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$300,000 Thursday – Our Options Opportunity Portfolio Goes up 200%

There's not much news and it's a silly pre-holiday trading day so I'm going to reveiw the OOP instead.  

The Options Opportunity Portfolio was initiated last year in Seeking Alpha's Marketplace and, since the Summer, it's been on quite a tear and we just crossed $300,000 – up 200.7% from our $100,000 initial set-up back on Jan 3rd of 2018.  You can follow our progress and changes under the Virtual Porfolio Tab on Philstockworld's main page and, unlike our Long-Term/Short-Term paird portfolios, the Options Opportunity Portfolio is self-hedged – so it's just the one, balanced portfolio.

Our goal in the OOP is to take advantage of OPPORTUNITIES in the maket – usually we jump on stocks that have been unfairly sold off on news we don't consider as bad as the traders who are running out of the stock.  That's why you see a lot of stocks in here with erratic charts – usually they've had some kind of mishap which drew our attention to them.

In our March Review, on the 7th, we were at $283,465 and now $300,689 is up $17,224 for the month and that's 17.2% of our original $100,000 – so pretty good for a month – too good really and we're going to look carefully for places we can take some money off the table, as we don't REALLY trust this rally.

  • FTR – This has been a bad trade for us this year and we're just waiting to see what happens on 4/30 earnings.
  • HMNY – I think we own most of the company at this point – not that it's worth anything…
  • HOV – This one we're expecting to recover nicely over time.
  • TZA – One of our hedges, no adjustments.  TZA is a 3x Ultra-Short so a 20% drop in the Russell should give us a 60% bounce to about $14.50, which would make the 50 calls worth $6.50 so $32,500 less the current value of $10,275 means we have $22,225 worth of protection here.  

  • LB – An aggressive put but we like LB.
  • PLAY – Not worried about these. 
  • SIG – Retail turnarounds are tought but we have faith in this one. In fact, let's buy 5 of the 2021 $15 calls for $9.20 ($4,600) and we will cover them eventually, but not while it's this low.

  • SQQQ – We're going to roll the Jan $10 calls ($1.40) to the 2021 $8 calls ($3) for net $1.60 ($16,000) and we'll get some of that back by selling short calls evenutally, but not now.  At $14.50 these offer $65,000 worth of protection less the current $13,250 value and the $16,000 we're putting in so $35,750 in overall protection.  
  • AAPL – There's no sense having $120 calls that are so deep in the money so we're going to cash those in for $85 ($85,000) and add 20 of the June 2021 $180 ($42)/220 ($23) bull call spreads at $19 ($38,000) and we'll roll our 10 short 2021 $185 calls at $36.50 ($36,500) to 10 short July $200 calls at $11 ($11,000) so we're taking net $21,500 off the table and we still have an $80,000 potential spread 1/2 covered by short calls. 
  • ALK – On track.

  • AXL – Having trouble breaking over $17 but a great value stock so we'll give them another quarter.

  • BBBY – Good for a new trade. 
  • BHC – Old VRX, on track.
  • C – Just had nice earnings, already at our goal but net $14,225 out of potential $30,000 means all C has to do is hold $70 and we doulbe up from here.  

  • CDE – A miner that can't seem to get it together but we have faith long-term.
  • CHK – On track.
  • FCX – Good for a new trade.  Should rocket higher if US/China reach trade deal.

  • FNSR – Good for a new trade.
  • GNC – Good for a new trade.  Earnings 4/25.
  • GOLD – Old ABX.  On track.
  • HBI – Over our target already but room to run.  

  • JO – Our premise here is that global warming will eventually disrupt coffee production so good for a new trade if you agree with the premise.
  • KHC – Good for a new trade.  Disgraceful treatment of an original Blue Chip stock.
  • LB – Good for a new trade.  

  • M – Good for a new trade, these retailers are far too cheap!  
  • MJ – A great way to play the pot game.  We're deep in the money so let's cash out the 40 long 2021 $20 calls at $15.50 ($62,000) and we'll pick up 40 of the 2021 $45 calls for $3.70 ($14,800) so we still have a $20,000 $45/55 bull call spread in 2021 and 20 open calls while dropping net $47,200 in our pockets.  If the laws don't change, I expect this ETF to be over $70 by 2021.

  • MU – Coming back but still good for a new trade.  
  • NAK – Speculative mining play.
  • NLY – Dividend-payer and on track.
  • OIH – I regret selling the 17 calls in the last review but that's good as our 75% uncovered is now doing well.  

  • SPWR – My favorite solar play already at goal.
  • UNG – I love this play but it doesn't love us but good for a new trade.  
  • WBA – We adjusted our spread on the sell-off already.  I think this is a great entry point.

  • WPM – Our 2017 Trade of the year was so good this is a double-dip (after we closed the first) and I love these guys whenever they are cheap – but they are not cheap now.  Still, not inclined to close it as I expect more out of them.

Well, surprisingly not too much to adjust and, even more surprisingly, pretty much all positions I'm happy with as we've already taken all the iffy trades off the table.  Barring a major correction – we should do very well in this portfolio going forward but the excess hedging will slow us down if the market keeps blasting higher but that's a price we're willing to pay to lock in 200% gains!  


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  1. I won't need to read the Mueller Report, Barr will tell us everything we need to know in 30 minutes. I also wonder why the White House is working on a rebuttal. Do they plan on contesting the total exoneration? Like, we did mean to obstruct a little bit, but it was not that much, so we feel that total exoneration is an overstatement.

  2. Good morning, All!

    The webinar replay is now up!

  3. Good Morning!

  4. Phil would you roll up AAPL 2021 140 puts that are 77% in the money

    to 160s? 170s?

    cash out and wait for a pullback?


  5. Good morning!  

    I have to plow through the LTP review today so that will be taking most of my time.

    Barr says Trump only kind of obstructed justice 10 times but insists the key is that, although the Russians clearly interfered with the election to put Trump in office – they did so without leaving any evidence of collusion so good for the market – I guess.

    Big Chart – Very surprising that the RUT is failing the 200 dma again.

    Rebuttal/StJ – I think it bothers Trump if people don't know he masterminded the whole thing.  He wants more recognition without any actual, provable links.  

    AAPL/Coulter – I'm not sure where you mean as the OOP has pretty aggressive short $195 puts.  The 2021 $140 puts are $4.50 and I guess you sold them for $20 so that's great.  In this case, it's a free $4.50 to collect with very little risk while the $180 puts pay $14.50 ($10 more) but may give you a rough ride along the way.  Is the possibility of a 20% ($40) drop in AAPL to $160, where those puts would be about $33 something you are willing to deal with for $10.   If so, then take the $10 but, unless you need the money, I'd just consider the $140 puts free money and I'd wait for a nice dip to sell other puts – not a the highs.  

  6. Of course, this is one of those obviously not colluding incidents:

    And then Russia did hack Clinton's Emails so it's A+B=C but, somehow, Barr can't make the connection…

  7. Phil – thanks, yes I rolled my puts down — additional detail is that some of them are in an IRA where the maintenance requirement is 100% so each $140 put eats up $14000 in margin so basically would only be getting around 3% over next 20 months

  8. Big deal for NTDOY - Nintendo Co. intends to sell its Switch console in China in partnership with Chinese technology giant Tencent Holdings Ltd., potentially opening a market long closed for the Japanese videogame maker's flagship consoles. 

    The game-industry regulator in China's southern Guangdong province said Thursday it has provisionally approved Tencent's application to sell the "New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe" game for the Switch, pending a comment period that ends April 24. 

    Tencent filed in Guangdong because it is based in the province and the decision applies nationally, analysts said. You Yunting, a partner with Shanghai-based DeBund Law Offices, said the companies would need another license from China's central publishing regulator before they can sell games for the Switch. 

    A spokeswoman for Tencent, the world's largest videogame company by revenue, declined to comment beyond the regulator's announcement. A Nintendo spokesman confirmed that the company is working with Tencent on applications to Chinese regulators but declined to give details such as when the products would go on sale. 

    Analysts have long expected the two companies would collaborate in selling the Switch after Tencent made one of its flagship online games, "Arena of Valor," for the Switch. Nintendo's chief executive, Shuntaro Furukawa, when asked about the company's long-delayed foray into the Chinese videogame console market, had said Nintendocould move ahead once it found a good partner. 

    Some Chinese consumers have already gotten their hands on a Switch thanks to gray-market imports from places including Japan and Hong Kong. Daniel Ahmad, an analyst at Niko Partners, said that official distribution and marketing by Tencent could allow the device to "reach a much broader audience." 


  9. ng crossing back above 2.50

  10. ng inventory build abit higher than estimates re seeking alpha

  11. 3%/Coulter – That's a factor that makes it not worth it.  

    Switch/Batman – That's a huge product for them, all over the colleges.

    /NG/Tommy – Not a good report but was already too low so news wasn't bad enough to keep it down.

  12. hi phil

    if you were looking to enter ng fresh here around 2.50 would you wait for dollar to come back below 97

  13. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) – Part 1:  $1,429,270 (took a hit today) is still up $180,087 since our 3/13 review and we just spent $60,000 (1/3) pressing our hedges in the STP to make sure we keep most of this money should the market turn sour.  In fact, while the LTP lost about $11,000 this morning, the STP gained $16,000 so we're leaning a bit bearish, if anything.  

    Yesterday, in the trading Webinar, I identified almost $500,000 we can take off the table and that would make me feel SO much better going into the holiday weekend and the heavier parts of earnings though, so far, earnings have been pretty good.  

    • HMNY – They raised $6M last month and the whole company is only worth $11M (if that) so big dilution every time we try to survive another 30 days.  People do keep giving them money though.
    • NAK – Speculative gold play, just added so good for a new trade. 
    • Short Puts – Nothing I want to take off the table and nothing I'm worried about.  
    • ARR – Dividend play on track.
    • BNS – Good for a new trade – pays 5%.
    • ETM – Dividend play a bit lower than we'd like but fine.
    • NRZ – Dividend play on track
    • SKT – Another dividend play paying 6.77% while we wait.  Great for a new trade as I feel they are way undervalued, trading down with a sector they have little in common with.

    • AAPL – Let's cash in our 40 June 2021 $120 calls for $85 ($340,000) and we'll add back 20 June 2021 $180 ($42)/$220 ($23) bull call spreads for $19 ($38,000) so net $302,000 off the table and, of course, we'll bulk up the position over time but let's at least see if earnings justify $204.
    • ALB – On track and hoping for a big move soon.
    • ALK – We got more aggressive on the dip and it paid off but let's cash out our 10 Jan $45 calls at $17 ($17,000) and buy 20 2021 $50 ($15.85)/65 ($7.50) bull call spreads at $8.35 ($16,700) so not so much taking a profit as moving to a safer position (because it's covered) that pays $30,000 at $65 vs about $23,000 for the uncovered Jan calls.

    • BHC – This is the leftovers of a spread we took off the table, playing for flat to down from here.  
    • C – On track but we need to keep an eye on those short puts.  Maybe a stop over $3.50 on 10 of them.  
    • CAKE – We're aggressively long and I think they are consolidating for a breakout.

    • CDE – They've been terrible but 2021s are out so we may as well roll our 30 Jan $7 puts at $3.30 ($9,900) to 40 2021 $5 puts at $2 ($8,000) though it may be hard to fill as the trading is thin so don't take less than $2 – it's not urgent and, if we can't get $2, that means our $7 puts must be improving!  
    • CELG – The first spread is net $33,550 out of a possible $40,000.  Usually, I'd take it off the table but BMY is supposedly buying CELG for $70Bn and that's about $100 and will close out all our spreads early at full price – so let's leave them alone.

    • CHK – Holding up well against terrible /NG pricing.  I'm happy with the position but we can lower the risk by buying back the short puts – so let's do that.  
    • CMG – Our $480/540 bull call spread is $86,000 out of a potential $120,000 but we're in trouble on the short June $600 calls, which we sold for $50 but now $106.  I think CMG is wildly over-priced and the Jan $760s are $54, so that's our 2x roll if we have to so I'm inclined to wait for earnings on this one.  

    • CZR – On track.
    • DAL – On track.
    • DIS – We'll roll the 10 short April $115 calls at $16.80 ($16,800) to 15 June $125 calls at $9 ($13,500) and our $110/140 spread is only net $42,562 out of a potential $75,000 so plenty of upside coverage on the short calls.  

  14. /NG/Tommy – As I've mentioned, I have 3 long /NGV19s (October) at $2.75 as I though that was stupidly cheap but now down $2,500 at $2.66.  Unless we get to $2.60, it doesn't move the needle enough for me to add another long so I'm watching and waiting.  

    Thank goodness for Coffee!  

  15. They just bumped GDP forecasts up again so 2.4-2.8 range from below 2 last week.   BTE Retail Sales today and BTE Trade numbers yesterday. 

  16. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) – Part 2:  Well, AAPL took the pressure off finding more things to cash out but I'm still looking to get closer to $500K, which would get our Portfolio back to about 50% cash – where I'm much more comfortable. 

    • F – Dividend payer, right on track.
    • FCX – Should blast off if the trade deal goes through but no need to adjust as there's still plenty to be made here as it's a potential $35,000 spread now netting $8,975 and I tend not to say "good for a new trade" when we're gained a lot but $26,025 upside is still 289% from here – and it looks nowhere near as risky as my Dec and Feb entries did at the time!

    • FTR – Doubling down twice doesn't change the fact that we lost $28,500 on the stock so far.  They don't even pay a dividend anymore but I BELIEVE they are in the middle of a long turnaround and patience will be rewarded.
    • GCI – There was a proposal to buy them for $12 but, as far as I can tell, it never got funded so the company is drifting back down.  That's not why we bought them in Sept though – we think they'll turn and this is still good for a new trade.  The short $10 puts should expire close to worthless, we're not selling more for now.

    • GILD – This trade actually went against us but we sold calls at the 9/26 high and cashed out our original longs for a nice profit but now the 25 2021 $80s have lost so much money, we may as well buy them back for $3 ($7,500).  We can then pay for the roll of the 25 2021 $55 calls ($12) to the $50 calls ($15) for $3 ($7,500) by selling 10 2021 $65 calls for $7.20 ($7,200) so, for essentially no money (we made $23,250 on the short puts), we've improved our calls, putting them $12,500 deeper into the money in what is still only a part-covered spread that's well in the money.
    • GIS – Another one we can take off the table.  Let's cash in the 20 2021 $32.50 calls for $19.75 ($39,500) and we'll cover the short Jan $52.50 calls with 20 2021 $50 ($6.40)/57.50 ($3) bull call spreads at $3.40 ($6,800) so still net $32,700 off the table and yes, that means I don't think GIS is going higher this year.  Essentially, rather than pay an out-of-the-money short caller $6,400, we bought a $15,000 spread for $6,800 to cover it.  

    • GNC – These turnaround plays are very frustrating sometimes.  Still good for a new trade though. 
    • GOLD – On track.
    • GPRO – Our faith in them was rewarded.  Let's cash 1/2 (40) of the 2021 $3 calls for $3.80 ($15,200) as it's been a nice run and we don't want to be greedy.   By the way, the last sale was $4 and the spread is $3.40/3.95 but there's no pressure on us to sell so either we get our price or we don't bother!  

    • GS – Over our target already but too scary to bet against so we'll just let it run it's course. 
    • HBI – Made a lovely move up so let's cash our 50 2021 $10 calls at $9 ($45,000) and we can replace them with 25 of the 2021 $17 ($4)/22 ($1.80) bull call spreads at $2.20 ($5,500) so $39,500 off the table and we still pick up another $10,000 if they get to $22.
    • IBM -If you look closely at their revenue disappointment on earnings, it was driven by a 38% drop in mainframe sales but that's because we're at the end of cycle and new mainframes are coming out next year so a very silly reason for people to sell IBM.  We're right on target at net $38,713 out of a possible $75,000 and I don't have any better, less risky things to do with $38,713 than double it on this spread – so no changes!  
    • IMAX – They finally broke higher!  It was amazing how long this stock was cheap in the fall.  Let's cash in our 30 Jan $15 calls at $11.00 ($33,000) and buy 40 of the Jan $22 ($5)/28 ($1.90) bull call spreads at $3.10 ($12,400) and we'll roll the 13 short Jan $22 calls at $5 ($6,500) to 20 short Sept $24 calls at $3.10 ($6,200) so net $20,300 comes off the table and we still have a 1/2 covered $24,000 spread.  
    • IP – Good for a new trade.
    • KHC – I think it's stupidly low at $33.   That's a $40Bn market cap for a company that lost $10.2Bn last year AFTER taking a $15.4Bn Goodwill Write-down.  While something like that impairs the company's ability to borrow somewhat – it really has no actual financial effect so I think they are being unduly punished.   Still, if we're going to stick with them, we need to be realistic so let's roll the 15 2021 $45 calls at $1.30 ($1,950) to 20 more (50 total) of the 2021 $30 calls at $5.85 ($11,700).  After that we cross our fingers.  

  17. Phil, regarding GCI, all three positions expire today. What would you close, and what would you adjust?

  18. GCI/LTP/Idi – Wow, I missed that.  I guess we thought the deal would be done by now.  If I were going to stick with it, I'd just sell the Oct $10 puts for $1.10 and buy the Oct $10 calls for 0.80 and see how that goes but it's not worth it so we'll just let it die in the LTP with a $1,000 loss.

  19. Phil/Yodi-


    Any thoughts about OHI?  Healthy dividend payer  — opinions seem to be split over at seeking alpha.



  20. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) – Part 3: 

    • LB – On track.  It's tempting to buy back 1/2 the short calls, as that's where the profits are at the moment but I think it's a realistic target and I'd rather be over-covered than under (and we still have aggressive short puts). 
    • M – Very good for a new trade here – I would just sell the $30 puts with the long calls. 
    • MJ – We'll just pay off the short April $32 calls and hold off on selling more.
    • MO – These are the guys who will make the real money on pot down the road.  Right on track.
    • MT – Depending on Brexit and trade they could go either way so let's cash out the whole position for about $35,000 and pick up 20 of the 2021 $23 ($4.75)/30 ($2) bull call spreads for $2.75 ($5,500) and we'll see how it goes from here.  
    • MU – On track.  In fact, let's buy back 10 (1/2) of the Jan $55 calls for $2.45 ($2,450) just in case they break up.  If they don't – we can always sell more calls.  

    • NLY – Dividend payer – on track.
    • NYCB – Dividend payer – on track.
    • PZZA – I am no longer interested in them, let's close it up.  
    • QCOM – Patience pays off!  Let's just take this $60,000 off the table and run! 

    • SKX – Over our target at net $8,400 but it's a $16,000 spread at $27 so I guess we let it play out (only to Jan to make almost 100% – that doesn't suck).  
    • SPWR – Let's roll our 50 Jan $5 calls at $2.65 ($13,250) to 50 2021 $5 ($2.95)/10 ($1.05) bull call spreads at $1.90 ($9,500).  I feel better with the short calls locking in our gains.  

    • STT – Good for a new trade.
    • T – On track and now a Super Mega-Corp! 
    • TGT – At our target already but just net $20,188 out of a potential $43,750 so another quiet little trade that has a great chance of doubling if we just leave it alone.  

    • THC – Stupidly down with health care this week (down almost 25%) so I guess we may as well buy back the 15 short 2021 $37 calls for $4 since they were $7 last week – what a deal!  
    • UCTT – Over our target at net $15,800 out of a possible $20,000+ (only 1/2 covered).  Still, I feel better selling 20 (1/2) of our Jan $5 calls for $7.60 ($15,200) as that's more than we paid for the spread so the potential $10,000 more is a free ride.  
    • WBA – We jumped on these adjustments but it turned out we had lots of time.  Watching and waiting now and certainly good for a new trade.

    • WHR – Over our target at net $21,475 out of a potential $45,000 so no reason to touch this one.  
    • WPM – Over our target at about $20,000 out  of $37,500 potential.  There's no point in rolling this and it's worth sticking with.

    Well we got at least $400,000 off the table, close to $500,000 I think (I don't feel like doing the math now) so I'm very very happy and, as usual, I generally love all of our positions too much to close them.

  21. Well, I have to take off as a meeting just came up (Big Sale for Hemp Boca) but I'll check in from the road and, of course, tonight or tomorrow morning!  

    Have a great weekend everyone, 

    - Phil

  22. Read the Mueller report here

  23. Mueller says Trump efforts to derail probe mostly failed

  24. Interesting article positing that the price of Uranium is bottoming, and should enjoy a significant bull market.  There are a lot of new reactors coming on-line, and closures of existing ones in Japan, France are being delayed/reversed.  Meanwhile, prices are still depressed.  Is it time to try another CCJ long?

  25. Phil, do you mind reminding me your view on CAKE?  I see that the LTP is aggressively long, and their current PE is about 18x, without overwhelming growth.  What's the angle?


  26. Phil

     Did you up the  portfolio  from the Canada business network  ?

     If yes where would I find it


    Thanks  no hurray

  27. Interesting comment on our Stock of the year!!!!

    International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBM) remains a force in the big tech world, but it’s now less a headliner than it was before the dot-com boom started. Its R&D has always been stellar, but Big Blue is a textbook case of a big corporation that wasn’t quick enough on its feet to take advantage of all the innovation it had sitting in its pipeline.

    Its sheer size has kept it in the game, as well as the quality it produces. But its story is like that of the U.S. auto industry. Hungry competition came in and changed not only the rules but the playing field and getting the biggest tech firm in the world (as it once was) to adapt was almost insulting to leadership.

    Even after several strategic missteps over the decades, it was even slow to jump into cloud computing.

    Just this week, IBM stock slid after reporting an earnings miss for Q1. The stock rallied with all the other big tech but again, it’s not finding a way to compete against its peers or even smaller niche firms that are eating into its business.

  28. All you guys and girls have a happy Easterholiday

  29. Happy holidays folks!  

    You've got to watch this:

  30. Has anyone ever worked with a cable network.  I'd love to pitch a Japanese game-show channel – they have tons of great ones.  Hotels would love to carry it and I think it could be a cheap add-on.

  31. Uranium/Palotay – We got burned last time we listened to that rumor on CCJ as they fell from $10 to $7.50 and we gave up when we got even.  Now they're $11.80 and still look cheap but same story every time as a bottom is called.  I'd go conservative and sell the 2021 $10 puts for $1.30 and pick up the 2021 $10 ($3.50)/12 (2.55) bull call spread for 0.95 so still an 0.35 credit and worst-case is owning them for net $9.65 and then you could sell $10 calls for about $2 and maybe $8 puts for $1 and then it would be net $6.65 going forward.   

    So, for an eventual $50,000 allocation, I'd allow for being assigned 4,000 shares at $6.65 so that means 20 would be the starting spread for a net $700 credit and $4,700 upside potential but, if things start to look good, you can always push the calls $5 higher for less than $2 (the $17s are now $1) and then you'd have a potential $14,000 return on the net $3,300 investment (same assignment risk) but there's no need to go that heavy until you actually see uranium prices pick up for a while.  

    CAKE/Palotay – I just think they are an excellent fast-casual chain.  They've started franchising internationally and, last quarter, they projected $3Bn in Revenues and $4.50/share in profits by 2023 so, at $47 ($2Bn) now with $150M in profits ($2.50/share) I trust management enough to believe it's worth a long-term hold.  

    Also, keep in mind that when I "like" something, it doesn't mean I think they are going to double or even go up 20% – it just means I think they are unlikely to go lower and we can construct a good spread with them.  We took an earlier swipe at them and took a loss and got out so we're in our new position down roughly $4,500 overall but we control 25 $35 calls at $13.70 so those are pretty much at the money ($48.70) with very little premium and we sold the $45 puts for $5.30, so net $39.70 there is our worst case on 1,000.  

    CAKE Short Put 2021 15-JAN 45.00 PUT [CAKE @ $47.03 $0.86] -10 10/4/2018 (636) $-5,300 $5.30 $0.65 $-5.04     $5.95 - $-650 -12.3% $-5,950
    CAKE Long Call 2021 15-JAN 35.00 CALL [CAKE @ $47.03 $0.86] 25 1/14/2019 (636) $34,250 $13.70 $-0.20     $13.50 - $-500 -1.5% $33,750

    At this point, if they dip to $40 again, I'd be happy to roll down $5 more for $2.50 or $10 more for $5 and DD but, assuming they head back towards $55, once we sell 25 calls for more than $2 – anything over $48.50 profit so I'm very comfortable with this trade and trades that I'm comfortable with I don't have to worry about and trades I don't have to worry about are trades I can spend less money hedging.  THAT is what I like about CAKE!  

    MTP/QC – No spoilers until Weds, day of the show – it's TV baby!   It will be that morning's post unless something much more important happens.  And, by the way, I do expect a hurray!  

    IBM/Yodi – Not really fair as IBM and Google were partners way back in 2007 promoting cloud services to Universities and, frankly, the reason IBM was "late" with PCs is because they saw them as a fad and always thought cloud or MAINFRAME computing was going to be the future – because that's all cloud computing really is – large computer arrays running software for relatively dumb nodes that the users interface with.  IBM has been more concerned with building faster mainframes and bigger memory systems that will power the cloud and, of course, Quantum Computing.  In fact, here's an article from 2011, when IBM had 80% of the F500 using their cloud:

    Has IBM lost share to cheaper competitors since – sure they have – and they always do.  Has IBM lost it's edge as the leader in technology?  Not at all.   

    Image result for cloud platforms percent users

    Image result for cloud market share 2019

    Image result for cloud market share 2019


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