside potential if AAL Can gain $1 by 2021.  Seems like a nice, relaxing way to make 1,300% in two years – don't you think?

    KEM/Dawg – OMG how dull they are.  I like dull businesses, you can own them forever.  Silly low price too – I think people are worried they are about to go through another investment cycle, like they did a few years ago.  Still, if you want to be long-term, that shouldn't bother you and you can sell 5 2021 $15 puts for $3.20 ($1,600) and pick up  $13 ($10)/$20 bull call spreads for $3 ($3,000) and that one is net $1,400 on the $7,000 spread that's 100% in the money so all they have to do is flat or better and you make $5,600 (400%) – also not bad.

    Why is KEM not indented?  Because it's not a blue-chip, just a $1Bn component company and I don't know who their biggest contracts are with or how firm they are or what competition they face so – not a general recommendation….

    Oil tested $55, /RB testing $1.55 – wow!   Dollar not helping as it tests 96.50.

    ./RB/Japar – Well here's what I said after the EIA report (11:08):

    Oil inventories net neutral – not likely to help but /RB off to the races at $1.617 – I'd short them below $1.62 with tight stops above.

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude +3.7M barrels vs. +3.1M consensus, +3.6M last week.
    • Gasoline -1.5M barrels vs. -0.4M consensus, +0.4M last week.
    • Distillates -1.5M barrels vs. -1.7M consensus, +1.2M last week.
    • Futures -0.37% to $56.95.

    The net of the inventories was flat, that's what matters most.  At any given time some of the inventory is Oil and some Gasoline and some Distillates – it doesn't really matter which is which unless we somehow grossly miscalculated and processed 100Mb of oil into Distillates that we didn't need and that then causes a shortage of oil that can be converted to /RB.  Of course that's so stupid it didn't even happen under Bush – I'm just saying, that's what it would take….

    Anyway, so think of INVENTORY as a whole thing and it only matters if there's some extreme demand.  We process 20Mb/d so 140M/week so 1Mb one way or the other is not even 1% – it's a rounding error.  Given that, I then look at where /RB is compared to last inventory (13th) and it was up from $1.44 already so $158.4 was the 10% line and an overshoot would be 0.029 (20% of the move) so about $1.62 – so, per the 5% Rule, that's where I expected to see a pullback.  

    Also, oil was "only" up $3.50 (6.4%) since the 13th and there wasn't a good reason to expect /RB to outpace /CL by such a wide margin.  Clearly, in our tugboat scenarios, /RB would be the tugboat and /CL would be the tanker.  It can lead /CL up or down but, at a certain point, the rope snaps /RB back if it goes too far, too fast.

     And, of course, there was nothing I had read that morning to give me any indication that Gasoline should be higher so I had no inclination to be long /RB so I shorted the bandwagon.



  24. /Phil – Thanks for the plays on KEM and AAL.  400% sounds good. And 1300% on AAL sounds absolutely terrific. KEM and I are old friends. I doubled up with them a long while back when I was still a stock buyer (vs options).

    /anyone -

    Does anyone play the weeklies or have thoughts on doing that? Stamps.com put up a weekly ITM call spread earlier that was going for 67 cents on the dollar so picked up some of those. Tesla put up a ITM put spread that was 77 cents on the dollar. Played a Tesla weekly last week from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning and made 26%. Not confident enough in my skills to play them for serious money, but for beer money? 


  25. Phil / FTR – earnings tomorrow…. has had a good run up this past week ( although way below where I entered). do you have any view of what they may look like?


  26. Weeklies/Dawg – If you play them long enough you realize they are essentially random and a wast of time and resources that could be better spent making a very boring 400% over 2 years…  Put $1,000 into a 400% spread and you get $4,000 back over 24 months so $166/month for beer – problem solved!  

    • Sell 3 BUD 2021 $60 puts for $3.75 ($1,125)
    • Buy  3 BUD 2021 $60 calls for $19 ($5,700) 
    • Sell 3 BUD 2021 $75 calls for $10.50 ($3,150)

    That one is net $1,425 on the $4,500 spread so the upside at $75 would be $4,500 back for a $3,075 profit (216%) and then you can use your beer money to buy beer from the company you own that's supplying you with more beer money – what could possibly go wrong?  cheeky

    FTR/Batman – It's a long, slow grind to justify the acquisition and many years to pay down the debt so I'd be thrilled with "no bad news" but not sure how my fellow "investors" will feel.  We didn't have a hurricane though the Government Shutdown might have affected them – it's always something..


  27. What about a beer that can convert into a beer factory?

    https://www.spacexipo.info/


  28. advill – Beer making beer, kinda like Musk's machines making machines, where they were going to have to worry about robot aerodynamics cuz they were going to be moving so fast.

    Beer and Elon have one thing in common, they both end up being a pot of piss.


  29. Any thoughts on KR or MGA anyone? The KR 2021 23/30 spreads are $3.78 and $30 puts $4.65. So you could net into this (2/1 ratio) at $1.45 for a $7 spread.

    MGA doesn't have LEAPS, but the Dec 50/55 spreads are $2.70 and the 55 puts are $5.70. So this would be net credit. Or you could sell the 52.5 puts for $4.60 to net into the $5 spread for 40 cents.


  30. Wheeee on /NG – Gotta take that gain off the table ($2.90+ on /NGV19).  Congrats to our players!

    Oil is too weak to risk /NG not reversing 

    SpaceX/Advill – That IPO is what what Musk is counting on to bail himself out of all the TSLA BS that's not going to happen.

    Machines/Dawg – Did you read this one this weekend, we're making all-powerful, amoral monsters (and one of them is already in college… cheeky).  Won't we feel clever when we give them arms and legs to get around with?

    5 Creepy Things A.I. Has Started Doing On Its Own

    KR/Dawg – Another nice, boring company.  MGA also nice but possible down cycle in autos coming that you'd have to ride out.  They may seem cheap now but they were $32 in 2016 after seeing $60 and the short options don't give you a lot of cushion.  

    All these spreads are fine but you can't overdo it and you need to be diversified.  If the market collapses and everything drops 40% before it's done – make sure you are comfortable with where you will be with all these different stocks you are looking at.  Make sure you have enough money to ride out a major correction.   

    We don't take a $1M portfolio and use all our buying power to have $300,000 worth of trades (CASH) that will (hopefully) make over $1M in profit because, it is POSSIBLE, that things turn ugly and you lose $1M as well!  What we do is we take $100,000 and try to make $400,000 and, if that goes well, our portfolio is up 40% and we only used 10% of our cash and, along the way, we add a few early for the next cycle and it snowballs from there (as our 2nd year portfolios are doing now).  Don't rush into things – it's been a long time since this market corrected – you don't want to get caught on the wrong side!  


  31. 10-4 on keeping some dry powder. Good point. 



  32. Tesla Is Imploding…Again


  33. China’s Rally on “Trade”



  34. Image result for chicken littleNot the most impressive finish but it just looks like Dow + 60 in the summaries.  1,588 on /RTY is NOT a good sign, nor is /ES failure to hold 2,800 but I'm truly tired of doing the Chicken Little thing – the sky never actually falls and the Earth isn't actually warming and $22Tn in Debt is just an accounting thing…. 

    • Many of the world's clouds could disappear if the carbon dioxide we keep pumping into our atmosphere soars to extreme levels, a new study suggests.

      The lack of those cooling clouds would then trigger a spike in global temperatures, potentially as much as 14 degrees, melting polar ice and leaving coastal cities underwater.

      For this to happen, concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in our atmosphere would have to triple, from around 400 parts per million now to 1,200 ppm sometime next century.

      That extreme level of carbon dioxide, while unlikely, could "be reached within a century under high-emission scenarios," the study said. 

     

    • OSLO (Reuters) – Evidence for man-made global warming has reached a "gold standard" level of certainty, adding pressure for cuts in greenhouse gases to limit rising temperatures, scientists said on Monday.

      "Humanity cannot afford to ignore such clear signals," the U.S.-led team wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change of satellite measurements of rising temperatures over the past 40 years.

      They said confidence that human activities were raising the heat at the Earth's surface had reached a "five-sigma" level, a statistical gauge meaning there is only a one-in-a-million chance that the signal would appear if there was no warming.

    • The White House plans to create an ad hoc group of select federal scientists to reassess the government’s analysis of climate science and counter conclusions that the continued burning of fossil fuels is harming the planet, according to three senior administration officials.

      The National Security Council initiative would include scientists who question the severity of climate impacts and the extent to which humans contribute to the problem, according to these individuals, who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

      The group would not be subject to the same level of public disclosure as a formal advisory committee.

      The move would represent the Trump administration’s most forceful effort to date to challenge the scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions are helping drive global warming and that the world could face dire consequences unless countries curb their carbon output over the next few decades

    Image result for trump climate cartoon


  35. ~Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) reported Q4 EPS of $0.51, $0.23 better than the analyst estimate of $0.28. Revenue for the quarter came in at $4.62 billion versus the consensus estimate of $4.51 billion.

    Nice!  Now we just need a good report from M in the morning, too!


  36. Buyers Pay $40 Premium for Cooking Fuel as Saudi Supplies Shrink