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Monday Market Mayhem – Trade Lies Unravel and Take the Market with Them

Image result for white house lies cartoon

Telling lies is all you know

You had me believing they were so

Nothing new, yeah, the same old thing


You got me singing the blues againFats Domino

Well it turns out everything the White House said on Friday was BS.

That's not too suprising but the market is acting like it's surprised now that China has stated that no progress was made last week and there are no further meetings scheduled and now the White House is trying to spin the G20 Meeting in June as a summit between Trump and Xi because Xi WILL be there and Trump WILL be there but, at the moment, it doesn't seem like Xi is very eager to speak to Trump, especially after Trump was blatantly insulting in his weekend tweet-storm:

I think that China felt they were being beaten so badly in the recent negotiation that they may as well wait around for the next election, 2020, to see if they could get lucky & have a Democrat win – in which case they would continue to rip-off the USA for $500 Billion a year….

I say openly to President Xi & all of my many friends in China that China will be hurt very badly if you don’t make a deal because companies will be forced to leave China for other countries. Too expensive to buy in China. You had a great deal, almost completed, & you backed out!

..There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job). Therefore, China should not retaliate-will only get worse!

The unexpectedly good first quarter 3.2% GDP was greatly helped by Tariffs from China. Some people just don’t get it!

Keep in mind that Trump and Xi haven't actually spoken – THIS is how the President of the United States of America communicates with the World's second-largest super-power regarding a very delicate issue.  Now that we have China's side of the story, it turns out everything the White House told us on Friday was a lie and there was ZERO progress made at last week's trade talks – which is not surprising as Trump blew them up earlier in the week by suddenly imposing tariffs and threatening China with more tariffs.  According to the WSJ:

By then, though, the U.S. team went into the talks not expecting to do a deal, figuring they would have a “non-meeting,” according to one person briefed on the discussions. U.S. officials at least wanted to make sure they didn’t leave with a complete break. The goal of the meeting was to be able to say the U.S. negotiators were still trying, this person said.

The goal of the meeting was to PRETEND negotiations were going well – that was the GOAL of the meeting – to lie to the American people and to fool market investors into buying stocks based on Government LIES.  Is this really what you voted for?

We're certainly going to re-test last week's lows but I'll be surprised if they hold as we are looking at enough evidence now to support a 10% and possibly even another 20% correction based on the complete breakdown of trade discussions and Trump went full-blown psycho on Saturday, saying China was "badly beaten" and threatening that the deal would be "far worse" for them if they wait until he is re-elected to concede to his trade demands.

I think that China felt they were being beaten so badly in the recent negotiation that they may as well wait around for the next election, 2020, to see if they could get lucky & have a Democrat win – in which case they would continue to rip-off the USA for $500 Billion a year….

….The only problem is that they know I am going to win (best economy & employment numbers in U.S. history, & much more), and the deal will become far worse for them if it has to be negotiated in my second term. Would be wise for them to act now, but love collecting BIG TARIFFS!

Image result for tariff revenue chinaAs I have said since day one of these "trade negotiations", this has never been about making a deal with China but about taxing the poor and middle-class Citizens of THIS country through tariffs, which even Larry Kudlow admitted this weekend was nothing more than a tax on the American people.  When you can't even get Larry Kudlow to back up your BS – your BS must be TOTAL BS!

According to an Oxford Economics estimate, the tariff increase will cost the U.S. economy $62 billion by 2020, breaking down to up to $800 per household.  Unfortunately, it costs the same $800 for the household making $25,000 as it does for households making $25M so it's a very unfair tax on the poor that Trump is using to offset his massive tax cuts to the rich.    

8:30 Update:  Well China has retaliated with 25% tariffs on $60Bn of US Trade Goods AND China has also said they will stop buying ALL us agricultural products if the US doesn't reverse their own tariffs – hitting Trump right in the farm belt.  This is, of course, bad for Friday's Soybean Trade Idea but, as I said at the time, it only works if Trump comes through on his promises and, unfortunately, it turned out he was lying through his teeth on Friday – what a shocker!  

Meanwhile, we still have plenty of earnings to get through and it's very possible likely that the White House will lie to us some more to boost the markets and even more likely that there are still idiots who will believe them and buy the markets back up – so all is not lost but watch those levels (also Friday) for failures that will signal a move down at least 5% more.  

There will be TEN (10) Fed speakers this week along with Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production, the Atlanta Fed, Housing and Business Inventories – and that's just tomorrow!  More housing and the Philly Fed on Thursday and more stuff on Friday – it's a busy week and next week is pre-holiday so no one is going to care at all as we roll into Summer 2019 already!

Be careful out there.

 


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  1. Good Morning!


  2. Good morning!

    What fun this is, we're back to last week's lows but not all red yet:

    • Dow 25,200 is the 5% line and the bounce lines are 25,450 (weak) and 25,700 (strong)  
    • S&P 2,860 is the 5% line and the bounce lines are 2,875 (weak) and 2,890 (strong)
    • Nasdaq 7,475 is the 5% line and the bounce lines are 7,540 (weak) and 7,605 (strong) 
    • Russell 1,550 is the 5% line and the bounce lines are 1,565 (weak) and 1,580 (strong)

    So watch the Dow at the weak bounce line and the RUT at the base line – if those fail – we're likely to leg down another 5% but if they go green – we can pick the laggars to bounce.  

    Now China talking about tariff on LNG!  

    • China will raise tariffs on part of $60B of U.S. goods starting June 1, Bloomberg reports, citing a statement on the Chinese government's website.
    • Some 2,493 goods from the U.S. will see tariffs raised to 25%. Tariffs of 20% will be imposed on 1,078 items, 10% on 974 items, and 5% tariffs to stay on 595 items.
    • Included in the list are batteries, spinach and coffee, the AP reports.
    • U.S. stock average futures fall further, with Nasdaq futures sinking 2.6%, S&P futures -1.9%, and Dow futures -1.8%.
    • The Chinese yuan is down about 0.8% against the U.S. dollar to $0.1454.
    • The announcement comes after President Donald Trump warned that things "will only get worse" for China if they retaliate against the U.S. for increasing tariffs on Chinese goods.
    • Previously: Trump warns China not to retaliate on tariffs (May 13)

    • Auto stocks are down in early trading after China threatens to raise tariffs on $60B worth of U.S. goods starting on June 1. Even if auto tariffs aren't part of the picture, an extension of the trade squabble impacts production and manufacturing decisions within the automobile industry.
    • Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) are down 2.1% in premarket trading. while Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) is off 2.6%. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is 3.0% lower and within striking distance of its 52-week low of $231.13. Honda (NYSE:HMC) and Toyota (NYSE:TM) are both down 1.0%.
    • In Frankfurt trading, Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF) has peeled off 4.9% and BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) is off 3.3%.
      • According to the Global Times (the English version of People's Daily), China could stop buying U.S. agriculture products and trim Boeing (NYSE:BA) orders.
      • More fun: Chinese scholars are talking about how Beijing might begin dumping its massive stash of U.S. Treasury paper (and buy what?).
      • Boeing is down 3.3% in premarket action.

    Not hurting /NG, which is popping past $2.65.  

    • Ocean Power Technologies (NASDAQ:OPTT+8% as PB3 PowerBuoy deployed in the Adriatic Sea has produced more than one MegaWatt-hour cumulative energy to date.

  3. Just a note from Friday that you already had 10 of the INTC 2021 40 Puts in the LTP sold in January.  Does it make more sense to add the call spread now or double up on the puts.  Thanks


  4. hopefully 2800 is bouncy


  5. Had trouble connecting earlier and could not upload the lines!


  6. The agricultural market will be gone for good very soon! China will buy all they need from Brazil and other places and we will left subsidizing farmers forever to plant stuff that no one wants. Another tax on the American people. The incompetence and dishonesty of this administration is quite incredible! 


  7. VIX at 20 – will try to sell more VXX calls!





  8. The irony was missed by Pence when he addressed the Liberty University:

    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/pence-be-ready-media-left-attacks-faith

    “As you go about your daily life, just be ready because you’re going to be asked not just to tolerate things that violate your faith, you’re going to be asked to endorse them. You’re going to be asked to bow down to the idols of the popular culture. … Decide here and now that you’re going to stand firm,” Pence said. “You’ll always be prepared to give a reason for the hope that you have, and you’ll do so with gentleness and respect.”

    I mean wow… That was rich coming from a Trump sycophant!


  9. INTC/LTP, Options – Yes, thanks, I missed those in the LTP.  On Friday, I had said:

    • "So, as  a long-term hold, INTC is great to have in the portfolio but, short-term, don't expect there to be much action.  As a warm-up, I'd certainly consider selling the 2021 $40 puts for $4 to be free money as the net $36 entry would be a gift for a company on track to make $6/share in 5 years.  In fact, we can sell 20 of those in the LTP for $8,000 and 10 in the OOP for $4,000."

    Well I do want to sell 20 of the INTC 2021 $40 puts in the LTP, as I think it's a good floor but we already sold 10 so just 10 more and we sold the first 10 for $4 so the same price, etc. and no, I don't want to jump right into a bull call spread in such an unstable market.

    We sold the first round of short puts on Jan 28th of this year and it's only May 13th – these things take time to play out – be patient!  

    Big Chart – Suddenly everyone is below their 50 dmas. 

    Incompetence/StJ – I sadly don't think they are incompetent.  Putin wins again!  Putin wins every time – they have a perfect record….  Not only will China buy much more from Russia but from Cuba, Venezuela, Iran – anywhere where it unbalances US foreign policy – all over a meaningless trade war started under false premises.  

    MJ Prices/StJ – That's funny as we can get pounds in Oregon for less than $300 at the moment.  There are massive cases of oversupply in some states – especially the ones with few consumers as they can't ship things out of state.  We're considering moving some CBD manufacturing to Oregon as a favor to the Navajos who, in turn, will favor us with distributorships in casinos in 4 states.  Such fun!  

    Oil turned down sharply.  

    Too crazy to bet! 

    /RB still a good bet at the $2 line into the holidays.  /RBN19 (July) is $1.968 – that's the way to go.

    Pence/StJ – Wow!

    God money I'll do anything for you.
    God money just tell me what you want me to
    God money nail me up against the wall. 
    God money don't want everything he wants it all. 
    No you can't take it 
    No you can't take it 
    No you can't take that away from me 
    No you can't take it 
    No you can't take it 
    No you can't take that away from me 
    Head like a hole. 
    Black as your soul. 
    I'd rather die than give you control. 
    Head like a hole. 
    Black as your soul. 
    I'd rather die than give you control. 
    Bow down before the one you serve. 
    You're going to get what you deserve. 
    Bow down before the one you serve. 
    You're going to get what you deserve.

    God money's not looking for the cure. 
    God money's not concerned with the sick among the pure. 
    God money let's go dancing on the backs of the bruised. 
    God money's not one to choose 
    No you can't take it 
    No you can't take it 
    No you can't take that away from me 


  10. Phil, how worried should we be about this anti-trust case against Apple going to the Supreme Court? It could really hurt the services growth narrative, no?


  11. IMO, the biggest worry for AAPL at the moment has to be that trade war! This could impact margins here and sales in China. Neither of them is good news. 


  12. Palotay – Just sold another VXX December 45 call this morning just to take advantage of the price. Going very small at the moment because I think it could get worse. But in case it doesn't, I'll have a toe in the water.


  13. But the court ruled against Apple:

    https://www.engadget.com/2019/05/13/supreme-court-apple-app-store-price-fixing-lawsuit/

    The court agreed with the plaintiffs' assertion that people who buy apps from the App Store are doing so directly from Apple, and as such they aren't prohibited "from suing Apple under the antitrust laws." However, at this stage, the court doesn't "assess the merits of the plaintiffs' antitrust claims against Apple, nor [does it] consider any other defenses Apple might have."

    It's unclear when the lawsuit will go to trial (if Apple doesn't settle first), as it's in its early stages. However, Apple could be on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars in penalties. It may also be forced to reduce its 30 percent commission on app sales or allow consumers to access rival app marketplaces. Engadget has reached out to Apple for comment.


  14. 2020 Presidential Election Calendar




  15. Bitcoin strong.

    GBTC up 20 percent.


  16. albo – sold GBTC out at 10.37, as info


  17. Phil / INTC – and to think I also see my SOXS play in the black! All hail long-term planning!


  18. History rhyming:  Twitter = fiddle, America (or maybe entire world) = Rome, Trump = Nero


  19. /ES – 2802…I'm long with tight stops.


  20. Thanks, BDC !


  21. going long weekly QQQ calls for a snap back


  22. SOXL was over 200 on 4/24. Missed opportunity. Dang it!!!!


  23. AAPL/Palotay – Well they lost a dismissal, not the case.  The issue is whether IPhone users CAN sue AAPL for monopolizing the App Store and charging vendors 30% fees which, in turn, are passed on to the users.  Does that constitute a monopoly when people are free to switch to chrome?  That's all up in the air – all the Supreme Court said is that App USERS have the standing to bring a class action suit – despite the fact that AAPL isn't directly charging them anything.  The strangest thing about this suit is the way Kavanaugh referred to the defense:

    “Apple’s line-drawing does not make a lot of sense, other than as a way to gerrymander Apple out of this and similar lawsuits,” Kavanaugh wrote.

    He seems to be sending a message to the GOP that they'd better not come his way with a redistricting suit as he does not like gerrymandering….

    Apple Supreme Court ruling by on Scribd

    Since we had 10 short July $185 calls in the LTP I'd have to say this is essentially perfect for us.  We also cashed out our long $120 calls over $200 and flipped to 2021 $180 calls (just 20) so we'd be able to roll them lower when AAPL pulled back on whatever nonsense caused them to pull back so, no, I'm not worried – I'm just excited to get a chance to execute our rolls!

    I don't think this is nothing and I do think it's a crimp in long-term service revenue but not much more so than if GOOG eventually announced they would charge less fees and AAPL had to compete – which was inevitable at some point.  Hopefully there will be an oeverreaction but we sold the June 2021 $220 calls so our target had already been hit and our expectations were lower than most because, as Roseanne Roasannadanna has taught us – "it's always something."  

    Image result for roseanne roseannadanna it's always something animated gif

    At the moment, the June 2021 $180 calls are $32 with AAPL down 6% and the $160 calls are $42 and the $140 calls are $57 so $25 for that roll is too much but let's do what we're supposed to do and roll our 20 AAPL June 2021 $180 calls down to 20 June 2021 $160 calls in the LTP for $20 and also in the OOP (also 20 units) and in the butterfly Portfolio (25 units).  And, when we get a chance to go to the $140s for $20 – we'll do that too – that's how we ended up in the 2021 $120 calls we just sold for huge profits!

    AAPL/StJ – True, tariffs much bigger headache at the moment.

    • Apple (AAPL -6%) has opened its push into subscription television, now that Apple TV Channels has gone live.
    • An update to iOS has brought a new TV app to iPhones, iPads and Apple TV to support Apple Channels in more than 100 countries.
    • That will mean subscription access to premium nets including HBO (T -0.7%), Smithsonian Channel and Showtime (CBS -4%), Epix (MGMB -0.8%), Starz (LGF.A -3.7%LGF.B -2.5%) and others. (This is different from Apple TV Plus, which will launch this fall with original programming.)
    • Apple's cut is still a matter of speculation; the company was reported to be pushing for 30%, while some reports have Apple getting 15% of revenues from those who sign up for streaming plans like HBO Now and Netflix through the App Store.

    VXX/StJ – Quite the roller-coaster on the VIX

    BitCoin/Albo – Accepted at Whole Foods and other retailers and if Whole Foods is going to accept, can AMZN be far behind?  Could actually be good for them. 

    SOXS/BDC – Very well-played!  

    Wow, down 730!  Well past 2.5%, we're heading for those 10% drops now.  

    • STP up 22% from Friday but that's only $22,000, not putting a dent in losses so far as LTP falls to $1.25M (up 150%) though it is down another $47,000 from Thursday's check and STP made up half the losses – so it's working correctly.  
    • Butterfly $161,171 from $165,774 
    • OOP $259,999 from $277,872
    • MTP $110,663 from $120,923

    I really have to go with my gut when I get these feelings to cash out.  It's not terrible but why lose money just to avoid the hassle of cashing everything in?

    Longs/Buckey, BDC – I'd want to see them cross back over the -2.5% lines (25,300 in the Dow is one, 2,815 on /ES is another).  The Nas and RUT are down 3.6%.  Fortunately, those are our primary hedges!


  24. Sorry, very bad math on the AAPL trade – I meant it was $10 to roll from the $180s to the $160s and $15 to roll to the $140s so the $20 roll for $10 (to the $160s) made sense but no point in spending $15 more for another $10 but, IF we can roll from the $160s to the $140s for $10 (not $20!), then we will do that roll down the line.


  25. Phil

    What would be good for a new AAPL trade  ?

    Thanks


  26. "And that's why we went public and took all your money:"

    • Uber (UBER -11.2%) CEO Dara Khosrowshahi sends an email to employees saying  "obviously our stock did not trade as well as we had hoped post-IPO. Today is another tough day in the market, and I expect the same as it relates to our stock."
    • The exec warns he doesn't expect sentiment to change overnight, and he expects "some tough public market times over the coming months."
    • But Khosrowshahi advises keeping an eye on long-term value with Uber having "all the capital we need to demonstrate a path to improved margins and profits."
    • Source: Bloomberg News, which saw the email.
    • China is often a sizable buyer of U.S. soybeans, but the escalating trade war could mean the exit of that bid. Bean prices at the CBOT are down another 1.4% today, and below $8 per bushel for the first time since 2008.
    • On top of that is a major swine fever outbreak in Asia, meaning smaller herds, meaning less demand for feed.
    • Related ETFs: SOYBOTCPK:JJGTFGRU
    • Related stocks: Archer-Daniel Midland (ADM -4.3%), Bunge (BG -2.7%)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS -3.7%applies for a banking license in Tokyo as part of its plan to start a global cash management business later this year, the Financial Times reports, citing people familiar with the situation.
    • So far, Goldman only has banking licenses in the U.K., Germany, the U.S., and Hong Kong.
    • Meanwhile the industry's giants--JPMorgan, Citigroup, and HSBC--have extensive networks around the globe.
    • Goldman plans to operate the cash management business through a combinations of banking licenses and correspondent banking relationships, where it would use a local bank as a conduit to receive cash in markets where it doesn't have its own licenses
    • Gogo (GOGO +1.7%) has won selection from Pilatus to install its latest in-flight connectivity tech on an single-engine turboprop for the first time.
    • Pilatus chose Gogo's AVANCE L3 as a factory option for its PC-12 NG aircraft.
    • That will mark the first time passengers on a PC-12 NG will have access to Gogo Vision and its movies and TV programs.
    • The AVANCE L3 is optimized for small, lighter-weight installs at an affordable price point.
    • Previously: Hot-handed Gogo wins another sell-side fan (May. 13 2019)
    • China's retaliation this morning against boosted U.S. tariffs from last week has sent the major averages sharply lower, with the S&P 500 down 2.3%.
    • Those most affected by the trade spat – think industrials and ag-related names – are leading the selloff: Boeing is lower by 4.1%, Deere is off 6.2%, for example.
    • The banks are getting beat up as well, with the XLF down 2.5%, and the KRE down 3%.
    • Individual players: Bank of America (BAC -3.9%), Citigroup (C -4.4%), JPMorgan (JPM -2.3%), Goldman Sachs (GS -3.5%), Morgan Stanley (MS -3.7%), Wells Fargo (WFC -1.1%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -2.1%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.9%), Regions Financial (RF -3.7%), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN -3.5%).
    • GoPro (PRO -1.8%) reiterates its plans to move most of its U.S. bound production out of China, while maintaining production in China for non-U.S. bound cameras.
    • The company plans to begin production in Guadalajara, Mexico of its U.S. bound cameras next month.
    • "Our decision to move most of our U.S. bound production to Mexico supports our goal to insulate us against possible tariffs as well as recognize some cost savings and efficiencies," says CFO Brian McGee.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Major TV network owners are making moves on addressable advertising, a $2B market ripe for tapping now that technology has advanced to enable showing different ads to people watching the same program.
    • Viacom (VIA -4.7%VIA -5%), CBS (CBS -4.2%) and Fox (FOX -1.7%FOXA -1.6%) are in talks with distributors to begin selling a small part of national commercial time as targeted ads, the WSJ notes.
    • That's a small effort so far, but the advent of streaming services and the rise of Google and Facebook as ad giants have built a world where addressable advertising is becoming a marketing expectation.
    • The networks sell most of their ad time (about 14 minutes per hour) to marketers running non-addressable advertising; while distributors like Dish Network (DISH -3.7%) and Comcast (CMCSA -2.2%) are using their two minutes per hour to target ads at specific ZIP codes and even households based on data attributes.
    • Addressable-ad spending is expected to top $2.5B in 2019 (3.7% of total TV ad spending).

    That last one is good for Engaging Choice, which used to be called FUNN Networks that PSWI owns about 10% of.  This is exactly what our program does and we are talking to the networks about using it to channel ads to the right people.  


  27. AAPL/QC – I'd just drop our spread down $20 so, as a new trade on AAPL I like:

    • Sell 5 June 2021 $170 puts for $20 ($10,000) 
    • Buy 10 June 2021 $160 calls for $42.50 ($42,500) 
    • Sell 10 June 2021 $200 calls for $23.50 ($23,500)

    That's net $9,000 on the $40,000 spread that's $26,000 in the money with an upside potential of $31,000 (344%) at $200 in 2 years.  The margin on the short puts is about $10,000 and you have to be able to ride out a 100% loss if AAPL takes a 10% dive from here so think very carefully about that part as the trade makes a nice double without that additional risk or margin.  Also, it would be foolish to be in this spread and not be able to roll down to the $140 calls for $10 if that opportunity comes up – so keep that in mind as well. 

      /YM just getting back to 25,300 – if it gets over then that's a good line to play long with VERY tight stops below.  Same goes for 2,815 on /ES and we're lined up with 7,350 on /NQ and 1,530 on /RTY – if they aren't all breaking up – it's probably not a good long.


  28. everytime the indexes try and head up abit the  dollar goes up and whack a moles them


  29. I think you mentioned Soybeans trade last week. 

    Just wanted to point out i read an article today that was describing how the the current swine flu epidemic in China is effecting soybean imports as that is one of the main sources of pig feed in China (and it's being estimated that approx half the pigs in China may have been wiped out by this disease)


  30. That's because they push the Dollar down to try to keep the indexes from falling but it's artificial so, eventually, it pushes back – whether or not the lower Dollar had the effect they wanted.  

    No louck on our index longs – looking pretty sad at the moment.  Might have to do some serious charting tomorrow, looking at the potential 10% drop. 

    We're almost at the point where we should add more hedges but it's Monday and we can't count on anything to stick.

    Soybeans/Crs – Yes, there is that but now it's really about China telling us to suck it and they are simply not going to buy US beans anymore – they are our main customer!  

    Image result for u.s. soybean exports by country 2018

    It's not smart to play hardball with someone who has your balls in a vice!  

    We sell about $15Bn in soybeans to China.  Trump has promised to subsidize the farmers, even though that's SOCIALISM – so we'll see what happens.

    China also said they are going to cancel airplane orders from BA too:

    Just remember – all these companies were doing just fine before Trump F'd things up!


  31. Oh wait, there we go, just took a bit to come off our line but good for 50 points already so just set stops at 25 and keep running them up as the index goes higher. 


  32. Just inching up and don't forget, down 2% would be a weak bounce from down 2.5% and we're still down 2.3% so – BAD!  

    /RBN19 at $1.93 is my favorite play at the moment with the holiday next weekend.  Very unlikely we don't get a pop and it's 0.03 lower than the front-month /RB.


  33. Going back down again… Looks like Trump is doing his best to mess up an economy that was doing OK until he decided (with some help with his enablers in Congress) to try to mixed voodoo stuff – lower tax rates, higher tariffs, etc. They could not leave well alone.


  34. On top of Trump, looks like our love affair with retail is going to end in a messy divorce. I think this next bounce might be real. 


  35. That was an ugly finish below the 2.5% line – hopefully we at least bounce back a bit tomorrow or we'll have to slap some more hedges on in preparation for the next 5% drop.  


  36. more red into the close, even AH, so not good


  37. You can give Walmart $100 so they can give you back $2 a year in divs, and what happens when their "chinese-junk-on-wheels" business model slams into Dump's $300B tariff nonsense. Hmmm. Teeing up an earnings play here.



  38. Pstas – I couldn't agree more !

    Bloody, but undeterred. 8-)


  39. BTW   The Jan 21 $10 calls closed at $2.14.  Very cheap, IMHO.


  40. You do need faith with these telcos!


  41. STJ, you are so right.  

     

    CTL Director Steven Clontz bought 37K shares worth ~$400K (transaction date 5/10)

    Mr Clontz has been a frequent insider buyer beginning last May at 19.

    Just a reminder, Southeastern Asset Management owner of 6% of the shares believe they are worth  about $30 per share.  Doesn't make them right, but at $10-11, I believe it's very under priced.




  42. The Fusion Reactor Next Door


  43. Good morning!

    Up about 150 so far as Trump assures us he'll meet with Xi at the G20 but of course that's BS as the whole point of the G20 is to meet with each other so it's not like anyone is going out of their way and it's 6 weeks from now so — ridiculous.  Also, Trump's pushing ahead with new tariffs:

    U.S. Readies New Tariffs as Trump Says He'll Meet China's Xi

    US Posts Full Details Of Tariffs On Remaining $300 Billion In Chinese Trade.

    In one year Tariffs have rebuilt our Steel Industry – it is booming! We placed a 25% Tariff on “dumped” steel from China & other countries, and we now have a big and growing industry. We had to save Steel for our defense and auto industries, both of which are coming back strong!

    China buys MUCH less from us than we buy from them, by almost 500 Billion Dollars, so we are in a fantastic position. Make your product at home in the USA and there is no Tariff. You can also buy from a non-Tariffed country instead of China. Many companies are leaving China…..

    ….so that they will be more competitive for USA buyers. We are now a much bigger economy than China, and have substantially increased in size since the great 2016 Election. We are the “piggy bank” that everyone wants to raid and take advantage of. NO MORE!

    We can make a deal with China tomorrow, before their companies start leaving so as not to lose USA business, but the last time we were close they wanted to renegotiate the deal. No way! We are in a much better position now than any deal we could have made. Will be taking in…..

    Billions of Dollars, and moving jobs back to the USA where they belong. Other countries are already negotiating with us because they don’t want this to happen to them. They must be a part of USA action. This should have been done by our leaders many years ago. Enjoy!

    See, it's all about "taking in Billions of Dollars" for him – that's all he cares about and he BS's the rest to justify it.  Enjoy!

    Oil and Gas are coming back a bit – of course /BZ bounced off $70 – you don't need me to tell you to play that!  /RB is back at $1.95, where I have 2 and I do expect $2.05 by the holiday so it's still a nice gain ($4,200/contract) if I'm right.

    Honey badger don't care:

    Woo-hoo on /ZSU19, now up $5 at $830 after being down to $805 at $100/$1 that was down $1,500 and I was going to DD at $800 but never hit that.

    /HG is attractive to play for a bounce.  It COULD go lower but I very much doubt it stays below $2.75 for the long run and a China deal would put us back over $2.80 at $250 per penny.  /HGN19 is the same July time-frame as Soy and I think either we have a trade deal or it's long baked-in that we don't by then and things will normalize a bit.  

    In Latest Roundup Defeat for Bayer, Couple Awarded $2 Billion.

    Dow losers since the trade war escalated show investors fleeing companies with China business.

    Junk-Bond Issuance Soars As Companies Scramble To Lock In Lowest-Possible Rates. 

    Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Bid As Trade Turmoil Trounces Stocks. 

    TLT is getting interesting again at $126.  $130 is my usual shorting line but we haven't hit that for years so maybe $126 is worth a toss?  In the STP, let's add:

    • Buy 20 TLT Sept $129 puts for $5 ($10,000) 
    • Sell 20 TLT Sept $125 puts for $2.50 ($5,000) 

    That's net $5,000 on the $8,000 spread so $3,000 (60%) profit potential but we are likely to roll this one to build it up over time unless it just goes out way right away, in which case 60% in 4 months doesn't suck.